House Overview – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 23, 2025

House

Today, we continue our House Overview analysis, this time of districts in Florida through Michigan. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Florida

FL-6 — New Congressman Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) won his seat in the April 1 special election with 56.7 percent of the vote. Fine, who was badly outspent in the irregular election campaign, still won comfortably even though polling suggested a much closer outcome.

Despite national Republican concern that Fine might be upset, he actually outperformed his predecessor’s initial 6th District election, current National Security Advisor Mike Waltz (R). In 2018, Waltz recorded a result that was half a percentage point lower than that of Fine.

Seeing the end result, Rep. Fine should have little problem securing a full term next year in a 6th District that carries a partisan lean of 60.8R – 37.4D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians.

Georgia

GOP Delegation — The House Republican picture is figuratively suspended until Gov. Brian Kemp (R) decides whether he will run for the Senate. If Gov. Kemp passes on a Senate run, then it is likely that all or some of the following Republican House members could declare a Senate candidacy: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). These members all moving toward a statewide campaign could force the Georgia GOP to defend as many as four open seats in 2026.

GA-13 — Due to health reasons, veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) is a retirement prospect, even though the Congressman indicates he will seek re-election. If so, Scott will face major Democratic primary competition. At this point, state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D) are both announced candidates.

Georgia is a runoff state, and with several high level contenders competing, forcing a July runoff from the scheduled May primary is a distinct possibility. Against much weaker Democratic opposition in 2020, Rep. Scott only managed to obtain 52.9 percent of the partisan vote.

Iowa

IA-1 — Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) was re-elected in November with only a 799-vote margin making this the third closest House campaign in the country. So far, the challenger who held Rep. Miller-Meeks to her close victory, former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D), has not yet stated whether she will return for a re-match.

One person who has announced, however, is 2024 GOP congressional candidate David Pautsch. Holding the Congresswoman to a 56 percent Republican primary win without spending any money on his campaign certainly signaled weakness for Miller-Meeks. Pautsch is running again this year and promises to put forth a stronger campaign effort. In the first quarter, however, he only raised $4,000.

The tight partisan nature of the 1st District again will yield another close congressional race in 2026 irrespective of who ultimately runs. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean finds a 50.0R – 46.7D split.

IA-2 — Three-term Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) has won a trio of strong victories against credible Democratic opponents in a politically marginal CD. Hinson has already drawn another competitive challenger for 2026. Former US Attorney Kevin Techau (D) announced his candidacy just last week.

The Congresswoman has averaged 54.1 percent of the vote in her three campaigns including defeating then incumbent Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) in 2020. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation for the 2nd District is 51.4R – 45.3D.

Kentucky

KY-6 — Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) running for the state’s open Senate seat means we will see a hotly contested open Republican primary followed by what could be a competitive general election. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the KY-6 CD is 51.8R – 46.1D suggesting a tight general election assuming the Democrats field a strong candidate. Individuals from both parties will soon be announcing their candidacies.

Louisiana

LA-6 — Louisiana Rep. Cleo Fields (D-Baton Rouge) first won his congressional seat in 1992 and was re-elected two years later. Before the 1996 election, however, his district was declared unconstitutional, and he did not seek re-election. In 2023, a new redistricting map awarded Fields another chance to run for Congress and he successfully returned to the House after an absence of 28 years. Rep. Fields spent much of his time between congressional terms as a member of the Louisiana state Senate.

Now, however, redistricting again may send him to the political bench. Since his current seat is virtually identical to the one declared illegal almost three decades ago, the US Supreme Court will make a final decision. The high court heard oral arguments on the Louisiana redistricting case in March and will rule before the end of June. Their decision will have a major effect upon the 2026 Louisiana congressional contests.

Maine

ME-2 — Though President Trump has carried Maine’s 2nd Congressional District in all three of his national elections, Democratic Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) still managed to win in both 2020 and 2024 despite the partisan tide against him at the top of the ticket. In 2024, Rep. Golden’s victory margin over retired NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R) dropped to seven-tenths of a percentage point, his smallest edge since originally winning through Ranked Choice Voting in 2018.

Rumors abound that Rep. Golden will run for Governor, but the Congressman has so far been noncommittal. He has not ruled out a gubernatorial bid to replace retiring Governor Janet Mills – appointed Secretary of State Shenna Bellows is the only announced Democratic candidate to date – nor re-election or even retiring from elective politics. Golden has indicated, however, that he would not challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), of whose staff he was once a member.

Theriault says he will seek a re-match next year. Former Gov. Paul LePage (R) has also expressed interest in running. Regardless of who becomes the general election nominees, this race will be competitive in 2026.

Michigan

MI-4 — Michigan’s southwestern congressional district is not as safe for Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) as his pre-redistricting 2nd CD, but the new 4th is still comfortably Republican. Huizenga defeated attorney Jessica Swartz (D) 55-43 percent in November. She will return for a re-match next year, but the Democrats are looking for a stronger candidate. Cybersecurity professional Richard Aaron (D) is also an announced contender. Additionally, Rep. Huizenga is reportedly considering a Senate bid. The seat could become highly competitive if open.

