Category Archives: Governor

Collins vs. Mills in Maine? Potential Senate Challenger to Lindsey Graham; Lara Trump Destroys Sen. Tillis in New Poll; Tenn. Gov Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 5, 2024

Senate

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R)

Maine: Collins vs. Mills? — Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) did not close the door on a 2026 challenge to Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) when asked about the possibility late last week, but other comments and circumstances suggest that she is unlikely to launch such a campaign. In any event, expect the Democrats to field a strong candidate against Sen. Collins even if they fail to entice Gov. Mills into running.

As an aside, the governor was actually laudatory in a comment about Sen. Collins becoming the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Gov. Mills stated that she is “pleased” Collins will have her new position and termed it as “an asset for the State of Maine.” These are not quite the comments one might expect from a future political opponent.

South Carolina: Potential Challenger to Sen. Graham — Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who in November was just re-elected to his fifth term in the US House, is confirming reports that he is considering a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham or entering what will be an open race for governor. In the latter race, incumbent Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to seek a third full term.

Both races would be considered uphill. While Rep. Norman is more conservative than Sen. Graham, the latter man has a strong relationship with President-Elect Donald Trump. Therefore, what might normally be considered a Trump endorsement for Norman may not materialize in this case. For governor, the potential leading candidate is two-term Attorney General Alan Wilson (R), son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale). Another reported potential gubernatorial candidate is Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

North Carolina: Lara Trump Destroys Sen. Tillis in New Poll — The Victory Insights data organization surveyed the North Carolina electorate about the upcoming 2026 US Senate race, and a Republican primary battle between Sen. Thom Tillis and Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump would break decidedly toward the challenger. In the general election, both Sen. Tillis and Lara Trump would each trail outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper (D) by one percentage point according to the VI data.

Victory Insights (Nov. 26-27 & 29; 800 registered North Carolina voters; interactive voice response system & text) finds that among an undisclosed sample of Republican primary voters, Trump, a native of North Carolina, would easily defeat Sen. Tillis in the GOP primary by a whopping 64-11 percent count. At this point, there is no indication that she would run, but this poll is certainly a warning sign for Sen. Tillis.

Governor

Tennessee: Rep. Burchett Considering Gov Race — Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) is another of the state chief executives who is ineligible to seek re-election, thereby the Volunteer State will also feature an open governor’s campaign. Even before the 2024 election, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) made clear his intention to run for governor. Now, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) is also confirming that he, too, is considering a run for the state’s top job.

We are sure to see crowded open seat gubernatorial primaries in both parties around the country in 2026. It already appears that Tennessee will certainly feature a hot contest to succeed Gov. Lee.

Petronis In Lead to Replace Resigned Rep. Gaetz; FL-6 State Senator in Lead; New York Rep. Torres Considers Challenging NY Gov. Hochul

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 2, 2024

House

Florida state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R)

FL-1: Petronis Coalescing Support — State CFO Jimmy Petronis (R), though not a resident of Congressional District 1, is quickly becoming the man to beat in the Jan. 28 Republican special primary election to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R). Already with President-Elect Donald Trump’s endorsement, Sen. Rick Scott (R) now joins the Petronis backers. State Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola), businessman Keith Gross, and former state Rep. Frank White have all dropped out of the race and endorsed Petronis.

While 13 other Republicans are still on the ballot, Petronis is fast becoming the clear favorite. The special general election is scheduled for April 1. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as the safest seat in the state at R+38.

FL-6: State Senator is Leading Congressional Candidate — President-Elect Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) have already chosen their preferred candidate to replace outgoing Florida Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Waltz has been chosen as Trump’s National Security Advisor and announced that he will resign his seat on Jan. 20, the day the president-elect is sworn into office for a non-consecutive second term.

With those endorsements, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) is the clear early favorite, though seven other Republicans, including two former local elected officials and Rep. Waltz’s district director, are also announced candidates.

Because of the appointment notice, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was able to combine the state’s two special congressional elections in one cycle (primary Jan. 28; special general, April 1).

