Category Archives: House

Missouri’s Cori Bush Out in Primary; Other Primary Results From Kansas, Washington, Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Primary Results

Missouri Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis)

Missouri: Rep. Bush Unseated — In an expensive race where the incumbent was heavily outspent, former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell denied two-term Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) renomination by just over 6,800 votes. Rep. Bush is the third incumbent to lose to an intra-party challenger, joining Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Bob Good (R-VA) as defeated incumbents. Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL) also lost his bid for renomination, but that race was an incumbent pairing due to a new redistricting map.

In the open 3rd District, in a race that winnowed down to two former state senators vying to replace retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth), Bob Onder, armed with an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, saw a late vote surge propel him over Kurt Schaefer for a Republican nomination win, which is tantamount to winning the November election.

In the open governor’s race, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe defeated state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring) and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft in a close three-way result. Kehoe advances into the general election as the favorite against state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (D-Springfield). Gov. Mike Parson (R), who endorsed Lt. Gov. Kehoe, was ineligible to seek a third term.

Kansas: Schmidt Clinches GOP Primary — In Kansas’ open 2nd District, former Attorney General and ex-Republican gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt easily won the open Republican nomination. Schmidt was topping the 53 percent mark in a field of five candidates. The former statewide official is now a clear favorite to win the general election and keep the seat in the Republican column.

For the Democrats, former Rep. Nancy Boyda won a close primary with just over 51 percent of the vote in her political comeback attempt. Advancing to the general election, Boyda will be a big underdog to Schmidt in a 2nd District that is much different than the seat she represented for one term 16 years ago. Two-term Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) chose not to seek re-election.

Washington: Rep. Newhouse Trails in Jungle Primary — The Washington jungle primary featured a full slate of races. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) captured first place in the Senate race, with 58 percent at this writing. She will face Republican physician Raul Garcia in the general election. Sen. Cantwell is now a prohibitive favorite to capture a fifth term.

The competitive House races find five-term Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) fighting to finish second in the jungle primary and advance to the general election against retired NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler (R), who was one of two candidates who former President Donald Trump endorsed.

In the state’s southwestern District 3, Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) placed first over technology company executive Joe Kent (R), the man she upset in the general election from two years ago. While she captured just over 10,000 votes compared to Kent, the combined Republican turnout was almost 5,000 votes larger than the Democratic participation figure. Therefore, we can surmise that the Perez-Kent re-match will again end in close fashion, just as in 2022.

In the open 5th District, Spokane County Treasurer Mike Baumgartner (R), who had the backing of most conservative activists, placed first in the crowded jungle primary and will face Democrat Carmela Conroy, the Spokane County Democratic chair, in the general election. Because he drew a Democratic opponent in the general election in this safely Republican seat, Baumgartner is now the clear favorite to succeed retiring Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane).

In the open 6th, with candidates vying to succeed retiring six-term Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor), it appears that two state senators, Emily Randall (D-Bremerton) and Drew MacEwen (R-Union) will advance into the general election. State Land Commissioner Hilary Franz (D) lies about 5,500 votes behind MacEwen. With a large percentage of the vote left unreceived and uncounted, this race is not yet over, but the early numbers suggest the order will not change.

In the governor’s race, Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) easily outpaced former Congressman Dave Reichert (R), but both will advance to the general election. With Democrats comprising 56 percent of the early turnout figure, Ferguson will be difficult to defeat in the November election especially with Vice President Kamala Harris likely to record a big Washington state win over former President Trump.

Michigan: No Surprises — In the open Senate race, both Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) won landslide victories in their respective primaries. A tight general election is expected between these two top performing candidates.

The House races concluded as expected.

In what is sure to be a toss-up general election campaign, both former state senators Tom Barrett (R) and Curtis Hertel (D) were unopposed for their respective party nominations. The November battle will determine Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Lansing) successor.

In the competitive 8th District, as expected state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and former news anchor and two-time congressional nominee Paul Junge (R) won their respective primaries. Both the 7th and 8th districts will carry toss-up ratings into the general election. Overall Democratic turnout in the 8th CD was higher than the Republican participation rate which is a good sign for Rivet especially because, at this writing, GOP statewide turnout is higher than the Democratic number.

In the competitive 10th District, we will see a rematch between former judge and Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), who easily topped a crowded Democratic field, and freshman Rep. John James (R-Fountain Hills). In District 13, freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) turned back two Democratic challengers to virtually clinch a second term.

