Monthly Archives: February 2025

House Member Movement – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 19, 2025

House

Today, we conclude our report about state political developments affecting the 2026 campaign cycle and how House member electoral moves could be influenced.

Minnesota — Sen. Tina Smith’s (D) surprise retirement announcement could trigger a major Democratic primary battle between two of the state’s top office holders. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has already indicated that she plans to enter the open Senate campaign, but apparently Gov. Tim Walz is also likewise contemplating his chances for such a race.

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D)

Because Minnesota has no term limits anchored to its statewide offices, Gov. Walz could run for a third term. This unfolding situation makes the Minnesota open Senate race one of the nation’s top early campaigns.

On the Republican side, both House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Delano) and Rep. Pete Stauber (R-Hermantown/Duluth) say they will not run for the Senate.

New Hampshire — Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is in-cycle but has yet to say whether she will seek a fourth term next year. The Senator indicates a decision will be forthcoming in the next few months. Looking at her largely bipartisan votes on the Trump cabinet appointments suggests that she may be leaning toward running.

If Sen. Shaheen decides to retire, look for Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) to run for the Senate. Freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) is another possibility, but Pappas would be the more likely to seek and win the Democratic nomination.

New Jersey — The Garden State hosts its gubernatorial election this year, and two House members are running for the post. Since this is an odd-year election, neither Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) nor Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) must risk their seat to run statewide.

Should one of them be elected Governor, a special congressional election will be called to fill the balance of the vacated term. Republicans would be more competitive in the Gottheimer seat, but special elections in either district would be contested.

New York — Incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is running for re-election, and her statewide campaign effort looks to have a major effect upon the Empire State US House delegation. Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) has made no secret that he is analyzing his chances of defeating Gov. Hochul in the June 2026 Democratic primary. With the Governor possessing low approval ratings, Rep. Torres’ impending challenge is regarded as serious.

On the Republican side, two-term Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) is also assessing a Governor’s bid. Again, because Hochul appears weak, the eventual Republican nominee is projected to be in a more competitive position than for a typical election. Should Lawler leave his House district (FiveThirtyEight data organization rating D+7) the Democrats would have the inside track toward converting the seat.

Later this year, the state’s northeastern 21st District will go to special election once Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) is confirmed as US Ambassador to the United Nations. Republicans would be favored to hold the seat, but Democrats captured this district in a 2009 special election after then-Rep. John McHugh (R) resigned to become Secretary of the Army. The local Democratic county chairs have already selected dairy farmer Blake Gendebien as their special election nominee. Republicans have yet to designate their candidate.

South Carolina — Gov. Henry McMaster (R), now the longest serving state chief executive in South Carolina history, is ineligible to seek a third full term next year. McMaster’s exit will leave a crowded and competitive open Republican gubernatorial primary. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), look to be sure candidates.

In the House delegation, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) confirms she is also considering running for Governor, while Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) indicates that he is contemplating challenging Sen. Lindsey Graham in the Republican Senate primary.

South Dakota — Gov. Kristi Noem (R) resigned her position to become US Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Upon her leaving office, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) ascended to the governorship. While Rhoden remains noncommittal about running for a full term, reports indicate that at-large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is making plans to run for Governor irrespective of whether the new incumbent becomes a candidate.

Should Rep. Johnson enter the statewide race, the June Republican primary for the open House seat would feature a crowded field. The eventual GOP nominee would then become a prohibitive favorite to win the general election.

Tennessee — For a time, it appeared that we would see multiple Republican US House members entering the Governor’s race to succeed term-limited incumbent Bill Lee (R). When Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) began making moves to join the Governor’s field the situation changed. Now, it appears that only Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) may be an impediment to Sen. Blackburn’s apparent quest for the gubernatorial nomination.

Initially, it appeared that Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) and possibly Diana Harshbarger (R-Kingsport) were all considering becoming statewide candidates. If Rep Rose ultimately decides to run for Governor, a crowded plurality Republican primary would decide his successor in the 6th Congressional District. As candidate filing approaches in April of 2026, the race will become better defined.

Texas — At this point, most of the Texas political attention surrounds whether Attorney General Ken Paxton will challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the March 2026 Republican primary. With Gov. Greg Abbott (R) saying he will run for a fourth term, it appears the rest of the Republican field will be frozen.

