Category Archives: Senate

Reviewing Tuesday’s
Arizona Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 1, 2024

Senate

Former news anchor and 2022 Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. Photo by Gage Skidmore

Tuesday was primary day in Arizona, and the Senate race is now set for the November campaign.

There was no mystery on the Democratic side as Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) was unopposed in his primary election. Much of the drama from the race evaporated when Independent incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema decided not to seek re-election for a second term. A three-way general election would have sent the campaign in unpredictable directions.

On the Republican side, as expected, former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake won the open Senate GOP nomination, but her victory margin over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb was far from overwhelming. Though the results won’t be final for some time, probably weeks under the modern system of mail balloting, and receiving votes after the election, the current numbers find Lake with only a 53-41 percent edge over Sheriff Lamb.

While enough votes have been tabulated, over 500,000 of what is expected to be a total that should exceed 700,000 votes, the Lake victory appears assured but seeing approximately 47% of Republicans support another candidate is not what she needed to enhance her underdog chances against Rep. Gallego.

House

Hotly contested congressional primaries were decided Tuesday night, and in at least two cases competitive general elections will follow.

In the tight 1st District, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) was renominated in the Republican primary, but with a lesser 63 percent against a pair of minor opponents who barely spent more than $100,000 apiece. The district slightly favors Republicans, but we can again expect a major general election battle in this Phoenix suburban district.

For the Democrats, who featured a highly competitive five-way primary, it appears that former state representative and physician Amish Shah, who resigned from the legislature to concentrate on his congressional campaign and lagged in the published polling, has presumptively claimed the Democratic nomination.

With about three-quarters of the vote counted, Dr. Shah has a three percentage point lead over race favorite Andrei Cherni, the former Arizona Democratic Party chairman, which translates into a margin exceeding 1,500 votes, probably enough to clinch the nomination. Former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, widow of the late Attorney General Grant Woods (D), is a close third, less than 600 votes behind Cherni.

In the 2nd District, freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley), one of the leaders in the movement to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, saw no after-effects of his action as he easily won renomination over former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith with almost 79 percent of the vote at this writing. Rep. Crane will now glide through the general election in this safe Republican district that covers most of eastern Arizona.

In District 3, the predicted close contest to succeed Rep. Gallego materialized. With outside support from pro-crypto currency PAC and the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC (DMFI), it appears that former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari has edged former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. Ansari has a 1,403-vote lead with approximately three-quarters of the vote counted. Though not yet projected, it appears Ansari is in the driver’s seat to win the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to claiming the seat in November.

Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) was easily renominated against minor Republican opposition, but his 62 percent total, which will likely grow when all votes are counted, is not what the congressman would have preferred. He will again face a tough challenge in the general election from his 2022 opponent, former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D). This race was decided by just 5,232 votes two years ago, so another close finish in the southeastern 6th CD is again forecast.

With Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) retiring from Congress and easily winning the Republican nomination for her Maricopa County Supervisorial district, the 8th District became the host to a very nasty Republican primary battle. The subject of most of the attacks, however, 2022 attorney general nominee Abe Hamadeh, who lost the statewide election by only 280 votes from more than 2.5 million ballots cast, appears to have won the GOP nomination to succeed Lesko.

With two-thirds of the vote counted, Hamadeh leads 2022 US Senate candidate Blake Masters by almost 4,700 votes. State House Speaker Ben Toma (R-Peoria) is just 818 votes behind Masters, while former US Rep. Trent Franks trails in 4th place some five percentage points behind the race leader. Assuming Hamadeh’s lead holds, he will be heavily favored to win the general election in November.

