Tag Archives: Pete Buttigieg

The DNC’s Looming Decisions

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 16, 2025

DNC

Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been appearing in rallies across the country with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

Though the 2028 presidential election is years away, the Democratic National Committee leadership has looming structural decisions to make well in advance of the first nomination votes being cast.

Prospective national candidates are already beginning to make positioning moves. For example, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is attempting to move closer to the political center with his comments this week regarding the homeless and his new podcast that features guests and topics not always aligned with the ideological left.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), conducting a series of public events with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), is moving even further left in an attempt to capture the Sanders’ coalition.

Former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is bypassing a Michigan US Senate campaign to prepare for another presidential run and already is visiting Iowa, while Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) is conducting a nationwide anti-Trump tour.

All of these individual strategic moves are illustrative regarding how each person attempts to best position him or herself toward grabbing an early advantage in the forthcoming intra-party brawl for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. Before the campaigns even get underway, however, the national party leaders face controversial rule-making decisions well in advance of any contender stepping forward to campaign in the early states.

The first such task is to determine just where are the early states. You will remember that the Democrats changed the political calendar before the 2024 election when they dropped Iowa and New Hampshire from the top two slots and chose to begin in South Carolina.

The 2024 schedule does not mean the party leaders have to adhere to the same progression in 2028, and as such the individual candidates will want their say in deciding not only the geographic order, but potentially other structural rules that the DNC Rules Committee could recommend be changed.

Since the early states have proven crucial in developing momentum for eventual party nominees, all 57 voting Democratic Party entities (states, territories, and the group of those Democrats living abroad) are likely to soon begin jockeying for position. Without a Democratic President in the White House, it falls upon the DNC to take the lead in setting the ground rules for the 2028 party nomination structure.

With big state Governors such as Newsom, Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, and Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro likely to become presidential candidates, we can see a coalition forming to recommend that the mid-Atlantic states secure early positioning.

The southern contingent, led by Gov. Andy Beshear (KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (NC), will want their region placed early on the calendar, while some of the lesser-known contenders should advocate for smaller states going first since they are more responsive to grassroots campaign tactics that unfamiliar contenders need to give them a fighting chance.

Geographic order changes will not be the only rule discussed. We can expect the DNC to adopt a formalized procedure in the event of replacing a presidential candidate with pledged delegates who exits prior to the national convention. When President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, there was no set procedure to replace him. Thus, the committee members had to adopt a plan on the fly that included virtual voting and other procedures, which caused some controversy among certain DNC members.

Since the Rules Committee must recommend an early state schedule to the full DNC voting membership and may look at adopting an official presidential candidate replacement procedure, they could also consider changing the delegate apportionment formula.

With so many candidates likely to run, a proposal from the big state DNC members to increase their delegate share could certainly come before the rules panel. Also, some of the candidates will likely advocate restoring the Super Delegates’ (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) ability to vote on the first ballot.

The 2028 presidential campaign will unofficially begin after the 2026 midterm elections, but the party leadership’s’ first significant hurdles will come in the relative near future.

Buttigieg Says No to Senate Run

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Senate

Pete Buttigieg / Photo by Matt Johnson, Flickr

Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) opting not to seek a third term has left the 2026 Michigan Senate race in a highly competitive open political mode. As we learned at the end of last week, however, one person who will not participate is former US Transportation Secretary and ex-presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg (D).

The former national cabinet official and ex-South Bend, Indiana Mayor publicly announced that he will not enter the Wolverine State Senate race despite leading in published polls. The one early released Democratic primary poll (Blueprint Polling; Jan. 30-Feb. 2; 536 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters; SMS text) found Buttigieg ahead of Attorney General Dana Nessel 40-16 percent but doing poorly within the important Black community in Detroit.

Rather, “Mayor Pete,” as he is often called, is apparently looking to follow the presidential winds, and his Michigan decision strongly suggests that he will be organizing another presidential campaign for the open 2028 national campaign when President Donald Trump will be ineligible to seek re-election.

Without Buttigieg in the Senate race, AG Nessel, who is ineligible to seek a third term for her current position, is a presumed top-tier potential candidate likely to be among those attempting to fill the Senate void. Congresswoman Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) is also reportedly making moves to organize a Senate campaign as is state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak). Nessel’s weak poll showing against Buttigieg suggests that she is anything but a lock for her party’s nomination.