Should Paxton run for the Senate, we will see a crowded primary form for state Attorney General. Possibly the only Republican House member who might have interest in running for this statewide post is veteran Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin). It remains to be seen if any of the Democratic House members would show interest in an Attorney General’s campaign.

Vermont — Though Vermont has become one of the most reliable of Democratic states, Republican Gov. Phil Scott has won five consecutive two-year terms. It won’t be known until much closer to the next election whether the Governor will run for a sixth term, but if he retires Democrats are virtually assured of capturing the office.

It would be quite likely that at-large Rep. Becca Balint (D-Brattleboro) would seek the party nomination for Governor. If so, we would again see a crowded and competitive Democratic primary for the state’s singular House seat.

Wisconsin — Gov. Tony Evers (D) is eligible to run for a third term and has hinted that he will do so. Several Republican House members have at one time or another been considered as having statewide aspirations. They are: Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien), and Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua). Once Gov. Evers makes public his political intentions, more will become known about potential opponents.

Wisconsin has a late primary beginning with a candidate filing deadline in June of 2026. Therefore, expect the Wisconsin House delegation to be in flux for quite some time.

Wyoming — Gov. Mark Gordon (R) is term limited in 2026, but the courts have seemingly left the door open for a legal challenge to the Wyoming election law. It is unclear at this point if Gov. Gordon will contest the law and attempt to run for a third term.

At-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) is reportedly a potential Republican candidate regardless of Gov. Gordon’s electoral status. If she risks the House seat, we will see a highly competitive GOP primary develop with the winner becoming the prohibitive favorite for the general election.

House Member Movement, Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025

House

Open races for Governor and in some cases Senator have already led to anticipated movement in the US House delegations. Today, we look at action from half the country. Tomorrow, Part II.

Alaska — Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, and most of the early political speculation involves defeated Rep. Mary Peltola (D) and what might be her next political move. Peltola says she’s been getting encouragement to run for Governor, or even against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), or to seek a re-match with freshman Republican at-large Congressman Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak). The former Congresswoman jokingly said, “I might run for all three!”

In reality, her best chance for victory would be in the open Governor’s race. Expect her to enter that battle, which leaves Rep. Begich in a much stronger position for re-election.

Karrin Taylor Robson / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona — Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is already making moves to challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). It appears, however, that he will first face 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson in the Republican primary. Robson already has an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Still, Rep. Biggs begins with an early polling lead. Arizona’s 5th District is safely Republican. Therefore, we can expect to see a crowded and competitive Republican primary in late July of 2026.

Largely due to health reasons, Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) announced even before the end of last year that he would not seek re-election in 2026. His retirement will yield a contested Democratic primary in a seat that stretches from just southeast of Tucson along the Mexican border all the way to California.

Colorado — Gov. Jared Polis (D) is term-limited in 2026, and his lame duck status is igniting a round of political musical chairs.

Two Democratic members of the House delegation are likely to run for Governor. Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder), who is staked to small early Democratic primary polling leads, and Jason Crow (D-Aurora) are both testing the waters for a statewide run. Should both enter the Governor’s race, we will see hotly contested Democratic primaries in Districts 2 and 6. Each seat is safely Democratic, so the major political action will be in the June primary.

Connecticut — Gov. Ned Lamont (D) could run for a third term but has said he won’t make a decision about his electoral future until after the legislative session ends halfway through this year. The most likely House member to make a statewide move, should Gov. Lamont decide to retire, is Rep. Jim Himes (D-Cos Cob). If the Governor runs again, which is likely, expect no movement in the Connecticut congressional delegation.

Florida — Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, but his wife, Casey DeSantis, is sending signals that she may run. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) has opened with a big polling lead in surveys that have not yet included Casey DeSantis. Should Rep. Donalds run for Governor, he will leave a crowded Republican primary in his wake. The 19th District, however, is strongly Republican, so don’t expect the Democrats to contest the seat in the general election.

Two-term Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) was threatening, before Gov. DeSantis chose state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) to replace now Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Senate, to primary the appointed Senator. His rhetoric has been less intense since Moody took the seat, so it remains to be seen if Rep. Mills launches a primary challenge. If the 7th District opens, expect a highly competitive Republican primary followed by a moderately contested general election.

Georgia — It appears we will see a great deal of action in the Peach State next year. Two-term Gov. Brian Kemp (R) cannot succeed himself, but he may challenge first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D).

