Category Archives: House

Redistricting Action Continues:
Texas & Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Redistricting

A look at how things might play out in two key states — Texas & Wisconsin — in the redistricting tug of wars

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), as expected, has added the congressional redistricting issue to the upcoming special session. The legislature is scheduled to reconvene on July 21. The session can last up to 30 days to handle the issues that the Governor places on the legislative call. Under Texas law, the Governor has the power to call an unlimited number of 30-day special sessions after the legislature adjourns for the biennial.

In Wisconsin, though the state Supreme Court justices recently said they would not hear the congressional redistricting case before them, a new lawsuit has been filed.

A group called the Wisconsin Business Leaders for Democracy filed the lawsuit claiming the current map is an “anti-competitive gerrymander,” distinguishing their claim from the partisan gerrymander lawsuit the Supreme Court refused to hear according to an Associated Press news story. An anti-competitive gerrymander refers to all incumbents rather than those of one particular party.

The Wisconsin suit was filed in before a Dane County circuit court where the plaintiffs will likely get a favorable ruling. The process, however, will be lengthy as appeals to any lower court ruling will occur before again reaching the state Supreme Court. Therefore, it may be a longshot to see the Wisconsin map redrawn before the 2026 midterm elections.

The Texas situation is much different, and Republican leaders may be able to produce a new map that increases the current plan’s 25R-13D split.

South Texas appears to attract the most attention in the special session. Using the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians’ partisan lean calculations (methodology employed to develop the partisan lean figures can be found on the following “About Data” link from the DRA website: About Data – Dave’s Redistricting App), we generally see the Republicans overperforming in the region.

Under the current Texas plan, the DRA partisan lean calculation correctly projected which party would hold the particular congressional district in 37 of the 38 CDs. The only officeholder to win a congressional seat where the opposing party held the partisan lean advantage occurred in South Texas District 15 where two-term GOP Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) held her seat with a 57-43 percent majority. The DRA 15th District partisan calculation gives the Democrats a 4.1 percentage point advantage.

President Trump carried 27 of the state’s 38 CDs, including three seats where the partisan lean calculation favored the Democrats. In addition to District 15, Trump also topped Kamala Harris in District 28 (Rep. Henry Cuellar; D-Laredo) and 34 (Rep. Vicente Gonzalez; D-McAllen). All of these CDs are located in South Texas.

Thus, the Trump performance largely destroys part of the Democrats’ racial gerrymander argument because he carried these three districts that have overwhelming minority populations.

In District 34, the Voting age minority population figure is 90.5 percent and 88.5 percent Hispanic. Trump won the district with a 51.8 – 47.4 percent majority. In District 15, the minority Voting Age Population (VAP) figure is 82.4 percent with the Hispanic VAP at 78.9 percent. President Trump carried this district with a strong 58.5 – 40.7 percent majority. District 28 has a minority VAP of 80.7 percent with a Hispanic VAP of 72.9 percent. The Trump winning margin here is 53.2 – 45.9 percent.

There are 19 Texas districts where White voters are the majority of the Voting Age Population. Trump won 18 of the 19. The one exception that supported Kamala Harris was Rep. Lloyd Doggett’s (D-Austin) 37th CD that stretches from Austin to San Antonio down the I-35 corridor.

Eighteen of the Texas congressional districts feature majority minority populations. Of those, Trump won nine of the 18 seats and exceeded the Republican benchmark in all 18. Trump also exceeded the DRA partisan lean GOP benchmark in the nine majority minority seats that Harris claimed. These statistics, to a significant degree, at least partially spoil the Democrats’ Voting Rights Act racial gerrymandering arguments.

Regarding the partisan lean figures from all of the Lone Star State’s 38 congressional districts, Trump exceeded the Republican benchmark in 32 of the seats. In the 14 districts where Democrats hold the partisan lean advantage, Trump exceeded the Republican benchmark in all.

In six districts, the Trump performance failed to reach the Republican benchmark, even though he carried each of the seats. Those where the President finished below the GOP partisan mean were TX-2 (Rep. Dan Crenshaw-R), TX-3 (Rep. Keith Self-R), TX-22 (Rep. Troy Nehls-R), TX-24 (Rep. Beth Van Duyne-R), TX-26 (Rep. Brandon Gill-R), and TX-38 (Rep. Wesley Hunt-R).

In Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts, we see similar patterns relating to President Trump’s performance in reference to the DRA partisan lean figures.

