Tag Archives: Chris Christie

Christie Making Moves; Davidson Declines to Run in Ohio; Manchin Behind in New WVa Poll; Utah’s Rep. Stewart to Resign

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 1, 2023

President

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R)

Chris Christie: Ex-New Jersey Gov Making Moves to Enter Presidential Race — Published reports are indicating that allies of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) are forming a Super PAC to aid his budding presidential efforts. After the PAC is formed, it is believed Christie will enter the race within the next two weeks, thus bringing the Republican field to at least seven candidates with another four likely to step forward.

Polling suggests, however, that regardless of the number of entries, only two, former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, consistently break into double digits. It is also clear, just as it was in 2016, that the large field helps Trump since he has the strongest base within the Republican primary voter universe.

Senate

Ohio: Rep. Davidson Won’t Run for Senate — Citing the closeness of the House Republican majority through the next election, Ohio Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Troy) announced that he will not join the US Senate race to oppose incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) but will seek re-election to his 8th District House seat. Davidson was first elected in a 2016 special election to replace former House Speaker John Boehner (R).

Though it appeared that Rep. Davidson was preparing to enter the race, he said his decision not to do so was based upon the amount of time that a statewide campaign would take away from his House duties. In the Senate race are state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a 2022 Senate candidate who is a minority owner of the Cleveland Guardians Major League Baseball Club, and businessman Bernie Moreno, who Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance endorsed last week. Expected to join the campaign next month is GOP Secretary of State Frank LaRose. The Ohio Senate race promises to be one of the most competitive in the nation.

West Virginia: New Poll: Manchin Way Behind — East Carolina University released the results of their new West Virginia political poll (May 22-23; 957 registered West Virginia voters; live interview; interactive voice response system; online) and the ballot test results post Gov. Jim Justice to a major 54-32 percent lead over Sen. Joe Manchin (D). If Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) were to win the Republican nomination, he would fall into a toss-up battle with Sen. Manchin, leading 42-41 percent according to this survey.

If these polling results continue, Sen. Manchin may find that running for the office of president on the No Labels Party ticket may be his best political option.

House

UT-2: Rep. Chris Stewart Prepares to Resign — Six-term Utah US Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington), who at one time was thought to be interested in launching a gubernatorial or US Senate campaign, is reportedly preparing to resign from the House possibly by the end of this week. Stewart’s wife’s ongoing health situation is the reason he will be leaving his position.

Gov. Spencer Cox (R) will set the special primary and general election calendar within seven days of Rep. Stewart officially resigning. The 2nd District political parties will first meet in a special district convention to select a candidate. The individual candidate eventually receiving majority support from the voting delegates will advance into the primary.

Other candidates may petition onto the ballot. A general election will then follow. It is probable the special general will be held Nov. 7, 2023, concurrently with municipal elections in the state.

Christie: “Stop Trump”; The Jan. 6 Effect in OH-9; RI-1 Candidate List Grows; Chicago Runoff on Tues.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 31, 2023

President

Former NJ Gov. Chris Christie

Chris Christie: Unique Pitch — Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) is making appearances in New Hampshire and telling Republicans that they “need him” on the debate dais in order to “stop Trump.” It is unlikely that such a strategy will bear much political fruit, but it is certainly possible that Christie will enter the presidential race.

House

OH-9: New Candidate Emerges — Ohio US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) is one of only five Democrats who represent seats that former President Donald Trump carried in 2020. Post-redistricting, Rep. Kaptur found herself placed in a seat that is strongly Republican, but was fortunate in drawing GOP candidate J.R. Majewski, who was part of the January 6 raid on the Capitol. She easily dispensed with her opponent, 57-43 percent, despite the district’s R+6 partisan lean.

A new contender came to the forefront yesterday, which will likely make the 2024 race much more competitive. In what is expected to be the first of several Republican candidates to announce, former Walbridge Mayor Dan Wilczynski yesterday made his declaration.

Rep. Kaptur is the Dean of House Democrats. She was first elected in 1982, thus serving her 21st two-year term.

