Category Archives: House

Gubernatorial Campaigns Projected to Affect US House Balance of Power

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 6, 2024

Governor

Term-limited Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R)

As the new Congress begins, election observers are already contemplating how the many open 2026 Governors’ campaigns might affect the razor-thin US House majority.

Looking toward next year’s election, a total of 36 states will host gubernatorial campaigns. In the 19 places where term limits are in effect, we will see open statewide contests. In many of these developing races, US House members are potential candidates. Therefore, protecting the small GOP majority with a large number of open seats becomes an even more difficult task.

Representatives who could run for an open Governor’s position are already rumored or announced in 10 states: Alabama, Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) opting to seek re-election instead of running for Governor opens the field to replace term-limited Gov. Kay Ivey (R).

It is unlikely that Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Weaver/Gadsen) will risk his role as chairman of the House Armed Services Committee to run for Governor, but he is considered a possible candidate. Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Hoover), chairman of the House Policy Committee, is also a potential gubernatorial contender.

Already, polling is suggesting that Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) is the leading potential candidate to succeed term-limited Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D). Yet we can expect a lively Democratic primary possibly between Reps. Neguse and Jason Crow (D-Aurora). It is doubtful that any Centennial State Republican House member, largely comprised of freshmen, will jump into the open Governor’s campaign.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), being ineligible to seek a third term, leaves a wide-open succession field. The person DeSantis appoints as the new Senator when incumbent Marco Rubio is confirmed as the US Secretary of State may influence who runs for Governor. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the congressional member most often mentioned as having an interest in running for the office. The eventual GOP nominee will have the inside track of winning the next Sunshine State gubernatorial general election.

In Maine, all eyes are on whether Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) will attempt to replace term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D). So far, Golden has not provided any hints about his future political plans.

The odd-year New Jersey open Governor race has already attracted two Democratic House members into the 2025 campaign, Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), who leads in early polling, and Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) who enjoys a big edge in fundraising.

At the end of this term, Henry McMaster (R) will be the longest-serving Governor in South Carolina history but cannot run again to succeed himself. South Carolina has a two-term limit, but McMaster ascended to the office from his post as Lieutenant Governor when then-Gov. Nikki Haley resigned to become US Ambassador to the United Nations and did so during a time frame that still allowed him to run for two full terms.

A crowded open Republican primary field will form and could feature two US House members. Both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) have indicated they are considering gubernatorial bids. Mace has also not quelled speculation that she could challenge Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) as he seeks renomination for a fifth term.

In Tennessee, several Republican House members are considering a bid for Governor but could be effectively blocked should just re-elected Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) continue to make moves suggesting that she will run.

Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia), John Rose (R-Cookeville), and Mark Green (R-Clarksville) have all either indicated they are considering running for Governor or speculation has surrounded them regarding launching such a campaign. Incumbent Republican Bill Lee is ineligible to run for a third term.

While a midterm election cycle typically attracts lower voter interest, 2026 will feature a large number of competitive statewide campaigns. Expect the many open Governors’ races to also ignite a round of political musical chairs in several US House delegations.

NC Gov. Cooper “Not Done”; Rep. Evans to Return in Jan.; After the CR Vote; Oakland’s Mayoral Special Election

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 3, 2025

Governor

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D)

North Carolina: Gov. Cooper “Not Done” — In his farewell address as North Carolina’s Governor, outgoing incumbent Roy Cooper (D) confirmed speculation that he has designs on running for another office. Cooper, as part of his departure speech, said he is “not done” with public service and left a broad hint that his name will again be on a ballot.

The unanswered question is whether Gov. Cooper will challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in 2026 or begin to prepare a long range campaign for President in 2028. It is apparent that Cooper will be a part of at least one of those political endeavors.

House

PA-3: Rep. Evans Looking to Return in January — Pennsylvania Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia), who has not been voting in the House since May because he suffered a stroke, announced that he has recovered to the point of returning to work in January. Despite not being able to fully serve for months, Rep. Evans was unopposed for re-election to a 5th term in November. Prior to being elected to Congress, Evans served in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives for 35 years.

