Category Archives: House

House Re-Match Recap – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 28, 2025

House

We have been witnessing recent 2026 campaign action in some of the closest 2024 US House races. Several re-matches are on the political horizon.

Yesterday, we published Part I; today, we continue our update of potential re-match House campaigns in states stretching from Maine to Wisconsin.

ME-2:

  • ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D) over St. Rep. Austin Theriault (R)
  • 50.3 – 49.6%; Vote Difference: 2,706

The main impediment to seeing a re-match of this tight 2024 campaign is whether Rep. Golden will run again. Persistent rumors are present that he will enter the open race for Governor since incumbent Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Should the Congressman eschew the Governor’s race and seek re-election to a fifth term, he is virtually assured of again facing Theriault, a former NASCAR driver, who is almost a sure bet to run again in 2026.

MI-7:

  • Ex-Sen. Tom Barrett (R) defeated ex-Sen. Curtis Hertel (D)
  • 50.3 – 46.6%; Vote Difference: 16,763

After losing the 2022 congressional race to then-incumbent Elissa Slotkin (D), Republican Barrett returned two years later for an open-seat race and defeated former state Senator and gubernatorial chief of staff Hertel. There is no indication that Hertel will run again, and eyes are pointing to state Sen. Sarah Anthony (D-Lansing) as a potential opponent for Rep. Barrett.

MI-10:

  • Rep. John James (R) defeated ex-Judge Carl Marlinga (D)
  • 51.1 – 45.0%; Vote Difference: 26,074

Though challenger Marlinga is saying he plans to run again, he may not face Rep. James. It is becoming clearer that the Congressman will enter the open Governor’s race where he enjoys huge polling leads for the Republican nomination and a potentially favorable three-way setup in the general election that features Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent.

Marlinga will be challenged in the Democratic primary, regardless of the circumstances since the party leadership views him as an under-performing candidate. Without Rep. James in the field, the 10th District becomes a major national Democratic conversion opportunity.

NE-2:

  • Rep. Don Bacon (R) outpaced state Sen. Tony Vargas (D)
  • 50.9 – 49.1%; Vote Difference: 5,829

State Sen. Vargas challenged Rep. Bacon for the second time and again fell short in a district that both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris carried in the presidential race. It is likely that Vargas will not be back for a third run against Congressman Bacon. The Democratic leadership is expressing a desire for a different nominee in a continued desire to unseat the five-term Representative who specializes in winning close elections.

NC-1:

  • Rep. Don Davis (D) overcame retired Col. Laurie Buckhout (R)
  • 49.5 – 47.8%; Vote Difference: 6,307

The 2024 North Carolina redistricting plan made the 1st District much more competitive, thus explaining Rep. Davis’ close re-election result. First-time candidate Buckhout performed well and is said to be considering making another attempt in 2026. The district is obviously more competitive, but it is also possible that the close ’24 finish is the best the Republicans can expect.

OH-9:

  • Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) nipped state Rep. Derek Merrin (R)
  • 49.5 – 47.8%; Vote Difference: 2,382

Rep. Kaptur, who is the second-most senior current House Democratic member with now 22 terms in office, had one of her closest calls in 2024. This is largely due to the 2021 Ohio redistricting plan that made the Toledo-anchored seat a largely Republican domain (FiveThirtyEight rating: R+6).

State Rep. Merrin made the race close and may return for another attempt. If he doesn’t run, count on Republicans to again heavily target this seat with a strong challenger because GOP conversion opportunities around the country will not be overly plentiful.

OH-13:

  • Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) defeated ex-Sen. Kevin Coughlin (R)
  • 51.1 – 48.9%; Vote Difference: 8,542

The Akron-anchored 13th District is another politically marginal seat that leans Democratic. Rep. Sykes, re-elected for the first time, has won two close elections and can expect to face another tough race in 2026.

Kevin Coughlin, out of campaign politics since last elected to the legislature in 2006, returned to run a strong race. It is possible he returns for a re-match. If not, Republicans are again expected to heavily target the district with a new candidate.

PA-7:

  • State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) unseated Rep. Susan Wild (D)
  • 50.5 – 49.5%; Vote Difference: 4,062

The Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton district is another seat designed as politically marginal, and it has lived up to its billing. After winning two close re-election battles against the same Republican opponent, Rep. Wild fell short against Mackenzie.