RI-1: Candidate List Continues to Grow — Despite Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) not resigning his seat until June 1, the list of impending special election candidates continues to grow. Woonsocket Mayor Lisa Baldelli-Hunt (D) is adding her name to the list of those either announcing for the seat or considering entering the campaign. Her addition expands the candidate and potential candidate list to nine Democrats. At a D+32 rating, Rep. Cicilline’s successor will be determined in the special Democratic primary.

Baldelli-Hunt is the aunt of Rocco Baldelli, who is the manager of the Minnesota Twins Major League Baseball club. Gov. Dan McKee (D) will issue the special election calendar as soon as Rep. Cicilline officially resigns.

Cities

Chicago: Conflicting Surveys — Yesterday, we covered a poll released by Emerson College, which posted former Chicago Schools CEO Paul Vallas to a 46-41 percent lead over Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson. Now we see a new survey coming into the public domain that shows Johnson in better standing.

Northwestern University’s Center for Diversity and Democracy and several Black and Latino non-profit organizations contracted with the BSP survey research firm (March 15-23; 1,500 registered Chicago voters; live interview, email, and online panel) and produced data that finds the two candidates locked in a 44-44 percent dead heat.

The runoff election is Tuesday, and we are guaranteed a tight finish between the two jungle primary finishers. In the qualifying election, incumbent Lori Lightfoot (D) was defeated.

New Jersey Primary Today

By Jim Ellis

June 6, 2017 — The 2017-18 election cycle’s first regular primary is occuring today as New Jersey voters head to the polls to choose major party nominees in the governor’s race. This campaign will lead to replacing term-limited state chief executive and former Republican presidential candidate Chris Christie.

We can expect a low turnout, because it appears a foregone conclusion that Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno and former US Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy will easily win the Republican and Democratic nominations, respectively.

Polls have been few and far between, and the three surveys that were released in May show strong and solid margins for both Guadagno and Murphy. The most recent study, from Stockton University (May 16-23; 389 likely New Jersey GOP primary voters) finds Guadagno with a 37-18 percent advantage over Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli and three others who don’t even top four percent support. Earlier in the month, Quinnipiac University April 26-May 1; 331 likely New Jersey GOP primary voters) surveyed the state and found Guadagno up in similar fashion: 23-12 percent over Ciattarelli with no other candidate breaking five percent.

Continue reading →

Is Cuccinelli Suddenly Narrowing the Gap in Virginia?

Two just-released polls suggest that Virginia’s embattled Republican gubernatorial nominee Ken Cuccinelli is making strides in his battle against Terry McAuliffe, the former Democratic National Committee chairman, but even this data still portends that the latter will win the race next Tuesday.

The least credible of the two surveys comes from Zogby-Newsmax (dates and sample size not released). The results reveal a McAuliffe lead of only 35-30 percent, with nine percent headed for Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis. No other poll has shown such a low determined number of voters. Zogby then removed all of the undecideds and the adjusted report gives McAuliffe a 43-37 percent advantage, with Sarvis posting 11 percent.

Two additional sector reports also initiate skepticism. First, the pollster suggests that Libertarian Sarvis “hitting double-digits is very doable.” Often times third-party candidates poll well during a race, normally when both major party candidates are negatively viewed as in this Virginia race. Rarely, if ever, do they exceed the 10 percent figure, however. The Zogby statement about Sarvis’ potential performance ignores virtually all previous trends.

In the most recent race where the Independent candidate was a potentially serious factor occurred in New Jersey back in 2009. Then, Chris Daggett was polling far better against Chris Christie and then-Gov. Jon Corzine than Sarvis is against McAuliffe and Cuccinelli, but finished with just under 6 percent of the vote.

Second, the Zogby poll projects that approximately one-third of African-American voters are still undecided. Based upon voting history and turnout projections, this is an unrealistic and clearly incorrect conclusion. Factoring in the typical African-American share of the electorate added to their traditional overwhelming support of the Democratic candidate would then allow McAuliffe to claim a much bigger lead than the five points illuminated in the spread above.

The second poll, from Quinnipiac University (Oct. 22-28; 1,182 likely Virginia voters) – an organization that regularly surveys the Continue reading >

Newark Mayor Booker’s Plans for Governor

Newark Mayor Cory Booker

Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D), who has been publicly debating whether he should challenge New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) next year, has decided not to do so. Instead, he intends to complete his second term as mayor, but would consider a run for the US Senate in 2014.

