Tag Archives: Florida

Florida, NY, OK Primaries; Term Limits Polling; Whitmer With Larger Lead

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 23, 2022

Primaries

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)

Florida — The Sunshine State voters also will choose their nominees today, and many important intra-party races will be decided.

Gov. DeSantis Well Ahead in Pre-Primary Poll — Florida voters will choose their general election nominees today, and a new Cherry Communications survey (conducted for the Florida Chamber of Commerce; Aug. 4-15; 608 likely Florida general election voters; live interview) projects Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as well positioned for re-election. The CC poll results find the governor leading US Rep. Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg) 51-43 percent, while his advantage over state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried is a similar 50-43 percent. This, in a state where Republicans traditionally under-poll. Crist, the former governor and multi-time statewide candidate who has run, and lost, under the Democratic, Republican, and Independent banners.

After recent polls found Florida Crist falling into an increasingly more competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary campaign with Fried, a new St. Pete Polls survey, on election eve, finds the congressman and former governor now ahead in a landslide. The St. Pete Polls survey (Aug. 20-21; 1,617 likely Florida Democratic primary voters; interactive voice response system) projects Rep. Crist to be holding a major 59-30 percent lead, far above any advantage he has recently posted. The Democratic winner will face Gov. DeSantis in November and will face an uphill battle against DeSantis in a campaign that will become a national event.

The Senate nomination contests in both parties, while leading to a competitive general election, are set. Sen. Marco Rubio (R) will be defending his seat against US Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando), the former Orlando police chief. Recent polling has tightened, but voting history suggests that Sen. Rubio has at least a small lead.

A large number of US House races feature competitive nomination battles beginning in northwestern Florida’s 1st District where controversial Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach) is in a serious campaign with former FedEx executive Mark Lombardo. Gaetz’s highly publicized legal trouble is front and center in this race as well as Lombardo charging that the congressman’s national activities and profile have taken his attention away from serving the local district. This is certainly a race to watch, and a Lombardo upset is possible.

Florida gained a new seat in national reapportionment, and the state’s 15th District has been created. The district stretches from Lakeland into Tampa and leans Republican but we can expect some competition in the general election. Both parties feature five-person candidate fields. Polling suggests that former Secretary of State Laurel Lee has the inside track for the Republican nomination over state Sen. Kelli Stargel (R-Lakeland) and state Rep. Jackie Toledo (R-Tampa). The leading Democrat appears to be former news anchorman and two-time congressional nominee Alan Cohn.

New York — When the New York Court of Appeals, the state’s highest court, ordered the congressional districts and state Senate map redrawn, a second primary was scheduled just for these races. The original NY primary was held on June 28. The congressional and state Senate nominees will be finally decided today, and many US House contests are in a competitive mode.

Oklahoma: Close Result on Tap for Tonight in OK-2 — When Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville) opted to run for the Senate, his open eastern Oklahoma congressional district drew a crowded 14-candidate Republican field. In the June 28 regular primary for the strongest GOP district in the state (R+55 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization), two candidates advanced into today’s runoff election even though they finished with less than 30 percent of the aggregate primary vote combined.

State Rep. Avery Frix (R-Muskogee) topped former state Sen. Josh Brecheen (R-Ada) by just 757 votes to secure the first runoff position. Brecheen then claimed the second slot over former Muskogee Police Chief Johnny Teehee by an even lesser 616-vote margin. In all, the top five candidates finished within 2,892 votes of each other.

Polling finds that the race still remains tight. The wrap-up Sooner Poll (Aug. 11-17; number of likely voter polling respondents undisclosed) projected Rep. Frix holding the lead, but with only a 43-35 percent margin. While Frix apparently enjoys a small edge, this race is still anybody’s game.

Rep. Mullin has enjoyed large leads in his bid for the Senate in post-primary polling up until the latest release. Immediately after the June 28 primary election, where he easily topped former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon, 44-18 percent within a field of 12 candidates, Rep. Mullin was seeing average leads of 18 percentage points among three polls conducted from July 25 through Aug. 15.

The latest study, however, from the Sooner Poll, which is an add-on track from their Aug. 11-15 survey that ended on Aug. 17 (322 likely Oklahoma Republican runoff voters), shows the congressman’s statewide advantage at only 53-47 percent over Shannon. Tonight’s special runoff winner will advance into the general election against former US Rep. Kendra Horn (D).

