Category Archives: House

Primary Results: Bowman Loses; Boebert, Curtis, Maloy Win

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Primary Results

Assuming the still unofficial Virginia congressional race that will likely see Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) lose to state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) holds as expected, the second US House member of the cycle went down to a crushing defeat last night in New York.

In the west, Utah US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) has punched his ticket for the US Senate, and Colorado US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) successfully claimed the Republican nomination in a new district. In a contested Utah congressional race, short-term incumbent Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) looks to have won a close renomination campaign.

George Latimer defeats Rep. Jamaal Bowman. (Photo by Malcolm Frouman)

New York — The big story of the Empire State’s political evening is Westchester County Executive George Latimer easily defeating US Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) in what is being called the most expensive congressional primary in US history.

Approximately $30 million was spent in this campaign when adding the two candidates’ expenditures and including all the outside money. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s affiliated Super PAC looks to have spent over $17 million toward defeating Bowman, one of the most ardent anti-Israel House members. With a majority vote exceeding 58 percent, Latimer convincingly denied the congressman’s renomination.

Four years after Bowman unseated then-Rep. Eliot Engel in the 2020 Democratic primary, he sees the tables turn in this election. Ironically, Bowman’s 55-41 percent ousting of Rep. Engel is similar to the 58-41 percent suffered in his own primary defeat.

Latimer, in his current position, represents 91 percent of the 16th Congressional District. Before winning his county position, Latimer had been elected to the state Senate and Assembly. In last night’s primary, he captured over 63 percent of the dominant Westchester County vote. In the remaining small Bronx County portion, Rep. Bowman recorded almost 84 percent support.

Elsewhere in the state, former CNN reporter John Avlon easily defeated former congressional nominee Nancy Goroff in the 1st District Democratic primary. Avlon now advances to the general election as an underdog to face freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County).

New York City Rep. Dan Goldman turned back two Democratic opponents with 66 percent of the vote, which will secure him a second term in November from the Manhattan anchored 10th CD.

Turning to the Queens-Bronx 14th District, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won an easy renomination against a minor Democratic opponent with 82 percent of the vote.

In what will be a very competitive Syracuse-based 22nd District general election, as expected, state Sen. John Mannion claimed the Democratic nomination last night with a 62-38 percent victory over local town councilwoman Sarah Klee Hood even though the latter contender won three of the district’s five counties. Sen. Mannion now advances into a toss-up general election versus freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) in a race that will have national majority implications.

In the Upstate 24th District, Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-Canandaigua) defeated attorney Mario Fratto with 61 percent of the vote. The congresswoman claimed 13 of the district’s 14 counties as she turned back a spirited effort from Fratto. Rep. Tenney now becomes a prohibitive favorite to defeat Democrat David Wagenhauser in the November election.

Colorado — A busy primary night in the Centennial State saw much of the action occurring in the state’s eastern 4th CD, vacant because of former Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) resignation. Rep. Boebert, moving into the district from her western slope 3rd CD, easily captured the GOP nomination, which is usually tantamount to winning in November. Congresswoman Boebert recorded 43.2 percent preference to finish first, well ahead of second-place finisher Jerry Sonnenberg, a local county commissioner. He received just 14.5 percent. The third, fourth, and fifth place finishers all scored between 13.8 and 10.6 percent of the vote.

Boebert will now face Democratic speechwriter Trisha Calvarese, who scraped past two-time congressional nominee Ike McCorkle. McCorkle raised more than $1.4 million for his failed campaign. Calvarese was the party’s choice for the special election to fill the remaining part of the current term.

The Republican special election nominee, who agreed to serve only as a caretaker until the general election picks a permanent member, easily won the concurrent election. Former local mayor Greg Lopez, without spending much money, recorded a strong 58-34 percent victory over Calvarese to secure the seat for the GOP in a vote that is projected to draw more than 172,000 cast ballots. Rep-Elect Lopez will become the 220th member of the Republican conference.