Though she has discussed a comeback attempt, that is now less likely with the Northampton County Executive, Lamont McClure (D), entering the ’26 congressional race. We can expect another very tight election coming next year, but the candidates will be different than seen in the immediate past.

PA-8:

  • Rob Bresnahan (R) unseated Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)
  • 50.8 – 49.2%; Vote Difference: 6,272

Though 2021 redistricting made the 8th District decidedly Republican, veteran Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) was able to hold a conservative district despite a liberal voting record. His congressional tenure ended in November, however, when businessman Bresnahan unseated him.

Cartwright has discussed mounting a comeback, but his intentions have not yet been definitive. Realistically, having the former Congressman back as the party nominee is probably the only way the Democrats would have a chance of regaining the seat. Otherwise, Rep. Bresnahan would be favored for re-election in a district the FiveThirtyEight data group rates as R+8.

Before the election, the Down Ballot political blog statisticians rated PA-8 as the fourth-most vulnerable seat that any Democrat held.

PA-10:

  • Rep. Scott Perry (R) defeated Janelle Stelson (D)
  • 50.6 – 49.4%; Vote Difference: 5,133

Veteran Rep. Perry was not a beneficiary of the 2021 redistricting plan as the addition of the Harrisburg area to the 10th District made his seat more competitive. Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+9, it has played much closer in recent down ballot elections.

Rep. Perry has now won three consecutive close elections, but former news anchor Stelson proved to be his toughest opponent. At this point, there has been no mention of Stelson returning to run in 2026.

VA-2:

  • Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) topped Missy Cotter Smasal (D)
  • 50.7 – 46.9%; Vote Difference: 15,702

Virginia’s 2nd District is another one that has bounced between the parties, but GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans, a retired Naval officer, is proving a good fit for the constituency. After unseating then-Rep. Elaine Luria (D) in 2022, Rep. Kiggans won re-election defeating businesswoman and former state Senate candidate Smasal.

Though the Congresswoman never appeared in danger of losing, the closeness of the race reveals that District 2 has a loyal Democratic partisan base. No talk yet of a re-match here, and it is likely the Democratic leadership would prefer a candidate with a stronger resume than that of Smasal.

VA-7:

  • Col. Eugene Vindman (D) edged Derrick Anderson (R)
  • 50.7 – 46.9%; Vote Difference: 10,489

The northern Virginia 7th District was drawn as a lean Democratic district, and it has performed as planned. The seat was open because then-Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) retired from Congress in order to concentrate on a 2025 run for Governor. This opened the door for retired Army Col. Eugene Vindman, known as a staunch opponent of President Donald Trump, vis-à-vis the Russia-Ukraine War, to run for Congress.

Vindman became one of the nation’s top congressional fundraisers and used his strong 6:1 spending advantage over Republican Anderson to secure his tight victory. Talk of a re-match has not surfaced, and it is doubtful that Anderson will return to run again. It is likely that this seat will trend more Democratic as the northern Virginia demographic and voting pattern continues to solidify.

WI-3:

  • Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) defeated Rebecca Cooke (D)
  • 51.3 – 48.6%; Vote Difference: 11,258

Despite some negative publicity relating to certain controversial comments and actions of Rep. Van Orden, the party faithful closed ranks behind him and delivered a close re-election victory.

The southwestern 3rd District’s electorate appears more Republican on paper (FiveThirtyEight: R+9) largely because of its performance in presidential elections, but votes in down ballot races often produce Democratic results. This is illustrated through Van Orden’s predecessor, Rep. Ron Kind (D), who represented the seat for 26 years before retiring in 2022.

Cooke is one of the past Democratic candidates discussing making another run, as is the 2022 Democratic nominee and sitting state Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-La Crosse). It is possible that Rep. Van Orden will see one of his previous opponents again in 2026, but at this point it is hard to see whether Sen. Pfaff, Cooke, or another individual emerges from the Democratic fold.

House Re-Match Recap – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025

House

We have been witnessing recent 2026 campaign action in some of the closest 2024 US House races. Several re-matches are on the political horizon.

Today and tomorrow, we will review 23 of the closest ‘24 House contests and identify which of the districts could host a re-match campaign. Part I will cover the most competitive CDs from Alaska through Iowa.

AK-AL:

  • Nick Begich III (R) unseated then-Rep. Mary Peltola (D)
  • 51.2 – 48.8% — Vote Difference: 7,876

Reports suggest that former Rep. Peltola is getting Democratic Party and community leader pressure to run for Governor, US Senate, and US House. There is a good chance that she chooses the open Governor’s race.

