Category Archives: House

Another Sanford Comeback?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 7, 2025

Governor

Former South Carolina Governor and ex-Rep. Mark Sanford (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Some political figures seem to never go away. The Down Ballot political blog is reporting that former South Carolina Governor and ex-Rep. Mark Sanford (R) may return for another campaign.

Sanford who concluded his time as Governor in disgrace pertaining to an extramarital affair with an Argentinian woman in 2011, only to return to win a US House special election in 2013 for a seat that he had previously held before losing a renomination primary in 2018, says he may attempt yet another political comeback.

Sanford said Wednesday that he is considering again running for Governor when the post comes open in 2026. Gov. Henry McMaster (R), now the longest-serving chief executive in state history, is ineligible to seek a third full term next year. Other Republicans considering running for Governor are Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, Attorney General Alan Wilson, and Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

The Palmetto State promises to be an interesting political domain in 2026. South Carolina will host its first open gubernatorial race since 2010 when then-state Rep. Nikki Haley succeeded Sanford. In that crowded race for Governor, Haley defeated then-Attorney General McMaster, then-Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, and then-Congressman Gresham Barrett. She out-polled state Sen. Vincent Shaheen (D) in the general election.

In 2014, Gov. Haley was easily re-elected, and McMaster returned to state office in winning the Lieutenant Governor’s post. He would then ascend to the Governorship in 2017 when Haley was appointed US Ambassador to the United Nations in the first Trump Administration. Gov. McMaster would win two terms in his own right, in 2018 and 2022.

Should Sanford enter the 2026 race, a chaotic campaign would likely ensue involving veteran political figures. Lt. Gov. Evette has been in office since 2019 and AG Wilson, son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale/Aiken), has held his post since the beginning of 2011. Rep. Mace was elected to the House in 2020, after serving a term in the state House of Representatives and running for the US Senate in 2014.

Therefore, Sanford again appearing on the political stage in no way suggests that he would have an easy time securing another term as Governor.

After leaving the Governorship under a scandal cloud in 2011 Sanford was able to return to the US House, an institution where he originally served from 1995-2001. He won a 2013 special election to his former 1st Congressional District when then-Rep. Tim Scott (R) was appointed to the US Senate to replace resigned Sen. Jim DeMint (R).

During his return tenure in the House, Sanford became a vocal critic of then-President Donald Trump, which ultimately caused him to lose renomination in 2018. State Rep. Katie Arrington defeated Sanford in that year’s Republican primary, but largely due to a near fatal auto accident that almost cost her life, she would lose the general election to Democrat Joe Cunningham who would then lose his 2020 re-election race to current Congresswoman Mace. In 2022, Cunningham won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination but lost to Gov. McMaster, 58-41 percent.

The state could also feature another interesting statewide campaign. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) is running for a fifth term but could face significant primary opposition. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) continues to confirm that he is considering launching such a challenge.

While Sen. Graham would be favored for renomination, Rep. Norman, with his backing from the South Carolina GOP’s strongly conservative base, would be a formidable opponent.

In 2020, Sen. Graham was in a difficult general election battle with Democrat Jaime Harrison who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Harrison raised more than $130 million in his race against Sen. Graham, and the contest transformed into a virtual national campaign. Though significantly outspent and facing tight polls, the Senator prevailed with a substantial 54-44 percent re-election victory margin.

While the Palmetto State political scene has been quiet since the last Graham election, it appears that the 2026 cycle will produce political fireworks that will again attract substantial national attention.

The Closest House Races (Part I)

US House Balance of Power / Source: US House of Representatives Press Gallery

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025

House

Now that the 2024 election numbers are all finalized and certified, we can begin to project battlegrounds for 2026. Republicans currently hold 218 seats while the Democrats have 215.

Not surprisingly, the House of Representatives’ very close partisan division yielded several tight finishes. In all, 29 House winners claimed their seats with less than 52 percent of the vote. As is the situation within the overall House chamber, the 11 closest winners are divided just about evenly between the two parties.

