Tag Archives: Florida

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays (Plus, Gaetz’s Rumored Return)


Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays, everyone. Ellis Insight will be taking a break over the holidays. Today will be our last post this year. We’ll return Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025 with continuing updates.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 24, 2024

House

Resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fort Walton Beach)

In the fervor of the continuing resolution battle, a rumored side story may soon be picking up steam. Some are speculating that resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz may now take his seat when the new Congress commences on Jan. 3 at least for a short period.

Considering that more chatter surrounds Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) as becoming politically weaker through the CR fight seemingly makes a Gaetz return potentially more probable.

The resigned Congressman’s story never seems to end. To review, when Gaetz left the House in mid-November, he could do so only for the current term. He said in his resignation letter, however, that it is his “intent” to resign for the coming term.

In the Nov. 5 election, Gaetz was re-elected with 66 percent of the vote, so should he change his mind and decide to take the oath of office it would be difficult to craft an argument to deny him since his election percentage was overwhelming.

The speculation regarding him taking the oath of office on Jan. 3 appears to be twofold. First, he may now want to participate in the Speaker’s vote if he believes Johnson is beatable. His second reason could possibly be to release congressional “MeToo” names in retaliation for the House Ethics Committee members reversing course and publicizing their findings in his case.

Should Gaetz actually return, it is believed that he would only serve for a matter of days before resigning again to assume his recently agreed upon news anchor duties with the OAN Network. Yet, can any current political move be considered “a sure thing?”

How this situation concludes will likely depend upon the way in which the continuing resolution battle is resolved. If the government is shut down and remains so through the Jan. 3 congressional commencement, the odds may grow that Gaetz would take his seat to participate in what would be a historic, yet wholly chaotic, Speaker election on the House floor.

Remembering Kevin McCarthy’s Speaker election of two years ago, which consumed 15 rounds of roll calls, such a scenario as described above would likely make the coming Speaker vote even more noteworthy.

At this point, the possibility of Gaetz taking office for a short number of days is unlikely to affect the special election calendar that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) scheduled to fill his vacant 1st District seat for the new Congress. The special Republican primary is scheduled for Jan. 28 with the associated special general election on April 1.

Should Gaetz rescind his resignation intent and indicate he will serve the balance of the new term, he would likely have the right to do so, and the special election would be canceled.

Currently, nine Republicans, one Democrat, one Independent, and several qualified write-in candidates are competing for the seat in the special election. In what has continually proven to be Florida’s safest Republican seat (the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38) the Gaetz succession battle will likely be determined in the late January special Republican primary.

Though nine candidates are on the ballot, it is apparent the race is narrowing to two contenders: Florida CFO Jimmy Petronis and state Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). Most of the Republican establishment, including President-Elect Donald Trump and Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), have endorsed Petronis. Several strong contenders dropped out of the race once Petronis received those endorsements, and likewise pledged their support to the current statewide official.

Once again, we see another unique political situation, and this one, too, merits watching all the way through conclusion.

Texas Senate Seat Questions; Florida House Special Elections Set; Arkansas Redistricting Commission Filed

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 9, 2024

Senate

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French

Texas: Potential Challenger Issues Statement — There have been political rumors in Texas for some time that Attorney General Ken Paxton is planning to challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the 2026 Republican primary, and now another individual is coming forward to confirm he is considering entering the next US Senate campaign.

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French, a MAGA activist, released a statement indicating he is considering becoming a Senate candidate. While he was running for Majority Leader, Sen. Cornyn stated he would run for a fifth term. It remains to be seen, however, if he will follow through with that statement now that he is not in the leadership.

House

FL-1: Special Election Field Set — Candidate filing has closed for the two Florida special congressional elections with primaries scheduled for Jan. 28. President-Elect Donald Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R) have endorsed Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Petronis. Upon seeing the move from the national leaders, two potentially strong contenders, state Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and wealthy businessman Keith Gross, exited the race and endorsed Petronis. Even so, 10 others remain.