Michigan Senate Race Movement; Pennsylvania’s Casey Up Solidly; Surprising New Alabama Poll;
Cori Bush Trailing in Re-Election Bid

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Senate

Michigan: Pensler Out; Two Polls — Underdog Michigan US Senate candidate Sandy Pensler (R) announced that he is abandoning his own campaign and will instead endorse former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) for the GOP nomination to oppose US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). The congresswoman is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

A pair of polls were also released of the general election yielding considerably different results. While both find Rep. Slotkin leading, EPIC-MRA, the most prolific Michigan pollster (for the Detroit Free Press; July 13-17; 600 registered Michigan voters), sees the congresswoman posting a three point lead over Rogers, 43-40 percent.

Public Policy Polling, however, sees a more substantial Slotkin advantage. Their survey (July 17-18; 650 registered Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts a 46-38 percent result. Of the many polls taken of this race, the EPIC-MRA result is more consistent with the preponderance of other surveys.

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. / Photo: FoxNews.com

Pennsylvania: A Polling Trifecta — Three pollsters surveyed the Keystone State electorate, and all show Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) leading businessman David McCormick (R) beyond the polling margin of error. The most recent, from SoCal Research for the OnPoint political blog (July 20-21; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters; online), finds Sen. Casey posting a 10-point lead over McCormick, 50-40 percent, even while the same sample detects former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 50-46 percent.

Public Policy Polling, surveying for the liberal Clean and Prosperous American PAC (July 17-18; 624 registered Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques), found an almost identical result with Sen. Casey ahead 11 points, 50-39 percent.

Finally, British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies (for The Telegraph publication; July 16-18; 688 likely Pennsylvania voters; online, part of a seven-state polling track of 5,005 respondents) added the three minor party candidates to their ballot test and projects that Sen. Casey would lead McCormick 44-37 percent with the other candidates attracting a cumulative three percentage points.

House

AL-2: A Surprising New Poll — Alabama’s new 2nd Congressional District was drawn to elect an African American Democrat, but a recent Strategy Management poll for the Alabama Families PAC (7/22-24; 1,000 AL-2 registered voters; live interview & text) found Republican Caroleen Dobson polling close to race favorite Shomari Figures (D). The ballot test gives Figures just a 37-34 percent edge.

Additionally, Figures’ fundraising is far below what one would expect. According to the June 30th Federal Election Commission second quarter disclosure report, the Democratic nominee had raised only $894,000 as compared to Dobson’s $2.2 million, though $1.3 million of that total comes in the form of a candidate loan.

Figures is still favored in a seat that Kamala Harris should easily carry over Donald Trump, but Dobson’s effort may be worthy of more attention as the campaign season moves into prime time.

MO-1: Rep. Bush Trailing in Pre-Primary Survey — Apparently, the strong outside group influence aimed at defeating Missouri US Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis), approximately a 9:2 ratio in millions of dollars, is being well spent. A new Mellman Group poll July 21-24; 400 likely MO-1 Democratic primary voters) sees former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell leading Rep. Bush, 48-42 percent, as the candidates steam toward next week’s Aug. 6 primary election. The Bell lead has increased five points since a previous poll was published in June.

The chief funder of the anti-Bush efforts is the United Democracy Project, which is the political arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). This group also led to charge to defeat another anti-Israel incumbent on June 25, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY).

Pennsylvania Republican Senate Candidate McCormick Strikes First

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 29, 2024

Senate

Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate David McCormick has jumped the starting gate to run an ad attacking Vice President Kamala Harris (see above) and linking his opponent, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) to her. It appears he is the first Senate candidate to so quickly make an aggressive move regarding Harris.

The ad begins with Sen. Casey praising the vice president, and then continues to post a collage of Harris interviews where she espouses positions on the far left side of the political spectrum. This is of course designed to make Pennsylvania voters question her, and in a related way Sen. Casey, because he is such a strong supporter of the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

Polling consistently finds McCormick trailing Sen. Casey — in the last three published polls from Emerson College, North Star Opinion Research, and SoCal Research, all during the July 20-23 period, the Democratic incumbent leads by four, eight, and 10 points, respectively — so the Republican challenger needs an offensive plan to make the race closer.

