Author Archives: Jim Ellis

Unusual NH Presidential Poll; Republican Primary Developing in Montana; VA-7 Candidates Coming Forward; NH Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 17, 2023

President

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

New Hampshire: New Poll; Unique Info — The new Emerson College survey (Aug. 9-11; 837 registered New Hampshire voters; interactive voice response system, text & online) provides new information not seen in any other similar study.

For example, the results find:

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie moving into second place
No candidate but former President Donald Trump landing in double digits
Cornel West’s influence level is confirmed at four percent, which appears to come from President Joe Biden’s vote pool
Businessman Perry Johnson attracting enough support to be recorded on a poll
Former Vice President Mike Pence flirting with last place

It remains to be seen if this survey is an outlier, or if new trends are forming.

House

MT-2: Republican Primary Developing — We reported that Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen (R) filed a congressional exploratory committee in anticipation that Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) will run for the Senate. Now we see State Auditor Troy Downing (R) doing the same.

Both qualify that their interest in the 2nd District seat is present only if Rep. Rosendale foregoes re-election and formally enters the Senate race. Downing has run for Congress before. He entered the 2018 US Senate primary and placed third with 19.1 percent of the vote. Rosendale won the nomination with 33.8 percent, and then lost 50-47 percent to Sen. Jon Tester (D) in the associated general election.

VA-7: GOP Candidates Coming Forward — Political speculation suggesting that Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) will not seek re-election in order to prepare for a 2025 open governor’s race has already encouraged potential Republican candidates to come forward. Several are now testing the political waters for a 2024 run in the politically marginal 7th Congressional District.

Two military veterans — retired Navy SEAL and defense contractor Cameron Hamilton and Iraq War veteran Jon Myers, a retired Marine Corps officer — have both filed congressional campaign committees with the Federal Election Commission. Business consultant Bill Moher and Army veteran Shaliek Tarpley are previously announced Republican candidates.

Should Rep. Spanberger retire, we can expect a very crowded Republican and Democratic primary season. Republicans will likely hold either a nominating convention or what they term as a “firehouse primary” (where only a few polling places are open throughout the sprawling district), while Democrats typically hold a traditional primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates VA-7 as a highly competitive D+2.

Governor

New Hampshire: Ayotte Leads in Early Poll — Former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is starting her campaign for governor with a lead according to a new Emerson College poll (Aug. 9-11; 837 registered New Hampshire voters; interactive voice response system, text & online). According to the results, Ayotte would lead Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) 46-37 percent, and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D) by a larger 47-34 percent span.

The poll did not test the Republican primary. At this point, former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse is opposing Ayotte for the Republican nomination and others are expected to enter. Incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is not seeking a fifth term.

General to Oppose Marjorie Taylor Greene; Montana Candidate Filing; Another Opponent for Wisconsin Rep. Steil; Republican Candidate for Houston Mayoral Race

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 16, 2023

House

Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

GA-14: Retired General to Oppose Rep. Greene — Retired Army Brigadier Gen. Shawn Harris (D) announced that he will enter the Democratic primary to hopefully challenge two-term Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome).

Defeating Rep. Greene in the general election is the longest of shots. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates GA-14 as R+45. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 69.4R – 28.8D. The question as to whether Greene is even vulnerable to a Republican primary challenge remains doubtful. In the 2022 race, the congresswoman was re-nominated with 69.5 percent of the vote with five opponents dividing the remaining 30.5 percent.

MT-2: Republican Files Exploratory Committee in Anticipation — Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen (R) filed a congressional exploratory committee Monday in anticipation that Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) will run for the Senate. Arntzen, who is ineligible to seek a third term in her current statewide position, says she will only enter the US House contest if Rosendale vacates the seat for another statewide race.

Should he depart for the Senate, the 2nd District Republican primary figures to host a very crowded and competitive open primary. Carrying a R+30 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and a 59.8R – 37.9D partisan lean factor that the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate, a succession battle here would be decided in the Republican primary. The 2nd District covers central and eastern Montana and encompasses the cities of Billings, the state’s largest municipality, Great Falls, and the state capital of Helena.

WI-1: Second Democrat Announces Against Rep. Steil — Lorenzo Santos (D), a Racine County Emergency official, joined the Democratic primary with the goal of challenging three-term Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) next year. Already running is former local official Anthony Hammes (D).

