Category Archives: House

Could Boebert Succeed Buck? Candidates Settle in MT-2;
No Runoff in NC-6; Baseball Owner Leads in Ohio Senate Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 15, 2024

House

Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

CO-4: Clarifying the Situation — Several reports are circulating around the internet suggesting that Colorado US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) is ineligible to run in the special election to replace now resigning Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor). Such a statement is incorrect. Boebert weeks ago announced that she would seek Buck’s open 4th District, thus bypassing running in a tough re-election campaign in her own 3rd CD. Therefore, the legal eligibility is no different for a special election. Should she run in and win the special, she would then have to resign her 3rd District seat, thus likely requiring another special election to fill that vacancy.

Practically speaking, however, it is unlikely that Boebert will run in the special election, because a 4th District party leadership committee is unlikely to choose her. Under Colorado law, the political parties select the nominees to fill vacancies, meaning there is just one election for voters to pick the replacement. Gov. Jared Polis (D) has already said he will schedule the special election concurrently with the June 25 state primary.

Also, since the special and the regular primary is on the same day, there will be no incumbency advantage for the regular term. Should a different person win the special and regular primary, the two would not face each other. If the special election winner failed to win the regular primary, that individual would only serve the balance of the term and not appear on the general election ballot. Certainly, the Buck resignation has changed the District 4 political dynamics, but it does not particularly affect Rep. Boebert more adversely than any of the other candidates.

MT-2: Candidates File — Considering Rep. Matt Rosendale’s (R-Glendive) indecision about whether he would run for the House, Senate, or for no office, the large Republican field of potential candidates interested in running for Montana’s 2nd Congressional District were in a state of flux. Now that we know the seat will be open for the 2024 election and candidate filing has closed, we see nine contenders for the post. Three current or former statewide officeholders are in the GOP field: State Auditor Troy Downing, Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, and former at-large Congressman Denny Rehberg.

Also, in the Republican race are state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City), ex-state senators Ric Holden and Ed Walker, former state Rep. Joel Krautter, pharmacist Kyle Austin, and retired DEA agent Stacy Zinn. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the MT-2 seat R+30, and former President Donald Trump posted a 62-35 percent victory here in 2020. Therefore, the June 4 Republican plurality primary winner becomes the prohibitive favorite for the general election.

NC-6: Walker Won’t Force Runoff; McDowell Unofficially Wins Seat — Former Congressman Mark Walker, who finished second to lobbyist and former congressional aide Addison McDowell in the March 5 Republican primary announced Wednesday that he will not pursue his entitled runoff election. In North Carolina, a candidate must receive 30 percent of the vote to win a nomination outright. In this election, McDowell posted 26 percent of the vote, and Walker 24 percent.

Instead of continuing his congressional campaign, Walker announced that he has accepted former President Trump’s offer to become the national campaign’s Director of Outreach for Faith and Minority Communities.

The move means that McDowell, who Trump endorsed in the Republican primary, wins the congressional seat. Post-2023 redistricting, Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) decided not to seek re-election because she saw no path for victory. The Democrats then didn’t even file a candidate. It is still possible, however, for an Independent or minor party candidate to file. Their deadline is May 5. Even if one or more should run, McDowell’s general election victory is virtually assured. Therefore, North Carolina’s 6th District becomes the Republicans’ first unofficial conversion victory for the 2024 regular election cycle.

Senate

Ohio: Dolan Takes Lead in New Poll — Emerson College polled the tight Ohio Senate primary (March 7-10; 443 likely Ohio Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and finds a change on the leader board. For the first time in any survey, state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a minority owner of the Cleveland Guardians professional baseball club, has taken the Republican primary lead. According to the Emerson findings, Sen. Dolan posts a 26-23-16 percent edge over businessman Bernie Moreno and Secretary of State Frank LaRose, respectively.

Also, this week Gov. Mike DeWine (R) endorsed Sen. Dolan, which may counter to a degree former President Trump’s endorsement of Moreno. In the 2022 Senate race, Sen. Dolan came on strong at the end and fell just one point short of finishing second. In this race, which will be decided in the Ohio plurality primary on Tuesday, he again appears to be finishing the campaign with momentum. Tuesday’s winner will then face Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the most important 2024 national Senate races.