Governor

New York: Rep. Torres Considering Gov Race — Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) is confirming reports that he is considering challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in the 2026 Democratic gubernatorial primary. Torres, a staunch defender of Israel, also says he would consider entering the crowded 2025 New York City mayor’s race but the governor’s challenge, he reiterates, is “more appealing.”

Gov. Hochul, who ascended to the governor’s office from her elected post as lieutenant governor when then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned, defeated New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) 67-19-13 percent in the 2022 Democratic primary. She won the general election with an underwhelming 53-47 percent margin over then-Rep. Lee Zeldin (R).

Of all 50 states, President-Elect Trump’s performance improved over his 2020 showing in New York by the most in the country, a net 11.4 percentage points. Therefore, the state could potentially become more competitive in future elections.

Florida:
A Political Beehive of Activity

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2024

Florida’s Political Landscape

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fort Walton Beach)

With Florida’s two impending congressional special elections and a US senator to choose, the Sunshine State will dominate electoral politics in the coming weeks.

To begin, the situation surrounding ex-US Rep. Matt Gaetz’s vacant congressional district has been resolved, as has apparently the former congressman’s political future. Over the weekend, Gaetz, President-Elect Donald Trump’s nominee for US Attorney General who withdrew from consideration, because the Senate would obviously not confirm him; instead he declared that he will enter the open 2026 campaign for Florida governor. Incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. As part of the announcement, Gaetz reiterated that he will not take the oath of office for a new congressional term on Jan. 3.

Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) is President-Elect Trump’s choice for National Security Advisor. Since this position does not require Senate confirmation, Waltz can leave Congress and his 6th District and move to the White House immediately after Trump takes the oath of office Jan. 20 for his second non-consecutive term.

Once Sen. Marco Rubio (R) is confirmed as the nation’s new Secretary of State, Gov. DeSantis will then choose an individual to replace the departed incumbent. Whoever the governor selects must be a strong fundraiser. Not only will the new senator run in 2026 to fill the unexpired portion of the current term, he or she will have to run again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term.

After withdrawing as Trump’s AG nominee, there was speculation that Gaetz would instead return to the House, since his resignation was from the current Congress and not the future one. In the 2024 election, Gaetz was re-elected to a fifth term with 66 percent of the vote. He has now closed the door for such an option.

Gov. DeSantis has already set the special election to fill the vacant 1st District seat. The partisan primaries will be held Jan. 28 with the special general on April 1. Under Florida law, this was the quickest time frame in which to fill the vacancy.

Therefore, the Republican majority will be a seat down for the first quarter of 2025, and possibly as many as three depending upon when Waltz and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), the President-Elect’s nominee as US Ambassador to the United Nations, resign their seats.

Candidates wasted no time in coming forward for the open Gaetz 1st District seat. Previously announced were state representatives Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). Virtually overnight, another dozen Republicans, three Democrats, and two Independents quickly declared their candidacies.

Among them are retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock who challenged Rep. Gaetz in the ’24 Republican primary but attracted only 27 percent support, and businessman Keith Gross who opposed Sen. Rick Scott in this year’s GOP primary but recorded only nine percent of the statewide Republican primary vote.

Because there is a date certain as to when the 6th District seat will be vacant, Gov. DeSantis is able to use the same schedule that he announced late last week to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz in the state’s 1st District. Like in District 1, the special primary will be held on January 28th with the special general tagged for April 1st. Candidate filing will close on December 6th. Before becoming Governor, the District 6 constituency three times elected Mr. DeSantis as their Representative.

The candidate qualifying period ends on Dec. 6. Gov. DeSantis is clearly looking toward his Florida cabinet members as potential Senate replacement choices. A great many political parts are being set in motion.

The timing of the Waltz resignation might be intriguing considering the razor-thin House Republican majority. If both California Reps. John Duarte (R-Modesto) and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) lose their seats in the final two uncalled House races from extended political overtime, the party division in the House will rest at 219R – 215D along with the vacant FL-1 seat. Once Waltz and Stefanik depart, it would temporarily reduce to 217R – 215D.

