Category Archives: Primary

Primary Results:
Alaska, Florida, Wyoming

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Primary Results

Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola (D)

Alaska: Peltola, Begich Finish 1, 2 — As expected, at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) finished first in the top-four Alaska jungle primary, but the unanswered question was whether businessman Nick Begich III or Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, the choice of the Republican establishment and former President Donald Trump, would become her prime competitor. While Rep. Peltola is knocking on the door of the majority support threshold as ballots continue to be counted, it was Begich who secured second place, while Dahlstrom finished almost seven points behind him and 30 points behind the congresswoman.

The next few days of jockeying will be interesting. The Republicans will have their best chance of unseating Rep. Peltola if they unite behind one candidate, and it appears their only choice will be Begich. If they remain divided among two major GOP contenders, then the outcome will be the same as we’ve seen before, which is that Rep. Peltola will continue representing the most Republican congressional district in the country to elect a Democrat to the House.

Florida: Scott Romps; No Major Upsets — The Florida primary unfolded as expected. Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) were easy winners in their respective primaries. Sen. Scott posted over 84 percent in the Republican primary, while Mucarsel-Powell captured just over two-thirds of the Democratic vote.

Sen. Scott and Mucarsel-Powell will now advance to the general election where the incumbent is favored in a state where the Republican registered voter factor exceeds its Democratic counterparts by more than 1 million individuals.

In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) was again an easy winner, exceeding 72 percent of the vote over Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock who moved into the district to challenge the congressman. Gaetz will now advance into the general election where he becomes a prohibitive favorite in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+38.

In the Atlantic coastal 8th District, as expected, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos topped 72 percent of the vote to claim the Republican nomination. He will replace retiring Congressman Bill Posey (R-Rockledge) who announced that he would not seek re-election just before the candidate filing deadline expired. Haridopolos now becomes a sure winner in the general election.

In a St. Petersburg-anchored congressional district that can become competitive, marketing consultant Whitney Fox, as expected, easily won the Democratic primary and advances into the general election to oppose freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg). The congresswoman is favored, but the district electorate is relatively close. The Republican general election vote is likely to land in the low to mid-50s.

Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa), who Trump targeted for defeat before he decided to endorse her when no major GOP competition emerged, also topped 72 percent in last night’s GOP primary. Hillsborough County Commissioner Patricia Kemp, who was unopposed in the Democratic primary, will now become Rep. Lee’s November opponent. Since Kemp has under-performed on the fundraising circuit, Rep. Lee is viewed as a clear November favorite in central Florida’s most competitive seat.

Veteran Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) faced a credible Republican primary opponent, but the congressman easily prevailed with 61 percent voter preference. The primary should prove to be Rep. Buchanan’s most formidable challenge in a 16th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+13.

In South Florida, we saw a minor upset as Miami-Dade County School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller defeated former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey with a 54 percent vote total. She now will face two-term Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) in what appears to be a dead-even district on paper demographically, but with an electorate that tends to vote more conservatively.

Wyoming: Barrasso, Hageman Renominated — As predicted, Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso (R) and at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) were easily renominated with landslide Republican primary victories last night. Sen. Barrasso’s 68 percent victory at this writing and Rep. Hageman scoring 81 percent of the primary vote will send both office holders to the general election in what promises to be Donald Trump’s strongest state in the country.

Primary Results: Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Primary Results

Overview: Four States and One CD — Voters in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin nominated candidates yesterday while the Harris County, Texas Democratic Party chose a general election nominee to replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston). Little in the way of competition was found in Connecticut and Vermont, meaning all of the incumbents easily advanced into the general election.

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

• Minnesota: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) captured over 90 percent of the vote in her Democratic primary and is a heavy favorite to defeat the new Republican nominee, former NBA professional basketball player Royce White, who defeated banker Joe Fraser and six other contenders to claim his party’s nomination.

After 2nd District Republican Taylor Rahm dropped his congressional bid to join the Trump campaign staff, it became evident that attorney Joe Teirab would be the Republican to challenge Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) in what could become a competitive general election.

Though the safely Democratic 3rd District was open because Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Plymouth) chose not to seek re-election, state Sen. Kelly Morrison (D-Deephaven) surprisingly found herself unopposed in the party primary. She will be a strong favorite to defeat Republican former judge and legislator Tad Jude in the general election.

Though facing credible opposition, polling was projecting that three-term Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) would score a big victory. Her 56 percent vote total was certainly enough to clinch a comfortable win but not as wide as the pre-election polling had projected. She will easily win the general election to secure a fourth two-year term.

In the expansive western state 7th District, Rep. Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal), who lost the official party endorsement at the Republican state convention earlier in the year, rebounded to score a primary win that was just short of a 2:1 drubbing over businessman Steve Boyd. Fishbach will easily win her third term in November.

• Wisconsin: With Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) running unopposed in the Democratic primary, Republican businessman pounded his two minor GOP opponents to post an 87 percent victory percentage. Sen. Baldwin is the clear favorite to win the general election, but Hovde will be able to keep pace in advertising with his strong self-funded media campaign.

In the competitive 3rd Congressional District, business owner Rebecca Cooke, who had strong outside support, recorded large percentages in the rural areas to overcome state Rep. Katrina Shankland’s (D-Steven’s Point) overwhelming strength in Portage County to score a 49-42 percent Democratic primary victory. Cooke will now face freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) in what should be a hotly contested general election.

In the Green Bay anchored 8th CD, businessman Tony Wied, with an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, slipped past former state Senate President Roger Roth and state Sen. Andre Jacque (R-Green Bay) to clinch the open Republican nomination and become the heavy favorite to win the general election in November. Assuming his success, Wied will succeed resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R) in the seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+20.

