Category Archives: House

Mississippi Rep. Bennie Thompson Faces Attack by Younger Challenger

(Challenger Evan Turnage ad)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, February 20, 2026

House

As we draw closer to the March primary elections, one Democratic challenger unveiled a new media ad this week aimed at denying renomination to one of his party’s congressional stalwarts.

Evan Turnage, a former congressional staff member to both Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), returned to his native Mississippi to challenge veteran Congressman Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton).

Turnage is one of a growing number of younger Democratic candidates opposing elderly veteran US House members and making their length of service a campaign issue. Rep. Thompson, who was initially elected in 1992, is 78 years old.

Turnage turned up the heat against the 17-term incumbent and former chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee with his new television ad (see above). The strategy behind the media tactic is to create a negative image of Rep. Thompson for failing to deliver for the home constituency.

In the ad, which Turnage narrates, Rep. Thompson’s challenger says that he is from “the poorest district in the poorest state in the country.” He then indicates that Mississippi’s 2nd District held that same distinction when Congressman Thompson was first elected, at a time when Turnage was one year old, and that it still remains true today.

The ad continues with film of dilapidated housing and suggesting that the constituency is downtrodden. Turnage emphasizes that Rep. Thompson’s long tenure in Congress has not improved living conditions, and the challenger promises to do better.

In his media release unveiling the ad, Mr. Turnage says that his campaign is making a “six figure buy.” This is interesting because his year-end Federal Election Commission report shows only $53,877 cash-on-hand from just over $65,000 raised for the campaign. It’s possible that he had a strong fundraising month of January, otherwise the media buy will be on the lower end of his promised spectrum.

The Mississippi primary is scheduled for March 10th. Logistics professor Pertis Williams is also a Democratic congressional candidate, so theoretically a runoff election is possible in this race. If no one secures majority support, the top two finishers would advance to an April 7 runoff election.

It is highly unlikely that the votes will break almost evenly with Williams taking enough to deny the leader 50 percent, but this result is mathematically possible. Chances are very strong, however, that the nomination contest will be decided on March 10 and in Thompson’s favor.

The 2nd District lies in Mississippi’s western delta region and is the state’s lone Democratic congressional district. The CD houses 28 counties and parts of two others. The population centers include part of the city of Jackson, Mississippi’s state capital, Greenville along the delta, Yazoo City, and the definitive Civil War battle site of Vicksburg. Geographically, the seat stretches almost from the Tennessee border to just short of Louisiana, and along the western Mississippi border shared with Arkansas and Louisiana.

The population is majority Black, 62.2 percent, and 34.3 percent White. To substantiate Turnage’s claim about the district, the median household income is $43,811 according to the Data USA figures. The district’s poverty rate is 25.9 percent. The household income figure is less than half the national median level of $97,261. The Mississippi median income number is $70,821 and the state continues to rank last in national household income. Therefore, Turnage’s claim that MS-2 is the poorest district in the poorest state is verified.

Including Turnage’s challenge to Rep. Thompson, 13 Democratic incumbents over 70 years of age are seeking re-election and face credible much younger primary challengers. The additional dozen are: Reps. Mike Thompson (D-CA), Doris Matsui (D-CA), Mark DeSaulnier (D-CA), Maxine Waters (D-CA), John Larson (D-CT), David Scott (D-GA), Ed Case (D-HI), Kweisi Mfume (D-MD), Steve Cohen (D-TN), Al Green (D-TX), Sylvia Garcia (D-TX), and Don Beyer (D-VA).

At this point, each of these Democratic incumbents is favored for renomination, but the combined quality of their opponents suggests that the races should be monitored throughout the primary election cycle for potential upset possibilities.

Redistricting:
New York, Utah, and Virginia

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, February 19, 2026

Redistricting

Redistricting news is coming to the forefront in three states, New York, Utah, and Virginia. Today, we will review the latest information.

New York

Empire State Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis (R-Staten Island) previously filed a lawsuit appealing a lower court ruling that declared her 11th Congressional District as a racial gerrymander. Her appeal is before the New York Appellate Division. The initial ruling was made in relation to the New York Voting Rights Act.

This is the first time that a federal political district has been adjudicated under a state voting rights law. While the ruling declared NY-11 as a racial gerrymander, it also included a redraw order that negated the use of the current NY-11 CD in the 2026 election.