Governor

Michigan: Whitmer With Larger Lead — Countering last week’s published Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) teamed Michigan governor’s study (Aug. 8-14; 1,365 likely Michigan voters; live interview & text) that projected Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) to be leading online talk show host Tudor Dixon (R) 51-46 percent, Democratic pollster Blueprint Polling (Aug. 15-16; 611 likely Michigan general election voters; live interview) posts the governor to a much larger 51-39 percent advantage.

Ohio: One-Point Lead — Democratic pollster Lake Research (Aug. 4-9; 611 OH likely general election voters; live interview) released their latest survey that finds Gov. Mike DeWine (R) holding only a narrow one-point, 44-43 percent, edge over Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley (D).

This result is not particularly surprising. First, the Ohio electorate typically polls close and then one candidate significantly pulls away in the campaign’s last two weeks. Second, Gov. DeWine won his Republican primary with only 48.1 percent of the vote opposite three opponents suggesting clear weakness within his party’s base. Additionally, over one-third of DeWine voters say their support for him is “not so strong” or that they are only “leaning” in his direction. Expect the governor to soon use his strong financial advantage to put distance between he and Mayor Whaley.

Conflicting Polls in Florida; Vance Rebounds in Ohio; Fetterman Bounces Back With Big Lead in PA

By Jim Ellis — August 19, 2022

Senate

Rubio | Demmings

Florida: Conflicting Polls — A pair of polls was recently released, and each shows a different leader. The University of North Florida released their survey (Aug. 8-12; 1,624 registered Florida voters; online) and surprisingly found Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando) leading incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R) by a 48-44 percent clip, the first time any poll had shown a result such as this since early May. In six polls since that time, Sen. Rubio had led in four with two dead heat ties.

Simultaneously, the Center Street PAC surveyed the Florida electorate (Aug. 12-14; 610 likely Florida voters) and found a completely different result. This poll projects Sen. Rubio to a 52-41 percent likely voter advantage, and a smaller 46-39 percent edge among the larger pool of 996 Florida registered voters. These two polls, conducted within the same relative time frame, show the volatility in the current race, which is typical for Florida election polling. Republican votes are also usually slightly under-counted in Sunshine State polls, as well.

Ohio: Vance Rebounds to Lead — After seeing a series of six statewide polls that projected Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) to be holding a small lead over author J.D. Vance (R), the new Emerson College survey sees a GOP rebound. The Emerson poll (Aug. 15-16; 925 likely Ohio general election voters) finds Vance reversing the field to claim a three-point 45-42 percent edge.

The results are to be expected. Rep. Ryan developed a lead when spending $7 million-plus on early advertising with no counter from Vance or Republican outside groups. Now beginning to promote their message, we see a new survey reflecting Vance in a better position. Typically, the Ohio electorate polls close until the final weeks when one candidate pulls away, usually the Republican, and wins the race going away.

Pennsylvania: Fetterman Returns With Big Lead — Still recovering from a major stroke suffered right before the May 17 Pennsylvania primary, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman returned to the campaign trail late last week. This week, a new poll shows him expanding his lead over Dr. Mehmet Oz (R). Public Opinion Strategies released the results of their new August survey conducted for the Pittsburgh Works Together organization (Aug. 7-10; 600 registered Pennsylvania voters; live interview) that posts Fetterman to a 52-36 percent lead over Dr. Oz. This 16-point spread represents the largest polling margin of this campaign.

House

VA-7: Rep. Spanberger Holding Edge — RMG Research, conducting their series of polls around the country for US Term Limits (July 31-Aug. 6; 400 likely VA-7 voters) finds two-term Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) leading Prince William County Supervisor Vesli Vega (R) by a 46-41 percent margin, suggesting we will see a highly competitive campaign effort from both sides throughout the remaining part of the general election cycle. Though upside-down in job approval in the 7th CD, President Biden’s ratio is better than in most places, 48:51 percent positive to negative. The Biden factor should be less of a drain on Rep. Spanberger than it may prove on certain Democratic candidates in other places.

Governor

Pennsylvania: Shapiro Up, Too — The aforementioned Public Opinion Strategies survey (see Pennsylvania Senate above) also tested the open Pennsylvania governor’s race. The ballot test on this contest favors Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro over Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R-Fayetteville) by a strong 51-37 percent margin, slightly less than the Senate Democratic spread, but more than enough to secure a comfortable victory.

Florida House Primary Polls; Succeeding the Late Rep. Walorski

By Jim Ellis — August 18, 2022

House

Florida: Series of House Primary Polls — Late primary polling was released in several Florida US House districts in anticipation of the Aug. 23 statewide primary election.