California Democrat Adam Gray unseated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes in 2024.

In the 2024 election, the 11 most competitive House races were decided by less than two percentage points. Republicans won six of these tight decisions and Democrats five.

The closest race came in northern California, where Democrat Adam Gray unseated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes. In 2022, the two battled to a difference of 564 votes but in the opposite finishing order.

The 2024 result was a bit surprising because President Donald Trump carried California’s 13th District by more than five percentage points. Seeing a Republican incumbent lose, even in such a close margin, with the top of the ticket finishing rather strongly, was unique in this election. Duarte was the only Republican incumbent to lose in a district that President Trump clinched.

Regardless of the reasons for Duarte’s razor-thin defeat, we can expect this Modesto-anchored CD to again be at the forefront of House battlegrounds next year.

The second closest House contest was also found in California, but this race was located more than 300 miles south of CA-13. Orange County Democrat Derek Tran unseated two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by only 653 votes, or two-tenths of one percent. Rep. Steel has already filed a 2026 campaign committee, so seeing a re-match here in 2026 is a strong possibility.

Another contest where the challenger came within less than 1,000 votes of winning occurred in eastern Iowa. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) slipped past former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) with a 799-vote margin. This, however, is not Miller-Meeks’ closest finish. When she first won the seat in 2020, she did so by only a six-vote difference. Since Bohannan also ran in 2022, it is unclear whether she will return for a third attempt. Regardless of who the Democrats field in the next election, this again will be a major targeted race.

The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew the state’s new congressional seat as a politically marginal district that would reflect a changing electorate. Northern Colorado’s 8th District, located to the north and northeast of Denver and awarded to the state in the 2020 census, has so far performed as intended.

In 2022, then-state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) won here with only 48.4 percent of the vote, which translated into a half-point victory margin. In 2024, then-state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) unseated the Congresswoman with a similar percentage, 48.9 percent, and a victory spread of seven-tenths of a point.

Evans’ upset victory proved a major reason for the Republicans being able to hold onto their small majority. Look for another tight contest in this perennial battleground district next year.

The next two results feature Democratic incumbents winning with similarly small margins as shown above. Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) and Jared Golden (D-ME) both won re-election — a 20th time for Kaptur and third for Golden, but with less than a percentage point to spare.

Rep. Kaptur was first elected to her Toledo-anchored seat in 1982. She is the fourth-longest serving current House member and second-most senior in the Democratic Conference, behind only former Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD). Redistricting, however, has placed her in a plus-6 Republican district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, which largely explains her tight finish this year. She defeated then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R) by only seven-tenths of a percentage point in November, or a raw vote spread of 2,382 votes.

Maine’s Congressman Golden (D-Lewiston) continues to hang onto the state’s northern seat by small margins despite President Trump carrying the district with large vote spreads. The Pine Tree State’s Ranked Choice Voting system certainly helps Golden, and it did so again in November, largely enabling him to outlast then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R) by 2,706 votes in the RCV round, which translated into 50.3 percent of the vote.

There is a chance that Rep. Golden will enter the open Governor’s race in 2026, so this lean Republican seat could be open for the next election. Theriault is likely to run again, so expect ME-2 once more to become a top GOP conversion target next year.

Tomorrow, we will look at the five remaining House races where the winner failed to reach the 51 percent plateau.

Michigan Rep. James’ Crushing Lead

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 4, 2025

Governor

Michigan Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills)

Should two-term Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) decide to enter the open Michigan Governor’s race, a new poll finds that he would begin as an overwhelming favorite for the Republican nomination.

For the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and open Senate race in the same election cycle. Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R), who fell just 19,006 votes (three-tenths of one percent) short of defeating Rep. Elissa Slotkin in the 2024 open Senate race, is sending signals that he would like to try again in 2026. If so, he should be a lock to win the party nomination.

