Tag Archives: California

Republican Candidates Still in Play in the Most Democratic of Districts

California’s 31st Congressional District, the country’s most Democratic congressional district represented by a Republican, lies in the heart of California’s Inland Empire and it’s an open seat once more. In 2012, President Obama captured 57 percent of the vote here against Republican Mitt Romney. The party registration breaks down 41-34-21 percent, Democratic, Republican, and Declined-to-State (Independent), respectively, according to the pre-primary official totals. Hispanics comprise 42 percent of the total population.

Two years ago, a statistical oddity occurred in the state’s first regular jungle primary. Due to an abnormally low Democratic turnout and because they had the more established candidates, Republicans were able to qualify two candidates for the general election, thus taking a seat right out of the Democrats’ hands. With incumbent Rep. Gary Miller (R) retiring this year, the 31st District again appears primed, at least on paper, for a Democratic conversion. The primary is set for June 3.

A new poll, however, suggests that at least one Republican will advance to the general election, making the Democrats’ victory Continue reading >

Rep. Miller’s Retirement Repercussions – The CA-31 Turn-Around

Yesterday, Rep. Gary Miller (R-CA-31) announced that he would retire at the end of this Congress and not seek re-election in his San Bernardino County US House district. The 31st in California is the most Democratic CD in the country to elect a Republican congressman. Against national GOP nominee Mitt Romney, Pres. Obama scored 57.2 percent of the vote here, providing a clear example of its partisan leanings.

The now open CA-31 becomes the best Democratic conversion opportunity in the country. With registration in their favor and a weak Republican presence post-Miller, chances are strong of a double-Democrat general election, meaning a sure Democratic gain.

Here’s why: The 2012 congressional result was quirky in the fact that this decidedly Democratic district sent two Republicans to the general election under California’s new Continue reading >

Democrats Make Important Endorsements for Upcoming Elections

California

Delegates from the California Democratic Party met in regional caucuses this past weekend to vote on a first round of official party endorsements. If a candidate becomes the party endorsed candidate, he or she is then placed on statewide slate mailers and can receive access to party campaign resources. At this preliminary endorsement level, a candidate must receive 70 percent of the voting delegates’ support in order to be placed on a consent calendar for pro forma approval at the Democratic State Convention. Falling short of the 70 percent plateau means further individual voting will occur at the convention, held this year on March 7-9 in Los Angeles.

With the state now instituting a jungle primary system where the top two finishers in the June 3 election advance to the general election irrespective of partisan preference, political party endorsements become more important. Therefore, these regional and Continue reading >

Waxman Seat Taking Shape

California Rep. Henry Waxman’s (D) surprise retirement announcement last week undoubtedly caught the Golden State’s Democratic establishment by surprise, but the local pols have quickly regained their bearings.

Two political heavyweights jumped into the race in the past three days, and it is possible that this could be the duo who qualifies for advancement to the general election. Los Angeles city controller and defeated mayoral candidate Wendy Greuel (D) and state Sen. Ted Lieu (D) have both officially entered the congressional race. Feminist Sandra Fluke (D), who came to prominence when Rush Limbaugh attacked her on his national radio program, says she isn’t entering the congressional campaign, but will run for Lieu’s now open state Senate seat.

Already members of the Los Angeles congressional delegation are taking sides, as is former mayor, Antonio Villaraigosa. Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-CA-40) announced her support for Greuel, while Rep. Karen Bass (R-CA-37) will back Sen. Lieu. The Continue reading >

Money Shows Who the Real Challengers Are

The Federal Election Commission has finally published the 4th quarter 2013 House financial numbers, and through the reports we can begin to ascertain the challenger candidates who are going to put forth serious political efforts later this election year.

Some who were predicted to be strong contenders are proving such:

• In Arizona, former Air Force officer Martha McSally (R), who lost to Rep. Ron Barber (D-AZ-2) by just under 2,500 votes in 2012, out-raised the congressman by just over $63,000 in the 4th quarter.

• Democratic former Colorado state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff outpaced incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO-6) by $45,000. Both have posted highly impressive off-year financial numbers. Each Continue reading >

California Loses 102 Years of Seniority

With yesterday’s retirement announcement from veteran Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA-33), added to the recent decisions of representatives George Miller (D-CA-11) and Buck McKeon (R-CA-25) not to seek re-election this year, California will lose a combined 102 years of congressional seniority in the next Congress. Both Waxman and Miller will have served for 40 years when their current terms expire, and Rep. McKeon’s tenure will have been 22 years. Though seniority is not as important in the more modern congressional era, particularly on the Republican side, a state simultaneously losing so much service time in its federal delegation is still significant.

Rep. Waxman was the unofficial senior partner of the famed Waxman-Berman political machine in Los Angeles County, which was a dominant force throughout California Democratic Party circles at its apex. His departure represents the end of an era in southern California politics. In 2012 Continue reading >

The Retirement Parade Continues

California Rep. Buck McKeon (R-CA-25) becomes the eleventh House member since Dec. 15 to announce retirement, and Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn (R) announced last night that he will resign from Congress at the end of 2014. Coburn’s move means that 36 Senate races will be contested this year.

At least Rep. Mckeon’s retirement is not a surprise. The House Armed Services Committee chairman yesterday confirmed and made formal the conventional wisdom that he would retire at the end of this current congressional term. The 75-year-old, 11-term congressman also indicated that his reaching the end of his term-limited period as the Armed Services Committee chair definitely played a role in his decision not to seek re-election.

McKeon’s move sets off what will be a very interesting June qualifying election. Already committing to run as Republicans are former state senator and 26th Congressional Continue reading >