Category Archives: House

Georgia, Mississippi Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 11, 2026

GA-14 Special Election

GA-14 lies in the northwest corner of Georgia. To see an interactive version of this map, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App.

The special election to replace resigned Rep. Margorie Taylor Greene (R) ended as expected with the top two finishers advancing to an April 7 runoff election from the field of 17 candidates. All contenders were placed on the same ballot irrespective of political party affiliation. Since no one received majority support, advancing to a runoff election is required under Georgia election procedure.

Democratic retired Army Gen. Shawn Harris, who spent over $4 million in his campaign on top of spending more than $3.5 million against Rep. Greene in the 2024 election cycle, finished first but with only 37.3 percent of the vote. Local district attorney Clay Fuller, who had President Trump’s endorsement, finished a close second with 34.9 percent, or 2,853 votes behind Gen. Harris.

Though last night’s Democratic share is better than 14th District historical trends suggest (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 69.2R – 28.9D; Trump ’24: 68.1 – 31.3 percent; Greene ’24: 64.3 – 35.6 percent), the Shawn Harris first-place finish should not be considered so unusual.

Of the 17 candidates on the ballot, only three were Democrats. Considering the Harris campaign’s huge spending figure and not splitting the Democratic vote base among a large field, it was clear that the leading Democrat would at least qualify for the runoff if not finish first. A dozen Republicans were competing for the largest share of the Republican base. Adding the aggregate Republican versus Democrat votes, the GOP combined candidates received 60 percent of the turnout.

Total voter participation exceeded 115,000, which is very strong for a special congressional primary election. In terms of county vote share, a Republican candidate won six of the district’s ten counties while Gen. Harris claimed four. The latter man’s largest total (a 49 percent vote share) occurred in Cobb County, the district’s second largest population center. The strongest Republican vote share was in Murray County where Fuller recorded 48 percent.

Mississippi

No particular surprises from last night’s Mississippi primary results, as both the Republican and Democratic primaries finished as expected.

In the Senate race, incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), as predicted, easily captured renomination with 81 percent of the GOP vote. Also as forecast, she will now face Lowndes County District Attorney Scott Colom who was an easy winner on the Democratic side. Colom scored a 73-18-8 percent victory over two minor opponents to claim the party nomination.

Sen. Hyde-Smith will now be a heavy favorite in the general election. In terms of voter turnout, approximately 9,000 more Republicans than Democrats voted in the statewide intra-party elections.

Turning to the House, Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/Tupelo) and Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson) were unopposed for renomination.

In the 1st District, Rep. Kelly will now face the new Democratic nominee, attorney Cliff Johnson who defeated state Rep. Kelvin Buck (D-Holly Springs) with 64 percent of the vote. In a district with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean of 63.9R – 35.0D (Trump: ’24: 67.9 – 30.8 percent; Kelly ’24: 69.8 – 30.2 percent), the Congressman becomes a prohibitive favorite in his quest to secure a seventh term.

Agribusinessman and investor Michael Chiaradio was also unopposed in the Democratic primary. Like Rep. Kelly, Congressman Guest must be rated as the clear favorite to secure the general election. The DRA partisan lean for District 3 is 60.7R – 38.3D (Trump ’24: 64.1 – 34.9 percent; Guest ’24: 100 percent).

The 2nd District Democratic primary had drawn some national attention as former congressional staffer Evan Turnage returned to Mississippi and was challenging veteran Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton). Also as predicted, Rep. Thompson was an easy winner, recording an 86-13 percent landslide victory.

The 2nd District is the state’s lone Democratic CD and has a strong partisan voter history. The DRA partisan lean here is 63.8D – 35.5R (Harris ’24: 59.7 – 39.3 percent; Thompson ’24: 62.0 – 38.0 percent). Like Mississippi’s three other congressional incumbents, Rep. Thompson is a lock to win again in November.

Fourth District incumbent Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) was also a big winner in his Republican primary. The Congressman topped former congressional aide Sawyer Walters in a landslide 84-16 percent vote count. He will have little trouble overcoming the new Democratic nominee, state Rep. Jeffrey Hulum (D-Gulfport) who recorded a 57 percent win over two intra-party contenders.

The 4th District DRA partisan lean is 67.0R – 31.7D (Trump ’24: 70.7 – 28.2 percent; Ezell ’24: 74.0 – 26.0 percent). Obviously, this seat is the strongest Republican congressional district in one of the party’s most loyal states.

Mississippi Primary &
Georgia Special Election Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Primary season continues today in Mississippi as candidates are vying for party nominations in the US Senate campaign and all four US House districts. The special jungle primary to replace resigned Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) is also scheduled for today.

Mississippi

Mississippi state flag

Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is on the ballot for a second full term, and she is expected to easily win renomination tonight over physician Sarah Adlakha. Mississippi is a runoff state, but the Senator will certainly eclipse the 50 percent-plus-one vote threshold to secure renomination.

Hyde-Smith was initially appointed to the Senate in 2018 after then-Sen. Thad Cochran (R) resigned due to health issues. She defeated former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Congressman Mike Espy in the 2018 special election, and then again in the 2020 regular election for a full term.