Before winning two House races in 2022 and 2024, Rep. James had lost two close Senate races. In 2018, he surprised the entire political world by finishing within 6.5 percentage points of upsetting veteran Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) in what was not viewed as a race with close potential. Two years later, James did even better, closing the gap with now-retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D) to 1.7 percent.

Post-redistricting in 2022, James defeated by half a percentage point former Macomb County prosecutor and ex-judge Carl Marlinga (D) in a Detroit suburban congressional district that favored the Democrats. He increased his victory percentage, again against Marlinga, to 6.1 percentage points in the 2024 re-election campaign.

President Donald Trump, who carried Michigan by just over 80,000 votes in November, looks to have breathed new life into a state Republican Party, which hadn’t seen a statewide victory here since Trump upset Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The new On-Message survey conducted for the Harbor Strategic Public Affairs company (Jan. 17-19; 1,000 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; text to web) yields very good news for Rep. James. He posts a commanding 46-6-4-3-1 percent advantage over state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Porter Township), former Attorney General Mike Cox, 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kevin Rinke, and ex-state House Speaker Tom Leonard, respectively. Of this group, Cox has been the most active potential candidate to date.

The Republican downside of Rep. James running statewide is that his politically marginal 10th Congressional District could become the Democrats’ top national conversion opportunity. Marlinga is making moves to run for a third time, but the Democratic leadership will likely look for a candidate whom they perceive would be stronger since the former judge was a weak fundraiser and lost two consecutive races in a winnable district.

Furthermore, the GOP would likely not have as viable a candidate as Rep. James in the party’s 2026 attempt to hold the toss-up CD.

Conversely, the Governor’s race features interesting Republican possibilities. Toward the end of last year, three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan surprisingly announced that he would enter the open Governor’s race (incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term) and would do so as an Independent candidate. Though the mayoral campaigns are nonpartisan because party affiliation is not listed on the ballot, it was clear that Duggan associated himself with the Democrats. Therefore, announcing his gubernatorial bid as an Independent came as a surprise.

As a three-term citywide incumbent from the state’s largest municipality, Duggan will be a formidable gubernatorial candidate and has a chance to make this 2026 Michigan political contest a legitimate three-way race.

A strong Duggan performance could allow a credible Republican candidate such as James to win the statewide race with only plurality support. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who comes from the left-wing faction of the Democratic Party, has also announced her gubernatorial candidacy and is considered the favorite for the nomination at least at this early juncture.

Duggan, portraying himself as a more centrist candidate, could attract significant Democratic and Democratic-leaning Independent support, which is clearly his strategic objective, thus weakening the party’s prospects because their voters would be split.

Therefore, such a setup becomes much more enticing to a prospective Republican candidate who could unite the GOP for the general election. Rep. James certainly would have such ability.

At this point, the Congressman has not committed himself to running statewide, but polling such as this, and seeing his 77:6 percent positive favorability index from the OnMessage survey sample, is certainly another encouraging point.

The OnMessage data provides even more evidence that Michigan will be one of the top political states in the 2026 election cycle. Expect to see many political stories coming from this domain throughout the next two years.

Mississippi’s Sen. Hyde-Smith Favored for Re-Election; DSSC & Primaries; Fine Likely to Replace Waltz in Fla.; A GA-9 Challenge; Conn., NM Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 3, 2025

Senate

Mississippi Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Mississippi — Ty Pinkins, the 2024 Senate nominee against Sen. Roger Wicker (R) who received 37.2 percent of the vote, says he will challenge Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) in 2026. Sen. Hyde-Smith was appointed to the chamber when Sen. Thad Cochran (R) resigned due to health issues. She then defeated former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Congressman Mike Espy (D) in the 2018 special election, and won a full term, again against Espy, in 2020 with a 54-44 percent vote spread. The Senator has announced for a second full term next year and will be the favorite to win re-election.

DSCC — At a fundraising event late this week, new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) broadly hinted that the organization would not back away from getting involved in primaries. She made specific references to targeted contests in Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina. Democrats expect to mount strong challenges against Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), in addition to campaigning to hold their newly open Michigan seat.