Irrespective of Gov. Kemp’s plans, his position will be open. Already four House members, Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) have discussed running statewide either for Governor or Senator. Most would defer to Gov. Kemp if he decides to run for the Senate. Depending upon eventual circumstances, we could see wholesale change within the Georgia Republican House delegation.

For the Democrats, largely due to health problems, Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) is expected to either retire or face a difficult Democratic primary challenge. State Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur), who has won 11 elections to his current state legislative seat, has already declared his intent to run for Congress in 2026. This guarantees that a highly competitive Democratic primary will commence irrespective of whether Rep. Scott seeks re-election.

Kansas — Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so the focus will be upon those vying to succeed her. National Democratic leaders would like to see four-term Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park/Kansas City) run for Governor, but it is unclear whether Rep. Davids, who has secured what had been, heretofore, a marginal political seat, will risk her current position to run statewide as an underdog in reliably red Kansas. No Republican House member is expected to run statewide.

Kentucky — Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) has already expressed interest in running for the Senate if former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) announces his retirement as expected. Barr is likely to face ex-Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron in the Republican primary.

Democrats are attempting to recruit Gov. Andy Beshear for the Senate race, so Kentucky will become a very interesting political state in 2026. Should Rep. Barr run statewide, his 6th District would become moderately competitive, but the eventual Republican nominee would be favored to hold the seat.

Maine — Gov. Janet Mills (D) is another of the term-limited Governors, and as such all eyes are on four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) to see if he will make the move into the open statewide race. At this point, Golden is non-committal about his 2026 political plans. He survived a close 2024 re-election battle with former NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R).

Therefore, the Congressman would very likely face a competitive re-match should he decide to seek re-election if he eschews a bid for Governor.

Michigan — For the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and open Senate race in the same election cycle. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is another of the term-limited state chief executives, and Sen. Gary Peters (D) has already announced his retirement. Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) leads all Republicans in polling for the open Governor’s office and is expected to again run statewide.

Democratic Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) have been tested in Senate polling, but neither fare well. Despite two major statewide openings, it is probable that Rep. James, at least at this time, is the only House member willing to risk his seat for a statewide bid.

Moving to Replace McConnell

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 17, 2024

Senate

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Veteran Senator and former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has not formally announced his retirement vis-à-vis the next election, but that’s not stopping potential successors from beginning to declare their intent.

Two individuals already saying they are preparing Senate bids are former state Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington).

Polling to gauge potential Senate candidate political strength is also underway. According to a co/efficient data firm poll conducted in early December but released on Feb. 10 (Dec. 2-3; 1,298 identified Kentucky Republican primary voters; live interview & text), Cameron would lead Rep. Barr and former US Ambassador to the United Nations and ex-gubernatorial candidate Kelly Craft by a 32-16-10-3 percent count. In second place is Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison/Covington). Massie was tested in the poll but has since stated that he will not run for the Senate.

Another House member not entering an open Senate race is Rep. James Comer (R-Tompkinsville), chairman of the House Government Oversight Committee. Comer stated he will seek re-election to the House in 2026, but also indicated he would consider again running for Governor in 2027 when incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

In 2015, Comer, then the state’s Commissioner of Agriculture, ran for Governor but lost the Republican primary to future Gov. Matt Bevin by only 83 votes from just over 214,000 ballots cast.

Another potential Republican candidate is wealthy businessman Nate Morris who is reportedly willing to inject a seven figure sum into his campaign. Among those Republicans not inclined to run, at least at this time, are Kentucky state Senate President Robert Stivers (R-Manchester) and state House Speaker David Osborne (R-Prospect).

For the Democrats, Gov. Beshear has previously indicated that he would not run for the Senate if the seat came open, but he will be under heavy pressure to do so. National and state Democratic leaders don’t have a better Kentucky option, and having the two-term Governor as their Senate nominee would certainly put the race in play.

The last time a Blue Grass State Democrat won a Senate election was 1992. Wendell Ford claimed victory that year in what proved to be the last of his four full terms. Prior to Sen. Ford’s retirement in 1999, Democrats held the Class III seat for 54 of the preceding 72 years. Sen. McConnell first won the Class II seat in 1984.

The Democrats’ record in Kentucky gubernatorial elections is much better. Gov. Beshear averaged just 50.8 percent of the vote in his two elections, but that is an improvement over any other Democrat running statewide since the Governor’s father, Steve Beshear, served two terms during the 2007-2015 period.