Polling Mish-Mash in PA; Trump Up, Moreno Down in Ohio; Toss-up in PA-7; Special Election Called in TX-18

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 6, 2024

President

Pennsylvania: A Polling Mish-Mash — Four pollsters released late July Pennsylvania results, and while Susquehanna Polling & Research and Public Opinion Strategies find Vice President Kamala Harris leading the state, Bloomberg/Morning Consult and Public Policy Polling still see former President Donald Trump having a slight advantage.

Susquehanna (July 22-28; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters) sees Harris leading 47-43 percent. Public Opinion Strategies (7/23-29; 400 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) posts the Vice President to a 48-45 percent edge. Bloomberg/Morning Consult (July 24-28; 800 likely Pennsylvania voters; online) sees a four point Trump lead, 50-46 percent, and Public Policy Polling (July 29-30; 627 registered Pennsylvania voters; live interview & text) also finds Trump with the slight edge, 48-47 percent. Combining all of this recent data suggests the race is a virtual dead heat and a long way from being decided.

Senate

Ohio: Trump, Brown Up — The familiar President-US Senate pattern we have witnessed in several states is again present even with a new Democratic presidential nominee. The bipartisan poll from Fabrizio Lee (R) and Impact Research (D) for AARP (July 23-29; 600 likely Ohio voters; live interview and text) finds former President Trump leading Vice President Harris by nine percentage points, 48-39 percent, while Republican US Senate nominee Bernie Moreno continues to trail Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). In the Senate ballot test, Democrat Sen. Brown’s lead is four points, 46-42 percent.

The Ohio margin spread is a net swing of 13 points, and a bit exaggerated from the other states exhibiting a similar pattern. In order to capitalize on Trump’s Ohio lead, the Moreno campaign must find a better way of painting Sen. Brown in a negative light in order to move the election toward the GOP challenger. So far, such has not occurred.

House

PA-7: District Continues Toss-Up Trend — The latest Tarrance Group poll (July 21-24; 404 likely PA-7 voters; live interview) sees Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) again embroiled in a tight re-election contest. In her last two races, Rep. Wild has won with 51-49 percent margins over the same GOP opponent, businesswoman Lisa Scheller. This time, she faces a different competitor, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Macungie Township). The Tarrance ballot test finds Rep. Wild’s lead at only 47-45 percent despite a large disparity in campaign resources, while former President Trump has a similar sized lead over Vice President Harris within the 7th District, 48-46 percent.

TX-18: Special Election Called — Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) announced that he will schedule the special election to fill the balance of the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s (D-Houston) term to run concurrently with the general election. If no one secures a majority on Nov. 5, a runoff will be scheduled. At that point, however, there will only be a few days remaining in the current term. The Harris County Democratic Party will choose a regular general election replacement for Rep. Jackson Lee.

The seat is heavily Democratic, so the field will consist almost entirely of that party’s members. Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner is an announced contender as are Houston Democratic state representatives Jarvis Johnson and Christina Morales. Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer is also an announced candidate along with former City Council members Amanda Edwards and Dwight Boykins. The party committee nomination process will occur before Aug. 17 according to the county chairman. Whoever the committee members choose will go a long way toward determining the special election winner, as well.

Tennessee Primary Results; DNC Presidential Nomination Vote Begins; New Candidate in FL-2; New Hampshire Governor’s Race Polling

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 2, 2024

States

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Tennessee: Primary Results — Volunteer State voters went to the polls yesterday and performed as one would have expected. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) scored a 90 percent victory over her minor Republican opponent and swept all 95 of the state’s counties. Heading into the November election, Sen. Blackburn is a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Four Democrats were vying for their party nomination, and state Rep. Gloria Johnson (D-Nashville) easily won the primary contest with 70 percent of the partisan vote. Johnson is one of the House members who participated in a state capitol rally for gun control that resulted in two other members being expelled from the legislature.

The most competitive race on the ballot comes in the Nashville anchored 5th Congressional District where Davidson County Metro Councilwoman Courtney Johnston (R) challenged freshman US Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) but fell considerably short of victory. Slightly out-fundraising the congressman and having double the outside financial support (approximately $700,000 to $350,000), Rep. Ogles was able to prevail with a 56-44 percent vote spread.

Ogles recorded big margins in the outlying rural counties, and held his own in Davidson County, which contains the city of Nashville. Clearly, the charges of him falsifying his background and not paying property taxes when he was a local government official had little bearing on the race. In a 5th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+15, Rep. Ogles now becomes a prohibitive favorite against Democratic economic development consultant Maryam Abolfazli.

In other races, both Reps. Scott DesJarlais (R-Sherwood) and Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) broke the 70 percent figure with easy wins over minor opponents.

