Category Archives: Primary

Trump Endorses Alaska Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom for House Seat; Ciscomani Leads in Arizona; Rare Poll in IL-17; Five-Term Rep. Graves Won’t Run in LA-6

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 21, 2024

House

Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R)

AK-AL: Trump Endorses Lt. Governor — The Alaska at-large district is the most Republican seat that a House Democrat holds. Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) has won three congressional elections, largely through the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system. This year, the stage may be set for a similar conclusion. Businessman Nick Begich III (R), nephew of former Democratic US Sen. Mark Begich (D), ran against former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) in the special election when veteran Rep. Don Young (R) passed away, and for both succeeding regular terms. This year, while Palin is not running, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom has joined the Republican congressional field.

Under the Alaska system, all candidates appear on the jungle primary ballot, and the top four primary finishers advance into the general election irrespective of political party affiliation. Former President Donald Trump announced his endorsement for Dahlstrom, the candidate who enjoys the national and state Republican Party leadership backing. With two strong candidates battling for the Republican vote, it is likely that Rep. Peltola will again finish first among the top four general election finalists. The question to be answered is whether she can reach the 50 percent mark. If not, Ranked Choice Voting then takes effect.

Begich says he will withdraw if Dahlstrom places ahead of him in the initial qualifying election on Aug. 20. Dahlstrom has yet to make a similar promise.

In the latest available published poll, though dated, from Data for Progress (Feb. 23-3/2; 1,120 likely AK-AL voters; online), Begich had a large 41-12 percent lead over Dahlstrom. In a head to head pairing against Rep. Peltola, the congresswoman and Begich tied at 50-50 percent. Once again, the Alaska at-large campaign is a race to watch.

AZ-6: Rep. Ciscomani Holds Comfortable Lead — An internal Public Opinion Strategies poll (May 28-30; 300 likely AZ-6 general election voters; live interview) for the Juan Ciscomani re-election campaign finds the freshman Arizona congressman holding a 50-39 percent advantage over former state senator and 2022 Democratic congressional nominee Kirsten Engel as the two prepare for a rematch from the campaign of two years ago.

The 6th District, which sits in Arizona’s southeastern corner, is politically marginal in nature but made more Republican in the 2021 redistricting plan. In the previous election, Ciscomani defeated Engel, 50.7 – 49.2 percent, a margin of 5,232 votes. The same survey finds former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden, but with a smaller margin than Rep. Ciscomani’s advantage, 49-45 percent. In 2020, Biden carried this region with the slightest 49.3 – 49.2 percent edge.

IL-17: Rare Poll is Published — If there is a competitive seat in the Illinois delegation, it is the far western 17th District, anchored in the Quad Cities, which freshman Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) now represents. Republicans nominated retired circuit judge Joe McGraw back in March. The 1892 survey research organization just released their polling data (released June 19; 400 likely IL-17 voters; live interview) and the results find Rep. Sorensen holding a 44-35 percent lead over McGraw.

The 17th was highly competitive prior to the last redistricting, but the legislative Democrats who drew the plan configured the 17th in a much different manner. The district configuration now resembles the form of a letter “C” beginning in the city of Rockford, then coming west to pick up the Illinois section of the Quad Cities, meaning the cities of Rock Island and Moline, and then turns east to include Galesburg, downtown Peoria, and the territory all the way to Bloomington. The FiveThirtyEight data organization calculates a D+4 rating for the post-redistricting 17th, but that number should realistically increase because of a new Democratic incumbent seeking re-election.

LA-6: Rep. Graves Won’t Run –– This year’s final chapter in the Louisiana redistricting saga perhaps has now been written. Earlier in this election cycle, a court struck down the Louisiana congressional map as a racial gerrymander because a second majority minority seat could be drawn and was not. Then the map was redrawn to transform the current 6th CD into such a district, but it stretched from Baton Rouge to Shreveport. Activists sued to get the map disqualified since it was similar to a draw the courts rejected in 1994 because the Constitution forbids race being a determining factor in drawing districts. Subsequently, the US Supreme Court issued a stay on that ruling, thus reviving the original redraw that created the state’s second majority minority seat.

Though there is likely to be a future challenge to the map, it appears evident that this will be the Louisiana congressional plan that prevails at least for the 2024 election. As a result, the odd man out on this draw is five-term Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) who was left with the choice of running in a decidedly Democratic new 6th CD (Biden ’20: 59-39 percent) or challenging either Republican incumbents Julia Letlow (R-Start) or Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette).