This race is beginning to attract attention because of the possibility that the Wisconsin congressional map will be redrawn. If that happens, there is a strong probability the 1st District becomes more Democratic and enhances the possibility that Rep. Steil may opt for a Senate bid. We can expect further action coming from southern Wisconsin as the potential of a district reconfiguration begins to grow.

Cities

Houston: Republican Emerges — Hoping to split the Democratic vote between US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) and veteran state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston), former at-large City Councilman Jack Christie (R) announced that he will now compete in the open mayoral race scheduled for Nov. 7. The structure is a jungle election contest where all 14 declared candidates would appear on the same ballot. If no contender receives 50 percent of the vote in the first election, a runoff will be scheduled between the two top finishers.

Though the field is large, polling suggests that Sen. Whitmire and Rep. Jackson Lee are well ahead of the remaining candidates who comprise the pool. Therefore, Christie’s strategy of coalescing the minority Republican vote and coming from the outside to capture a runoff position could potentially become viable. Incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) is ineligible to run for a third term.

Candidate Finds Joy Again; Dem Explores Challenge to NJ Rep. Kean; Goroff to Challenge in NY-1; Louisiana Governor’s Candidates Set

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2023

House

Attorney and CA-45 candidate Aditya Pai (D)

CA-45: Candidate Returns — A day after attorney Aditya Pai (D) announced that he was leaving the campaign trail because he found “no joy” in his effort, he reversed himself. Now, Pai is back in the race. Three other Democrats are competing, so it is probable that Pai fails to advance from the jungle primary. Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) is the two-term incumbent and is a lock to secure the first general election ballot position.

Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen and attorney Cheyenne Hunt appear to be the leading Democrats. The California jungle primary is held concurrently with Super Tuesday on March 5, 2024.

NJ-7: New Candidate Files Exploratory Committee — Former State Department official Jason Blazakis (D) filed a congressional exploratory committee with the Federal Election Commission for a potential run in New Jersey’s 7th District against GOP freshman Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield). Should Blazakis officially enter the Democratic primary he would have to get past Roselle Park Mayor Joe Signorello and Working Families Party state Director Sue Altman in order to advance into the general election. Another State Department official previously represented the district, former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D), who lost his 2022 re-election campaign to Kean after defeating him in 2020.

New Jersey’s 7th CD covers about one-third of Union County, all of Hunterdon and Warren, and parts of Morris, Somerset, and Sussex counties. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+3. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 51.5R – 46.6D. Rep. Kean will have the edge for re-election, but we can anticipate seeing a competitive campaign develop within the district confines.

NY-1: Democratic Primary Brewing — Late last week, Nancy Goroff, the 2020 NY-1 Democratic nominee who lost to then-Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) 56-44 percent, announced that she will enter the 2024 Democratic primary in hope of challenging freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County). First, however, she will have to overcome a bid from former state Sen. Jim Gaughran, who announced two days before Goroff. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-1 as R+5. Dave’s Redistricting App, however, calculates the partisan lean in the Democrats’ favor at 51.1D – 47.1R.

Governor

Louisiana: 2023 Candidate Filing Closes — The candidate filing period for this year’s Louisiana governor’s race closed on Friday, and 16 candidates filed for the office. The field includes eight Republicans, three Democrats, and five Independents. The jungle primary is scheduled for Oct. 14.

For the Republicans, the battle appears to be among Attorney General Jeff Landry, state Treasurer John Schroder, and former gubernatorial chief of staff Stephen Waguespack. Democrats are coalescing behind former state Department of Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson. It is likely that Wilson and one of the three aforementioned Republicans will advance to a Nov. 18 runoff election. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is ineligible to run for a third term.

Senate Primaries Forming – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 14, 2023

Senate

Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Senate Races: Balance of Power — We conclude our look into the critical Senate primary campaigns by previewing the states alphabetically from Nebraska to Wisconsin. (See Friday’s post:
Senate Primaries Forming — Part 1.)

• Nebraska: Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R) resignation earlier this year led to former Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) being appointed to the seat. The new senator must now run in a special election to fill the balance of the term, and then again in 2026 for a full six-year stint. Sen. Ricketts has already announced that he will run in both elections.

Republicans are safe here in the general election; thus, the primary could become the competitive race. So far, no major challenger has come forward, though rancher Chuck Herbster, who placed only second in the 2022 governor’s primary despite having a Donald Trump endorsement, remains a potential candidate.

Sen. Deb Fischer (R), on the ballot for the regular term, has no opposition to date in either the primary or general elections. Nebraskans will choose their nominees on May 14, 2024.

