By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025
House
We have been witnessing recent 2026 campaign action in some of the closest 2024 US House races. Several re-matches are on the political horizon.
Today and tomorrow, we will review 23 of the closest ‘24 House contests and identify which of the districts could host a re-match campaign. Part I will cover the most competitive CDs from Alaska through Iowa.
AK-AL:
- Nick Begich III (R) unseated then-Rep. Mary Peltola (D)
- 51.2 – 48.8% — Vote Difference: 7,876
Reports suggest that former Rep. Peltola is getting Democratic Party and community leader pressure to run for Governor, US Senate, and US House. There is a good chance that she chooses the open Governor’s race.
Therefore, a re-match between she and Rep. Begich currently appears as a long shot. No candidate from either party has yet come forward to declare interest in challenging Begich.
AZ-1:
- Rep. David Schweikert (R) defeated State Rep. Amish Shah (D)
- 51.9 – 48.1% — Vote Difference: 16,572
Veteran Rep. Schweikert, now in a more competitive post-redistricting seat, won a relatively comfortable victory over then-State Representative and physician Amish Shah. At this point, Dr. Shah is signaling returning for a re-match but will again have competition in the Democratic primary.
Administrative Law Judge Brian Del Vecchio (D) has already announced his congressional candidacy. Former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who placed a close third in the 2024 First District Democratic primary, is viewed as a possible candidate as is National Guardsman Jimmy McCain (D), the son of the late Sen. John McCain (R). The 2026 AZ-1 race will again be a highly competitive race.
AZ-2:
- Rep. Eli Crane (R) defeated former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez (D)
- 54.5 – 45.5% — Vote Difference: 36,450
Rep. Crane defended his northeastern Arizona district with a nine-point win, but this was a closer than expected contest from what is regarded as a safe Republican seat (FiveThirtyEight data rating: R+15). Nez spent over $5.4 million, which put his campaign on the political map.
The 2024 challenger has already announced that he will return for a re-match and no Democratic primary opposition is expected. This race could become a second-tier target.
AZ-6:
- Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) topped ex-state Senator Kirsten Engel (D)
- 50 – 47.5% — Vote Difference: 10,822
The 2024 campaign marked the second time Ciscomani and Engel fought to a close finish. In last November’s race, Rep. Ciscomani, while still winning a close matchup, almost doubled his victory margin from 2022 when the newly constructed seat was open.
Engel is indicating she will not return for a third run, and retired Marine Corps Sgt. Jo Mendoza (D) has already declared her candidacy. The nature of the Tucson-anchored southeastern Arizona 6th CD is tightly partisan, so we can expect seeing a close finish here in 2026 and likely in every election year throughout the remainder of the decade.
CA-9:
- Rep. Josh Harder (D) outpaced Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R)
- 51.8 – 48.2% — Vote Difference: 9,009
Republicans recruited a strong candidate in Mayor Kevin Lincoln, who won an election in the 9th District’s most Democratic locality. He is reportedly undecided about seeking a re-match with Rep. Harder who outspent the Mayor in a 2:1 ratio. It is likely that only Mayor Lincoln could put this seat in play for 2026.
CA-13:
- Adam Gray (D) unseated Rep. John Duarte (R)
- 50.04 – 49.96% — Vote Difference: 187
The closest US House contest in the country went the Democrats’ way as former state Assemblyman Adam Gray returned for a 2024 re-match with MDuarte and this time landed on the winning side of a razor-thin margin of 187 votes from 210,921 ballots cast. In 2022, Duarte won with a 564-vote spread.
Duarte is lobbying for a position in the new Trump Administration as the Administrator of the Bureau of Reclamation. He says he is open to running for the House again, so it remains to be seen if a third Gray-Duarte campaign will transpire.
The former Congressman losing was a bit of a surprise considering President Trump carried the 13th District by six percentage points. One would have believed such a coattail margin would have been enough to bring an incumbent Representative through.
CA-45:
- Derek Tran (D) unseated Rep. Michelle Steel (R)
- 50.1 – 49.9% — Vote Difference: 653
The second-closest House race in the country was also found in California, as attorney Derek Tran just slipped past two-term Rep. Steel by 653 votes from 315,875 ballots cast. This is a race where a re-match was immediately announced, as Steel said she would make a return appearance in 2026 right after the election and filed a campaign committee before 2024 ended.
Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates this seat as D+5, Steel has already proven she is very competitive within the region. This will once again be a hotly contested race next year that could go either way.
CO-8:
- State Rep. Gabe Evans (R) unseated Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D)
- 48.9 – 48.2% — Vote Difference: 2,449
In a district designed as politically marginal and one that would consistently reflect the will of a tight partisan electorate, Colorado’s 8th CD in its two terms of existence has performed as intended. Both Caraveo in 2022 and Evans in 2024 won the seat with less than majority support. We can again expect a highly competitive campaign next year.
It does not appear that Caraveo will attempt to reclaim the seat that she lost in November. Already, however, the Democrats have a new candidate in the person of state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) who has officially announced his congressional candidacy. CO-8 will become a top targeted 2026 national campaign.
CT-5:
- Rep. Jahana Hayes (D) defeated ex-state Sen. George Logan (R)
- 53.4 – 46.6% — Vote Difference: 23,010
After surviving a close call with then-state Sen. Logan in 2022, Rep. Hayes expanded her victory margin and has likely sent her opponent into political exile at least for a while. There is no indication that Logan will return for a third try especially since he lost ground in his second attempt. The district is competitive (FiveThirtyEight: D+3), so expect the GOP to recruit another strong challenger, but probably not Logan.
IA-1:
- Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated ex-St. Rep. Christina Bohannan (D)
- 48.4 – 48.2% — Vote Difference: 799
The third-closest House race was present in southeast Iowa. Four years ago, a different configuration of this district delivered the closest election of the decade, a six-vote win for Miller-Meeks.
This campaign signaled that a close general election would occur when Rep. Miller-Meeks recorded a low 56 percent win over her GOP challenger David Pautsch, an opponent who spent only $38,382 on his campaign. Pautsch has announced he will return for a primary re-match and promises to run a more professional campaign.
In the 2024 general election, Rep. Miller-Meeks again defeated — and this time by a much smaller margin — ex-state Rep. Bohannan. Whether a third version of this pairing happens in 2026 remains to be seen, but Bohannan has not ruled out another comeback attempt.
Expect the Congresswoman to move to the right to blunt her primary opposition. Regardless of who the Democrats put forth this general election campaign will evolve into another political dogfight.