The House will now be down to two vacancies, one from each party. The Wisconsin seat of resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) and the death of New Jersey Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark) are the remaining districts without member representation.

Elsewhere in the state, attorney Jeff Hurd, despite Democratic attempts to vault Republican former state Rep. Ron Hanks to the 3rd District GOP nomination, won the party primary with 41.5 percent of the vote over five Republican opponents. The Hurd victory gives the Republicans their strongest candidate in an attempt to hold Rep. Boebert’s western slope district against 2022 Democratic nominee Adam Frisch, who held the congresswoman to a 546-vote win, the previous cycle’s closest US House race.

In retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn’s (R-Colorado Springs) open 5th District, radio talk show host, and three-time congressional candidate Jeff Crank, easily defeated Colorado Republican Party chairman Dave Williams with a whopping 67-33 percent margin. Despite the two opposing each other in two campaigns, Rep. Lamborn and Crank came together for this contest. The 5th District is safely Republican, so Crank becomes a sure bet to succeed Rep. Lamborn in the next Congress.

Utah — Overcoming the Donald Trump and Utah Republican Party-endorsed candidate, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) recorded an impressive 51-29-13-6 percent victory over Staggs, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman Jason Walton to win the open Republican US Senate nomination. The congressman carried 28 of Utah’s 29 counties.

Curtis now becomes the strongest of favorites to defeat Democrat Caroline Gleich in the general election. Rep. Curtis will then succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R).

Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) also defeated an official Utah Republican Party-endorsed candidate, Paul Miller, with 72 percent of the GOP primary vote.

The going was much tougher for freshman Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) who eked out what will likely be a 51-49 percent win over businessman Colby Jenkins who had strong support from US Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT). Rep. Maloy will now advance into the general election where she will secure her first full congressional term.

In Rep. Curtis’ open District 3, Trump and state party endorsed candidate Mike Kennedy, a physician and state senator, scored a crowded primary victory with 36 percent of the vote over four Republican opponents. State Auditor John “Frugal” Dougall, who ran as the MAGA opposition candidate, calling himself “mainstream” fell to a last place finish with just eight percent of the vote. In a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+26, Sen. Kennedy will have little trouble securing the seat in November.

South Carolina Runoff — The lone South Carolina congressional runoff occurred in the state’s western open 3rd District from which Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-Laurens) is retiring. In a very close finish, Gov. Henry McMaster’s (R) endorsed candidate, Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs, defeated Donald Trump-endorsed pastor Mark Burns, 51-49 percent, after Burns finished first in the June 11 primary. In another safe Republican district (538 rating: R+44), Biggs is now a lock to claim the seat in the general election.

Primary Action Today

READER ADVISORY: This short video of New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman contains profanity-laced language throughout his appearance. It is only a brief clip of his appearance at the rally.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Today’s Primaries

Today brings us another series of important primaries. Voters in New York, Colorado, Utah, and South Carolina will decide nominations in either primary elections or a congressional runoff and special election.

It is likely that Utah Republican voters will effectively elect a new US senator tonight. Three House incumbents in the various primary states are in highly competitive races, the most vulnerable of whom is two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY). Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-UT) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) also face intra-party challenges. A South Carolina runoff will effectively elect a new House member, and eastern Colorado voters will fill resigned Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) vacancy for the remainder of the current term.

New York — The Empire State nomination elections feature one major battle, that in the 16th Congressional District Democratic primary as Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) is in severe danger of losing renomination to Westchester County Executive George Latimer. Bowman (seen above in a Saturday campaign event that has gotten quite a bit of attention) has been out-raised by Latimer by well over $1 million. The outside money, mostly coming from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s United Democracy PAC, has dropped over $17 million either to support Latimer or oppose Rep. Bowman. This contrasts to the $2 million in outside support for Bowman.

The latest poll released of the race, from Emerson College (June 6-8; 425 likely NY-16 Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) posted Latimer to a 48-31 percent advantage over Rep. Bowman. While it appears that Rep. Bob Good (R-VA) lost his close renomination battle last week, Rep. Bowman may become the second incumbent to fall to a primary challenger in this election cycle.