• Nevada: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) is on the ballot for a second term, and the Republican primary is now becoming crowded. Sam Brown, a disabled Afghan War veteran, is the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s choice and should be viewed as the leading candidate.

Earlier this week, former ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter and retired Air Force officer and director of the Reno Air Aces, Tony Grady, entered the race and could make the Republican primary interesting. The Nevada general election contest could well become a top-tier challenge race. The Silver State primary is scheduled for June 11, 2024.

• Ohio: One of the top three Republican conversion opportunities is the Ohio race featuring Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) run for a fourth term. Republicans have three major contenders: Secretary of State Frank LaRose, state senator and 2022 US Senate candidate Matt Dolan, and businessman Bernie Moreno.

Early polling gives LaRose, who has won a statewide campaign, the advantage. Sen. Dolan, in his 2022 race, came on strong at the end and finished within one percentage point of second place. Moreno, who was also in the 2022 Senate race but withdrew before voting began, has earned Ohio junior Sen. J.D. Vance’s (R) endorsement.

Regardless of who wins the Republican primary, the Buckeye State Senate campaign will remain a top-tier challenge race. The Ohio primary will occur on March 19, 2024.

• Pennsylvania: Little is occurring in the GOP nomination race as Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) rallies his supporters in a quest for a fourth term.

Republicans are confident that 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick (R) will enter the race, and the primary appears his for the taking. McCormick lost the 2022 Republican campaign to Dr. Mehmet Oz by just 950 votes statewide. Assuming he returns, McCormick will begin the general election contest as a decided underdog to Sen. Casey. The Pennsylvania primary will be conducted on April 23, 2024.

• Texas: The Lone Star State Senate contest appears to be the Democrats only shot at developing a competitive challenge race. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) is on the ballot for a third term and must be considered a clear favorite in a state where Democrats still have not won a major statewide campaign in decades. In a presidential year, their task becomes even harder.

The Democratic leadership is backing US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), but he faces a serious challenge from state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio). The senator is the top gun control advocate in the legislature and much closer to the party’s progressive left base than is Rep. Allred.

Additionally, Texas state Senate seats are bigger than congressional districts, so Gutierrez actually represents 150,000 more people than does Rep. Allred.

Allred has raised more than $6 million since his announcement, but now must spend that and more just to win the party nomination. Sen. Cruz will use the primary to force both men further to the left on energy issues, which are so critical to the Texas economy. The Lone Star primary will be held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

• Utah: The big question lingering in the Beehive State is whether Sen. Mitt Romney (R) will run for a second term. The senator says he will make a decision in the fall. If he does run, Romney faces a competitive Republican primary challenge, likely from state House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville).

Sen. Romney has little chance of winning the state nominating convention, so to qualify for the ballot he will need to recruit 28,000 valid petition signatures from around the state. This process would allow him to bypass the party structure and go directly to the primary ballot.

Republicans will hold the seat in the general election, but the political drama comes in the Republican primary where it is not inconceivable that Sen. Romney could lose. The nomination will be decided on June 25, 2024.

• West Virginia: Sen. Joe Manchin (D) continues to waver about seeking re-election. He is again making statements that he could become an Independent or run for president as a minor party nominee. Regardless of his decision, the West Virginia race is the Republicans’ best conversion opportunity. Gov. Jim Justice (R) is an announced candidate in the Republican primary and faces US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town).

The winner, likely Gov. Justice, will be considered the favorite for the general election in what has been former President Donald Trump’s second-best state in the nation during both his 2016 and 2020 election campaigns. With the Club for Growth willing to spend millions to help Mooney from the outside, the Republican primary will be more competitive than one might believe at first glance. The victory odds, however, still favor Gov. Justice. The Republican nomination will be settled on May 14, 2024.

• Wisconsin: The Badger State race is the Republicans’ biggest disappointment to date in terms of candidate recruitment. No one has yet come forward to challenge two-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), and it’s possible that she could run without a serious challenge in what is typically a close state.

Should the congressional districts be redrawn, it is possible that Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) will find that entering the Senate race is his best political option. He would be the Republicans’ strongest contender. The Wisconsin primary is not until Aug. 6, 2024, so time remains for Republicans to right their political ship.

Senate Primaries Forming – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 11, 2023

Senate

Senate Races: Balance of Power — The 2024 US Senate races are critical in determining which party will control the chamber in the next Congress, but before Republicans mount a challenge to the Democratic majority they must first navigate through what, in some cases, could be contentious primaries.