Graves has now decided not to challenge either member, saying he does not wish to upset the Republican political apple cart for what could only be a short-term map. The litigation in this redistricting case is far from over, so Graves’ congressional career may not be ending, but only suspended.

With Rep. Graves leaving the House and state Sen. Michael Rulli (R) winning the OH-6 special election on June 11, it means there are now 50 open congressional seats, 25 from the Democratic column, and 24 from the Republican side, along with the newly created Alabama district through that state’s redraw. The open seat number will reduce to 49 when the vacant Colorado District 4 is filled in a special election on June 25.

Trump Now Supports Florida Rep. Lee; Florida State Rep. Leaves Race; McGuire Declares Victory in VA-5;

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 20, 2024

House

FL-15 Rep. Laurel Lee

FL-15: Trump Reverses Course Regarding Rep. Lee — In April, former President Donald Trump called upon his political support base to field a Republican primary candidate against freshman Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa) in what is the most competitive of the Florida Republican-held congressional seats. Lee, who Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed as secretary of state before her election to the US House, endorsed DeSantis as the Republican candidate for president, not Trump, which caused Trump to originally target her for defeat.

No strong challenger to Lee came forward, however, although one — James Judge, who ran in the 14th District in 2022 — decided to hop into the race against Rep. Lee when Trump made his statement. Therefore, with the lack of a credible developing challenge against Rep. Lee, Trump has now given his “complete and total endorsement” to the congresswoman. Rep. Lee looks to be in strong position for renomination and for re-election, though she faces a credible Democratic challenger in the person of Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp in a 15th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7.

FL-11: Ex-State Rep. Abandons Primary Challenge — Former Florida state Rep. Anthony Sabatini, who was defeated for the Republican nomination two years ago in the 7th CD (Rep. Cory Mills-R) and had subsequently launched a Republican primary challenge to Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) in the state’s 11th District almost a year ago, now drops his bid.

Instead, Sabatini will run for a local county commissioner position. Remaining in the primary against Rep. Webster is geophysicist John McCloy. Without Sabatini in the race, Rep. Webster should have an easy run in the Aug. 20 primary, and in the general election.

VA-5: McGuire Declares Victory — Though the race has not been officially finalized, it does appear that Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) has been defeated for renomination. His opponent, state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot), thinks so and has publicly declared victory. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, all the outstanding votes have now been counted and McGuire has a 309-vote lead. With only provisional and overseas ballots left to be received and counted, it is highly unlikely that even this small lead can be overcome.

Once final, Rep. Good will be the first 2024 cycle incumbent of either party to lose renomination to a non-incumbent challenger. The only other incumbent defeat in either the Senate or the House occurred in Alabama when Reps. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) and Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) were paired in a court ordered redistricting plan. Moore scored a 52-48 percent victory on March 5. Other primary defeats may soon follow, however. On Tuesday, Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Celeste Maloy (R-UT) face serious primary challenges, and Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) attempts to win renomination from a new congressional district.

One Delaware House Candidate Left; Michigan Rejects Candidate Lawsuit; Bowman Trailing in NY-16 Poll; Florida Ex-Rep. Runs for State Senate

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 14, 2024

House

Delaware state Sen. Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington)

DE-AL: Dem Drops Out — Delaware State Housing Authority Director Eugene Young (D), who outgoing Gov. John Carney (D) was supporting for a US House seat that the state chief executive previously represented, announced that he is ending his congressional campaign to replace US Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington). For the time being, this leaves the Democratic field to state Sen. Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington) who, if elected, would become the first transgender individual elected to Congress. Candidate filing for the late Sept. 10 primary does not end until July 9, so it is still possible for other candidates to enter the race.

All of Delaware’s key offices are open. Gov. Carney is term limited but running for the open Wilmington mayor’s position. Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long (D) has declared for governor, leaving her position open. Rep. Blunt Rochester is running for retiring US Sen. Tom Carper’s seat, and the situation pertaining to the open at-large House seat was described above.

MI-10: Court Rejects Candidate’s Lawsuit — The Michigan state Court of Appeals rejected former congressional candidate and Wayne State University Board of Governors member Anil Kumar’s (D) lawsuit to reverse the State Board of Canvassers’ decision to disqualify him from the 10th District congressional race. The Board ruled that he did not submit 1,000 legal petition signatures, which is a requirement under Michigan election law. Kumar was a factor in the race after putting $1 million of his own money into his campaign account.

Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) won the seat in 2022 by less than a percentage point. His 2022 opponent, former Macomb County prosecutor and judge Carl Marlinga, is running again this year as are three other qualified Democrats. Expect Marlinga again to win the primary. The general election will once again be competitive in a 10th CD that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+6.

NY-16: New Poll Finds Rep. Bowman Again Trailing — A just-released Emerson College poll (June 6-8; 425 likely NY-16 Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Westchester County Executive George Latimer continuing to lead two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) by a rather wide margin, 48-31 percent. Latimer also has the advantage in campaign fundraising.

The bad news for Rep. Bowman continues. Former Secretary of State and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) also announced her formal endorsement of Latimer. Ironically, it was Bowman himself who challenged and defeated a Democratic incumbent in 2020, then-Rep. Eliot Engel. Not surprisingly, Engel has also endorsed County Executive Latimer.

While incumbents have had a perfect year so far in renomination campaigns, Bowman, a member of the controversial Democratic Socialist “Squad,” may be the most vulnerable incumbent standing before a primary electorate. The New York primary is scheduled for June 25.

States

Florida: Ex-Congressman to Run for State Senate — Earlier in the week former Sunshine State Congressman Alan Grayson (D) announced that he was ending his campaign for the US Senate well before the state’s Aug. 20 primary, yet he is not stepping away from elective politics. Almost immediately after leaving the federal campaign, he announced his entry into an open Democratic primary for a central Florida state Senate seat.

Grayson was originally elected to the 8th District House seat in 2008 but defeated for re-election in 2010. He then moved into one of Florida’s new seats gained in reapportionment and was re-elected to the House two years later from the 9th CD. He then ran for Senate in 2016 but lost the Democratic primary. He returned in 2018 with a bid to reclaim his 9th District House seat, but fell to the new incumbent, Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee) by a 2:1 margin. It remains to be seen if he can now win election to the Florida Senate.

Undefeated, But for How Long?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 13, 2024

Incumbents

Virginia Republican Congressman Bob Good (R-Lynchburg)

With the Tuesday victories of South Carolina Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and William Timmons (R-Greenville), US House incumbents facing credible primary challengers have stacked up an 11-0 win record this cycle, but several of the most serious contests have yet to come.

In the next 12 days, three races will occur where the outcome is unclear. On Tuesday, Virginia Republican Congressman Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) faces state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) in a contest that could result in the cycle’s first non-redistricting related incumbent loss. A week later, Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) find themselves in the most volatile races.

Rep. Good, the chairman of the House Freedom Caucus and one of the leaders of the GOP movement to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy, faces a primary electorate for the first time. In his two previous victories, Good was nominated through district conventions.

The congressman’s endorsement of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis against former President Donald Trump in this year’s early primaries raised Trump’s ire to the point of him publicly supporting Sen. McGuire. McCarthy is also involved in the race, helping to raise and direct money toward toppling the incumbent in order to avenge his own loss.

According to the latest publicly released survey, the mounting opposition to Good may produce results. The WPA Intelligence organization released a poll at the end of last week (June 2-4; 300 likely VA-5 Republican primary voters; live interview) finding Sen. McGuire holding a 41-31 percent lead over Rep. Good.

Looking at the resource charts, the pre-primary reporting period (through May 29) showed Sen. McGuire raising $1.24 million as compared to Rep. Good’s $1.15 million. McGuire also had a $400,000 cash-on-hand advantage. The outside money likewise favored McGuire. According to the Open Secrets organization, funds spent for McGuire and against Good totaled approximately $4.1 million. The aggregate spending for Good and against McGuire is a much smaller $2.04 million.

Turning to the June 25 primary, a just-released Emerson College poll (June 6-8; 425 likely NY-16 Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Westchester County Executive George Latimer continuing to lead two-term New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) by a rather wide margin, 48-31 percent.

Latimer also has the advantage in campaign fundraising. In the early reports, he held more than a $1 million advantage in campaign receipts. In terms of outside spending, Latimer’s margin is even more favorable. Just under $10 million has been spent for Latimer and against Bowman, while the congressman sees only $1.6 million in Super PAC expenditures either for him or against Latimer. Most of the anti-Bowman money has come from an organization associated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

The bad news for Rep. Bowman continues. Former US Secretary of State and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) yesterday announced her formal endorsement of Latimer.