Therefore, depending upon the legislative strategy the new White House and Republican leadership want to employ early in the session, we may see a delay in the Waltz resignation if his vote is needed to pass a key Trump agenda element. The Stefanik resignation will be later and largely based upon her Senate confirmation schedule.

Whatever happens, Florida has become a key political activity epicenter.

Pennsylvania Recount Controversy Intensifies; House Recount Status in Iowa, Ohio; Rep. Sherrill Announces for Governor in New Jersey

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024

Senate

David McCormick (R)

Pennsylvania: Recount Controversy Intensifies — The Pennsylvania Senate race continues to generate controversy. Democratic officials in Bucks, Center, Delaware, and Philadelphia counties are openly defying a state Supreme Court order to not count ballots that fail to have proper documentation. Republicans have already filed 12 lawsuits in localities to stop the practice of adding what the state Supreme Court has already reaffirmed are illegal ballots. The recount is getting underway and different news outlets are reporting different vote spreads. The range for Republican David McCormick over Democrat Sen. Bob Casey Jr. stretches from an approximate 29,000-plus to 17,000-plus votes.

In the end, the Senate itself will be the final arbiter over seating new senators. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), citing the aforementioned allowance of the already defined illegal ballots, is calling upon the senators to reject seating Casey should the recount push him to the forefront. Expect the controversy to drag on at least until the Thanksgiving holiday.

House

IA-1: Another Pending Recount — Eastern Iowa election officials are dealing with congressional candidate Christina Bohannan’s (D) request for a recount of the Iowa 1st District results that find Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) projected as an 801-vote winner. It is unlikely that a recount will drastically change such a margin, but the congresswoman is no stranger to close elections resulting in recounts. She first won the seat in 2020 with a six-vote margin. The Iowa election certification deadline is Dec. 2, so we will likely see final numbers at that time.

OH-9: Recount Possible — Election officials in the eight counties that comprise Ohio’s 9th Congressional District anchored in the city of Toledo continue to determine which provisional and remaining absentee ballots will be added to the aggregate count. The county officials are supposed to present final numbers by today, Wednesday, Nov. 20. If the official candidate totals are within a half-percent, Ohio’s secretary of state will conduct a recount.

The unofficial totals find Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) leading state Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova Township) by 1,193 votes from a total of 366,062 ballots cast. The current margin is just 0.3 percent, which would be within the range of a mandated recount. Rep. Kaptur has already declared victory.

Governor

New Jersey: Rep. Sherrill Announces 2025 Candidacy — As she promised she would do after the 2024 general election, Garden State Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) officially announced her gubernatorial candidacy in the New Jersey open 2025 campaign.

Already in the Democratic primary are Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Stephen Fulop, Montclair Mayor Stephen Spiller, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. Since the New Jersey elections are held in the odd-numbered years, neither House member will have to risk his or her seat to run for governor.

For the Republicans, 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli, who held Gov. Phil Murphy (D) to a close 51-48 percent victory is running again as is state Sen. John Bramnick (R-Plainfield), ex-state Sen. Ed Durr, and radio talk show host Bill Spadea.

Kamala for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 18, 2024

Governor

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Rumors abound in California that key Kamala Harris supporters will attempt to convince her to run for governor in 2026 when the seat next comes open. Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), a Harris political ally, is ineligible to seek a third term.

The idea is reminiscent of Richard Nixon’s move in 1962 after he lost the 1960 presidential election to John F. Kennedy. Like Harris, Nixon had been elected as a US senator from California and then vice president under Dwight Eisenhower in 1956. Ten years earlier, Nixon was elected to the House of Representatives from a southern California congressional seat.

Nixon’s gubernatorial bid failed. He would lose to then-Gov. Pat Brown, father of future governor and presidential candidate Jerry Brown, by a 52-47 percent majority. Though Nixon carried California against Kennedy, he did so with a bare 50.1 – 49.5 percent margin, meaning a spread of 35,623 votes from a total voting universe of 6.48 million ballots. Therefore, the idea of Nixon running for governor after losing the presidential race was iffy at best.