The Democrats have only one legitimate challenge opportunity within the field of 11 Republican defense states — Texas — but here as well, they feature a competitive battle for the party nomination. They are also likely headed to a rousing year-long double-Democratic jungle primary and general election in California and a hotly contested open intra-party battle in Maryland.

The following is a brief synopsis of the primary situations in the states alphabetically from Arizona through Montana. Next, we will cover Nevada through Wisconsin:

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

• Arizona: In this wild-card Senate race that will feature a three-way general election, two of the entries appear set. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) has not yet officially announced that she will seek re-election, but all indications are that she will mount a vigorous campaign. The question remains as to whether she will run as an Independent or the nominee of a minor party, such as the No Labels Party, which has qualified in her state. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) appears as a lock to win the Democratic nomination.

On the Republican side, reports are surfacing the 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is close to announcing her Senate effort. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is already a declared candidate. Early polling suggests that Lake would begin with a significant primary lead.

Though most Republican strategists blanch at another Lake run, it is important to remember that she received 49.6 percent of the vote in the governor’s race. In the three-way Senate contest, 35-38 percent is likely all that’s necessary to win and she has strong base support. The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024.

• California: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) is retiring, and in her wake is a major political battle among three progressive left Democratic House members, Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank). The big question coming from the jungle primary is whether a Republican, coalescing the minority party votes, can capture one of the two general election finalist positions because the Democratic vote will be so badly fractured.

Chances are Reps. Schiff and Porter, probably in that order, advance into what promises to be a contentious and very expensive open US Senate general election campaign. The California jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5.

• Florida: Democrats have yet to find a credible opponent for Sen. Rick Scott (R), but he does have Republican opposition. Businessman Keith Gross, who reportedly has the wherewithal to fund his own campaign but has yet to make a substantial investment, is challenging Sen. Scott for renomination.

Gross may be able to wage a battle against the senator but toppling him for the nomination appears as a bridge too far. Sen. Scott appears in good shape for renomination and re-election. The Florida primary is late, Aug. 20, 2024, so much time remains for a primary contest to take shape.

• Indiana: Sen. Mike Braun (R) is leaving the Senate to run for governor, and Congressman Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) appears to be the prohibitive favorite to succeed him in both the Republican primary and general election. At this point, no strong Republican has emerged, but that could change as we get closer to the Feb. 9, 2024, candidate filing deadline. The Indiana primary is scheduled for May 7, 2024.
Continue reading →

Biden’s Summer Doldrums

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 10, 2023

President

President Joe Biden / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Biden: Downward Trend — It’s the middle of summer, and President Joe Biden apparently has entered a downward trend, at least as far as some key polls are concerned.

The Premise research organization tracks the presidential race every two weeks, and their latest release finds Biden falling behind former President Donald Trump, even on their nationwide ballot test.

The survey (Aug. 2-7; 1,726 US adults; 1,306 self-identified registered voters; via the Premise “smartphone application”; weighted) gives Trump a seven-point lead, 41-34 percent, within the entire adult sampling universe, and 42-38 percent among the self-identified registered voters. The troubling part of this survey from the Biden campaign’s perspective is not so much trailing Trump but posting support numbers only in the 30s – this, for an incumbent president with 100 percent name identification.

Overall, the sampling universe is very pessimistic. The group breaks 17:68 percent on the right direction/wrong track question, President Biden’s job approval is 30:59 percent positive to negative, and 82 percent rates the US economy as either fair or poor. Among Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents, 55 percent believe that the president should not run for re-election.

This poll isn’t the only one that detects Biden losing political luster. The Morning Consult tracking survey (Aug. 4-6; 6,000 US registered voters; online) finds Biden leading Trump on the national ballot test, but only by one percentage point, a very low number for these tracks that generally post Biden to stronger numbers.

In Michigan, Emerson College’s latest survey (Aug. 1-2; 1,121 registered Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Trump forging a 43-41-4 percent lead with Dr. Cornel West on the ballot as the Green Party candidate.

Emerson’s Arizona poll (Aug. 2-4; 1,337 registered Arizona voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Trump holding a one point lead, again with Dr. West attracting four percent support.

Returning to the Premise poll, the data also finds the majority believing that he will continue his campaign even if convicted and sentenced to prison. A total of 70 percent of the respondent sample, led by a 79:21 percent split among Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, believe he would continue the race.

The legal situation would change voter sentiment only if the former chief executive were actually in prison at the time of the election. Here, only 39 percent said they would support him if he were in prison, while 52 percent said they would not. This, even though a majority of the sample (53 percent) believes he is guilty of the charged crimes.