The electoral resume also favors the Westchester County Executive. Latimer represents 91 percent of the 16th Congressional District in his current position, and he was previously elected to the New York state Senate and Assembly.

The Centennial State primary is also scheduled for June 25, and while Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) today looks like she will score a victory in the 4th District Republican primary, she took a major gamble when she left the western slope district to move into the rural eastern Colorado open seat. It appears, however, the roll of the dice is paying dividends.

The latest 4th District poll finds Rep. Boebert holding a big lead, but arguably her strongest opponent, Logan County Commissioner Jerry Sonneberg, was not included on the candidates’ ballot test question. Therefore, the poll results are questionable. Regardless, the congresswoman appears headed to a nomination victory in less than two weeks.

The troubling part for Boebert may be in the post-primary general election, a surprise in what has proven to be Colorado’s most Republican seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CO-4 as R+26, and former President Trump scored a 58-39 percent victory there over President Joe Biden in 2020.

A late May Gravis Marketing survey (May 22-24; 423 likely CO-4 general election voters), however, found Rep. Boebert trailing badly. In this hypothetical race, Marine Corps officer and two-time Democratic congressional nominee Ike McCorkle posted a 41-27 percent advantage.

While the incumbents have posted a perfect record so far this election cycle, such a trend may soon change.

Incumbents Prevail Again

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Primary Results

No major surprises occurred in primary elections last night. Once more, challenged incumbents all won their renomination efforts. The most competitive were in South Carolina. Turning to Ohio, Republican Michael Rulli, after trailing early, successfully claimed the 6th District special election to replace resigned Rep. Bill Johnson (R).

Austin Theriault (R), retired NASCAR driver and Maine state representative.

Maine — In the state’s lone competitive US House primary, as expected, retired NASCAR driver and state Rep. Austin Theriault (R-Ft. Kent) easily won the Republican primary, defeating fellow state representative and actor Mike Soboleski (R-Phillips) with almost two-thirds of the vote.

Theriault will advance into the general election against Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston). Should former President Donald Trump continue with his large polling lead in this district over President Joe Biden, the turnout model should be favorable for Theriault, thus making this a competitive race to watch in the general election. Ranked Choice Voting, which has previously helped Golden, will again be used in this race should no contender record majority support on the initial count.

Nevada — As expected, Afghan War veteran Sam Brown was an easy winner in the Republican Senate primary and now advances to officially challenge Sen. Jacky Rosen who was naturally a big winner in the Democratic primary. This will be a top-tier general election contest.

In the three potentially competitive Las Vegas House races, 2022 1st District nominee Mark Robertson appears to have won the multi-candidate Republican primary and will again challenge Rep. Dina Titus (D). Robertson did not run a particularly good campaign two years ago, losing by six percentage points. He will have to substantially improve if he is to become a serious contender in 2024.

In the 3rd District, the Republican primary is close, but it appears that marketing consultant Drew Johnson will prevail for the nomination. He will then advance to challenge Rep. Susie Lee (D) in what should be the most competitive of the three seats.

In District 4, former North Las Vegas Mayor and ex-Democrat John Lee, has won the Republican primary and will challenge veteran Rep. Steven Horsford (D) in November.

The three Las Vegas seats should be competitive, but the Democratic incumbents in each of the districts are early favorites to win re-election.

North Dakota — Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak, with backing from former President Trump and Gov. Doug Burgum, won the at-large Republican primary last evening defeating former state Rep. Rich Becker and 2018 Miss American Cara Mund. The Fedorchak nomination victory is tantamount to winning the at-large seat in the general election.

The House seat is open because three-term US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck) easily won the Republican gubernatorial nomination, as he defeated Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller with more than 70 percent of the GOP vote. Armstrong will now be the prohibitive favorite to replace retiring Gov. Burgum in the general election.

South Carolina — The most interesting House races were in South Carolina where two incumbents faced credible competition. As has been the case in all contested campaigns this year, the incumbents again prevailed.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) posted 57 percent in her battle against former Haley Administration cabinet secretary Catherine Templeton and non-profit corporation executive Bill Young. Polling had placed Rep. Mace well ahead of her opponents, but the question lingered as to whether she would exceed the majority vote threshold. Doing so easily, and with the Supreme Court not changing the 1st District in its ruling last month, Rep. Mace is now officially on her way to winning a third term in November.