MI-8 — Freshman Michigan US Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) defeated frequent congressional candidate Paul Junge (R), 51-45 percent, in an expensive open seat campaign. She was mentioned as a potential 2026 Senate candidate but recently announced that she will seek re-election next year.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.0D – 46.2R partisan lean for the district that includes the cities of Flint, Midland, Bay City, and Saginaw. Rep. Rivet will be favored for re-election, but the Republicans will likely field a stronger candidate in 2026 than the thrice-failed MJunge.

MI-10 — Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) is running for Governor, so the politically marginal 10th District will be open in the 2026 election. Already, three Democrats have announced: 2024 Macomb County DA candidate Christina Hines, Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, and ex-congressional aide Alex Hawkins. Retired judge Carl Marlinga, who held Rep. James to two close victories, will not return in 2026. He has publicly endorsed Hines. Surprisingly, no Republican candidate has yet come forward.

The 2026 election cycle will again host a highly competitive campaign in this Detroit suburban CD, and this will be one of the top Democratic conversion opportunities in the country. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians find a 49.5D – 47.9R partisan lean suggesting an open seat race will deliver another close finish.

MI-11 — Incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) will reportedly soon announce her Senate candidacy, thus also leaving this seat open for 2026. Because Michigan lost a congressional seat in 2020 reapportionment, she and fellow Democrat Andy Levin were paired in one district.

Rep. Stevens convincingly won the 2022 party primary, and the succeeding general election in what is now a safely Democratic district. She was re-elected in November with 58 percent of the vote. In an open seat configuration, we can expect a very competitive Democratic primary. Levin is viewed as a possible contender. The former Congressman has not ruled out a comeback bid.

MI-13 — Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) has won two tough Democratic primaries, which is tantamount to election in the Detroit anchored CD-13. In 2024, Rep. Thanedar defeated Detroit City Council at-large member and former state Rep. Mary Waters in the Democratic primary. In 2022, Thanedar, then a state Representative, defeated then-state Sen. Adam Hollier 28-23 percent. Hollier attempted to run again in 2024 but failed to qualify for the ballot due to submitting insufficient petition signatures. Hollier has already announced he will run again in 2026.

This district will again host a competitive Democratic primary, but Rep. Thanedar’s incumbency and substantial personal wealth gives him the inside track toward winning renomination and re-election.

House Overview – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 22, 2025

House

Already we have seen developments occur in key 2026 House election cycle campaigns. Over the next four days, we will recap the action. Today, we look at districts in Alaska through Colorado; tomorrow, Florida to Minnesota. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

At this point, it appears there are 49 races in the competitive category. Republicans currently hold 26 of the seats and Democrats 23. Therefore, we can expect another tight election cycle.

Alaska

AK-AL — While polling again suggests another dead heat race for at-large freshman Rep. Nick Begich, III (R-Chugiak) if former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) were to return for a re-match, it appears such a contest will not materialize. It is highly likely that Peltola will enter the state’s open Governor’s race.

Arizona

AZ-1 — In November, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) defeated state Rep. Amish Shah (D) 52-48 percent. Already, Dr. Shah, former news anchor and 2024 congressional candidate Marlene Galen-Woods (D), and businessman Jonathan Treble (D) have announced their candidacies. A competitive Democratic primary and general election is on the horizon for this Maricopa County congressional seat.

AZ-6 — Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) again defeated former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) and did so with a 50-47 percent margin. Engel stated that she will not return for a third congressional race. Retired Marine Corps Sergeant JoAnna Mendoza (D) has already raised over $800,000 for her announced campaign. She reports over $726,000 cash-on-hand, while Rep. Ciscomani posts over $1.2 million in his campaign account. This will again be a highly competitive national congressional campaign.

AZ-7 — The special general election to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) is scheduled for Sept. 23. The determinative battle, however, will be the July 15 Democratic primary. Though five candidates have filed for the party primary, the race is realistically between Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, the late Congressman’s daughter, and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. This district will not be competitive in the 2026 regular election.

California

CA-3 — Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) was re-elected to a second term with 55 percent of the vote in November. He has drawn a significant Democratic opponent for 2026. Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall (D) announced that she will enter the ’26 campaign. Her constituency represents approximately 15 percent of the district population.

CA-9 — Rep. Josh Harder (D-Tracy) defeated Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) by a slight 52-48 percent margin in 2024. Lincoln says he is considering returning for a re-match but has not yet announced his 2026 candidacy. Rep. Harder already reports over $2.2 million in his campaign war chest.

CA-13 — This district hosted the closest House race in the entire country last year, as now-Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) defeated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes. Republicans appear to have their act together for 2026. They have recruited Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez (R) into the developing contest. Duarte has already announced that he will not return for a re-match and endorsed Lopez. Rep. Gray had a weak 1st Quarter from a fundraising perspective. He posts only $344,000 in his campaign account.