Looking at the length of time the entire court process consumes, including appealing all the way to the Supreme Court if convicted, it is highly unlikely that Trump would enter prison before the election. It is probable that even the trials would be delayed until after the general election is held.

There is increased speculation that for some reason President Biden will end his campaign and the Democrats will be forced to find a new nominee. While this scenario is highly unlikely, the Premise pollsters asked the question as to who the self-identified Democrats and Democrat leaning Independents would support.

While most believe that California Gov. Gavin Newsom is waiting in the wings, he doesn’t fare particularly well within this national polling sample. According to the Premise results, it is Vice President Kamala Harris who tops the field with 21 percent support. Gov. Newsom falls to fourth place with only 10 percent backing, and just ahead of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who posts seven percent.

The second- and third-place finishers are unlikely candidates. This sample would choose former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton second at a 15 percent support level with two-time presidential candidate, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, just behind at 14 percent.

Obviously, polling more than a year before the election and five months ahead of the first primary vote means very little. The numbers vary virtually by the day, but these latest figures do show a significant trend change. Whether this becomes an entrenched pattern remains to be seen.

No Labels Party:
Qualifies in Two More States

No Labels Party website image

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 9, 2023

President

No Labels: Making Inroads — The No Labels Party, which is attempting to bring ideological moderates from the two major parties and the self-identified independent voter under one entity, has qualified for the ballot in two more states.

Nevada and South Dakota will now feature a No Labels Party ballot line, joining Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon. While the number of qualified states is small in relation to the whole country, three of these six states are key swing entities that could well affect the outcome of next year’s presidential campaign.

Let’s look at one particular poll that exemplifies how a minor candidate can influence a hotly contested election. A new Emerson College poll of the Michigan electorate (Aug. 1-2), for example, finds President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump by less than a percentage point. When Green Party candidate Cornel West’s name is added to the questionnaire, Trump takes a two point lead over Biden because West draws four percent support.

The Michigan example will be similar in the states where the presidential election is extremely close. In this case, Dr. West’s presence draws enough left-of-center Michigan voters away from President Biden that would allow former President Trump to take the lead. We would likely see a reversed outcome if the minor party candidate were prone to attract suburban Republican votes.

The No Labels Party is different than others we have seen over the years in that they are well financed and have a national organization. Therefore, the ability to qualify for the ballot in a maximum number of states is greater than any other minor party — including the Green Party — of which Dr. West will be the likely nominee.

Looking at the composition of the No Labels Republican leadership — should they file a presidential candidate (the leaders have not yet committed to doing so) it will be someone more likely to take votes away from Trump rather than Biden. Therefore, when the party leaders and activists from around the country meet in Dallas on April 14-15, it is probable they will choose a disaffected Republican for the presidential slot and a disaffected Democrat as the running mate … if they even decide to file a national candidate slate.

The organization’s co-chairmen, former US senator and 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Lieberman and ex-Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), have said on multiple occasions that they want a ticket comprised of a member from each major party, but again without firmly committing to fielding a presidential ticket.

Turning to the No Labels qualified states, Arizona and Nevada are two of the five entities where flipping from Biden in 2020 to the Republican nominee in 2024 could change the national outcome.

A surprising state that could be in play next year is Alaska. The Last Frontier state changed its election system in the last election and added a Ranked Choice Voting system should no candidate secure majority support.

The addition of a No Labels candidate could make the above scenario real. In the 2020 Alaska special congressional election, Republican candidates cumulatively drew 60 percent of the vote; yet, when RCV went into effect because no one reached 50 percent, a Democratic candidate won the election. Therefore, Alaska should be added to the watch list of swing states that could move toward the Democrats.

Pennsylvania and North Carolina are two of the larger states in the swing category. Pennsylvania went Democratic in 2020, while North Carolina backed the Republican nominee. Both states require a defined number of valid registered voter petition signatures for a candidate under a different party banner to earn a ballot position.

Wisconsin, another state that swung the Democrats’ way but which could certainly rebound in 2024, employs the same requirements for minor party candidates as they do for Republicans and Democrats. Therefore, No Labels would have a strong chance of qualifying in this important swing domain as well.

Should key minor party candidates qualify in each of these aforementioned states – how each break will be critical in determining the 2024 presidential winner – the number of votes they attract, and from which candidate they draw, will be a major factor in how the election turns not only in these particular states but in the nation as a whole.