Tag Archives: Rep. Nancy Mace

Nancy Mace for Governor in SC

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 5, 2025

Governor

Two-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

As has been expected for months, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) yesterday officially entered the open South Carolina Governor’s campaign.

The June 2025 primary already has the makings of a Republican Battle Royal as at least five contenders will be competing for the party nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R).

Rep. Mace will be facing four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale); Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette; Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who announced last week; and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg).

The personal battle rages between Mace and Wilson, which is likely to carry over into the campaign. Rep. Mace accuses AG Wilson of not being aggressive in his position and particularly so regarding her accusations against a former fiancé and several of his associates for alleged sexual-related offenses.

Rep. Mace claims Wilson has ignored the case. The AG explains that his office has no jurisdiction over individual cases and that the South Carolina Law Enforcement Division (SLED), which does have jurisdiction, is addressing the matter. The SLED spokesperson indicates that a large number of interviews have been conducted regarding the Mace complaints, and the investigation has not been completed. The Congresswoman’s former fiancé and his associates all vehemently deny any wrongdoing.

The personal battle between who most believe are the two leading candidates could prove a distraction in the gubernatorial nomination contest. Often, when two candidates begin to attack each other neither win, and another comes from the outside to snatch the election. It remains to be seen how this race unfolds, but we can certainly expect major campaign fireworks and a great deal of national political attention.

The South Carolina election format is unique in that the state maintains a two-week runoff election after the primary should no candidate receive majority support. With a well-funded and crowded field such as we will have in the race, the top two finishers advancing to the quick runoff is a virtual certainty.

The Palmetto State primary is scheduled for June 9, with the runoff, if necessary, calendared for June 23. The eventual Republican winner will become the prohibitive favorite to claim the Governorship in November of next year.

Rep. Mace’s decision to enter the Governor’s race will leave her 1st Congressional District open for the first time in a regular election cycle since 2010. The seat was open for a special election in 2013. Then-Rep. Tim Scott (R) was appointed to the US Senate that year, thus opening the 1st District. Former Governor and ex-1st District Congressman Mark Sanford (R) won the special election.

In 2018, however, Sanford was defeated for renomination, thus opening the seat in the general election. Democrat Joe Cunningham won the 2018 election and became the first Democrat to represent the district in 30 years. Two years later, Mace, then a state Representative, unseated Cunningham to return the seat to the GOP column.

In her two re-elections, Rep. Mace has averaged 57 percent of the vote, which is consistent with the Dave’s Redistricting App’s reported partisan lean. According to the DRA statisticians, SC-1 posts a 55.6R – 42.3D partisan lean, which is almost identical to the statewide partisan lean of 55.8R – 42.3D.

With Rep. Mace vacating the Charleston area anchored district, that brings to 24 the number of open House seats before the next election. Of the two dozen total, 13 are Republican-held versus 11 for the Democrats. Four of the seats (3D and 1R) will be filled in special elections before the end of the year, thus reducing the regular election open seat count to 20.

The 1st District begins almost at the Georgia border and then stretches northeast along the Atlantic Ocean to the city of Georgetown’s outskirts. The district includes the communities of Beaufort, Hilton Head, Mt. Pleasant, and Moncks Corner, along with James Island, Kiawah Island, Sullivan’s Island, and the Isle of Palms. The 1st CD contains Beaufort and Berkeley Counties, along with parts of Charleston, Colleton, Dorchester, and Jasper counties.

President Trump carried the district with a 56-43 percent margin over Kamala Harris in 2024, and defeated President Biden here, 53-45 percent in 2020.

Norman Announces for South
Carolina Governor; Mace to Follow?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Governor

South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill)

South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), as expected, announced his gubernatorial candidacy over the weekend. Norman becomes the fourth official Republican gubernatorial candidate who will compete in the campaign to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R), and others may soon follow.

Immediately upon hearing of the Norman announcement, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) released a statement indicating that she will decide upon her political future “in the next couple of days.”