Does this mean he will launch a primary challenge to Sen. Frank Lautenberg, who will turn 88 years old before the next election? Booker remained silent on such a possibility, other than to make laudatory comments about the senator. Lautenberg has expressed a desire to run again but his age clearly makes him a retirement possibility.

Without the Democrats’ top choice in the governor’s race, it appears that Christie may be fortunate enough to draw a second-tier opponent. The only announced Democratic candidate is state Sen. Barbara Buono, but questions surround whether she can mount the type of excessively expensive campaign necessary to oust the first-term Republican governor.

A New Primary Schedule

Florida’s move this past weekend to change its primary date to Jan. 31 in violation of Republican National Committee rules will drastically alter the GOP presidential nomination fight. Under RNC dictates, the only states permitted to conduct a delegate selection event prior to the March 6 Super Tuesday date are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Florida is willing to accept penalties that will reduce their 99-member Republican National Committee delegation to approximately 50, coupled with other sanctions, in order to make the move.

But accepting intra-party punishment is not the only factor involved in altering their election schedule. Under the Voting Rights Act, all or parts of 16 states are subjected to federal approval of all electoral moves, including primary/caucus date selection. Therefore, it is the Obama Justice Department that will have to grant Florida, New Hampshire, and South Carolina “pre-clearance” or, in this case, permission, to schedule a nominating event in January 2012. Only Iowa and Nevada, in this group of five states, may move unencumbered because they are not part of the group of 16.

The RNC’s originally proposed calendar began with the Iowa Caucus in early February, but Florida’s attempted move to the last day in January means the other four states are forced to leap-frog the Sunshine State in order to maintain their prominent political position. This means five nominating events, two caucuses (IA, NV) and three primaries (NH, SC, FL), will be held in the first month of next year followed by a five-week void until Super Tuesday in early March.

How does the proposed schedule change affect the current crop of candidates and potential late entries? The big winners under the new calendar are the two front-runners, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. The early and compressed voting schedule favors the better-known candidates and those having the largest campaign war chests. The quicker time frame featuring five shotgun-style nominating events in a 29-day period gives less time to the current also-rans to ramp up a credible campaign and makes gaining momentum from an early surprise victory even more difficult because there simply won’t be enough time to cement a previous win.

But the potential late entries are an even greater disadvantage under the new voting schedule because they will now have less time to construct a major campaign operation from scratch. Therefore, Florida’s decision this weekend makes it even more unlikely that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and former Vice-Presidential nominee Sarah Palin will become official candidates.

If the GOP fight winnows down to a two-candidate race in January, then watch for a very interesting race. Perry wins a one-on-one match with Romney if he can successfully cast himself as the conservatives’ candidate and frame Romney as the moderate. On the other hand, as we have seen particularly in the last 10 days, Romney has the superior campaign apparatus, so Perry will have to make a rapid operational improvement or he risks losing his early strong standing.

As so often in American politics, the schedule can be the determining factor in deciding battles. Such may be the case with the 2012 GOP presidential contest. At the very least, however, this weekend’s Florida decision has set this campaign upon a brand new course.

Gov. Christie Rumors Gain Momentum

Despite repeatedly denying that he will run for President during this election cycle, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) is again the subject of intense speculation that it is imminent that he will throw his hat into the ring. Interestingly, this time the rumors are flying from both the left and the right. Yesterday on his national radio program, conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh said sources were telling him that Christie is making moves to enter the race. Back in Trenton, New Jersey’s capital city, state Senate President Steve Sweeney (D) said that the governor’s recent budgetary actions suggest that he is running for President.

If Gov. Christie entered the race, it would add yet another surprising twist to an already unpredictable presidential election cycle. With his strength in the Northeast, a Christie candidacy would be most detrimental to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who must capitalize on his strength in the north and east in order to neutralize what appear to be sure losses in the south. Since New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut are all winner-take-all Republican primary states, and represent a grand total of 173 delegates, a Christie sweep of his home turf would immediately make him a formidable force.

If Christie, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and ex-VP nominee Sarah Palin all were to run for President, in addition to Romney, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6), the race would be thrown into absolute chaos. Moves by any non-candidate entering the race will have to occur within the next month if any of them are to have a realistic chance of winning.
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