By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Oklahoma
The Sooner State holds elections today in addition to the Alabama and Georgia runoffs we covered yesterday. Should no Oklahoma candidate secure majority support, the top two finishers will advance to an Aug. 25 runoff election.
With then-Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) leaving office to become Homeland Security Secretary, we will now see an open Oklahoma US Senate campaign. Under state law, an appointed Senator is ineligible to participate in the succeeding general election. Therefore, appointed Sen. Alan Armstrong (R) will serve only until the next Congress begins in January 2027.
The clear favorite to win the Republican nomination and then the general election is Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa). All the national and state party leaders have endorsed Rep. Hern including President Trump and term-limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R). Four other Republicans are competing for the nomination, but it will be surprising if Rep. Hern fails to win outright.
The open Governor’s race, however, will very likely go to a runoff. Nine Republicans are vying for the party nomination.
The latest polling suggests a four-way contest among Attorney General Gentner Drummond, former State Budget Secretary and ex-state Sen. Mike Mazzei, and former State Public Safety Secretary Chip Keating, the son of former Oklahoma Governor Frank Keating (1995-2003); Keating was previously an Associate US Attorney General in the Reagan Administration. Ex-state House Speaker Charles McCall, who led early in polling but has since dropped back, also is a candidate.
In Oklahoma’s US House races, the four remaining Republican incumbents, Reps. Josh Brecheen (R-Coalgate), Frank Lucas (R-Cheyenne), Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman), and Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) will all win renomination tonight. Each are solid favorites to win another term in the general election.
In Rep. Hern’s open Tulsa-anchored 1st District, we see a crowded 10-person Republican primary. Three appear as strong candidates. Pastor and investment advisor Jackson Lahmeyer, who President Trump and the Republican leadership support, is viewed as the leading contender. State Rep. Mark Tedford (R-Tulsa) and businessman Nathan Butterfield are also competitive candidates. Two of these three advancing to a runoff election is a likelihood.
The lone Democratic candidate is Tulsa School Board member John Croisant. The eventual Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the November election.
CA-14
Another of the current cycle’s special congressional elections continues today. The contest is in California’s East San Francisco Bay area Congressional District 14 from which ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) resigned after a series of scandalous behavior incidents became known, mostly involving unwanted advances individually against multiple women.
Under California special election procedure, all candidates are placed on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation or stated preference. If a candidate attracts majority support, the individual is elected outright. If no one reaches the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers advance to a special general election. In this case, the special general election, if necessary, is scheduled for Aug. 18.
Two weeks ago, in the regular California 2026 primary election, state Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) placed first in the jungle primary but with 38.3 percent of the vote within a field of nine candidates. Irrespective of how the special election concludes, Sen. Wahab will advance to the 2026 regular election against fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez (17.2 percent), a Bay Area Rapid Transit Board Member and a former city of Dublin mayor.
For the special election, the winner of which will serve the balance of former Rep. Swalwell’s term, 11 candidates are on the ballot, including Sen. Wahab and Hernandez.
It would not be surprising to see a similar result to what we saw in the June 2 primary with Wahab and Hernandez finishing first and second, but far below the necessary 50 percent plateau necessary toward immediately assuming the seat.
According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the 14th District’s partisan lean is and overwhelming 68.4D – 30.6R, meaning a Republican candidate would have virtually no chance to win an election here.
The 14th CD sits on the southeast side of the Bay sandwiched in between the cities of Oakland and San Jose. The major population centers are the cities of Fremont, Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. The East Bay region has been in Democratic hands consecutively since the 1974 election. Three individuals, all Democrats, represented the area during that time. They are, Reps. Norm Mineta, Fortney H. “Pete” Stark, and Swalwell.