CA-22 — Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) represents the most Democratic seat in the nation to elect a Republican to the House. In November, he again defeated former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D), this time, 53-47 percent. Salas may return for a third run but has not yet announced his intentions. Visalia School Board Trustee Randy Villegas (D) is a declared candidate and says he will remain in the race irrespective of what Salas decides. In 2026, this will again be a top national congressional campaign.

CA-41 — The Inland Empire will again feature a competitive race for 17-term Congressman Ken Calvert (R-Corona), but he will have a different general election opponent. Democratic former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, who ran two close races against the veteran Congressman, has already announced that he will not return for a third run. Democrats have recruited Grammy Award winning musician Tim Myers in his place.

CA-45 — Freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) defeated then-Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by just 683 votes, making it the second-closest congressional race in the country. Steel immediately filed a 2026 FEC committee upon her defeat but only raised a little over $74,000 in the 1st Quarter. She has over $942,000 in her campaign account, however. Therefore, we are likely to see another highly competitive Tran-Steel contest here in 2026. For his part, Rep. Tran posted just over $547,000 in his campaign committee.

CA-49 — Four-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) defeated Republican Matt Gunderson 52-48 percent in November but is likely to face a stronger opponent in 2026. San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) is an announced candidate and only one of two Republican US House challengers nationwide to raise over $400,000 in the 1st Quarter. Though the Orange County candidates have dominated this district in recent elections, San Diego County holds two-thirds of the CD’s residents. Therefore, this should be a race to watch in 2026.

Colorado

CO-8 — The politically marginal 8th District of Colorado that lies north and east of Denver will perennially be on the competitive House race list. In 2022, Democrat Yadira Caraveo won the seat with 48 percent of the vote. In 2024, Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans unseated her with 49 percent. Another tough race is in store for what will always be a vulnerable incumbent.

Caraveo has announced she will return for a rematch but must first get past state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) to secure the party nomination. Rutinel posted impressive fundraising numbers in the 1st Quarter, attracting more than $1.2 million in support. Therefore, we can expect to see a hot Democratic primary and general election here in 2026.

Q1 Money

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 21, 2025

The first quarter 2025 campaign financial disclosure reports are now public, and the totals reveal interesting individual candidate information.

The Down Ballot political blog statisticians compiled the figures from the Federal Election Commission filings and released the data report for all Senate and House early contenders.

Senate

A total of 41 Senate reports were filed at the April 15 deadline, 31 of which are from incumbent members currently seeking re-election. The four Senators who have announced they will not run for re-election, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), are not listed in the report.

The top Senate fundraiser for the 1st Quarter is Georgia’s Jon Ossoff (D), who will face a tough re-election campaign. He raised $11.1 million and holds $11.08 million in his campaign account. It is possible that Gov. Brian Kemp (R), ineligible to run for a third term, may challenge Sen. Ossoff.

If the Governor declines a Senate bid, Ossoff will likely face one of his colleagues from the House, either Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), or Mike Collins (R-Jackson). Each has said they would have interest in running for the Senate should Gov. Kemp decide not to enter the race.

In addition to Ossoff, the Senators raising the most money in the first quarter were Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA) with $2.83 million, Thom Tillis (R-NC) $2.24 million, Cory Booker (D-NJ) $1.56 million, and John Cornyn (R-TX) $1.54 million.

Sen. Warner is preparing for a possible challenge from Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) and Sen. Tillis may face an electoral battle with former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), while Sen. Cornyn is facing a Republican primary challenge with Attorney General Ken Paxton and possibly Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), among others. Sen. Booker will have an easy ride to re-election next year, but his heavy activity could be a clue that he is preparing another presidential run.

A key point from the report comes from Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL). He has not yet said if he will seek a sixth term next year. Age is an issue because he will turn 82 just after the 2026 election. The fact that Sen. Durbin raised only $42,000 during the entire 1st quarter when the incumbent average for the period was $1.18 million suggests we may see another retirement announcement soon forthcoming.

House

In House reporting, 462 presumed candidates filed disclosure statements. The aggregate House money raised for the 1st Quarter 2025 was $177,248,000 for a mean average of $383,653 per unit.

This number actually skews high because 31 House candidates, 28 of whom are incumbents, each raised over $1 million for the quarter. The most well-known House members did the best.

The top quarter fundraiser was Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) with a huge $9.55 million obtained. In fact, despite being in the minority, Democratic candidates were the top three first quarter fundraisers. Following Ocasio-Cortez are Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) with $3.7 million raised with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) closely behind posting $3.6 million in receipts.

Not surprisingly, the top Republican was House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) who gathered $3.23 million. The two other top GOP fundraisers were also conference leaders, Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) with dollar totals of $2.43 million and $1.98 million.

Three non-incumbents were in the $1 million-plus club for the first quarter, and they, too, are Democrats. New York candidate Blake Gendebien raised $3.05 million in preparation for an anticipated special election to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), but such a vote will not occur this year as her nomination to the United Nations was withdrawn. Gendebien can be expected to run in the 2026 general election, however, particularly if Rep. Stefanik decides to enter the New York Governor’s campaign.