Under the New York judicial procedure, a motion to appeal automatically stays the previous ruling until heard by the upper courts. This week, the New York Court of Appeals, the state’s highest court and equivalent to a Supreme Court in most states, released a statement saying they would not hear the case on an expedited basis and further emphasizing that the Appellate Division is the proper authority to rule on the motion.

Therefore, a great deal of confusion remains. If the appellate division fails to act before the New York candidate filing deadline of April 6, would this lead to a postponement of the filing procedure and possibly the June 23 primary? And, if the court delays the filing deadline and potentially the primary, would this apply statewide or just to the 11th Congressional District and the neighboring CDs that a redraw would affect?

Once again, we see another redistricting issue causing widespread confusion. It remains to be seen how the courts rule; until they do at least a portion of the New York congressional map hangs in abeyance.

Utah

Utah Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App

In 2025, a Utah court ruled that the Beehive State’s congressional map was illegal because the legislature failed to adhere to voter passed criteria relating to the drawing of congressional districts.

As a result, the court imposed a new map, one that will create a Salt Lake City-anchored seat, labeled District 1, that a Democrat will win. In fact, at this point, about a month before the congressional filing deadline of March 13, no Republican has even announced their candidacy. Therefore, a gain of one Democratic seat under this new Utah map appears certain.

According to a report from The Down Ballot political blog, Republican activists took to the streets and submitted ballot petition signatures to repeal the new map and thereby restore the previous plan. The activists have submitted well over the number of signatures required to qualify a ballot initiative, but whether the signatures adhere to all provisions of the petition law remains unclear.

Not only does a petition need 140,748 signatures, but a specific number must come from various geographic regions. Therefore, whether the petitions submitted meet the regional requirements remains unknown. The election authorities have until March 7 to issue a decision.

It is most likely that the new map will remain in place at least for the 2026 elections. If so, we will see a new Democrat coming from Salt Lake City, along with Congressman Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) and Rep. Celeste Malloy (R-Cedar City) paired in new District 3. This draw takes UT-3 south and east of Salt Lake City before stretching down the Colorado border all the way to Arizona.

Virginia

Despite a lower court ruling that negated the Virginia attempt to redistrict because the judge ruled that the legislature violated their own rules in order to schedule a redistricting referendum vote, the state Supreme Court is allowing the proposed April 21 referendum to proceed.

Virginia Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App

The decision would allow the public to vote on a proposed map, likely without the voters actually seeing the draw, and although the justices indicated they will continue to hear the case and review the previous ruling, the issue of whether the new map will be used for the 2026 election remains unclear.

It is probable, after the referendum vote likely passes that the new map will be in place for the current 2026 election cycle.

This new plan will radically change the state. Currently, the Democrats have six congressional seats in the Virginia delegation and the Republicans’ five. The new plan projects that Democrats could gain four seats, thus making a 10D – 1R delegation.

Some analysts suggest that a 9D – 2R split is more likely, however. Congresswoman Jen Higgins (R-Virginia Beach) would be placed in a 50-50 District 2, and her likely opponent is the woman she unseated in 2022, former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D). Therefore, the Virginia Beach race might be the tightest in the state. The rest of the GOP members will be likely drawn out of their seats or paired with another Republican.

From a national redirecting standpoint, the Virginia situation is extremely critical because if the Democrats gain four seats here, they very possibly could finish slightly ahead of Republicans in national redistricting if they meet their stated goals in California, Utah, and Virginia.

The national redistricting picture is still cloudy. It is unclear exactly how many new maps will be in place for the 2026 election, and if either party could meet their stated maximum goals regarding the flipping of congressional districts to their side.

Therefore, many unanswered questions remain regarding which maps will be in place for election year 2026 and is largely due to judicial inaction.

The new maps locked into place lie in California, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. The states where legal and political challenges remain are Louisiana, still before the US Supreme Court; Missouri, regarding a qualification of a balance initiative that can negate their new map; and Florida, balanced on whether will or not a new map will pass in a special legislative session. Those are in addition to the three states we covered in this column, New York, Utah, and Virginia.

Malinowski Concedes in NJ-11;
Murkowski Says No in Alaska

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, February 11, 2026

NJ-11

Democratic Socialist Analila Mejia / NJPBS

With former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) conceding defeat in the close NJ-11 special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) in Congress, Democratic Socialist Analila Mejia, a former staff member to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), has won the party primary and will advance into the special general election on April 16.

