Monthly Archives: March 2025

Tomorrow’s Elections

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 31, 2025

Elections

Florida state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R)

Important special elections will be held in Florida and Wisconsin tomorrow, and voting in Louisiana on four constitutional amendments this past Saturday did not go the Republican Governor’s way.

At stake tomorrow are two key Sunshine State Republican congressional seats and a crucial state Supreme Court race that will decide the Wisconsin high court majority. The latter election could lead to significant redistricting ramifications for the 2026 campaign cycle.

Florida — In Florida, Republican Jimmy Patronis, the state’s Chief Financial Officer, appears poised to hold the 1st District for the GOP despite being outspent by his Democratic opponent, athletic trainer Gay Valimont.

Patronis does not live in the 1st District for which he is campaigning. This is the CD that former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned at the beginning of the Congress, thus forcing the special election. The Patronis family, however, owns a major restaurant in the Florida Panhandle which increases Jimmy Patronis’ familiarity throughout the region.

Additionally, he has twice been on the ballot in his statewide runs for CFO, carrying the 1st District both times. Furthermore, at R+38 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization and FL-1 ranking as the 39th-safest seat in the Republican Conference according to the Down Ballot statistical blog makes a Democratic upset here extremely unlikely.

Democrats have greater optimism about the 6th District even though 538 rates this seat as R+28 and Down Ballot forecasts it as the 105th-safest GOP district.

The candidate campaign spending imbalance favors the Democratic nominee, educator Josh Weil, by almost a 10:1 ratio, which has put the seat in play. Two polls were conducted at the end of last week, and both show a small spread between the two candidates, with Weil and Republican nominee Randy Fine, a state Senator, each leading in one.

The Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm tested the race but did not publicly release the data. Yet, it is being reported that this survey found Fine trailing Weil by three percentage points. The only fully released survey, from St. Pete Polls (March 22-25; 403 likely FL-6 special election voters; interactive voice response system & text; 38 percent of whom stated they had already voted), projects Fine leading 48-44 percent.

Additionally, Sen. Fine’s district is more than 100 miles from the heart of Congressional District 6, and he represents no carryover constituents in the CD. Republican leaders have been complaining that Fine is a poor fundraiser but moving him into a district where the average Republican voter has never heard of him makes his task all the more difficult.

A Republican loss here would bring potentially disastrous ramifications to the Trump legislative agenda and at least for the short term reverse the GOP’s positive momentum.

Wisconsin — The stakes are also high in Wisconsin where a Supreme Court race could lead to an early redraw of the current congressional district map. Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford (D) and former state Attorney General Brad Schimel (R) are the candidates but will appear on the ballot with no party label.

Spending on both sides has been heavy. Should Crawford win, it is quite possible the court will then order the congressional map redrawn, which could mean the loss of two Republican seats. This would be especially dangerous for the GOP if the court orders special elections to be held after a redraw is complete.

A superintendent of public instruction election is also being conducted. Both candidates are Democrats, but the more conservative of the two has a fundraising advantage and a chance to defeat the incumbent. A ballot initiative to enshrine the state’s voter ID law in the state constitution is also before the electorate’s consideration.

Louisiana — In Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) was advocating for four different constitutional amendments that pertained to several subjects including budget, taxes, spending caps, teacher bonuses, juvenile justice, and special elections.

Liberal organizations, largely intent on defeating the amendment that would have increased penalties for juvenile crime, created a “No on All” campaign to sink all four amendment proposals. Some conservative organizations also opposed several of the ballot propositions for other reasons. A major reason for the landslide defeat of all the measures was their complexity. Some analysts believed the lengthy intricacies of the four amendments made them difficult to fully understand, so the safer move was voting “no on all.”

GOP Loses Another Special

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 28, 2025

States

Earlier this year, Iowa Democrat Mike Zimmer made national news by flipping a Republican state Senate seat in a special election, and now another similar situation unfolded this week.

Pennsylvania Democrat James Malone won a state Senate election in Lancaster County where the electorate hadn’t voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

On Tuesday, Democrat James Malone won a Pennsylvania state Senate election in Lancaster County where the electorate hadn’t voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson won a full presidential term back in 1964.