CR Vote: Quarter of GOP No Votes Not Returning — A significant number of the Republican House members who opposed the final continuing resolution package are not returning to the body in January.

Two members, Reps. Jim Banks (R-IN) and John Curtis (R-UT), were elected to the Senate in November. Three, Reps. Bob Good (R-VA), Dan Bishop (R-NC), and Alex Mooney (R-WV), lost races for re-election (Good), state Attorney General (Bishop), and US Senate (Mooney). Since the election, Bishop has been nominated to serve as President-Elect Trump’s Director of the Office of Management & Budget.

Three more individuals, Reps. Debbie Lesko (R-AZ), Greg Lopez (R-CO), and Matt Rosendale (R-MT), are retiring from the House. Lesko was elected to the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors in November. Lopez won a special election when then-Rep. Ken Buck (R) resigned but did not run for a full term.

Cities

Oakland, CA: Special Election Mayoral Candidate Speculation — Mayor Sheng Thao (D) was recalled by the voters on Nov. 5, and the Oakland City Council has set April 15 for the replacement election. Already, some prominent names are surfacing as potential candidates.

The first is outgoing Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate earlier in the year and as a result risked her US House seat. Another is former NFL and University of California at Berkeley football star Marshawn Lynch, who has also been mentioned as a potential contender. Neither individual has yet confirmed interest in running, but both would be formidable candidates.

The current interim Mayor, City Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas (D), will not be a candidate in the special election. She was elected to the Alameda County Board of Supervisors on Nov. 5 and will be assuming her new position at the beginning of the year.

Lara Trump Out in Florida;
Vance Senate Replacement Update

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025

Senate

Lara Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Former Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump announced before Christmas that she is removing herself from consideration to replace Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio as Senator in Florida, and there are new signals emerging about who will succeed Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance via similar appointment.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will appoint a new Florida Senator upon Rubio being confirmed as Secretary of State. Therefore, expect an individual who is close to DeSantis to be chosen. Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, Attorney General Ashley Moody, and ex-state House Speaker Jose Olivo are possible Rubio successors. DeSantis says he will announce his choice sometime in January.

Sen. Rubio will likely be one of the first Trump nominees confirmed since his position is one of the more important and the approval process before his 99 colleagues is expected to progress smoothly. There is little suggestion that he will lose any Republican votes and is likely to attract some crossover Democratic support.

Possibly, a reason for Ms. Trump’s withdrawal from consideration is an understanding that Gov. DeSantis is headed in another direction. He certainly will pick someone who has a campaign background and the ability to raise funds. Ms. Trump fit the bill concerning both of those qualifications but is not a Florida political insider. Ms. Trump hails from North Carolina and the Eric Trump family has lived in Florida for only a short time.

Whoever Gov. DeSantis selects will have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and then again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term. Therefore, the new Senator will be in heavy fundraising mode for a full four-year period since Florida, the state with the third largest population, is a very expensive place in which to campaign.

Ohio — The Ohio appointment is interesting in that the top prospects are all saying they instead want to run in the state’s open Governor’s contest. Originally, it appeared that both Lt. Gov. Jon Husted and Attorney General Dave Yost were thought to be the top appointment contenders. Both had already announced they were running for Governor and each reiterated he wanted to stay in the race.

Another potential appointment, Secretary of State Frank LaRose who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2024, is also expressing interest in the Governor’s race. LaRose is thought of a long-shot appointment since he is well to the right of Gov. Mike DeWine, therefore it’s unlikely that the latter man would look in the Secretary’s direction.

Recent indications, however, suggest that Lt. Gov. Husted could still become Gov. DeWine’s choice for the Senate seat if Husted would change his intention and accept the position. Appointing Husted would make sense because it would save the Republicans from enduring a difficult and potentially divisive gubernatorial primary principally between he and Yost.

As in Florida, the new Ohio Senator will have to run in 2026 to fill the balance of the term, and then again in 2028 when the seat comes in-cycle for its six-year term. Therefore, it would behoove the Republicans to have a candidate who is experienced in running statewide campaigns and has the type of fundraising base that can sustain him or her through what will be a very expensive four-year political period, particularly if outgoing Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) decides to run in either 2026, 2028, or both.

