Category Archives: Governor

Another Sanford Comeback?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 7, 2025

Governor

Former South Carolina Governor and ex-Rep. Mark Sanford (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Some political figures seem to never go away. The Down Ballot political blog is reporting that former South Carolina Governor and ex-Rep. Mark Sanford (R) may return for another campaign.

Sanford who concluded his time as Governor in disgrace pertaining to an extramarital affair with an Argentinian woman in 2011, only to return to win a US House special election in 2013 for a seat that he had previously held before losing a renomination primary in 2018, says he may attempt yet another political comeback.

Sanford said Wednesday that he is considering again running for Governor when the post comes open in 2026. Gov. Henry McMaster (R), now the longest-serving chief executive in state history, is ineligible to seek a third full term next year. Other Republicans considering running for Governor are Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, Attorney General Alan Wilson, and Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

The Palmetto State promises to be an interesting political domain in 2026. South Carolina will host its first open gubernatorial race since 2010 when then-state Rep. Nikki Haley succeeded Sanford. In that crowded race for Governor, Haley defeated then-Attorney General McMaster, then-Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, and then-Congressman Gresham Barrett. She out-polled state Sen. Vincent Shaheen (D) in the general election.

In 2014, Gov. Haley was easily re-elected, and McMaster returned to state office in winning the Lieutenant Governor’s post. He would then ascend to the Governorship in 2017 when Haley was appointed US Ambassador to the United Nations in the first Trump Administration. Gov. McMaster would win two terms in his own right, in 2018 and 2022.

Should Sanford enter the 2026 race, a chaotic campaign would likely ensue involving veteran political figures. Lt. Gov. Evette has been in office since 2019 and AG Wilson, son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale/Aiken), has held his post since the beginning of 2011. Rep. Mace was elected to the House in 2020, after serving a term in the state House of Representatives and running for the US Senate in 2014.

Therefore, Sanford again appearing on the political stage in no way suggests that he would have an easy time securing another term as Governor.

After leaving the Governorship under a scandal cloud in 2011 Sanford was able to return to the US House, an institution where he originally served from 1995-2001. He won a 2013 special election to his former 1st Congressional District when then-Rep. Tim Scott (R) was appointed to the US Senate to replace resigned Sen. Jim DeMint (R).

During his return tenure in the House, Sanford became a vocal critic of then-President Donald Trump, which ultimately caused him to lose renomination in 2018. State Rep. Katie Arrington defeated Sanford in that year’s Republican primary, but largely due to a near fatal auto accident that almost cost her life, she would lose the general election to Democrat Joe Cunningham who would then lose his 2020 re-election race to current Congresswoman Mace. In 2022, Cunningham won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination but lost to Gov. McMaster, 58-41 percent.

The state could also feature another interesting statewide campaign. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) is running for a fifth term but could face significant primary opposition. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) continues to confirm that he is considering launching such a challenge.

While Sen. Graham would be favored for renomination, Rep. Norman, with his backing from the South Carolina GOP’s strongly conservative base, would be a formidable opponent.

In 2020, Sen. Graham was in a difficult general election battle with Democrat Jaime Harrison who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Harrison raised more than $130 million in his race against Sen. Graham, and the contest transformed into a virtual national campaign. Though significantly outspent and facing tight polls, the Senator prevailed with a substantial 54-44 percent re-election victory margin.

While the Palmetto State political scene has been quiet since the last Graham election, it appears that the 2026 cycle will produce political fireworks that will again attract substantial national attention.

Michigan Rep. James’ Crushing Lead

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 4, 2025

Governor

Michigan Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills)

Should two-term Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) decide to enter the open Michigan Governor’s race, a new poll finds that he would begin as an overwhelming favorite for the Republican nomination.

For the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and open Senate race in the same election cycle. Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R), who fell just 19,006 votes (three-tenths of one percent) short of defeating Rep. Elissa Slotkin in the 2024 open Senate race, is sending signals that he would like to try again in 2026. If so, he should be a lock to win the party nomination.

Before winning two House races in 2022 and 2024, Rep. James had lost two close Senate races. In 2018, he surprised the entire political world by finishing within 6.5 percentage points of upsetting veteran Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) in what was not viewed as a race with close potential. Two years later, James did even better, closing the gap with now-retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D) to 1.7 percent.

Post-redistricting in 2022, James defeated by half a percentage point former Macomb County prosecutor and ex-judge Carl Marlinga (D) in a Detroit suburban congressional district that favored the Democrats. He increased his victory percentage, again against Marlinga, to 6.1 percentage points in the 2024 re-election campaign.