The question being asked is whether this is a budding trend or simply occurred because Republicans failed to turn out enough of their much larger base of conservative/right-of-center voters.

In each case, the elections were close. In Iowa, Sen. Zimmer won his seat by 338 votes (or a 3.6 percent margin from a total turnout of 9,305 voters). In Pennsylvania, Malone defeated Republican John Parsons by a similar 482 votes within a universe of 53,900 cast ballots (a margin of just under nine-tenths of one percentage point).

Neither upset victory caused the Republicans to lose their majority in the respective state Senate body, but the media is spinning the results as a rejection symptom of the national Trump agenda.

In special elections, especially after a major national vote, it is rather commonplace to see the losing party begin to rebound in low turnout balloting events. Therefore, such a pattern has certainly been witnessed before but it is not a positive story for the previous election winners, and especially this year when the two 2025 special elections were held in seats that typically vote strongly Republican.

The departing legislators in each case were Republican stalwarts. In Iowa, the 35th Senate District, which is anchored in Clinton County and hugs the Illinois border just north of the Quad Cities region, was open because the previous incumbent, Chris Cournoyer (R), was appointed Lieutenant Governor to fill a vacancy in that office.

In the Pennsylvania district that is fully contained within northern Lancaster County, the previous incumbent, Ryan Aument (R), resigned after being appointed as state director for new US Sen. David McCormick (R-PA).

Earlier, we covered the situation pertaining to the two Florida congressional elections that will be decided on Tuesday. There, the Democratic candidates in wholly Republican districts, one anchored in Pensacola and the other in Daytona Beach, have heavily out-raised their Republican opponents by a combined ratio of better than 5:1. Should an upset occur in either one of those districts, we will see a repeat performance of the media coverage regarding the two state Senate flips, but to a much greater degree.

Florida’s 1st District, from which former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned, looks secure for state CFO Jimmy Patronis (R) despite him being outspent. Though Patronis does not live in the 1st CD, he is a well-known figure in the Florida Panhandle as a major restaurateur, and he has been on the ballot throughout the district as a statewide elected official.

The 6th CD, the district that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz previously represented, is also strongly Republican, but GOP candidate Randy Fine, a state Senator from Melbourne, represents a state legislative seat two CDs and a minimum of 100 miles away, which means there is no crossover representation between his Senate seat and the 6th Congressional District. Being a lesser-known candidate may make it somewhat more difficult to convince Republican voters to participate in an irregular election.

Additionally, the Wisconsin state Supreme Court race that will determine the partisan majority on that high court and could have congressional redistricting ramifications, will also be decided Tuesday.

Here, Dane County Circuit Court Judge Susan Crawford (D) has raised more than $26 million for her statewide campaign, almost double the total of her opponent, Republican former state Attorney General Brad Schimel. Elon Musk has come to Schimel’s rescue to largely even the score on the airwaves. Therefore, this will be another important race to watch on April 1. Though the judicial races are nonpartisan, this campaign has been fought on very partisan grounds.

It appears that Tuesday’s election will carry more national significance than one might have originally guessed.

Dems Record Major Dollar Advantage for Florida Specials

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 27, 2025

House

Two special congressional elections will be decided in the Sunshine State on Tuesday, and if fundraising is any indication the Democratic nominees are alive in very red districts.

Florida’s 1st and 6th CDs are vacant due to the resignation of Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) and Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Both districts are solidly Republican, especially the 1st.

According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, FL-1 holds a R+38 rating, the strongest of the 20 Republican held Florida congressional districts. President Donald Trump carried this seat in both 2020 and 2024 with support numbers reaching almost 70 percent. Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis is the Republican nominee and is forced to relinquish his statewide position under the state’s election law in order to run for another office.

The 6th CD, located on the Atlantic Coast and housing the cities of Daytona Beach, De Land, Ormond Beach, and Palm Coast, rates R+28 within the same FiveThirtyEight ranking scale. President Trump, according to The Down Ballot political blog calculations, carried the district with a 65-35 percent margin in November.

The GOP candidate is state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) who attracted endorsements from the entire Republican hierarchy, including President Trump, during the party primary that was decided on Jan. 28.