In Brown’s unsuccessful re-election bid this year, he became the second most prolific fundraiser of all Senate candidates, attracting over $103 million in cycle financial receipts. Therefore, GOP fundraising would become an even greater priority if Brown becomes the new Senator’s opponent.

One group essentially disqualified from receiving a Senate appointment in either Florida and Ohio are Republican US House members. Already down a potential three seats until special elections are held due to Trump Administration nominations, the scant Republican majority cannot afford further leakage. Therefore, neither Governor will choose a Representative for the Senate appointment.

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays (Plus, Gaetz’s Rumored Return)


Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays, everyone. Ellis Insight will be taking a break over the holidays. Today will be our last post this year. We’ll return Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025 with continuing updates.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 24, 2024

House

Resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fort Walton Beach)

In the fervor of the continuing resolution battle, a rumored side story may soon be picking up steam. Some are speculating that resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz may now take his seat when the new Congress commences on Jan. 3 at least for a short period.

Considering that more chatter surrounds Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) as becoming politically weaker through the CR fight seemingly makes a Gaetz return potentially more probable.

The resigned Congressman’s story never seems to end. To review, when Gaetz left the House in mid-November, he could do so only for the current term. He said in his resignation letter, however, that it is his “intent” to resign for the coming term.

In the Nov. 5 election, Gaetz was re-elected with 66 percent of the vote, so should he change his mind and decide to take the oath of office it would be difficult to craft an argument to deny him since his election percentage was overwhelming.

The speculation regarding him taking the oath of office on Jan. 3 appears to be twofold. First, he may now want to participate in the Speaker’s vote if he believes Johnson is beatable. His second reason could possibly be to release congressional “MeToo” names in retaliation for the House Ethics Committee members reversing course and publicizing their findings in his case.

Should Gaetz actually return, it is believed that he would only serve for a matter of days before resigning again to assume his recently agreed upon news anchor duties with the OAN Network. Yet, can any current political move be considered “a sure thing?”

How this situation concludes will likely depend upon the way in which the continuing resolution battle is resolved. If the government is shut down and remains so through the Jan. 3 congressional commencement, the odds may grow that Gaetz would take his seat to participate in what would be a historic, yet wholly chaotic, Speaker election on the House floor.

Remembering Kevin McCarthy’s Speaker election of two years ago, which consumed 15 rounds of roll calls, such a scenario as described above would likely make the coming Speaker vote even more noteworthy.

At this point, the possibility of Gaetz taking office for a short number of days is unlikely to affect the special election calendar that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) scheduled to fill his vacant 1st District seat for the new Congress. The special Republican primary is scheduled for Jan. 28 with the associated special general election on April 1.

Should Gaetz rescind his resignation intent and indicate he will serve the balance of the new term, he would likely have the right to do so, and the special election would be canceled.

Currently, nine Republicans, one Democrat, one Independent, and several qualified write-in candidates are competing for the seat in the special election. In what has continually proven to be Florida’s safest Republican seat (the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38) the Gaetz succession battle will likely be determined in the late January special Republican primary.

Though nine candidates are on the ballot, it is apparent the race is narrowing to two contenders: Florida CFO Jimmy Petronis and state Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). Most of the Republican establishment, including President-Elect Donald Trump and Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), have endorsed Petronis. Several strong contenders dropped out of the race once Petronis received those endorsements, and likewise pledged their support to the current statewide official.

Once again, we see another unique political situation, and this one, too, merits watching all the way through conclusion.

House Re-Match Prospects

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 20, 2024

House

Pennsylvania Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown)

Eleven members of the House of Representatives lost their seats on Nov. 5, and several have already said they are open to seeking a re-match in 2026. With such a small majority margin in the new Congress, House control will again be up for grabs in 2026.

The latest to make such a comment is Pennsylvania Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown), who lost to state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Emmaus) by a narrow 50.5 – 49.5 percent majority, or a margin of 4,062 votes from 403,314 ballots cast. Wild said that she is not ruling out returning for a re-match.

