Category Archives: Senate

New Hampshire for Biden Write-In Effort; NJ First Lady Files; OR-3 Rep. Blumenauer to Retire; Bowman on Hot Seat Since Pulling Fire Alarm

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 2, 2023

President

A New Hampshire for Biden poster

New Hampshire: Democratic Leaders Launch Biden Write-in Effort — A group of leading Democrats, including the state’s two senators and their pair of US House members, as well as all 10 Democratic state senators and most of the party’s large delegation to the state House of Representatives, are forming an organization to qualify President Joe Biden as a write-in candidate for the still unscheduled Democratic presidential primary. Biden is choosing to bypass New Hampshire because the state did not agree with the new Democratic National Committee presidential primary scheduling recommendations.

Though the show of internal Democratic strength is positive for the Biden campaign, their move also increases the stakes for the New Hampshire primary. US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) is a candidate and will secure a ballot position. Therefore, the pressure would be on the Biden write-in effort to defeat Phillips, otherwise his national campaign would begin with a major political black eye.

Senate

New Jersey: NJ First Lady Files Candidate Committee — New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy (D) may be joining the US Senate race. Rumored to be a candidate once the scandal involving incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D) broke, Murphy had not taken any official step to create a formal campaign. That changed Tuesday, however, as she filed a senatorial exploratory committee with the Federal Election Commission but stopped short of declaring her candidacy. An announcement may be coming in the next couple of weeks.

Murphy may have a difficult time in the Senate Democratic primary. Sen. Menendez, though faring poorly in early polling, has not indicated that he will resign or retire. Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) immediately announced his Senate primary entry upon the Menendez indictment becoming public and has jumped out to an early lead.

Additionally, Gov. Phil Murphy had a close call for re-election in 2021, meaning the Murphy family is likely weakened within the Democratic voting base. Finally, Murphy has never been a candidate before, and starts well behind Rep. Kim despite having name identification. An early October Data for Progress poll showed Kim leading an entire proposed candidate field, including Sen. Menendez, by a large margin. Murphy stood at just four percent support.

House

OR-3: Rep. Earl Blumenauer to Retire — Fifteen-term Oregon US Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Portland) has announced that he will retire at the end of the current Congress. Blumenauer, first elected to the House in a 1996 special election, has served in public office consecutively since 1973, including his time in the Oregon House of Representatives, the Multnomah County Commission, and as a Portland City Commissioner, in addition to his 28-plus years in Congress. He currently serves on the Ways & Means and Budget Committees.

Rep. Blumenauer leaves a safely Democratic Portland suburban-anchored seat that covers Hood River County and parts of Multnomah and Clackamas counties. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+43. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a whopping 70.5D – 25.0R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks OR-3 as the 155th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

Blumenauer’s retirement decision means there are now 22 open House seats, 15 from the Democratic side, six that Republicans hold, with one new redistricting-created open seat in Alabama. Of the 21 incumbents not seeking re-election at this point, eight are retiring or have resigned, and 13 are running for a different office. We can expect a crowded and hotly contested 3rd District Democratic primary scheduled for May 21, 2024.

NY-16: Rep. Bowman Primary Opponents Unifying — Pastor Michael Gerald (D) announced that he is putting his Democratic primary challenge against Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) on hold until Westchester County Executive George Latimer (D) decides whether he will run. Rep. Bowman has been on the hot seat regarding being found guilty of deliberately pulling a fire alarm in the Cannon House Office Building and could face an expulsion resolution. Obviously, this has generated negative publicity for the congressman.

Prior to winning the County Executive’s position in the 2017 election, Latimer had served in the New York State Senate and Assembly. Westchester County contains 91 percent of NY-16, so a Latimer challenge to Rep. Bowman, should it materialize, would become a major campaign.

The Kennedy Factor in Alaska; Maryland Gov. Moore Endorses Senate Candidate; Malinowski’s Response; Candidate Search in PA-10

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023

President

Alaska: First Poll with Kennedy — The Alaska Survey Research firm tested the 2024 general election with, for the first time, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the questionnaire as an Independent candidate. Some have been saying that Kennedy on the ballot could force former President Donald Trump below 50 percent, which would jump-start a Ranked Choice Voting round. This could open the door to President Joe Biden winning Alaska even though he would be nowhere close to victory in the initial vote.