Turnout for the special was low, with 63,804 Democrats participating as we analyze near-final unofficial tabulations. Mejia defeated Malinowski, 29.1 – 27.7 percent, a margin of 889 votes (18,584 to 17,695).

Mejia will also file for the full term before March 23, and it remains to be seen how many of the 12 defeated special election Democrats will decide to challenge her in that race for the regular term.

In the special general, Mejia will face Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway, who was unopposed in the special Republican primary. Because Mejia is to the left of the district’s historical voting pattern, the Republican leadership will now make the calculated decision about whether to run a significant campaign in an attempt to score an upset victory.

Chances are that Mejia will likely win the general against a minimal effort, since Republicans have been performing poorly in special elections around the country since the 2024 election and will likely choose to save the money to use in other regular election contests.

The next special election will occur in Georgia on March 10 in the Peach State’s vacant 14th District (Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resignation). There, 16 members of the GOP, three Democrats, a Libertarian, and an Independent will compete in a jungle primary for Georgia’s strongest Republican seat.

Should no one receive majority support, almost a certainty from such a crowded field, the top two finishers will advance to an April 7 special general election.

The final special election will occur in California’s 1st District on June 2. State Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) is favored to win the seat outright in the first election. Should others join the candidate field and force a runoff, the secondary election will be held on Aug. 4.

The CD-1 position is vacant due to the death of the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville).

Alaska

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who had not ruled out entering her state’s open Governor’s race, said to reporters earlier in the week that she will not run later this year, and restated her commitment to serve Alaska in the US Senate.

It is likely that Sen. Murkowski would have been favored to win the Governor’s position, as her father did in 2002. Gov. Frank Murkowski was then defeated in the 2006 Republican primary, losing to future Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin and even dropping to a third-place finish.

In 2026, it is probable that Lisa Murkowski would have advanced into the general election via the top four jungle primary system that Alaska employs. Ten Republicans have announced for the position, but the crowded field would have helped her since the conservative vote would have been split among so many candidates.

Without former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) in the race – she chose instead to run for the US Senate – the Republicans will again be favored to win the general election.

The Senator’s decision looks to lay the groundwork for an interesting 2028 campaign, however. Term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) has already said he plans to challenge Sen. Murkowski in the next election.

Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei to Retire;
Malinowski Likely to Lose NJ-11

By Jim Ellis — Monday, February 9, 2026

NV-2

Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City)

Ending what will be a 30-year career in elective and party politics when this Congress concludes, Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) announced on Friday that he will not seek a ninth term in the House later this year.

Rep. Amodei is the 51st House member not to seek re-election in this cycle. Another five open seats are created through new redistricting maps in California and Texas. The number includes the three districts, in California, Georgia, and New Jersey, that are vacant and currently in special election cycles.

Amodei was first elected to federal office in a 2011 special election after then-Rep. Dean Heller (R) was appointed to the Senate. Rep. Amodei has been re-elected seven times and averaged 58.7 percent of the vote in those elections. Prior to winning the US House seat, he served 14 years in the Nevada legislature. Amodei was then elected as Nevada Republican Party chairman but kept the position for only one year because the congressional seat came open.

Nevada’s 2nd District, which covers the domain’s northern sector and is anchored in the cities of Reno and Carson City, is the state’s only Republican congressional seat. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 53.8R – 40.5D partisan lean, meaning that Rep. Amodei consistently ran ahead of the party benchmark. In 2024, President Trump carried the seat with a 55.8 – 41.9 percent spread, a margin that was largely responsible for catapulting him to a close statewide win.

Now that CD-2 is open, it remains to be seen if perennial GOP candidate Danny Tarkanian enters this race. Since 2004, Tarkanian, the son of the late famed college basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, has run for 10 different offices in Nevada including twice for US Senate and Congressional Districts 2, 3 and 4.

Danny Tarkanian is currently a Douglas County Commissioner, which is in the 2nd CD. He has won a fair number of Republican primaries but typically fails to win the general election. In 2022, he challenged Rep. Amodei in the 2nd District Republican primary and lost 55-33 percent in a campaign where he had little chance of prevailing from the outset.

Currently, Tarkanian is an announced candidate in the open Attorney General’s race. He still has time to pivot into the congressional race, however. The candidate filing period doesn’t close until March 13.

A crowded 2nd District Republican candidate field is expected to form. The eventual Republican nominee should be a clear favorite in the general election. Should Tarkanian enter the race and win the primary, Democrats will invest here because of his previous electoral track record. Therefore, a spending advantage and a weaker Republican nominee is enough political fodder for Democrats to believe an upset is possible.