Though the field remains large, the top combatants are Petronis and state Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The size of the GOP field suggests that we will see a plurality nominee advance into the April 1 special general election. One Democrat, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, and an Independent candidate also filed.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which makes the northwestern panhandle seat Florida’s safest Republican domain. Therefore, the winner of the Jan. 28 GOP primary will win the seat outright on April 1.

FL-6: Sen. Randy Fine (R) in Driver’s Seat for Special Election — While 11 Republican candidates filed in the 1st District special election, we see only one other Republican do so in the Atlantic coastal 6th District after President-Elect Trump and Sen. Scott publicly endorsed state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne). The individual also is a MAGA activist — Aaron Baker. Sen. Fine appears to be a lock for the GOP nomination.

Three Democrats, a Libertarian Party nominee, and an Independent have filed. It appears Sen. Fine has won this seat once candidate filing closed. The Independent candidate is Randall Terry, a well-known pro-life activist who was the 2024 American Constitution Party presidential nominee and lives in Tennessee.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+28, so neither vacant Florida seat appears vulnerable to a Democratic conversion.

Redistricting

Arkansas: Redistricting Commission Filed — According to the Redistricting Network organization, state Sen. Bryan King (R-Green Forrest) has filed a bill to create a redistricting commission to draw future district boundaries at all levels of government. This measure would create a nine member commission where the governor, state attorney general, and the secretary of state would appoint those serving.

The move is a strange one considering that Republicans have trifecta control of the governor’s mansion, the state Senate and state House of Representatives. From the current map, the Republicans hold a 4-0 advantage in the congressional delegation, a 29-6 division in the state Senate, and 82-18 in the state House. The chances for passage in this legislative session appear slim at the outset.

Petronis In Lead to Replace Resigned Rep. Gaetz; FL-6 State Senator in Lead; New York Rep. Torres Considers Challenging NY Gov. Hochul

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 2, 2024

House

Florida state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R)

FL-1: Petronis Coalescing Support — State CFO Jimmy Petronis (R), though not a resident of Congressional District 1, is quickly becoming the man to beat in the Jan. 28 Republican special primary election to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R). Already with President-Elect Donald Trump’s endorsement, Sen. Rick Scott (R) now joins the Petronis backers. State Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola), businessman Keith Gross, and former state Rep. Frank White have all dropped out of the race and endorsed Petronis.

While 13 other Republicans are still on the ballot, Petronis is fast becoming the clear favorite. The special general election is scheduled for April 1. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as the safest seat in the state at R+38.

FL-6: State Senator is Leading Congressional Candidate — President-Elect Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) have already chosen their preferred candidate to replace outgoing Florida Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Waltz has been chosen as Trump’s National Security Advisor and announced that he will resign his seat on Jan. 20, the day the president-elect is sworn into office for a non-consecutive second term.

With those endorsements, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) is the clear early favorite, though seven other Republicans, including two former local elected officials and Rep. Waltz’s district director, are also announced candidates.

Because of the appointment notice, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was able to combine the state’s two special congressional elections in one cycle (primary Jan. 28; special general, April 1).

Governor

New York: Rep. Torres Considering Gov Race — Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) is confirming reports that he is considering challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in the 2026 Democratic gubernatorial primary. Torres, a staunch defender of Israel, also says he would consider entering the crowded 2025 New York City mayor’s race but the governor’s challenge, he reiterates, is “more appealing.”

Gov. Hochul, who ascended to the governor’s office from her elected post as lieutenant governor when then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned, defeated New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) 67-19-13 percent in the 2022 Democratic primary. She won the general election with an underwhelming 53-47 percent margin over then-Rep. Lee Zeldin (R).

Of all 50 states, President-Elect Trump’s performance improved over his 2020 showing in New York by the most in the country, a net 11.4 percentage points. Therefore, the state could potentially become more competitive in future elections.

Florida:
A Political Beehive of Activity

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2024

Florida’s Political Landscape

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fort Walton Beach)

With Florida’s two impending congressional special elections and a US senator to choose, the Sunshine State will dominate electoral politics in the coming weeks.