The ad is relatively long, just over a minute and one-half. This means it will play in its entirety as a digital message, and we can expect to see reduced versions on the airwaves. With the long list of issues the ad covers, we will see several similar but unique messages in markets throughout the Keystone State.

The ad features clips of Vice President Harris, including the time when she was a senator and presidential candidate in 2020, advocating eliminating the filibuster to pass the Green New Deal and favoring a fracking ban (Pennsylvania produces more natural gas from fracking than any other state) along with banning off-shore drilling and helping workers transition out of fossil fuel industry jobs.

She also says undocumented migrants should not be treated as criminals, wants to abolish ICE, and defund the police. She then states her support for changing the government’s food pyramid to reduce red meat consumption, advocates voting rights for prisoners, wants a mandatory buyback program for gun confiscation, hopes that private health insurance is eliminated, and desires government funded health care for illegals.

The shorter versions of this material will become finely targeted ads. It is likely, however, that all will contain the opening and closing segments which feature Sen. Casey saying that Kamala Harris is “inspiring” and “capable,” and that “the more people get to know her, they are going to be particularly impressed by her ability.”

Obviously, the McCormick consultants chose the clips that correspond to issue positions that the vast majority of Pennsylvanians will oppose. The ad is gaining high marks from right of center organization leaders through tweets and public comments because all of the articulated issue positions show video of Harris herself making the specific comments.

Since not all of her positions will be roundly opposed — reducing red meat consumption and banning off-shore drilling, for example — expect to see fewer of those clips.

Defunding the police, abolishing ICE, transitioning fossil fuel industry workers, and supporting a mandatory buy-back program for weapons will likely score big numbers among the viewers in northeastern, central, and western Pennsylvania. These are the regions that McCormick, and GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, will need to counter the large margins that Harris and Casey will record from the populous Philadelphia metropolitan area.

As we have seen, polling data that places a Republican Senate candidate relatively far behind Trump’s standing has been a common occurrence in 2024, particularly when the Democratic Senate candidate is an incumbent. The McCormick ad strategy of tying the campaign’s opponent, Sen. Casey, to presumptive nominee Harris and her rather extreme policy positions in a manner directly presented for Pennsylvania could become a blueprint for GOP candidates in other states.

It is a certainty that we will see many such clips of Harris’s statements in campaign commercials throughout the nation in the final 100 days of this unique presidential campaign. Whether the strategy helps Republicans score down-ballot victories remains to be seen.

Virtual Tie Between Trump, Harris; Movement in Texas to Fill Jackson Lee’s Seat; Six Dems Criticize VP Harris’s Role in Securing Border

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 26, 2024

President

National Polls: A Virtual Tie — From July 21-24, eight political pollsters conducted national ballot tests of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The surveys produced mixed results. All were conducted online and came from Activote, YouGov, Ipsos, RMG Research, Big Village, Change Research, Morning Consult, and the New York Times/Siena College. The range was from Harris, plus-four to Trump, plus-3. Of the nine polls (YouGov ran two), Trump was ahead in five and Harris four.

New Hampshire: First Polls Favor Harris — While polling was showing former President Trump pulling just ahead of President Biden in New Hampshire before the latter man left the race, two new surveys see a reversal back toward the Democratic nominee in identical margins.

St. Anselm’s College and the University of New Hampshire, both regular Granite State pollsters, went into the field to test Trump against presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. St. Anselm’s (July 24-25; 2,083 registered New Hampshire voters; online) sees Harris leading Trump, 50-44 percent. UNH (July 23-25; 2,875 registered New Hampshire voters; online) found a similar 49-43 percent spread. Both detected the six-point margin.

Trump did not run well in New Hampshire in the last election, losing to President Biden, 53-45 percent. Therefore, continued polling results such as seen in these two flash polls may suggest the Trump campaign will move to more fertile territory.