Tonight, Lowndes County District Attorney and former municipal judge Scott Colom is expected to win the Democratic primary, and he too should avoid being forced into a runoff election. He faces two minor Democratic opponents. Sen. Hyde-Smith will be a clear favorite in the general election.

In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/ Tupelo) is unopposed for renomination. Two Democrats, ex-state Rep. Kelvin Buck and attorney Cliff Johnson are competing for their party nomination. Since only two contenders are on the ballot, one of them will win tonight. MS-1 is a heavily Republican district, so Rep. Kelly is a prohibitive favorite in November.

The 2nd District Democratic primary is likely to attract the most electoral attention tonight. Here, veteran Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton) seeks renomination to an 18th term from the Mississippi Delta CD. His opponent is former congressional aide Evan Turnage, who returns to his home district in one of about a dozen attempts around the country for a younger Democrat attempting to unseat a veteran House member in the party primary. Turnage is a credible candidate, but Rep. Thompson should easily win renomination tonight and sail through another general election.

The 3rd District race is set. Neither Rep. Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), on the ballot seeking a fifth term, nor Democrat Michael Chiaradio have primary opposition tonight. MS-3 is also a safe Republican seat, so Rep. Guest will cruise to re-election in November.

Turning to the gulf coast 4th District, we see competition in both party primaries. Rep. Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) is running for a third term and faces only former congressional aide Sawyer Walters in the GOP primary.

Three Democrats are vying for the opportunity of challenging Rep. Ezell in the general election: state Rep. Jeffrey Hulum (D-Gulfport), business consultant Ryan Grover, and military veteran Paul Blackman comprise the party’s candidate field. Rep. Hulum will be favored to win outright tonight, but Rep. Ezell should have little trouble holding the seat in the November general election.

GA-14

To see an interactive map of the Georgia Congressional Districts and GA-14, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App.

The initial election to replace Rep. Taylor Greene is being held today. A total of 15 Republicans are on the ballot along with three Democrats, a Libertarian Party member and an Independent. If one of the candidates receives an absolute majority, the individual is elected outright. If no one reaches the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers irrespective of political party affiliation will advance to an April 7 runoff election.

The eventual special election winner will then serve the balance of the current term. Candidate filing has already closed for the regular term, so it is possible we could see a competitive regular election primary on the Republican side in May regardless of how the special concludes.

For the Democrats, the question to be answered tonight is whether their strongest candidate, retired Army General Shawn Harris, qualifies for the runoff or if two Republicans will advance. The GOP dominates this district, the safest Republican seat in Georgia, but with the vote split among so many party candidates, it will be possible for Gen. Harris to coalesce most of the Democratic vote and secure a runoff position. Doing so might allow him to even finish first.

Gen. Harris has raised and spent $4 million in this race. Running against Rep. Greene in 2024 (he spent $3.5 million but received only 36 percent of the vote), Gen. Harris has become a vacuum for Democratic and left of center campaign dollars. Those contributions have continued for the special election, so we will see what effect the large expenditures will have upon the final vote.

Regardless of what happens tonight, Gen. Harris will return for the regular election. He is unopposed for the party nomination later this year.

For the Republicans, the leading candidates appear to be Lookout Mountain Judicial Circuit District Attorney Clay Fuller who has President Trump’s endorsement. Other contenders sure to attract significant votes are former Paulding County Commissioner Brian Stover, state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton), and Dalton City Councilman Nicky Lama.

First Primaries

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Voting occurred in the first three primary states yesterday, Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas. A number of races were decided last night and several are heading to runoffs. Some primary winners are already preparing for tough general election campaigns, while others are celebrating victories tantamount to winning a November electoral contest.

Texas

A huge primary night was held in the Lone Star State, and much more will be written about these races in the days and weeks to come.

In the all-important US Senate race, as expected, Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff election. Though votes remain outstanding, a runoff has clearly been projected. Somewhat surprising to many political observers, Sen. Cornyn ran in first place all evening, and carries a one-point margin over AG Paxton from last night’s tabulations. Both will now advance into the late May runoff election by virtue of both scoring in the low 40s percentile range.

For the Democrats, late last night state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) was declared the victor over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) by just about 160,000 votes with ballots still to count. The Republican runoff winner will now face Talarico in the November election in what promises to be perhaps the most competitive Texas Senate race we will have seen this century.

A total of 20 US House races in Texas saw significant primary action. Below is a quick recap:

Incumbents Losing or Trailing

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) went down to a crushing defeat at the hands of state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) even though the Congressman held a huge financial advantage. The vote tally isn’t yet final, but the margin at this writing is a whopping 57-40 percent in the challenger’s favor. Toth will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat in the general election.

Two other House members trail and could lose their seats. Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is 11 percentage points behind former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred (D), but many ballots remain outstanding because of alleged voting irregularities in Dallas County and a delay in closing the polling places. It is possible that Allred could still win the nomination or be forced into a runoff with Rep. Johnson.

Veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston), who many election analysts predicted to lose, may not. He is locked in a tight battle that still could go either way. Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Houston) leads by just 654 votes, but with almost one-third of the ballots still uncounted. Additionally, both men are in the high 40s percentile, meaning neither has reached the majority threshold. Therefore, both could still advance to a May 26 runoff election.

Scandal-tainted Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) trails 2024 candidate Brandon Herrera, but both are only in the low 40s percentile range. Therefore, we can expect the two men being forced into another runoff. Two years ago, Rep. Gonzales was renominated over Herrera by only a 354-vote margin in the runoff election.

Outright Winners

The following candidates were declared outright winners last night in contested races and will advance to the general election as their party’s nominee:

In District 8, former America First Policy Institute attorney Jessica Steinmann romped to an easy 68 percent victory in the open Republican primary, which has likely punched her ticket into Congress. The 8th CD is solidly Republican.

In the 10th CD, Republican Chris Gober, who ran the Super PAC operation for Elon Musk, appears to have won the party nomination outright, though all ballots have not yet been tabulated. Assuming he has won the nomination, he will replace retiring Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) after winning the general election.

Turning to the San Antonio-anchored 21st District, retired Major League Baseball player Mark Teixeira recorded a 61 percent victory against 11 opponents. He is now a lock to succeed Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), who has advanced into an Attorney General’s race runoff against state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston).

Looking at South Texas District 28, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) landed a 58 percent victory and will now defend his seat in November against Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina who easily won the Republican nomination with almost 75 percent of the party vote.

Also, on the Democratic side, Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) turned back a primary challenge from former state Rep. and ex-Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson with a 58 percent total.

In the seat that Rep. Crockett risked to run for the Senate, prominent Dallas mega church pastor Frederick Haynes easily won the Democratic nomination with 74 percent of the vote. This primary win punches his ticket to Washington in the fall.

Facing nine Republican primary opponents, veteran Rep. John Carter (R-Round Rock) won renomination for a 13th term with just under 60 percent of the vote.

In the Brownsville-anchored 34th District, attorney Eric Flores defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores and six other Republican opponents to claim the party nomination with about a 57 percent vote total. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) was also renominated last night but with a disappointing 62.7 percent total. Expect a tough general election to occur in a district that became more Republican under the new redistricting map.

Two more Republicans, Jace Yarbrough in open District 32 and Jon Bonck in open District 38 are knocking on the door of securing majority support. Both will be prohibitive favorites in the general election if they can secure majority support from last night’s primary.

Run-offs

Texas races where no candidate received majority support, thus necessitating a May 26 runoff election, will occur in new open District 9 (Alexandra Mealer vs. state Rep. Briscoe Cain), open District 19 (agribusinessman Tom Sell and an opponent to be decided in a close battle for second place), and open CD 35 (State Rep. John Lujan-R) and businessman Chris De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen).

Much will be written about these races to recap the primary and cover the runoff elections, but the most extraordinary occurrence last night was the Texas Democrats likely exceeding Republican turnout for the first time in decades.

North Carolina

As expected, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each easily clinched their respective party nominations and will advance to what promises to be one of the premier national US Senate races. Sen. Thom Tillis (R) chose not to seek a third term.

Perhaps as a harbinger of things to come in the general election, Democratic primary turnout was significantly higher than Republicans. In fact, Cooper received over 140,000 more votes than the aggregate GOP total.

In a contest that was predicted to finish close, Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/ Chapel Hill) is in a race that is still undecided, though she has a 1,202-vote lead with a small number of outstanding votes. Her Democratic primary challenge was Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam who received outside support estimated in the seven-figure range.

In the competitive 1st District, 2024 congressional nominee and ex-Pentagon official Laurie Buckhout won a close Republican primary, outlasting Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck by a five percent margin. Buckhout now advances to the general election against Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) in a much more favorable Republican district than where the two battled two years ago. In the 2024 election, Davis was re-elected with less than a two-point re-election margin. NC-1 now becomes a top national Republican conversion opportunity.

Arkansas

Few incumbents were opposed in the Natural State primary. Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) was the only federal official who even had minor opposition. Rep. Hill was easily renominated with 77 percent of the vote. He will face Chris Jones, the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, in this year’s general election.

All in all, a very exciting 2026 first primary night.

CA-1 Special Now Competitive

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, February 26, 2026

House

Former California state Senate President Mike McGuire

Northern California’s 1st District has been at the focal point of California congressional politics for the past eight months, and this week the CD attracts more political attention. A new candidate declared for the 1st District’s special election, and the individual’s decision to run for the short term is at least somewhat head scratching.

It was reported that former state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) announced his special election candidacy. His move brings political risk that need not be undertaken. If McGuire simply remained in the Senate and ran only for the regular term he would be considered a prohibitive favorite, but not so for the special election.

When Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) announced last August that he would convince the legislature to schedule a redistricting referendum to pass a congressional map in order to negate what a new Texas plan might do for Republicans, then-state Senate President McGuire became the central figure in delivering the two-thirds majority in his chamber necessary to schedule the special referendum election and provide support for Newsom’s bold move.