There, President Trump carried six of the state’s eight districts on his way to a 49.6 – 48.7 percent statewide victory. His vote total exceeded the DRA partisan lean in six of the eight districts. The only seats where he underperformed in relation to the Republican benchmark were in District 5 (Rep. Scott Fitzgerald-R), which ironically is the most Republican district in the state, and District 4 (Rep. Gwen Moore-D), Wisconsin’s most Democratic seat.

Though redistricting is designed to be done once per decade, changes in laws and procedures along with unending legal challenges to the district plans have made map drawing a perennial issue.

A Wave of House Announcements

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 9, 2025

House

Over the 4th of July break we saw at least 17 individuals announce their congressional candidacies, 10 of which are worth mentioning from a competitiveness perspective. Many of the individuals became candidates over this past weekend as a show of patriotism over the national Independence Day holiday or in response to the “One Big Beautiful Bill’s” enactment.

The seven not worthy of discussion, including a Democratic challenge to Speaker Mike Johnson in Louisiana’s 4th Congressional District, involve candidates running in strong opposite party seats who prove no serious threat to their incumbent opponents.

The 10 districts listed below have the potential of hosting interesting races. The referenced partisan leans for each of the seats are the work of the Dave’s Redistricting App’s statisticians. The Trump-Harris figures reveal the percentage each 2024 presidential candidate received in the particular district.

Iraq War veteran Brian Hualde / Facebook photo

1. AZ-5 (58.5R – 39.6D; Trump 63.9 – Harris 34.8%)

While Arizona’s 5th District, wholly contained in Maricopa County, appears solidly Republican, Democrats appear ready to challenge for the seat since the CD will be open in the 2026 election. The latest entry is Iraq War veteran Brian Hualde. He joins a field of five Democrats vying for the party nomination even though the eventual nominee will be a decided underdog in the special election.

Eight Republicans have entered the race. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is leaving the House to run for Governor. The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 4, 2026.

2. CA-3 (52.5R – 45.6D; Trump 50.3 – Harris 46.5%)

Two-term Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) has drawn his second 2026 Democratic opponent. Marine Corps veteran and Jeopardy! game show winner Tyler Vandenberg joined a Democratic congressional field that already features Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall. The general election again figures to be contested, but Rep. Kiley remains the favorite to score another victory in the low to mid 50s. The California jungle primary will be held June 2.

3. CT-1 (60.8D – 36.6R; Harris 60.6 – Trump 37.7%)

Veteran Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford) has drawn a Democratic primary challenge from Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune in one of several campaigns where the candidates’ age discrepancy will be a major issue. Rep. Larson is 77 years old with some health issues, while Fortune is 37. This could be a primary to watch. The Connecticut primary will be held Aug. 11, 2026.

4. FL-23 (56.5D – 42.3R; Harris 50.5 – Trump 48.6%)

In a Democratic seat that GOP leaders are attempting to make competitive, businessman Jared Gurfein became the fifth Republican to enter the primary in hopes of challenging two-term Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland).

While the district has lately been trending slightly more toward the Republicans than the electorate’s longer term voter history suggests, Rep. Moskowitz will likely be cast as a decided favorite to win another term in the low to mid 50s. The only Republican candidate with electoral experience is former state Rep. George Moraitis.

5. NE-2 (50.1R – 47.1D; Harris 51.6 – Trump 47.0%)

With five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) retiring, this Omaha anchored district is moving leftward and will be a top Democratic conversion opportunity. As expected, former state Senator and ex-gubernatorial candidate Brett Lindstrom (R) announced his candidacy. This contest will develop into a hard-fought, close campaign. The parties will choose their nominees on May 12, 2026.

6. NJ-12 (63.9D – 34.3R; Harris 60.6 – Trump 36.7%)

This is another campaign where the incumbent’s age versus that of her opponent will be an issue. Businessman Kyle Little (D) claims to respect 80-year-old New Jersey Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township) but at 36, Little says he would be much more able to serve the constituency. Rep. Watson Coleman remains a heavy favorite for the June 2, 2026 New Jersey congressional primary election.

7. TN-6 (61.4R – 36.4D; Trump 67.0 – Harris 31.8%)

With Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) running for Governor, the Congressman’s chief of staff, Van Hilleary (R) who himself served as the state’s 4th District Congressman from 1995-2003, announced that he will return to the elective politics circuit and attempt to succeed his current boss. Several state legislators are expected to join the race, but so far Hilleary would only face minor candidates. The eventual GOP nominee will be a lock in the general election.

8. TN-7 (55.1R – 42.1D; Trump 60.4 – Harris 38.1%)

With Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) resigning from the House on July 20, the first Democratic candidate filed with the Federal Election Commission. State Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) officially entered the special election and several others will soon be following suit.