According to the ASR data (Oct. 13-18; 1,375 likely Alaska general election voters; online) Trump is leading the field but with just 37 percent support. President Biden follows with 29 percent, while Kennedy draws 17 percent. In an initial test without Kennedy, Trump would lead President Biden 45-37 percent. Therefore, both candidates would yield 8 percent support to Kennedy. The key here for Trump is making sure he does not fall below the 50 percent threshold, and this poll suggests he would be in danger of doing so if Kennedy continues to remain relatively strong.

Senate

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D)

Maryland: Gov. Moore Endorses Senate Candidate — Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) involved himself in what promises to be a hotly contested open Democratic primary to replace retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D). Maryland’s voting history suggests that Sen. Cardin’s successor will be found in the Democratic primary, as Republicans will have little chance to win a Maryland statewide race in a presidential election year.

Gov. Moore announced that he is supporting Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for the party nomination. Her chief opponent is US representative and Total Beverage chain founder, Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac). The Moore endorsement is a signal to the African American community, the base of the state’s Democratic Party, that they should unite behind Alsobrooks.

Maryland’s black population accounts for just under 32 percent of the state’s residents. In a Democratic primary, however, their size is significantly larger.

Rep. Trone has already put just under $10 million of his own money into his campaign account and is currently advertising in targeted markets. According to Trone’s latest campaign finance report, 98 percent of his money comes from him.

House

NJ-7: Ex-Rep. Malinowski Responds — Former two-term US Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) responded to a statewide op-ed piece asking him to challenge the man who unseated him in 2022, freshman US Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield).

While Malinowski has not publicly ruled out running again, his response to the piece suggests that he will not become a candidate. His quote: “I am very happy in my life right now and looking forward to the next challenge, not backward.” Currently in the Democratic primary are former State Department official Jason Blazakis and progressive left activist Sue Altman.

PA-10: New Democratic Leader — According to a new Public Policy Polling Democratic primary survey of Pennsylvania’s competitive 10th District (Oct. 16-17; 547 PA-10 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), the respondents are looking for a new nominee to challenge US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg).

The poll suggests that retired news anchor Janelle Stelson holds an early 33-20 percent edge over 2022 Democratic nominee and Harrisburg City Councilwoman Shamaine Daniels. In November, Daniels held Rep. Perry to a 54-46 percent victory. Her 27 years on the air in south-central Pennsylvania provides her with a substantial district-wide name identification advantage.

Expect this race to again be competitive, but Rep. Perry begins as the favorite for re-election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-10 as R+9. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 37th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Q3 Campaign Finance Summary

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023

Financials

Fund Raising: Nearly $1 Billion Taken In — Together, the Senate and House campaigns have raised an aggregate of close to $1 billion dollars ($926.5 million to be exact) for the 2024 election cycle. This, according to the Federal Election Commission’s Oct. 15 campaign finance reports for the 3rd Quarter period ending Sept. 30.

Twenty-eight senators are seeking re-election, along with the 55 challenger and open seat candidates, and they have combined to raise just under $443 million for the cycle; the 638 House incumbents and candidates who filed reports combined to record ‘24 cycle receipts of almost $484 million.

As they have done for every reporting period, the Daily Kos Elections statisticians published summary figures for all the candidates.

The combined Senate campaigns raised over $88.3 million (83 total candidates) for the 3rd Quarter and had an aggregate current cash-on-hand figure of $273.5 million. The 28 incumbents raised $44.7 million of the aggregate receipts figure, and the office holders have a combined total of almost $167 million in their respective campaign bank accounts.

The average among the 28 Senators seeking re-election was almost $1.6 million raised for the quarter, with each having an average of just over $6 million in the all-important cash-on-hand category.

According to the Daily Kos Elections data, the House re-election, challenger, and open-seat contenders accumulated just under $161 million for the Q3 fundraising segment. Among the House incumbents, the average raised for Q3 was just under $296,000, while the mean cash-on-hand figure for the reporting incumbents was $1.15 million.

Comparing the Senate Q3 aggregate dollars raised amount of $88.3 million to the Q2 effort, we see an actual decrease of approximately $3 million. On the House side, the combined receipts total of $161 million is about $10 million lower than the aggregate figure for Q2. The slight decreases suggest that less fundraising was done over the summer months as compared to the period ending June 30.

