Daily Archives: February 6, 2025

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 6, 2025

House

Yesterday, we looked at the six closest House races of the 2024 election cycle, and today we conclude our report with the other five contests where the winner finished with less than 51 percent of the vote.

We begin with three Pennsylvania races, two of which flipped from Democrat to Republican and are a large part of the reason the GOP held its slim majority.

In the Lehigh Valley’s 7th Congressional District, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) unseated three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) with a 50.5 – 49.5 percent victory margin translating into a vote spread of 4,062 votes. Rep. Wild had two close calls in her previous elections, but facing a different opponent who was better able to take advantage of increased Republican voter registration along with better national messaging proved enough to turn the tables. Freshman Rep. Mackenzie became one of just four Republican challengers nationally to defeat a House Democratic incumbent.

A similar fate awaited Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) in the congressional seat just to the north of the Lehigh Valley. Cartwright, first elected in 2012 from a district much more favorable to Democratic candidates, lost in November to Republican businessman Rob Bresnahan. The GOP victory margin here was 50.8 – 49.2 percent, meaning a vote difference of 6,252. The PA-8 district, carrying a rating of R+8, was the second most Republican district to abandon a Democratic incumbent in this election. Additionally, Rep. Cartwright was the most senior Democrat to lose his 2024 bid for re-election.

In central Pennsylvania, Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/ Harrisburg), no stranger to competitive campaigns, clinched a seventh term over former local news anchor Janelle Stelson (D) by 5,133 votes, or 50.6 – 49.4 percent. This was Perry’s closest re-election battle, but the redistricted 10th CD is much more Democratic than the version from which he originally won back in 2012. Furthermore, Stelson proved to be Rep. Perry’s most formidable opponent. It remains to be seen if she will return for a re-match in 2026.

Turning south, first-term North Carolina Democratic Congressman Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) claimed a second term with a tight 49.5 – 47.8 percent win over retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout (R) in a redistricted seat that became much more Republican than the district Davis won two years earlier.

The legislature passed the 2023 North Carolina redistricting plan after Republicans assumed control of the state Supreme Court. This development led to a uniform redistricting approach between the courts and the state legislature. The new district boundaries not only made Davis’ 1st District more Republican but converted three Democratic seats to the GOP column. This map, along with the Democratic incumbent defeats in Pennsylvania and Colorado, largely accounted for Republicans holding the House majority.

The final close race is located in the Omaha, Nebraska area. As we know, Nebraska and Maine allow their congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote. The Cornhusker State’s 2nd District has voted Democratic for President in the most recent consecutive elections, but then turned around to repeatedly re-elect Republican Congressman Don Bacon (R-Papillion).

In the 2024 election, Bacon won a fifth term with a 50.9 – 49.1 percent vote margin (5,829 vote spread), which is a consistent result with his most recent re-election battles. NE-2 is becoming one of the more quintessential swing districts in the country and, along with Maine’s 2nd District that swings in the opposite direction, attracts a great deal of national political attention because of having potential undue influence on the presidential race.

We can expect to see all eleven of the ‘24 closest House elections once again becoming battleground regions in the 2026 election cycle. With the House having one of its closest majorities in history, every competitive district will have a major effect upon the full House outcome; and, with it determination over which party will assume control over the next Congress.