Therefore, a re-match between she and Rep. Begich currently appears as a long shot. No candidate from either party has yet come forward to declare interest in challenging Begich.

AZ-1:

  • Rep. David Schweikert (R) defeated State Rep. Amish Shah (D)
  • 51.9 – 48.1% — Vote Difference: 16,572

Veteran Rep. Schweikert, now in a more competitive post-redistricting seat, won a relatively comfortable victory over then-State Representative and physician Amish Shah. At this point, Dr. Shah is signaling returning for a re-match but will again have competition in the Democratic primary.

Administrative Law Judge Brian Del Vecchio (D) has already announced his congressional candidacy. Former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who placed a close third in the 2024 First District Democratic primary, is viewed as a possible candidate as is National Guardsman Jimmy McCain (D), the son of the late Sen. John McCain (R). The 2026 AZ-1 race will again be a highly competitive race.

AZ-2:

  • Rep. Eli Crane (R) defeated former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez (D)
  • 54.5 – 45.5% — Vote Difference: 36,450

Rep. Crane defended his northeastern Arizona district with a nine-point win, but this was a closer than expected contest from what is regarded as a safe Republican seat (FiveThirtyEight data rating: R+15). Nez spent over $5.4 million, which put his campaign on the political map.

The 2024 challenger has already announced that he will return for a re-match and no Democratic primary opposition is expected. This race could become a second-tier target.

AZ-6:

  • Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) topped ex-state Senator Kirsten Engel (D)
  • 50 – 47.5% — Vote Difference: 10,822

The 2024 campaign marked the second time Ciscomani and Engel fought to a close finish. In last November’s race, Rep. Ciscomani, while still winning a close matchup, almost doubled his victory margin from 2022 when the newly constructed seat was open.

Engel is indicating she will not return for a third run, and retired Marine Corps Sgt. Jo Mendoza (D) has already declared her candidacy. The nature of the Tucson-anchored southeastern Arizona 6th CD is tightly partisan, so we can expect seeing a close finish here in 2026 and likely in every election year throughout the remainder of the decade.

CA-9:

  • Rep. Josh Harder (D) outpaced Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R)
  • 51.8 – 48.2% — Vote Difference: 9,009

Republicans recruited a strong candidate in Mayor Kevin Lincoln, who won an election in the 9th District’s most Democratic locality. He is reportedly undecided about seeking a re-match with Rep. Harder who outspent the Mayor in a 2:1 ratio. It is likely that only Mayor Lincoln could put this seat in play for 2026.

CA-13:

  • Adam Gray (D) unseated Rep. John Duarte (R)
  • 50.04 – 49.96% — Vote Difference: 187

The closest US House contest in the country went the Democrats’ way as former state Assemblyman Adam Gray returned for a 2024 re-match with MDuarte and this time landed on the winning side of a razor-thin margin of 187 votes from 210,921 ballots cast. In 2022, Duarte won with a 564-vote spread.

Duarte is lobbying for a position in the new Trump Administration as the Administrator of the Bureau of Reclamation. He says he is open to running for the House again, so it remains to be seen if a third Gray-Duarte campaign will transpire.

The former Congressman losing was a bit of a surprise considering President Trump carried the 13th District by six percentage points. One would have believed such a coattail margin would have been enough to bring an incumbent Representative through.

CA-45:

  • Derek Tran (D) unseated Rep. Michelle Steel (R)
  • 50.1 – 49.9% — Vote Difference: 653

The second-closest House race in the country was also found in California, as attorney Derek Tran just slipped past two-term Rep. Steel by 653 votes from 315,875 ballots cast. This is a race where a re-match was immediately announced, as Steel said she would make a return appearance in 2026 right after the election and filed a campaign committee before 2024 ended.

Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates this seat as D+5, Steel has already proven she is very competitive within the region. This will once again be a hotly contested race next year that could go either way.

CO-8:

  • State Rep. Gabe Evans (R) unseated Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D)
  • 48.9 – 48.2% — Vote Difference: 2,449

In a district designed as politically marginal and one that would consistently reflect the will of a tight partisan electorate, Colorado’s 8th CD in its two terms of existence has performed as intended. Both Caraveo in 2022 and Evans in 2024 won the seat with less than majority support. We can again expect a highly competitive campaign next year.