The Norman declaration opens his 5th Congressional District, which is considered safely Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.4R – 39.8D). Just to the southwest the Norman district, Georgia Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) also formally announced his statewide bid thus leaving open his safely Republican 10th District seat for a US Senate run.

Reps. Norman and Collins joining the list of those leaving, or have left, the House means that 22 seats will be open before the next election, including four that are vacant and will be filled in special election cycles. Of the 22, Republicans currently hold 12 seats and Democrats’ ten, but few open contests will be competitive in the next general election.

In the Palmetto State’s Republican gubernatorial primary race to date are four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of veteran Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale/West Columbia), Lt. Gov. Paula Evette, and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Boiling Springs), along with Rep. Norman. State Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins) and attorney Mullins McLeod have announced for the Democratic nomination.

Ralph Norman was first elected to the US House in a 2017 special election and since the regular 2018 election has had little trouble holding his seat. Prior to serving in Congress, Norman was elected to six non-consecutive terms in the South Carolina House of Representatives.

The 5th District sits in the northern part of South Carolina and borders the Charlotte, North Carolina metropolitan area. The seat is anchored in York County with a population of just under 300,000. Rock Hill is the county’s largest city.

The 5th also contains Cherokee, Chester, Fairfield, Kershaw, Lancaster, and Union counties, along with parts of Spartanburg and Sumter counties. In 2024, President Trump carried the district with a 60.7 – 37.9 percent victory spread over Kamala Harris. In 2020, Trump defeated President Biden here, 58.4 – 40.2 percent.

A crowded 5th District Republican primary is expected to form, but the only name circulating at this early point is state Sen. Wes Climer (R-Rock Hill). Democratic attorney Alex Harper, who appears as a credible candidate, announced for the party nomination well before Rep. Norman declared his gubernatorial intentions.

Should Rep. Mace follow suit and enter the Governor’s campaign, we can expect a very spirited statewide GOP primary among at least five candidates with the potential of others joining. Former Governor and ex-Congressman Mark Sanford earlier made comments indicating that he is considering entering the race, but little has been said lately. State Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey (R-Edgefield/Aiken) is another potential candidate.

If Rep. Mace leaves the 1st District, we can expect nomination battles for what will be an open Charleston-anchored CD in both parties. The 1st is somewhat more competitive than Rep. Norman’s 5th CD (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 55.6R – 42.3D), but the eventual Republican nominee will clearly be favored. Still, in a US House with a slim Republican majority and chamber control again on the line in 2026, an open district such as SC-1 will be in competitive mode next year.

Of the four vacant seats in the House, we will see special general or initial jungle elections held on Sept. 9 (VA-11), Sept. 23 (AZ-7), and Nov. 4 (TX-18).

Now that Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) has officially left the House, Gov. Bill Lee (R) has set the election calendar. The special party primary date will be October 7th, with a special general election tabbed for Dec. 2. The eventual winner will fill the balance of the current term.

Democrats are heavy favorites to win the Arizona, Texas, and Virginia seats, while the eventual Republican nominee will have the advantage toward holding the TN-7 vacancy. The eventual GOP nominee in the South Carolina Governor’s race will also become a heavy favorite once the June 9 primary and June 23 runoff election, if necessary, are completed.

South Carolina Sen. Graham’s
Budding Primary Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025

Senate

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Several Republican Senators are already seeing potential GOP primary opponents beginning to make moves to launch their 2026 challenge campaigns.

One such potential primary is developing in South Carolina. Sen. Lindsey Graham said this week that he will seek re-election for a fifth term next year. Concurrently, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) continues to make public statements confirming that he is testing the political waters for a primary challenge against Sen. Graham.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who previously ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Graham in 2014, is also says she is considering making another bid but has recently been less vociferous about making such a move.

Rep. Norman was initially elected to his 5th Congressional District position in a 2017 special election to replace then-Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R) who resigned to join the first Trump Administration. Prior to serving in federal office, Norman was elected to six non-consecutive terms in the South Carolina House of Representatives. He unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2006.

Congressman Norman has averaged 61.1 percent of the vote in his four regular election campaigns after winning the initial special election with just 51 percent. The result was considered an underperformance in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization now rates as R+15, and The Down Ballot data organization ranks as the 90th safest seat in the House Republican Conference.