On paper, these seats should be unassailable for the Democrats, but the party’s candidates in each district have significantly out-raised their respective opponents. In the 1st, Democratic nominee Gay Valimont, an athletic trainer who was the 2024 nominee and who lost to Rep. Gaetz 66-34 percent, collected over $6.6 million through the Federal Election Commission disclosure period ending March 12. This compares with Patronis’s just under $2.2 million in receipts through the same time frame.

The more troubling spot for the GOP is likely the 6th District where the party nominee, Sen. Fine, represents a 19th state Senate District that is over 100 miles from the geographic heart of the 6th CD and has zero crossover population. The Republican leadership, including President Trump, was able to virtually clear the primary field for Fine, but his local contacts are obviously weak since he is a largely unknown political figure in the region.

For his part, Democrat Josh Weil, who bills himself as a “bad-ass teacher” in his ads, had raised $9.4 million through March 12 as compared to Fine’s $987,000 over the same period. Outside Republican and right-of-center organizations have added over $2 million in expenditures to help neutralize the Democratic spending advantage.

While the campaign financial numbers are imbalanced, the key to the Republican strategy is turnout since the party enjoys large advantages in voter registration (55 to 21 percent over the Democrats in the 1st and 49 to 25 percent in the 6th) and electoral history. Currently, early and mail voting is underway. For the November general election, 71 percent of voters in the 1st District voted before election day, as did 73 percent of 6th District registrants.

In the special election, 51,020 individuals cast a ballot in the special 1st District Republican primary which represents just 13 percent of the total participation number recorded in the 2024 general election. Because Valimont was unopposed in the special Democratic primary, no election was held, and she was therefore declared the party nominee.

Turning to the 6th District, just 40,811 people voted in the special Jan. 28 Republican primary and 15,986 for the Democrats meaning a total participation number of 56,797 or just over 13 percent of the general election total turnout figure.

Therefore, while the Republican turnout was much larger than the Democratic participation factor, the GOP will need to increase their voter turnout rate to a greater degree for the April 1 special general to compensate for the significant resource imbalance that will be used to maximize Democrat and Independent participation.

Though the Democrats have gotten a fundraising boost in these special elections, the overwhelming voter registration figures and electoral history still gives the Republicans huge advantages that will likely carry their nominees to victory in both seats.

Should we see the most improbable of Democratic upsets, and such happening in the 6th District is more probable than with the 1st, political reverberations would be nationally felt and might prove a linchpin in derailing the Trump agenda, not to mention reducing the already slim House GOP majority margin. Thus, the stakes for Republicans in Tuesday’s special elections are becoming extremely high.

US Supreme Court Hears
Louisiana Redistricting Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 26, 2025

House

The US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) heard oral arguments Monday over the Louisiana redistricting process that led to the state hosting two Black districts, but the decade’s final map is yet to be decided.

So far, the process has led to the revival of a congressional district that was declared unconstitutional in 1994, which is a seat stretching all the way from Baton Rouge to Shreveport, which effectively cuts through the middle of House Speaker Mike Johnson’s 4th District.

Ironically, the member negatively affected when the seat was declared unconstitutional 30-plus years ago was then-Rep. Cleo Fields (D), who is also the beneficiary of the current draw. Fields, after serving two terms in the House, would later be elected to the state Senate, a body in which he served prior to his election to Congress. Once the same previously rejected congressional district configuration returned to the Louisiana map in 2023, it was again Fields who would run for the re-created 6th District and once more enter the US House of Representatives.

When the original 2021 congressional map was adopted, the partisan division again favored the GOP by a 5-1 count. Democratic plaintiffs went to a favorable federal district court in Baton Rouge to file their case, and Middle District Chief Judge Shelly Dick, an appointee of President Barack Obama, as predicted, ruled in their favor. The map was returned to the legislature for a redraw with the instruction to craft a second Black district. The new map forced then-Rep. Garret Graves (R) to retire, which virtually assured Fields of returning to Congress.

Republicans then filed a constitutional challenge to the new 6th District, citing the court’s rejection of such a draw in 1994, and a three-judge federal panel constituted to hear the case ruled in favor of the GOP plaintiffs and declared the map a gerrymander, just as was determined 30 years earlier.

