Category Archives: House

Sen. Casey Concedes; Independent Osborn May Return in Nebraska; Gaetz, Waltz Replacement Contenders Making Moves

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 22, 2024

Senate

Pennsylvania Republican David McCormick

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Concedes, McCormick In — The Senate races are now complete.

After the Pennsylvania State Supreme Court disallowed the admission of ballots that did not meet legal standards and earlier in the week Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) publicly backed the court’s decision, three-term Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) called a halt to the recount that had already begun. Late last week, he conceded the Senate race to Republican businessman David McCormick.

With the high court rulings and getting little support from his party leaders, continuing the recount became futile because it was unlikely that election officials and/or ballot counting machines around the state would have made approximately 17,000 individual counting mistakes. At the beginning of the recount process, the McCormick lead stood at 16,404 votes.

While Republicans are celebrating a victory that now officially takes them to 53 seats in the Senate, their margin could easily have been much higher. While recent political trends — and particularly so in the last two national elections — have found the Senate races following that of the presidential contest in virtually every state, the 2024 vote proved slightly different.

In this election cycle, the Republicans officially gained four seats, converting the West Virginia open seat and defeating Democratic incumbents Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown from Ohio, and Casey. Yet, their take could have been much greater.

President-Elect Trump won four other battleground states, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin that also could have elected a Republican senator. The party’s candidates, however, were a cumulative 5.3 percentage points short in those four states.

There will be a great deal of research done once numbers become final and published as to why these states did not follow the same pattern as the others. A total of 33 states hosted the 34 Senate elections (Nebraska had two Senate seats on the ballot because of a special election) and only the aforementioned quartet failed to follow the partisan pattern.

Thus, in the 31 states that President-Elect Donald Trump carried, 18 hosted Senate races and the Republican candidate won 14. Vice President Harris carried 19 states, and 15 held Senate races. The Democratic Senate candidate won in all 15 of those campaigns.

The 2024 pattern was not discovered on election night. Rather, pollsters had projected the situation for months. If anything, the Republican candidates closed the races better than expected.

Throughout virtually the entire election cycle, the Republican Senate candidates were running behind Trump in the battleground states. Where Trump would have a small lead in a particular domain, the GOP Senate candidate was typically polling eight to 10 points behind his standing.

The pattern was not confined to states that more often or not in recent elections vote Democratic such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Such was the case even in stronger Republican states and places where Trump had a major lead like Montana and Ohio. The GOP Senate candidate still won but fell considerably behind Trump’s position.

Part of the Republicans’ problem in many Senate situations was Democratic incumbency. While Tester, Brown, and now Casey went down to defeat, incumbency was certainly a positive dynamic for Sens. Jacky Rosen in Nevada and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin. Perhaps the biggest factor here was money. Both Rosen and Baldwin heavily outspent their Republican opponents that, especially in the Nevada race, allowed the incumbent to develop an early and mid-campaign lead that became very difficult to overcome even with a strong close.

The Arizona situation was different. In an open seat with Trump running six points ahead, pulling the Senate candidate across the finish line would have been expected. Here, the Republicans had a candidate with a severe negative image. While obtaining 49.6 percent in the 2022 governor’s race, former news anchor Kari Lake turned what should have been a catapulting finish into a net negative with her extended claims (even to this day) of voter fraud.

While she may have been taken seriously at the outset, carrying on through a losing a series of court decisions created a negative impression of her, thus badly hurting her in the subsequent election.

In Michigan, we saw a different situation. There, both parties fielded strong candidates in the person of Rep. Elissa Slotkin (R-Lansing) and former Congressman Mike Rogers. The end result was a virtual tie, and while Trump barely won Michigan, Rogers barely lost. Again, with Slotkin having a big financial advantage in the campaign, funding could have been the difference.

In the coming weeks, we will get a better picture of what happened in these potentially defining races that voted opposite for Senate as compared with their presidential selection. Were these races decided individually or are they potentially part of an emerging ticket-splitting trend? If so, 2024 may be laying the groundwork to return to a period where splitting one’s partisan vote choices is not such a foreign occurrence.