Colorado candidate Manny Rutinel and Wisconsin’s Rebecca Cooke also topped $1 million in gross receipts, but it appears they will have to spend much of their money against other Democrats. Each is being challenged for the party nomination in CO-8 and WI-3 to oppose Reps. Gabe Evans (R-CO) and Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), respectively.

Perhaps the bigger surprise of the fundraising quarter is how much money the most aggressive incumbents have in the bank. The average cash-on-hand figure for the 31 individuals in the million-plus club is $3.75 million. This number, however, is skewed by the four members with the most in their campaign committee accounts.

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) has the most cash at $19.5 million on hand. He has so much largely because Sen. Dick Durbin (D) may retire, and the Congressman is a virtual certain contender to run for an open Senate seat. The other three are: Reps. Khanna ($13.4 million), Ritchie Torres (D-NY) who may run for Governor ($12.85 million), and Ocasio-Cortez ($8.3 million).

Together, these four members hold 46.4 percent of the total cash-on-hand of the 31 top House fundraisers. The average cash-on-hand figure for the other 27 is $2.31 million.

Stefanik Eyes Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 18, 2025

Governor

New York US Rep. Elise Stefanik /
Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

The Politico publication ran a story Wednesday reporting that New York US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) is being courted to run for Governor, and she’s apparently considering the move.

Rep. Stefanik, originally appointed as US Ambassador to the United Nations but then pulled back when it appeared Republicans could lose her Upstate New York House seat in a special election, was subsequently appointed as Chair of the House Republican Leadership. In this position, she coordinates between the elected leadership and the Conference members. It was created for her as a consolation, if you will, for having her UN nomination pulled back, especially when Senate confirmation was virtually assured.

Now, discussion of her running for Governor comes into focus from what is her decidedly blue home state. The last time a Republican won the New York Governorship occurred when then-Gov. George Pataki clinched a third term in 2006. Prior to Pataki’s tenure, one must return to 1970 to see a Republican, Nelson Rockefeller for the fourth time, elected as New York’s Governor.

It is clear that Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is vulnerable, but could Stefanik, or any Republican, beat her? In 2022, then-US Representative and now EPA Administrator in the Trump Administration Lee Zeldin performed well, especially on his native Long Island, but lost statewide 53-47 percent. Still, this was the best Republican gubernatorial performance since then-Gov. Pataki’s final victory in 2006.

On the negative side, the Governor’s favorability numbers have been upside-down for at least part of her tenure. Gov. Hochul assumed office in August 2021 from her Lieutenant Governor’s position after then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) was forced to resign because of a personal scandal. Hochul was then elected in her own right in 2022, defeating Zeldin as mentioned above.

The latest published Hochul favorability rating comes from Siena College, in an early March poll conducted through live interviews over the month’s 2nd through 6th period from a sampling universe of 806 registered New York voters. According to this survey, the Governor’s personal favorability index was 40:50 percent positive to negative. Among the 395 tested Democrats, her ratio is 59:34 percent, which is low for an incumbent within his or her own party.

In addition to facing what should be a competitive general election, Gov. Hochul will apparently be forced to fight for renomination. It is possible that both Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) could launch primary challenges against the Governor.

The Siena College poll tested a potential Democratic primary and found the Governor leading both Delgado and Torres, 46-11-10 percent. This result is similar to a Data for Progress survey conducted later in the month (March 26-31; 767 likely New York Democratic primary voters; online) that saw a 51-11-11 percent ballot test response, again in Gov. Hochul’s favor.

Still, these numbers are not particularly impressive for a sitting Governor in her own party primary. Her best case scenario would be if both men entered the race. That way, the anti-Hochul vote would be split between two candidates, which would allow the Governor to win renomination with a lower percentage.

Of her two potential Democratic opponents, Delgado appears the more likely to run. Even though Hochul chose him as her running mate for the 2022 election, Delgado says he will not appear with her in the coming election.

On the Republican side, in addition to Rep. Stefanik apparently being interested, US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) had long been touted as a possible gubernatorial candidate. Assuming that Stefanik enters the Governor’s race and obtains a Trump endorsement, which is likely, Rep. Lawler would be a clear underdog for the party nomination. Under this scenario, his best option would likely be to seek re-election in his 17th Congressional District.

Though Gov. Hochul appears to currently be in a weakened political position, it is probable that she will ultimately be favored to win the Democratic nomination and, in the end, the succeeding general election.

Republicans may be showing more competitive signs in New York — in November, President Donald Trump improved his 2020 performance by more than 11 percentage points, the highest increase of any state — but the party is still a long way from knocking on the door of an Empire State major victory.

Rogers Announces for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 17, 2025

Senate

Former Michigan Congressman Mike Rogers (R)

Republicans now have a top-tier US Senate candidate to compete for the open Michigan seat.