The 2nd Quarter also tends to be the kick-off for the candidates’ next campaign cycle so activity during this period is typically more intense.

Not surprisingly, the top Senate fundraisers were the incumbents and candidates in the most hotly contested campaigns. California Senate candidate, Rep. Adam Schiff (D), led all statewide contenders with $5.9 million raised for the quarter and $21.9 million for the cycle-to-date. He holds a whopping $32 million cash-on-hand.

Senate contenders raising more than $3 million for Q3 were:

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH; $5.6 million
Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT; $4.9 million)
Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas; $4.7 million)
Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA; $3.4 million)
Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA; $3.1 million)
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI; $3.07 million)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX; $3.06 million)
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ; $3.02 million)

The Senate candidates with the most cash-on-hand at the end of the 3rd Quarter are:

Rep. Schiff ($32.1 million)
Sen. Tester ($13.0 million)
Rep. Porter ($11.9 million)
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV; $11.3 million)
Sen. Sherrod Brown ($11.2 million)
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ; $10.8 million)

In the House, as is typically the case, the party leaders are the top fundraisers. Those not in leadership who raised the most in the 3rd Quarter are:

Challenger Adam Frisch (D-CO vs. Rep. Lauren Boebert-R; $3.37 million)
Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL; $1.2 million)
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA; $1.19 million)
Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT; $1.17 million)
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY; $1.16 million)
Challenger Mondaire Jones (D-NY vs. Rep. Mike Lawler-R; $1.14 million)
Rep. Eli Crane (R-AZ; $1.110 million)
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA; 1.09 million)
Rep. John James (R-MI; $1.04 million)

It appears the electoral participants are again on a record fundraising pace. It is highly likely that the 2024 election cycle will be the most prolific ever in terms of fundraising and campaign spending.

Biden Challenger Poised; Jawando Drops Maryland Senate Bid;
A Challenger Emerges in IA-2; North Carolina Redistricting

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 24, 2023

President

Minnesota US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Plymouth)

Rep. Dean Phillips: Reportedly Still Considering Biden Challenge — Media reports are again suggesting that three-term Minnesota US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Plymouth) is still considering challenging President Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination. It is difficult to see how the congressman would have any reasonable path of victory in challenging the incumbent president of his party when starting at such a late date.

Rep. Phillips has been urging more prominent Democrats to challenge the president, the reason for which is he believes there should be competition for the party nomination. Phillips concedes, however, that he agrees with President Biden ideologically.

Senate

Maryland: Jawando Drops Senate Bid — Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawando (D), who was one of the first individuals to declare for the Senate once incumbent Sen. Ben Cardin (D) announced his retirement, now becomes the first to withdraw. Jawando indicated he does not see a path to victory for himself, hence his decision to end his campaign. With his main opponents for the Democratic nomination having much more in the way of resources, a gap which was looking to grow larger, Jawando was finding it hard to compete.

Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) has already spent nearly $10 million on his race and is already advertising heavily. Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) has raised over $3 million. Jawando reported just over $320,000 in his campaign account. The May 14, 2024, Democratic primary will likely be the deciding factor and it appears the race is already becoming a two-way contest between Trone and Alsobrooks.

House

IA-2: Rep. Hinson Draws First Challenger — Disability rights activist Sarah Corkery (D) became the first individual from either party to announce a challenge to two-term Iowa US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids). Three of the four Iowa districts are competitive, including Rep. Hinson’s 2nd. According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, IA-2 rates R+4. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 51.4R – 45.6D. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks IA-2 as the 29th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

While the district is competitive on paper, Rep. Hinson is in strong position. She won re-election last year with a 54-46 percent margin against then-state Sen. Liz Mathis (D) who, like Hinson, is a former television news anchor and very strong challenger who spent $4.2 million in her race against the congresswoman. Rep. Hinson also outperformed then-President Donald Trump in the district by a net four percentage points. Therefore, though the district is politically marginal, Rep. Hinson, who is reporting more than $1.3 million in her 2024 campaign account, is a well-positioned incumbent.

North Carolina: Redistricting Numbers Calculated — North Carolina legislative leaders released two congressional maps late last week, and now we see voting trend analyses being made public. Dave’s Redistricting App has already calculated partisan leans for the pair of maps.