Three Republicans have declared their candidacies: Former state cabinet official Matt Van Epps, Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight, and state Representative Jay Reedy (R-Erin) all declared soon after Rep. Green indicated he would leave the House midterm.

While Democrats clearly are making an effort to run, the eventual Republican nominee will be the clear favorite in the special general election. Once Green officially leaves office, Gov. Bill Lee (R) will have 10 days to announce the special election calendar.

9. VA-1 (54.1R – 44.1D; Trump 51.8 – Harris 46.9%)

Democrats have interest in challenging Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montross) because the 1st District is the only Virginia Republican congressional seat where President Trump’s percentage degraded compared with 2020.

This being the case, attorney and Army veteran Mel Tull became the third Democrat to enter the primary. He joins Chesterfield Circuit Court Clerk Amanda Pohl and corporate executive Lisa Vedernikova Khanna in the Democratic primary that will either be decided by a primary election or district convention in mid-June of next year. Despite Trump’s downturn, Rep. Wittman will again be favored for re-election.

10. WA-8 (49.9D – 48.4R; Harris 51.3 – Trump 45.5%)

Washington’s 8th District always has the potential of being competitive, and four-term Rep. Kim Shrier (D-Sammamish) has had her share of close finishes. Over the weekend, she drew a new Republican opponent for next year’s election. Two-time statewide candidate Bob Hagglund is now officially in the race. Rep. Shrier will be comfortably favored despite being in a district that could yield a very tight race. The Washington jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 4, 2026.

Pennsylvania’s Rep. Evans to Retire; Rep. Johnson Enters Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 3, 2025

After a long period of stability regarding House open seats, three new member announcements occurred just this week.

We covered Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-NE) retirement decision yesterday, and now we see Rep. Dwight Evans (D-PA) also headed for retirement and South Dakota at-large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R) declaring his candidacy for Governor.

PA-3

Five-term Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia)

After battling the after-effects from a stroke in 2024 that kept him from participating in congressional action for better than half a year, five-term Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) announced that he will retire at the end of the current Congress. Evans was first elected to his federal post in 2016 after serving 36 years in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives.

Pennsylvania’s 3rd District is fully contained in Philadelphia County and splits Philadelphia city with Rep. Brendan Boyle’s (D) 2nd District. PA-3 is heavily Democratic, so Rep. Evans’ successor will be decided in the 2026 Democratic primary.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean is 90.3D – 8.3R, obviously making it the safest Democratic district in the state. Not surprisingly, President Trump ran poorly here, losing to Kamala Harris in 2024 with an 88-11 percentage spread. In 2020, the gap was even larger as President Biden carried the district with a 90-9 percent margin.

The district is 51 percent Black, making it the only voting age population majority minority congressional seat in Pennsylvania. With a 3rd District voter registration of 77.8% Democratic and 10.0 percent Republican, a crowded Dem primary is expected and will decide which individual succeeds Rep. Evans. Next year’s Keystone State primary is scheduled for May 19.

SD-AL

On Monday, four-term at-large South Dakota Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) announced that he will enter the 2026 Governor’s race next year, a move that had been expected. In fact, Johnson’s move was so widely telegraphed that state Attorney General Marty Jackley (R) declared he would run to succeed the Congressman even before the official gubernatorial campaign announcement occurred.

The South Dakota Republican primary will be interesting in that Rep. Johnson is likely headed for a match against the now-sitting Republican Governor, Larry Rhoden. Once then-Gov. Kristi Noem resigned to become US Homeland Security Secretary, Rhoden, then the state’s Lieutenant Governor, ascended into the state’s chief executive position.

While he has not yet formally announced if he will run for Governor, it is expected that Rhoden will soon declare his official candidacy. Also in the race is state House Speaker Jon Hansen (R-Dell Rapids) and wealthy conservative businessman Toby Doeden.

The South Dakota Republican primary, scheduled for June 2 next year, will very likely decide the state’s next Governor. The last time Democrats claimed the Mt. Rushmore State Governorship was in the 1974 election.

Additionally, South Dakota is a runoff state. If no primary candidate receives at least 35 percent of the vote, a secondary election will be held. Next year, the runoff date, if necessary, will be July 28.

Johnson was first elected to the House in 2018 after serving as former Gov. Dennis Daugaard’s chief of staff. His first elected office, attained at age 28, was for a seat on the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission.

Considering the latest developments, the House open seat count now moves to 19, with 10 Democratic and 9 Republican seats in the category.

Three of the opens, because of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Sylvester Turner (D-TX), and Gerry Connolly (D-VA) passing away, will be filled in special elections later this year. Replacements for the remaining 16 seats will be decided during the regular election cycle.

Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) says he will resign from the House once the “One Big Beautiful Bill” is enacted. When he leaves Congress, the open seat count will rise to 20.

In those 16 regular election open seats, only three are coming because the incumbent is retiring from elective politics. Seven members are running for US Senate and six, like Rep. Johnson, are competing in their state’s respective gubernatorial election.

NE-2: Rep. Don Bacon to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 2, 2025

House

Five-term Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha)

Five-term Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) announced that he will not seek re-election in 2026, a development that many political observers expected.

At his media event, according to Fox News’s reporting, Rep. Bacon said, “After 30 years in the Air Force and 10 years in Congress, it’s time to spend my future with the love of my life, our four kids, and our wonderful grandchildren. Thank you, Nebraska!”

The Cornhusker State’s 2nd District has attracted a great deal of attention in the last two presidential election years. Like Maine, Nebraska apportions its electoral votes meaning that each congressional district – the state has three – casts its own vote as opposed to the winner-take-all process that the other 48 states utilize.

In both 2020 and 2024, NE-2 voted for the Democratic nominee against President Trump, thus awarding one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes to the opposite party’s national candidate. Naturally, this history suggests the open 2nd District could become the House Democrats’ top national conversion target in the 2026 election.

In the 2024 election, Kamala Harris topped President Trump by 14,636 votes in the 2nd District, but Rep. Bacon rebounded from the Republican top of the ticket loss to win re-election with a 5,829 vote spread. Four years earlier in the 2020 election, President Biden captured the 2nd District with a 22,091-vote margin, yet Rep. Bacon again rebounded to win re-election, this time by almost reversing the presidential deficit. He defeated Democrat Kara Eastman with a 15,365-vote spread.

The 2nd District is comprised of Douglas (Omaha) and Saunders counties along with approximately 25 percent of Sarpy County. Douglas County, however, is becoming more Democratic as further evidenced when John Ewing Jr. (D) ousted three-term Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert (R) earlier this year.

For a different Republican to keep the 2nd District, he or she will have to emulate Rep. Bacon’s totals in Douglas County to secure victory. No Republican has recently carried Douglas, but the new GOP nominee will have to keep the deficit margin within the district’s largest county to the same level as did Rep. Bacon.

For example, in the 2024 election, President Trump lost the county by 27,814 votes, Sen. Deb Fischer (R) suffered a much larger Douglas County defeat (46,101 votes), and even Senator and former Gov. Pete Ricketts trailed in the county by 14,530 ballots while scoring a strong 63-37 percent victory statewide. In the 2022 election, Gov. Jim Pillen (R) also lost the county, down 9,492 votes yet won the statewide tally with a 59-36 percent margin.

In 2024, Rep. Bacon found himself down 10,314 votes in Douglas County, 4,692 in 2022, and 1,597 in 2020 yet repeatedly won the 2nd CD. Therefore, for the next Republican nominee to hold the seat, the vote deficit level coming from Douglas County must be aligned with Rep. Bacon’s performance and no other Republican candidate.

In the past two elections, then-state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Bacon. It was clear after him losing again in 2024, especially with Harris carrying the seat in the same vote, that the Democratic leadership would move to a new candidate in 2026.

At this point, and the list will now likely grow, four Democrats have announced their candidacies, led by state Sen. John J. Cavanaugh, IV (D-Omaha), whose father, John J. Cavanaugh III, (D) held the congressional seat for two terms during the 1977-81 period. The others are attorney John Argyrakis, surgeon Mark Johnston, and political consultant Denise Powell.

On the Republican side, two names are surfacing early as potential candidates, those of Douglas County Sheriff Aaron Hanson and former state Sen. Brett Lindstrom.

The 2nd District race will again be expensive. Counting all candidate and external spending in 2024, an aggregate $34 million-plus was spent. In an open seat contest, expect that total expenditure figure to grow.

Rep. Bacon’s announcement means there are 17 (8R; 9D) open US House seats headed into the next election, but his is only the second retirement. Three members have passed away and the other 12 are leaving the House to run for another office.

Turning to the Senate, two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) announcing his retirement over the weekend means seven seats will be open in the 2026 election. In that body only one member, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), is leaving to run for another office. The rest are retiring from politics.

Review: House Open Seats

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 1, 2025

House

The next House election cycle will again conclude with few seats changing hands, and one party or the other controlling the chamber in 2027 with only a small margin.

Throughout the past decade and into the first two elections of the current decennium, we have seen an inordinately large number of open US House seats in each individual election cycle, usually between 48 and 63 seats; but not so for 2026.