No Labels Party – Spoiler Alert? Sen. Menendez Says He’s Out; Rosendale Out, Again; Santos to Run Again

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 14, 2024

President

Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan

No Labels Party: Votes to Field Candidate — On Friday, the No Labels Party members voted to move forward with fielding a presidential ticket in this year’s election, but apparently the organization is not close to identifying who might be those contenders. Some within the organization suggested nominating former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R), who is critical of former President Donald Trump.

If No Labels were to go in this direction, it would signal that they are trying to be a spoiler — despite publicly saying that is not what their intention is — i.e., using a figure such as Duncan to draw votes away from Trump in the critical state of Georgia, which would give President Joe Biden a strong chance of again winning the state, thus assuring his re-election. Though the group wants to move forward with nominating a presidential candidate, the members are apparently a long way from selecting a ticket and gaining agreement from those who they might eventually choose.

Senate

New Jersey: Sen. Menendez Won’t Seek Re-Election — Facing multiple federal charges and consistent polling data showing him only with single-digit support within his own party, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) announced on Friday that he will not seek re-election later this year. This leaves the Senate Democratic field ostensibly to US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and Tammy Murphy, the state’s First Lady.

Sen. Menendez now becomes the ninth incumbent not to seek re-election in 2024, a figure that represents more than one-quarter of the 34 in-cycle senators. Of the nine, six are Democrats, two are Republican, and one, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who is now an Independent. Despite the large number of openings, it appears only two, Arizona and Michigan, will be competitive in the general election while three, Maryland, New Jersey, and Utah will see highly volatile Democratic (MD, NJ) and Republican (UT) primary elections.

House

MT-2: Rosendale Out, Again — Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), in a statement saying he has received recent death threats amidst rumors of an extra-marital affair, has now decided he will not file for re-election. Yesterday was the Montana candidate filing deadline. MT-2 again joins the open seat ranks, as it did when Rosendale announced his short-lived US Senate campaign in February, which lasted only a week. He will retire from the House after serving two full terms, one as the at-large representative, and the other from District 2 since Montana earned a new seat in 2021 reapportionment.

State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen announced before Rep. Rosendale decided to step aside that she would continue running for the House. State Auditor Troy Downing confirmed his congressional candidacy shortly after the congressman’s retirement announcement.

It is expected that most, if not all, of the seven other announced contenders, including former Congressman Denny Rehberg and state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City), will continue with their congressional campaigns. The Montana primary election will be held June 4. The new Republican nominee will be a lock to win the general election in an eastern Montana district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+30.

NY-1: Santos to Run Again — Expelled US Rep. George Santos (R), announced that he will indeed be on the ballot to return to Congress. He will not challenge Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), who replaced him in New York’s 3rd Congressional District, but rather will oppose 1st District freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County). Santos calls LaLota an “empty suit RINO” (Republican In Name Only). LaLota was especially critical of Santos during his short tenure in office.

The new redistricting map makes the 1st District more Republican, but it is highly unlikely the new configuration will allow Santos to deny Rep. LaLota renomination. The New York primary is scheduled for June 25.

Last Night’s Primary Results; Rep. Buck to Resign; California Projections; Close Polls in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 13, 2024

President

Primary/Caucus Results — Primaries were held in three states last night, and even without results from the Hawaii caucuses, both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump exceeded the bound delegate vote requirement to score first ballot nominations. Therefore, both men become their party’s “presumptive nominee,” meaning they will become the official standard bearer at the respective party conventions in July (Republicans) and August (Democrats).

The Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington primaries went as expected with both Biden and Trump winning with landslide totals against opponents who appear on the ballot but who have withdrawn from the race.