For his part, Sen. Graham has averaged 62 percent of the vote in his last two Republican primaries (2020 and 2014). In the 2020 general election, despite having an opponent, now current but outgoing Democratic National Committee chairman Jaime Harrison, raise over $132 million against him, or $20 million more than Graham commanded, the Senator won the election by just over ten percentage points in what became a national campaign. Therefore, denying the Senator renomination or re-election in 2026 will be no easy feat.

While Rep. Norman confirmed his interest in a Senate challenge this week he did not commit to running. The Congressman previously stated he also had a potential interest in entering the open race for Governor but is no longer making any comments about this move. While Sen. Graham has over $15.6 million cash-on-hand in his year-end campaign finance report, Rep. Norman ended the 2024 campaign cycle with $601,000 in the bank, approximately $15 million behind the Senator.

Norman has been a strong supporter of President-Elect Donald Trump throughout the latter’s political career and would likely be work for an endorsement if he were to run for the Senate. Sen. Graham, while originally an opponent of Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, has since become one of his stronger supporters in the Senate.

Therefore, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the President would potentially support Graham, or simply stay out of the race. Defeating a Republican incumbent in a primary without a Trump endorsement has proven a very difficult task for GOP intraparty challengers around the country.

Sen. Graham is certainly not the only Republican Senator who may face a primary. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) will engage in a campaign opposite State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming, while simultaneously Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) may see his state’s Attorney General, Ken Paxton, launch his own campaign.

Talk continues that Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Joni Ernst (R-IA) may also be challenged for renomination, but nothing concrete has yet developed in their states. In Florida, Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) says he will oppose whomever Gov. Ron DeSantis appoints to replace Sen. Marco Rubio upon the latter’s confirmation as Secretary of State.

Though we may see a legitimate Republican primary battle evolve in South Carolina next year, Sen. Graham must be rated as the favorite to prevail against any and all GOP opponents. In a strongly conservative state such as South Carolina, the Republican primary is likely the main political battlefield. Whoever earns the GOP nomination will be the prohibitive favorite to hold the seat in November 2026.

Senator Schiff? Durbin Retirement Announcement? Rep. Mace Considers Political Future; Republican Challenger to Gov. Shapiro?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024

Senate

Newly appointed California Sen. Adam Schiff (D)

California: Schiff Takes Office — There is a bit of confusion surrounding California Rep. Adam Schiff being sworn into the Senate before the next Congress convenes. In November, Schiff defeated retired baseball player Steve Garvey (R), 59-41 percent, for the regular term. Yet, Senator-Elect Schiff already has been sworn into office as a Senator. This is because appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) resigned the seat after the election as she promised. Butler was appointed to the Senate to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) who passed away in September of 2023.

Schiff, on Nov. 5, also won the special election to fill the balance of the unexpired term. Because of California’s long election certification period, neither the regular term nor the special election results are yet certified; therefore, Gov. Newsom has appointed now-Senator Schiff during the interim.

Illinois: Sen. Durbin to Make Announcement in January — Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), during a CNN interview, indicated he will make an announcement about whether he will seek a sixth term, “after the first of the year.”

Sen. Durbin, now 80 years old, was first elected to the Senate in 1996 after serving seven terms in the US House of Representatives. Should he decide to retire, we can expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form, with the winner of the March 2026 primary becoming a definitive favorite to win the succeeding general election.

South Carolina: Rep. Mace Considering Primary Challenge — Earlier it was reported that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who was just re-elected to a third term, confirmed she is considering entering the open 2026 Governor’s race. She is reportedly also looking at potentially launching another challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham in the ’26 Republican Senatorial primary.

In 2014, Mace, then the first woman to graduate from The Citadel, was one of six Republicans who challenged Sen. Graham, who was then completing his second term. She finished fifth in the field of seven, securing only 6.2 percent of the statewide vote. Sen. Graham won that primary with 56 percent of the vote. While it is clear Mace would attract more support in a 2026 challenge, she would again face an uphill challenge to Sen. Graham who is arguably much stronger with the Republican base than he was in 2014.