House

Florida State Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne)

FL-6 — Though not residing in Florida’s vacant 6th District, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) topped two GOP opponents with 83 percent support to win the special Republican primary to replace resigned Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Waltz left the House to become President Trump’s National Security Advisor.

Sen. Fine, like Jimmy Patronis in the open 1st District, had the support of President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 6th District as R+28, so Sen. Fine becomes a definitive favorite to claim the seat in the April 1 special general election.

CO-8 — Freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Westminster) has already drawn a Democratic opponent in what will be another very competitive congressional race in northern Colorado’s 8th District. The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew this CD to be contested in every election, and so far it has performed as designed. Democrat Yadira Caraveo represented the seat in its initial term, only to fall to Evans in the 2024 election.

State Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) announced this week that he will enter the 2026 congressional race thus attempting to limit Rep. Evans to a one-term career. This contest will be a top target 2026 campaign.

GA-9 — Three-term US Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Athens) has drawn a significant primary challenger. Gainesville Mayor Sam Couvillion announced that he will challenge Rep. Clyde in the 2026 Republican primary.

Clyde, a Freedom Caucus member and one of the more conservative Representatives, has fared well in nomination contests. In his first run back in 2020, Clyde won a GOP runoff with 56 percent of the vote. He defeated four Republicans in 2022 with just over 74 percent and was unopposed for renomination in 2024. The Congressman will remain a heavy favorite for renomination in 2026.

Governor

Connecticut — New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart (R) has filed a 2026 gubernatorial campaign committee. She promises to make a formal announcement by the end of this month, but it is a virtual certainty that she will run. Gov. Ned Lamont (D), who is eligible to run for a third term, says he will make a decision about 2026 after the legislative session ends in June.

New Mexico — Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), just re-elected in November, says he will not run for Governor in 2026. The Heinrich decision makes former Interior Secretary and ex-Rep. Deb Haaland the undisputed front-runner for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Haaland is making moves toward entering the race but has not yet officially announced her candidacy.

Virginia: The co/efficient data group released their latest Virginia poll (Jan. 18-20; 867 likely 2025 Virginia general election voters; live interview & text) and again finds a toss-up open 2025 gubernatorial race between Democratic former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Both appear to be presumptive nominees of their party at this early point in the election cycle. According to the co/efficient data, Spanberger and Earle-Sears would each command 40 percent support.

Michigan Sen. Gary Peters to Retire; Florida Special Election Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2025

Michigan

Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D)

Saying, “I always thought there would be a time that I would step aside and pass the reins for the next generation,” Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) announced yesterday that he will not seek re-election to a fourth term next year. This is the first surprise political decision of the new political cycle.

The move is reminiscent of the 2024 election cycle, when another Michigan Senator, Debbie Stabenow (D), became the first incumbent to announce that she would retire. Sen. Peters, 66, also said that he “…never saw service in Congress as something you do your whole life.” The Senator’s comments suggest that he would venture into another type of livelihood potentially in the private sector.

The Peters retirement makes Michigan the political hotbed of the early 2026 election cycle. Not only will we see a competitive open Senate race here, as was the case in 2024, but the open Governor’s contest could feature a wild three-way political battle largely because Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan announced his candidacy as an Independent.

The Duggan entry enhances Republican prospects to win the Governor’s race because their nominee could take advantage of a split in the Democratic coalition, thus allowing the GOP candidate to win with plurality support. Until the coming election, Duggan had been a Democrat and is, of course, known as such in the state’s largest city where he has won three at-large elections.

Hosting two major competitive statewide races will certainly change the Michigan political landscape since many officeholders from both parties could enter each of these campaigns. In addition to Duggan entering the Governor’s race, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) last week declared for the Democratic Party nomination.

Turning to the Republicans, former state Attorney General Mike Cox has been making serious moves to enter the Governor’s race but has yet to formally announce his intentions.