President Donald Trump, who carried Michigan by just over 80,000 votes in November, looks to have breathed new life into a state Republican Party, which hadn’t seen a statewide victory here since Trump upset Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The new On-Message survey conducted for the Harbor Strategic Public Affairs company (Jan. 17-19; 1,000 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; text to web) yields very good news for Rep. James. He posts a commanding 46-6-4-3-1 percent advantage over state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Porter Township), former Attorney General Mike Cox, 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kevin Rinke, and ex-state House Speaker Tom Leonard, respectively. Of this group, Cox has been the most active potential candidate to date.

The Republican downside of Rep. James running statewide is that his politically marginal 10th Congressional District could become the Democrats’ top national conversion opportunity. Marlinga is making moves to run for a third time, but the Democratic leadership will likely look for a candidate whom they perceive would be stronger since the former judge was a weak fundraiser and lost two consecutive races in a winnable district.

Furthermore, the GOP would likely not have as viable a candidate as Rep. James in the party’s 2026 attempt to hold the toss-up CD.

Conversely, the Governor’s race features interesting Republican possibilities. Toward the end of last year, three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan surprisingly announced that he would enter the open Governor’s race (incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term) and would do so as an Independent candidate. Though the mayoral campaigns are nonpartisan because party affiliation is not listed on the ballot, it was clear that Duggan associated himself with the Democrats. Therefore, announcing his gubernatorial bid as an Independent came as a surprise.

As a three-term citywide incumbent from the state’s largest municipality, Duggan will be a formidable gubernatorial candidate and has a chance to make this 2026 Michigan political contest a legitimate three-way race.

A strong Duggan performance could allow a credible Republican candidate such as James to win the statewide race with only plurality support. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who comes from the left-wing faction of the Democratic Party, has also announced her gubernatorial candidacy and is considered the favorite for the nomination at least at this early juncture.

Duggan, portraying himself as a more centrist candidate, could attract significant Democratic and Democratic-leaning Independent support, which is clearly his strategic objective, thus weakening the party’s prospects because their voters would be split.

Therefore, such a setup becomes much more enticing to a prospective Republican candidate who could unite the GOP for the general election. Rep. James certainly would have such ability.

At this point, the Congressman has not committed himself to running statewide, but polling such as this, and seeing his 77:6 percent positive favorability index from the OnMessage survey sample, is certainly another encouraging point.

The OnMessage data provides even more evidence that Michigan will be one of the top political states in the 2026 election cycle. Expect to see many political stories coming from this domain throughout the next two years.

Mississippi’s Sen. Hyde-Smith Favored for Re-Election; DSSC & Primaries; Fine Likely to Replace Waltz in Fla.; A GA-9 Challenge; Conn., NM Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 3, 2025

Senate

Mississippi Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Mississippi — Ty Pinkins, the 2024 Senate nominee against Sen. Roger Wicker (R) who received 37.2 percent of the vote, says he will challenge Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) in 2026. Sen. Hyde-Smith was appointed to the chamber when Sen. Thad Cochran (R) resigned due to health issues. She then defeated former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Congressman Mike Espy (D) in the 2018 special election, and won a full term, again against Espy, in 2020 with a 54-44 percent vote spread. The Senator has announced for a second full term next year and will be the favorite to win re-election.

DSCC — At a fundraising event late this week, new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) broadly hinted that the organization would not back away from getting involved in primaries. She made specific references to targeted contests in Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina. Democrats expect to mount strong challenges against Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), in addition to campaigning to hold their newly open Michigan seat.

House

Florida State Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne)

FL-6 — Though not residing in Florida’s vacant 6th District, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) topped two GOP opponents with 83 percent support to win the special Republican primary to replace resigned Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Waltz left the House to become President Trump’s National Security Advisor.

Sen. Fine, like Jimmy Patronis in the open 1st District, had the support of President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 6th District as R+28, so Sen. Fine becomes a definitive favorite to claim the seat in the April 1 special general election.

CO-8 — Freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Westminster) has already drawn a Democratic opponent in what will be another very competitive congressional race in northern Colorado’s 8th District. The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew this CD to be contested in every election, and so far it has performed as designed. Democrat Yadira Caraveo represented the seat in its initial term, only to fall to Evans in the 2024 election.

State Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) announced this week that he will enter the 2026 congressional race thus attempting to limit Rep. Evans to a one-term career. This contest will be a top target 2026 campaign.