NJ-11

An estimated 5,000-plus votes still remain to be counted in the New Jersey special congressional election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) in the US House.

In the first round of political overtime counting, Democratic Socialist and former Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) staff member Analila Mejia expanded her advantage over former 7th District Rep. Tom Malinowski to 868 votes according to NBC News.

Even bleaker for Malinowski’s chances, almost an equal number of votes remain from the two counties, Essex and Passaic, where Mejia topped Malinowski as compared to Morris County, an entity the former Congressman carried.

Counting will resume today and presumably be completed today or tomorrow. With Mejia as the nominee staking out the far left from a district’s electorate that has habitually trended toward the political center, it will be interesting to see if the Republicans fully back their nominee for the April 16 special general election. Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway won the Republican primary on Thursday in unopposed fashion.

Candidate filing for the regular election closes on March 23 for the June 2 primary. The timing complicates matters since the candidates must file for the regular term before the special election concludes.

NJ-11 Too Close to Call;
Georgia Rep. Loudermilk to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Friday, February 6, 2026

NJ-11 Special Primary

Candidate Analilia Mejia, former Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) staff member, currently leads the NJ-11 Democratic primary race by a slim 486 votes.

In a rare Thursday primary, voters in northern New Jersey’s 11th District went to the polls yesterday to begin the process of choosing a congressional replacement for Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) who was elected statewide in November.

The race is still too close to call. With approximately 6,000 votes remaining to be counted, a close finish is unfolding between political activist and former Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) staff member Analilia Mejia and former Congressman Tom Malinowski. At this writing, Mejia leads Malinowski by 486 votes.

The Democratic race was split among 11 candidates with outside funding coming in for and against several, thus splitting the vote among the top four finishers.

Former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski, who lost his seat in 2022 to current Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), led in the early part of the night until Mejia overtook him. Malinowski was under heavy attack for his stock transactions during his first two-term stint in the House, which may have cost him the primary election. Immigration and opposing the Trump Administration were the focal points of much of the political advertising.

Former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, who benefited from a Super PAC dedicated to supporting Lieutenant Governor candidates, is third, and Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, who had former Gov. Phil Murphy’s support, is taking a disappointing fourth since he was projected to finish higher.

With the ballots spread among so many candidates, a 486-vote lead looks larger within a universe of about 6,000 outstanding votes than it would if only two individuals were involved. It appears more of the remaining uncounted ballots come from Essex County where Mejia was strongest. Therefore, barring a stronger final push from Malinowski in Morris County where he is leading, the most likely outcome is Mejia holding on to claim the primary victory.

The eventual official Democratic winner now advances to the special general election where he or she will face Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway who was unopposed in last night’s Republican primary.

The Garden State’s 11th District lies in northern New Jersey and contains parts of Essex, Morris, and Passaic counties. The major population centers are the cities of Morristown, Broomfield, and Montclair.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean favors the Democrats by a 55.6D – 42.5R count. Kamala Harris carried the district with a 53.3 – 44.6 percent margin over President Trump. Therefore, the eventual Democratic winner is viewed as a heavy favorite for the April 16 special general election.

It remains to be seen if the Republicans will spend serious money in the special general if Mejia, a Sanders-Zohran Mamdani Democratic Socialist candidate, pulls through as now expected.

GA-11

Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-GA), saying that holding a congressional seat is a service and not a career, announced that he will not seek a 7th term in the House later this year.

Prior to being elected to Congress in 2014, Loudermilk served a total of eight years in the Georgia legislature. Over his six congressional elections, Loudermilk averaged a 69.6 percent voter support level.

A total of 55 House seats are open for the next election, including three currently in a special election cycle. Now, 31 of the open seats come from the Republican column, 19 from the Democratic side, and an additional five new seats have been created on new redistricting maps in California and Texas. Loudermilk is the 20th member who is opting to retire from elective politics. The remainder are running for a different office.

The open 11th District will remain in Republican hands, and a crowded GOP field will soon form. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district partisan lean favors Republicans, 62.1R – 35.5D. In 2024, President Trump defeated Kamala Harris here, 61.2 – 37.9 percent.

Georgia’s 11th CD lies northwest of Atlanta and contains some of the city’s outer suburbs. The district’s voting age population is 30.6 percent minority. It contains Barlow, Gordon, and Pickens counties, along with parts of Cherokee and Cobb counties. The district’s largest population centers are the cities of Marietta and Cartersville.