In the Greenville-Spartanburg seat, Rep. William Timmons (R) also won re-election, turning back state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Greenville) with another close 52-48 percent victory margin, the same margin of his 2022 primary win.

The open 3rd District from which Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-Laurens) is retiring will head to a runoff election in two weeks. Pastor and National Guard veteran Mark Burns placed first and will face National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs, who has Gov. Henry McMaster’s endorsement. The pair finished within two points of each other and now advance to the June 25 election. The winner of the secondary election will take the seat in November.

OH-6 — The evening’s special general election was decided in the Republicans’ favor, but in a closer than expected finish against a Democratic candidate who had little in the way of resources. Ohio state Sen. Michael Rulli (R-Salem) defeated Democrat Michael Kripchak with a 55-45 percent margin.

The Rulli victory will bring the Republican Conference to 219 members with another special election, that in the CO-4 district, to be decided on June 25.

Once again, we see a Republican candidate slightly under-performing in a special election from a district that should have returned a victory in the much higher 50s. Rep-Elect Rulli and Kripchak will now advance to the regular general election. Rulli will again be favored and should win with a larger margin in November from a district that ex-President Trump will carry heavily.

June 11 Primary Preview: Part II

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 11, 2024

Primaries

As covered in yesterday’s column, four states and a special election are on the ballot today. We looked at the situations in Maine, Nevada, and North Dakota in the previous update.

Today, we concentrate on the two key South Carolina Republican US House primaries, as voters simultaneously will fill another US House vacancy in eastern Ohio.

Two-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

South Carolina — With no statewide race on the primary ballot, voters in the Charleston and Greenville-Spartanburg areas become tonight’s major focal points.

In the Charleston-anchored 1st Congressional District, a domain that was challenged as a racial gerrymander, but one that the US Supreme Court verified as a legitimate draw, we see two-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) fighting to win renomination.

Her main opponent is former Gov. Nikki Haley Administration official and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Catherine Templeton who is certainly a credible challenger. While Rep. Mace has former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, she was also one of the eight Republicans to vote to oust then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, meaning outside money is coming into the district to oppose her. Controversy also arose around the congresswoman when her entire DC staff resigned in protest of her management style.

While polling finds Mace well ahead of Templeton, South Carolina is a runoff state, so candidates must reach the 50 percent threshold to win a nomination. A third candidate, non-profit organization executive Bill Young, could play a role in forcing Rep. Mace into a runoff. If the two women run close, even a single-digit performance from Young could help create a secondary election.

South Carolina is also unique in that they employ only a two-week runoff schedule. Therefore, if a runoff occurs, the second election will be scheduled for June 25, leaving little time to run a major campaign.

So far this year, we have seen contested incumbents prevail in every situation. The same may occur for Rep. Mace tonight, but the question remains as to whether she can win outright.

Northwest on I-26 from Charleston at the other end of the state is the Greenville-Spartanburg-anchored 4th Congressional District. In 2022, Rep. William Timmons (R-Greenville) found himself attracting just over 52 percent against three opponents. His poor performance was largely due to adverse publicity coming from the exposure of an extramarital affair breaking shortly before that primary election. In 2022, Timmons did not have a Democratic opponent, so there was no further threat for him to overcome.

This year, Timmons arguably faces a much tougher primary opponent in state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Greenville). This is a one-on-one Republican primary race, so the nomination will be decided tonight.

Rep. Morgan is attacking Rep. Timmons from the political right, and he does have a base within the district. Timmons will likely prevail though the final result may be tighter than the congressman would hope.

Democrats did file a candidate this year. In the general election, tonight’s winner will face Spartanburg County Democratic chair Kathryn Harvey. In a 4th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+27, the seat will remain in the Republican column regardless of who claims the GOP nomination.

OH-6 — In the cycle’s 6th special election, tonight we see eastern Ohio state Sen. Michael Rulli (R-Salem) poised to replace resigned US Rep. Bill Johnson (R).

Sen. Rulli really won the election when he outdueled state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus 49-41 percent in the special Republican primary. The Democratic nominee, businessman Michael Kripchak, had raised only $22,000-plus through the May 22 pre-election campaign finance reporting period. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates OH-6 as R+31, meaning the election will be over early in the evening.