The voters had to approve the irregular redistricting plan because the process was usurping the California Citizens Commission map enacted in 2021. Therefore, both legislative and public approval were required.

Sen. McGuire, ineligible to seek re-election in 2026 because of state term limits, wanted to change the 1st District, which was safely Republican under the Commission map, into a Democratic seat that he could win. Hence, altering the 1st District to McGuire’s liking became the price for passing the mid-decade redistricting referendum legislation.

Instead of a 1st District under the Commission map that read 60.2R – 37.7D and occupied the territory in the northeastern corner of the state that Oregon and Nevada bordered, the new 1st is anchored in Sen. McGuire’s home county of Sonoma and encompasses Democratic territory in the outer Sacramento suburbs. The new 1st CD’s partisan lean is 55.2D – 44.1R.

On Jan. 6, seven-term 1st District US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) suddenly passed away. His death leads to a special election that will be held concurrently with the state’s June 2 statewide primary election.

The first question the special election posed was whether the vote would be held in the 2021 version of the 1st CD or the new version. Because the special election would be for the purpose of filling the term that began in 2025, the 2021 map was determined as the correct venue.

Immediately, state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City), who, like Sen. McGuire is reaching the end of his allotted time in the legislature (in California, members can serve six-two year terms in the Assembly or three four-year Senate terms, or a combination not to exceed a combined 14 years), announced that he would compete in the special election. He has yet to state that he will run later this year in the new Democratic district.

Rather surprisingly, Sen. McGuire announced that he, too, will enter the special election. The move is questionable because the 2021 CD-1 is strongly Republican; therefore, he would be considered the underdog to Gallagher. Sen. McGuire would then turn around and seek election in the new 1st CD, regardless of the special election outcome.

The move adds political risk to McGuire’s personal congressional plan, especially since the special election winner will only serve a few months. Should McGuire lose to Gallagher in the special, the former’s air of invincibility for the new seat might be punctured and he will likely have adjusted some issue positions in his attempt to win in conservative territory that might hurt him when campaigning in the new liberal district.

Thus, his losing might make transitioning into the Democratic 1st District during the regular election more difficult. As a result, the move might give Gallagher or another Republican a better chance against McGuire in the regular election even though they will all compete in what should be a reliably new Democratic district.

Under California special election law, all candidates are placed on the same ballot in jungle primary form. Should a contender receive majority support in the first vote, the individual would be elected and immediately take office. If no one receives 50 percent or above, the top two finishers would advance to a runoff election on Aug. 4.

Candidate filing for the special election will conclude on April 9. Currently, the only other candidate to announce for the seat is non-profit organization consultant Audrey Denney (D).

NC-4: Rep. Foushee on the Precipice

On Jan. 31, 2026, incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee and Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam participated in a MAPAC-hosted and moderated candidate forum. This will give you a sense of each of the candidate’s positions. (Watch on YouTube)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, February 25, 2026

House

Two-term North Carolina Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) is in a major fight as she and her opponent engage in political combat during the final campaign days prior to the March 3 primary.

In 2022, Foushee, then a state Senator, defeated Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam by nine percentage points to win a contested eight-person Democratic primary. Foushee would then go onto record an easy general election win in a 4th Congressional District designed to elect a Democrat. In 2022, the seat was open because veteran Rep. David Price (D) retired from elective politics.

Rep. Foushee had an easy first re-election run in 2024, but this year’s Democratic primary has turned hot. Allam, still a member of the Durham County Commission, returned to challenge Rep. Foushee, and though her own campaign has not been flush with campaign cash, several outside groups are spending a combined $1 million to promote Allam for the purpose of unseating Rep. Foushee.

About half of the independent money comes from a pro-Palestinian group entitled “American Priorities.” In 2022, Foushee received strong backing from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), though so far not to the same degree in this campaign. The American Priorities’ objective is to serve as a counter to AIPAC.

The second major pro-Allam group, according to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, is the “Leaders We Deserve” organization that deposed Democratic National Committee officer David Hogg founded. This group is active, and will be active, in Democratic primaries with the goal of dislodging Democratic incumbents they view as being part of the political establishment. Combined, the organizations give Allam a 3:1 advantage in outside spending.

Some of the funding coming to help Rep. Foushee is from AI and cryptocurrency interests, but they will have to step up their spending in the last week to propel the incumbent closer to an even footing with the challenger in terms of persuasion expenditures.

A major issue that Allam emphasizes is her opposition to the new AI data center being built in the city of Apex. Allam argues that the facility’s planned energy usage will increase rates relating to water and electricity utilities, and the types of permanent jobs created will be relatively few in number and not targeted to the local populace. Rep. Foushee also has voiced some concern over the plant but in the past has enjoyed strong support from AI interests. Therefore, Allam is attempting to create a clear contrast on this particular issue.

The 4th District of North Carolina lies to the west of the capital city of Raleigh, containing Durham and Orange counties and parts of Chatham and Wake counties. The major population centers are the cities of Durham, Chapel Hill, Apex, and Hillsborough.