The ruling was then sent to the Supreme Court where a summary affirmation of the lower court ruling was expected. In a surprise pre-election ruling, however, the high court stayed the case with the six Republican justices voting in favor of the stay and the three Democrats opposing. The stay cost the Republicans a seat, and almost the party’s small majority.

Monday’s hearing featured a long, very active, and at times intense session with even Justice Elena Kagan jumping in to answer a question from Justice Sam Alito before the presenting attorney could answer, and Justice Brett Kavanaugh asking whether the time had come to “sunset the Voting Rights Act.”

Unless the court now decides to summarily affirm the three-judge panel ruling, which they can still do, we can expect a final decision on this case at the end of the session in June. Regardless of how the court rules, it will affect the 2026 congressional elections and also the House majority because of the slim 220-215 eventual edge the Republicans will likely hold once the vacancies are filled barring any special election upsets.

If the court rules in favor of the current state map, Democrats will hold their second seat in the Louisiana delegation. If the high court ultimately upholds the three-judge panel ruling, then the state’s plan will become void and the map would return to the panel for a redraw, assuming the legislature does not step in and issue an alternative congressional plan.

Should the legislature not take action, and it’s unlikely they will be in session when SCOTUS decides the case, the three-judge panel will draw a new map, which will probably lead to a GOP gain of one seat. Such a move would likely return the delegation to a 5R-1D split along with returning Speaker Johnson to a more compact and undivided district.

Once again, Louisiana is in the forefront of a redistricting drama battle. It remains to be seen how this chapter ultimately ends.

A Budding Realignment

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Voting Trends

Former Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

New post-election analysis reports are being released suggesting the foundation for political realignment is being laid, but whether the Republicans can effectively change their vote targeting strategies to take advantage of this new opportunity remains the unanswered question.

There was a great deal of discussion and analysis about the minority voting trends in the 2024 election, but significantly fewer assessments were published or aired pertaining to the changes in the youth vote.

Exit polling was providing some data, but now more reliable information from actual precinct voting totals is available for analysis.

The media reporters highlight exit polling on election nights, because the information is quickly obtained, and it provides them with filler information for the early post poll-closing hours.

The problem is exit that polling is not particularly accurate, because the sampling is not altogether random. The methodology is often flawed because the sample, which generally consists of in-person interviews at polling places and early voters contacted via telephone, is not systematically drawn. In exit polling, individuals typically volunteer to participate. This further skews the sampling universe because the participants are not wholly representative of the active electorate.

The Blue Rose Research entity, a Democratic survey research firm, released a report about the minority and age segmentation data based upon actual votes in statistically significant precincts. Their results, particularly in reference to the youth vote, are quite surprising and could further indicate that the electorate may be in the beginning phase of political realignment.

The Blue Rose report confirms that President Donald Trump performed better among minority voters than most other Republicans, particularly among Hispanic men, but his non-Hispanic White youth support figures are actually astonishing.

Within the White male 18-20 years of age segment, former Vice President Kamala Harris received only 28 percent support. The numbers from this particular study track only the percentage preference for Harris. While the Trump numbers are obviously higher than 28 percent, they are not likely at 72 percent since minor party candidates attracted some support.

The highest level of support for Harris among White men in the age segmentation comes both from those in the 36-38 age range and the 74-75 category. She reached approximately 42 percent support with both of these groups. A second low point for her, 31 percent, is found among those in the 58-60 age segment.

The pendulum swing charting the White female vote is almost identical to that of the male category, but the support numbers for Harris were uniformly higher. Still, she is generally underwater even within this female segment. The Harris highwater mark with White women is 51 percent found in the 27-29 age range. The low is 40 percent within the 57-59 age grouping.

Looking at minority voters, we see Trump’s improvement scores comparing his 2024 support performance to that from 2020. The President gained 12 percentage points among self-described moderate Hispanics and eight percent overall. Among Asians, his improvement percentage among the moderates was nine percent and six percent in the overall Asian grouping.

Despite much coverage of Trump’s stronger standing within the Black community, his strongest segment was only a plus two percent among self-described conservative Blacks, and just one percent overall. Comparing his 2016 Black support factor with 2024, we see a greater gap. Matched with his performance from eight years ago, Trump improved eight percentage points with conservative Blacks and an average of four percent within the entire Black voter cell sample.