Of the 11 defeated members, seven are Republicans as compared to four Democrats. One of the Republicans, Oregon Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, has been nominated as President-Elect Donald Trump’s Secretary of Labor, so she will certainly not be returning for another House race.

California Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) lost the closest House race in the country, falling by just 187 votes. While Duarte said he would consider running for Congress again, he is also being floated as the Director of the Bureau of Reclamation in the Trump Administration.

Those who have made no comment about future plans include Reps. Mike Garcia (R-CA), Yadira Caraveo (D-CO), Brandon Williams (R-NY), and Matt Cartwright (D-PA).

Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) has not made any definitive comments about her future, but she certainly could return to seek a rematch with the man who unseated her, freshman Rep. Nick Begich, III (R).

Looking at a different option, Peltola would likely easily win the Democratic nomination for what will be an open Governor’s position. Incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, so expect a major open-seat battle in this race. Since Alaska voters kept their top four Ranked Choice Voting system, the Democrats have a better chance of scoring an upset win.

While New York Rep. Marc Molinaro (R) has not yet said he would seek a re-match, there is speculation that he could be under consideration to become the Republican nominee in the special election for Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) seat just to the north of his own district.

In New York, special elections do not have primaries. When Ms. Stefanik is confirmed as the US Ambassador to the United Nations the 15 Republican County Chairs will choose the replacement nominee. Therefore, the eventual winner could claim the position with as little as seven votes. The Republican nominee will be favored in the special election, but the New York special election certainly has the potential of becoming competitive.

Two-term California Rep. Michelle Steel (R) is further along the re-match path than any of the others. She has already filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission and is looking to reverse her 653-vote loss to attorney Derek Tran (D). The filing of a campaign committee does not necessarily mean a candidacy will follow, but Steel’s comments suggest that she is making an early commitment to running again.

Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) was the biggest surprise winner of the 2022 election cycle and represented the most Democratic seat in the country to elect a Republican Congressman. He defeated then-Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen, who then returned this year to capture the seat with a two percentage point victory. D’Esposito is another who professes to be open to potentially seeking a re-match.

Regardless of whether we see multiple re-matches from the 2024 campaign, all of the aforementioned politically marginal districts will likely be in play two years from now.

It is likely we will see more seats becoming competitive in two years, but the re-match campaigns will certainly head the A-target lists for both parties.

Texas Senate Seat Questions; Florida House Special Elections Set; Arkansas Redistricting Commission Filed

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 9, 2024

Senate

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French

Texas: Potential Challenger Issues Statement — There have been political rumors in Texas for some time that Attorney General Ken Paxton is planning to challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the 2026 Republican primary, and now another individual is coming forward to confirm he is considering entering the next US Senate campaign.

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French, a MAGA activist, released a statement indicating he is considering becoming a Senate candidate. While he was running for Majority Leader, Sen. Cornyn stated he would run for a fifth term. It remains to be seen, however, if he will follow through with that statement now that he is not in the leadership.

House

FL-1: Special Election Field Set — Candidate filing has closed for the two Florida special congressional elections with primaries scheduled for Jan. 28. President-Elect Donald Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R) have endorsed Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Petronis. Upon seeing the move from the national leaders, two potentially strong contenders, state Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and wealthy businessman Keith Gross, exited the race and endorsed Petronis. Even so, 10 others remain.

Though the field remains large, the top combatants are Petronis and state Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The size of the GOP field suggests that we will see a plurality nominee advance into the April 1 special general election. One Democrat, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, and an Independent candidate also filed.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which makes the northwestern panhandle seat Florida’s safest Republican domain. Therefore, the winner of the Jan. 28 GOP primary will win the seat outright on April 1.

FL-6: Sen. Randy Fine (R) in Driver’s Seat for Special Election — While 11 Republican candidates filed in the 1st District special election, we see only one other Republican do so in the Atlantic coastal 6th District after President-Elect Trump and Sen. Scott publicly endorsed state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne). The individual also is a MAGA activist — Aaron Baker. Sen. Fine appears to be a lock for the GOP nomination.