Mississippi was the state that held its full ballot primary last night. Sen. Roger Wicker (R) won renomination against two opponents with just over 60 percent of the vote. Wicker won all but 10 counties in the state from a total universe of 82. All four Magnolia State US House incumbents were either unopposed for renomination or easily won. Freshman Rep. Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) had two GOP opponents, and still surpassed 73 percent of the vote. All four: Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/Tupelo), Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton), Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), and Mr. Ezell, now become prohibitive favorites to win again in November.

House

Rep. Ken Buck / Photo by Gage Skidmore

CO-4: Rep. Buck to Resign — Colorado US Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor), who had previously made public his intentions not to seek a sixth term later this year, announced yesterday that he will resign much sooner — on March 22. The move initiates the calling of a special congressional election — the fourth in the country prior to the regular general election. Gov. Jared Polis (D) responded that he will schedule the special vote concurrently with the state’s June 25 primary election.

In Colorado, special election nominations are handled through vacancy committees that the local political parties construct. This means the voters will go to the polls only once to fill the balance of the current term.

This system likely plays to Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Silt) detriment. It is highly unlikely that the District 4 vacancy committee members will choose her as the party nominee considering she is still the District 3 incumbent. This also means the dozen announced candidates already vying to replace Rep. Buck will see one of their colleagues likely chosen for the special.

California: More Finalists Projected — As the California ballot counting process moves laboriously along, the Associated Press is projecting that three more candidates will qualify for the general election from the top-two jungle primary. In the Los Angeles-anchored 34th District, both incumbent Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) and movie executive David Kim (D) will again advance into the general election. This will be the third consecutive election in which the two have faced each other in a double-Democratic contest. In 2022, Rep. Gomez registered only a 51-49 percent general election win over Kim, so another close race is expected later this year.

In the open South San Francisco Bay seat from which veteran Rep. Anna Eshoo (D- Atherton) is retiring, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) is assured of advancing to the November election, but his eventual opponent has still not been decided. In second place is San Mateo Supervisor and former state Sen. Joe Simitian (D), who is only 749 votes ahead of Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) with approximately 26,000 ballots remaining to be counted.

Whoever wins the special will have a major advantage in the subsequent November regular election if the primary electorate chooses someone in the regular primary other than whom the vacancy committee decided upon. Another option the committee may have is to select someone who agrees not to seek a full term. Therefore, we will see more political drama occurring in Colorado as the campaign to replace Rep. Buck continues to unfold.

Governor

North Carolina: Two More Close Polls — Now that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D) are the official gubernatorial nominees of their respective political parties after last Tuesday’s primary vote, Survey USA and the Cygnal firm went into the field to test the general election between the two new official nominees.

The S-USA poll, conducted for WRAL-TV in Raleigh (March 6-9; 850 NC adults; 736 registered North Carolina voters; 598 likely North Carolina general election voters; online), sees AG Stein leading Lt. Gov. Robinson by a tight 44-42 percent margin, which is in the consistent realm of previously released surveys. When asked about presidential preference, the sampling universe would favor former President Trump over President Biden by a 50-45 percent margin in this most critical of swing states.

The Cygnal survey was conducted during the March 6-7 period (600 likely North Carolina voters; live interview & text) and produced a slightly different outcome. While projecting a similarly close result as Survey USA, Cygnal sees Lt. Gov. Robinson leading the gubernatorial race with a 44-39 percent spread. The latter firm also finds former President Trump holding a five point lead over President Biden but with a slightly different 45-40 percent count.

Four Primaries Today; Fong Advances; Trump Endorses Nancy Mace; Indiana Governor’s Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 12, 2024

President

Primaries Today: Four States — Voters go to the polls today in Georgia, Hawaii (Republican Caucus only), Mississippi (full primary), and Washington.

In all, there are 161 Republican delegates at stake in the four states, and with former President Donald Trump already having 1,078 bound delegates of the 1,215 he needs to score a first ballot victory, securing just over 85 percent of the available delegates tonight will allow him to clinch “presumptive nominee” status. This means he will have enough bound delegates to claim a first ballot victory at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee during mid-July. For President Joe Biden, it appears he will clinch “presumptive nominee” status next week in the March 19 primaries.