Former seven-term US Rep. Mike Rogers (R), who rose to chair the House Intelligence Committee and came within 19,006 votes of upsetting now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in November, announced that he will return in 2026 to compete for the state’s second open Senate seat in consecutive election cycles.

In the 2024 general election, Rogers defied the polling that predicted a more comfortable victory for then-Rep. Slotkin. He also was at a major fundraising disadvantage, a problem he won’t likely face in this campaign.

Immediately, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Tim Scott (R-SC) endorsed Rogers.

On the other hand, US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) confirms he is considering a Senate bid and will decide about running later in the year. Huizenga flirted with a statewide run before but ultimately backed away.

For the Democrats, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) is an announced Senate candidate. US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) is sending signals that she will soon enter the race, as is Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Former state House Speaker Joe Tate and term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel are possible candidates. Former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who was leading in early Senate polling, last month announced that he would not enter the race.

The open Michigan Senate race with incumbent Gary Peters (D) retiring promises to be one of the top 2026 US Senate campaigns.

The Wolverine State has a long history of electing Democrats to the Senate, and the GOP’s path to victory remains difficult despite coming close to winning in November. Since the 1954 election, only two Republicans have won Senate elections: Robert Griffin who lost his seat in 1978 to Democrat Carl Levin who would go onto win five additional terms, and Spence Abraham who won in 1994 but lost to Democrat Debbie Stabenow in 2000. Sen. Stabenow served until she retired in the last cycle.

Michigan, for the first time in the modern political era, will feature an open Governor and open Senate race in the same election cycle. For a Republican to win either of these 2026 statewide campaigns, they will have to perform as well as President Donald Trump did in 2024.

In November, the President carried 74 of Michigan’s 83 counties but still lost all of the populous metro entities. Therefore, the eventual GOP nominees for Senate, presumably Rogers, and Governor, presumably James, must also do as well as President Trump in the metro counties. Statewide, he defeated then-Vice President Kamala Harris, 49.7 – 48.3 percent, a margin of 80,103 votes.

The Trump urban/metro benchmark percentages are 47.2 (Genesee County-Flint), 34.1 (Ingham County-Lansing), 40.3 (Kalamazoo County), 46.4 (Kent County-Grand Rapids), 45.4 (Leelanau County-Traverse City), 44.8 (Marquette County-Upper Peninsula), 43.7 (Oakland County-Detroit Metro), 26.6 (Washtenaw County-Ann Arbor), and 33.7 (Wayne County-Detroit and Dearborn).

Considering the three-way split in the Governor’s race, it will likely be easier for the Republican nominee to win here because Mayor Duggan, who will be a significant Independent candidate, is likely to take a major chunk of Wayne County votes away from the Democratic nominee.

Perhaps the only clear point about the 2026 Michigan election cycle is the political analysis world will be paying a great deal of attention to its happenings from beginning to end.

Colorado Action

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Governor

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D)

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

US Sen. Michael Bennet (D), as expected, formally announced his intention to run for Governor next year. Since he was re-elected to a six-year term in 2022, he does not have to risk his Senate seat to run for Governor. Should he be elected, Sen. Bennet would then appoint his own successor.

While his presence in the Governor’s race dissuaded US Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) and Jason Crow (D-Aurora) from running statewide (they both have endorsed Sen. Bennet), Attorney General Phil Reiser (D), who was the first to announce for Governor, is committed to remaining in the race. He says that Bennet should remain in the Senate at the very time more Democratic voices are needed in Washington.

Another potential gubernatorial candidate has decided to run for a different office. Secretary of State Jena Griswold (D), who was expected to become a gubernatorial candidate, instead announced for Attorney General largely in anticipation of Bennet running for Governor. Conversely, former Attorney General, US Senator, US Interior Secretary, and US Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar (D) said he is still interested in a potential Governor’s bid, noting that he has previously held both Bennet’s and Reiser’s current positions.

The Democratic nomination process looks to be the major battle to replace term-limited Gov. Jared Polis (D). In Colorado, the parties hold a nominating assembly prior to the statewide primary election. Candidates can qualify for the primary ballot by obtaining 30 percent of the convention delegates’ support, or they can petition onto the ballot through a signature gathering process.

Candidates can both participate in the assembly and submit petitions. It will be interesting to see if any of the contenders adhere only to the convention process, i.e., meaning they will end their campaigns if they don’t obtain the required number of delegate votes to advance into the general election. This does happen, but most who participate in the assembly also submit petitions unless they are fully confident of obtaining the necessary delegate votes.

With Colorado now basically cemented as a Democratic state, the eventual GOP nominee has much work to do just to prove he or she will be a viable candidate in the general election.

Announced Republican gubernatorial contenders are state Sen. Mark Baisley (R-Salida), state Rep. Scott Bottoms (R-Colorado Springs), and Teller County Sheriff Jason Mikesell. Others are expected to join.

The candidate filing deadline and nominating assembly will both occur next April. The statewide primary will likely be set for June 24, 2026.