Several other names are being floated as potential Michigan Senate candidates including Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers who came within 19,006 votes of winning the state’s other Senate race last November. He lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) by three-tenths of one percentage point from over 5.77 million cast ballots.

Rogers, who is expected to run again, may have an impending GOP primary fight against a woman who lost the most recent Governor’s race by 10 percentage points, former steel company executive, national political commentator, and 2022 Michigan Republican gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon.

While Rogers moves to the right in hiring Trump co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita as one of his key consultants, a new Fabrizio Lee & Associates poll (Feb. 17-19; 600 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; live interview & text) suggests the former Congressman may not be the prohibitive favorite for the next GOP Senate nomination despite his impressive performance in the 2024 election.

The Fabrizio ballot test finds him trailing Dixon 40-36 percent in a hypothetical 2026 Republican primary poll. Among those saying their vote would be definite, the two are virtually tied with 22 percent saying they would definitely support Dixon and 21 percent indicating the same about Rogers.

Dixon, however, has been more closely tied to the open Governor’s race since incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. If she returns to again enter the state chief executive’s office campaign Dixon will likely face an equally difficult Republican nomination run against Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills).

In 2018, James, as a first-time candidate, held veteran Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) to just over 52 percent of the vote. Two years later, he came within less than two percentage points of unseating Sen. Peters. Now, Rep. James, who won his congressional seat in 2022 and was re-elected in November, looks to be preparing a run for the 2026 open Governor’s contest.

It is already clear that we will see many more twists and turns in the Michigan statewide races before reaching the August 2026 primary election. It is already clear, however, even in this early going, that Michigan, featuring both an open Senate and open Governor’s race for the first time in the modern political era, will be one of the top political states to follow in the coming months.

Pete Buttigieg Leads in Michigan Democratic Primary Senate Poll

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2025

Senate

Former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg / Photo by Matt Johnson

A new Michigan Democratic primary poll suggests that former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is the man to beat for the party nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D).

The Blueprint Polling firm tested a likely Michigan Democratic voting segment (Jan. 30-Feb. 2; 536 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters; SMS text) and sees Buttigieg topping Attorney General Dana Nessel 40-16 percent in a hypothetical 2026 primary poll. Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak Township) all trail “in low single digits,” according to the Blueprint analysis.

Sen. McMorrow is the only individual who has formally announced for the Senate from either party, but the aforementioned have all confirmed they are considering entering the race. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilcrest (D) was included in this poll but last week announced that he will not run for the Senate. He is projected as virtually certain to enter the open Governor’s contest.

Buttigieg has the highest name identification and favorability index of the tested potential contenders within this Democratic sampling universe. He posts 88 percent name recognition with a 77:12 favorable to unfavorable split. Attorney General Nessel is close behind with an 82 percent name recognition score and a similar 72:10 positive index. A total of 56 percent questioned could identify Lt. Gov. Gilcrest, and 45 percent responded with a favorable impression. The remaining potential candidates all had low statewide name ID.

Buttigieg does particularly well with white Democrats (47-16 percent over Nessel), the highly educated (47-15 percent versus Nessel), liberals (47-18 percent against Nessel), and non-union workers (44-14 percent opposite Nessel). The former Transportation Secretary fared poorly with blacks, however, trailing both Nessel and Gilcrest (22-19-16 percent).

Sen. McMorrow and the two Representatives, should either or both enter the statewide race, would have a long way to go in becoming competitive for the nomination. Tested against AG Nessel, Rep. Stevens would even lose her own 11th Congressional District by 15 percentage points, while Rep. Scholten would lead Nessel 28-21 percent in her 3rd CD but trails badly elsewhere. Sen. McMorrow lags seven points behind AG Nessel among those who know and have an opinion of both women.

According to the Blueprint analysis scenarios, Buttigieg would be in an enviable position for the Democratic Party nomination should he become a Senate candidate. The pollsters conclude, “Pete Buttigieg is the overwhelming front-runner. He struggles with Black voters and nearly a third of the electorate remains undecided, but his strength with educated voters and white liberals makes him the odds-on favorite to win the nomination.”

The Blueprint pollsters did not test any of the Democratic candidates against prospective Republican candidates such as former Congressman Mike Rogers, who came within 19,006 votes of winning the state’s other Senate seat in the 2024 election.