House

FL-1: Changing Situation — Now that ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) has withdrawn from consideration for Attorney General, there is some chance he could return to take the congressional seat in the next term because he was duly elected in November. Though he stated that he “intends” not to take the oath of office in the new Congress, his resignation only applies to the current Congress. Therefore, he could still return to the House.

Though speculation will be running rampant about what may happen in this congressional seat, several candidates are making moves to enter what they believe will be a special election. The three main candidates are state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R) and state Reps. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The battle to succeed Gaetz, if one comes to fruition, will be decided in the Republican primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which is the safest Republican seat in the Sunshine State.

FL-6: Rep. Waltz District Director to File for Special Election — Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) has been announced as President-Elect Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor. Since his position does not require Senate confirmation, Waltz can assume his duties as soon as Trump is sworn into office. At that point, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) can call a special election to replace Waltz who will resign his seat before assuming his new position.

Late last week, Rep. Waltz’s District Director, retired Army Brigadier Gen. Ernie Audino, announced that he will compete in the special election. We can expect a crowded GOP primary field for the safe Republican seat which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+28.

California Uncalled Races:
Into the Hundreds not Thousands

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 21, 2024

Vote Margins

U.S. Capitol Building

The vote margins in the two uncalled California House races have now dropped from the thousands into the hundreds, and though the counting is not over under the state’s laborious tabulation process, the chances of these races going final anytime soon are remote. In what are sure to be two razor-thin finishes, moving to a recount round is a virtual certainty.

In the state’s 13th District, with a reported 95 percent of the vote counted, Rep. John Duarte’s (R-Modesto) lead over former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) has dropped to just 227 votes. In Orange County’s 45th CD, incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel (R) has fallen behind her challenger, attorney Derek Tran (D), by 312 votes, also with a reported 95 percent of the vote counted.

If the tabulation percentages are correct, then an estimated 10,000 votes remain in CA-13 and approximately 17,000 in CA-45. If the trends break the way the districts have in the current tabulation, Rep. Duarte may win by just over 200 votes and Rep. Steel may lose by approximately 300 votes. There is no guarantee either of these contests will evolve as these calculations suggest, but the end result in both will be razor thin.

What is at stake is greater than the two House seats. Assuming Alaska Republican Nick Begich III survives the Ranked Choice Voting round in the state’s at-large seat, a result that will likely be known today, the House party division will drop to 219R – 215D –1V should the Democrats eventually take both uncalled California congressional seats. This count includes the vacant FL-1 seat of former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola).

President-Elect Donald Trump has already announced that he will nominate three House members, Gaetz plus Reps. Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY), to Administration positions. Waltz does not need Senate confirmation as National Security Advisor, so it is assumed he will resign from his House seat on or around the date Trump is sworn into office, Jan. 20, 2025. Stefanik will resign after she is confirmed to her position as US Ambassador to the United Nations.

All of these actions will eventually take the House Republican majority margin down to 217-215 with three vacancies. Special elections will then be called to fill the vacant seats. It is clear that Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis will schedule the two Sunshine State elections as quickly as possible, but such may not be the case in New York.

Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has some legal leeway as to when she must schedule the special election for a vacant congressional seat. It’s conceivable she may be able to wait several months and place the special congressional election on the state elections ballot next autumn. In the past, she has moved quickly to schedule the two special congressional elections since she became governor, but those were for seats that Democrats were favored to win.

The political picture is different considering this particular vacancy (the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-21 as R+17) since it will have an effect upon the House majority status and benefit the Republicans. Therefore, Gov. Hochul may respond differently.

The projected party division total suggests that two other races headed for recounts will hold for the involved incumbents, Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) and Marcy Kaptur (D-OH).

As the House race counting finally winds down, it is clear that if the Republicans can hold the majority, it will come down to just a few votes nationally.