Should Rep. Barr follow through with his initial plans to run for the Senate, he would leave a Lexington-Fayette County anchored district housing the state’s second largest metropolitan area.

The 6th Congressional District was much more competitive prior to 2021 redistricting and widely considered a swing seat. Now, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight data organization, the seat is rated R+13. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.8R – 46.1D partisan lean, and the Down Ballot political blog staff members rank KY-6 as the 70th safest seat in the House Republican Conference.

Therefore, should Rep. Barr vacate the House seat to run for the Senate, the eventual Republican nominee would be favored to win an open seat contest.

Regardless of the candidate composition, and assuming Sen. McConnell does not seek re-election to an eighth term, we can expect some hotly contested Kentucky campaign efforts to unfold for the May 2026 primary election.

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 14, 2025

Senate

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D)

Yesterday, Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D) surprisingly announced that she will retire when the current term expires and not seek re-election in 2026.

Sen. Smith, in an open letter stated that ” … as much as I love my work, I’m fortunate enough to be able to say that my work is only part of what makes up my life. And after two decades of hard, rewarding work in public service, I’m ready to prioritize other things — starting with my family.”

Sen. Smith is the second Senate incumbent, and second Democrat, to forgo re-election in 2026. Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) last week announced that he would not stand for a third term. Tina Smith, then Minnesota’s Lieutenant Governor, was appointed to the Senate in 2018 after then-Sen. Al Franken (D) resigned under a scandal cloud. She was elected in her own right in 2020, defeating former Congressman Jason Lewis (R) with a closer than expected 49-44 percent victory margin.

Most likely, the early attention about who might run to succeed Sen. Smith will center around Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee. Minnesota has no statewide term limits, and there has already been much discussion as to whether Walz would seek a third term. To date, the Governor has not made public his 2026 political intentions. Now, expect the political conjecture to revolve around whether Gov. Walz will run for the Senate.

Speculation about other potential Democratic contenders will likely include Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) and even possibly former Sen. Franken, among others. It is probable that the Democratic political community will be frozen, however, until Gov. Walz makes a decision regarding his own political future.

The Republican side has less obvious candidates since the party holds no statewide positions in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. In fact, the last Republican Senate victory here occurred in 2002 when Norm Coleman defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale after the death of Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone less than a month before the November election.

Earlier in the week, Jim Schutz, who lost the 2022 Attorney General race by less than a percentage point, indicated that he would consider a potential gubernatorial bid. With a Senate seat now open, Schultz would have to be considered a possible federal office contender.

Speculation will undoubtedly include the state’s four Republican US Representatives: Brad Finstad (R-New Ulm), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Delano), Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal), and Pete Stauber (R-Hermantown/Duluth). It is probable all will remain in their current positions since a statewide run is a well under 50/50 victory proposition for any Republican candidate.

Another GOP name that may surface is that of former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who served from 2003-2011. Still only 64 years old, Pawlenty may be in position for a political comeback.

At the end of the day, the Democrats will be favored to hold the Senate seat, but their statewide victory margins are thinning.

Even with Gov. Walz on the national Democratic ticket, the party’s 2024 Minnesota victory margin dropped to 4.2 percentage points in comparison with the result from the previous four years. In 2020, President Joe Biden carried the state with a 7.1 point spread. The state was closer in 2016. Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump here with only a 1.5 percent margin. In the immediate previous election cycles the Democratic victory result was much larger. President Barack Obama won Minnesota with 7.6 (2012) and 10.3 (2008) percent point spreads.

The Smith retirement now means we can add Minnesota to the list of highly combative 2026 political battleground states.

Ex-Ohio State Football Coach Appointed Lieutenant Governor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 13, 2024

Governor

Jim Tressel

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) announced at a news conference that he has appointed former Ohio State head football coach and ex-Youngstown State University president Jim Tressel to fill the state’s vacant Lieutenant Governor’s position.

The office came open when the Governor appointed Jon Husted (R) to the US Senate to replace Vice President J.D. Vance. Immediately, reporters pummeled Tressel with questions regarding whether he would run for Governor next year, queries that both he and DeWine avoided answering.

In Ohio, the Lieutenant Governor runs on a ticket with the Governor. In 2018, during the open Republican primary, Husted, then Secretary of State, was competing against DeWine in the Republican gubernatorial primary along with then-Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor. Because it appeared that DeWine and Husted could split the center-right vote, which could reasonably have allowed Taylor to win after consolidating the political right, a deal was cut.