Most of the delegation, including Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), face little or no competition tonight. Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-Canandaigua) should easily dispatch her 24th District primary challenger, attorney Mario Fratto. Reps. Dan Goldman (D-New York City) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-East Elmhurst) also face minor primary opposition.

In Long Island’s 1st District, Democrats are choosing between former CNN News reporter John Avlon and 2020 nominee Nancy Goroff. The winner then challenges freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) in the general election.

Turning to the Syracuse-anchored 22nd CD, it is arguable that freshman GOP Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) received the most unfavorable redraw in the new redistricting map. Vying for the Democratic nomination are state Sen. John Mannion (D-Syracuse) and DeWitt Town Councilwoman Sarah Klee Hood. Sen. Mannion is favored for the nomination, and the general election promises to end in close fashion.

Colorado — The race attracting the most attention is the open 4th District where Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) is moving from the western slope 3rd District across the state into eastern Colorado’s 4th CD. With her two top opponents falling by the political wayside, it appears Rep. Boebert will win nomination from her new CD. The Democratic primary is worth watching even in this district where the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+26. Early polling suggests that Rep. Boebert will be in a competitive general election even in the state’s strongest Republican district.

Rep. Boebert’s current district features a competitive Republican primary to replace her as the party nominee. Democrats are spending money to elevate former state representative and 2022 US Senate candidate Ron Hanks, who they believe would be a weaker general election nominee than attorney Jeff Hurd. The winner faces former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch (D), who held Rep. Boebert to a 546-vote win in 2022, making it the closest finish of any congressional race in the previous election cycle.

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Trump Endorses Alaska Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom for House Seat; Ciscomani Leads in Arizona; Rare Poll in IL-17; Five-Term Rep. Graves Won’t Run in LA-6

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 21, 2024

House

Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R)

AK-AL: Trump Endorses Lt. Governor — The Alaska at-large district is the most Republican seat that a House Democrat holds. Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) has won three congressional elections, largely through the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system. This year, the stage may be set for a similar conclusion. Businessman Nick Begich III (R), nephew of former Democratic US Sen. Mark Begich (D), ran against former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) in the special election when veteran Rep. Don Young (R) passed away, and for both succeeding regular terms. This year, while Palin is not running, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom has joined the Republican congressional field.

Under the Alaska system, all candidates appear on the jungle primary ballot, and the top four primary finishers advance into the general election irrespective of political party affiliation. Former President Donald Trump announced his endorsement for Dahlstrom, the candidate who enjoys the national and state Republican Party leadership backing. With two strong candidates battling for the Republican vote, it is likely that Rep. Peltola will again finish first among the top four general election finalists. The question to be answered is whether she can reach the 50 percent mark. If not, Ranked Choice Voting then takes effect.

Begich says he will withdraw if Dahlstrom places ahead of him in the initial qualifying election on Aug. 20. Dahlstrom has yet to make a similar promise.

In the latest available published poll, though dated, from Data for Progress (Feb. 23-3/2; 1,120 likely AK-AL voters; online), Begich had a large 41-12 percent lead over Dahlstrom. In a head to head pairing against Rep. Peltola, the congresswoman and Begich tied at 50-50 percent. Once again, the Alaska at-large campaign is a race to watch.

AZ-6: Rep. Ciscomani Holds Comfortable Lead — An internal Public Opinion Strategies poll (May 28-30; 300 likely AZ-6 general election voters; live interview) for the Juan Ciscomani re-election campaign finds the freshman Arizona congressman holding a 50-39 percent advantage over former state senator and 2022 Democratic congressional nominee Kirsten Engel as the two prepare for a rematch from the campaign of two years ago.

The 6th District, which sits in Arizona’s southeastern corner, is politically marginal in nature but made more Republican in the 2021 redistricting plan. In the previous election, Ciscomani defeated Engel, 50.7 – 49.2 percent, a margin of 5,232 votes. The same survey finds former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden, but with a smaller margin than Rep. Ciscomani’s advantage, 49-45 percent. In 2020, Biden carried this region with the slightest 49.3 – 49.2 percent edge.