GA-9 — Three-term US Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Athens) has drawn a significant primary challenger. Gainesville Mayor Sam Couvillion announced that he will challenge Rep. Clyde in the 2026 Republican primary.

Clyde, a Freedom Caucus member and one of the more conservative Representatives, has fared well in nomination contests. In his first run back in 2020, Clyde won a GOP runoff with 56 percent of the vote. He defeated four Republicans in 2022 with just over 74 percent and was unopposed for renomination in 2024. The Congressman will remain a heavy favorite for renomination in 2026.

Governor

Connecticut — New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart (R) has filed a 2026 gubernatorial campaign committee. She promises to make a formal announcement by the end of this month, but it is a virtual certainty that she will run. Gov. Ned Lamont (D), who is eligible to run for a third term, says he will make a decision about 2026 after the legislative session ends in June.

New Mexico — Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), just re-elected in November, says he will not run for Governor in 2026. The Heinrich decision makes former Interior Secretary and ex-Rep. Deb Haaland the undisputed front-runner for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Haaland is making moves toward entering the race but has not yet officially announced her candidacy.

Virginia: The co/efficient data group released their latest Virginia poll (Jan. 18-20; 867 likely 2025 Virginia general election voters; live interview & text) and again finds a toss-up open 2025 gubernatorial race between Democratic former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Both appear to be presumptive nominees of their party at this early point in the election cycle. According to the co/efficient data, Spanberger and Earle-Sears would each command 40 percent support.

Ramaswamy Up Big in Ohio

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 31, 2025

Governor

Republican Vivek Ramaswamy / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Surprising new data was just released regarding the open Ohio Governor’s race, thus giving more credibility to Vivek Ramaswamy’s proposed campaign.

A late January Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey of the Ohio Republican electorate (Jan. 26-27; 600 likely Ohio 2026 Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees businessman and former presidential candidate Ramaswamy jumping out to a huge Republican primary lead.

Ramaswamy just resigned from President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where he was serving as co-chair with Elon Musk, in order to return to Ohio with the reported intent of embarking on a gubernatorial campaign.

In the race for what will be an open Governor’s position, Ramaswamy tops Attorney General Dave Yost and state Treasurer Robert Sprague by a 52-18-2 percent margin, respectively, according to the Fabrizio Lee results.

The Governor’s race has been at the heart of the Ohio political spectrum and figured prominently in the selection of a Senator to replace Vice President J.D. Vance.

Gov. Mike DeWine chose Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) for the Senate seat, though it apparently took some convincing before he accepted the position. Husted had been planning for years to run for Governor when DeWine’s final term comes to an end. Therefore, the 2026 election looked to begin with a Republican primary battle between Husted and Yost, which was expected to be hard fought and potentially divisive.

The open Senate seat drastically changed the picture. With Sen. Husted having to run to fill the balance of the current term in 2026, and then for a full term in 2028, he is out of the Governor’s race. This gave AG Yost and State Treasurer Robert Sprague the opportunity of battling in the GOP primary for the right to succeed Gov. DeWine as the party nominee.

The Ramaswamy potential entry changes the political outlook yet again, especially with this new data posting him to a very large and surprising lead. Independently wealthy, Ramaswamy will have as much money as he needs to run a strong campaign. Therefore, we can expect an intense GOP primary battle.

At this point, the only Democrat to so far announce her gubernatorial candidacy is former Ohio Health Department director and physician Amy Acton.

It is likely others will soon follow. Those Democrats mentioned as potential statewide contenders are the mayors of Ohio’s three largest cities: Andy Ginther in Columbus, Cleveland’s Justin Bibb, and Cincinnati chief executive Aftab Pureval. State Supreme Court Justice and ex-Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and ex-Congressman and 2022 US Senate candidate Tim Ryan are also frequently mentioned as possible gubernatorial candidates.

Though Ohio is voting more Republican in recent elections – President Trump carried the state three times with an average win margin of 9.1 percent and Ohio has now elected two Republican Senators, for example; the Democrats are still expected to make a maximum effort to convert this office in 2026.

The Senate race will obviously also factor into the statewide political picture. The major question surrounds the status of former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) who was defeated for re-election in November. While he has been more closely associated with running again for the Senate since there will now be a special election to fill the balance of the Husted term, there is also some speculation that he could run for Governor.