NJ-11: Special Primary Today

CD-11, Northern New Jersey / Dave’s Redistricting App

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, February 5, 2026

House

Voters in northern New Jersey go to the polls today to choose party nominees for the purpose of replacing Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D), who vacated this congressional district after winning her statewide election in November.

The real battle today is in the Democratic primary as 11 candidates are vying for the party nomination. The primary victor tonight will then likely claim the April 16 special general election.

Former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski is viewed as at least a slight favorite to win tonight’s Democratic election, though he has been under attack from his opponents particularly for his stock market success while a member of Congress.

Malinowski was elected to the House in 2018 and won a close re-election over the district’s current Congressman, Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), in 2020. After redistricting, which made the 7th District a touch more Republican, Kean was able to unseat the two-term incumbent in 2022. Rep. Kean was then re-elected in 2024 and will face a tough fight again later this year.

In today’s 11th District special election, Malinowski’s chief opponents are Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, venture capitalist Zach Beecher, Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett, and former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way.

Malinowski is the top fundraiser within the group, bringing in just over $1.1 million according to the Federal Election Commission pre-primary filing covering the period through January 16th. Gill, however, is not far behind with over $800,000 raised. The remaining group has all attracted between $400-$500,000. Since little difference in ideology exists among the candidates, the Democratic primary will likely be an Election Day turnout battle because early voting has not previously been a major factor in New Jersey voting.

For the Republicans, Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway is unopposed for the party nomination and will automatically advance into the mid-April special general election. For his part, Randolph has raised over $260,000, with just over $160,000 in his campaign treasury.

Depending upon tonight’s Democratic result, we will soon see whether the national Republican apparatus will spend significant money to boost Hathaway’s chances in the special general.

The 11th District lies in northern New Jersey and contains parts of Essex, Morris, and Passaic counties. The major population centers are the cities of Morristown, Broomfield, and Montclair.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean favors the Democrats by a 55.6D – 42.5R count. Kamala Harris carried the district with a 53.3 – 44.6 percent margin over President Trump. Of New Jersey’s nine Democratic congressional districts, the 11th ranked as Harris’ sixth-best performance against Trump. Statewide, her victory margin was 52.0 – 46.1 percent, so the 11th District exceeded her statewide showing by 1.3 percentage points.

The NJ-11 special will be the seventh such contest in House races since the current Congress began. Each party has held the seats it was risking, and the NJ-11 contest in April will very likely follow suit.

The next special election will occur in Georgia where the fight will be on the Republican side. The state’s 14th District, from which former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) resigned in early January, is the Republican’s safest Peach State CD. This election will occur on March 10.

Under Georgia election law, all candidates are placed on a jungle primary ballot. If a candidate scores majority support, the individual is elected outright. If no one reaches that threshold, the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation will advance to an April 7 runoff election.

The 14th District’s partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App: 69.2R – 28.9D) is overwhelmingly Republican, so the GOP will hold the seat. With 21 filed candidates, however, going to a runoff election is a virtual certainty.

The contest to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) will be held June 2 under an identical format to the Georgia structure. If a runoff election is necessary in that race, such is scheduled for Aug. 4.

TX-18: Menefee Wins Special

By Jim Ellis — Monday, February 2, 2026

House

Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D)

After a very long special election cycle to replace the late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), who passed away in March last year, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) won the special replacement election on Saturday night. Menefee will be sworn into the House and serve the balance of the current term.

Rep-Elect Menefee defeated former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, 68-32 percent. When the final votes are tallied, it appears that approximately 27,500 individuals will have cast ballots, a very low number.

The two finalists were forced into a runoff because no one received majority support in the Nov. 4 initial special election. In a field of 16 candidates, Menefee and Edwards finished first and second with 29 and 26 percent of the vote, respectively. The runoff obviously produced a more convincing victory margin for Menefee.

The Menefee victory brings the House party division count to 218R – 214D with three seats, two Republican — CA-1 (LaMalfa) and GA-14 (Greene) — and one Democratic — NJ-11 (Sherrill), remaining vacant.

The Congressman-Elect’s tenure in the House may be short lived, however. On March 3, both he and Edwards will compete in the 2026 regular election primary for new District 18 against veteran Congressman Al Green (D-Houston). Because of the 2025 redistricting map, the 18th District, while still fully contained within Harris County and solidly Democratic, is considerably different than the district in which Menefee prevailed on Saturday.