It does not appear that Caraveo will attempt to reclaim the seat that she lost in November. Already, however, the Democrats have a new candidate in the person of state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) who has officially announced his congressional candidacy. CO-8 will become a top targeted 2026 national campaign.

CT-5:

  • Rep. Jahana Hayes (D) defeated ex-state Sen. George Logan (R)
  • 53.4 – 46.6% — Vote Difference: 23,010

After surviving a close call with then-state Sen. Logan in 2022, Rep. Hayes expanded her victory margin and has likely sent her opponent into political exile at least for a while. There is no indication that Logan will return for a third try especially since he lost ground in his second attempt. The district is competitive (FiveThirtyEight: D+3), so expect the GOP to recruit another strong challenger, but probably not Logan.

IA-1:

  • Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated ex-St. Rep. Christina Bohannan (D)
  • 48.4 – 48.2% — Vote Difference: 799

The third-closest House race was present in southeast Iowa. Four years ago, a different configuration of this district delivered the closest election of the decade, a six-vote win for Miller-Meeks.

This campaign signaled that a close general election would occur when Rep. Miller-Meeks recorded a low 56 percent win over her GOP challenger David Pautsch, an opponent who spent only $38,382 on his campaign. Pautsch has announced he will return for a primary re-match and promises to run a more professional campaign.

In the 2024 general election, Rep. Miller-Meeks again defeated — and this time by a much smaller margin — ex-state Rep. Bohannan. Whether a third version of this pairing happens in 2026 remains to be seen, but Bohannan has not ruled out another comeback attempt.

Expect the Congresswoman to move to the right to blunt her primary opposition. Regardless of who the Democrats put forth this general election campaign will evolve into another political dogfight.

Rep. Cuellar’s Potential Challenger

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 21, 2025

House

Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)

Republicans are working to recruit a new challenger in Texas to run against veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), and they may have found their man.

Reports are surfacing that the GOP leadership is attempting to recruit Webb County Judge (referred to as County Executive in most places) Tano Tijerina who is a new Republican. Saying that, “hard work, faith, family, and freedom” were “no longer pillars in the Democrat party,” Tijerina converted to the Republican Party in December. Now, the party leaders hope he will challenge Rep. Cuellar in 2026.

Henry Cuellar was first elected to Congress in 2004 and has since become the most bipartisan member of the House Democratic Conference. He is also facing a federal indictment on bribery and money laundering charges with a trial scheduled to begin in the Spring with jury selection currently scheduled for March 31. It remains to be seen if the Trump Justice Department moves forward with this case.

Despite being under a well-publicized indictment, Cuellar was re-elected to an 11th term in November with a 52.8 – 47.2 percent margin over retired Navy Commander Jay Furman (R) who moved to the district from another state for the singular purpose of opposing Cuellar.

Therefore, with Furman having little in the way of local connections or history within the district the Congressman was easily able to out-raise his opponent and ended the campaign with a better than 3:1 spending advantage. Thus, Furman’s unfamiliarity with the local region made him a weak candidate though he was still able to out-poll Rep. Cuellar in three counties.

The 28th District begins in the eastern sector of San Antonio and then moves south all the way to the Mexican border. Tijerina’s Webb County, which houses the city of Laredo, is the district’s largest entity encompassing approximately 35 percent of the CD’s population. Bexar County, where San Antonio lies, is the second largest of the district’s nine counties, holding about 33 percent of the constituency.

CD-28’s population is 72 percent Hispanic, yet in the 2024 election President Donald Trump carried the South Texas region — the first time a Republican had done that since 1912, according to the Down Ballot political blog statisticians. He topped Kamala Harris in the Cuellar District by a 51-48 percent clip.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-28 as D+7, but the latest statistics might suggest a tightening of that rating. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 55.2D – 42.7R partisan lean, and the Down Ballot data organization ranks the district as the 53rd most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

While Rep. Cuellar still maintains a partisan advantage, his edge is far from insurmountable. Tijerina has averaged 88.2 percent of the vote in his three countywide elections, which makes him a very formidable prospective opponent.

At this early point in the 2026 election cycle, conversion opportunities for either party appear few and far between, and virtually non-existent in Texas. Should the Republicans successfully recruit Tijerina into this race, the GOP would have scored a clear point in their favor and a new seriously competitive challenge race would soon form.