President

DNC: Presidential Nomination Vote Begins — As expected, the Democratic National Committee, in advance of convening their national convention in Chicago beginning Aug. 19, are today beginning their official virtual roll call to nominate Vice President Kamala Harris to replace President Joe Biden as the party’s national nominee. The delegate vote is expected to consume several days, but Harris will likely officially become the party standard bearer early next week.

House

FL-2: Dems Choose New Nominee — After long-shot Democratic congressional candidate Meghann Hovey dropped her bid to challenge Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City), the local Democratic committees agreed to put forward the name of attorney Yen Bailey as the party’s replacement candidate. The Florida primary is not until Aug. 20, but because Hovey notified the election authorities of her decision to leave the race when she did, the local party apparatus had a chance to add another name to the primary ballot.

North Florida’s 2nd District is safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+16. Former President Donald Trump carried the seat four years ago with a whopping 67-32 percent victory margin. In 2022, Rep. Dunn defeated fellow Congressman Al Lawson (D) by a 60-40 percent margin after the two members were placed in the same district post-redistricting. The 2nd District contains all or part of 16 counties stretching from Panama City and through the Apalachicola, Tallahassee, and Perry communities within the Florida panhandle. Rep. Dunn is a sure bet for re-election in November.

Governor

New Hampshire: Ayotte, Craig Lead R and D Primary Voting — Emerson College tested the New Hampshire electorate in anticipation of the state’s late Sept. 10 primary election. The poll results (July 26-28; 1,000 registered New Hampshire voters; 433 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters; 421 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) found former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte leading ex-state Senate President Chuck Morse, 41-26 percent for the open Republican gubernatorial nomination.

On the Democratic side, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig has a 33-21 percent advantage over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. The two primary winners will square off in November to succeed retiring Gov. Chris Sununu (R).

Reviewing Tuesday’s
Arizona Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 1, 2024

Senate

Former news anchor and 2022 Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. Photo by Gage Skidmore

Tuesday was primary day in Arizona, and the Senate race is now set for the November campaign.

There was no mystery on the Democratic side as Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) was unopposed in his primary election. Much of the drama from the race evaporated when Independent incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema decided not to seek re-election for a second term. A three-way general election would have sent the campaign in unpredictable directions.

On the Republican side, as expected, former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake won the open Senate GOP nomination, but her victory margin over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb was far from overwhelming. Though the results won’t be final for some time, probably weeks under the modern system of mail balloting, and receiving votes after the election, the current numbers find Lake with only a 53-41 percent edge over Sheriff Lamb.

While enough votes have been tabulated, over 500,000 of what is expected to be a total that should exceed 700,000 votes, the Lake victory appears assured but seeing approximately 47% of Republicans support another candidate is not what she needed to enhance her underdog chances against Rep. Gallego.

House

Hotly contested congressional primaries were decided Tuesday night, and in at least two cases competitive general elections will follow.

In the tight 1st District, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) was renominated in the Republican primary, but with a lesser 63 percent against a pair of minor opponents who barely spent more than $100,000 apiece. The district slightly favors Republicans, but we can again expect a major general election battle in this Phoenix suburban district.

For the Democrats, who featured a highly competitive five-way primary, it appears that former state representative and physician Amish Shah, who resigned from the legislature to concentrate on his congressional campaign and lagged in the published polling, has presumptively claimed the Democratic nomination.

With about three-quarters of the vote counted, Dr. Shah has a three percentage point lead over race favorite Andrei Cherni, the former Arizona Democratic Party chairman, which translates into a margin exceeding 1,500 votes, probably enough to clinch the nomination. Former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, widow of the late Attorney General Grant Woods (D), is a close third, less than 600 votes behind Cherni.

In the 2nd District, freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley), one of the leaders in the movement to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, saw no after-effects of his action as he easily won renomination over former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith with almost 79 percent of the vote at this writing. Rep. Crane will now glide through the general election in this safe Republican district that covers most of eastern Arizona.

In District 3, the predicted close contest to succeed Rep. Gallego materialized. With outside support from pro-crypto currency PAC and the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC (DMFI), it appears that former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari has edged former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. Ansari has a 1,403-vote lead with approximately three-quarters of the vote counted. Though not yet projected, it appears Ansari is in the driver’s seat to win the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to claiming the seat in November.

Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) was easily renominated against minor Republican opposition, but his 62 percent total, which will likely grow when all votes are counted, is not what the congressman would have preferred. He will again face a tough challenge in the general election from his 2022 opponent, former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D). This race was decided by just 5,232 votes two years ago, so another close finish in the southeastern 6th CD is again forecast.

With Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) retiring from Congress and easily winning the Republican nomination for her Maricopa County Supervisorial district, the 8th District became the host to a very nasty Republican primary battle. The subject of most of the attacks, however, 2022 attorney general nominee Abe Hamadeh, who lost the statewide election by only 280 votes from more than 2.5 million ballots cast, appears to have won the GOP nomination to succeed Lesko.

With two-thirds of the vote counted, Hamadeh leads 2022 US Senate candidate Blake Masters by almost 4,700 votes. State House Speaker Ben Toma (R-Peoria) is just 818 votes behind Masters, while former US Rep. Trent Franks trails in 4th place some five percentage points behind the race leader. Assuming Hamadeh’s lead holds, he will be heavily favored to win the general election in November.

Michigan Senate Race Movement; Pennsylvania’s Casey Up Solidly; Surprising New Alabama Poll;
Cori Bush Trailing in Re-Election Bid

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Senate

Michigan: Pensler Out; Two Polls — Underdog Michigan US Senate candidate Sandy Pensler (R) announced that he is abandoning his own campaign and will instead endorse former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) for the GOP nomination to oppose US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). The congresswoman is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

A pair of polls were also released of the general election yielding considerably different results. While both find Rep. Slotkin leading, EPIC-MRA, the most prolific Michigan pollster (for the Detroit Free Press; July 13-17; 600 registered Michigan voters), sees the congresswoman posting a three point lead over Rogers, 43-40 percent.

Public Policy Polling, however, sees a more substantial Slotkin advantage. Their survey (July 17-18; 650 registered Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts a 46-38 percent result. Of the many polls taken of this race, the EPIC-MRA result is more consistent with the preponderance of other surveys.

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. / Photo: FoxNews.com

Pennsylvania: A Polling Trifecta — Three pollsters surveyed the Keystone State electorate, and all show Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) leading businessman David McCormick (R) beyond the polling margin of error. The most recent, from SoCal Research for the OnPoint political blog (July 20-21; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters; online), finds Sen. Casey posting a 10-point lead over McCormick, 50-40 percent, even while the same sample detects former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 50-46 percent.

Public Policy Polling, surveying for the liberal Clean and Prosperous American PAC (July 17-18; 624 registered Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques), found an almost identical result with Sen. Casey ahead 11 points, 50-39 percent.

Finally, British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies (for The Telegraph publication; July 16-18; 688 likely Pennsylvania voters; online, part of a seven-state polling track of 5,005 respondents) added the three minor party candidates to their ballot test and projects that Sen. Casey would lead McCormick 44-37 percent with the other candidates attracting a cumulative three percentage points.

House

AL-2: A Surprising New Poll — Alabama’s new 2nd Congressional District was drawn to elect an African American Democrat, but a recent Strategy Management poll for the Alabama Families PAC (7/22-24; 1,000 AL-2 registered voters; live interview & text) found Republican Caroleen Dobson polling close to race favorite Shomari Figures (D). The ballot test gives Figures just a 37-34 percent edge.

Additionally, Figures’ fundraising is far below what one would expect. According to the June 30th Federal Election Commission second quarter disclosure report, the Democratic nominee had raised only $894,000 as compared to Dobson’s $2.2 million, though $1.3 million of that total comes in the form of a candidate loan.

Figures is still favored in a seat that Kamala Harris should easily carry over Donald Trump, but Dobson’s effort may be worthy of more attention as the campaign season moves into prime time.

MO-1: Rep. Bush Trailing in Pre-Primary Survey — Apparently, the strong outside group influence aimed at defeating Missouri US Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis), approximately a 9:2 ratio in millions of dollars, is being well spent. A new Mellman Group poll July 21-24; 400 likely MO-1 Democratic primary voters) sees former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell leading Rep. Bush, 48-42 percent, as the candidates steam toward next week’s Aug. 6 primary election. The Bell lead has increased five points since a previous poll was published in June.

The chief funder of the anti-Bush efforts is the United Democracy Project, which is the political arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). This group also led to charge to defeat another anti-Israel incumbent on June 25, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY).

Harris Reportedly Narrowing VP Pick; Omar Has Huge Lead in MN-5; GOP Voter Registration Jump in Arizona

Click on image above or here to go to: Bloomberg News story.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 30, 2024

President

Vice President Harris: Reportedly Narrowing VP Pick — Bloomberg News is reporting that presumptive presidential nominee Kamala Harris has narrowed her selection for the 2nd slot on the national Democratic ticket to three individuals (see above): Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Gov. Josh Shapiro (PA) and Gov. Tim Walz (MN). If the report is valid, it means that Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and governors J.B. Pritzker (IL), Andy Beshear (KY), and Roy Cooper (NC) have been eliminated from consideration.