House

TX-18: Potential Candidates Begin Making Moves — The death of veteran Texas US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) means the Harris County Democratic Party will choose a replacement on the November ballot for her. The Committee members must make their selection before Aug. 26, but the leadership indicates the body will act well before the deadline.

Potential Democratic candidates include former Houston mayor and ex-state Representative Sylvester Turner, at-large Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer, and former US Senate and congressional candidate Amanda Edwards. The 18th District, fully contained within Harris County, is heavily Democratic. Therefore, whomever the party members choose will assuredly win the seat in November. Thus, this small group of activists will have the power to designate the area’s next member of Congress.

House Democrats: Vulnerable Members Break Ranks — Six Democrats broke party ranks to support a Republican resolution criticizing Vice President Harris’ role in securing the border. Not surprisingly, the six are all in competitive House districts, and among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents seeking re-election. They are: Reps. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO-8), Henry Cuellar (D-TX-28), Don Davis (D-NC-1), Jared Golden (D-ME-2), Mary Peltola (D-AK-AL), and Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-WA-3).

DNC Schedules Virtual Vote; Harris Bump Predicted; Candidate Pattern Continues in Pennsylvania; A Cliff-Hanger in New Mexico

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 25, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Democratic National Committee: Virtual Vote Scheduled — Following through on predictions that the Democrats would nominate Vice President Kamala Harris as quickly as possible, DNC chairman Jaime Harrison announced that in fact the committee will schedule a virtual roll call vote in advance of the Democratic National Convention.

The voting period will occur over multiple days culminating with an Aug. 7 deadline — or 12 days before the Democratic National Convention officially convenes in Chicago. At this point, it appears that Harris will easily secure the first ballot nomination and end speculation of another potential candidate arriving to claim support from a delegate majority.

The early vote allows the Democratic leadership to avoid an open convention that could bring chaos, gives the Harris campaign an additional two weeks of general election campaigning, and allows them to make the convention a unifying event.

Trump Pollster: Predicting a Harris Bump — Trump for President pollster Tony Fabrizio yesterday issued a public letter predicting that Vice President Harris will see a bump in national polling because of her “honeymoon” with the institutional media and Democratic rank and file. He also predicted the polling would eventually return to the earlier pattern that posted former President Donald Trump to consistent small leads.

In the past two days, we have seen three national polls released, which include the Independent and minor party candidates:

RMG Research (July 22-23; 2,000 registered US voters; online) sees Trump holding a two point, 48-46 percent, edge over Harris.
Ipsos/Reuters, polling over the same period (July 22-23; 1,018 registered US voters; online) finds a different result, posting Harris over Trump with a four-point, 42-38 percent spread.
YouGov polling for The Economist publication (July 21-23; 1,435 registered US voters; online) sees a tally closer to RMG: Trump leading Harris, 44-41 percent.

We can expect to see close but inconsistent polling from now until the latter stages of the election. It is likely Fabrizio is correct about a forthcoming Harris bump, but things will start to stabilize once early voting begins in earnest come mid-October.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Pattern Continues — A new Pennsylvania poll again finds a pattern that is troubling for Republicans. While Donald Trump leads in the presidential contest, the Republican Senate candidate lags far behind the Democratic incumbent.

North Star Opinion Research, polling for the American Greatness Super PAC (July 20-23; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) tested the Pennsylvania electorate. While some of the respondents were interviewed before President Joe Biden announced his decision to withdraw from his re-election bid, we still see the sample members favoring former President Trump over Vice President Harris by a 47-45 percent margin. Conversely, in the Senate election, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) enjoys a 49-41 percent spread over Republican David McCormick.

The combined totals suggest a net 10-point swing between Trump’s standing in the national campaign and that of McCormick in the Senate race. Unless Republicans can find a better way of tying their Senate candidates’ support to that of Trump, the party’s goal of reaching 53 or 54 Senate seats in the next Congress will not come to fruition.