To begin, the situation surrounding ex-US Rep. Matt Gaetz’s vacant congressional district has been resolved, as has apparently the former congressman’s political future. Over the weekend, Gaetz, President-Elect Donald Trump’s nominee for US Attorney General who withdrew from consideration, because the Senate would obviously not confirm him; instead he declared that he will enter the open 2026 campaign for Florida governor. Incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. As part of the announcement, Gaetz reiterated that he will not take the oath of office for a new congressional term on Jan. 3.

Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) is President-Elect Trump’s choice for National Security Advisor. Since this position does not require Senate confirmation, Waltz can leave Congress and his 6th District and move to the White House immediately after Trump takes the oath of office Jan. 20 for his second non-consecutive term.

Once Sen. Marco Rubio (R) is confirmed as the nation’s new Secretary of State, Gov. DeSantis will then choose an individual to replace the departed incumbent. Whoever the governor selects must be a strong fundraiser. Not only will the new senator run in 2026 to fill the unexpired portion of the current term, he or she will have to run again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term.

After withdrawing as Trump’s AG nominee, there was speculation that Gaetz would instead return to the House, since his resignation was from the current Congress and not the future one. In the 2024 election, Gaetz was re-elected to a fifth term with 66 percent of the vote. He has now closed the door for such an option.

Gov. DeSantis has already set the special election to fill the vacant 1st District seat. The partisan primaries will be held Jan. 28 with the special general on April 1. Under Florida law, this was the quickest time frame in which to fill the vacancy.

Therefore, the Republican majority will be a seat down for the first quarter of 2025, and possibly as many as three depending upon when Waltz and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), the President-Elect’s nominee as US Ambassador to the United Nations, resign their seats.

Candidates wasted no time in coming forward for the open Gaetz 1st District seat. Previously announced were state representatives Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). Virtually overnight, another dozen Republicans, three Democrats, and two Independents quickly declared their candidacies.

Among them are retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock who challenged Rep. Gaetz in the ’24 Republican primary but attracted only 27 percent support, and businessman Keith Gross who opposed Sen. Rick Scott in this year’s GOP primary but recorded only nine percent of the statewide Republican primary vote.

Because there is a date certain as to when the 6th District seat will be vacant, Gov. DeSantis is able to use the same schedule that he announced late last week to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz in the state’s 1st District. Like in District 1, the special primary will be held on January 28th with the special general tagged for April 1st. Candidate filing will close on December 6th. Before becoming Governor, the District 6 constituency three times elected Mr. DeSantis as their Representative.

The candidate qualifying period ends on Dec. 6. Gov. DeSantis is clearly looking toward his Florida cabinet members as potential Senate replacement choices. A great many political parts are being set in motion.

The timing of the Waltz resignation might be intriguing considering the razor-thin House Republican majority. If both California Reps. John Duarte (R-Modesto) and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) lose their seats in the final two uncalled House races from extended political overtime, the party division in the House will rest at 219R – 215D along with the vacant FL-1 seat. Once Waltz and Stefanik depart, it would temporarily reduce to 217R – 215D.

Therefore, depending upon the legislative strategy the new White House and Republican leadership want to employ early in the session, we may see a delay in the Waltz resignation if his vote is needed to pass a key Trump agenda element. The Stefanik resignation will be later and largely based upon her Senate confirmation schedule.

Whatever happens, Florida has become a key political activity epicenter.

Sen. Casey Concedes; Independent Osborn May Return in Nebraska; Gaetz, Waltz Replacement Contenders Making Moves

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 22, 2024

Senate

Pennsylvania Republican David McCormick

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Concedes, McCormick In — The Senate races are now complete.

After the Pennsylvania State Supreme Court disallowed the admission of ballots that did not meet legal standards and earlier in the week Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) publicly backed the court’s decision, three-term Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) called a halt to the recount that had already begun. Late last week, he conceded the Senate race to Republican businessman David McCormick.

With the high court rulings and getting little support from his party leaders, continuing the recount became futile because it was unlikely that election officials and/or ballot counting machines around the state would have made approximately 17,000 individual counting mistakes. At the beginning of the recount process, the McCormick lead stood at 16,404 votes.