The map drawers obviously adopted a strategy of making the maximum number of Republican districts. They did so by giving each of the seats targeted for GOP candidates partisan trend numbers between 54 and 58 percent. The three Democratic districts have partisan trends between 66 and 74 percent. In the second map, the one that could produce an 11R-3D result, Rep. Don Davis’ (D-Snow Hill) 1st District would be up for grabs, with a partisan lean of 50.4D – 48.7R.

Expect the legislature to vote on the maps this week. Legal challenges will follow enactment, but the chance of the plan being upheld in the North Carolina Supreme Court with its new 5R-2D composition is strong.

Polling Projects Electoral College Win for Trump; California Senate Jockeying; New Jerseyans Want Menendez Out; New Candidate in MN-2; GOP Candidate Emerges in NC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 23, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump

Trump’s Numbers: Polling Finds 291 Electoral Votes — According to a series of concurrently conducted independent polls, former President Donald Trump today would lead in enough states to provide him with 291 electoral votes, or 21 more than required to unseat President Joe Biden. Morning Consult, polling for Bloomberg News in various targeted states, projects Trump to leads in Arizona (+4), Georgia (+5), North Carolina (+4), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+2).

Last week, Emerson College also found Trump holding an advantage in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Simultaneously, the Marketing Resource Group saw Trump running seven points ahead in Michigan, but the more current Morning Consult/Bloomberg data shows the two candidates tied before the Wolverine State electorate. It is these aforementioned states that will make the difference nationally.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., now running as an Independent candidate, was not tested in the MC/Bloomberg survey series.

Senate

California: Sen. Butler Out; LA Anchorwoman I — Appointed California Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) announced yesterday that she will not run for a full term next year. Despite having more than a year in office after replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), the early March 5 all-party jungle primary allowed her little time to begin competing against Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) and former baseball great Steve Garvey (R), all of whom have a major head start in fundraising and campaign organization.

Los Angeles news anchor Christina Pascucci (D), on the other hand, became a late entry into the crowded US Senate contest, but said she is getting into the race “ … because I have to fight for what I believe is possible for California and for this country.” Pascucci describes herself as a “moderate Democrat.”

New Jersey: Constituents Favor Menendez Resignation — A newly released Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of the Garden State electorate (Aug. 6-14; 813 New Jersey adults; live interview & text) finds that 70 percent of the respondents, including 71 percent of Democrats, believe that indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) should resign his seat even without him having a chance to defend himself in court.

So far, Sen. Menendez has been adamant about not resigning over the federal charges that accuse he, his wife, and several associates of engaging in bribery. While the senator is not forced to leave office, polls such as this clearly suggest that he will be a severe underdog in a June Democratic primary race against US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and potentially several others.

House

MN-2: New Republican Candidate — The GOP leadership is making another attempt to unseat Minnesota US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), but this time it is likely they will have a new standard bearer. Former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab announced his congressional candidacy late last week. In the past two elections, Rep. Craig has defeated military veteran Tyler Kistner but with an average vote percentage of only 49.5 percent. Republicans hope a fresh face will be able to get the extra support to top the three term House incumbent.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-2 as D+1, while the Daily Kos Elections site ranks the southeast Minnesota congressional district as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

Governor

North Carolina: New Republican Candidate Emerges — Attorney Bill Graham (R), who says he will invest at least $5 million of his own money into his statewide race, announced his candidacy for the state’s open governor’s position. Many in the Republican establishment doubt that the early front runner, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, can win a protracted campaign, which is sure to feature a barrage of attack ads portraying him as an extremist.

The leading Democratic nominee is Attorney General Josh Stein, but he only won the 2020 re-election campaign with 50.1 percent of the vote. Therefore, the Republicans will be competitive in the governor’s race regardless of who they nominate. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Harris vs. Newsom for President?; Good/Bad News for Sen. Tester; Rep. Lesko to Retire; New Redistricting Maps in North Carolina; VA-10 News

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 20, 2023

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Democratic Poll: Harris vs. Newsom — Rumors have been rampant that the Democrats may somehow soon replace President Joe Biden as the party nominee. The Premise survey research company (Oct. 11-16; 1,417 registered US voters; 847 US Democratic registered voters; online) just tested the highly unlikely supposition.