Within the male People of Color category, the youngest voters perform best for President Trump. Here, the 18-20 age segment recorded only a 50 percent support factor for Harris. The male chart then continues upward until reaching an apex of 70 percent Harris support within the 74-75 year olds before tapering off a few points as the male People of Color voter segment moves into the 80s.

The female People of Color segments, across the board, are Harris’ strongest supporters with little variance. From the youngest to oldest voter segments, the female POC category performed between 72 and 80 percent favorable for Harris.

As we can see, the Trump campaign opened the conversion door for these traditionally Democratic racial and age voter population segments. It is now up to the GOP strategists to see if they can cement these types of numbers for future Republican candidates.

Rep. Higgins Won’t Run for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 24, 2025

Senate

Louisiana Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) / Photo by Joshua Sukoff

Five-term Louisiana Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) announced late last week that he will not challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) in the state’s new partisan primary system scheduled to take effect next year.

While saying he believes Sen. Cassidy can be beaten in the ensuing Republican primary, Rep. Higgins indicated that he can better serve his country and party by continuing his career in the US House.

Higgins said, “Now, it is my considered determination that, current engagement in the House being incredibly significant, it may be ultimately more beneficial to the Republic that I remain in service to the MAGA America First agenda as a senior Republican in the House of Representatives,” according to a news report on The Washington Times news site.

The Congressman also cited his close relationship with the chamber’s top leaders, Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise both from Louisiana, as another benefit to remaining in the House. Higgins is also chairman of the Border Security and Enforcement Subcommittee of the House Homeland Security Committee, which he states is another strong reason to continue his current career.

The one published Louisiana Senate poll was released at the end of February, from the JMC Analytics & Polling, a Louisiana based survey research entity.

According to the JMC results at the time (Feb. 26-28; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters), State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming, an announced Senate candidate, posts a 40-27 percent lead over Sen. Cassidy in a head-to-head pairing. When other potential candidates, state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia) and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, are added to the ballot test questionnaire, Fleming leads Cassidy 29-27 percent with the remaining individuals receiving respective six and two percent preference figures.

This is the first time Sen. Cassidy will face a partisan Republican primary. Last year, the state legislature, at the behest of Gov. Jeff Landry (R), changed the state law to reinstitute a partisan primary structure for certain offices, including all federal positions. Previously, all candidates were listed only on the general election ballot. If no one received majority support in a particular race, a runoff election between the top two finishers was held during the first week in December.

Critics of the previous system argued, especially for freshman federal office holders, that they were starting at a disadvantage in Washington since they were still campaigning when the rest of the new members were going through orientation. Additionally, they were ineligible to run for party leadership posts nor present at the critical time to lobby for coveted committee slots.

The new closed partisan primary where only registered party members are eligible to vote is scheduled for April 18, 2026. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers advance to a May 30 secondary election.

Sen. Cassidy’s biggest negative, of which he will be reminded of many times during the primary campaign, is that he voted to impeach President Donald Trump at the end of the latter’s first term. He was also questioning a couple of the Trump cabinet appointees, in particular HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but in the end voted in favor of all.

While a Trump endorsement for a Republican primary candidate is a major positive in crowded fields, it will likely be an even more important factor in this Louisiana Senate primary. Should the President endorse a candidate other than Sen. Cassidy, the incumbent could quickly become the underdog.

In the new primary configuration, it is likely the most conservative and pro-Trump supporters would dominate the voting bloc, a group where Sen. Cassidy could show weakness. Another negative for the incumbent may be the size of the candidate field. If more contenders enter the race, which is expected, the chances of Sen. Cassidy being forced to a runoff increase.

The runoff history of incumbents is not particularly favorable. Already, a majority of the primary voters would have chosen another candidate, thus giving the incumbent a smaller base from which to start. He or she must then convince a significant percentage of voters who supported a challenger in the first vote to return to his or her fold in the runoff election. Certainly, incumbents have recovered to win runoffs, but the typical outcome leans toward an incumbent loss.

The Louisiana race, along with the likely Republican primary challenge to Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), will be a closely monitored nomination battle as the election cycle matures.