In those days, however, California was a competitive political state, and a Republican candidate could win a statewide election. Ronald Reagan would prove such four years later as he unseated Gov. Brown with a landslide 58-42 percent election that translated into an almost one million vote spread win for the actor turned politician who was of course a future president. In that election, Reagan won 55 of the state’s 58 counties.

The situation for Harris would be different. In the 2024 election, she carried California over President-Elect Trump with a 58.7 – 38.2 percent vote split, far superior to Nixon’s tight victory margin.

In her lone Senate race, 2016, she captured almost 62 percent of the vote against then-Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Orange County) in a double-Democratic general election. In her two successful races for the job of California Attorney General, Harris recorded victory percentages of 57.5 and 46.0 percent. The latter contest, in 2010, proved only a half-point win for Harris, but that was her first statewide run and California was more politically competitive during that period than today.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) are already announced gubernatorial candidates. Former State Controller Betty Yee (D) and ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) are also formally announced candidates. In the state’s top-two primary system, it is possible that two Democrats could again advance into the general election.

Therefore, Harris placing first in a multi-candidate jungle primary election would likely be the projected outcome, thus putting her in a strong position for the general election.

As Senator-Elect Adam Schiff (D) surmised in his statewide race, it would be to her benefit to draw a Republican opponent in the general election rather than another accomplished Democrat.

Though Republicans are far from being competitive enough to win a California statewide general election, their cumulative percentages in 2024 were an improvement over recent election cycles. Therefore, there is a greater possibility that the California GOP has enough strength to qualify a well-known general election finalist in 2026 as former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) was able to do in the ’24 open US Senate campaign.

While it remains unclear as to whether Kamala Harris will attempt a political comeback after her decisive national loss, returning to California to compete in an open 2026 governor’s race would be a logical place to make such a move should she so decide.

Conflicting Michigan Senate Polls; Fischer Drops in Nebraska Senate Poll; A Dead Heat in CO-8; Governor’s Race Neck-and-Neck in NH

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 7, 2024

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

Michigan: Conflicting Poll Results — Two polling firms reported results late last week from their latest polls of the Michigan electorate. The surveys were conducted during the same time interval but arrived at distinctly different conclusions. The Mitchell Research & Communications firm, polling for the Michigan Information & Research Service (Sept. 30; 709 likely Michigan voters), sees Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) with a five-point cushion, 49-44 percent. Simultaneously, the Trafalgar Group was also in the field (Sept. 28-30; 1,086 likely Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) but sees the two candidates tied at 47 percent apiece.

This is a good example how competing sampling and data weighting methodologies can produce significantly different results even when simultaneously testing the same campaign. Both Mitchell and Trafalgar have significant experience polling the Michigan electorate, so we will have to wait until election day to see which system had the more accurate data.

Nebraska: Fischer Drops Behind — We see yet another poll that finds Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in political trouble opposite Independent Dan Osborn, who now has united support from the Nebraska Democrat establishment. The new Bullfinch Group poll (for the Independent Center; Sept. 27-Oct. 1; 400 likely Nebraska voters; live interview) is the fifth consecutive publicly released survey that finds the race falling within the margin of error.

The Bullfinch poll is the second to project a lead for Osborn, 47-42 percent in this case. The 400-size sample is small for a three-congressional district state, so the error factor is high. Regardless of such, the data is consistently showing that the Nebraska race, even with no Democratic candidate, is surprisingly close.

House

CO-8: Dead Heat Poll Result — The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission in 2021 drew the state’s newly awarded 8th Congressional District, a seat that lies north and northeast of Denver and includes some of the city’s bedroom communities, as a political toss-up. The latest US House survey suggests that the electorate is performing as intended.

Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper and two Denver television stations (Sept. 29-Oct. 1; 525 likely CO-8 voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) and state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) falling into a flat tie, 44-44 percent.

In 2022, Caraveo won the seat in a plurality victory of less than one percentage point, but President Joe Biden carried the domain in 2020 with a 4.6 percent margin. It appears certain that we will see another photo finish in the current election.