To date, there are only 16 open House seats for the next election, and three of those are due to the incumbent member passing away. Therefore, the AZ-7 (Raul Grijalva), TX-18 (Sylvester Turner), and VA-11 (Gerry Connally) seats will be filled later this year in special elections.

Regarding the 13 announced open seats for the regular 2026 election (7R; 6D), only one, IL-9 (Rep. Jan Schakowsky-D), derives from a true retirement. The other dozen incumbents will leave the House to seek another elective office.

While the open seat number is sure to grow as candidate filing deadlines approach (beginning in December), we are still unlikely to see a plethora of House campaigns without an incumbent running in political prime time next year.

Therefore, the open count provides a further clue toward seeing a House election cycle that will again conclude with few seats changing hands, and one party or the other controlling the chamber in 2027 with only a small margin.

At this point, we see an additional five members who are soon to announce bids for other offices:

MI-4: Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), against the wishes of the national and state Republican Party leadership, looks to soon announce that he will challenge former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers for the open Republican US Senate nomination.

Huizenga would begin a Senate campaign in an underdog position for the primary, and his open southwestern Michigan congressional seat would become hotly contested in the general election.

NJ-11: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) is the Democratic gubernatorial nominee for the 2025 New Jersey statewide election. If she wins, and the Congresswoman is rated as an early favorite for the November vote, her 11th CD will go to a 2026 special election. Should she lose the Governor’s race, Rep. Sherrill would be eligible to return and seek re-election.

NY-21: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who was nominated as US Ambassador to the United Nations only to see her appointment pulled back in fear of the GOP losing her congressional seat in a special election, now looks perched to announce a bid for Governor.

With incumbent Kathy Hochul (D) posting poor job approval numbers and facing at least one strong Democratic primary opponent, a credible Republican’s chance to win the Governorship, while still a reach, appears better than in most election cycles. Even if she runs and loses, Rep. Stefanik would likely then be in line for another Trump appointment.

SC-1: South Carolina Congresswoman Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) is close to making an official gubernatorial announcement.

The three-term House member has been confirming for months that she is considering the open statewide race and when Attorney General Alan Wilson declared his gubernatorial candidacy earlier this week, Rep. Mace came out swinging, publicly attacking him as being “soft on crime.” Her swift response and comments are a discernible clue that she will soon officially enter the statewide campaign.

SC-5: Another South Carolina Congressman, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), is scheduling a “special announcement” for July 27, which is a clear signal that he, too, will run for Governor.

Assuming AG Wilson and the two House members all compete for the GOP nomination, a highly competitive Republican primary battle would transpire, culminating next June. Should no one obtain majority support in the June 11, 2026 primary, the top two finishers will participate in a runoff election two weeks later on June 25. The eventual GOP nominee will have the inside track to succeed retiring Gov. Henry McMaster (R).

There are several more members who have confirmed they are considering running for a different office but to date have yet to make any discernible move toward developing a statewide campaign. The Representatives in this category are:

Barry Moore (R-AL-1) — Senate
Rich McCormick (R-GA-7) — Senate
Mike Collins (R-GA-10) — Senate
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA-14) — Governor
Darin LaHood (R-IL-16) — Governor
Ritchie Torres (D-NY-15) — Governor
Dan Meuser (R-PA-9) — Governor
Harriet Hageman (R-WY-AL) — Governor

In the past, the following members have been mentioned as possible statewide candidates but are now considered unlikely prospects:

Cory Mills (R-FL-7) — Senate
Jared Moskowitz (D-FL-23) — Governor
Carlos Gimenez (R-FL-28) — Mayor of Miami-Dade County
Mike Lawler (R-NY-17) — Governor

An Early Redistricting Cycle

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 26, 2025

Redistricting

Putting together the redistricting puzzle

It appears we will see at least three states soon begin a mid-decade redistricting effort for various reasons.

It has been long assumed that the Wisconsin state Supreme Court justices would re-draw the congressional boundaries before the 2026 election. After the Democrats secured their high court majority before the 2024 election, the members reconfigured the state Assembly and Senate as a way to “rectify the Republican majority’s partisan gerrymander.” Surprisingly, the court did not follow suit to simultaneously change the congressional district map. It is probable they will take such action soon.

It is believed that a majority of the court justices, as at least two publicly stated when campaigning for their position, see the current 6R-2D congressional map as constituting a partisan gerrymander. It is expected that the justices will assign a special master to draw districts that would bring the partisan ratio to 4-4, which could mean Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) might lose their seats while threatening the very tight US House Republican majority.