CO-8

Though Democratic state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) has already raised over $1 million in his early campaign to challenge 8th District freshman US Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton), former Congresswoman Yadira Caraveo (D), who lost to Evans in November, is indicating she will return for a comeback.

Though Rutinel has already proven to be a strong fundraiser, he will now have to spend a great deal of that money just to win the party nomination. Therefore, the person benefiting the most from a Caraveo-Rutinel primary confrontation will be Rep. Evans.

It will be very interesting to see if either Caraveo or Rutinel would pledge not to force a primary if one or the other fails to gain the requisite delegate support from the nominating assembly to secure an election ballot line. If so, the eventual nominee would be able to avoid a potentially divisive and expensive primary. At the outset, it appears likely that both candidates would attract at least 30 percent of the assembly delegates’ support, the minimum number necessary to advance.

The 8th District lies north and east of Denver and contains the Greeley, Thurston, and Westminster communities. It was designed as a competitive seat and has certainly performed in such a manner.

The district’s first two election victors, Caraveo and Evans, won the seat with 48 and 49 percent of the vote, respectively. The CO-8 campaign will again become one of the most hotly contested races of the national US House election cycle and a major factor toward determining the next partisan majority.

Here We Go Again

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Senate

The 2024 election cycle featured a Nebraska US Senate race that was billed as a potential upset but failed as Election Day approached. That same losing Independent candidate looks to be returning in 2026, and a new poll suggests a repeating pattern.

Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I)

Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I)

In 2024, Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I) received a great deal of national political attention because the polls were consistently showing him running ahead or even with Sen. Deb Fischer (R) for most of the campaign cycle.

In fact, from late September through the election, 12 polls were released of the Nebraska Senate race and Osborn led in seven. This, despite the electorate not voting for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. Additionally, GOP nominees for Senator and Governor averaged 60.4 percent of the vote since 2006, which was the last time a Democratic Senator (Ben Nelson) or Governor was on the Cornhusker State ballot.

Osborn did well because the Democrats, once the Independent demonstrated he was a legitimate contender, decided not to file their own candidate. They were comfortable in supporting Osborn because he is generally in ideological alignment with the Democratic platform.

In the end, Sen. Fischer won re-election with a comfortable six-point margin and carried 91 of the state’s 93 counties.

Nebraska polling was inconsistent during the 2024 election cycle. The pollsters correctly predicted an easy Donald Trump victory and former Vice President Kamala Harris carrying the state’s 2nd Congressional District but largely missed the Senate race until the very end, while projecting Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) to be running consistently behind even though he again won a close re-election.

Now, a new Change Research poll finds another Nebraska US Senate dead heat result, this time between Osborn and Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). The recent CR data result (March 28-April 1; 524 likely Nebraska 2026 general election voters; online through Survey Monkey) projects Sen. Ricketts holding only a 46-45 percent lead over Osborn.

The Senator also posted an upside-down favorability index. According to the CR survey, only 38 percent of the respondents hold a favorable view of Ricketts, while 45 percent have an unfavorable impression. The same sample, however, rates President Trump with a 55:43 percent positive index.

The favorability numbers fly in the face of the November election returns where Sen. Ricketts, after being appointed to his seat in 2023, recorded a 63-37 percent election victory to serve the balance of the current term. He now must run again in order to clinch a full six-year stint.

The favorability responses for Trump and Ricketts are highly conflicting and certainly eyebrow raising in reference to the latter man. While the President records an 89 percent positive rating among the self-identified Republican respondents, and a 70 percent very favorable, Sen. Ricketts only posts 62 percent favorable among the same cell and a very low 29 percent very favorable mark. This, for a man the Nebraska Republicans have twice overwhelmingly nominated for Governor and once as Senator.

Though Change Research is a reputable pollster, Survey Monkey has proven unreliable. CR employing the Survey Monkey platform is a new methodological factor for the firm, so this particular poll’s reliability must be questioned. Both the current CR ballot test and favorability index in relation to Sen. Ricketts are not consistent with his strong historical electoral performance.

Additionally, the poll also assumes the Nebraska Democrats will not file their own Senate candidate in 2026 and back Osborn by default, as they did in 2024. So far this year, Osborn says he is considering several options which could mean challenging Sen. Ricketts, Gov. Jim Pillen (R), or Rep. Bacon. At this point, he seems to be focusing on Sen. Ricketts, but that may change since plenty of time remains before the state’s March 2026 candidate filing deadline.

For their part, the Democratic leadership has not openly committed to again supporting Osborn. They are likely to do so if he chooses to run against Ricketts, and possibly Gov. Pillen, but the party leaders have been cool to the idea of not filing their own candidate against Rep. Bacon in a politically marginal 2nd Congressional District where a Democrat can win.

Both ex-President Joe Biden and former VP Harris carried the NE-2 against President Trump in 2020 and 2024, yet Rep. Bacon was able to reverse the top-of-the-ticket trend in both of those years to secure re-election.