House Member Movement – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 19, 2025

House

Today, we conclude our report about state political developments affecting the 2026 campaign cycle and how House member electoral moves could be influenced.

Minnesota — Sen. Tina Smith’s (D) surprise retirement announcement could trigger a major Democratic primary battle between two of the state’s top office holders. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has already indicated that she plans to enter the open Senate campaign, but apparently Gov. Tim Walz is also likewise contemplating his chances for such a race.

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D)

Because Minnesota has no term limits anchored to its statewide offices, Gov. Walz could run for a third term. This unfolding situation makes the Minnesota open Senate race one of the nation’s top early campaigns.

On the Republican side, both House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Delano) and Rep. Pete Stauber (R-Hermantown/Duluth) say they will not run for the Senate.

New Hampshire — Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is in-cycle but has yet to say whether she will seek a fourth term next year. The Senator indicates a decision will be forthcoming in the next few months. Looking at her largely bipartisan votes on the Trump cabinet appointments suggests that she may be leaning toward running.

If Sen. Shaheen decides to retire, look for Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) to run for the Senate. Freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) is another possibility, but Pappas would be the more likely to seek and win the Democratic nomination.

New Jersey — The Garden State hosts its gubernatorial election this year, and two House members are running for the post. Since this is an odd-year election, neither Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) nor Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) must risk their seat to run statewide.

Should one of them be elected Governor, a special congressional election will be called to fill the balance of the vacated term. Republicans would be more competitive in the Gottheimer seat, but special elections in either district would be contested.

New York — Incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is running for re-election, and her statewide campaign effort looks to have a major effect upon the Empire State US House delegation. Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) has made no secret that he is analyzing his chances of defeating Gov. Hochul in the June 2026 Democratic primary. With the Governor possessing low approval ratings, Rep. Torres’ impending challenge is regarded as serious.

On the Republican side, two-term Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) is also assessing a Governor’s bid. Again, because Hochul appears weak, the eventual Republican nominee is projected to be in a more competitive position than for a typical election. Should Lawler leave his House district (FiveThirtyEight data organization rating D+7) the Democrats would have the inside track toward converting the seat.

Later this year, the state’s northeastern 21st District will go to special election once Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) is confirmed as US Ambassador to the United Nations. Republicans would be favored to hold the seat, but Democrats captured this district in a 2009 special election after then-Rep. John McHugh (R) resigned to become Secretary of the Army. The local Democratic county chairs have already selected dairy farmer Blake Gendebien as their special election nominee. Republicans have yet to designate their candidate.

South Carolina — Gov. Henry McMaster (R), now the longest serving state chief executive in South Carolina history, is ineligible to seek a third full term next year. McMaster’s exit will leave a crowded and competitive open Republican gubernatorial primary. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), look to be sure candidates.

In the House delegation, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) confirms she is also considering running for Governor, while Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) indicates that he is contemplating challenging Sen. Lindsey Graham in the Republican Senate primary.

South Dakota — Gov. Kristi Noem (R) resigned her position to become US Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Upon her leaving office, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) ascended to the governorship. While Rhoden remains noncommittal about running for a full term, reports indicate that at-large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is making plans to run for Governor irrespective of whether the new incumbent becomes a candidate.

Should Rep. Johnson enter the statewide race, the June Republican primary for the open House seat would feature a crowded field. The eventual GOP nominee would then become a prohibitive favorite to win the general election.

Tennessee — For a time, it appeared that we would see multiple Republican US House members entering the Governor’s race to succeed term-limited incumbent Bill Lee (R). When Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) began making moves to join the Governor’s field the situation changed. Now, it appears that only Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) may be an impediment to Sen. Blackburn’s apparent quest for the gubernatorial nomination.

Initially, it appeared that Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) and possibly Diana Harshbarger (R-Kingsport) were all considering becoming statewide candidates. If Rep Rose ultimately decides to run for Governor, a crowded plurality Republican primary would decide his successor in the 6th Congressional District. As candidate filing approaches in April of 2026, the race will become better defined.

Texas — At this point, most of the Texas political attention surrounds whether Attorney General Ken Paxton will challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the March 2026 Republican primary. With Gov. Greg Abbott (R) saying he will run for a fourth term, it appears the rest of the Republican field will be frozen.