In the newly created open 4th Congressional District seat in Jacksonville, St. Pete Polls (Aug. 4; 312 FL-4 registered Republican voters; interactive voice response system) state Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean (R-Jacksonville), with the support of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), has a huge lead over his main opponent, Erick Aguilar (R). The ballot test finds Sen. Bean holding a whopping 59-16 percent advantage. Aguilar got into trouble in the race when intimating in fundraising appeals that Gov. DeSantis supported him. The governor then made his preference clear, which sent the Aguilar campaign on a downward spiral.

St. Pete Polls also conducted a very small sample survey of the state’s 7th District, which now includes part of the Orlando area and stretches to the Atlantic Ocean through Volusia County. Though the poll (Aug. 5; 205 FL-7 likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system) is far below the typical sample-size standard for a congressional district, the results were consistent with other earlier polls. This one found Iraq/Afghan War veteran Cory Mills, who attracted national attention when organizing flights into Afghanistan to rescue people when the Taliban was over-running the country, leading state Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R-Howey-in-the-Hills) 23-22 percent. Though the race features eight Republican candidates, the primary battle appears to be winnowing down to Mills and Sabatini. The Republican primary winner will be favored in the general election.

The open St. Petersburg-anchored 13th District is also featuring a close contest. An American Viewpoint survey (July 24-27; 400 FL-13 likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds attorney Kevin Hayslett coming close to 2020 GOP nominee Anna Paulina Luna, who carries former President Trump’s endorsement. The AV results found Luna leading Hayslett, 36-34 percent. Reports suggest that a more recent Hayslett internal poll drew a similar conclusion. The Republican winner will oppose former Defense Department official Eric Lynn who is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. The post-redistricting 13th now favors a Republican in the general election.

St. Pete Polls also conducted a small-sample survey of the state’s new 15th District race, the seat Florida gained in national reapportionment. The poll (Aug. 1; 275 FL-15 likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system) is another survey too small to be considered highly reliable, but the result shows such an overwhelming spread as to be reliable. The St. Pete ballot test finds former Secretary of State Laurel Lee leading state Sen. Kelli Stargel (R-Lakeland), state Rep. Jackie Toledo (R-Tampa), and retired Navy Capt. Kevin McGovern, 44-16-11-5 percent respectively. Though the general election will be competitive, St. Pete Polls has not surveyed the Democratic primary here.

Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Miramar) won the special Democratic primary by just five votes over former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness to replace the late Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Delray Beach), but little polling has been conducted of the regular election re-match. The most recent survey, from RMG Research, came in early June and found the new congresswoman topping Holness, 45-21 percent. Still, this is a race to watch on Aug. 23. The Democratic winner will secure the seat in November.

IN-2: Defeated AG Announces for House Seat — Former Attorney General Curtis Hill (R), who was rejected in the Republican renomination process after sexual impropriety claims became public, is in the congressional candidate mix to succeed the late Rep. Jackie Walorski (R). After the claims became public, Hill was suspended from practicing law for a 30-day period, which was enough to force his resignation from office.

To replace Walorski on the ballot for both the special election to fill her unexpired term and the regular election, the 2nd District Republican committee will meet on Aug. 20 to select a new nominee. Also requesting consideration for the nomination are state Rep. Curtis Nisly (R-Elkhart County); former state Rep. Christy Stutzman, wife of former US Rep. Marlin Stutzman; businessman Rudolph Yakym, a former Walorski finance director who has the congresswoman’s widowed husband’s endorsement; and attorney Tiernan Kane.

The Democrats are expected to nominate their 2022 congressional nominee, educator Paul Steury, who won the May 3 primary. Republicans are favored to hold the seat, which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+26.

Beasley Up in North Carolina; CO-8 Shows Toss-Up Race; Dem Race Tightens in Florida

By Jim Ellis — August 12, 2022

Senate

Former North Carolina state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D)

North Carolina: Democrat Beasley Up in New Poll — Blueprint Polling released a new North Carolina US Senate poll (Aug. 4-6; 656 registered North Carolina voters; live interview) that projects former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) to be holding a 46-42 percent edge over US Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance). A Republican being down in a North Carolina poll is nothing new, however. In 2020, GOP Sen. Thom Tillis found himself outside the lead in 26 of 28 October public polls but won the race by two percentage points.

House

CO-8: Toss-Up District Shows Toss-Up Race — Colorado received a new congressional district in national reapportionment, and the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew the new seat, located just north of Denver, to be an even district from a partisan perspective. A new Global Strategy Group poll (July 26-Aug. 2; 500 likely CO-8 general election voters) suggests the district is performing as designed. The ballot test finds Republican state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer leading state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) by a tight 44-42 percent margin. This district is highly important to both parties in determining the next congressional majority.

