By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 24, 2025
Senate
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) / Photo by Gage Skidmore
McConnell’s Background — Sen. McConnell had held a GOP leadership position from the beginning of 2003 until the Senate convened this year. The McConnell retirement decision had been expected, especially with potential successors already oiling their campaign machines anticipating an open US Senate contest.
Sen. McConnell was first elected as a Kentucky Senator in 1984 and, upon completion of his current seventh term, will depart tied with the late Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) as the seventh longest-serving Senator in US history.
After originally unseating then-Sen. Dee Huddleston (D) by just 5,269 votes, Sen. McConnell went on to win six more Senate elections averaging 56.6 percent of the vote against serious competition in most of those campaigns. The Senator became a focal point for Democratic money, which propelled opposition candidates into strong positions.
In 1996, Sen. McConnell defeated Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear’s father, Steve Beshear, who would later serve two terms as Governor in his own right. Prior to winning the Senate seat, McConnell was twice elected as the Judge-Executive of Jefferson County.
Sen. McConnell, while not considered a compelling national spokesman for the Republican Party, was clearly one of the most effective Senate Leaders in history. He will be particularly noted for his adroit strategies in confirming a multitude of judges during the George W. Bush and Trump presidencies. Though currently at odds with the President of his own party, Sen. McConnell has cast an indelible mark in Senate history throughout his long career in the chamber.
What are the implications of Sen. McConnell’s retirement? — The internal Republican battle to replace the outgoing Senator has been bubbling beneath the political surface and is already transitioning to public warfare. Former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron (R) immediately announced for the Senate upon McConnell’s public exiting statement. Two weeks ago, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) indicated that he would run for the Senate should McConnell retire.
Shortly after the Barr declaration, the Club for Growth launched attack ads against the Congressman, obviously in opposition to him for the Senate nomination. Immediately after the McConnell announcement, Rep. Barr hit Cameron as an “embarrassment to President Trump” for losing the 2023 gubernatorial race even when having a Trump endorsement. The Barr forces supported their claim by reiterating that Trump carried Kentucky by 30 percentage points in the November election.
The Democratic leadership will now make a major attempt to recruit Gov. Andy Beshear (D) into the open Senate race. Despite Kentucky being a solid red state in federal races, it is still very competitive, as Beshear has proved, in state contests. The Governor was re-elected in 2023 with 52.5 percent of the vote (over Cameron’s 47.5 percent), after unseating Gov. Matt Bevin (R) in a close 2019 result — 5,136 votes from more than 1.32 million ballots cast.
With the open Kentucky Senate race now officially underway, Blue Grass State Democrats may face the same problem as Georgia Republicans. They both see their own Governor in potentially strong position to compete in, and potentially win, a current Senate race — the Georgia Republican leadership wants Gov. Brian Kemp to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff — but the lure of a potential 2028 presidential candidacy makes both Beshear and Kemp so far hesitant to commit to running in 2026.
The McConnell retirement means there will be at least three open Senate seats in the 2026 election. Within the last three weeks, Democratic Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Tina Smith (D-MN) announced that they would not seek re-election.
While the 2026 map favors the Democrats in that they must only defend 13 seats as opposed to the Republicans’ 22, they now will be forced to spend heavily to support a pair of open seat nominees in Michigan and Minnesota, states that promise to be hot targets.
Thus, the Democratic leadership will be under greater pressure to put the Kentucky Senate seat in play and realistically recruiting Gov. Beshear is their only chance of seriously challenging the Blue Grass Republicans in November of 2026.