California Dreamin’

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 21, 2025

Governor

Ric Grenell

An article from the News of the United States (NOTUS) organization published earlier in the week sheds some new light about a potential 2026 Governor’s race in California.
In fact, the article includes comments from several of the state’s GOP House members stating their belief that Republican Ric Grenell might have an outside chance of denying Kamala Harris the office if both choose to run next year.

Grenell is a Trump Administration official who is currently a special envoy along with serving as president and interim executive director of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. Previously, in the first Trump Administration, Grenell was the US Ambassador to Germany and served as the Acting Director of National Intelligence. He has indicated that if Harris were to enter the race, running for Governor of California would be of interest to him.

“I think that we’ve got a good opportunity here because especially if Kamala Harris runs, I think that this will be a race that is very winnable,” says Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento). “I think that there very much is a coalition of Californians who would support a candidate who can deliver on that basic quality of life.”

Rep. Kiley is likely too optimistic. While President Donald Trump substantially improved his political standing within California, Kamala Harris still recorded a 58.5 – 38.3 percent statewide victory. In 2020, Joe Biden’s victory spread over Trump was 63.5 – 34.3 percent.

In 2020, Trump won 23 of California’s 58 counties. In 2024, he performed much better, actually winning a majority of the state’s counties (33 of 58). His problem: in the top 10 most populous counties, Trump prevailed in only three.

Of the top three population counties, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Orange, which account for 40 percent of the total California population, Trump was only able to average 39.7 percent of the vote. While this number is slightly better than his statewide percentage, the major liberal northern California counties of San Francisco, Alameda, San Mateo, Marin, and Santa Clara are not included in the top three most populous. Here, the current President averaged only 20.9 percent.

In 2020, Trump’s average numbers in the three largest counties were even worse: 36.3 percent. In the five sizable northern California counties, he posted a woeful mean average vote percentage of just 18.3.

While the chances of Grenell, or any other Republican, winning the Governorship in 2026 are virtually nil, Trump did increase his standing when compared to 2020 in 57 counties, which is an encouraging number for the GOP. Harris also under-performed President Joe Biden’s California vote totals in all but one county.

While the general election may be out of reach for a Republican, advancing from the state’s jungle primary apparatus is not.

Former Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) has already announced that she will run for Governor. While earlier saying she would stand aside for Harris, her announcement tour made no such declaration. Therefore, if she and Harris are on the all-party ballot with a Republican such as Grenell, it certainly would be within the realm of possibility to see either Porter or Harris not qualify for the general election. Under such a scenario, the primary voters would virtually elect the next Governor.

The other California Republican problem is the large amount of money needed to compete. Former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) was able to advance into the 2024 Senate general election largely because eventual winner Adam Schiff (D) ran ads in the more conservative regions of the state attacking Garvey as being too conservative and close to Trump.

Knowing that he would beat Garvey, or any other Republican in the general election, Schiff virtually financed Garvey’s campaign effort to propel him past Porter, who at that time was also running for Senate.

It is unlikely that we will see such a scenario in 2026. Therefore, Republicans will be forced to raise a large amount of early money to help secure a general election slot and then hope that the political environment would be such that a GOP candidate could score a long-shot win. With so many Senate races in play during this election cycle, it will be a tough sell to convince national major donors to back a Republican gubernatorial contender.

While Grenell may be one of the better candidates that California Republicans could attract, his chances of winning are likely far less than those beginning to promote him would publicly concede.

Special Elections Preview

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 20, 2025

House

The deaths of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Sylvester Turner (D-TX) necessitate special elections being called to fill the balance of their current terms. Candidates are starting to present themselves in each of these situations, and one of the specials now has an official election calendar.

The two impending special congressional elections occurring on April 1 are both in Florida. State Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis (R) is the prohibitive favorite to win the open 1st District and succeed resigned Congressman Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/ Pensacola). State Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) is primed to win the state’s open 6th CD. That position is vacant because previous incumbent Rep. Mike Waltz (R) resigned to become President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor.

Once these elections are complete, the House will move to a 220R – 213D partisan division. The Grijalva and Turner vacancies account for the final two House seats.

AZ-7

The late Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson)

Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Grijalva. The party primaries in accordance with the Arizona statutes governing the filling of a congressional vacancy will be held on July 15, with the special general election calendared on Sept. 23. The candidate filing deadline is April 14.