With Buttigieg faring poorly with black voters and considering that now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) is more popular than the former Transportation Secretary with the general electorate, it appears Rogers would be in strong position should he mount another attempt in the coming midterm election.

Previously, Republicans as a whole tended to fare better in midterm elections when compared to their presidential year performance, but considering the changing dynamics within the Michigan and national electorates such may no longer be the case. It does appear that the country is entering a realignment phase, but it will take at least two more elections to see if such change becomes a trend or is merely an anomaly found only in 2024.

Irrespective of who becomes the eventual Michigan US Senate nominees, the open Wolverine State race will be one of the top targets for both national parties.

Nevada’s Harry Reid Re-Emerges

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 5, 2021 — Former Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is no longer in elective office, but it appears he’s still active in politics. Now, Reid has a new cause: making Nevada the first-in-the-nation presidential nomination contest.

Former Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

Reports suggest that the former party leader is lobbying Democratic officials to change the order of nomination voting. As we know, Iowa is the first caucus state to vote, followed by the New Hampshire primary. The Nevada caucus then follows, and then onto the South Carolina primary before Super Tuesday voting commences.

Reid, and others, are arguing that neither Iowa nor New Hampshire are representative of the core Democratic Party, and therefore should not receive the undue attention from being scheduled as the first caucus and primary despite tradition yielding such.

He points out that in 2020 the Iowa caucus system became colluded and poorly administered thus leading to a situation that even today it is unclear as to who actually won the caucus vote. While Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) received the most votes, it was former South Bend mayor and now US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who came away with the most delegates.

In New Hampshire, Reid contends that the eventual nominee, and of course general election winner, Joe Biden, placed fifth in the Granite State Democratic primary before his candidacy was rescued with a big primary win in South Carolina. He fails to mention, however, that Biden also lost Nevada, coming in a poor second to Sen. Sanders (40-19 percent) and just ahead of Buttigieg’s 17 percent.

Since 1952, there have been 13 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primaries in races that did not involve a party incumbent. In only five of those campaigns did the Granite State voters back the eventual party nominee. The last time the state chose a nominee who went onto win an open or challenge race for the Presidency occurred in 1976. In that year, Jimmy Carter won the New Hampshire primary, and then proceeded to unseat then-President Gerald Ford in a close general election.

In reality, however, South Carolina may actually have the best argument about moving into the first primary position. The South Carolina presidential primary system began in 1988. Since then, the state has hosted seven such Democratic elections where no president of their party was seeking re-election. In its history, the eventual party nominee has won five of the seven Palmetto State presidential primaries.

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Super Tuesday Has Arrived

Super Tuesday 2020 States & Territories

By Jim Ellis

March 3, 2020 — The election landscape has changed since Saturday with former mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), and billionaire Tom Steyer all exiting the race. Sen. Klobuchar endorsed former vice president Joe Biden as did Buttigieg in an announcement last night.

How do these developments and an obvious Joe Biden resurgence affect today’s vote? Maybe not as much as meets the eye. With the early voting processes well underway, and even completed in some states, the late-breaking political news and happenings will influence far fewer voters.

In fact, the three largest states with primaries today, California (415 first-ballot delegates), Texas (228), and North Carolina (110), all have extensive early voting options and large percentages of their voters have already cast their ballots meaning Biden’s sudden upswing in momentum after his South Carolina victory on Saturday night won’t sway them.

In California, more than 2 million people have already voted, which may translate into as much as one-third of the total Democratic presidential primary turnout. In 2016, more than 5.1 million people voted in the Hillary Clinton-Bernie Sanders race in June of that year. Returning to today, more than one million have already voted in Texas, and 800,000-plus have cast their ballots in North Carolina.

Thirty-eight states have some form of early voting, even if it is merely an in-person absentee system like those found in Minnesota and Virginia. For Super Tuesday, of the 14 states with primary elections today, only Alabama and Colorado have no early voting. The latter state fully conducts all-mail balloting but has no pre-election process in which to submit votes.

Looking at the current political map, though the establishment is making moves to coalesce behind Biden, the latest polling suggests that Sen. Sanders leads in nine primaries today and it’s possible, even with the candidate departures, that as many as three contenders in almost all of the states could still qualify for delegate apportionment.