The state of Ohio is also preparing for a re-draw, but not because of a partisan gerrymandering. Under Ohio election law, plans must pass both houses of the legislature with three-fifths of the voting members. Because the 2021 congressional plan was adopted with only majority support, the map would only be in effect for two succeeding elections, 2022 and 2024. Therefore, in order to comply with state law, the Ohio redistricting commission, comprised of elected officials, and the legislature must again embark upon the redistricting process.

Republicans hold a 10-5 advantage in the congressional delegation with two of the Democratic seats, District 9 (Rep. Marcy Kaptur; 48.3 – 47.6 percent 2024 election result) and District 13 (Rep. Emilia Sykes; 51.1 – 48.9 percent), being very tight from a partisan perspective. The weakest Republican showing in the last election came from Rep. Max Miller (R-Rocky River; 51.1 – 36.1 percent). Excluding Rep. Miller’s 51 percent tally, the remaining nine Republicans averaged 65.2 percent of the vote.

With Republicans generally in charge of the redistricting process expect moves to make the Kaptur and Sykes’ districts more Republican.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has called a special legislative session to begin July 21. Because Texas only has a short 140-day legislative session every other year, it has been commonplace after the last few sessions to bring the members back into an extra session to complete unfinished business.

Under Texas law, the Governor has sole authority to call a special session, but the legislative period can only consume 30 days. It is possible for the Governor to call additional sessions if more time is needed. Also importantly, it is only the Governor who sets the agenda for the legislative session. It is widely believed that Gov. Abbott will add congressional redistricting to this particular legislative special session.

Each of the three states has a unique reason for conducting a mid-decade redistricting session. In Texas’ case, it is because excessive growth has made several districts severely overpopulated.

Using the US Census Bureau’s mid-decade population estimates, Texas has grown in population by a 7.2 percent rate since the 2020 census was concluded. During this same time period, the national growth rate is 2.6 percent. The Texas number translates into over 1.2 million more people living in the state since the last Census. Should this trend continue, the Texas population will swell by over 4 million more people by 2030 when compared to 2020.

Therefore, the growth numbers account for the early estimated national reapportionment calculations that suggest Texas could gain an additional four congressional seats for the next decade. Hence, the Governor and legislative leaders will again redistrict to more equitably distribute the state’s major raw number growth figure throughout its current 38 congressional districts.

The Texas congressional delegation stands at 25R-13D; therefore, it would not be surprising to see the GOP dominated legislature attempt to expand the Republican position within the current congressional delegation through the redistricting session.

IA-1: A Close Re-match Predicted

Iowa Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 24, 2025

House

Iowa’s southeastern 1st Congressional District delivered the third-closest US House race in 2024, and the two principals are officially returning for a re-match. Late last week, former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) announced that she would return for a third attempt at unseating Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire).

The Congresswoman first won her seat in 2020 after several tries with a six-vote victory over former state Senator and Lieutenant Governor nominee Rita Hart (D) from the previous 2nd District.

Iowa runs a unique redistricting system, basically ceding map-drawing responsibility to a legislative committee staff who design the districts based upon a mathematical algorithm. The legislature then has the right to approve or reject the map without amendment.

In the 2021 redistricting cycle, the legislature turned down the original map, which led to the present draw. The final plan forced Reps. Miller-Meeks and Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) to switch districts, but both Republican members have been able to hold their new CDs.

The 1st District covers 20 complete counties and is anchored in the Quad Cities area, which features the Davenport and Bettendorf municipalities in Scott County on the Iowa side of the Iowa-Illinois border. The remaining entities that comprise the four-city group lie in the Land of Lincoln.

The seat then stretches west as far as the city of Indianola, which lies due south of Iowa’s capital city of Des Moines. The other significant population centers are Iowa City, which houses the University of Iowa, and the Burlington, Clinton, and Newton communities.

IA-1 is politically marginal. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 50.0R – 46.7D partisan lean. President Trump carried the district with a 53.5 – 45.0 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris. In 2020, Trump defeated President Biden here, 50.5 – 47.6 percent.

Therefore, Rep. Miller-Meeks’ 799-vote victory margin, translating into a percentage spread of 48.4 – 48.2, was an underperfor-mance in relation to President Trump’s total, but also when compared to the partisan lean. In 2022, however, and again opposite Bohannan, Rep. Miller-Meeks scored a 52.6 – 42.9 percent victory, which is more consistent with other Republican margins.

The 2024 election cycle displayed obvious weakness for Rep. Miller-Meeks not only in the general election, but also in the Republican primary. In the June vote, Rep. Miller-Meeks managed only a 56 percent victory against a GOP primary opponent who literally spent no money.