Should Paxton run for the Senate, we will see a crowded primary form for state Attorney General. Possibly the only Republican House member who might have interest in running for this statewide post is veteran Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin). It remains to be seen if any of the Democratic House members would show interest in an Attorney General’s campaign.

Vermont — Though Vermont has become one of the most reliable of Democratic states, Republican Gov. Phil Scott has won five consecutive two-year terms. It won’t be known until much closer to the next election whether the Governor will run for a sixth term, but if he retires Democrats are virtually assured of capturing the office.

It would be quite likely that at-large Rep. Becca Balint (D-Brattleboro) would seek the party nomination for Governor. If so, we would again see a crowded and competitive Democratic primary for the state’s singular House seat.

Wisconsin — Gov. Tony Evers (D) is eligible to run for a third term and has hinted that he will do so. Several Republican House members have at one time or another been considered as having statewide aspirations. They are: Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien), and Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua). Once Gov. Evers makes public his political intentions, more will become known about potential opponents.

Wisconsin has a late primary beginning with a candidate filing deadline in June of 2026. Therefore, expect the Wisconsin House delegation to be in flux for quite some time.

Wyoming — Gov. Mark Gordon (R) is term limited in 2026, but the courts have seemingly left the door open for a legal challenge to the Wyoming election law. It is unclear at this point if Gov. Gordon will contest the law and attempt to run for a third term.

At-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) is reportedly a potential Republican candidate regardless of Gov. Gordon’s electoral status. If she risks the House seat, we will see a highly competitive GOP primary develop with the winner becoming the prohibitive favorite for the general election.

House Member Movement, Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025

House

Open races for Governor and in some cases Senator have already led to anticipated movement in the US House delegations. Today, we look at action from half the country. Tomorrow, Part II.

Alaska — Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, and most of the early political speculation involves defeated Rep. Mary Peltola (D) and what might be her next political move. Peltola says she’s been getting encouragement to run for Governor, or even against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), or to seek a re-match with freshman Republican at-large Congressman Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak). The former Congresswoman jokingly said, “I might run for all three!”

In reality, her best chance for victory would be in the open Governor’s race. Expect her to enter that battle, which leaves Rep. Begich in a much stronger position for re-election.

Karrin Taylor Robson / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona — Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is already making moves to challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). It appears, however, that he will first face 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson in the Republican primary. Robson already has an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Still, Rep. Biggs begins with an early polling lead. Arizona’s 5th District is safely Republican. Therefore, we can expect to see a crowded and competitive Republican primary in late July of 2026.

Largely due to health reasons, Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) announced even before the end of last year that he would not seek re-election in 2026. His retirement will yield a contested Democratic primary in a seat that stretches from just southeast of Tucson along the Mexican border all the way to California.

Colorado — Gov. Jared Polis (D) is term-limited in 2026, and his lame duck status is igniting a round of political musical chairs.

Two Democratic members of the House delegation are likely to run for Governor. Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder), who is staked to small early Democratic primary polling leads, and Jason Crow (D-Aurora) are both testing the waters for a statewide run. Should both enter the Governor’s race, we will see hotly contested Democratic primaries in Districts 2 and 6. Each seat is safely Democratic, so the major political action will be in the June primary.

Connecticut — Gov. Ned Lamont (D) could run for a third term but has said he won’t make a decision about his electoral future until after the legislative session ends halfway through this year. The most likely House member to make a statewide move, should Gov. Lamont decide to retire, is Rep. Jim Himes (D-Cos Cob). If the Governor runs again, which is likely, expect no movement in the Connecticut congressional delegation.

Florida — Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, but his wife, Casey DeSantis, is sending signals that she may run. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) has opened with a big polling lead in surveys that have not yet included Casey DeSantis. Should Rep. Donalds run for Governor, he will leave a crowded Republican primary in his wake. The 19th District, however, is strongly Republican, so don’t expect the Democrats to contest the seat in the general election.

Two-term Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) was threatening, before Gov. DeSantis chose state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) to replace now Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Senate, to primary the appointed Senator. His rhetoric has been less intense since Moody took the seat, so it remains to be seen if Rep. Mills launches a primary challenge. If the 7th District opens, expect a highly competitive Republican primary followed by a moderately contested general election.

Georgia — It appears we will see a great deal of action in the Peach State next year. Two-term Gov. Brian Kemp (R) cannot succeed himself, but he may challenge first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D).