While Republicans are celebrating a victory that now officially takes them to 53 seats in the Senate, their margin could easily have been much higher. While recent political trends — and particularly so in the last two national elections — have found the Senate races following that of the presidential contest in virtually every state, the 2024 vote proved slightly different.

In this election cycle, the Republicans officially gained four seats, converting the West Virginia open seat and defeating Democratic incumbents Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown from Ohio, and Casey. Yet, their take could have been much greater.

President-Elect Trump won four other battleground states, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin that also could have elected a Republican senator. The party’s candidates, however, were a cumulative 5.3 percentage points short in those four states.

There will be a great deal of research done once numbers become final and published as to why these states did not follow the same pattern as the others. A total of 33 states hosted the 34 Senate elections (Nebraska had two Senate seats on the ballot because of a special election) and only the aforementioned quartet failed to follow the partisan pattern.

Thus, in the 31 states that President-Elect Donald Trump carried, 18 hosted Senate races and the Republican candidate won 14. Vice President Harris carried 19 states, and 15 held Senate races. The Democratic Senate candidate won in all 15 of those campaigns.

The 2024 pattern was not discovered on election night. Rather, pollsters had projected the situation for months. If anything, the Republican candidates closed the races better than expected.

Throughout virtually the entire election cycle, the Republican Senate candidates were running behind Trump in the battleground states. Where Trump would have a small lead in a particular domain, the GOP Senate candidate was typically polling eight to 10 points behind his standing.

The pattern was not confined to states that more often or not in recent elections vote Democratic such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Such was the case even in stronger Republican states and places where Trump had a major lead like Montana and Ohio. The GOP Senate candidate still won but fell considerably behind Trump’s position.

Part of the Republicans’ problem in many Senate situations was Democratic incumbency. While Tester, Brown, and now Casey went down to defeat, incumbency was certainly a positive dynamic for Sens. Jacky Rosen in Nevada and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin. Perhaps the biggest factor here was money. Both Rosen and Baldwin heavily outspent their Republican opponents that, especially in the Nevada race, allowed the incumbent to develop an early and mid-campaign lead that became very difficult to overcome even with a strong close.

The Arizona situation was different. In an open seat with Trump running six points ahead, pulling the Senate candidate across the finish line would have been expected. Here, the Republicans had a candidate with a severe negative image. While obtaining 49.6 percent in the 2022 governor’s race, former news anchor Kari Lake turned what should have been a catapulting finish into a net negative with her extended claims (even to this day) of voter fraud.

While she may have been taken seriously at the outset, carrying on through a losing a series of court decisions created a negative impression of her, thus badly hurting her in the subsequent election.

In Michigan, we saw a different situation. There, both parties fielded strong candidates in the person of Rep. Elissa Slotkin (R-Lansing) and former Congressman Mike Rogers. The end result was a virtual tie, and while Trump barely won Michigan, Rogers barely lost. Again, with Slotkin having a big financial advantage in the campaign, funding could have been the difference.

In the coming weeks, we will get a better picture of what happened in these potentially defining races that voted opposite for Senate as compared with their presidential selection. Were these races decided individually or are they potentially part of an emerging ticket-splitting trend? If so, 2024 may be laying the groundwork to return to a period where splitting one’s partisan vote choices is not such a foreign occurrence.

House

FL-1: Changing Situation — Now that ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) has withdrawn from consideration for Attorney General, there is some chance he could return to take the congressional seat in the next term because he was duly elected in November. Though he stated that he “intends” not to take the oath of office in the new Congress, his resignation only applies to the current Congress. Therefore, he could still return to the House.

Though speculation will be running rampant about what may happen in this congressional seat, several candidates are making moves to enter what they believe will be a special election. The three main candidates are state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R) and state Reps. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The battle to succeed Gaetz, if one comes to fruition, will be decided in the Republican primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which is the safest Republican seat in the Sunshine State.