The 2026 IA-1 race will again be close, and Miller-Meeks must work to strengthen her Republican base, since the Trump coalition, or MAGA faction, as a group apparently does not believe her to be solidly conservative.

Rep. Miller-Meeks’ 2024 Republican opponent, advertising executive David Pautsch, returns for a re-match and pledges to run a serious campaign in the 2026 primary although his $8,170 raised in the first quarter of 2025 doesn’t provide evidence of a budding competitive effort.

Seeing the 2nd Quarter totals for both candidates — the period closes June 30 with a filing deadline of July 15 — will be interesting. Obviously, Pautsch must significantly improve his fundraising for his candidacy to become credible, and it will be worth seeing if Rep. Miller-Meeks continues to do well on the fundraising trail. In the 1st Quarter, she reported a strong $1.02 million in receipts with a cash-on-hand figure of $1.09 million.

Clearly, the IA-1 contest is a congressional race with national majority implications since the House partisan divide after the 2026 election is again projected to be very close. Expect a very expensive general election congressional campaign in southeast Iowa and another close finish.

Special Elections Update

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Special Elections

Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville)

With Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) announcing that he will resign from the House after the “Big Beautiful Bill” is enacted, now four special congressional elections will occur before the end of 2025.

Due to the deaths of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Sylvester Turner (D-TX), and Gerry Connally (D-VA), three elections to fill those vacancies have already been scheduled.

The earliest calendar is in Virginia, where the party primary date has been set for June 28 with the special general scheduled for Sept. 9. Here, the two leading contenders are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville). With a partisan lean of 67.2D – 30.7R (Dave’s Redistricting App), the eventual Democratic nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the special general election.

On July 15, partisan primaries will be conducted to replace late Arizona Rep. Grijalva. As in the Virginia situation, the AZ-7 district is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App: 65.5D – 32.3R), so the nomination battle largely between ex-Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, the late Congressman’s daughter, and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez will decide who wins the Sept. 23 special general election. Early indications suggest that Grijalva is a heavy favorite to clinch the Democratic primary and succeed her father in Congress.

The Texas special election for the Houston-anchored 18th District is scheduled concurrently with the state’s Nov. 4 municipal election calendar. In this situation, a jungle primary will be held featuring all candidates on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation. The TX-18 seat is even more overwhelmingly Democratic than the two other CDs discussed above. The partisan lean, again according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, is 73.6D – 24.4R so there is little doubt the Democrats will hold the seat.

A total of 19 Democrats have declared for the special election along with four Republicans and six Independents. The latter category includes George Foreman IV, son of the famous late professional heavyweight boxer George Foreman. The free-for-all primary will almost assuredly lead to a runoff election because no contender is likely to obtain majority support on the initial vote within such a large candidate field.

Once it becomes evident that no winner will emerge in the November special election, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule a runoff vote for a time no later than early January. The leading candidates appear to be Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee, former City Councilmember, statewide, and congressional candidate Amanda Edwards, and energy company executive Zoe Cadore.

Already we see candidate action in Tennessee’s 7th District. Unlike the other CDs headed for special elections, the TN-7 seat is strongly Republican. The partisan lean here is 55.1R – 42.1D (Dave’s Redistricting App). Rep. Green was re-elected in November with a 60-38 percent victory margin over former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry (D). He averaged 64.1 percent of the vote in his four general election campaigns.

Democrats look ready to compete for the seat despite what appear to be favorable Republican retention odds. Former Mayor Barry indicates she will consider entering the special election Democratic field. State Rep. Vincent Dixie (D-Nashville) says he is virtually certain to become a candidate. State Rep. Bo Mitchell (D-Nashville) also confirms he is weighing the possibility of becoming a congressional contender.

Two prominent Republicans have already declared they will run for the soon-to-be vacated congressional seat. State General Services Commissioner Matt Van Epps announced he is resigning his cabinet position to enter the congressional field, and Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight is also formulating a congressional campaign. Therefore, it appears we will see competitive special election primaries in both parties.

Gov. Bill Lee (R) will have 10 days to set the special election calendar once Rep. Green officially resigns. The Governor must then calendar the partisan primaries and general election within a period not to exceed 107 days from the time he issues the official call. This means, if Rep. Green resigns on or around Aug. 1, that we would see the primary elections held in late September with the special general in early or mid-November.

The 7th District lies largely in western Tennessee, encompassing parts of the capital city of Nashville and Davidson County. The seat stretches from the northern Tennessee-Kentucky border south to just above Florence, Alabama.