Irrespective of Gov. Kemp’s plans, his position will be open. Already four House members, Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) have discussed running statewide either for Governor or Senator. Most would defer to Gov. Kemp if he decides to run for the Senate. Depending upon eventual circumstances, we could see wholesale change within the Georgia Republican House delegation.

For the Democrats, largely due to health problems, Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) is expected to either retire or face a difficult Democratic primary challenge. State Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur), who has won 11 elections to his current state legislative seat, has already declared his intent to run for Congress in 2026. This guarantees that a highly competitive Democratic primary will commence irrespective of whether Rep. Scott seeks re-election.

Kansas — Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so the focus will be upon those vying to succeed her. National Democratic leaders would like to see four-term Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park/Kansas City) run for Governor, but it is unclear whether Rep. Davids, who has secured what had been, heretofore, a marginal political seat, will risk her current position to run statewide as an underdog in reliably red Kansas. No Republican House member is expected to run statewide.

Kentucky — Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) has already expressed interest in running for the Senate if former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) announces his retirement as expected. Barr is likely to face ex-Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron in the Republican primary.

Democrats are attempting to recruit Gov. Andy Beshear for the Senate race, so Kentucky will become a very interesting political state in 2026. Should Rep. Barr run statewide, his 6th District would become moderately competitive, but the eventual Republican nominee would be favored to hold the seat.

Maine — Gov. Janet Mills (D) is another of the term-limited Governors, and as such all eyes are on four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) to see if he will make the move into the open statewide race. At this point, Golden is non-committal about his 2026 political plans. He survived a close 2024 re-election battle with former NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R).

Therefore, the Congressman would very likely face a competitive re-match should he decide to seek re-election if he eschews a bid for Governor.

Michigan — For the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and open Senate race in the same election cycle. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is another of the term-limited state chief executives, and Sen. Gary Peters (D) has already announced his retirement. Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) leads all Republicans in polling for the open Governor’s office and is expected to again run statewide.

Democratic Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) have been tested in Senate polling, but neither fare well. Despite two major statewide openings, it is probable that Rep. James, at least at this time, is the only House member willing to risk his seat for a statewide bid.

New Jersey Free-For-All

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025

Governor

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill

Two late January political surveys post Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) holding small leads in the crowded 2025 New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial primary, but all six candidates remain very much in the running.

Public Policy Polling (Jan. 22-23; 615 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters) finds Rep. Sherrill clinging to a 16-11-9-9-9-5 percent edge over New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, while the next three contenders, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, are all tied and slightly ahead of Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff).

A day earlier, Emerson College finished their statewide poll (Jan. 18-21; 437 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters; 334 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) which also saw a jumbled Democratic field with most voters responding that they have yet to make a determinative decision.

According to the Emerson data, Rep. Sherrill also records a small lead but with a spread even tighter than PPP’s finding. The Emerson ballot test projects a 10-8-8-7-7-4 percent posting with Sherrill leading followed by Spiller, Mayor Baraka, Rep. Gottheimer, Sweeney, and Mayor Fulop. Again, this data suggests that the Democratic primary race is wide open, and all six contenders could still develop momentum to win the June 10 plurality primary.

The eventual Democratic nominee, according to the Emerson poll, is likely to face 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, a former state Assemblyman who lost to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) in a 51-48 percent finish that was much closer than expected.

The Emerson poll also forecasts Ciattarelli with a large but not insurmountable Republican primary lead. According to the ballot test results, the 2021 gubernatorial nominee would lead radio talk show host Bill Spadea, 26-13 percent, with state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Plainfield) posting four percent, while five other minor candidates poll support figures of three percent or less.

Political party registration in New Jersey, according to the NJ Division of Elections latest data (Feb. 1, 2025, report), finds Democrats holding a 37.4 – 24.4 percent edge in partisan affiliation. A total of 37.0 percent are unaffiliated, with slightly less than one percent of the electorate being registered in a minor political party.

Republicans, however, have gained a half-percentage point in relation to the Democrats in the three-plus months since the 2024 election. This translates into a net Republican gain of 23,061 voters. In this period, Republican registration has grown 22,686 while the Democrats have dropped 375 registered voters. In January alone, the GOP net gain factor was 10,480 individuals. Should this trend continue through the 2025 election period, the November contest could turn into a highly competitive political affair.