Three Democrats, a Libertarian Party nominee, and an Independent have filed. It appears Sen. Fine has won this seat once candidate filing closed. The Independent candidate is Randall Terry, a well-known pro-life activist who was the 2024 American Constitution Party presidential nominee and lives in Tennessee.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+28, so neither vacant Florida seat appears vulnerable to a Democratic conversion.

Redistricting

Arkansas: Redistricting Commission Filed — According to the Redistricting Network organization, state Sen. Bryan King (R-Green Forrest) has filed a bill to create a redistricting commission to draw future district boundaries at all levels of government. This measure would create a nine member commission where the governor, state attorney general, and the secretary of state would appoint those serving.

The move is a strange one considering that Republicans have trifecta control of the governor’s mansion, the state Senate and state House of Representatives. From the current map, the Republicans hold a 4-0 advantage in the congressional delegation, a 29-6 division in the state Senate, and 82-18 in the state House. The chances for passage in this legislative session appear slim at the outset.

Primary Challenge to Louisiana Sen. Cassidy; New Jersey Sen. Helmy to Resign; Gray Wins CA-13; Detroit Mayor Duggan Announces for Gov.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 6, 2024

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)

Louisiana: Primary Challenge to Sen. Cassidy Continues to Brew — Earlier, we noted that outgoing Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta is considering launching a 2026 partisan primary challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), and now state treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R) announced he will challenge the senator. Outgoing Congressman Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge), who was the Republican casualty under the state’s new congressional redistricting map, is also mentioned as a possible candidate. Another who is confirming preliminary Senate race interest is Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) who just won a fifth US House term with 71 percent of the vote.

The Louisiana political situation will be different in 2026 because the state is moving away from the top-two jungle primary system for some offices and returning to the partisan primary procedure that most states use. Under the new legislation, races for the US Senate, US House, state school board, Public Service Commission, and state Supreme Court Justices will go to a partisan primary.

The Louisiana Secretary of State has already released a schedule for the new election calendar. The partisan primaries will be held on April 18, 2026. If no candidate receives majority support, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on May 30, 2026.

New Jersey: Sen. Helmy to Resign — New Jersey caretaker Sen. George Helmy (D), who Gov. Phil Murphy (D) appointed to replace resigned Sen. Bob Menendez (D) on an interim basis, announced that he will resign on Sunday. Sen. Helmy is doing so to allow Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who won the general election on Nov. 5, to begin his Senate career early as Gov. Murphy will appoint him to replace Helmy. There are likely to be important lame-duck session votes in the Senate later this month for which Sen-Elect Kim will now participate.

House

CA-13: Gray Wins — Weeks after the election, we finally have all 435 congressional races decided. In northern California’s 13th District, we now see former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) defeating freshman Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) by just 187 votes. There will be no recount. Rep. Duarte will not contest the outcome, and so the closest race in the country draws to a close. Duarte says he hopes to continue serving the public in other ways and is open to again running for Congress. Therefore, we could see a third race between these two in 2026.

The Gray win means the House will divide at 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats, an overall one-seat gain for Democrats from the current Congress. The margin will drop to 217-215 with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) having already resigned from the House and Reps. Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY) soon to be headed into Trump Administration positions. It is likely the House will remain in the 217-215 mode until early April since the special elections for the two Florida seats will occur on April 1.

Governor

Michigan: Mayor Duggan Announces for Governor — Michigan will host one of 15 open governor’s races next year because the incumbents are term-limited, so candidates are already beginning to make moves. Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who switched from the Democratic Party to Independent status earlier this year, is serving his third term having been originally elected at the end of 2013. As of this week, so far the mayor has become the first individual to announce that he will run as an Independent for governor next year.

Duggan is viewed as an effective mayor for a city that had major problems when he assumed office. Coming from the state’s largest municipality, his Independent candidacy could become serious. This means we could see a very interesting three-way Michigan gubernatorial campaign in 2026. Certainly, both the Democrats and Republicans will field their own candidates, so we will likely see a winner crowned with only a plurality victory margin.