Pennsylvania Recount Controversy Intensifies; House Recount Status in Iowa, Ohio; Rep. Sherrill Announces for Governor in New Jersey

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024

Senate

David McCormick (R)

Pennsylvania: Recount Controversy Intensifies — The Pennsylvania Senate race continues to generate controversy. Democratic officials in Bucks, Center, Delaware, and Philadelphia counties are openly defying a state Supreme Court order to not count ballots that fail to have proper documentation. Republicans have already filed 12 lawsuits in localities to stop the practice of adding what the state Supreme Court has already reaffirmed are illegal ballots. The recount is getting underway and different news outlets are reporting different vote spreads. The range for Republican David McCormick over Democrat Sen. Bob Casey Jr. stretches from an approximate 29,000-plus to 17,000-plus votes.

In the end, the Senate itself will be the final arbiter over seating new senators. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), citing the aforementioned allowance of the already defined illegal ballots, is calling upon the senators to reject seating Casey should the recount push him to the forefront. Expect the controversy to drag on at least until the Thanksgiving holiday.

House

IA-1: Another Pending Recount — Eastern Iowa election officials are dealing with congressional candidate Christina Bohannan’s (D) request for a recount of the Iowa 1st District results that find Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) projected as an 801-vote winner. It is unlikely that a recount will drastically change such a margin, but the congresswoman is no stranger to close elections resulting in recounts. She first won the seat in 2020 with a six-vote margin. The Iowa election certification deadline is Dec. 2, so we will likely see final numbers at that time.

OH-9: Recount Possible — Election officials in the eight counties that comprise Ohio’s 9th Congressional District anchored in the city of Toledo continue to determine which provisional and remaining absentee ballots will be added to the aggregate count. The county officials are supposed to present final numbers by today, Wednesday, Nov. 20. If the official candidate totals are within a half-percent, Ohio’s secretary of state will conduct a recount.

The unofficial totals find Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) leading state Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova Township) by 1,193 votes from a total of 366,062 ballots cast. The current margin is just 0.3 percent, which would be within the range of a mandated recount. Rep. Kaptur has already declared victory.

Governor

New Jersey: Rep. Sherrill Announces 2025 Candidacy — As she promised she would do after the 2024 general election, Garden State Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) officially announced her gubernatorial candidacy in the New Jersey open 2025 campaign.

Already in the Democratic primary are Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Stephen Fulop, Montclair Mayor Stephen Spiller, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. Since the New Jersey elections are held in the odd-numbered years, neither House member will have to risk his or her seat to run for governor.

For the Republicans, 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli, who held Gov. Phil Murphy (D) to a close 51-48 percent victory is running again as is state Sen. John Bramnick (R-Plainfield), ex-state Sen. Ed Durr, and radio talk show host Bill Spadea.

Replacing Rubio; Vance Replacement Considerations in Ohio; Two California House Seats Called

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024

Senate

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R)

Florida: Speculation About Rubio Replacement — Rumors are being quashed that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) would either appoint himself or his wife, Casey DeSantis, to replace Sen. Marco Rubio (R) when he resigns to become Secretary of State.

With President-Elect Donald Trump already selecting three US House members for appointments, including Florida Congressman Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) as National Security Advisor as well as Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) as the nation’s next Attorney General, none of the state’s 19 other Republican House members will be considered for the Senate appointment since the new House majority is expected to be small. Rather, topping the list of potential appointees appear to be Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Attorney General Ashley Moody, and former Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva. Gaetz immediately announced his resignation from the House after President-Elect Donald Trump’s controversial announcement that he has appointed Gaetz as AG. With another House member being chosen for the new Administration, and the majority not yet being completely cemented, the Republicans may be flirting with political “gimbal lock” that could potentially lead to the Democrats gaining control of the body. Much more to come on this developing situation.

Gov. DeSantis will fill the vacancy when Sen. Rubio resigns after the latter’s confirmation as Secretary of State. The new senator will then run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Sen. Rubio was re-elected to a third term in 2022.

Ohio: Ramaswamy Out of Senate Consideration — Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who President-Elect Trump appointed along with Elon Musk to head a new official government efficiency operation — known as DOGE, or the Department of Government Efficiency — confirmed that he is no longer under consideration to replace Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance in the US Senate.