The seat is safely Democratic with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation of 73.0D – 24.8R, so winning the general election for either woman would not be in doubt. The 4th District has a 44.2 percent minority voting age population (VAP), with the dominant Black minority segment comprising 21.7 percent of the district’s VAP. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the 4th CD with a 71.8 – 26.5 percent margin even though she lost the statewide vote.

The district has changed since the two women faced each other four years ago. Because of the 2024 North Carolina redistricting plan, 37 percent of the 4th District’s territory is different. The city of Apex, previously mentioned as being the host city for the controversial new data center, is part of the added constituency, which is another reason why Allam is making the plant a major campaign issue and a comparison focal point between she and Rep. Foushee.

As many as three Democratic US House incumbents, including Rep. Foushee, are in competitive races that could result in each losing his or her battle for renomination on March 3. The others are Texas Reps. Al Green (D-Houston) and Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch).

Should Foushee and Rep. Green lose next week, the budding activism from some within the Democratic Party who are organizing to elect younger and more aggressive Representatives will get a major national boost. Rep. Johnson, should she lose, would be attributed solely to redistricting.

Texas Incumbents Who Could Lose

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Texas Races

Multiple Republican seats are in jeopardy in the upcoming Texas primary on March 3.

Knocking on the door of the March 3 Texas primary, we see analyses surfacing predicting that more than one Texas congressional incumbent could lose their renomination battles.

The Senate race has attracted a great deal of attention throughout the early part of the 2026 election cycle. Regarding incumbent John Cornyn’s Republican primary status, his fate will not likely be decided on March 3.

The Senator, on the ballot for a fifth term, is virtually assured of being forced into a runoff election likely with Attorney General Ken Paxton. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) is also in the race and making positive strides. It is probable, however, that he will fall short of securing one of the two available runoff ballot positions.

For months, large numbers of polls have shown neither Sen. Cornyn nor AG Paxton coming anywhere near the 50 percent plateau in primary ballot test results. In fact, neither has even seriously approached the 40 percent mark at any time after July. Since then, 30 Texas Senate primary campaign polls have been publicly released.

Typically, when an incumbent is forced into a runoff in those states where securing majority support is necessary to win a party nomination, the challenger prevails in the secondary election because a majority of voters had already forced the incumbent below the required victory vote percentage figure.

A Cornyn-Paxton runoff may be different, however. First, Texas now has a long runoff cycle – from March 4 through May 26 – so much can change in a long campaign duration.

Secondly, Sen. Cornyn enjoys a significant campaign resource advantage as evidenced in that AG Paxton is only moderately advertising at the end of the primary period. He is obviously pooling his lesser resources for the runoff. By holding his money, Paxton indicates that he perceives fundraising will be difficult against Cornyn in a one-on-one situation.

And, finally, Paxton has been scandal-ridden in the past, and those negatives will be wholly revisited in the runoff cycle.

Reports suggest that three US House incumbents could lose their renomination battles with an outside possibility of a fourth.

The new redistricting map has forced incumbents Al Green (D-Houston) and newly elected (Jan. 31 special election) Christian Menefee (D-Houston) into a new 18th District. Though 65 percent of the constituency in the new 18th comes from Green’s 9th CD, the polling overwhelmingly suggests that Rep. Menefee is in prime position to win the Democratic primary and do so without a runoff.

Also on the Democratic side, in Dallas County, freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) saw her 32nd District turned into a Republican seat that now stretches into East Texas. Because the new seat heavily favors Republicans, Rep. Johnson decided to seek re-election in the new 33rd District, after Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) chose to retire.

The move looked promising for Rep. Johnson until former Representative and 2024 Democratic US Senate nominee Colin Allred suddenly decided to end his announced 2026 Senate campaign and instead filed for District 33. Polling suggests that Allred’s strong name identification and resource advantage will send him back to the US House of Representatives and relegate Rep. Johnson’s congressional service to one term.

Clearly the most bizarre race involves three-term Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio); he too is in danger of failing to win renomination. In 2024, Gonzales, not a favorite among the hard right faction within his sprawling 23rd District that stretches from San Antonio to El Paso, was forced into a runoff election with firearms manufacturer Brandon Herrera and he survived by only 354 votes. In the current campaign, not only did Herrera return, but former Congressman Quico Canseco is also in the race.

Rep. Gonzales has been at the forefront of a political storm resulting from a tragic situation where a former aide, Regina Santos-Aviles, was alleged to be in an extramarital affair with Gonzales and then committed suicide by lighting herself on fire. As the campaign draws to conclusion, Santos-Aviles’ husband is coming forward to confirm his wife’s affair with Gonzales and accuses the Congressman of abusing his power.

Though the challengers have little in the way of campaign funding, the negative publicity and the closeness of his 2024 renomination campaign makes Rep. Gonzales highly endangered.