House

NM-2: Another Cliff-Hanger — After New Mexico’s southern 2nd Congressional District was converted into a Democratic seat in the 2021 redistricting map from one that favored Republicans, then-Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) lost her seat in 2022 to then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D) by a scant 50.3 – 49.7 percent margin.

A new poll suggests we will likely see a similarly close result in 2024. The Tarrance Group, polling for the Herrell campaign (July 11-14; 400 likely NM-2 voters; live interview) finds the former congresswoman clutching to a 48-46 percent edge over Rep. Vasquez. At this point, it is unclear which candidate will win the seat, but every available data point is again suggesting that this race will be extremely tight.

Trump Campaign Files FEC Complaint Against Harris; Gallego Expands Lead in Arizona; Senate Race Tightens in Nevada; Menendez Says He’s Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 24, 2024

President

Trump Campaign: Files FEC Complaint Against Harris — Former President Donald Trump’s campaign has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission arguing that Vice President Kamala Harris’s new campaign committee is not entitled to a direct transfer of the some $95-plus million that President Joe Biden held in his campaign account. Many believe that because she was on the presidential ticket her campaign committee would have access to the funds.

The Trump lawyers point out, however, that the official name of the presidential committee is simply, “Joe Biden for President.” The committee name has been changed to “Harris for President,” which the Trump operation claims is premature and an infraction of campaign finance law. Should the complaint before the commission end in a three to three tie, with the three Republicans voting to affirm the complaint and the three Democrats against, the Trump campaign could then take the measure to court.

Senate

Arizona: Gallego Expands Lead — Countering the last three July polls that found the Arizona Senate race tightening to within the polling margin of error, Public Policy Polling released new data (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; July 19-20; 736 registered Arizona voters; live interview & text) that posts US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to a seven-point advantage, 49-42 percent, over former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake.

In the presidential race, former President Trump leads Vice President Harris, 46-40 percent, again finding the familiar pattern of the Republican Senate nominee dropping behind the GOP ticket leader. In terms of approval rating, Trump scored a 47:49 percent favorability index. This compares well opposite Harris’ poor 38:55 percent positive to negative ratio.

Nevada: Race Tightens — British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies (polling for The Telegraph publication; July 16-18; 412 likely Nevada voters; part of a 5,005 sampling universe covering Nevada and seven other states) tested the Nevada Senate race and sees a tighter result than most recent polls. The ballot test found Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leading Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R), 41-37 percent. Recently, after a barrage of Rosen advertising, the senator had been posting leads as high as eight and 12 points.

New Jersey: Sen. Menendez to Officially Resign — After indicating that he would resign from the Senate after being found guilty of bribery but not providing any specifics, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) announced yesterday that he will leave the Senate on Aug. 20. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) immediately indicated that he will appoint a replacement for the outgoing senator to serve the balance of the term. It is unlikely that he will appoint Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who won the Democratic nomination after Menendez decided not to seek renomination and Gov. Murphy’s wife, Tammy Murphy, withdrew from the Senate race.

Sen. Menendez then filed as an Independent for the Senate, but that was a move largely to qualify to legally spend his campaign money on legal fees. As a non-candidate, he could not have used the funds for such an expenditure. It is now likely he will also withdraw his Independent candidacy. Rep. Kim is favored to defeat Republican businessman Curtis Bashaw in the November general election.

Sen. Bob Menendez Will Resign;
Q2 Senate Fundraising Report;
GOP Candidates Lead in MI-7, NY-19

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 18, 2024

Senate

New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D)

Sen. Bob Menendez: Will Resign — Reports coming from New Jersey indicate that convicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D), answering the calls of the New Jersey political leadership to resign his seat, will do so. Had he not agreed to leave, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) indicated that he would have introduced a resolution to expel Menendez.

When the senator leaves office, Gov. Phil Murphy (D) indicated he will make a caretaker appointment, meaning an individual that will only serve the balance of the current term. Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) won the Democratic nomination in the June 4 primary and is favored to win the general election in November. He, or whoever wins the general election, will then be sworn in with the new Congress next January.