The new 18th sees only 26 percent of the current constituency carrying over from the 18th that was drawn in 2021 and which hosted the special election. Almost 65 percent of the new constituency comes from Rep. Green’s current 9th CD, with just over eight percent transferring from District 29 (Rep. Sylvia Garcia-R) and slivers coming from Districts 7 (Rep. Lizzie Fletcher-D) and 22 (Rep. Troy Nehls-R), according to the statisticians from The Down Ballot political blog.

Therefore, the geography would favor Rep. Green winning renomination and limiting Menefee to serving just 11 months in Congress.

Despite Rep. Green’s geographic edge, the first public poll of a proposed primary election among the three contenders surprisingly favored Menefee. According to the Lake Research Partners poll (Dec. 15-21; 455 likely TX-18 Democratic primary voters; live interview), it was Menefee who led both Green and Edwards, 41-35-13 percent, suggesting that Rep. Green may not be the overwhelming favorite to win the party nomination as most observers initially believed.

Additionally, Ms. Edwards’ presence in the regular primary race, though she is unlikely to prove victorious, may carry enough political strength to deny either Rep. Green or Rep-Elect Menefee an outright majority on March 3rd. Therefore, the top two finishers, likely Green and Menefee, would then advance to a May 26th runoff election.

The March 3 Texas primary will be busy. In addition to the competitive District 18 campaign, 10 Texas US House seats are open, each featuring hot primary elections.

Sen. John Cornyn (R) is in a dogfight for renomination against Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). Additionally, Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking renomination for a fourth term as Governor. Should he be elected and serve most of the ensuing term, Abbott will become the longest-serving Governor in Texas history.

On the Democratic side, we also see a hotly contested US Senate nomination race. There, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) are battling for the right to face the eventual GOP nominee in November.

Polls are inconsistent so far in this campaign. In December, Texas Southern University fielded their survey (Dec. 9-11; 1,600 likely Texas Democratic primary voters) and found Rep. Crockett leading Talarico, 51-43 percent. A month later, Emerson College (Jan. 10-12; 413 likely Texas Democratic primary voters) saw Talarico surging into a 47-38 percent advantage.

HIT Strategies countered with their study taken largely within the same time frame as Emerson College but with a larger polling sample (Jan. 6-15; 1,005 likely Texas Democratic primary voters). This ballot test result posted Crockett to a reverse double-digit lead, 46-33 percent. Finally, Slingshot Strategies released their January survey, also with a large sample (Jan. 14-21; 1,290 likely Texas Democratic primary voters), and found the candidates virtually tied with Crockett posting only a one-point, 38-37 percent edge.

As you can see, we can count on seeing a big Lone Star State primary night on March 3, now only a month away.

Court Tosses Virginia Redistricting; Florida Rep. Vern Buchanan to Retire

Virginia Congressional Districts map / Dave’s Redistricting App

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, January 29, 2025

Virginia

A Virginia Circuit Court Judge ruled that the legislature violated its own rules in hastily voting to place a partisan redistricting referendum on a statewide special election ballot. Therefore, with this ruling, the Virginia congressional redistricting referendum is likely nullified for the 2026 election cycle.

Judge Jack Hurley Jr. agreed with three of the four plaintiffs’ arguments, which is enough to halt the redistricting process. The arguments largely pertained to legislative procedure for special sessions: determining that the legislators violated certain rules they almost unanimously put in place, and not providing timely notice to voters and counties about the upcoming referendum in accordance with Virginia election law.

The Old Dominion redistricting outcome may have been devastating to Republicans if the proposed map outline, which has not been unveiled publicly, ultimately delivered a 10D-1R partisan split as reported. The current Virginia delegation is 6D-5R. Unless something changes on the legal front in relation to appealing this decision, the 2026 election will be conducted on the present 2021 map.

The Virginia candidate filing deadline is April 2 for the June 16 primary election. Therefore, the 2026 political clock at least regarding redistricting is now on the Republicans’ side.

Yet, even under the current map, several seats will be hotly contested in the midterm election cycle. Eleven Democrats have announced their challenge to veteran 1st District Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montrose). Former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D) is mounting a comeback attempt against the woman who unseated her in 2022, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach), in District 2.

Moving to the central part of the state, freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) faces a primary challenge from former Congressman Bob Good in a rematch from the 2024 primary, and general election competition from ex-Congressman Tom Perriello (D), assuming he tops seven other Democrats also vying for the party nomination.