Some point to Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) as being another incumbent on the precipice of defeat. His main opponent is state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) who has a strong conservative following. Rep. Crenshaw dominates the resource phase of the campaign, and though Toth has a support base it is unlikely that he will dethrone the Congressman in this primary battle. With four candidates on the ballot, however, moving to a runoff is possible. This is a race to watch on March 3.

Colorado Joins Redistricting Wars

Colorado Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App interactive map

By Jim Ellis — Monday, February 23, 2026

Redistricting

Yet another state is making a redistricting move, but this one is for the future.

A new organization called Coloradans for a Level Playing Field announced this week that it will attempt to qualify a congressional redistricting ballot proposition for the November 2026 ballot. The proponents will encourage the electorate to enact a new map designed to create the exact opposite effect of their stated name.

The outline of the suggested redistricting map would reduce the Republicans to just one of the state’s eight congressional seats, into a 7D-1R split. Currently, the Colorado delegation is split 4D-4R. If the group organizers are successful in qualifying their initiative and the measure passes, the new map would take effect for the 2028 and 2030 election cycles.

The current Colorado Independent Redistricting Commissions’ congressional panel members constructed the current map in 2021. Some consider the Centennial State redistricting process as a model for other places. Citizens are chosen to create maps in accordance with Colorado redistricting statutes, and when pertinent, federal redistricting law.

Once an assigned panel agrees upon and formally passes a map, the plan is automatically sent to the state Supreme Court for approval. Adding the court to the formal procedure has resulted in no filed lawsuits against any of the commission maps because Colorado’s ultimate redistricting authority declared the legality of the plan(s) at the outset.

The Colorado system also features a different group of citizens being chosen to draw individual maps, meaning the plans for Congress, state Senate, state House, and any other body that elects its members through districts.

The fledgling Level Playing Field organization, backed financially by Democratic Party sources, is floating four different proposals, and the leaders say they will soon formulate their final strategy and submit one map to the Secretary of State. Once the proposed ballot language is approved, the group then must recruit 124,238 valid registered voter signatures to qualify the referendum.

The other alternative for approving a proposed referendum is through the legislature and obtaining a required two-thirds votes for passage in each chamber. Democrats, however, are slightly below having a two-thirds majority in both houses, meaning their chances of prevailing at the state capitol are less than favorable.

The released map proposal, if adopted as publicized, would change three Republican districts, those of Reps. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction), Jeff Crank (R-Colorado Springs), and Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton) from safely Republican or toss-up seats (the latter in Rep. Evans’ case), into likely Democratic districts.

Ironically, the only Republican member that the Democrat-funded map drawers would concede to a GOP member is the state’s eastern 4th District of Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), likely the Level Playing Field leadership’s least favorite incumbent.

Under the proposal most likely to surface as the final map, Rep. Hurd’s district would transform from a 52.6R – 43.3D district according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians into a western Colorado CD that would feature a virtually opposite 51.1D – 46.2R split. The change adds Democrats from Rep. Joe Neguse’s (D-Lafayette) 2nd District that would bring the new 3rd geographically closer to the outer Denver suburbs.

Rep. Crank’s 5th CD would move from a 56.1R – 38.9D partisan lean to one that yields a 52.2D – 45.0R split. The move here would also drive the Colorado Springs-anchored district much closer to Denver, taking Democrats mostly from Rep. Brittany Pettersen’s (D-Lakewood) 7th CD.

Finally, involving perhaps the most politically marginal district in the country, Rep. Evans’ 8th CD located north and east of Denver with a partisan lean of 48.3D – 47.0R, would become decidedly Democratic, brandishing a new 53.0D – 44.1R partisan division.

Finally, the changes would push the Republican factor in Rep. Boebert’s district even higher. Currently, the 4th District partisan lean is 60.3R – 35.9D. The new map increases the Republican figure to 63.3 with a corresponding Democratic benchmark of 34.3. Extra Republicans were added to this district from Rep. Crank’s 5th CD to make the latter seat more Democratic.

The Colorado redistricting initiative process has a long way to go and qualifying a new map for a ballot referendum this year is no certain task. If successful, the new congressional map will be in place for the 2028 and 2030 elections with the Colorado Independent Commissions process returning to draw a new post-census 2032 map that will be designed to last through the ensuing decade.

Mississippi Rep. Bennie Thompson Faces Attack by Younger Challenger

(Challenger Evan Turnage ad)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, February 20, 2026

House

As we draw closer to the March primary elections, one Democratic challenger unveiled a new media ad this week aimed at denying renomination to one of his party’s congressional stalwarts.

Evan Turnage, a former congressional staff member to both Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), returned to his native Mississippi to challenge veteran Congressman Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton).

Turnage is one of a growing number of younger Democratic candidates opposing elderly veteran US House members and making their length of service a campaign issue. Rep. Thompson, who was initially elected in 1992, is 78 years old.

Turnage turned up the heat against the 17-term incumbent and former chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee with his new television ad (see above). The strategy behind the media tactic is to create a negative image of Rep. Thompson for failing to deliver for the home constituency.