The Rulli victory will give the House Republicans 219 members as compared to the Democrats’ 213. There will be three remaining vacancies. One, the race to replace resigned Colorado Rep. Ken Buck (R), will be filled on June 25, concurrently with the state primary election.

The other two will be open until possibly a lame duck session. Rep. Donald Payne Jr.’s death leaves the 10th District of New Jersey vacant. He posthumously won the Democratic Party nomination for the regular term, and the local county committees will replace him as soon as the July 16 special primary concludes. It is clear the committee members will then nominate the individual who wins the special Democratic primary.

The remaining vacancy is the Wisconsin seat of resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R). Due to the date of his resignation, there will be no special election to replace him prior to the November 5th regular general election.

June 11 Primary Preview: Part I

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 10, 2024

Primaries

Four states and a special election are on tap for tomorrow, as voters in Nevada, Maine, North Dakota, South Carolina, and eastern Ohio decide some important primaries and fill another US House vacancy.

Today, we look at the races in Nevada, Maine, and North Dakota. Tomorrow, the two congressional races in South Carolina and the special election in Ohio’s 6th District.

Army veteran Sam Brown

Nevada — Republicans will choose their Senate nominee tomorrow night and we see conflicting final week polls. It appears that Afghan War veteran Sam Brown, the choice of the Republican Party establishment, should win, which is the prelude to what will become one of the most competitive Senate campaigns in the country. Before challenging Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), Brown must first top former Trump Administration Ambassador to Iceland and physician Jeff Gunter along with 10 other minor candidates.

Last week, Gunter released his internal Kaplan Strategies poll (May 30; 802 likely Nevada Republican primary voters; online) that found him leading Brown 31-30 percent. Noble Predictive Insights then published their early June survey results (June 4-5; 424 likely Nevada Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system and text) that posted Brown to a much different 50-15 percent whopping advantage. The latter poll is more reflective of previous research studies conducted for this race.

In the House, Republicans look to challenge three Las Vegas Democratic incumbents, all from politically marginal districts. In Rep. Dina Titus’ (D) 1st CD, the main Republican primary battle appears to be between 2022 nominee Mark Robertson and businessman Flemming Larsen.

In District 3, a total of seven Republicans are running with hopes of challenging Rep. Susie Lee (D). The race appears to be between electronic game company owner Marty O’Donnell and former state Treasurer Dan Schwartz.

In District 4, former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee looks to advance into the general election opposite four-term US Rep. Steven Horsford. All three races should be rated as Lean Democratic. When the House majority comes down to just a few seats, these districts will be important in determining which party will control the House in the next Congress.

Nevada’s lone Republican House member, 2nd District Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City), faces minor opposition tomorrow and only Independents and minor party candidates in the general election.

Maine — While the Pine Tree State could have a significant role in the presidential campaign because their congressional districts carry their own electoral vote, US House competition appears present in only one of Maine’s two CDs. While Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland) is secure in the southern 1st District, Republicans will make a play for northern District 2.

At this point, polling suggests that former President Donald Trump has possibly a 20-point lead in District 2, thus not only putting the statewide vote up for grabs in the national race but also exerting more pressure on three-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston). Tomorrow’s Republican primary is expected to yield a victory for state representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) over fellow state representative and actor Mike Soboleski (R-Phillips).

North Dakota — With Gov. Doug Burgum (R) choosing not to seek a third term, we see an open governor and at-large US House race adorning the political ballot. Three-term Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck) is leaving Congress in an attempt to succeed Gov. Burgum, and the move appears to be paying dividends. As a former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party, Armstrong won the official party endorsement in overwhelming fashion and faces Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller in tomorrow’s GOP primary.

Polling also gives Rep. Armstrong a big advantage. The most recent survey, from WPA Intelligence (May 20-22; 500 likely North Dakota Republican primary voters; live interview) sees Armstrong posting a huge 57-19 percent lead over Miller. It appears that tomorrow’s primary will launch Rep. Armstrong well on his way into the governor’s mansion.

In the open at-large House district, the eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite in the general election. The GOP race is a five-way affair. Two of the contenders appear to be the leading combatants, Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak, who has the Trump endorsement, and former state Rep. Rick Becker. Former Miss America Cara Mund is also in the race along with two minor candidates.

A pair of May polls found Fedorchak and Becker each leading a ballot test. Therefore, we could see an interesting finish tomorrow night, with most observers giving Fedorchak a slight advantage.