Vance will resign from the Senate at some point before being sworn in as vice president on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 2025. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then appoint a replacement to serve the balance of the current term. Since Vance was elected in 2022, the new appointed senator will run to complete the current term in 2026, and then again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle.

House

CA-27: Democrat Whitesides Unseats Rep. Garcia — Ex-Virgin Atlantic CEO George Whitesides has defeated three-term Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) by a 51.3 – 48.7 percent margin in the state’s 27th District, which is fully contained in northern Los Angeles County. The projection was made Tuesday, and Rep. Garcia conceded the election.

The result is not particularly surprising. The California Citizens Redistricting Commission members increased the Democratic base in this district making it a D+8 as opposed to a D+5 under the previous map. The ratings are taken from the FiveThirtyEight data organization that profiles all 435 US House seats. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians ranked CA-27 as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.

Rep. Garcia first won a differently configured district, numbered CA-25, in a 2020 special election. He was re-elected in the former 25th later that year, and then won again in new District 27 two years ago. In all three previous elections, Garcia defeated former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D).

CA-47: Dems Hold Open Seat — Democratic state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) recorded a come-from-behind victory over former state assemblyman and 2022 congressional general election finalist Scott Baugh (R) in California’s open 47th District with a 50.9 – 49.1 percent victory margin according to a projection made Tuesday. Republicans had hopes of converting this seat from the Democratic column, but the presidential election year turnout model in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+6 was too much for Baugh to overcome.

The Min victory means only five uncalled races remain, four of which lie in California. The current House count now stands at 219R – 211D. The 47th District was open because incumbent Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked the seat to run unsuccessfully for the US Senate.

An Even Newer Senator
Will Emerge Post-Election

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024

Senate

Vice President-Elect and current Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance.

Even with 2024 Senate elections now projected as final, there will be another seat to fill soon.

Currently, with the Arizona race now called for Phoenix Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego (Pennsylvania may still go to a recount if the final margin falls to within half a percentage point), more Senate political intrigue will soon take center stage in the Buckeye State.

Because Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance has been elected vice president, an opening will occur once he resigns his current position prior to assuming his new national VP post. That means that Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will choose Sen. Vance’s replacement, and his decision may not only affect the Senate.

Ohio Gov. DeWine is serving his final two years as governor. When he first ran for his current post in 2018 a highly competitive Republican primary was forming with he, then-Secretary of State Jon Husted, and then-Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor. DeWine, the Ohio attorney general at the time after previously serving in the US Senate — as lieutenant governor, in the US House, and the state Senate — was favored by most to win the primary, but the outcome was not certain.

Just before the filing deadline, Husted approached the attorney general and offered to drop out of the governor’s race if DeWine would support him for lieutenant governor. In Ohio, the governor and lieutenant governor are individually elected. DeWine accepted and the two then ran successfully as a team.

Now we approach the beginning of the 2026 election cycle. Gov. DeWine cannot succeed himself and both Lt. Gov. Husted and Attorney General Dave Yost (R) have already announced their intentions to run for the state’s top position. Therefore, the new Senate appointment could be a very attractive option for one of the two. The other then benefits by having an easier run through the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Should such a deal emerge, and this assumes the governor doesn’t have other ideas for a replacement choice, a difficult intra-party battle could once again be avoided through a joint agreement.

One place the governor surely will not turn is to fill the Senate opening is the Ohio congressional delegation. With the Republican US House majority again becoming razor thin, the party leadership may not be able to relinquish a vote during the vacancy period associated with a special election to replace the chosen Ohio member. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the governor will choose a sitting House member as his appointed senator.

In terms of the Senate, the timing of the appointment will be interesting. With Republican Bernie Moreno unseating veteran Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) last Tuesday and Vance leaving the Senate, freshman Moreno will likely become Ohio’s senior senator upon being sworn into office.