Moving into Northern Virginia, state Sen. Tara Durant (R-Fredericksburg) is poised to run a competitive campaign against freshman Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Dale City) in the politically marginal 7th District.

Regardless of the electoral map, Old Dominion voters can expect a very active 2026 congressional political cycle.

FL-16

Ten-term Florida Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) announced that he will not seek re-election later this year. The Buchanan retirement means that 55 US House seats are open for the next election. The number includes the four seats that are vacant due to death of an incumbent or resignation from the House and will be filled in special elections.

Of the 55, Rep. Buchanan joins 18 other members who are retiring from elective politics. The others, excluding the two deceased members, are running for another office, either Governor or US Senate. Of the 55 open seats, a total of 30 come from the Republican aisle compared to 20 who are Democrats. The remaining five are new open seats created through 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas.

Buchanan’s 16th Congressional District, anchored in Bradenton and Manatee County, is safely Republican. The district also houses 25 percent of Hillsborough County. The other population centers are the cities of Bloomingdale, Sun City Center, and Palmetto.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the Republicans hold the partisan lean advantage at 55.2R – 42.7D. President Trump carried the 16th with a 57.3 – 41.8 percent vote spread in 2024.

It is likely, however, that all of these numbers will change if the legislature follows through and passes redistricting legislation later in the year. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) says he will call the legislature into special session in April for the purpose of redrawing the congressional boundaries.

Rep. Buchanan is the third member of the Florida delegation to not seek re-election. The other two are Reps. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) who is retiring, and Byron Donalds (R-Naples) a gubernatorial candidate.

Expect the new 16th District to be slightly less Republican, as will the surrounding seats on Florida’s Gulf Coast. Doing so will allow more Republican voters to be drawn into Democratic seats, and particularly the district of Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) who is clearly in the most vulnerable political position of any central/southern Florida Democratic member.

Rep. Letlow to Challenge Sen. Cassidy

By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 23, 2026

Senate

Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow

Three-term Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) has joined the group challenging GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy. The Senator confirmed he received a message from Rep. Letlow saying that she will oppose him in this year’s Republican primary and then subsequently publicly declared her intentions. Reports are also surfacing that President Trump has endorsed her candidacy.

The move is a bit of a surprise since a reported understanding existed between Rep. Letlow and state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), chair of Louisiana’s House Ways and Means Committee, that the two would not oppose each other in the Senate challenge. Rep. Emerson announced her candidacy in late October.

It has long been presumed that President Trump would be active in this race since Sen. Cassidy is one of just two Republican Senators on the 2026 ballot to have voted for impeachment over the Jan. 6 controversy at the Capitol. Recently, Trump has been more conciliatory toward the Senator, but it is still clear that he would prefer a different Republican join Sen. John Kennedy (R) in representing Louisiana.

Clearly, the Bayou State race will be one of the premier GOP primary contests. Aside from Rep. Letlow and state Rep. Emerson, 10 others — including State Treasurer and former Congressman and ex-Deputy White House Chief of Staff in the first Trump Administration John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia), Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, and St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden — are all in the nomination race against Sen. Cassidy.

Typically, such a large field would generally help an incumbent because the anti-incumbent votes would be split among so many contenders. In Louisiana, however, the political dynamics have changed. At the end of 2024, the legislature and Governor reinstituted the partisan primary and runoff system to replace the jungle primary structure the state had used since the late 1970s.

Now, such a crowded field likely ensures that the initial vote ends with no candidate receiving majority support, thus forcing the top two finishers to a secondary runoff election.

Originally, the new primary election was scheduled for April 18 but because the US Supreme Court has yet to render a decision on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, the state has postponed the first vote to May 16 and the runoff, if necessary, to June 27.

The candidate filing deadline for major party candidates is Feb. 13, so it remains to be seen just how many of the dozen candidates follow through with the filing process. It is a good bet that the field will narrow once the filing deadline arrives.

Rep. Letlow was elected to the US House in a 2021 special election after her husband, Luke Letlow, won the 2020 election. Unfortunately, he would die of COVID before he was able to take office. After winning the initial special election, Rep. Letlow was easily re-elected in 2022 and 2024, averaging 65.2 percent of the vote.

With Letlow leaving the House, it means there are 54 open seats with three vacancies moving toward special elections. She is the 29th Republican not to seek re-election and 14th retiring House member to enter a 2026 US Senate race.