Senate Fundraising: 2nd Qtr FEC Report — The Daily Kos Elections staff has once again completed their tabulation from the latest Federal Election Commission campaign finance reports, this for the 2nd quarter of the election year.

A total of 66 Senate candidates filed reports and cumulatively the group raised over $172,000,000 in the second quarter of 2024. The cycle-to-date fundraising figure for the aggregate group is just under $772,000,000. The individual campaign mean average figure is $2.6 million raised for the quarter and over $11.6 million for the election cycle. The median average per campaign is $8.5 million cycle-to-date.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) has raised the most for the 2024 campaign, more than $57.3 million, with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) next with $51.4 million in campaign receipts. The candidate with the most money in their campaign account at the June 30 filing deadline is Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) with $10.8 million cash-on-hand. The non-incumbent who has raised the most cycle-to-date is Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) with $38.8 million raised, but his opponent, former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) out-raised him in the second quarter, $5.4 million to $4.0 million.

House

MI-7: Republican Leads in Swing District — A new Noble Predictive Insights survey of central Michigan voters (July 8-11; 532 likely MI-7 general election voters; live interview & text) finds a rather surprising result on their 7th Congressional District ballot test question. Former state Sen. Tom Barrett (R) lost to Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the last election by a 52-46 percent margin but now leads former state Sen. Curtis Hertel (D) by a 48-41 percent spread that is beyond the polling margin of error.

The MI-7 campaign will be one of the most competitive in the nation. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates this seat R+4. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 49.3D – 47.9R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rate MI-7 as the sixth most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference and is clearly a top Republican conversion target.

NY-19: Rep. Molinaro Holds Definitive Lead: New York Congressman Marc Molinaro’s (R-Red Hook) campaign released the results of their latest Cygnal data organization poll (July 9-11; 420 registered NY-19 voters). According to the survey results, Rep. Molinaro, who defeated Democrat Josh Riley 50-48 percent in 2022, now leads his former and current opponent by a 47-38 percent in a 19th CD that was made slightly more Republican in the latest redistricting draw.

The Move to Replace Biden; Menendez Found Guilty; McIver Wins NJ-10 Special Election; Jungle Primary Outcome Predicted in Washington

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 17, 2024

President

President Joe Biden at the June 27 CNN debate.

Democratic National Convention: Further Activity to Open Convention — While the move to replace President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee was quieted temporarily in the aftermath of the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, California US Rep. Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael) is now circulating a “Dear Colleague” letter to encourage the Democratic National Committee to forego plans to virtually renominate President Biden. The process is scheduled to begin at the end of the month, but the Huffman proposal would instead allow the nomination roll call vote to occur at the Democratic National Convention as originally planned.

The congressman points out that the delegates should make the nomination decision at the convention to possibly allow another candidate, presumably Vice President Kamala Harris, to emerge as the party nominee, presumably to give the party a better chance of defeating Trump in November. Though delegates are bound by state law, they can, as a matter of conscience, abstain from voting. This could lead to multiple ballots until the various state laws and party rules that bind delegate votes to the candidate whom the state voters supported expire. At that point, the convention would be open to potentially nominate another candidate.

Senate

New Jersey: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) Found Guilty — Sen. Bob Menendez (D/I-NJ) was found guilty of bribery and corruption on all counts yesterday, and key Democratic leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Menendez’s home state governor, Phil Murphy (D), are calling for him to resign.

Other New Jersey officials yesterday making public statements encouraging Sen. Menendez to voluntarily leave office are the state’s junior senator, Cory Booker (D-NJ), Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), the Democratic nominee poised to succeed Menendez in the November election, developer Curtis Bashaw, the Republican US Senate nominee, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop (D), an announced 2025 gubernatorial candidate.