In the ad, which Turnage narrates, Rep. Thompson’s challenger says that he is from “the poorest district in the poorest state in the country.” He then indicates that Mississippi’s 2nd District held that same distinction when Congressman Thompson was first elected, at a time when Turnage was one year old, and that it still remains true today.

The ad continues with film of dilapidated housing and suggesting that the constituency is downtrodden. Turnage emphasizes that Rep. Thompson’s long tenure in Congress has not improved living conditions, and the challenger promises to do better.

In his media release unveiling the ad, Mr. Turnage says that his campaign is making a “six figure buy.” This is interesting because his year-end Federal Election Commission report shows only $53,877 cash-on-hand from just over $65,000 raised for the campaign. It’s possible that he had a strong fundraising month of January, otherwise the media buy will be on the lower end of his promised spectrum.

The Mississippi primary is scheduled for March 10th. Logistics professor Pertis Williams is also a Democratic congressional candidate, so theoretically a runoff election is possible in this race. If no one secures majority support, the top two finishers would advance to an April 7 runoff election.

It is highly unlikely that the votes will break almost evenly with Williams taking enough to deny the leader 50 percent, but this result is mathematically possible. Chances are very strong, however, that the nomination contest will be decided on March 10 and in Thompson’s favor.

The 2nd District lies in Mississippi’s western delta region and is the state’s lone Democratic congressional district. The CD houses 28 counties and parts of two others. The population centers include part of the city of Jackson, Mississippi’s state capital, Greenville along the delta, Yazoo City, and the definitive Civil War battle site of Vicksburg. Geographically, the seat stretches almost from the Tennessee border to just short of Louisiana, and along the western Mississippi border shared with Arkansas and Louisiana.

The population is majority Black, 62.2 percent, and 34.3 percent White. To substantiate Turnage’s claim about the district, the median household income is $43,811 according to the Data USA figures. The district’s poverty rate is 25.9 percent. The household income figure is less than half the national median level of $97,261. The Mississippi median income number is $70,821 and the state continues to rank last in national household income. Therefore, Turnage’s claim that MS-2 is the poorest district in the poorest state is verified.

Including Turnage’s challenge to Rep. Thompson, 13 Democratic incumbents over 70 years of age are seeking re-election and face credible much younger primary challengers. The additional dozen are: Reps. Mike Thompson (D-CA), Doris Matsui (D-CA), Mark DeSaulnier (D-CA), Maxine Waters (D-CA), John Larson (D-CT), David Scott (D-GA), Ed Case (D-HI), Kweisi Mfume (D-MD), Steve Cohen (D-TN), Al Green (D-TX), Sylvia Garcia (D-TX), and Don Beyer (D-VA).

At this point, each of these Democratic incumbents is favored for renomination, but the combined quality of their opponents suggests that the races should be monitored throughout the primary election cycle for potential upset possibilities.

Redistricting:
New York, Utah, and Virginia

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, February 19, 2026

Redistricting

Redistricting news is coming to the forefront in three states, New York, Utah, and Virginia. Today, we will review the latest information.

New York

Empire State Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis (R-Staten Island) previously filed a lawsuit appealing a lower court ruling that declared her 11th Congressional District as a racial gerrymander. Her appeal is before the New York Appellate Division. The initial ruling was made in relation to the New York Voting Rights Act.

This is the first time that a federal political district has been adjudicated under a state voting rights law. While the ruling declared NY-11 as a racial gerrymander, it also included a redraw order that negated the use of the current NY-11 CD in the 2026 election.

Under the New York judicial procedure, a motion to appeal automatically stays the previous ruling until heard by the upper courts. This week, the New York Court of Appeals, the state’s highest court and equivalent to a Supreme Court in most states, released a statement saying they would not hear the case on an expedited basis and further emphasizing that the Appellate Division is the proper authority to rule on the motion.

Therefore, a great deal of confusion remains. If the appellate division fails to act before the New York candidate filing deadline of April 6, would this lead to a postponement of the filing procedure and possibly the June 23 primary? And, if the court delays the filing deadline and potentially the primary, would this apply statewide or just to the 11th Congressional District and the neighboring CDs that a redraw would affect?

Once again, we see another redistricting issue causing widespread confusion. It remains to be seen how the courts rule; until they do at least a portion of the New York congressional map hangs in abeyance.

Utah

Utah Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App

In 2025, a Utah court ruled that the Beehive State’s congressional map was illegal because the legislature failed to adhere to voter passed criteria relating to the drawing of congressional districts.

As a result, the court imposed a new map, one that will create a Salt Lake City-anchored seat, labeled District 1, that a Democrat will win. In fact, at this point, about a month before the congressional filing deadline of March 13, no Republican has even announced their candidacy. Therefore, a gain of one Democratic seat under this new Utah map appears certain.

According to a report from The Down Ballot political blog, Republican activists took to the streets and submitted ballot petition signatures to repeal the new map and thereby restore the previous plan. The activists have submitted well over the number of signatures required to qualify a ballot initiative, but whether the signatures adhere to all provisions of the petition law remains unclear.

