Category Archives: Senate

Georgia Senate Turning

Republican David Perdue (above) has fumbled the ball recently, both in accusing opponent Michelle Nunn of having an unexplained role in funneling money to terrorist organizations and then saying he is “proud” of his business record for outsourcing jobs.

Despite the perceived gaffes, the polling was still showing him holding a small lead across the board until now. Survey USA (Oct. 10-13; 563 likely Georgia voters) yesterday released new figures placing Democrat Nunn ahead 48-45 percent, her first lead of the campaign. But, is this the formation of a new trend or a mere blip?

The same poll tested the top of the ticket and the down ballot races. In the governor’s race, S-USA finds what many pollsters have, Continue reading >

Key Senate Battleground States Polling Reviews Show GOP Trend

The best understanding of a political campaign’s status involves analyzing polling trends, rather than individual polls that simply capture the a snapshot of a particular point in time.

Using such a model, we take a look at the key races to determine what the long-term trends may be telling us about the final outcome. According to these trends, even with losses in Kansas and North Carolina, Republicans would likely capture the Senate majority, gaining a net of seven seats, reaching 52 members.

Alaska
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 7
Number of pollsters: 7
Number showing Dan Sullivan (R) leading Sen. Mark Begich (D): 7
Average Sullivan lead: 4.8%

Arkansas
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 7
Number of pollsters: 7
Number showing Tom Cotton (R) leading Sen. Mark Pryor (D): 4
Number showing Sen. Mark Pryor (D) leading Tom Cotton (R): 3
Average Cotton lead: 5.8%
Average Pryor lead: 2.7%

Colorado
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 8
Continue reading >

GOP Conversion of South Dakota Senate Seat in Jeopardy

A new Survey USA poll (Oct. 1-5; 616 likely South Dakota voters) conducted for various South Dakota news media outlets indicates that former governor and Republican US Senate candidate Mike Rounds faces a potentially imposing threat from an unlikely source.

Since the South Dakota Senate race is one of the three top GOP conversion opportunities that would replace a veteran retiring Democrat in what is normally a red state – in this case three-term Sen. Tim Johnson – Republican majority chances will likely be dealt a death blow if Rounds fails to come through. Now with a controversy brewing Continue reading >

Kansas May be Slipping Away

A new NBC News/Marist College poll provides some dire news for Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. Everyone knows the senator is enduring a rough election cycle, largely because of the rancorous Kansas political climate, a large number of the senator’s own unforced errors, and a shrewd coalition move between local Democrats and Independents. But this particular poll (released Oct. 6; 1,282 Kansas residents; 1,097 registered Kansas voters; 636 likely Kansas voters) places Roberts in his largest deficit situation of the campaign.

According to the data, Roberts trails Independent Greg Orman 38-48 percent among those in the likely voter category, and 36-46 percent within the registered voter segment. NBC/Marist has been among the more inaccurate pollsters in past election cycles, so their sounding the political death knell for a candidate is not necessarily taken as a sign of things to come, but this particular survey should be given greater credence.

Though one could question its methodology, the end result appears sound. The pollsters testing of residents, the sampling period not being disclosed – just that the questions may have been asked in October (the survey is labeled October 2014 and it is certainly released during such a time frame, but that doesn’t necessarily mean all the interviews were conducted in the early portion of this month) – and, we don’t know the duration Continue reading >

Boomerang Effect Hitting a Number of Campaigns

Midway through the election cycle it appeared a solid bet that at least four candidates who would normally be favorites were headed for losses. But, predictions of such demise are now being proven premature.

First-term North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan (D) appeared doomed, unable to break 42 percent support in any poll, and was clearly sliding down a pathway toward defeat.

Democrats, in the person of Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA-1), were odds-on favorites to replace retiring Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin (D) but he, too, has experienced a reversal of political fortunes.

Republican Bruce Rauner was running consistently ahead of Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn and was on a clear track toward victory even in the heavily Democratic state. But the electoral patterns are beginning to reverse, and now Quinn has a fighting chance to survive.

Upon his indictment on federal charges relating to his restaurant business dealings prior to being elected to Congress, Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY-11) looked to be headed toward the political scrap heap. But he is proving a much tougher “out” than the local Democrats originally perceived.
Continue reading >