The pollsters paired Vice President Kamala Harris against California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Many believe that Newsom would be Biden’s hypothetical replacement, but this first poll doesn’t concur. Premise reports a Harris lead over Newsom of 23-15 percent with a huge undecided factor. Expect President Biden to again become the Democratic nominee.

Marist College: First Three-Way Presidential Poll — Marist College, polling for National Public Radio (Oct. 11; 1,218 registered US voters), is the first survey research entity to release a Biden-Trump-Kennedy poll since Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he would run in the general election as an Independent.

While the Biden-Trump ballot test found President Biden leading 49-46 percent, which is slightly better for the incumbent than most other current national polls, the addition of Kennedy sees the electorate break away from former President Donald Trump to the greater degree. The three-way result is 44-37-16 percent in favor of Biden. The big difference comes in the Independent sector. In a two-way, Independents break toward Trump, 49-43 percent. When Kennedy is added, the Trump-Biden-Kennedy split evolves to 34-33-29 percent, respectively.

Senate

Montana: Good News & Bad News for Sen. Tester — Emerson College surveyed the Montana electorate (Oct. 1-4; 447 registered Montana voters; multiple sampling techniques) as part of a series of polls conducted in several states. Here, we see Sen. Jon Tester (D) leading aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) by a close 39-35 percent split. The good news for Sen. Tester in this poll is his maintaining a lead in a state the Republicans must win if they are to claim the Senate majority. The bad news is he fails to even reach the 40 percent plateau.

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), who most believe will enter the race, was not tested because he is not yet an announced candidate. Former Secretary of State Brad Johnson (R) just declared his own candidacy, so he, too, was not included.

House

AZ-8: Rep. Lesko (R) to Retire, Two New Candidate Possibilities — Three-plus term Arizona US Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) announced that she will not seek re-election to her state’s 8th Congressional District next year.

The congresswoman indicated that time away from her family, including her 94-year-old mother, while expressing frustration saying, “it is hard to get anything done [in Congress],” led to the decision to bring her political career to a close.

Lesko first won election to the Arizona House of Representatives in 2008, before capturing a state Senate seat in 2014. After US Rep. Trent Franks (R) resigned from Congress, Lesko won the 2018 special election to become his successor. She was re-elected to a full term in the 2018 regular election and easily won two additional terms.

AZ-8 is reliably Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+22. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 57.3R – 40.8D partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the 8th as the 77th most vulnerable district in the current 221-member GOP Conference. Former President Trump scored a 56.1 – 42.5 percent victory over President Biden here in 2020.

Lesko’s (R-Peoria) retirement announcement has potentially attracted two well known names from the 2022 election cycle. Attorney General nominee Abe Hamadeh, who lost the statewide race by just 280 votes of over 2.5 million votes cast, and US Senate nominee Blake Masters are among the Republicans being mentioned as potentially having interest in the newly open congressional seat.

North Carolina: New Redistricting Maps Released — Tar Heel State legislative leaders released two proposed congressional maps for legislators to consider. Both would improve Republican prospects and likely break the current 7D-7R map into a plan that would largely benefit the GOP.

Each map would endanger three Democratic incumbents: Reps. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro), Wiley Nickel (D-Cary), and Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte). The first map would likely return a 10R-4D split, while the second plan could conceivably bring the Republicans a 11R-3D division.

The legislators will now have the opportunity to debate the map proposals, consolidate the draws into one map, and amend the bills. Once the legislature passes a final plan, expect the Democrats to sue. The state Supreme Court will likely have to make a final ruling, but this is a much different judicial panel from the one that continued to reject the legislature’s intent during the past decade.

In 2022, Republicans captured a majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court, reversing the Democrats’ 4-3 edge. The new court features five Republicans and two Democrats. Getting to the US Supreme Court is a much more difficult exercise because SCOTUS has generally made the state Supreme Courts the redistricting final arbiter.

VA-10: Del. Filler-Corn Switches to House Race — Former state House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn (D-Springfield), who was ousted as minority leader after the Democrats lost the state House majority in the 2021 election, has altered her future political path. Originally saying she was not running for re-election to the state House of Delegates in order to prepare a run for governor in 2025, Filler-Corn announced that she now won’t run statewide but will instead enter the 2024 open 10th Congressional District race.