Governor

New Hampshire: Ayotte Leads Again — After the most recent public poll, a mid-September release from the University of New Hampshire, found Democratic former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig leading ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) by one percentage point, the survey result released late last week finds Ayotte re-taking the polling lead.

The new St. Anselm College poll (Oct. 1-2; 2,104 likely New Hampshire voters; online) projects a three-point lead for Ayotte, 47-44 percent, in the nation’s only seriously competitive governor’s campaign. Regardless of who is leading in which poll, both data points suggest a very close race and a result within the polling margin of error. Therefore, the most reasonable current conclusion is that both candidates have a chance to win this political contest.

A negative point for Ayotte, however, is that former President Donald Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by seven points in this same survey. Therefore, the top of the ticket result, which largely defines the turnout model, will probably favor the Democrats even with the partisan registration figures now slightly favoring Republicans.

Moreno Records First Lead in Ohio Senate Race; A Dead Heat in VA-7; In Governors’ Races, Indiana Stays Close, Stein Pulling Away in NC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 30, 2024

Senate

Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno (R)

Ohio: Moreno Records First Lead — RMG Research went into the Ohio field with a flash poll (Sept. 18-20; 781 likely Ohio voters; online) and for the first time found Republican challenger Bernie Moreno (R) leading Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). The ballot test posted Moreno to a 47-45 percent edge, and 48-46 percent when respondents who said they are leaning to one candidate or the other were added to the decided total.

Though RMG has produced some questionable recent data, the current Ohio Senate race progression suggests that the overall trend is moving in Moreno’s direction. The three September polls prior to the RMG data release found Sen. Brown’s margin to be 1, 3, and 2 points; therefore, this race is moving toward pure toss-up range.

House

VA-7: Another Dead-Heat Poll — Despite a huge 7:1 advantage in fundraising through the latest published Federal Election Commission campaign finance report (June 30), retired Army Col. Eugene Vindman (D) has not pulled away from Republican Iraq/Afghan War veteran Derrick Anderson (R) in their battle for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. The new Ragnar Research Partners survey for the Anderson campaign (Sept. 14-17; 400 likely VA-7 voters; live interview) finds the two candidates locked in a dead-heat 43-43 percent tie. In August, the Ragnar data found the two contenders separated by only a 42-41 percent spread in Vindman’s favor.

The 7th District is one of the few competitive open seats in the country. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+2. The Down Ballot research organization ranks the seat as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) chose not to seek re-election in order to concentrate on a 2025 open race for governor.

Governor

Indiana: Closer Than Expected — The Republicans strength in the Hoosier State suggested that this year’s open governor’s race would not be particularly close. It still may end that way, but a new GBAO survey, conducted for the Democratic Governors Association (Sept. 19-22; 600 likely Indiana voters; live interview & text) currently finds a close ballot test result.

Despite former President Donald Trump leading the presidential race by 10 percentage points according to this Indiana poll, Sen. Mike Braun (R) maintains only a tepid advantage over former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick (D), 44-41 percent. The poll suggests that Sen. Braun is weak among Republicans, garnering only 80 percent support within his own party. McCormick, according to this data, also has the advantage with Independents by a 42-32 percent clip.

The previously released survey, from Emerson College (Sept. 12-13; 1,000 likely Indiana voters; multiple sampling techniques) found Sen. Braun holding a much more substantial 11-point lead, 45-34 percent.

North Carolina: Stein Pulling Away — Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson’s recent highly publicized controversy pertaining to past comments and actions is taking its toll. Attorney General Josh Stein (D) is now pulling away from Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in what was once a close race.

A series of four polls from Emerson College, Victory Insights, the New York Times/Siena College, and Marist College, all conducted between Sept. 15-24, with sample sizes ranging from 600 to 1,348, projects Stein as leading the governor’s race by 8, 5, 10, and 11 points, consecutively. As Robinson’s problems continue to mount, the race moves toward Stein clinching victory. Expect the Democrats to retain control of the Tar Heel State governor’s mansion. Two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.