Now, we can expect other statewide officials and US House members to be assessing their chances for what will be two major statewide campaigns with national implications. Watch for Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilcrest to make a move for one of the two slots, probably Governor. Attorney General Dana Nessel (D) is another who could be well positioned to make a move toward running for Governor or now Senate.

Within the Democratic congressional delegation, look for Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) and possibly Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) to test the statewide political waters. Early reports suggest that former Transportation Secretary and 2020 presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg is also beginning to study his potential of competing in an open Michigan Senate contest.

On the Republican side, former Congressman Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate election by just three-tenths of one percentage point must be considered at the top of the 2026 Senate prospect lists. Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who lost to Sen. Peters in 2020 with a small 49.9 – 48.2 percent vote margin and is already being discussed as a possible gubernatorial candidate, is likely to again consider running statewide. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) is another GOP House member who will probably analyze his prospects for one of the statewide races.

Sen. Peters began his elected office career by winning a seat on the Rochester Hills City Council in 1991. He was then elected to the state Senate and US House before winning the US Senate seat in 2014, succeeding 36-year veteran Sen. Carl Levin (D) who chose not to seek a seventh term.

Florida Special Election Results

As expected, Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis, bearing endorsements from President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), easily won the 1st District special Republican primary, which is the first step toward replacing resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R). Patronis captured 66 percent of the vote against nine Republican opponents. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to defeat the Democratic nominee, Gay Valimont.

In the Atlantic coastal 6th CD, also as expected, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) was an overwhelming winner in this special Republican primary election. Like Patronis, Sen. Fine had the public support of President Trump and Sen. Scott, among many other GOP leaders. He topped the field of two opponents with an 83 percent vote total. Sen. Fine is now a heavy favorite to win the special general election.

Both the 1st and 6th District special general elections are scheduled for April 1.

Florida’s Special Primaries Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025

Special Primaries

Former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz | Former Florida Rep. Mike Waltz

Electorates in two vacant Florida US House districts will choose nominees today, taking the first step in filling congressional positions related to President Donald Trump selecting certain House members to join his Administration.

Former Rep. Matt Gaetz immediately resigned from his 1st District House seat when President Trump announced his nomination for the US Attorney General’s position. Though it quickly became clear that the US Senate would not confirm him to the position, Gaetz still decided to remain on the outside despite winning re-election to the House in November.

Trump also chose 6th District US Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) as his National Security Advisor. Since this position does not require Senate confirmation, Waltz was able to resign from the House on Jan. 20 and immediately begin serving in his new position.

Gov. Ron DeSantis, upon the President announcing his appointments, moved quickly to schedule the replacement special elections and combine them on one political calendar. Therefore, despite Waltz being out of Congress for only eight days, the special primaries to replace him and Gaetz are scheduled for today.

The 1st District lies in the western section of Florida’s northern Panhandle and is anchored in the Gulf of America cities of Pensacola, Navarre, Ft. Walton Beach, and many other small beach communities. The 1st is Florida’s safest Republican seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+38. The Down Ballot political blog ranks FL-1 as the 39th safest district in the House Republican Conference. Therefore, the winner of today’s special Republican primary will easily hold the seat in the April 1 special general election.

Vying for the party nomination are 10 candidates, but one stands alone as the clear favorite. State Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, though a resident of Panama City in the state’s 2nd District, is the definitive leader heading into today’s vote. He enjoys the endorsements of President Trump, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), and Gov. DeSantis. He is expected to easily win the primary tonight and join the Congress in April. His strongest initial competitors dropped out of the race once Patronis secured his top endorsements.

Assuming victory tonight, Patronis will then face gun control activist Gay Valimont in the special general election. Valimont is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

The situation in the state’s 6th District is just as clear. There, state Sen. Randy Fine is the prohibitive favorite to win today’s special Republican primary. Like Patronis, Sen. Fine enjoys the endorsements of President Trump, Sen. Scott, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and many more elected area officials. He faces only two minor Republican opponents in today’s election.

The 6th District lies on the Sunshine State’s Atlantic coast and is anchored in the cities of Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, and Palm Coast on the eastern shore, along with the inland communities of Belleview and De Land.