Incumbent Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg) is retiring due to health considerations. The 10th District will remain in Democratic hands, but next year’s nomination process promises to feature a competitive party primary.

Polls: Trump Up in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin & Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 16, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump moves ahead of President Joe Biden in three key state polls.

Key States: Trump Emerges in New Polling — Three of the more important states that will largely determine the 2024 presidential outcome reported new polling data late last week. The results are significant. Three polls from two different pollsters projected former President Donald Trump as surprisingly leading in the critical battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Emerson College surveyed voters in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all between the Oct. 1-4 period. MRG Research, polling for the Detroit News (Oct. 2-8; 600 likely Michigan voters), tested the Michigan electorate.

For the first time since he carried each of these states in the 2016 presidential election, these polls show that former President Donald Trump holds a general election edge over President Joe Biden in all three states. EC projects Trump holding leads of 45-36 percent in Pennsylvania and 42-40 percent in Wisconsin. In Michigan, MRG finds Trump posting a 42-35 percent advantage over President Biden.

Reviewing the national Electoral College map, in order to flip the 2020 election results Trump must convert states holding at least 35 electoral votes. The smallest number of in-play states equaling that particular electoral vote number is two: Georgia (16 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (19).

If Pennsylvania does not come through for Trump, then a combination of Georgia (16), Arizona (11), and Wisconsin (10) voting Republican would also deliver the former president a victory. These examples, of course, presume that all other states vote the same as they did in 2020.

While it is mathematically conceivable for Trump to win the national election without carrying one of the aforementioned Great Lakes states, from a practical context, when considering recent historical voting patterns, it is virtually impossible. Realistically, if Trump is to turnaround the 2020 election outcome, he must carry at least one of these three domains.

That is why this polling release is worth noting.

Recently, we have been seeing issue polling that clearly favored Republicans on most issues, especially key ones such as economy, border security, immigration, and crime. The party’s positive numbers regarding the handling of those issues, however, were not translating into increased votes for Republican presidential candidates on ballot tests within those same surveys. Now, we see the candidate numbers beginning to turn.

The Emerson College Pennsylvania poll (Oct. 1-4; 430 registered Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Trump topping Biden by a large nine-point margin, 45-36 percent, well beyond the polling margin of error. Their Wisconsin survey (Oct. 1-4; 532 registered Wisconsin voters; multiple sampling techniques) also posts Trump to a lead, but a much smaller one, 42-40 percent.

Across Lake Michigan, MRG Research tested the Wolverine State electorate (Oct. 2-8; 600 likely Michigan voters) and their ballot test between Biden and Trump showed the the former president leading by a seven-point margin — 42-35 percent.

What is notable is that the Emerson Pennsylvania poll also tested the state’s budding Senate race between three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and Republican businessman David McCormick. Here, the same polling sample turns back toward the Democrats.

In answering the Senate ballot test question, the respondents recorded a 41-33 percent split for Sen. Casey, a margin again well beyond the polling margin of error. This result is also stronger for Casey than the first publicly released poll of the Pennsylvania Senate contest, that from Quinnipiac University (Sept. 28-Oct. 2; 1,725 registered Pennsylvania voters). In the Q-Poll, Sen. Casey’s lead was 50-44 percent.

The fact that the polling sample would return to the Democratic column for the Senate race gives greater credence to the presidential number and suggests that this survey is no outlier.

In Emerson’s Wisconsin poll, the interviewers asked an interesting question. They queried both the Trump and Biden supporters whether there was anything their candidate could do that would change their vote. The results were almost identical.

A total of 50 percent of the Trump voters and 51 percent of the Biden voters said their support was solid, and nothing that either man might do between now and election day would change their vote. Conversely, 24 percent of Trump voters and 23 percent of Biden supporters suggested they could change their minds based upon their chosen candidate’s actions.

These responses tell us that both men have equally fervent support, but also gives each plenty of prospects with whom to potentially convince. We can expect Wisconsin to remain in toss-up mode all the way through the final vote.

These surveys mark the first time in this election cycle that Trump has posted such leads in these three critical battleground states. With still more than one year remaining until votes are cast much will happen to change how people will perceive the candidates, thus influencing their vote. For now, the present topsy-turvy political atmosphere seems to be favoring former President Trump.