In Mississippi, a quiet night is expected regarding the full ballot primary. Sen. Roger Wicker (R) faces two Republican challengers, including state Rep. Dan Eubanks (R-Walls), but there is little doubt the incumbent will be renominated outright for a fourth term tonight. In House races, each of the state’s four incumbents: Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/ Tupelo), Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton), Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), and Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula), are seeking re-election and only Ezell faces an intra-party challenge.

The first-term congressman, who unseated then-Rep. Steven Palazzo in the 2022 Republican nomination battle, faces two Republican opponents. Businessman Carl Boyanton, who finished fifth in the 2022 congressional primary with just 6.2 percent of the vote, returns for a re-match with Ezell, and retired Army veteran Michael McGill joins them. Rep. Ezell is expected to easily win renomination tonight, thus avoiding an April 2 runoff election. Should any candidate fail to reach majority support in the initial primary, a runoff election then becomes mandatory.

House

CA-20: Fong Officially Advances — NBC News is projecting that state Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) will advance into the regular general election from the still unfolding California jungle primary. Fong has 38.8 percent of the votes counted with approximately 26 percent of the ballots still outstanding.

Ironically, the group of candidates may be on the ballot again, in the March 19 special election to immediately replace resigned former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield), before the two regular general election participants are officially certified. Under the laborious California ballot counting process, the state still has another 31 days to count and then certify the final results.

Currently in second position is Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux (R) with 25.8 percent, just ahead of Democratic educator and 2022 congressional nominee Marissa Wood who posts 22.0 percent of the vote. A total of 11 candidates are on the jungle primary ballot.

Should Sheriff Bourdeaux hold second place, a double-Republican regular general election will then occur in November. For the special election, with nine of the candidates competing, including Fong and Bourdeaux along with Wood, the special election result is expected to produce a similar result to the one just witnessed.

SC-1: Trump Endorses Rep. Mace — In 2022, former President Donald Trump endorsed former state Rep. Katie Arrington against Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), saying the incumbent is “a terrible candidate,” and she was renominated with only 53 percent of the vote.

Trump is singing a different tune for the 2024 election. Yesterday, he announced his support for Rep. Mace as she again faces a serious primary election opponent. Saying she is “a strong conservative voice for South Carolina’s 1st District,” Trump now endorses Mace as she faces former Haley cabinet secretary Catherine Templeton, who is campaigning from the congresswoman’s right political flank. Three other Republicans, including the representative’s former chief of staff, are also announced candidates.

If no one receives majority support in the June 11 primary election, a short schedule runoff will occur on June 25. The US Supreme Court is also considering a lawsuit that would declare this district an illegal racial gerrymander. If the court rules such, the 1st CD will have to be redrawn and that could lead to a postponed primary.

Governor

Indiana: Sen. Braun Way Up in Governor’s Poll — A new Emerson College statewide Indiana Republican primary survey (March 2-5; 526 likely Indiana Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds US Sen. Mike Braun (R) cruising in his quest for the state’s open governorship. The Emerson data finds Sen. Braun posting a 34-7-7-5 percent split over Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, venture capitalist Eric Doden, and former State Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers.

This data tracks with reported internal Braun data from the Mark It Red polling firm that records a 41-12 percent split over Lt. Gov. Crouch. The Indiana plurality primary is scheduled for May 7. The eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite to then win the general election in November.

Fong: A Winner Without an Office?

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 11, 2024

House

Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) / Photo by Kevin Sanders for California Globe

California state Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) may win three elections in the coming weeks and months, but not have an office.

Fong is running for the US House, attempting to replace resigned former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in their central California congressional district. On Super Tuesday, he placed first in the regular jungle primary and will advance into the general election. He was also on the ballot for state assembly and, as an unopposed candidate, advances to the general election. In about a week, on March 19, largely the same group of candidates will again go before the voters in the special congressional election to fill the balance of the current term from which McCarthy resigned.

Yet, even if he wins all of these elections, it is unclear that Fong can take office. When McCarthy resigned from the House, Assemblyman Fong had already filed for re-election to his current position and had been certified for the ballot. Fong attempted to file for the congressional office but was thwarted because in California candidates are prohibited from simultaneously running for more than one office.