Yet, the timing of the resignation and appointment could well decide whether Moreno or the appointed lawmaker is the senior senator. Should Vance resign before the Senate convenes on Jan. 3, 2025 and DeWine makes a quick appointment, Moreno and the Senate-designee would be sworn in together.

Should Sen. Vance resign after the Senate is sworn in — he will become vice president on Jan. 20, 2025 — Moreno would become senior senator upon taking office with the appointed senator taking office a few days later.

With the victories of Moreno and Republican senators-elect Tim Sheehy (MT), David McCormick (PA), and Jim Justice (WV), the GOP will have 52 senators plus the Vance vacancy. It is likely they will want to hit the ground running with a new Majority Leader since current Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is stepping down from his post. Therefore, having an additional vote could be important if the Senate wants to consider major legislation early in the new Congress, so DeWine will be encouraged to make a quick appointment.

Appointing a Senate replacement for Vice President-Elect Vance apparently features many facets. Therefore, not only the individual chosen, but also the timing of the appointment would affect not only the personnel hierarchy but early significant legislation, as well.

House Clinched For Now

Current US House Balance of Power

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024

House

Clinched: For Now — The projected US House victories of Arizona Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) and California Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona), along with GOP challenger Gabe Evans defeating Colorado Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thurston) has clinched 219 Republican seats in the new House of Representatives, one more than the bare majority. The margin, however, will have to be greater than two seats if the Republicans are to govern.

Rep. Ciscomani defeated former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) by what looks to be a similar margin in the 2022 election outcome between the two. Rep. Calvert successfully secured a 17th term last night, defeating the man he beat in the previous election, former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D). Evans, a Colorado state representative, Army veteran and former police officer, claims the politically marginal 8th District by just under one percentage point in a northern Centennial State seat that was designed to produce close elections.

With President-Elect Donald Trump announcing that he will appoint Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Mike Waltz (R-FL) as US Ambassador to the United Nations and National Security Advisor, respectively, the House Republican margin will be reduced by two seats after the designated members resign and before the respective governors schedule and implement a special election to replace the departing members.

As mentioned, Republicans have 219 called seats as compared to the Democrats’ 209. Currently, there are seven uncalled races, six of which lie in California. The other outstanding House contest is in Alaska where it is likely a Ranked Choice Voting round will be instituted since neither candidate has yet to exceed the 50 percent mark. Republican Mark Begich III leads Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) by 10,133 votes with an estimated 26 percent of the vote still uncounted. Begich commands 49.6 percent of the vote opposite Rep. Peltola’s 45.6 percent.

The seven uncalled races feature the Alaska at-large district and the races of Golden State Reps. Josh Harder (D-Truckee/ Stockton) in District 9; John Duarte (R-Modesto-13); Jim Costa (D-Fresno-21); Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita-27); Michelle Steel (R-Orange County; 45), and the open Orange County 47th CD.

All incumbents lead in the current counting with the exception of Rep. Garcia, who trails Democratic challenger George Whitesides by 4,730 votes with all but eight percent of the vote now tabulated, and Democratic Rep. Peltola as described above. In the open seat, Democratic state Sen. Dave Min runs ahead of Republican Scott Baugh by 2,713 votes with 86 percent counted. The 47th is open because Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked her position to run unsuccessfully for the US Senate earlier in the year.

In the remaining seven uncalled seats, Democrats lead in four and Republicans hold the advantage in three. Should the GOP hold onto the seats where they enjoy a current advantage, meaning California incumbents Duarte and Steel, and Alaska challenger Begich, the House count will rise to 222 Republicans. With the impending Stefanik and Waltz vacancies, the likely best case scenario is the House GOP Conference dropping to 220 until those seats are filled. At this point, however, none of the three Republican leads are secure.

New York Rep. Stefanik’s northern 21st District carries an R+17 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians rank the seat as the 66th most vulnerable district in the current Republican Conference. Rep. Waltz’s 6th District of Florida, which occupies part of the state’s Atlantic coast and houses the cities of Daytona Beach, Palm Coast, and DeLand, is an R+28 seat according to 538, while The Down Ballot group ranks the Waltz CD as the 118th most vulnerable seat in the conference.