Therefore, the 7th District will remain vacant until late September when a new member will be chosen. The late Congressman’s daughter, Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, will likely be one of the top contenders. Grijalva said she will make a final decision about running after her father’s funeral on March 26.

Tucson Mayor Regina Romero (D), who would be a major contender, has already said that she will not enter the special congressional election. Former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez (D), who is expected to become a candidate, has so far been non-committal when asked to make a public statement about his political intentions. Hernandez’s sisters, however, state Rep. Alma Hernandez (D-Tucson) and state Rep. Consuelo Hernandez (D-Pima County) both say they will not run for Congress.

The Pima County-anchored CD is safely Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+27. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 65.5D – 32.3R partisan lean. The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators rank AZ-7 as the 89th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference.

Expect further candidate announcements to come after Rep. Grijalva is laid to rest.

TX-18

The late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston)

Though the special election in Texas to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has not yet been scheduled, candidates are beginning to come forward.

Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) – not to be confused with Harris County District Attorney Sean Teare – resigned his position and announced that he will enter the special election. Significantly, he does so with the endorsement of Erica Carter, the late-Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s (D) daughter. Carter represented the constituency after her mother died and before Turner’s term began, and some speculated that she might enter the special election battle.

Former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-US Senate and House candidate Amanda Edwards (D) is also poised to announce her candidacy and may do so as early as today. Community Relations consultant and former Houston City Council candidate James Joseph (D) and former congressional aide Isaiah Martin (D) are also announced contenders.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule the special election at some point but has no legal time requirement under Texas election law to do so. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-18 as D+43, so there is little doubt that a Democrat will hold the seat. There is a good possibility we will see a double-Democratic runoff in the eventual special runoff election. A secondary election will be scheduled if no candidate receives majority support in the first vote.

The Hot Senate Cycle

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Senate

Examining developing political events, we are already seeing the prelude to what might become the most competitive US Senate campaign cycle in decades.

Since Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) declared in late January that he will not seek re-election, three other Senators announced that they will also retire at the end of the current term. Depending upon the candidates each party fields, all of these newly open races have the potential of becoming expensive toss-up campaigns.

As we know, the other open seats are found in Kentucky (Sen. Mitch McConnell-R), Minnesota (Sen. Tina Smith-D), and New Hampshire (Sen. Jeanne Shaheen-D). Should the Kentucky Democrats convince Gov. Andy Beshear to run and likewise the New Hampshire Republicans recruit former Gov. Chris Sununu, these two states would certainly host major toss-up campaigns. Absent Beshear and Sununu running, each party would be favored to hold their respective seat.

Democrats expect to have the advantage in Minnesota, but it is unclear at this early point who their party will nominate. With Gov. Tim Walz (D) not running for Senate, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen have announced their candidacies, while Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is listed as a possible contender. If Republicans can recruit a credible nominee, this open seat could transform into a competitive battle.

Perhaps the Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbent is North Carolina’s Thom Tillis; Democrats are trying to convince former Gov. Roy Cooper to enter that state’s Senate race. Like many others, Cooper is said to have presidential ambitions that could forestall a Senate challenge.

National Democrats would also like to see Maine US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), but this is unlikely to happen. Golden is a former Collins staff member, and if he does run statewide it is more likely he will enter the open Governor’s race.

Two other Republican Governors are being recruited to run for the Senate, but it is unclear at this point if either will declare a bid. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin would pair with Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Mark Warner (D-VA), but there is no guarantee that either will make the move. Both have presidential aspirations and may not want to test their prospects for a national campaign in a Senate race where they stand a reasonable chance of losing.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), reversing himself from his earlier statements and now saying he may well enter his state’s open Governor’s race, means we could see a very crowded, but determinative nominating campaign to succeed the Senator as the Republican nominee. Such an individual would then become a heavy favorite to win the general election, but the nominating process would be highly competitive.

Alaska Democrats would like to recruit former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) to challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), but the lure of an open Governor’s race will likely be more tempting for Peltola.

Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R) stands for a second term next year, and the Democrats’ best potential candidate for this race is term-limited Governor Laura Kelly who cannot succeed herself. Kelly or Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park) would be the Democrats’ best options for the Senate, but at this point there is little indication that either plan to run.