Six years later, the Senator faced a major challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Harrison raised an incredible $132 million in his 2020 race against Graham, but the Senator still prevailed with a comfortable 10 percentage point win. At this early stage of the 2026 election cycle, Sen. Graham must again be considered a strong favorite for re-election regardless of what Republican or Democratic opponent might emerge.

Governor

Pennsylvania: Rep. Meuser Contemplating Gov Race — Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas/Lebanon), who was just re-elected to a fourth term, confirmed earlier this week that he is considering launching a general election challenge to Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). With Gov. Shapiro enjoying positive job approval ratings and rumored as a potential presidential candidate in 2028, the incumbent will be difficult to dislodge.

Therefore, for Republicans, this race looks like a long shot, so it will be interesting to see if Meuser would risk his safe House seat for a difficult statewide run. To date, no one has yet come forward to declare a gubernatorial candidacy.

June 11 Primary Preview: Part II

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 11, 2024

Primaries

As covered in yesterday’s column, four states and a special election are on the ballot today. We looked at the situations in Maine, Nevada, and North Dakota in the previous update.

Today, we concentrate on the two key South Carolina Republican US House primaries, as voters simultaneously will fill another US House vacancy in eastern Ohio.

Two-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

South Carolina — With no statewide race on the primary ballot, voters in the Charleston and Greenville-Spartanburg areas become tonight’s major focal points.

In the Charleston-anchored 1st Congressional District, a domain that was challenged as a racial gerrymander, but one that the US Supreme Court verified as a legitimate draw, we see two-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) fighting to win renomination.

Her main opponent is former Gov. Nikki Haley Administration official and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Catherine Templeton who is certainly a credible challenger. While Rep. Mace has former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, she was also one of the eight Republicans to vote to oust then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, meaning outside money is coming into the district to oppose her. Controversy also arose around the congresswoman when her entire DC staff resigned in protest of her management style.

While polling finds Mace well ahead of Templeton, South Carolina is a runoff state, so candidates must reach the 50 percent threshold to win a nomination. A third candidate, non-profit organization executive Bill Young, could play a role in forcing Rep. Mace into a runoff. If the two women run close, even a single-digit performance from Young could help create a secondary election.

South Carolina is also unique in that they employ only a two-week runoff schedule. Therefore, if a runoff occurs, the second election will be scheduled for June 25, leaving little time to run a major campaign.

So far this year, we have seen contested incumbents prevail in every situation. The same may occur for Rep. Mace tonight, but the question remains as to whether she can win outright.

Northwest on I-26 from Charleston at the other end of the state is the Greenville-Spartanburg-anchored 4th Congressional District. In 2022, Rep. William Timmons (R-Greenville) found himself attracting just over 52 percent against three opponents. His poor performance was largely due to adverse publicity coming from the exposure of an extramarital affair breaking shortly before that primary election. In 2022, Timmons did not have a Democratic opponent, so there was no further threat for him to overcome.

This year, Timmons arguably faces a much tougher primary opponent in state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Greenville). This is a one-on-one Republican primary race, so the nomination will be decided tonight.

Rep. Morgan is attacking Rep. Timmons from the political right, and he does have a base within the district. Timmons will likely prevail though the final result may be tighter than the congressman would hope.

Democrats did file a candidate this year. In the general election, tonight’s winner will face Spartanburg County Democratic chair Kathryn Harvey. In a 4th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+27, the seat will remain in the Republican column regardless of who claims the GOP nomination.

OH-6 — In the cycle’s 6th special election, tonight we see eastern Ohio state Sen. Michael Rulli (R-Salem) poised to replace resigned US Rep. Bill Johnson (R).

Sen. Rulli really won the election when he outdueled state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus 49-41 percent in the special Republican primary. The Democratic nominee, businessman Michael Kripchak, had raised only $22,000-plus through the May 22 pre-election campaign finance reporting period. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates OH-6 as R+31, meaning the election will be over early in the evening.