Both districts should remain in Republican hands via special election, but we can expect at least a two month period when these seats will be vacant post member resignation.

It also remains to be seen if Trump chooses any more House members for Administration positions. Doing so could endanger his party’s tenuous House majority.

The close margin also limits the Senate appointment prospects for Govs. Mike DeWine (R-OH) and Ron DeSantis (R-FL), because they cannot risk further House seats if they were to choose a congressman. They will be tasked with appointing a replacement for Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance, Ohio’s current junior senator, and for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio should the widely reported stories prove true that Donald Trump will appoint him to be his secretary of state.

Final States Called for 2024; Gallego Wins Arizona; Five California Races Called; NE-2, OR-5 Winners

2024 Final Election Results / Click here for interactive map: CNN.com

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 11, 2024

National Vote

Final States Called: Presidential Map Complete — The final presidential map appears to be in the books with projections recorded for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. President-Elect Donald Trump clinched 312 electoral votes versus Vice President Kamala Harris’s 266 tally.

Trump won all seven battleground states, with North Carolina voting for him in all three of his elections. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin again voted for Trump after doing so in 2016 but choosing President Joe Biden in 2020. Nevada, which voted Democratic in both 2016 and 2020, switched to Trump in this election year.

In the two previous elections, the winning candidate, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, received 306 electoral votes. For the first time, it appears Trump will also win the national popular vote. Though he won the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton scored a popular vote victory.

Senate

Arizona: Rep. Gallego Wins — In what was predicted to be an easier road for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to replace retiring Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), the Grand Canyon State Senate race was finally projected over the weekend in the Democratic representative’s favor. With 89 percent of the Arizona vote tallied, Rep. Gallego tallies 49.7 percent support while his opponent, Republican former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake recorded a better than expected 48.2 percent. The raw number difference at this point in the counting is 44,882 votes.

With Republican victories over Senate Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and winning the open Democratic seat in West Virginia, the Republicans will lead the new Senate with a 53-47 majority.

House

California: Five CA Races Called, Seven More Outstanding — As we will remember, California is the state that requires the longest period to count their votes. Over the weekend, five Golden State congressional races were called. Included in the list of official winners are Reps. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove/Sacramento), David Valadao (R-Hanford), Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/Ventura), Jay Takano (D-Riverside), and Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano).

The California seats will go a long way toward determining a House majority. Still uncalled are the races for Reps. Josh Harder (D-Truckee/Stockton), John Duarte (R-Modesto), Jim Costa (D-Fresno), Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita), Ken Calvert (R-Corona), and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County). Also uncalled is Orange County’s open 47th District. All of these incumbents with the exception of Rep. Garcia lead in the counting process. The outstanding vote percentage range stretches from 14-38 percent.

A total of 10 races remain uncalled and they will determine the House majority. Of the 10, the Republican candidate leads in six races. To claim a bare 218-217 majority, the Republicans need win only two of the 10 uncalled contests.

NE-2: Rep. Bacon Declared a Winner — While the election night counting trended against veteran Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), the political overtime tally yielded the opposite result and the congressman has unofficially been re-elected to a fifth term. With 95 percent of the vote now counted, Bacon clinched victory with 51.2 percent support as compared to state Sen. Tony Vargas’ (D-Omaha) 48.8 percent. The percentages reveal a Bacon margin of 7,150 votes from the 307,342 counted ballots.

OR-5: Rep. Chavez-DeRemer (R) Unseated — Though just a few incumbents were defeated in the 2024 election, another loss was projected over the weekend. Oregon freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) failed in her campaign against state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) who won a plurality vote victory. With 90 percent of the vote counted, Bynum clinched the election with a 47.8 to 45.0 percent margin, or a vote spread of 10,454 votes from the 372,162 counted ballots.

In addition to Rep. Chavez-DeRemer, the losing incumbents were New York Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), Mark Molinaro (R-Red Hook), and Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse), along with Pennsylvanians Susan Wild (D-Allentown) and Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton).