By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 8, 2026
Voters in a total of four states complete their primary voting tomorrow and several races are still too difficult to project just a day before the election. The June 9 primary states are Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina.
>Maine
The Maine ballot features a highly competitive Governor’s race in both primaries, a highly publicized Senate race that will become one of the top national campaigns in the general election, and a 2nd Congressional District that could prove to be the Republicans’ best conversion opportunity in the country.
For the Democrats, their crowded primary is very likely to produce a first-place finisher who is well below the 50 percent plateau. If so, the Ranked Choice Voting rounds will then begin. Polling throughout the year has favored former Maine Health Director Nirav Shah, but whether he can flourish in the RCV rounds is an unanswered question.
Dr. Shah’s principal opponents are Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, businessman Angus King III, son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), former state Senate President Troy Jackson, and ex-state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland).
The most recent poll comes from Survey USA (May 28-6-3; 484 likely Maine Democratic primary voters). The ballot test results find Dr. Shah again in first place but with a declining 25 percent. In second place is Jackson (20 percent), who has been the candidate showing the most late momentum, Pingree just a point behind at 19 percent, with King and Bellows trailing with 17 and 11 percent, respectively.
Survey USA also ran a Ranked Choice Voting test. At the end of their projected four rounds, it was Pingree topping Dr. Shah with a 52-48 percent margin. The first candidate eliminated in RCV round two was Bellows, who was the subject of national controversy early in the 2024 election when she denied a ballot position to President Trump. King was then projected to fall in round three, while Jackson was eliminated in round four but by just one point. Therefore, it appears this race is anyone’s game once the Ranked Choice rounds begin.
To refresh, instead of voting for one candidate, individuals rank all candidates in preference order. If no one receives 50 percent, the candidate with the smallest number of actual general election votes, Bellows according to the S-USA poll, is eliminated. Election officials then find the ballots that listed Bellows as the first choice. Then, only those ballots’ second choice selections are added to the aggregate vote. The process continues until one candidate receives majority support.
For the Republicans, the gubernatorial contest appears to be narrowing to a choice between former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles and businessman Jonathan Bush, nephew of former President George H.W. Bush and cousin to former President George W. Bush.
Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner, an oysterman, has attracted a great deal of national media attention of late and will likely do so throughout the general election campaign. The Susan Collins-Graham Platner contest will be one of the top national contests to determine the next Senate majority.
Tomorrow night, however, even though Gov. Janet Mills’ name remains on the Democratic ballot for the Senate, she suspended her campaign weeks ago when it was apparent that she could not overcome the Platner polling lead. Tomorrow’s primary election is now anti-climactic, but the general election will draw more than its share of national media attention.
The 2nd Congressional District is also of great interest. On the Republican side, two-term Gov. Paul LePage, who has again returned from Florida to run for office in Maine, is unopposed for the GOP nomination.
Democrats have an interesting primary that will likely move to the Ranked Choice rounds. The principal contenders are state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), State Auditor Matt Dunlap, and former congressional aide Jordan Wood. The Democratic outcome is uncertain. Sen. Baldacci should be favored, but he is further to the center than the Democratic base voter, thus potentially giving the more liberal Dunlap a chance to prevail.
For those Maine races forced into Ranked Choice rounds, we can expect a lengthy counting period to last several days and likely well into next week if not beyond.
Nevada
The Governor’s race is virtually locked. Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) will very likely face Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) in what will, again, be a tight statewide general election finish in the Silver State.
In the 2nd Congressional District from which GOP incumbent Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) is retiring, we see 12 candidates vying for the Republican nomination. State Conservation Secretary and ex-state Sen. James Settelmeyer appears to be the favorite. However, in such a large field and with only Settelmeyer and financial advisor David Flippo raising or self-funding significant money, one of those two will potentially win tomorrow night.
Democrats are raising significant funds, and despite the fact that we see a partisan lean of 53.8R – 40.5D (Dave’s Redistricting App), expect the Democrats to put this seat in play once one of their 11 candidates claims the nomination. Nevada has a plurality primary system, so we will see winners clinching tomorrow night.
North Dakota
Rep. Julie Fedorchak (R-Mandan) faces only minor opposition in tomorrow’s primary. For the Democrats, we see 2024 nominee Trygve Hammer returning for a rematch. In 2024, he lost to Fedorchak by a whopping 69-30 percent count. Expect a similar result in the 2026 re-match.
South Carolina
The open Republican battle to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R) is, like the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary, a multi-candidate affair where the outcome is still undetermined. It is conceivable that any combination of the five candidates could advance to the June 23 runoff election.
The candidates are: Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who holds the Trump and McMaster endorsements, Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of veteran Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), and businessman Rom Reddy.
Polling has been prevalent and, at one time or another, each has been in runoff position. It is clear that no one will claim the nomination tomorrow night. Rather, who qualifies for the runoff will be the key story of the night. The eventual Republican nominee should cruise in the general election.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) faces credible opposition in the person of businessman Mark Lynch and others, but the Senator should easily prevail. He will not join Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and John Cornyn (R-TX) as Republican incumbents who lose renomination.
In the House, the major open seat battle comes in Rep. Mace’s Charleston and Berkeley counties anchored 1st District where 10 candidates are fighting for the right to replace the three-term US House incumbent. Dr. Sam McCown and state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Daniel Island) appear to be the most likely pair to advance into a Republican runoff. The race outcome, however, is still uncertain.
One open seat where the result is certain comes in Rep. Norman’s 5th District located south of Charlotte, NC. In a safe Republican seat, state Sen. Wes Climer (R-Rock Hill) is unopposed in the GOP primary. He will be the next Congressman from this South Carolina congressional district.