IL-17: Rare Poll is Published — If there is a competitive seat in the Illinois delegation, it is the far western 17th District, anchored in the Quad Cities, which freshman Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) now represents. Republicans nominated retired circuit judge Joe McGraw back in March. The 1892 survey research organization just released their polling data (released June 19; 400 likely IL-17 voters; live interview) and the results find Rep. Sorensen holding a 44-35 percent lead over McGraw.

The 17th was highly competitive prior to the last redistricting, but the legislative Democrats who drew the plan configured the 17th in a much different manner. The district configuration now resembles the form of a letter “C” beginning in the city of Rockford, then coming west to pick up the Illinois section of the Quad Cities, meaning the cities of Rock Island and Moline, and then turns east to include Galesburg, downtown Peoria, and the territory all the way to Bloomington. The FiveThirtyEight data organization calculates a D+4 rating for the post-redistricting 17th, but that number should realistically increase because of a new Democratic incumbent seeking re-election.

LA-6: Rep. Graves Won’t Run –– This year’s final chapter in the Louisiana redistricting saga perhaps has now been written. Earlier in this election cycle, a court struck down the Louisiana congressional map as a racial gerrymander because a second majority minority seat could be drawn and was not. Then the map was redrawn to transform the current 6th CD into such a district, but it stretched from Baton Rouge to Shreveport. Activists sued to get the map disqualified since it was similar to a draw the courts rejected in 1994 because the Constitution forbids race being a determining factor in drawing districts. Subsequently, the US Supreme Court issued a stay on that ruling, thus reviving the original redraw that created the state’s second majority minority seat.

Though there is likely to be a future challenge to the map, it appears evident that this will be the Louisiana congressional plan that prevails at least for the 2024 election. As a result, the odd man out on this draw is five-term Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) who was left with the choice of running in a decidedly Democratic new 6th CD (Biden ’20: 59-39 percent) or challenging either Republican incumbents Julia Letlow (R-Start) or Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette).

Graves has now decided not to challenge either member, saying he does not wish to upset the Republican political apple cart for what could only be a short-term map. The litigation in this redistricting case is far from over, so Graves’ congressional career may not be ending, but only suspended.

With Rep. Graves leaving the House and state Sen. Michael Rulli (R) winning the OH-6 special election on June 11, it means there are now 50 open congressional seats, 25 from the Democratic column, and 24 from the Republican side, along with the newly created Alabama district through that state’s redraw. The open seat number will reduce to 49 when the vacant Colorado District 4 is filled in a special election on June 25.

Trump Now Supports Florida Rep. Lee; Florida State Rep. Leaves Race; McGuire Declares Victory in VA-5;

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 20, 2024

House

FL-15 Rep. Laurel Lee

FL-15: Trump Reverses Course Regarding Rep. Lee — In April, former President Donald Trump called upon his political support base to field a Republican primary candidate against freshman Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa) in what is the most competitive of the Florida Republican-held congressional seats. Lee, who Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed as secretary of state before her election to the US House, endorsed DeSantis as the Republican candidate for president, not Trump, which caused Trump to originally target her for defeat.

No strong challenger to Lee came forward, however, although one — James Judge, who ran in the 14th District in 2022 — decided to hop into the race against Rep. Lee when Trump made his statement. Therefore, with the lack of a credible developing challenge against Rep. Lee, Trump has now given his “complete and total endorsement” to the congresswoman. Rep. Lee looks to be in strong position for renomination and for re-election, though she faces a credible Democratic challenger in the person of Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp in a 15th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7.

FL-11: Ex-State Rep. Abandons Primary Challenge — Former Florida state Rep. Anthony Sabatini, who was defeated for the Republican nomination two years ago in the 7th CD (Rep. Cory Mills-R) and had subsequently launched a Republican primary challenge to Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) in the state’s 11th District almost a year ago, now drops his bid.