Should Menendez soon depart the Senate either through resignation or expulsion, Gov. Murphy has already said that he will make a caretaker appointment to immediately fill the seat. By losing Menendez, the Democratic majority would retreat to 50D-49R division for the short term.

House

NJ-10: McIver Wins Special Election — Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-Newark) passed away in late April leaving the 10th District temporarily unrepresented. Last night, as expected, Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver easily won the special Democratic primary over four opponents. She becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the Sept. 18 special general election and will then assume the seat to serve the remaining balance of the current term.

The local 10th Congressional District Democratic Committee will meet later this week to choose a regular election nominee. Though deceased, Payne posthumously won the Democratic primary, so now the party committee must replace him. The meeting was scheduled after the special primary so the committee could simply appoint the person who won the special primary as the nominee for the regular term.

Governor

Washington: Poll Predicts Jungle Primary Outcome — Survey USA just released a new Washington gubernatorial poll for KING-TV Channel 5 in Seattle, the Seattle Times newspaper, and the University of Washington Center for an Informed Public (July 10-13; 564 likely Washington jungle primary voters).

S-USA finds Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) leading the open all-party primary field with a 42 percent preference figure. Also predicted to qualify for the general election is former US representative and ex-King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R) who garnered 33 percent support. Next in the 28-candidate field is former School Board Member Semi Bird (R) with 11 percent, and state Sen. Mark Mullet (D-Issaquah) who posts four percent backing. The Washington primary is scheduled for Aug. 6. Gov. Jay Inslee (D) chose not to seek election to a fourth term.

Sen. J.D. Vance Selected by Trump as VP Nominee; Michigan GOP Senate Candidate Up in Poll; Disparity in Pennsylvania Survey; Minnesota GOP Unifies Before Primary

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 16, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump chose Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate for the 2024 election.

Sen. JD Vance: Trump-Vance 2024 — Former President Donald Trump has chosen Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate for the 2024 election. Much analysis has occurred about the Vance selection in the past few hours, but what is the Ohio process to fill a vacant Senate seat if the Trump-Vance ticket is elected?

Just before being sworn in as vice president, Sen. Vance would resign his seat. Sen. Vance was elected in 2022 and will again be in-cycle in 2028. Therefore, since Ohio is one of 36 states that allow gubernatorial appointments to fill vacancies, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then choose a replacement until the next general election.

This means the individual chosen will be appointed in 2025 and face the voters for a confirmation vote in the 2026 election. Assuming the appointed individual wants to seek election to the seat, the person would run in 2026 to fill the balance of the term, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint.

Senate

Michigan: Ex-Rep. Rogers Up in Primary Poll — Former Michigan US Rep. Mike Rogers, now a candidate for the Republican Senate nomination, yesterday released an internal Tarrance Group survey (July 8-10; 500 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; live interview). The ballot test finds Rogers breaking the 50 percent threshold (52 percent), substantially ahead of former US Rep. Justin Amash (Libertarian) and businessman Sandy Pensler, both of whom pulled a 14 percent support figure. Physician Sherry O’Donnell posted five percent preference.

The Michigan primary is Aug. 6. The Republican primary winner will almost assuredly face US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the general election. Incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring after serving what will be four full terms.

Pennsylvania: Siena College/NYT New Statewide Survey — The new Siena College/New York Times Keystone State poll (July 9-11; 872 likely Pennsylvania voters) again reports a major difference between the presidential and senatorial preferences. The poll was taken two days before the assassination attempt on former President Trump, so it will be interesting to see if the next set of polling results move closer to him. According to this data, Trump holds a 48-45 percent edge when leaners are included and 42-40 percent on the definitive vote.

Turning to the Senate race, however, tells a much different partisan story. In this poll, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) holds a lead beyond the polling margin of error over Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R), 50-42 percent, or a net 11-point swing from the Trump support figure to Casey’s. This type of pattern has been consistent in most Senate races where Trump is leading a particular state count but the GOP Senate candidate lags well behind the party standard bearer’s benchmark polling totals.