House

MN-5: Rep. Omar’s Huge Lead — It has been a bit surprising that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s (AIPAC) Super PAC affiliate, the United Democracy Project, which has spent millions of dollars targeting anti-Israel Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Cori Bush (D-MO), has spent nothing against one of their most vociferous congressional adversaries, Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis).

A new poll suggests why there has been so little outside involvement against Rep. Omar or for her top Democratic primary opponent, former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels. This looked like a competitive challenge at the outset considering that Samuels held Rep. Omar to a 50-48 percent renomination victory margin in 2022, but the current data suggests otherwise.

According to Rep. Omar’s internal poll from Lake Research Partners (July 17-21; 400 likely MN-5 Democratic primary voters; live interview) the ballot test projects the congresswoman to be holding a 60-33 percent lead over Samuels. The fact that the incumbent’s lead is so large dissuades opposition involvement since the die appears already cast for the Aug. 13 primary election.

States

Arizona: Latest Registration Figures Reveal GOP Jump — Arizona Republicans have consistently out-registered Democrats over the years, but the latest released pre-primary figures find the GOP posting its strongest margin of the last three election cycles. Arizona also features a large Independent and minor parties’ registration category. It is this latter group that now makes the state so politically close.

According to the Secretary of State’s report, Republicans now claim 35.4 percent of the Arizona registered voters, which is 6.3 points higher than the Democrats’ 29.1 percent figure. The Independent/Other category has the second highest contingent, at 33.9 percent. The R to D split is almost three full percentage points higher when compared to the 2020 election when President Joe Biden scratched out a tight 49.4 – 49.1 percent victory over then-President Donald Trump.

The new registration data gives credence to the Real Clear Politics calculated 6.4 percent average that former President Trump holds over Vice President Harris. The figure is derived from the three cumulative July Grand Canyon State surveys. Arizona continues as one of the most important swing domains in this election cycle.

Virtual Tie Between Trump, Harris; Movement in Texas to Fill Jackson Lee’s Seat; Six Dems Criticize VP Harris’s Role in Securing Border

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 26, 2024

President

National Polls: A Virtual Tie — From July 21-24, eight political pollsters conducted national ballot tests of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The surveys produced mixed results. All were conducted online and came from Activote, YouGov, Ipsos, RMG Research, Big Village, Change Research, Morning Consult, and the New York Times/Siena College. The range was from Harris, plus-four to Trump, plus-3. Of the nine polls (YouGov ran two), Trump was ahead in five and Harris four.

New Hampshire: First Polls Favor Harris — While polling was showing former President Trump pulling just ahead of President Biden in New Hampshire before the latter man left the race, two new surveys see a reversal back toward the Democratic nominee in identical margins.

St. Anselm’s College and the University of New Hampshire, both regular Granite State pollsters, went into the field to test Trump against presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. St. Anselm’s (July 24-25; 2,083 registered New Hampshire voters; online) sees Harris leading Trump, 50-44 percent. UNH (July 23-25; 2,875 registered New Hampshire voters; online) found a similar 49-43 percent spread. Both detected the six-point margin.

Trump did not run well in New Hampshire in the last election, losing to President Biden, 53-45 percent. Therefore, continued polling results such as seen in these two flash polls may suggest the Trump campaign will move to more fertile territory.

House

TX-18: Potential Candidates Begin Making Moves — The death of veteran Texas US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) means the Harris County Democratic Party will choose a replacement on the November ballot for her. The Committee members must make their selection before Aug. 26, but the leadership indicates the body will act well before the deadline.

Potential Democratic candidates include former Houston mayor and ex-state Representative Sylvester Turner, at-large Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer, and former US Senate and congressional candidate Amanda Edwards. The 18th District, fully contained within Harris County, is heavily Democratic. Therefore, whomever the party members choose will assuredly win the seat in November. Thus, this small group of activists will have the power to designate the area’s next member of Congress.

House Democrats: Vulnerable Members Break Ranks — Six Democrats broke party ranks to support a Republican resolution criticizing Vice President Harris’ role in securing the border. Not surprisingly, the six are all in competitive House districts, and among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents seeking re-election. They are: Reps. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO-8), Henry Cuellar (D-TX-28), Don Davis (D-NC-1), Jared Golden (D-ME-2), Mary Peltola (D-AK-AL), and Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-WA-3).