While Dan Osborn is likely to generate favorable polling responses in a two-way race with Sen. Ricketts and will attract a great deal in the way of campaign resources, electoral history and voting patterns again suggest that Sen. Ricketts should still enjoy a strong re-election run next year.

Rep. Donalds Moving Fast in Florida

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 14, 2025

Governor

Florida Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

The open Florida Governor’s race could be a 2026 campaign that attracts a great deal of national political attention, but the most recent moves suggest the contest may instead be headed for an early clinching.

Florida US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is strategically moving quickly in an attempt to freeze out Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis from entering the open Governor’s race. Donalds’ fast action is designed to secure the Republican gubernatorial nomination long before the state’s August 2026 primary election.

In announcing a new set of public endorsements, Rep. Donalds, currently serving his third term in the House, wields support from some of the nation and state’s top Republicans including 11 of the 19 Florida GOP House members in addition to himself.

His list of key political endorsements includes President Donald Trump, Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R), and Sunshine State US Reps. Kat Cammack (R-Gainesville), John Rutherford (R-Jacksonville), newly elected Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach), Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), Dan Webster (R-Clermont), Laurel Lee (R-Tampa), Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota), Scott Franklin (R-Lakeland), Brian Mast (R-Fort Pierce), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Miami), and Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami).

Perhaps most important from the group of House members is Rep. Lee, who is the only member of the delegation to back Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign over that of President Trump.

Clearly the Donalds’ endorsement strategy is designed to gather so much early public support that Ms. DeSantis, assuming she is still testing the political waters to succeed her term-limited husband, will see that the path to the nomination is too steep to traverse.

The most recent elections and voter registration data suggests winning the Republican primary is now almost tantamount to also securing the general election. Since 2018, Florida, along with Ohio and West Virginia, have moved significantly to the ideological right, while Colorado, New Hampshire, and New Mexico have moved similarly leftward.

To give you an idea as to how much Florida has changed politically, let’s examine the state voter registration figures. According to the official Secretary of State registration count, at the end of 2018 there were 257,175 more Florida registered Democrats than Republicans. Conversely, at the end of 2024, Republicans claimed 1,156,082 more registrants than Democrats.

This trend represents a net GOP gain of 1,413,257 self-identified party members during the six-year period, or 5.5 times the size of the Democratic advantage in 2018. As an aside, total registration only rose by 860,513 individuals during the same period. In fact, Democratic affiliation actually dropped by a whopping 496,075 individual units from 2018 through the end of 2024.

The election results during the same six-year period and slightly beyond accentuate the registration numbers.

Turning back to 2016, then-citizen Trump carried Florida against Hillary Clinton by 112,911 votes or just 1.2 percentage points. In 2018, then-Congressman DeSantis and current Sen. Scott, who was the sitting Governor at the time, won their statewide contests by 32,463 and 10,033 votes meaning four-tenths of a percent or just over one-tenth of a percent, respectively. In 2020, President Trump again carried Florida, but with a small 3.4 percent cushion.

Yet in 2022, the margins began to drastically change. Gov. DeSantis posted a victory margin of just under 20 percentage points, and then-Sen. Marco Rubio recorded a win of better than 16 points even while spending $30 million less than his opponent.

Moving to 2024, President Trump clinched Florida with a 13-point cushion, which translates into a victory spread of more than 1.4 million votes. Such is an improvement greater than 1.2 million votes when compared to four years earlier. Sen. Scott then skated to a re-election victory that fell slightly under 1.4 million cast ballots.

While Florida’s rightward move was certainly driven through voter registration and conservative voters moving to the state from other places, it didn’t take long for the voting patterns to follow suit. Expect this trend to continue in the open 2024 Governor’s race, hence Rep. Donalds’ strategy to lock down the party nomination early will pay major dividends.

Paxton Enters Senate Race in Texas; Nickel Does Same in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 11, 2025

Texas

Ken Paxton / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced earlier this week, on Fox News’ Monday night’s Ingraham Angle, that he will challenge Sen. John Cornyn in next year’s Republican primary.

The move had been expected, but the wild card in the race appears to be US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The Congressman is reportedly going to disclose raising $1.5 million in first quarter 2025 on his Federal Election Commission filing that is due April 15.

A Super PAC has spent seven figures on positive biography ads about Rep. Hunt throughout the state except for his hometown of Houston. All of this suggests he is planning to enter the Senate race, thus forcing a three-way major candidate contest.

The Cornyn campaign quickly responded to the Paxton announcement on social media saying, “Ken Paxton is a fraud. He talks tough on crime and then lets crooked progressive Lina Hidalgo off the hook. He says his impeachment trial was a sham but he didn’t contest the facts in legal filings, which will cost the state millions. He says he’s anti-woke but he funnels millions of taxpayer dollars to lawyers who celebrate DEI. And Ken claims to be a man of faith but uses fake Uber accounts to meet his girlfriend and deceive his family.”