The Secretary of State ruled that since he had already been certified as an Assembly candidate, Fong was barred from running for Congress. California is also one of the states that doesn’t allow candidates to withdraw from the ballot once certified.

Responding to the Secretary of State’s ruling, Fong challenged in court his banning from the congressional campaign and the judge ruled in his favor. Therefore, despite California not allowing candidates to run for offices simultaneously, he appeared on Tuesday’s ballot for both positions. The Secretary of State, Democrat Shirley Weber, then appealed the Superior Court judge’s ruling, hence creating more uncertainty surrounding Fong’s political status.

Secretary Weber’s position is not without merit. She was simply following the state law as it is written. Whether the appellate court agrees with the lower court ruling remains to be seen. Until they rule, however, the situation remains in a state of flux.

Therefore, the two Fong campaigns simultaneously move forward, and once Super Tuesday’s vote is finally certified, at some point within the next 35 days under the state’s election calendar, Fong will be on the general election ballot for both the US House and the California Assembly.

In 11 days, nine candidates including Fong will compete in the special congressional election. If one of the contenders receives majority support on March 19 the individual will immediately assume the office. If we have a plurality finish, which is likely because Fong, coming in first place on Tuesday within largely the same field as is featured in the special election, only received 37.5 percent of the vote (an estimated 60 percent of the ballots have been counted and recorded), a number far from the 50 percent majority threshold.

Second place is a tight contest between Republican Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux and Democratic educator Marissa Ward and it is unclear at this point which will advance. Thus, almost nothing is certain in this district after most of the votes have now been counted.

If the special congressional vote follows a similar pattern, a runoff election will be held on May 21. At that point, the winner will assume the office and serve the balance of the current term.

Should Fong win the special election either on March 19 or in May, he would have to resign his assembly seat to assume the congressional position. This would further complicate matters for the general election because he would still be on the ballot for both offices if the appellate court hasn’t yet ruled.

Should the appellate court rule against him after winning the congressional special thus not allowing him to assume the office and does so after Fong resigns from the Assembly, he could be left without any office at least temporarily even after winning election to both positions.

Creating a vacancy in the assembly seat would then require Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) to call a special election to fill the balance of that particular term, but whoever wins the post would not be able to run in the regular election because the primary has already been held. Therefore, Fong, after winning his unopposed race for state Assembly in November, would have to resign for a second time.

Additionally, the person winning the assembly special election would then have to run in another special election to serve the succeeding regular term after Fong resigns again.

As you can see, filling California’s 20th Congressional District is becoming a much more complicated prospect than one normally sees for a vacated seat.

No Labels Party Announcement; California House Primaries Projected; Close IL-12 Poll;
Rosendale Challenger in Montana

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 8, 2024

President

No Labels Party: Announcement Today — Later today, the centrist No Labels Party, the leadership of which has been working to secure ballot position around the country, is scheduled to make an announcement about their future plans. It is unlikely that they will announce a presidential ticket to compete with President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and others, but they are likely to reveal the voting preference of their members to move forward with entering the presidential campaign. If so, the declaration of the presidential ticket will come at a later date.

House

California: House Primaries Projected — The Associated Press has projected several more qualifiers in California House races from the all-party jungle primary. In Rep. Adam Schiff’s (D-Burbank) open 30th District, with 68 percent of the vote counted, Assemblywoman Laura Friedman (D-Burbank) has qualified for the general election, topping a field of 15 candidates. She now becomes a prohibitive favorite in the general election from a Los Angeles County congressional district where President Biden recorded 72 percent of the vote in 2020.

Fortunately for Friedman, Republican Alex Balekian is projected to have topped state Sen. Anthony Portantino (D-Glendale) for the second qualifying position. Balekian uniting the small number of district Republicans was enough to propel him past a fractured Democratic field. In the general election, however, a Republican has almost no chance of winning the seat.