Sen. Brown had always been viewed as someone who could attract Republican votes even though he is unabashedly liberal. That aura was certainly punctured when he lost to now-Senator Bernie Moreno in November by just over 3.6 percentage points after spending $103 million just through his individual campaign committee. Despite his loss, it is clear that Brown would be the Democrats’ strongest candidate either for the Senate or Governor.

Ohio will again be a major political battleground, and we can expect to see a great deal of activity coming from the Buckeye State throughout the 2026 election cycle.

Tennessee Sen. Blackburn Moving Closer to a Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025

Governor

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Further political developments suggest that Tennessee Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn is serious about running for Governor in 2026, and new polling data indicate that she may enjoy an easy path toward attaining the state house mansion in Nashville.

A new Fabrizio Lee survey of Tennessee Republican primary voters suggests that Sen. Blackburn is off to a fast start in what appears to be her budding gubernatorial campaign. According to the Fabrizio Lee data (Jan. 13-16; 800 likely Tennessee Republican primary voters; live interview and text), Sen. Blackburn would outpace US Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) by a whopping 71-13 percent margin in an early Republican primary poll.

The ballot test margin grows even larger if President Donald Trump would endorse Blackburn. If so, the spread then becomes 78-11 percent. To underscore Sen. Blackburn’s strength against Rep. Rose, she outpolls him even in the Congressman’s own district. In the 6th CD, Sen. Blackburn would top Rose, 55-27 percent.

Additionally, Sen. Blackburn’s favorability index within this Republican voter sample is an overwhelming 82:12 favorable to unfavorable.

Furthermore, Sen. Blackburn’s electoral history is strong. She was re-elected to a second Senatorial term on November 5th with a 64-34 percent margin. In 2018, she won her first statewide campaign in a 55-44 percent victory spread. Prior to running for the Senate, Blackburn served eight terms in the House from western Tennessee’s 7th District. In her eight elections, she averaged 73.9 percent of the vote, reaching or breaking the 70 percent threshold in six of her eight campaigns.

Other House members were reportedly looking at the Governor’s race, but Sen. Blackburn’s intentions are likely to dissuade them from running. In addition to Congressman Rose, Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia), and Mark Green (R-Clarksville) had all been mentioned at one time or another as having an interest in exploring the Governor’s race.

No major potential candidate has officially announced his or her intentions as yet, but Rep. Rose appeared almost certain to run for Governor until Sen. Blackburn began sending signals about her interest. Her Senate campaign airing post-election thank you ads is even further evidence that Blackburn is clearly heading toward a final decision about becoming a gubernatorial candidate.

With polling data such as described, it is probable that Sen. Blackburn will face little in the way of primary opposition in the open Governor’s race; and, in clinching the Republican nomination, she would become the prohibitive favorite to secure the general election.

Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Sen. Blackburn run and win the governorship, she would be able to appoint her own Senate successor since Tennessee is one of 36 states where the Governor can appoint an individual to fill a Senate vacancy.

If Blackburn were to become Governor and obviously resign from the Senate, her appointed federal designee would serve until the 2028 general election. If the individual wins the special election to fill the balance of the term, he or she would next face the voters in 2030 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term.

An Activity-Laden Gubernatorial Week Across the Country

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 27, 2025

Governor

With South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem officially being confirmed for her federal position as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) ascends to the Governorship. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

While political activity is largely quiet in the early 2026 Senate and House races, the same is not true for budding Governors’ campaigns.

First, in South Dakota, with Gov. Kristi Noem officially being confirmed for her federal position as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) ascends to the Governorship and is expected to seek a full term in 2026. Noem was term-limited for the coming election, so a GOP nomination fight has been expected for months.

With Rhoden now the sitting Governor, a major multi-candidate Republican primary may be avoided. At this time, however, it is too early to tell exactly how the state’s politics may unfold. For his part, Rhoden served as Lieutenant Governor for the entirety of Noem’s tenure as Governor, beginning in 2019. Prior to assuming his statewide office, Rhoden served for 16 years in the state legislature.

Late last week in Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) announced that she will seek the Democratic gubernatorial nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). This race will be complicated with the presence of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent. He was elected to his present position three times as a Democrat.

The possibility of splitting the Democratic vote between Duggan and the eventual party nominee could give the eventual Republican nominee the opportunity of winning the statewide vote with just plurality support. Crowded primaries in both major parties are expected to form.

Turning to New Mexico, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), who had been considering making a bid for Governor on the heels of his re-election to a third term, announced last week that he will not enter the race. This likely makes former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland the Democrats’ leading candidate to succeed term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D).