Resources will, of course, be a major factor in the candidates moving forward. One would believe that both Reps. Sherril and Gottheimer would be dominant on the fundraising front, yet the state rules are different. Both Representatives have become two of the most prolific fundraisers in the US House, but they face a major obstacle in their respective gubernatorial bids.

Under current New Jersey financial disclosure reports, both Reps. Sherrill and Gottheimer are on the low end of the spectrum (each raising under $1.7 million – Fulop leads all candidates with just over $2.8 million raised), but that doesn’t include the transfers the federal candidates can execute. Here is where the state law penalizes the two House members. Under the state’s campaign finance law, only $17,300 can be transferred from a candidate’s committee to another committee.

According to the year-end Federal Election Commission reports, Rep. Gottheimer had just over $20 million in his congressional account, meaning he can only transfer less than one percent of his available funds. Rep. Sherrill posted just over $183,000 cash-on-hand, which means $166,000 is nontransferable.

Featuring such a crowded and unclear Democratic primary with all candidates basically on even footing, the New Jersey Governor’s race promises to be one of the more interesting statewide contests slated for this year.

Rep. Donalds Atop New Gov Poll

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 10, 2025

Governor

Florida Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

A new Florida Republican primary poll suggests that three-term Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) holds an early commanding lead over selected potential 2026 candidates who will compete for the right to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).

Though no major candidate has formally announced for Governor, Rep. Donalds appears to be a definitive bet to run. The Victory Insights research firm commissioned a late January Republican voters’ poll (Jan. 26-27; 850 likely Florida 2026 Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system and text) and found Rep. Donalds holding a substantial 33-4-3-1 percent advantage over Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez. Not included was former Rep. Matt Gaetz who, from time to time, has indicated he would run for Governor in 2026.

It has now become unlikely that Lt. Gov. Nunez will become a gubernatorial candidate. This week it was announced that she will resign her position to become the interim President of Florida International University.

Obviously, this survey provides good news for Rep. Donalds who, despite being a relatively junior House member in terms of seniority, is a frequent guest on a variety of Fox News programs. Therefore, he has become well known to his state’s conservative voter base.

Gov. DeSantis may not view Rep. Donalds’ current standing in the 2026 Governor’s campaign as entirely positive. Donalds is very close to President Trump and endorsed him over his own Governor in the 2024 presidential primaries. Therefore, DeSantis’ opportunity to recast the statewide elected officials via appointment could be his way of preparing a more favored candidate for entering the political battle that will determine his own successor.

The Florida political scene will soon change because Gov. DeSantis has the unusual opportunity of appointing an entire new slate of statewide officials.

With Marco Rubio being confirmed as President Trump’s Secretary of State, Gov. DeSantis appointed state Attorney General Ashley Moody to replace him in the Senate. This allowed Gov. DeSantis to appoint his own chief of staff, James Uthmeier, as Florida’s new Attorney General.

With Nunez resigning, the Governor will now appoint a new Lieutenant Governor, and this could be the key person to watch in the unfolding open Governor’s race.

Furthermore, the state’s Chief Financial Officer, Jimmy Patronis (R), won the special congressional primary election to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz in the Panhandle’s 1st District, and he is a lock to clinch the April 1 special election. Since he was running for a different office, Florida election law dictates that an individual must resign his or her current elective position. Patronis has indicated his resignation will occur on March 31. At that point, Gov. DeSantis will appoint a new state CFO.

The Secretary of State is already a gubernatorial appointed position, and Gov. DeSantis chose then-state Rep. Cord Byrd in 2022.

Once the Governor completes the appointment process, he will have chosen every statewide official. This will certainly affect the 2026 statewide elections since all of the incumbents will be DeSantis appointees as opposed to having elected status.

Since Florida has evolved into a strong Republican state in the past few elections, the next GOP gubernatorial nominee will now be rated as a strong favorite as opposed to being cast in a toss-up race.

Florida voter registration largely tells the story. At the time of the 2020 election, Democrats had a partisan voter registration edge over Republicans of 106,986 individuals according to the Florida Secretary of State’s official voter registration statistical report. The most current figures, released Jan. 10, 2025, finds not only Republicans having more party members, but they hold an astonishing 1,156,082 individual advantage over the Florida Democrats. Thus, we have seen a net Republican registration gain of 1,263,068 persons in just the preceding four years.

While Gov. DeSantis will leave his position at the beginning of 2027, his influence over who will take his place could now become even greater thanks to all of the statewide public officials coming via his appointments.