The battle for her 5th District House seat becomes interesting in that the district could significantly change depending upon SCOTUS’s ruling on the Louisiana redistricting case. Therefore, who might run to succeed Rep. Letlow won’t be completely settled until the high court justices make their decision and district boundaries are set.

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) scheduled the special election to replace the late US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) concurrently with the state’s June 2 regular primary. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two will run off on Aug. 4. At this point, state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R) is the only announced candidate.

Surprisingly, the special election will occur in the current 1st District and not the new 1st that voters adopted in the November special election. Republicans will hold the seat in the special election, but Democrats will likely convert it in November under the new lines that clearly favor their party.

The other two special elections, TX-18 and NJ-11, are scheduled for Jan. 31 and Feb. 5, respectively. The Texas seat is in the final runoff stage while the New Jersey district will host partisan primaries in early February and fill the seat in a special general election on April 16. Democrats are expected to win both of the latter elections.

NJ-11: Special Election Heating Up

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, January 21, 2026

House

New Jersey Congressional Districts map (click on image to see larger interactive map on Dave’s Redistricting Map.)

The New Jersey special election campaign is well underway with the major candidates launching attack ads against each other and, of course, President Trump.

Northern New Jersey voters will choose their congressional nominees on Feb. 5 to begin the process of replacing former Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) in the Garden State’s 11th Congressional District. Sherrill was sworn in as New Jersey’s Governor yesterday.

The real battle is in the Democratic primary, since the eventual party nominee will be a heavy favorite to win the seat in the special general election set for April 16. Eleven Democrats are actively campaigning, and the major contenders appear to be former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, ex-7th District Rep. Tom Malinowski, Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, and Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett.

Gill is attracting attention for his ad that calls out former Rep. Malinowski for making millions of dollars in stock transactions when he was in the House during the Covid pandemic. Prior to his defeat in 2022, the House Ethics Commission was investigating the Malinowski transactions and ruled that he should have reported his gains on mandatory financial disclosure statements.

The Malinowski campaign responds with an ad saying he will fight Trump and, as he says, “… the billionaires screwing people and the insurance companies denying coverage, [and] the big tech companies hurting our kids.” The former Congressman says he “can do this because I refuse to take corporate PAC money.”

The Malinowski campaign appears vulnerable to the stock transaction attacks because the very companies he claims to be opposing are the type of industrial entities that he invested with to personally profit. Therefore, Gill and others attacking Malinowski because they perceive him as a front-runner may have the necessary political ammunition to deny him the party nomination.

Tahesha Way served as New Jersey’s Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of State. Now-former Gov. Phil Murphy (D) appointed her to both positions. She is spending her ad time attacking Trump and claims she is the only candidate to have “beaten Trump.” The reference is to winning an election law case against the Trump Administration.

All of the major candidates will be well funded, and the Democratic primary race will likely attract a great deal of attention as we approach Election Day. The Republicans have an unopposed candidate for their nomination. Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway will face the eventual Democratic nominee.

It remains to be seen if the Republicans will mount a major challenge in this district. The seat has transformed over the years from one that typically elected Republicans to one that is now reliably Democratic.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the NJ-11 partisan lean is 55.6D – 42.5R. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated President Trump there, 53.1 – 44.6 percent. In her two elections under the present district configuration, then-Rep. Sherrill averaged 57.7 percent of the vote in a pair of largely non-competitive elections.

The 11th District’s partisan voting history suggests the seat could at some point again become competitive. Considering, however, the Republicans’ rather poor performances in special elections around the country this year where their candidates are typically underperforming either as compared to the Trump number, the partisan lean factor, or both, it is doubtful that Hathaway can mount a serious run to score an upset victory on April 16.

New Jersey’s 11th CD lies in the northern part of the state and encompasses parts of three counties, Essex, Morris, and Passaic. The district is anchored in Morris County where the 11th covers approximately three-quarters of the local population. Another approximately 300,000 individuals reside in Essex County, with the remaining 80,000-plus more in Passaic. The main population centers are the cities of Morristown, Montclair, and Broomfield, the latter two located just northwest of Newark.

The next special congressional election comes on Jan. 31 in Texas, where Houston voters will choose a successor between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, both Democrats.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) previously announced that the special election to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville) for Aug. 4, the latest date possible under state law. Voters in the special election will choose who will serve out the remaining term of the late Congressman.