NY-12: Potential Three-Way Race — Slingshot Strategies, polling for the Indian American Impact Fund (Aug. 2-5; 600 likely NY-12 Democratic primary voters) sees a tight ballot test forming between Democratic paired incumbents Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn Maloney, but also a third candidate coming into range. Businessman Suraj Patel returns for a third Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Maloney, and the poll, the sponsors of which favor Patel, find the race breaking 29-27-20 percent in favor of Rep. Nadler. Maloney holds a close second place, with Patel showing enough momentum to possibly make a significant closing run.

The New York congressional primary is Aug. 23. The Democratic primary in this new Lower Manhattan/Brooklyn congressional district easily wins the seat in the general election.

Governor

Florida: Dem Race Tightens — State Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried released a new Public Policy Polling survey (Aug. 8-9; 664 likely Florida Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) that suggests the primary race scheduled for Aug. 23 is becoming much closer.

The PPP data finds Rep. Charlie Crist’s (D-St. Petersburg) once substantial lead over Fried now falling to just 42-35 percent suggesting that the latter candidate may have enough closing momentum to cast doubt over the eventual outcome especially with 23 percent saying they are still undecided. The eventual Democratic nominee begins a shortened general election cycle in the underdog position opposite GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Tied Poll for Florida Senate Race? Ryan Leads in Ohio; Hererra Beutler Behind in WA-3

By Jim Ellis — August 11, 2022

Senate

Florida: Demings Touting Tied Poll — Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando) is brandishing a new poll that finds she and Sen. Marco Rubio (R) tied at 45 percent apiece. This is only the second poll of the 10 released this year that does not project the senator as the race leader. The Clarity Campaigns survey (July 26-31) conducted an online survey of 2,244 registered voters from a pre-selected panel. Since 2016, pollsters have typically underestimated Republican strength in Florida, so it is reasonable to add a couple of percentage points for the Republican candidate in a typical Sunshine State poll.

Ohio: Heavy Campaign Spending Keeps Rep. Ryan in Lead — Riding a major campaign spending wave, thus taking advantage of his abundant campaign war chest, US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) again sees a developing lead in his race against Republican nominee and author J.D. Vance. The just released Impact Research survey (July 21-28; 800 likely Ohio general election voters) projects Ryan as holding a 48-45 percent edge in the race for the open Ohio Senate seat. Last month, the same firm also found Ryan holding an almost identical lead at 48-45 percent.

The Ryan campaign has spent over $6.5 million on the airwaves since the end of May according to the Politico news publication, with virtually no counter media push from the Vance forces. Though Rep. Ryan has had the field virtually to himself in the early going, he still does not expand beyond the polling margin of error. When Vance does counter, we are likely to see a Republican rebound here.

House

Trump-endorsed former retired Army officer Joe Kent (R)

WA-3: Rep. Hererra Beutler Now Behind — New results from the laborious Washington ballot counting process have put Trump-endorsed former retired Army officer Joe Kent (R) ahead of six-term incumbent Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Battle Ground/ Vancouver) by 960 votes with still several thousand ballots left to count. Officials report that it may be as long as Aug. 16 before the totals are finalized.

Since the bulk of the outstanding ballots are from Thurston County, an entity where Kent placed first, some analysts are declaring that Rep. Herrera Beutler will not be able to rebound. At this point, Democrat Marie Glusenkamp Perez places first and will advance to the general election presumably to face Kent.

If this trend holds and Herrera Beutler is defeated, it will mean that 11 House incumbents will have already lost their seats in the 2022 election cycle, and 68 seats will be open in the general election. Republican prospects to hold the 3rd District are strong despite the incumbent losing and a Democrat placing first in the jungle primary, however. A total of 64.8 percent of the more than 208,000 primary voters at this point voted for a Republican candidate.

Governor

Oklahoma Poll: Governor’s Race Closer Than Expected — The Democratic online polling firm Change Research released their latest Oklahoma Governor’s survey (July 22-26; 2,079 likely Oklahoma general election voters; online) and sees Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) in a tighter battle than expected against Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister (D). The ballot test projects the governor to be holding only a 42-34 percent advantage.

The main reason for Stitt’s downturn apparently relates to his falling job approval rating. According to the Change numbers, the governor’s favorability index has slid to 42:56 percent favorable to unfavorable. It is probable, however, that the governor will be able to rebound and score a convincing win in November. It is difficult to predict a deep red state like Oklahoma going Democratic in what appears to be at least a relatively strong Republican election year.