Instead, Sabatini will run for a local county commissioner position. Remaining in the primary against Rep. Webster is geophysicist John McCloy. Without Sabatini in the race, Rep. Webster should have an easy run in the Aug. 20 primary, and in the general election.

VA-5: McGuire Declares Victory — Though the race has not been officially finalized, it does appear that Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) has been defeated for renomination. His opponent, state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot), thinks so and has publicly declared victory. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, all the outstanding votes have now been counted and McGuire has a 309-vote lead. With only provisional and overseas ballots left to be received and counted, it is highly unlikely that even this small lead can be overcome.

Once final, Rep. Good will be the first 2024 cycle incumbent of either party to lose renomination to a non-incumbent challenger. The only other incumbent defeat in either the Senate or the House occurred in Alabama when Reps. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) and Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) were paired in a court ordered redistricting plan. Moore scored a 52-48 percent victory on March 5. Other primary defeats may soon follow, however. On Tuesday, Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Celeste Maloy (R-UT) face serious primary challenges, and Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) attempts to win renomination from a new congressional district.

Primary Results; Biden Upside-Down in All But Five States; Surprising Poll for Endangered NY-4 Incumbent

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Primary Results

Former Trump White House aide Brian Jack

Georgia — In the Peach State congressional runoffs, former Trump White House aide Brian Jack, as expected, cruised to a secondary election victory over state Sen. Mike Dugan (R-Carrollton). Jack recorded just under 63 percent of the vote in the preliminary count, thus virtually assuring him of winning the general election in November. He will replace retiring Congressman Drew Ferguson (R-The Rock/Carrollton) in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+38.

In the 2nd District, businessman and former congressional and senatorial candidate Wayne Johnson easily defeated his Republican opponent and will now advance to the general election against 16-term veteran Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany). The Democrats now have a nominee against Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) in District 14. Retired Army Gen. Shawn Harris easily won his runoff election with 69 percent of the vote to claim the party nomination.

OK-4 — The Sooner State’s big race featured an expensive challenge to veteran Rep. Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman) in the state’s southern 4th Congressional District. Cole, now chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, easily overcame more than $5 million of self-funding expenditure from his Republican primary opponent, businessman Paul Bondar, in capturing just under 65 percent of the vote.

Virginia — The top race of the evening came in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District where state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) may have defeated Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) with a razor thin vote margin. It will likely be several days before we see final totals here because the post-election ballots, i.e., those coming in from overseas could make a difference in the outcome.

At this writing, McGuire holds a 315-vote lead over Rep. Good with approximately 96 percent of the vote recorded. There could be as many as 1,800 votes outstanding in addition to the 62,425 votes that the Secretary of State reports as being counted. Both men carried 12 of the district’s 24 counties. One, Appomattox County, appears to be decided in Rep. Good’s favor by just three votes.

Elsewhere in the Old Dominion, retired Navy captain and former congressional candidate Hung Cao was an easy Republican primary winner. He recorded 62 percent of the vote against four Republican opponents. Cao now advances to the general election where he will face an extreme uphill battle against veteran senator and former vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine (D).

In House District 2, businesswoman and Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal scored a landslide victory in the Democratic primary. Smasal will now face freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) in a district that only slightly favors the Republicans. In the competitive open District 7, voters in both parties confirmed their expected nominees, retired Army Lt. Col. Eugene Vindman for the Democrats and attorney and Iraq and Afghan War veteran Derrick Anderson on the GOP side.

District 10 also featured a crowded, competitive Democratic primary, with the winner having the inside track to replace retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg) who is leaving Congress due to a serious health issue. Her endorsed candidate, state Delegate Suhas Subramanyam (D-Loudoun County), scored a 30-27 percent victory over state Delegate Dan Helmer (D-Fairfax) and 10 others to capture the party nomination.