Husted offered then-Attorney General DeWine a proposition where he would exit the Governor’s race and run as the latter’s Lieutenant Governor running mate. DeWine accepted the arrangement and the two went onto victories in both the 2018 Republican primary and general elections. In 2022, the DeWine-Husted ticket won re-election with just over 62 percent of the vote.

Their teamwork plan included DeWine then supporting Husted for Governor in 2026, something that the Governor was prepared to do until the state’s junior Senator, J.D. Vance, was elected Vice President. At first, the Lieutenant Governor indicated he wanted to stay in the Governor’s race and battle Attorney General Dave Yost for the party nomination. It always appeared, however, that Husted was the obvious choice to take the Senate seat and was eventually prevailed upon to take that role.

Now businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is, with great fanfare, about to enter the Republican gubernatorial primary and polling suggests he begins with an overwhelming lead. State Treasurer Robert Sprague, who was briefly a gubernatorial candidate, exited the Governor’s race and endorsed Ramaswamy who is not yet even an official contender. Term-limited Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2022 and was considered a potential entry into the Governor’s race, late last week announced instead a bid for state Auditor.

Therefore, DeWine’s move to Tressel could be a plan to at least make the Republican gubernatorial campaign more competitive should the latter man, popular with high name ID due to his championship run as an Ohio State football coach, decide to run for Governor.

Tressel coached at Ohio State for 10 years and won a national championship. He resigned under a cloud, however, as the university was cited for recruitment violations under his domain. Prior to his coaching tenure with the state’s premier college football program, he coached for 14 seasons at Youngstown State. Regardless of the details concerning his exit from Ohio State, Tressel still enjoys a generally positive personal image.

At the apex of his coaching career, it was speculated upon that Tressel might mount challenges to then-Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). In both of those election years, however, Tressel chose not to run. Therefore, it is far from certain that he will enter the current Governor’s race.

For his part, Ramaswamy says he will make “a big announcement” in late February. All expect him to announce his gubernatorial candidacy at that time. Certainly, his involvement, and now possibly Tressel’s, is making the open Ohio Governor’s campaign possibly the premier 2026 political contest in terms of attracting national media attention. Expect this pattern to continue for quite some time.

Pete Buttigieg Leads in Michigan Democratic Primary Senate Poll

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2025

Senate

Former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg / Photo by Matt Johnson

A new Michigan Democratic primary poll suggests that former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is the man to beat for the party nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D).

The Blueprint Polling firm tested a likely Michigan Democratic voting segment (Jan. 30-Feb. 2; 536 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters; SMS text) and sees Buttigieg topping Attorney General Dana Nessel 40-16 percent in a hypothetical 2026 primary poll. Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak Township) all trail “in low single digits,” according to the Blueprint analysis.

Sen. McMorrow is the only individual who has formally announced for the Senate from either party, but the aforementioned have all confirmed they are considering entering the race. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilcrest (D) was included in this poll but last week announced that he will not run for the Senate. He is projected as virtually certain to enter the open Governor’s contest.

Buttigieg has the highest name identification and favorability index of the tested potential contenders within this Democratic sampling universe. He posts 88 percent name recognition with a 77:12 favorable to unfavorable split. Attorney General Nessel is close behind with an 82 percent name recognition score and a similar 72:10 positive index. A total of 56 percent questioned could identify Lt. Gov. Gilcrest, and 45 percent responded with a favorable impression. The remaining potential candidates all had low statewide name ID.

Buttigieg does particularly well with white Democrats (47-16 percent over Nessel), the highly educated (47-15 percent versus Nessel), liberals (47-18 percent against Nessel), and non-union workers (44-14 percent opposite Nessel). The former Transportation Secretary fared poorly with blacks, however, trailing both Nessel and Gilcrest (22-19-16 percent).

Sen. McMorrow and the two Representatives, should either or both enter the statewide race, would have a long way to go in becoming competitive for the nomination. Tested against AG Nessel, Rep. Stevens would even lose her own 11th Congressional District by 15 percentage points, while Rep. Scholten would lead Nessel 28-21 percent in her 3rd CD but trails badly elsewhere. Sen. McMorrow lags seven points behind AG Nessel among those who know and have an opinion of both women.