The Rulli victory will give the House Republicans 219 members as compared to the Democrats’ 213. There will be three remaining vacancies. One, the race to replace resigned Colorado Rep. Ken Buck (R), will be filled on June 25, concurrently with the state primary election.

The other two will be open until possibly a lame duck session. Rep. Donald Payne Jr.’s death leaves the 10th District of New Jersey vacant. He posthumously won the Democratic Party nomination for the regular term, and the local county committees will replace him as soon as the July 16 special primary concludes. It is clear the committee members will then nominate the individual who wins the special Democratic primary.

The remaining vacancy is the Wisconsin seat of resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R). Due to the date of his resignation, there will be no special election to replace him prior to the November 5th regular general election.

Split Tickets in AZ, NV? SCOTUS Rules in SC; Dead Heat in CA-41; Mace Leads in Two South Carolina Polls

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 24, 2024

Senate

Former President Donald Trump

Polling: Potential Split Tickets in AZ, NV — Two new surveys find Democratic Senate candidates pulling away from their presumed Republican opponents in two southwestern swing states while former President Donald Trump continues to lead within the same polling samples.

Phoenix-based Noble Predictive Insights (May 7-14; 1,003 registered Arizona voters; online) finds Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) maintaining a double-digit lead, 46-36 percent, over Republican former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. Yet, on the presidential ballot test, former President Trump holds a 43-36-8-2-1 percent advantage over President Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I), Jill Stein (Green), and Dr. Cornel West (I).

In Nevada, we see a similar pattern. Mainstreet Research, polling for Florida Atlantic University (May 19-21; 522 registered Nevada voters; interactive voice response system & online), finds Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leading Republican Sam Brown, 48-37 percent. When turning to the presidential contest, however, the results flip. According to this data, Trump would hold a 44-40-9 percent advantage over Biden and Kennedy. Both the most recent Arizona and Nevada polling results suggest that each electorate could engage in ticket splitting for the top two offices on their respective ballots.

House

SCOTUS: Overturns South Carolina Lower Court’s Redistricting Ruling — On a 6-3 vote, the United States Supreme Court overturned the lower court ruling that declared South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District (Rep. Nancy Mace — R-Charleston) as a racial gerrymander. Writing for the majority, Justice Samuel Alito stated that the lower court’s ruling saying race had been the predominate factor in drawing the 1st District was “clearly erroneous,” according to the Daily Kos Elections site analysts. Therefore, the current South Carolina map will stand.

The state had already proceeded under the current lines since the high court’s decision came after the candidate filing deadline. Therefore, the current campaigns will continue along their present path.

This decision could well affect the Louisiana case, which the high court stayed. The lower court had overturned the Louisiana legislature’s original map as a racial gerrymander. The appellate court then reversed the ruling, but the Supreme Court stayed that decision. It is possible the stay was ordered because the court was making an important ruling on the South Carolina case, and that decision could again change the Louisiana situation.

CA-41: Rep. Calvert in Dead Heat — Veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) is again in a highly competitive race with his 2022 opponent, former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D). The Rollins campaign just released the results of their latest internal poll from David Binder Research (May 1-6; 600 likely CA-41 general election voters; live interview & text). According to the ballot test, Rollins would hold a slight one-point lead, 45-44 percent, over Rep. Calvert. Both candidates see 31 percent of their support being recorded as definite, while 14 percent of Rollins’ voters say they could change their vote, as do 13 percent of Calvert voters.

While the polling is virtually even, the all-party jungle primary results gave Rep. Calvert a 53-38 percent advantage from 162,066 individuals who voted. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-41 as R+7.

SC-1: Rep. Mace Leads in Two Polls — While the US Supreme Court was ruling on the legality of the state’s 1st Congressional District, a new Republican primary poll was simultaneously released. Emerson College (May 19-21; 400 likely SC-1 Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) publicized their new data results that post incumbent Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) to a 47-22 percent advantage over her principal challenger, former Haley Administration official and previous gubernatorial candidate Catherine Templeton. A third candidate, non-profit executive Bill Young, attracted seven percent of the vote.