Today will also mark the first time that former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg’s name will be on the ballot and how he fares will be telling. Depending upon how many votes he takes could prevent one of the leading candidates from securing majority support, meaning the race evolving into a contested national convention is still a possibility.

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Biden Wins South Carolina
Stage Set for Super Tuesday

By Jim Ellis

March 2, 2020 — Former vice president Joe Biden accomplished his goal of reviving his downward trending presidential campaign on Saturday. He won the South Carolina primary with 48.4 percent of the vote, topping Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) 19.9 percent. Billionaire Tom Steyer, who spent millions attempting to make a stand in South Carolina and access the delegate board finished third with 11.3 percent. Failing to win bound delegates, Steyer officially exited the race after the results became known.

Former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, a top-tier candidate, citing no viable path to the nomination, also dropped his campaign bid. This move is a bit of a surprise in that he was in position to win some delegates tomorrow in the Super Tuesday primaries; though leading in no states, he might have been able to affect the outcome of a contested convention should such an eventuality actually occur.

On the delegate count, Biden notched 38 bound first-ballot delegate votes, and Sen. Sanders’ added 16 to his national total. Going into Super Tuesday, Sen. Sanders still has a national lead, but it has dropped to 60-54 over Biden. Buttigieg, who scored 8.3 percent in South Carolina and finished fourth, remains at 26 bound delegate votes. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) continues to hold eight votes and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar has seven. Sen. Warren finished fifth in the Palmetto State primary, with 7.1 percent, and Sen. Klobuchar recorded only 3.1 percent support.

Turnout increased substantially in comparison to the 2016 Democratic primary. More than 528,000 individuals look to have voted in Saturday’s primary, up from 370,904 in 2016. It is noteworthy to remember, however, that there was no Republican primary this year, meaning some self-identified Republican voters may have participated in the open voting system. The turnout was slightly below that of 2008, when 532,151 individuals cast ballots in that year’s Democratic primary even though Republicans and new voters, which should be a substantial since the state has rapidly grown during the past twelve years, are present in the current vote.

Now the stage is set for Super Tuesday, with Sanders and Biden in a virtual tie, and former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg on a primary ballot for the first time. With Sanders and Biden now so close, it appears unlikely that the Super Tuesday result won’t give either one a commanding advantage.

South Carolina, Tomorrow

By Jim Ellis

Former vice president, Joe Biden

Feb. 28, 2020 — Former vice president Joe Biden appears on the cusp of winning tomorrow’s South Carolina Democratic primary. His polling has greatly improved, and momentum looks to be on his side.

For more than a year, Biden has enjoyed strong leads in South Carolina but his poor performance in Iowa and New Hampshire, with a slight rebound in Nevada, had caused his Palmetto State margins to tighten. One poll, from Change Research on Feb. 12-14, forecast Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) lapsing into a tie.

Four closing polls were released yesterday, giving Biden leads of between 4 and 28 points, but it is the former poll that seems to be the anomaly. Change Research (Feb. 23-27; 543 likely South Carolina Democratic primary voters) projects Biden leading Sen. Sanders and billionaire Tom Steyer, 28-24-16 percent, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) lagging behind with a 12 percent preference factor. Under this poll, the top three finishers would qualify for delegate apportionment.

On the other hand, Emerson College (Feb. 26-27; 425 likely South Carolina Democratic primary voters) and Monmouth University (Feb. 23-25; 454 likely South Carolina Democratic primary voters) come much closer to Starboard Communications’ (Feb. 26; 1,102 likely South Carolina Democratic primary voters; online) 28-point spread line.

Starboard projects Biden leading 40-12-11 percent over Steyer and Sanders. Emerson finds him holding a 17-point lead, while Monmouth posts the former VP to a 20-point advantage. Both Emerson and Starboard find Biden touching the 40 percent mark. Biden’s large leads fail to prevent the Change Research and Monmouth polls from projecting that three of the candidates would earn a share of South Carolina’s 54 first-ballot delegate allotment, however.

To estimate a reasonable delegate count, the Monmouth poll finds a 36-16-15 percent spread for Biden, Sanders, and Steyer. If this poll proved most accurate, the delegate split would approximately be 29-13-12, consecutively, assuming the seven congressional district totals turned in similar ratios.

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