House

MN-2: GOP Unifies Before Primary — With the Minnesota primary approaching on Aug. 13, the GOP will now become united behind southern 2nd District congressional candidate Joe Teirab, a former federal prosecutor. Yesterday, Teirab’s primary opponent, attorney Taylor Rahm, announced he was leaving the race to accept a position with the national Trump campaign.

Defeating incumbent Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) will be a tall task even in a swing district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+1. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as the 14th-most vulnerable in the Democratic Conference. In the last two elections, Rep. Craig garnered 50.9 percent in the 2022 election and 48.2 percent, so she will certainly be a GOP conversion target this year. Despite her close re-election percentages, this is still a tough race for any Republican.

Pre-Trump Assassination Attempt Polling Metrics; Sen. Baldwin Up & Down in Wisconsin Race; A Very Close IL-11 Race; Dead Heat in Delaware

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 15, 2024

President

Polling Benchmarks: Pre-Trump Assassination Attempt — At the beginning today of the Republican National Committee, the nation is recovering from a near miss — Saturday’s assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump’s life. This, plus the traditional convention polling “bump” that typically helps the party nominee, should soon place the targeted Republican well ahead of President Joe Biden in national general election surveys, but how long will the momentum last?

We start by looking at the current polls, noting that all of the succeeding national surveys were taken prior to the assassination attempt. In five studies conducted during the July 7-11 period from five different pollsters (Fox News; NBC News; NPR/Marist College; ABC News/Washington Post; and Noble Predictive Insights) Trump is holding leads of between one and three points in the national ballot tests. It is from these points against which next week’s polls should be measured.

Senate

Wisconsin: Another Different Result — The Wisconsin Senate race polling had, for the most part, been stagnant for many weeks with Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) holding a significant lead over GOP businessman Eric Hovde. In the past two weeks, however, a plethora of five surveys were released including the most recent poll report coming from North Star Opinion Research for the American Greatness organization. This study (July 6-10; 600 likely Wisconsin voters; live interview) sees Sen. Baldwin returning to an eight-point lead over Hovde, 49-41 percent.

In all, since June 18 to July 11, Sen. Baldwin has held leads as high as seven and eight points, but then slips all the way back into a tie with her Republican challenger before soaring again. Hovde led in none of the polls.

House

IL-11: Surprisingly Close — Illinois’ 11th Congressional District is an outer suburban seat located west of Chicago that begins in the Crystal Lake region to the north and moves south to include the cities of Naperville and Aurora. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+10, while the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians set the partisan lean at 51.8D – 43.4R. President Biden carried the district in 2020 with a 57-41 percent margin. Eight-term Rep. Bill Foster (D-Naperville) won his only race under the redistricted 11th CD with a 56-44% margin.

Therefore, it is surprising to see little-known music school founder Jerry Evans (R) already trailing by only a 41-34 percent margin according to a Cygnal poll (July 2-3; 309 likely IL-11 general election voters; live interview & text) conducted for the Evans campaign. It is these types of polls currently surfacing that show competitive races developing in what should be safely Democratic seats that are largely the reason behind so many House Democrats coming forward to call for President Biden to withdraw from the race.

Governor

Delaware: Dead Heat Dem Primary — Candidate filing for the open governor’s race closed last week, and already we see a dead heat developing before the Sept. 10 Democratic primary. Slingshot Polling (conducted for the Citizens for a New Delaware Way Super PAC; July 5-9; 446 registered Delaware Democratic voters) forecasts a 27-27 percent tie between Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long and New Castle County Executive Matt Mayer with National Wildlife Federation president Collin O’Mara only reaching the seven percent support mark. The Citizens for a New Delaware Way is an organization attempting to defeat Hall-Long.

Democrats will hold the position in the general election, so winning the open Democratic primary is tantamount to claiming the state house in November.