According to the Blueprint analysis scenarios, Buttigieg would be in an enviable position for the Democratic Party nomination should he become a Senate candidate. The pollsters conclude, “Pete Buttigieg is the overwhelming front-runner. He struggles with Black voters and nearly a third of the electorate remains undecided, but his strength with educated voters and white liberals makes him the odds-on favorite to win the nomination.”

The Blueprint pollsters did not test any of the Democratic candidates against prospective Republican candidates such as former Congressman Mike Rogers, who came within 19,006 votes of winning the state’s other Senate seat in the 2024 election.

With Buttigieg faring poorly with black voters and considering that now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) is more popular than the former Transportation Secretary with the general electorate, it appears Rogers would be in strong position should he mount another attempt in the coming midterm election.

Previously, Republicans as a whole tended to fare better in midterm elections when compared to their presidential year performance, but considering the changing dynamics within the Michigan and national electorates such may no longer be the case. It does appear that the country is entering a realignment phase, but it will take at least two more elections to see if such change becomes a trend or is merely an anomaly found only in 2024.

Irrespective of who becomes the eventual Michigan US Senate nominees, the open Wolverine State race will be one of the top targets for both national parties.

New Jersey Free-For-All

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025

Governor

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill

Two late January political surveys post Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) holding small leads in the crowded 2025 New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial primary, but all six candidates remain very much in the running.

Public Policy Polling (Jan. 22-23; 615 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters) finds Rep. Sherrill clinging to a 16-11-9-9-9-5 percent edge over New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, while the next three contenders, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, are all tied and slightly ahead of Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff).

A day earlier, Emerson College finished their statewide poll (Jan. 18-21; 437 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters; 334 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) which also saw a jumbled Democratic field with most voters responding that they have yet to make a determinative decision.

According to the Emerson data, Rep. Sherrill also records a small lead but with a spread even tighter than PPP’s finding. The Emerson ballot test projects a 10-8-8-7-7-4 percent posting with Sherrill leading followed by Spiller, Mayor Baraka, Rep. Gottheimer, Sweeney, and Mayor Fulop. Again, this data suggests that the Democratic primary race is wide open, and all six contenders could still develop momentum to win the June 10 plurality primary.

The eventual Democratic nominee, according to the Emerson poll, is likely to face 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, a former state Assemblyman who lost to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) in a 51-48 percent finish that was much closer than expected.

The Emerson poll also forecasts Ciattarelli with a large but not insurmountable Republican primary lead. According to the ballot test results, the 2021 gubernatorial nominee would lead radio talk show host Bill Spadea, 26-13 percent, with state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Plainfield) posting four percent, while five other minor candidates poll support figures of three percent or less.

Political party registration in New Jersey, according to the NJ Division of Elections latest data (Feb. 1, 2025, report), finds Democrats holding a 37.4 – 24.4 percent edge in partisan affiliation. A total of 37.0 percent are unaffiliated, with slightly less than one percent of the electorate being registered in a minor political party.

Republicans, however, have gained a half-percentage point in relation to the Democrats in the three-plus months since the 2024 election. This translates into a net Republican gain of 23,061 voters. In this period, Republican registration has grown 22,686 while the Democrats have dropped 375 registered voters. In January alone, the GOP net gain factor was 10,480 individuals. Should this trend continue through the 2025 election period, the November contest could turn into a highly competitive political affair.

Resources will, of course, be a major factor in the candidates moving forward. One would believe that both Reps. Sherril and Gottheimer would be dominant on the fundraising front, yet the state rules are different. Both Representatives have become two of the most prolific fundraisers in the US House, but they face a major obstacle in their respective gubernatorial bids.

Under current New Jersey financial disclosure reports, both Reps. Sherrill and Gottheimer are on the low end of the spectrum (each raising under $1.7 million – Fulop leads all candidates with just over $2.8 million raised), but that doesn’t include the transfers the federal candidates can execute. Here is where the state law penalizes the two House members. Under the state’s campaign finance law, only $17,300 can be transferred from a candidate’s committee to another committee.

According to the year-end Federal Election Commission reports, Rep. Gottheimer had just over $20 million in his congressional account, meaning he can only transfer less than one percent of his available funds. Rep. Sherrill posted just over $183,000 cash-on-hand, which means $166,000 is nontransferable.

Featuring such a crowded and unclear Democratic primary with all candidates basically on even footing, the New Jersey Governor’s race promises to be one of the more interesting statewide contests slated for this year.