Not only does a petition need 140,748 signatures, but a specific number must come from various geographic regions. Therefore, whether the petitions submitted meet the regional requirements remains unknown. The election authorities have until March 7 to issue a decision.

It is most likely that the new map will remain in place at least for the 2026 elections. If so, we will see a new Democrat coming from Salt Lake City, along with Congressman Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) and Rep. Celeste Malloy (R-Cedar City) paired in new District 3. This draw takes UT-3 south and east of Salt Lake City before stretching down the Colorado border all the way to Arizona.

Virginia

Despite a lower court ruling that negated the Virginia attempt to redistrict because the judge ruled that the legislature violated their own rules in order to schedule a redistricting referendum vote, the state Supreme Court is allowing the proposed April 21 referendum to proceed.

Virginia Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App

The decision would allow the public to vote on a proposed map, likely without the voters actually seeing the draw, and although the justices indicated they will continue to hear the case and review the previous ruling, the issue of whether the new map will be used for the 2026 election remains unclear.

It is probable, after the referendum vote likely passes that the new map will be in place for the current 2026 election cycle.

This new plan will radically change the state. Currently, the Democrats have six congressional seats in the Virginia delegation and the Republicans’ five. The new plan projects that Democrats could gain four seats, thus making a 10D – 1R delegation.

Some analysts suggest that a 9D – 2R split is more likely, however. Congresswoman Jen Higgins (R-Virginia Beach) would be placed in a 50-50 District 2, and her likely opponent is the woman she unseated in 2022, former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D). Therefore, the Virginia Beach race might be the tightest in the state. The rest of the GOP members will be likely drawn out of their seats or paired with another Republican.

From a national redirecting standpoint, the Virginia situation is extremely critical because if the Democrats gain four seats here, they very possibly could finish slightly ahead of Republicans in national redistricting if they meet their stated goals in California, Utah, and Virginia.

The national redistricting picture is still cloudy. It is unclear exactly how many new maps will be in place for the 2026 election, and if either party could meet their stated maximum goals regarding the flipping of congressional districts to their side.

Therefore, many unanswered questions remain regarding which maps will be in place for election year 2026 and is largely due to judicial inaction.

The new maps locked into place lie in California, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. The states where legal and political challenges remain are Louisiana, still before the US Supreme Court; Missouri, regarding a qualification of a balance initiative that can negate their new map; and Florida, balanced on whether will or not a new map will pass in a special legislative session. Those are in addition to the three states we covered in this column, New York, Utah, and Virginia.

Malinowski Concedes in NJ-11;
Murkowski Says No in Alaska

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, February 11, 2026

NJ-11

Democratic Socialist Analila Mejia / NJPBS

With former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) conceding defeat in the close NJ-11 special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) in Congress, Democratic Socialist Analila Mejia, a former staff member to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), has won the party primary and will advance into the special general election on April 16.

Turnout for the special was low, with 63,804 Democrats participating as we analyze near-final unofficial tabulations. Mejia defeated Malinowski, 29.1 – 27.7 percent, a margin of 889 votes (18,584 to 17,695).

Mejia will also file for the full term before March 23, and it remains to be seen how many of the 12 defeated special election Democrats will decide to challenge her in that race for the regular term.

In the special general, Mejia will face Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway, who was unopposed in the special Republican primary. Because Mejia is to the left of the district’s historical voting pattern, the Republican leadership will now make the calculated decision about whether to run a significant campaign in an attempt to score an upset victory.

Chances are that Mejia will likely win the general against a minimal effort, since Republicans have been performing poorly in special elections around the country since the 2024 election and will likely choose to save the money to use in other regular election contests.

The next special election will occur in Georgia on March 10 in the Peach State’s vacant 14th District (Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resignation). There, 16 members of the GOP, three Democrats, a Libertarian, and an Independent will compete in a jungle primary for Georgia’s strongest Republican seat.

Should no one receive majority support, almost a certainty from such a crowded field, the top two finishers will advance to an April 7 special general election.

The final special election will occur in California’s 1st District on June 2. State Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) is favored to win the seat outright in the first election. Should others join the candidate field and force a runoff, the secondary election will be held on Aug. 4.

The CD-1 position is vacant due to the death of the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville).

Alaska

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who had not ruled out entering her state’s open Governor’s race, said to reporters earlier in the week that she will not run later this year, and restated her commitment to serve Alaska in the US Senate.

It is likely that Sen. Murkowski would have been favored to win the Governor’s position, as her father did in 2002. Gov. Frank Murkowski was then defeated in the 2006 Republican primary, losing to future Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin and even dropping to a third-place finish.

In 2026, it is probable that Lisa Murkowski would have advanced into the general election via the top four jungle primary system that Alaska employs. Ten Republicans have announced for the position, but the crowded field would have helped her since the conservative vote would have been split among so many candidates.

Without former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) in the race – she chose instead to run for the US Senate – the Republicans will again be favored to win the general election.

The Senator’s decision looks to lay the groundwork for an interesting 2028 campaign, however. Term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) has already said he plans to challenge Sen. Murkowski in the next election.