President

Approval Ratings: Biden Upside-Down in All But Five States — The Morning Consult organization test President Joe Biden’s job approval rating in all 50 states and sees just five where his positive reviews exceed the negative. California is the president’s strongest state where his job approval is plus-8. In the four others, his positive ratings exceed his negative in Maryland (four), New York (two), and Massachusetts and Washington (both one). In the other 45 states, the president’s job performance is under water. His most negative ratings, -63, -50, and -47, come in Wyoming, West Virginia, and North Dakota, respectively.

House

NY-4: Surprising Poll for Endangered Incumbent — McLaughlin & Associates released a poll conducted in late May (May 21-23; 400 likely NY-4 voters; live interview) that finds New York freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) leading the woman he defeated two years ago, former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Guillen, (D) by a 45-38 percent margin. The Empire State’s 4th District is the most Democratic seat a Republican holds in the nation (538: D+10), so this race is a major conversion target in 2024. It becomes one of the key seats in the nation that will determine which party controls the House majority in the next Congress.

One Delaware House Candidate Left; Michigan Rejects Candidate Lawsuit; Bowman Trailing in NY-16 Poll; Florida Ex-Rep. Runs for State Senate

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 14, 2024

House

Delaware state Sen. Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington)

DE-AL: Dem Drops Out — Delaware State Housing Authority Director Eugene Young (D), who outgoing Gov. John Carney (D) was supporting for a US House seat that the state chief executive previously represented, announced that he is ending his congressional campaign to replace US Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington). For the time being, this leaves the Democratic field to state Sen. Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington) who, if elected, would become the first transgender individual elected to Congress. Candidate filing for the late Sept. 10 primary does not end until July 9, so it is still possible for other candidates to enter the race.

All of Delaware’s key offices are open. Gov. Carney is term limited but running for the open Wilmington mayor’s position. Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long (D) has declared for governor, leaving her position open. Rep. Blunt Rochester is running for retiring US Sen. Tom Carper’s seat, and the situation pertaining to the open at-large House seat was described above.

MI-10: Court Rejects Candidate’s Lawsuit — The Michigan state Court of Appeals rejected former congressional candidate and Wayne State University Board of Governors member Anil Kumar’s (D) lawsuit to reverse the State Board of Canvassers’ decision to disqualify him from the 10th District congressional race. The Board ruled that he did not submit 1,000 legal petition signatures, which is a requirement under Michigan election law. Kumar was a factor in the race after putting $1 million of his own money into his campaign account.

Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) won the seat in 2022 by less than a percentage point. His 2022 opponent, former Macomb County prosecutor and judge Carl Marlinga, is running again this year as are three other qualified Democrats. Expect Marlinga again to win the primary. The general election will once again be competitive in a 10th CD that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+6.

NY-16: New Poll Finds Rep. Bowman Again Trailing — A just-released Emerson College poll (June 6-8; 425 likely NY-16 Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Westchester County Executive George Latimer continuing to lead two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) by a rather wide margin, 48-31 percent. Latimer also has the advantage in campaign fundraising.

The bad news for Rep. Bowman continues. Former Secretary of State and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) also announced her formal endorsement of Latimer. Ironically, it was Bowman himself who challenged and defeated a Democratic incumbent in 2020, then-Rep. Eliot Engel. Not surprisingly, Engel has also endorsed County Executive Latimer.

While incumbents have had a perfect year so far in renomination campaigns, Bowman, a member of the controversial Democratic Socialist “Squad,” may be the most vulnerable incumbent standing before a primary electorate. The New York primary is scheduled for June 25.

States

Florida: Ex-Congressman to Run for State Senate — Earlier in the week former Sunshine State Congressman Alan Grayson (D) announced that he was ending his campaign for the US Senate well before the state’s Aug. 20 primary, yet he is not stepping away from elective politics. Almost immediately after leaving the federal campaign, he announced his entry into an open Democratic primary for a central Florida state Senate seat.

