By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 17, 2024
Senate
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) / Photo by Gage Skidmore
Two individuals already saying they are preparing Senate bids are former state Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington).
Polling to gauge potential Senate candidate political strength is also underway. According to a co/efficient data firm poll conducted in early December but released on Feb. 10 (Dec. 2-3; 1,298 identified Kentucky Republican primary voters; live interview & text), Cameron would lead Rep. Barr and former US Ambassador to the United Nations and ex-gubernatorial candidate Kelly Craft by a 32-16-10-3 percent count. In second place is Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison/Covington). Massie was tested in the poll but has since stated that he will not run for the Senate.
Another House member not entering an open Senate race is Rep. James Comer (R-Tompkinsville), chairman of the House Government Oversight Committee. Comer stated he will seek re-election to the House in 2026, but also indicated he would consider again running for Governor in 2027 when incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
In 2015, Comer, then the state’s Commissioner of Agriculture, ran for Governor but lost the Republican primary to future Gov. Matt Bevin by only 83 votes from just over 214,000 ballots cast.
Another potential Republican candidate is wealthy businessman Nate Morris who is reportedly willing to inject a seven figure sum into his campaign. Among those Republicans not inclined to run, at least at this time, are Kentucky state Senate President Robert Stivers (R-Manchester) and state House Speaker David Osborne (R-Prospect).
For the Democrats, Gov. Beshear has previously indicated that he would not run for the Senate if the seat came open, but he will be under heavy pressure to do so. National and state Democratic leaders don’t have a better Kentucky option, and having the two-term Governor as their Senate nominee would certainly put the race in play.
The last time a Blue Grass State Democrat won a Senate election was 1992. Wendell Ford claimed victory that year in what proved to be the last of his four full terms. Prior to Sen. Ford’s retirement in 1999, Democrats held the Class III seat for 54 of the preceding 72 years. Sen. McConnell first won the Class II seat in 1984.
The Democrats’ record in Kentucky gubernatorial elections is much better. Gov. Beshear averaged just 50.8 percent of the vote in his two elections, but that is an improvement over any other Democrat running statewide since the Governor’s father, Steve Beshear, served two terms during the 2007-2015 period.
Should Rep. Barr follow through with his initial plans to run for the Senate, he would leave a Lexington-Fayette County anchored district housing the state’s second largest metropolitan area.
The 6th Congressional District was much more competitive prior to 2021 redistricting and widely considered a swing seat. Now, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight data organization, the seat is rated R+13. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.8R – 46.1D partisan lean, and the Down Ballot political blog staff members rank KY-6 as the 70th safest seat in the House Republican Conference.
Therefore, should Rep. Barr vacate the House seat to run for the Senate, the eventual Republican nominee would be favored to win an open seat contest.
Regardless of the candidate composition, and assuming Sen. McConnell does not seek re-election to an eighth term, we can expect some hotly contested Kentucky campaign efforts to unfold for the May 2026 primary election.