FL-6: Rep. Waltz District Director to File for Special Election — Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) has been announced as President-Elect Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor. Since his position does not require Senate confirmation, Waltz can assume his duties as soon as Trump is sworn into office. At that point, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) can call a special election to replace Waltz who will resign his seat before assuming his new position.

Late last week, Rep. Waltz’s District Director, retired Army Brigadier Gen. Ernie Audino, announced that he will compete in the special election. We can expect a crowded GOP primary field for the safe Republican seat which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+28.

Census Preview: California Could Lose Four Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 18, 2024

Redistricting

California Congressional Districts (click on image
for larger view)

Though it is early in the current decade, The American Redistricting Project organization released their latest projections about the 2030 national reapportionment, and the most notable prediction is that California could lose four of their current 52 congressional seats.

Such a downturn would be extraordinary for a state that in the 1980 census gained seven new seats. To put their 1980 number in perspective, the 2020 census yielded seven total seats that switched states.

In 1930, Congress put a cap on the number of US House seats at 435, a figure that is still in existence today. Prior to that time, when states gained in population and were entitled to increased representation, seats were simply added to the chamber and no state lost districts. After 1930, when additional congressional seats were awarded, other states had to lose.

According to the ARP’s early 2030 projections, a total of 13 districts — if the present trends continue throughout the rest of the decade — would change states, almost double the number that switched domains in the current reapportionment.

The projected big gainers are Texas (+4) and Florida (+3). Florida is also thought to be on the bubble for an additional fourth seat. The other one-seat gainers would be Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Utah.

Idaho and Tennessee would be new entries as gainers since the others have added seats in the most recent preceding decades. Idaho was the fastest growing state in the country during the last decade, at a rate of 21 percent, but did not increase their representation. Under the apportionment formula, it is difficult for the small states to gain and lose seats, while the big states can more easily gain, but also lose, districts.

The states projected to lose seats, in addition to California, would be New York (3) and Illinois (2) with the following losing one seat apiece: Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

Oregon would be the most interesting state in this group. In the current 2020 census, the state gained a sixth congressional district. According to the ARP projections, they would lose their new seat in 2030 and return to a five-district contingent.

The addition of Minnesota and Rhode Island on the losing state list is not particularly surprising. Both were on the cusp of losing their eighth and second seats, respectively, in the 2020 census but the reapportionment formula barely spared the pair.

Since 1930, Pennsylvania has been the state that has lost the highest number of seats. Should they lose another in 2030, their delegation will drop to 16. In 1930, the Pennsylvania delegation had 36 members.

Two not on the losing list, reversing the trend from multiple decades, are Michigan and Ohio, though the 13th Michigan seat appears on the cusp of being eliminated.

At this point, states on the cusp of losing seats (but in this count would not) in addition to Michigan, are Louisiana and Wisconsin. States that just miss gaining are Florida, which would mean an addition of four instead of three, and South Carolina, possibly gaining one, while New York would potentially avoid losing a third seat.

The reapportionment would also affect the Electoral College, as it did in the current census. Because of reapportionment, the Republicans, in this case former President Donald Trump, gained a net three electoral votes because of congressional seats changing states. These three votes, in such a close election, could prove determinative since the victory projections for either presidential candidate are very tight.

If the 2030 projections are correct, the 13 seats switching states, under current voting trends, would net the Republicans approximately 11 electoral votes, which would be a massive boost to their prospects of electing future presidents.

The 2030 census is still well into the future, and these projections often change as actual trends begin to form. What the projections do tell us is the changing population patterns begun in the previous decade have accelerated in the current period.

Senate Trends

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024

Senate

As we get closer to early votes being cast and election day itself, several of the key Senate races are a focal point of attention.

It appears at this point the Republicans are on a path to secure at least a 51-49 majority with wins in West Virginia and Montana, while GOP challengers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are getting closer. Democrats are countering with big spending in three Republican states, Florida, Nebraska, and Texas, hoping to score an upset in order to save their small majority.

Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno (R)

• Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is running for a fourth term and has held the polling lead for the entire campaign, but recent surveys suggest a tightening of the contest. Though former President Donald Trump has established a healthy lead in the Buckeye State, a place he has twice won by eight percentage points, Sen. Brown has continued to post an advantage over GOP businessman Bernie Moreno.

The trend, however, shows a tightening of the race. While Sen. Brown led consistently by five points earlier in the cycle, the most recent nine polls suggest an average lead of only 1.5 percentage points. Therefore, with Trump doing well at the top of the ticket, and Moreno closing the gap, we definitely see a trend moving toward the GOP challenger in this hot Ohio race.

• Overcoming the Casey family political legacy in Pennsylvania is a difficult task for Republicans considering Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) has won three statewide campaigns and his father, the late Bob Casey Sr. (D) scored four victories, two as attorney general and two as governor.

The senator has enjoyed consistent polling leads through the election campaign, but the later polls are tightening. Instead of holding an average high single-digit advantage, Sen. Casey’s average lead has dropped to four points according to the last 10 published polls. While the trend is favorable for Republican challenger David McCormick, it may not be strong enough to deny the senator re-election.

• In a similar pattern to that of Sen. Casey, Wisconsin two-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) has also seen her once more formidable lead getting smaller. Typically reaching high single to low double digits over businessman Eric Hovde (R), the senator’s average edge over the last 13 polls has dropped to four percentage points.

Since Wisconsin typically features tight statewide election results, such polling results are not surprising. Considering that both she and Sen. Casey have never trailed in the multitude of surveys conducted in their states, we can also expect Sen. Baldwin to return for another term.

The Democrat challengers in Florida and Texas — along with the Independent that the Nebraska Democratic establishment backs — are continuing to post close polling numbers, but like with the established Democratic incumbents in their competitive campaigns, the GOP incumbents remain favored.

• While polls consistently show Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R) three to four points ahead of former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), the margin is likely higher. In 2018, when Sen. Scott, then the state’s governor, unseated then-Sen. Bill Nelson (D), he did so with a 10,033-vote victory from a voter pool that exceeded eight million ballots.

At that time, Democrats held a 257,000-person lead in voter registration over Republicans. Today, there are 1.05 million more Republicans than Democrats, indicating that the state has moved over 1.3 million people in the Republicans’ favor since the last time Sen. Scott was on the ballot.

With pollsters missing the Republican voter strength in the Florida statewide races by seven points in 2022, and considering the huge registration changes, the trends below the radar heavily favor a Scott re-election victory.

• A surprise Senate race always seems to appear in every cycle, and we have one forming in Nebraska. Here, Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who doesn’t even have a Democratic opponent, finds herself in a legitimately tight campaign with Independent Dan Osborn. In four polls taken since the beginning of September, Osborn holds an average lead of just under two percentage points.

This contest needs to be monitored, since the trends do suggest an upset is possible. While Trump and Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) enjoy strong double digit leads in the same polls as mentioned above, the Fischer race has become a serious contest. Sen. Fischer may be able to right her political ship since the campaign has sprung into action and is hard at work trying to paint Osborn as a liberal Democrat, but only time will tell if their strategy will be successful.

• In Texas, talk continues, just as it did in 2018, that Sen. Ted Cruz (R) is in danger of losing his seat. While Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) pulls within an average of four points opposite the incumbent over the most recent 12 polls from the beginning of September, the path is still a difficult one for the challenger.

With the Biden-Harris energy policies not favorable to the dominant Texas oil and gas industry, the Lone Star State being most affected by the southern border issue, and south Texas sees Hispanic support rising for Republicans, the timing doesn’t appear favorable to reverse a Republican statewide winning streak that begin in 1996.

While the trends undoubtedly suggest a close finish, as was the case when Cruz defeated then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) by just three points in 2018, the most likely outcome this year is another Cruz victory. The Democrats are increasing strength in the Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio metro areas, but their gains are not large enough to neutralize the rest of America’s second-most populous state.

All six of the races covered above are well worth increased political attention as the campaign cycle draws to a close. While the Republicans appear to be on track to secure at least a minimum majority, an upset in one of the Republican incumbent campaigns could reverse such an impending trend.