Grayson was originally elected to the 8th District House seat in 2008 but defeated for re-election in 2010. He then moved into one of Florida’s new seats gained in reapportionment and was re-elected to the House two years later from the 9th CD. He then ran for Senate in 2016 but lost the Democratic primary. He returned in 2018 with a bid to reclaim his 9th District House seat, but fell to the new incumbent, Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee) by a 2:1 margin. It remains to be seen if he can now win election to the Florida Senate.

Undefeated, But for How Long?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 13, 2024

Incumbents

Virginia Republican Congressman Bob Good (R-Lynchburg)

With the Tuesday victories of South Carolina Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and William Timmons (R-Greenville), US House incumbents facing credible primary challengers have stacked up an 11-0 win record this cycle, but several of the most serious contests have yet to come.

In the next 12 days, three races will occur where the outcome is unclear. On Tuesday, Virginia Republican Congressman Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) faces state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) in a contest that could result in the cycle’s first non-redistricting related incumbent loss. A week later, Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) find themselves in the most volatile races.

Rep. Good, the chairman of the House Freedom Caucus and one of the leaders of the GOP movement to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy, faces a primary electorate for the first time. In his two previous victories, Good was nominated through district conventions.

The congressman’s endorsement of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis against former President Donald Trump in this year’s early primaries raised Trump’s ire to the point of him publicly supporting Sen. McGuire. McCarthy is also involved in the race, helping to raise and direct money toward toppling the incumbent in order to avenge his own loss.

According to the latest publicly released survey, the mounting opposition to Good may produce results. The WPA Intelligence organization released a poll at the end of last week (June 2-4; 300 likely VA-5 Republican primary voters; live interview) finding Sen. McGuire holding a 41-31 percent lead over Rep. Good.

Looking at the resource charts, the pre-primary reporting period (through May 29) showed Sen. McGuire raising $1.24 million as compared to Rep. Good’s $1.15 million. McGuire also had a $400,000 cash-on-hand advantage. The outside money likewise favored McGuire. According to the Open Secrets organization, funds spent for McGuire and against Good totaled approximately $4.1 million. The aggregate spending for Good and against McGuire is a much smaller $2.04 million.

Turning to the June 25 primary, a just-released Emerson College poll (June 6-8; 425 likely NY-16 Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Westchester County Executive George Latimer continuing to lead two-term New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) by a rather wide margin, 48-31 percent.

Latimer also has the advantage in campaign fundraising. In the early reports, he held more than a $1 million advantage in campaign receipts. In terms of outside spending, Latimer’s margin is even more favorable. Just under $10 million has been spent for Latimer and against Bowman, while the congressman sees only $1.6 million in Super PAC expenditures either for him or against Latimer. Most of the anti-Bowman money has come from an organization associated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

The bad news for Rep. Bowman continues. Former US Secretary of State and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) yesterday announced her formal endorsement of Latimer.

The electoral resume also favors the Westchester County Executive. Latimer represents 91 percent of the 16th Congressional District in his current position, and he was previously elected to the New York state Senate and Assembly.

The Centennial State primary is also scheduled for June 25, and while Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) today looks like she will score a victory in the 4th District Republican primary, she took a major gamble when she left the western slope district to move into the rural eastern Colorado open seat. It appears, however, the roll of the dice is paying dividends.

The latest 4th District poll finds Rep. Boebert holding a big lead, but arguably her strongest opponent, Logan County Commissioner Jerry Sonneberg, was not included on the candidates’ ballot test question. Therefore, the poll results are questionable. Regardless, the congresswoman appears headed to a nomination victory in less than two weeks.

The troubling part for Boebert may be in the post-primary general election, a surprise in what has proven to be Colorado’s most Republican seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CO-4 as R+26, and former President Trump scored a 58-39 percent victory there over President Joe Biden in 2020.

A late May Gravis Marketing survey (May 22-24; 423 likely CO-4 general election voters), however, found Rep. Boebert trailing badly. In this hypothetical race, Marine Corps officer and two-time Democratic congressional nominee Ike McCorkle posted a 41-27 percent advantage.

While the incumbents have posted a perfect record so far this election cycle, such a trend may soon change.