By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024
Senate
In our second of a three-part series, we examine another set of seven US Senate races that are either competitive, at least to a degree, or where a new senator will succeed an incumbent not seeking re-election. Today, we provide a quick analysis of the campaigns from Minnesota through New Mexico. Tomorrow, we end with the competitive races from Ohio to Wisconsin.
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore
The polls also track Vice President Kamala Harris as under-performing in her VP nominee Tim Walz’s (D) home state. The five September polls and two tracking surveys yield Harris an average six-point lead, well below what one would expect in what is perceived as a non-competitive state. Sen. Klobuchar will win re-election, but possibly not in the landslide proportion that most believed would occur.
Missouri — The Show Me State of Missouri has been voting solidly Republican during the Trump years, and Sen. Josh Hawley (R) should easily win another term. There have, however, been two Democrat polls that project the senator’s lead over attorney and military veteran Lucas Kunce (D) to be just four and five points. The Hawley September average through four public polls is nine percentage points, thus reflecting two other surveys yielding the senator 12- and 15-point advantages.
This polling pattern is not much different than what we saw for Sen. Eric Schmitt (R) when he was running in the open seat two years ago. The average of the closing polls posted Schmitt with a lead right around 11 percentage points. In the actual election, he won with a 13-point margin. Expect a similar result this year for Sen. Hawley.
Montana — If the Republicans are to capture the Senate majority, unseating Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana becomes a must win. At this point, it appears GOP candidate Tim Sheehy (R), a retired Navy SEAL and aerospace business CEO, is well positioned to convert Big Sky Country to the Republican Senate column. If he does, Montana will become the 51st state in the GOP Conference after West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice’s (R) virtually assured win to even the partisan division at 50-50.
Surprisingly, there have been relatively few polls conducted of the Montana Senate race. One reason could be the pollsters have already seen enough to concede the race to Sheehy. From Aug. 20 to the present, we find just four poll results. Sheehy leads in all, and his polling average is seven-plus points over the three-term incumbent. Though Sen. Tester has a major resource advantage, in a small state campaign spending is typically less important than in major population states. Such appears to be the case in Montana.
Nebraska — The Nebraska Senate race featuring two-term incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is a head-scratcher. While appointed Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), who must run to fill the balance of his current term, and former President Donald Trump are leading by double-digits in all polling, Sen. Fischer sees consistent leads of just one point in four consecutive surveys.
The Fischer campaign and the Republican Party campaign apparatus have stepped up their activity and are starting to spend money attacking her opponent, Independent Dan Osborn, who is now a coalition candidate since the Democrat Party is officially backing his effort to topple the senator. In a race where the incumbent has no major party opposition, this race was treated as a virtual unopposed campaign.
Since the Fischer campaign has realized their own candidate’s vulnerability, they are taking action by investing in attack ads on Osborn and characterizing him as a Democrat in Independent’s clothing. Chances are that the Fischer campaign has responded at the correct time and will likely pull away. Despite what are signs of a potential upset, expect Sen. Fischer to prevail once the actual votes are cast.
Nevada — Many believed the Nevada race had upset potential for the Republicans and candidate Sam Brown. Thanks to a huge fundraising operation and using the 3:1 financial imbalance to bury their candidate’s opponent early, Sen. Jacky Rosen’s (D) campaign has apparently put this race to bed.
Therefore, the fact that she leads in all seven polls and two tracks conducted in September, and by an average polling percentage north of eight, Sen. Rosen is poised to capture a second six-year term even if Trump is successful in pulling out a close victory at the top of the ticket.
New Jersey — Incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D) began the election cycle in strong position to win a fourth Senate term, but a bribery conviction ruined his career. Thus, he is no longer a senator, having resigned his seat, nor a candidate. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) then appointed his former chief of staff, George Helmy (D), to serve the balance of the term until a new senator is elected. That man will be US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who will easily claim the open seat in November.
New Mexico — It appeared for a time, at least while President Joe Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, that the New Mexico race was becoming competitive. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) continued to lead former hedge fund CEO Nella Domenici (R), the daughter of the late former six-term New Mexico Sen. Pete Domenici, but by small margins, which suggested that the Land of Enchantment electorate might be willing to change.
Once VP Harris became the party nominee, however, the race reverted, and Sen. Heinrich again posted leads like one would expect from a Democratic incumbent seeking re-election. In three consecutive September polls, Sen. Heinrich posted consistent low double-digit margins suggesting that he is putting the race out of touch. Expect Sen. Heinrich to win a third term in November.