The 7th contains 11 counties and parts of three others. The district’s three largest population centers are Nashville, Clarksville in Montgomery County, and Franklin in Williamson County. President Trump carried TN-7 last November with a 60.4 – 38.1 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris. In 2020, he topped President Joe Biden here, 56.4 – 41.3 percent.

Problems for Both Parties

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 13, 2025

House

It appears that both major political parties have problems to overcome in order to achieve success in the 2026 congressional midterm elections.

Earlier this month, we produced a Political Update that found Democratic voter registration is down in all 31 states that record a voter’s political affiliation (Democrats Down in All States). In comparison, Republican registration under the same time parameters is up as a percentage to the whole in 23 of the 31 states. The Independent, or Non-affiliated option is up in 18 of the party registration state universes.

Since the Democratic downturn appears at least partially related to a reduction in their traditional share of younger and new voters, this is a serious trend that the party leaders must address.

The Republicans, however, also have a potential enthusiasm problem — or perhaps an organizational problem — which could be a warning sign for the 2026 midterm elections.

The Down Ballot political blog mathematicians have been researching the special elections held after the 2024 presidential contest and have illustrated that Republican performance in almost every instance has significantly underperformed the baseline that President Donald Trump set last November.

So far in 2025, there have been 29 special elections for state legislature (27) and the US House of Representatives (2) in 12 states. In two instances, state Senate seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania, Democratic candidates converted traditional GOP districts and seats where, according to The Down Ballot calculations, the Republican candidate underperformed the combined Trump-Kamala Harris total by a net 25 (Iowa) and 16 (Pennsylvania) percentage points.

The mean average Republican underperformance factor in all 29 special election districts is 16.4 percent under Trump’s performance against Harris, and 12.2 percent below his standing against President Joe Biden in 2020.

Earlier this week, on Tuesday, June 10, six state legislative special elections were held — three in Florida, two in Oklahoma, and one in Massachusetts. The result pattern was mixed. In Oklahoma, though in a strongly Democratic district, the Republican nominee, again according to The Down Ballot statisticians, ran a whopping net 50 percentage points behind the combined Trump vs. Harris 2024 recorded vote.

Looking at the other Oklahoma state House special election, the Republican candidate won the seat but fell below the Trump vs. Harris combined percentage by a net 13 points.

Yet, in a Massachusetts state Senate special election, the Republican candidate overperformed, losing the election by just 21 votes, which proved a net five percentage point increase over the 2024 presidential result.

Republican candidates held all three seats the party risked in the June 10 Florida special elections, one in the state Senate and two in the state House. Yet, they again fell below the Trump Republican performance standard, this time by a net nine, 11, and 21 percentage points.

The question that must be asked in reflecting on this data is whether the Republican candidates are underperforming, or is President Trump simply an over-achiever? The answer could be a combination of the two scenarios. What has become clear, however, is that a Trump voter is not necessarily a Republican partisan, and many are not habitual voters. This means a significant number of individuals within the Trump coalition are simply unlikely to participate in a special election even though they come to the polls when the President himself is on the ballot.

Furthermore, it is also unlikely that the Republican special election underperformance is a result of people changing their allegiance as a protest to the Trump Administration. Rather, it is probable that the most prolific reason for the GOP’s lesser 2025 track record is failing to convince enough of their coalition to return to the polls for the irregular and under-publicized elections.

Pertaining to the 2026 congressional midterms, both parties must return to basics in order to energize their coalitions. Democrats must find a solution to their young and new voter problem, while Republicans must develop better messaging to convince the casual Trump voter to cast a ballot to help their President’s allies.

House, Governor, City & State Wrap up

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 12, 2025

House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

VA-11 — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for Sept. 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention.

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

CO-3 — Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

GA-13 — State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 — Saying the 85-year-old longest-serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer. Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8 — Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

WA-9 — Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Governor

Arizona — A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (May 23-25; 1,147 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Robson, 57-25 percent.

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (May 12-16; 1,026 registered Arizona voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38 percent, and Robson by a similar 41-39 percent count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut — In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida — Former Rep. David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column.

This week, Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa — While most political observers are watching whether state Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine — A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (May 12-26; 840 likely Maine voters; 325 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33 percent preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24 percent. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20 percent while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13 percent support. King is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Pingree is Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

South Carolina — Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

City & State

Detroit — According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (May 27-29; 500 likely Detroit mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8 percent advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 5.

New Orleans — A JMC Analytics poll (May 27-28; 500 likely New Orleans mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open Oct. 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23 percent, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on Oct. 11, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 15 runoff election.