The results are similar to a recent Kaplan Strategies survey (May 6-7; 343 likely SC-1 Republican primary voters; online & text) that produced a Mace lead of 43-21-3 percent.
The South Carolina primary is June 11. If no one reaches majority support, and neither poll shows Rep. Mace winning outright, the top two finishers will advance to a June 25 runoff election.

Curtis Leads in New Utah Poll; California Dem Party Endorses Low; Michigan Candidate in Danger of Disqualification; Three Incumbents Being Outspent in NY, VA, SC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 20, 2024

Senate

Utah Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo)

Utah: Rep. Curtis Leading in New GOP Poll — Four Republican candidates are vying for the right to succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R) in Utah’s June 25 primary election, but one is pulling away from the field. The Conservative Values for Utah super PAC commissioned a Guidant Polling & Strategy survey for the Utah Senate race (April 30-May 3; 600 likely Utah Republican primary voters) and released the results late last week. The ballot test finds US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) developing a large 41-14-9-2 percent GOP primary advantage over Riverton Mayor John Staggs, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman Jason Walton, respectively.

Mayor Staggs was officially endorsed at the Utah Republican Party Convention and earned former President Donald Trump’s support. Through submitting 28,000 valid signatures, Rep. Curtis and Wilson and Walton all successfully petitioned onto the primary ballot. The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite in the open general election.

House

CA-16: State Dem Party Endorses Low — With the recount of the tied jungle primary finish between San Mateo County Supervisor Joe Simitian (D) and state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell), and awarding Low the second qualifying general election ballot position by five votes, the California Democratic Party has taken action. With Simitian not requesting a recount, even though many expected him to ask for a second canvass, the official California party issued an endorsement for Assemblyman Low.

The first-place finisher, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D), wrapped up his qualifying position on the March 5 primary election date. Neither Low nor Simitian requested an original recount because under California election procedure, tied candidates both advance into the general election. Instead, allies of Liccardo paid for the recount figuring the tally would move by a handful of votes, which proved true. Later, polling surfaced showing Liccardo doing better in a two-way race against either Low or Simitian, as opposed to a three-way all-Democratic battle. The November winner will replace retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton).

MI-13: Former State Senator in Danger of Being Disqualified — In 2022, then-state Sen. Adam Hollier (D-Detroit) lost a close crowded primary to then-state Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit), 28-24 percent, and vowed to try again in 2024. While Hollier announced for the seat and circulated petitions, the preliminary city clerk staff report indicates that his valid signature petitions will fall short of the minimum required number for ballot qualification. After the two-day public comment period expires, the city clerk will make the final decision of whether to award Hollier a ballot line.

Even without Hollier on the ballot, Rep. Thanedar will likely face a Democratic primary challenge from Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters and former Southfield City Clerk Shakira Hawkins. The Michigan primary is scheduled for Aug. 6.

House Incumbents: Three Being Outspent — Three US House incumbents are on the short end of spending battles in their respective primaries. Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), Nancy Mace (R-SC), and Bob Good (R-VA) all face tough challenges against credible opponents.

Reports are surfacing that, led by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s United Democracy Project, Westchester County Executive George Latimer is the beneficiary of a media spending advantage against Rep. Bowman of about $3 million to $171,000 according to the AdImpact media monitoring organization. The congressman had more than $1.4 million in his account through March 31 and can expect further outside money to help him close the voter contact gap in the final six weeks of the primary campaign.

Largely due to a PAC that former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s allies run, AdImpact estimates spending against Rep. Mace is approximately $4.3 million as compared to $2.5 million backing the congresswoman. Mace’s opponent is former Nikki Haley Administration official Catherine Templeton.

While there are no reported figures for the Virginia race to date, it is clear that challenger John McGuire, a Virginia state senator who has former President Trump’s endorsement, is well ahead of Rep. Good in advertising and polling. An early May Battleground Connect poll found Sen. McGuire leading Rep. Good, 45-31 percent. The congressman, like Rep. Mace, voted to oust former Speaker McCarthy.