Author Archives: Jim Ellis

Broun In, Westmoreland Out in Georgia Senate Race

© 2013 Google

© 2013 Google

The Georgia Senate picture is becoming clearer as one Republican congressman is prepared to make public his intention to run statewide, while another is saying that he will stay in the House.

Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA-10) is expected to announce his Senate candidacy later today, becoming the first official candidate in the open seat race. He should be able to attract strong grassroots and Tea Party support for his effort. Broun was first elected in a July 2007 special election to replace the late Rep. Charlie Norwood (R), defeating the favored establishment Republican primary candidate.

Conversely, Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-GA-3), citing his enhanced position within the House leadership, says he will not enter the campaign to succeed the retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R).
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Tagg — Not It!

The latest Massachusetts US Senate special election developments show that Republicans are continuing to experience political freezer burn in the harsh New England winter. The battle lines are quickly being drawn for the campaign that will yield a replacement for newly confirmed Secretary of State John Kerry.

Yesterday, Taggart “Tagg” Romney, son of former Bay State governor and 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, joined the group of prominent Republicans who will not become senatorial candidates. Following former Sen. Scott Brown’s decision not to run are ex-Gov. Bill Weld and former state senator and congressional candidate Richard Tisei, in addition to the younger Romney. Kerry Healey, who was Mitt Romney’s lieutenant governor, was said to be considering the race but she has taken no definitive steps to enter the contest. It is likely that the Republicans will be left with only a second-tier candidate.

There is news on the Democratic side, too. Middlesex County District Attorney Gerry Leone said he will not challenge Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) or Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8) for the Democratic senatorial nomination. The move virtually assures that the two congressmen will be the only top Democrats in the race. Considering the situation on the Republican side, it further appears that the April 30 Democratic primary will ultimately determine the next senator. All early signs point to Rep. Markey being a huge favorite to win the party nomination, and now the seat.
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The First Iowa Poll

Rep. Tom Latham | Rep. Steve King

Rep. Tom Latham                                  Rep. Steve King

Harper Polling surveyed the field in Iowa, and found that early suppositions pertaining to next year’s open Senate race may already be proving true. Many believe, that on the Republican side, Rep. Steve King (R-IA-4) has an advantage for the nomination but Rep. Tom Latham (R-IA-3) is a better general election candidate. The Harper numbers show such a conclusion.

According to their Jan. 29 poll of 523 registered Iowa voters, Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA-1) leads King 39-33 percent, but trails Latham 33-36 percent. In the statewide Republican primary, though understanding that the sample size is a very low 200 registered Republicans, King has a 46-29 percent advantage over Latham if the two were to face each other in a stand-alone battle.

Adding two other potential Republican candidates, former gubernatorial contender Bob Vander Plaats and state senator and former congressional candidate Brad Zaun, King also places first. He would lead this field 35-22-20-3 percent over Latham,  Continue reading >

Scott Brown Won’t Run

PRIsm FLASH

Former Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) announced earlier today that he will not become a candidate in the Massachusetts special senatorial election to replace Secretary of State John Kerry.

It is clear from his comments that the prospect of running in 2013, and then again for the full term in 2014 if successful this year, on the heels of a bruising failed re-election campaign last year was too much for Brown and his family, though he continues to express a commitment toward public service. Many people believe he will run for the open governor’s position next year, instead.

Without Brown as the Republican standard bearer, the GOP must turn to alternative candidates. Former Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey and ex-state Sen. Richard Tisei are most often mentioned as possibilities. Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) and Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8) are competing for the Democratic nomination.

The special general election is scheduled for June 25. Party primaries will occur April 30. Gov. Deval Patrick (D) has appointed his former chief of staff, Mo Cowan, to fill the Kerry vacancy on an interim basis until a new Senator is elected. Cowan has already said he will not become a candidate.

Massachusetts Senate Race Shapes Up; Halvorson Hit by Bloombert; Chafee Down in R.I.

As predicted, now that the Massachusetts Senate special election is officially underway, Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8) jumped into the race. He released an announcement video yesterday declaring his statewide candidacy. From his tweets on Twitter, it is clear that he will attempt to draw a sharp contrast between he and fellow Democratic Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5), his opponent in the party primary to be decided on April 30.

Lynch will position himself as the outsider, versus Markey, who he portrays as the insider, establishment candidate. This might be a very difficult strategy to implement since Massachusetts voters normally support the most entrenched of incumbents.

Congressman Lynch represents downtown Boston and the South Boston area, going as far as Quincy and Brockton before swinging back up toward West Roxbury and Jamaica Plain. Markey, on the other hand, represents the area north of the city commonly known as “Bean Town,” including his home base in Malden and Melrose, before swinging southeast to Revere and then west toward Framingham. Markey will move to secure the left flank of the party base whereas Lynch will attempt to rally the moderates. Markey has a huge financial advantage, beginning the  Continue reading >

The Latest on the Impending Massachusetts Senate Race

William "Mo" Cowan

William “Mo” Cowan

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) has appointed his former chief of staff, 43-year-old William “Mo” Cowan, to replace former Sen. John Kerry (D). Kerry resigned his position yesterday upon confirmation as President Obama’s Secretary of State.

Mo Cowan becomes the second African American to join the current Senate, marking the first time that two blacks have served here together since Reconstruction. Ironically, neither is an elected member, as South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R) also was recently appointed.

Cowan will serve until the winner of the state’s special election is sworn into office. Since the Massachusetts election certification process is long in duration, it is Continue reading >

Senate Politics Already Hot

Massachusetts

Considering yesterday’s confirmation of Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (D) as Secretary of State, expect Gov. Deval Patrick (D) to name an interim replacement this week. He previously indicated that he intends to appoint a caretaker who will serve only until voters choose a new senator in the June 25 special general election and through the succeeding post-election certification period.

Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) is the only announced special election candidate from either political party, but Boston Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8) is expected to join the race before week’s end. Democratic Party leaders have worked hard to give Markey an unimpeded march to the nomination, but a Lynch candidacy means that there will be a significant Democratic primary to be decided in an April 30th election.

Little definitive action is yet occurring on the Republican side, but the party’s nominee likely will be either former Sen. Scott Brown, ex-Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, or former state senator and 6th District congressional candidate Richard Tisei. Ex-Gov. Bill Weld is unlikely to enter the contest. Should Brown decide to run he will almost assuredly have an unopposed primary, thus providing him an opportunity to build Continue reading >