Expect, however, that Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) will make a strong push to convince one of those two to enter the Jayhawk State Senate race.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is likely to also experience a competitive re-election race but not for the general election. With his state returning to a partisan primary system, Sen. Cassidy, for the first time, will have to face a strong Republican challenger before only Republican voters. One such individual, State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming (R), is already campaigning and leading in a late February poll (JMC Analytics; Feb. 26-28; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; Fleming 40 – Cassidy 27 percent).

Should Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) stumble in the early 2026 Republican primary, Democrats would have a chance of putting Texas in play particularly if flawed Attorney General Ken Paxton becomes the Republican nominee. National Democrats would like to see 2024 Senate nominee and former Congressman Colin Allred run again.

Additionally, two appointed Senators, Florida’s Ashley Moody (R) and Jon Husted of Ohio (R) must run in special elections to fill the balance of the current terms and both will be expensive campaigns in large states.

If all of the most prominent potential candidates were to run in these 15 potentially competitive states, we would see a very volatile set of US Senate campaigns.

Chances are, however, the list of eventual nominees from both parties will be a bit more mundane than in the aforementioned outlined scenarios. Several of these big-name potential Senate contenders may be more inclined, like former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who just bowed out of the Michigan race, to follow the presidential winds.

Florida: Donalds vs. DeSantis

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 17, 2025

Governor

Florida First Lady, Casey DeSantis / Photo by Gage Skidmore

The first poll testing a potentially major battle between two national conservative movement factions was just released.

The impending open Florida Republican gubernatorial primary could feature the state’s First Lady, Casey DeSantis, whose incumbent husband Ron DeSantis is ineligible to seek a third term, and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) who already carries President Donald Trump’s endorsement.

At this point, Rep. Donalds is an announced gubernatorial candidate while Ms. DeSantis has yet to declare her intentions. Gov. DeSantis, however, has publicly hinted that she is at least considering running.

The Fabrizio Lee & Associates research firm went into the field to provide an early read on such a race. Their poll (Feb. 26-27 and released March 10; 600 likely Florida Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees Rep. Donalds jumping out to a slight 34-30 percent lead over Ms. DeSantis. An additional three percent would support Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, who is also a potential GOP gubernatorial candidate.

The results get even more interesting when the respective endorsements are filtered. When the respondents are informed that President Trump publicly supports Rep. Donalds, the ballot test soars to 45-23 percent in the Congressman’s favor.

The contest changes when further information is shared. While it is certainly not surprising that Gov. DeSantis would endorse his wife but when the respondents are told that he will, the ballot test flips. The altered result projects Ms. DeSantis moving ahead of Rep. Donalds, 35-33 percent.

The caveat relating to the previous push question is the respondents were told of Gov. DeSantis’ endorsement of his wife prior to being informed of President Trump’s support for Rep. Donalds, and this situation is highlighted in the Fabrizio Lee analysis.

When all of the endorsement information is presented to the sampling universe, Rep. Donalds reassumes the lead at 38-28 percent over Ms. DeSantis with Simpson increasing to five percent support. Therefore, it is this last ballot test that should be considered the benchmark for future monitoring of this proposed race.

Whether this campaign actually transpires is another question. Ms. DeSantis has certainly not committed to running and is likely a long way from making a final decision. The 2026 Florida primary is not scheduled until Aug. 18, with a state candidate filing deadline of June 12. Therefore, much time remains to contemplate whether she will become an official candidate.

Certainly, the DeSantis decision involves more than calculating victory chances for the First Lady to succeed her husband. Since Ron DeSantis has national ambitions, the political analysis will involve just how much risk the family wants to assume in entering a campaign where a DeSantis could lose to a Trump-endorsed opponent.

At this point, the early presidential political climate doesn’t appear to positively favor a return appearance for Gov. DeSantis despite what should be his appealing record of accomplishment for a conservative voter base.

Since Vice President J.D. Vance is already considered the leading prospect to succeed President Trump as the next Republican nominee, he will be in an extremely strong position to capture the party nomination unless things go badly for the Administration toward the end of their current term.

Therefore, the 2028 presidential playing field will also factor heavily in deciding whether Casey DeSantis runs for Governor in 2026. In any event, we can expect to see the Donalds-DeSantis political drama continue over the next several months.