In Ohio, Attorney General David Yost (R) formalized his gubernatorial campaign with a specific announcement late last week, though for months it has been no secret that he would run. With Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, who was thought to be Yost’s main opponent, now an appointed US Senator, the Attorney General’s top GOP competitor may well be former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy who is expected to make a formal announcement this week. State Treasurer Robert Sprague (R) also announced his candidacy earlier this month.

The state’s health care director during COVID, Dr. Amy Acton, has already announced for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, but we can expect additional individuals to ultimately declare their candidacies. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) confirmed last week that she is seriously considering a run for Governor since incumbent Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to succeed himself. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), are also potential Republican gubernatorial candidates. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is also mentioned as a possible contender, but if he is to launch a statewide Republican primary bid it would more likely be against Sen. Lindsey Graham.

As mentioned in our column late last week, Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) is now running “thank you” ads for her Senate victory, which is an apparent move to solidify support for the open 2026 Governor’s race. It was clear that several GOP members of the Tennessee congressional delegation were preparing to run, specifically Rep. John Rose (R-Clarksville) who was scheduled to announce soon after the November election, but such may not materialize.

Sen. Blackburn’s presence in the race, with polls showing she would easily win a gubernatorial primary is suggesting that the twice-elected Senator won’t even draw major opposition. Should she choose to run to succeed term-limited Gov. Bill Lee (R), it appears she would be a lock to win both the Republican primary and general elections.

Gubernatorial Campaigns Projected to Affect US House Balance of Power

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 6, 2024

Governor

Term-limited Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R)

As the new Congress begins, election observers are already contemplating how the many open 2026 Governors’ campaigns might affect the razor-thin US House majority.

Looking toward next year’s election, a total of 36 states will host gubernatorial campaigns. In the 19 places where term limits are in effect, we will see open statewide contests. In many of these developing races, US House members are potential candidates. Therefore, protecting the small GOP majority with a large number of open seats becomes an even more difficult task.

Representatives who could run for an open Governor’s position are already rumored or announced in 10 states: Alabama, Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) opting to seek re-election instead of running for Governor opens the field to replace term-limited Gov. Kay Ivey (R).

It is unlikely that Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Weaver/Gadsen) will risk his role as chairman of the House Armed Services Committee to run for Governor, but he is considered a possible candidate. Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Hoover), chairman of the House Policy Committee, is also a potential gubernatorial contender.

Already, polling is suggesting that Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) is the leading potential candidate to succeed term-limited Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D). Yet we can expect a lively Democratic primary possibly between Reps. Neguse and Jason Crow (D-Aurora). It is doubtful that any Centennial State Republican House member, largely comprised of freshmen, will jump into the open Governor’s campaign.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), being ineligible to seek a third term, leaves a wide-open succession field. The person DeSantis appoints as the new Senator when incumbent Marco Rubio is confirmed as the US Secretary of State may influence who runs for Governor. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the congressional member most often mentioned as having an interest in running for the office. The eventual GOP nominee will have the inside track of winning the next Sunshine State gubernatorial general election.

In Maine, all eyes are on whether Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) will attempt to replace term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D). So far, Golden has not provided any hints about his future political plans.

The odd-year New Jersey open Governor race has already attracted two Democratic House members into the 2025 campaign, Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), who leads in early polling, and Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) who enjoys a big edge in fundraising.

At the end of this term, Henry McMaster (R) will be the longest-serving Governor in South Carolina history but cannot run again to succeed himself. South Carolina has a two-term limit, but McMaster ascended to the office from his post as Lieutenant Governor when then-Gov. Nikki Haley resigned to become US Ambassador to the United Nations and did so during a time frame that still allowed him to run for two full terms.

A crowded open Republican primary field will form and could feature two US House members. Both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) have indicated they are considering gubernatorial bids. Mace has also not quelled speculation that she could challenge Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) as he seeks renomination for a fifth term.

In Tennessee, several Republican House members are considering a bid for Governor but could be effectively blocked should just re-elected Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) continue to make moves suggesting that she will run.

Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia), John Rose (R-Cookeville), and Mark Green (R-Clarksville) have all either indicated they are considering running for Governor or speculation has surrounded them regarding launching such a campaign. Incumbent Republican Bill Lee is ineligible to run for a third term.

While a midterm election cycle typically attracts lower voter interest, 2026 will feature a large number of competitive statewide campaigns. Expect the many open Governors’ races to also ignite a round of political musical chairs in several US House delegations.