Paxton attacks Sen. Cornyn as not being a strong supporter of President Donald Trump, and retaliated in his Fox News interview saying, “it’s time that we have another great Senator that will actually stand up and fight for Republican values, fight for the values of the people of Texas and also support Donald Trump in the areas that he’s focused on in a very significant way.”

Interestingly, should Hunt enter the race, he could indirectly help Cornyn. Since he and Paxton would likely draw from the same conservative rural constituencies that represent the heart of Texas’ Trump Country, a large portion of the anti-Cornyn vote would be split. Sen. Cornyn does well in the metro areas during the GOP primaries, so opponents dividing the anti-incumbent vote would at least guarantee him a runoff position.

The Texas primary will likely be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff election targeted for May 26 if no candidate receives majority support.

North Carolina

Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D)

There was also action in the North Carolina Senate campaign. Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D), who did not seek re-election in November because of an adverse 2023 redistricting plan, announced that he will run for the Senate.

This is an interesting move because Nickel originally said that he would only run if former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) decided not to mount a Senate campaign. Cooper is finishing a fellowship at Harvard University and said he would make a decision about the Senate race when he completes the program.

When asked about Cooper potentially entering the Senate contest, Nickel now says he will “cross that bridge when I come to it.” Initially, he said he would step aside if Cooper decided to become a candidate. In reality, the former one-term Raleigh area Congressman may have inside information that the former Governor will not run for the Senate, hence his decision to announce his own campaign earlier than originally planned.

The developments could also be a signal that Cooper may be looking more seriously at the presidential race. If so, he would be unlikely to run for Senate in 2026 if he is planning to launch a national campaign in the 2028 open presidential cycle.

In any event, the eventual Democratic Senate nominee will challenge two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in what will again be a highly competitive 2026 general election. The North Carolina race promises to be one of the top national US Senate campaigns of the current election cycle.

Sununu Out; James In

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 10, 2025

New Hampshire

Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

Saying he believes the Republicans have a strong chance to win the open New Hampshire US Senate seat in 2026, former Gov. Chris Sununu (R) put an end to the public speculation that he may become a candidate.Sununu said it is not the right time for him to run for the Senate, which is consistent with his action when Republican leaders previously approached him about launching a Senate campaign.

Former Massachusetts US Sen. Scott Brown (R), who moved to New Hampshire after he was defeated for re-election in 2012, challenged Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) two years later. The three-term incumbent, who has already announced her retirement when the current Congress adjourns, defeated Brown, 51-48 percent. It is apparent that the former Massachusetts Senator is intent on running again.

Frank Edelblut, Commissioner of the New Hampshire Department of Education, is also a potential candidate. Then-Gov. Sununu originally appointed him to his current position and the new Governor, former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R), kept him in place. Ex-White House aide and two-time congressional candidate Matt Mowers is another Republican potential candidate. For now, however, it appears that former Sen. Brown is the front-runner for the party nomination.

Late last week, four-term US Rep. Chris Pappas of Manchester announced his intention to run and appears as the clear front-runner for his party’s nomination. He has a strong chance of becoming a consensus Democratic candidate.

It was obvious that recruiting former Gov. Sununu would give the Republicans their best chance of converting this Senate seat. It remains to be seen how competitive the Republicans can be against Rep. Pappas, but sans Sununu, the Democrats regain the early advantage.

Michigan

Michigan Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills)

The anticipated hot open Michigan Governor’s campaign came into better focus.

As expected, two-term US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) announced that he will enter the Governor’s race, striving to succeed term-limited incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D).

James has twice run statewide. In 2018, he challenged US Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) and then ran again two years later opposite Sen. Gary Peters (D). James drew national attention in holding Sen. Stabenow to a tighter than expected 52-46 percent margin spread. In 2020, the political battle ended in even closer fashion, 50-48 percent, in Sen. Peters’ favor.

Redistricting in the following year created an open US House seat in his home area. James would win a half-point 2022 victory over former local judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), and then scored a six-point re-election victory this past November against the same opponent.

The 2026 Michigan Governor’s race will likely be unique among all statewide elections in that it has the chance of becoming a legitimate three-way contest.

On the Republican side, many cast Rep. James as the early front-runner for the party nomination even with polling showing a close contest between he and 2022 gubernatorial Republican nominee Tudor Dixon. It is not clear, however, if she will again run for Governor. Former Attorney General Mike Cox is also taking steps to organize a gubernatorial campaign along with state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw).

The Democrats also have nomination competition. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is an announced candidate, and polling posts her to an early lead. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist recently entered the race, as did Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson.

The third contender, and one who will advance directly into the general election because he is running as an Independent, is three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan. The municipal chief executive was first elected in 2013 and subsequently re-elected in 2017 and 2021. It was a surprise when he entered the race, not because he became a statewide candidate but for declaring as an Independent. Previously, he had run as a Democrat.

With Duggan having an obvious political base in Detroit, the state’s largest city, a potential Benson-James-Duggan race is set to become the wild card race of the 2026 national election cycle.