By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025
Governor
New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill
Public Policy Polling (Jan. 22-23; 615 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters) finds Rep. Sherrill clinging to a 16-11-9-9-9-5 percent edge over New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, while the next three contenders, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, are all tied and slightly ahead of Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff).
A day earlier, Emerson College finished their statewide poll (Jan. 18-21; 437 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters; 334 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) which also saw a jumbled Democratic field with most voters responding that they have yet to make a determinative decision.
According to the Emerson data, Rep. Sherrill also records a small lead but with a spread even tighter than PPP’s finding. The Emerson ballot test projects a 10-8-8-7-7-4 percent posting with Sherrill leading followed by Spiller, Mayor Baraka, Rep. Gottheimer, Sweeney, and Mayor Fulop. Again, this data suggests that the Democratic primary race is wide open, and all six contenders could still develop momentum to win the June 10 plurality primary.
The eventual Democratic nominee, according to the Emerson poll, is likely to face 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, a former state Assemblyman who lost to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) in a 51-48 percent finish that was much closer than expected.
The Emerson poll also forecasts Ciattarelli with a large but not insurmountable Republican primary lead. According to the ballot test results, the 2021 gubernatorial nominee would lead radio talk show host Bill Spadea, 26-13 percent, with state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Plainfield) posting four percent, while five other minor candidates poll support figures of three percent or less.
Political party registration in New Jersey, according to the NJ Division of Elections latest data (Feb. 1, 2025, report), finds Democrats holding a 37.4 – 24.4 percent edge in partisan affiliation. A total of 37.0 percent are unaffiliated, with slightly less than one percent of the electorate being registered in a minor political party.
Republicans, however, have gained a half-percentage point in relation to the Democrats in the three-plus months since the 2024 election. This translates into a net Republican gain of 23,061 voters. In this period, Republican registration has grown 22,686 while the Democrats have dropped 375 registered voters. In January alone, the GOP net gain factor was 10,480 individuals. Should this trend continue through the 2025 election period, the November contest could turn into a highly competitive political affair.
Resources will, of course, be a major factor in the candidates moving forward. One would believe that both Reps. Sherril and Gottheimer would be dominant on the fundraising front, yet the state rules are different. Both Representatives have become two of the most prolific fundraisers in the US House, but they face a major obstacle in their respective gubernatorial bids.
Under current New Jersey financial disclosure reports, both Reps. Sherrill and Gottheimer are on the low end of the spectrum (each raising under $1.7 million – Fulop leads all candidates with just over $2.8 million raised), but that doesn’t include the transfers the federal candidates can execute. Here is where the state law penalizes the two House members. Under the state’s campaign finance law, only $17,300 can be transferred from a candidate’s committee to another committee.
According to the year-end Federal Election Commission reports, Rep. Gottheimer had just over $20 million in his congressional account, meaning he can only transfer less than one percent of his available funds. Rep. Sherrill posted just over $183,000 cash-on-hand, which means $166,000 is nontransferable.
Featuring such a crowded and unclear Democratic primary with all candidates basically on even footing, the New Jersey Governor’s race promises to be one of the more interesting statewide contests slated for this year.