FL-6 is slightly less Republican than CD-1 but still rates a R+28 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Down Ballot statisticians rank FL-6 as the 105th safest Republican House seat.

Three Democrats are vying for the party nomination, but tonight’s winner will be little more than a sacrificial lamb in the April 1 special general election.

Today represents the first step in filling the two Florida US House vacancies. In April, we can expect Patronis and Fine to be joining the body, thus giving Speaker Johnson slightly more partisan leeway for some critical votes later in the congressional session.

Reapportionment Projection Shows Significant State Gains & Losses

California Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025

Reapportionment

Back in October, the American Redistricting Project released a national reapportionment estimate for the upcoming 2030 census, predicting which states would gain and lose congressional seats based upon unfolding population patterns. This week, the Brennan Center released their own reapportionment data, revealing some differentiation with the ARP conclusions.

Obviously, with half a decade to go before a new Census is conducted, no projection can be considered completely accurate because the population growth patterns will undoubtedly change at least to a degree over the next five years. Still, both the similarities and differences between the two projections are interesting to observe.

The similarities are much greater in number. Both organizations see California losing a whopping four seats, dropping the delegation size from 52 seats to 48. If these projections prove true, it will be only the second time in history that the Golden State will have lost representation. The first downgrade occurred in the 2020 census with a reduction of one district.

On the plus side, both data projections suggest that Texas will gain another four seats on top of the two they added in 2020 for a grand total of 42.

The other states that both organizations agree will gain one new seat are Arizona, Idaho, North Carolina, and Utah. Each agrees that the following states will lose one seat: Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

The Oregon situation is interesting, because it suggests the Beaver State is on a path to relinquish the new seat they gained in the 2020 census. It is virtually unheard of to see a small population state gain in one census cycle but lose in the next.

Under the national reapportionment formula, the small states must show extreme population gains in order to add new seats, but also must experience extreme inhabitant lag in order to lose any of their congressional districts when compared to what happens in the larger states. Thus, Oregon, with a base of five districts and showing such diametrically opposite growth patterns in consecutive census cycles is a situation that has not before occurred in the modern era.

There are several differences between the projections. Both organizations find Florida in position to be another big gainer, however, the ARP sees the Sunshine State adding three new districts, while the Brennan Center believes the number will be four. If the latter calculation holds, Florida will increase its US House delegation size from 28 seats to 32.

While ARP projects Georgia and Tennessee to gain one seat apiece, the Brennan Center sees both holding their current House delegation quantity. In terms of seat losses, ARP sees New York losing three seats, while the Brennan Center projects a net loss of two. ARP also finds Illinois losing two seats, but BC calculates the Land of Lincoln loss count at only one.

The other difference is the Brennan Center projecting a one-seat loss for Wisconsin while ARP believes the Badger State count will remain at the current eight district level.

The Brennan organization also tracked the population shifts by region beginning in the decade of the 1960s to show how much the country’s migration patterns have changed over the course of what would be 70 years if their 2030 figures prove correct.

In the 60s, three geographic regions dominated the nation’s share of inhabitants. The Midwest and Plains states housed 125 congressional districts, the South 124, and the Northeast 117. Following was the West with 52, while the Rocky Mountain State region held only 17.

The 2030 projection shows big gains for the mountains and South. The Rocky Mountain region is expected to more than double its number of congressional districts from their level in the 1960s, growing from 17 to 36 seats. The South would expand by a third to 164 congressional districts, thus becoming the most populous region in the country. The West would increase to 66 from the 52 districts it held in the 60s.

The Midwest would have the largest reduction, going from 125 seats to 88, while the Northeast would see a similar decline, arriving at 81 seats from the 117 CDs they held in the 1960s.

While the 2030 projections will certainly change before the next Census is conducted, the regional patterns will probably be close to the mark. Therefore, we will see the South and West continue to grow with the colder climates in the Midwest and Northeast again attracting fewer inhabitants.