Farther south in San Diego, the AP has projected that auto dealer and 2022 state Senate finalist Matt Gunderson (R) has qualified as Rep. Mike Levin’s (D-San Juan Capistrano) general election opponent. Unlike District 30, the San Diego-Orange County 49th District is much more competitive. Rep. Levin will again be favored to win the general election, but this contest could become close. Though losing a state Senate race in 2022 with similar boundaries to District 49, Gunderson attracted 48 percent of the vote. Rep. Levin won his previous re-election with 52.6 percent of the vote against frequent congressional candidate Brian Maryott (R).

IL-12: Close GOP Primary Poll Released — Illinois pollster M3 Strategies released a survey of the 12th Congressional District Republican primary between Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) and former state senator and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey. The poll (March 2-4; 473 likely IL-12 voters) projects Congressman Bost to be holding only a 45-39 percent edge over Bailey. When undecideds are pushed for an answer, Bost’s lead expands to 54-46 percent, largely on the strength of the oldest voting demographic segment.

The 12th District is one of three seats in Illinois that will elect a Republican, so this race will be decided in the March 19 Republican primary.

MT-2: Rosendale Primary Building — Rep. Matt Rosendale’s (R-Glendive) jump in and out of the Senate race and lack of clarity over whether he would seek re-election after leaving the statewide contest has led to him having at least one major primary opponent. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, one of nine Republicans who had announced their congressional candidacy when Rosendale appeared headed for the Senate race, declared yesterday that she will file as a candidate on Monday and force a primary challenge.

None of the other candidates have definitively said they are leaving or staying in the congressional race, so Monday’s Montana candidate filing deadline will prove interesting. Former Congressman Denny Rehberg, State Auditor Troy Downing, and state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City) are among the contenders who have yet to confirm or deny that they are continuing their congressional campaign now that the incumbent has decided to return.

Arizona Sen. Sinema Out of Running; More Super Tuesday News

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 7, 2023

Senate

Arizona: Sen. Sinema Bows Out — In addition to all the election results on Super Tuesday, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), not seeing a victory path for herself, announced that she would not seek a second term. The Independent senator thanked Arizonans in a video message (above) for allowing her to serve for 20 years in the state House of Representatives, the US House, and the US Senate. At least in the short term, the Sinema departure appears to give Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) the inside track to winning the Arizona Senate seat over former GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake.

The Sinema retirement decision means there are eight open Senate seats among the 34 statewide campaigns in the current election cycle.

President

Nikki Haley, Dean Phillips: Exit Presidential Race — Yesterday brought two campaign suspension announcements that at least unofficially clinch the respective Democratic and Republican presidential nominations for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Both Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R) indicated they are ceasing campaign activity, and thus ending any competition in the presidential nomination campaign.

Trump looks set to become the Republican presumptive party nominee on March 12, while President Biden will do so on March 19. The presumptive nominee is the individual who has secured a majority of legally bound first ballot delegates (1,968 for the Democrats; 1,215 for the Republicans), which guarantees a candidate the party nomination.

Rep. Phillips, who is not running for re-election to the House, publicly endorsed President Biden, while Haley did not announce support for Trump in her suspension declaration address, and said, “It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that.”

Super Tuesday: GOP Turnout Overwhelms — In looking at the 14 Super Tuesday states where both parties held nomination events, in only two, California and Massachusetts, did more Democrats vote than Republicans. Among the more than 14.65 million people who voted in a major party Super Tuesday event, 60.6 percent chose to vote in the Republican primary. In even stalwart Democratic states such as Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Vermont, and Virginia, more voters cast a Republican ballot than a Democratic. This is a bad sign for President Biden, as primary turnout often is a good indicator of voter enthusiasm.

Republican Leadership: Sen. Barrasso Not Running for Leader — Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso announced yesterday that he would not join the Republican Caucus battle for Leader to replace Mitch McConnell (R-KY). Instead, Sen. Barrasso announced that he will run for the Caucus’s number two slot, that of Senate Republican Whip. In the race for Leader are Sens. John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX). Reports suggest that Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) is also considering entering the race. Of the three potential Leader campaign combatants, Sen. Scott is the only one seeking re-election this year.