• TX-18: Battling several prominent candidates before the 88 Harris County Democratic Party convention delegates, former two-term Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner was chosen as the party standard bearer in the general election to replace the late US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston).

Turner and former city councilwoman, ex-US Senate candidate, and previous congressional contender Amanda Edwards tied on the first ballot, necessitating a runoff vote because the deadlock prevented either from securing majority support. Turner then won the runoff vote. He proceeds into the general election as a prohibitive favorite opposite Republican nominee Lana Centonze.

Primaries in Four States Today; Conflicting Polls in Michigan;
Casey Up Double Digits;
New Jersey’s Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Primaries

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) is expected to record a substantial primary victory today. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Voting Today: Four States and One CD — Voters in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin will vote today while the Harris County, Texas Democratic Party members are choosing a general election nominee to replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston).

The primaries will be quiet affairs in Connecticut and Vermont as all incumbents are running either unopposed or against minor opposition. Minnesota US Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) and Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal) face primary opposition that looked interesting for a time, but now both incumbents are expected to record substantial victories.

The WI-8 open seat Republican primary will attract the most attention in the Badger State. There former state Senate President Roger Roth, state Sen Andre Jacque (R-Green Bay), and businessman Tony Wied are vying for the party nomination. The winner will very likely succeed resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R).

The Democrats have a contested primary in the state’s western 3rd District where state Rep. Katrina Shankland (D-Stevens Point) and business owner Rebecca Cooke are vying for the opportunity to challenge freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien).

Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner appears to be the favorite to come through the party nomination convention as the congressional nominee, though several state Representatives and Houston City council members are also vying for support from the 88 voting members.

Senate

Michigan: Conflicting Polls — Two surveys were released in the past three days, and while both find Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the margin between the two studies is highly inconsistent. The New York Times/Siena College (Aug. 5-8; 619 likely Michigan voters) found Rep. Slotkin leading 46-43 percent, which is in line with most other polls conducted of the race.

The Bullfinch Group, however, also tested the Michigan electorate in early August (polling for the Independent Center; part of a three swing state polling series; Aug. 8-11; 500 registered Michigan voters; online) and sees Rep. Slotkin posting a much larger 48-38 percent lead. The error factor in the latter poll, with a small online sample size, is much greater than the NYT/Siena College study, so it is likely that this survey is an anomaly.

Pennsylvania: Casey Up Double Digits in Two Surveys — A pair of research studies were also released in the Keystone State and produced similar results, the best so far for Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). As in Michigan, the two were from the New York Times/Siena College (Aug. 6-8; 693 likely Pennsylvania voters) and the Bullfinch Group (polling for the Independent Center; part of a three swing state polling series; Aug. 8-11; 500 registered Michigan voters; online).

The NYT/Siena ballot test projected Sen. Casey’s lead to be a whopping 51-37 percent over former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R). Bullfinch found an almost identical result, recording the senator’s advantage at 51-39 percent over challenger McCormick. This was always going to be a tough race for Republicans, and now the McCormick campaign must make a serious move to tighten the race to ensure the candidate is positioned to potentially score an upset victory. Currently, Sen. Casey appears to be in the driver’s seat as he strives to clinch a fourth term.

Governor

New Jersey: Rep. Sherrill Preparing Statewide Run — As has long been anticipated, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) yesterday signaled that she will launch a 2025 campaign for governor soon after the November 2024 general election. Also expected to run is US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff). Already announced are Democratic mayors Ras Baraka (Newark), Steve Fulop (Jersey City), and Sean Spiller (Montclair), in addition to former state Senate President Steve Sweeney.

The Republicans will feature 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield), former state Senator Ed Durr, and radio talk show host Bill Spadea. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, hence the large forming candidate field especially on the Democratic side. This will be an intense gubernatorial contest.

Swing State Seesaw; Hawaii’s Election Results; New Leader in Delaware Governor’s Race, While North Carolina Stays Consistent

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 12, 2024

President

Polling: Swing State Seesaw — The presidential race continues to behave like a seesaw with regard to cumulative polling data. The most recent New York Times/Siena College polling series finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by identical 50-46 percent counts in the critical Great Lakes states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from their results released Aug. 10.

Yet, the Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage released their cumulative data in the same states on Aug. 9. Trafalgar found Trump leading 46-44 percent in Pennsylvania, while IA sees Trump with a 49-48 percent edge in Wisconsin. The Insider Advantage Michigan result, Harris leading 49-47 percent, confirmed the NYT/Siena Wolverine State conclusion. With the race leaders varying literally by the day, at this point the contest appears to be a dead heat.

Primary Results

Hawaii: Electorate Voted Saturday — There was not a great deal of competition in Saturday’s Aloha State primary. Sen. Mazie Hirono (D), on the ballot seeking a third term was renominated with a landslide 90.5 percent of the Democratic primary vote. She will now face former state representative and ex-US Senate nominee Bob McDermott, who captured 52 percent of the vote in a six-way Republican primary. In 2022, McDermott lost to Sen. Brian Schatz (D), 69-25 percent. Another similar outcome is forecast for his race against Sen. Hirono. The only interesting Hawaii primary political news is the state House Speaker, Scott Saiki (D-Downtown Honolulu), losing his bid for renomination to state Board of Education member Kim Coco Iwamoto.

Governor

Delaware: New Polling Leader — According to a Concord Public Opinion Partners survey (conducted for the Education Reform Now Advocacy organization; Aug. 2-4; 453 registered Delaware voters; live interview & text), the negative publicity surrounding Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long’s alleged campaign finance violations in not disclosing money paid to her husband has hurt her bid for governor.

The Concord poll finds New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with a 30-23 percent spread as the two battle to win the Sept. 10 primary election. The winner will become the clear favorite to claim the general election in November. Gov. John Carney (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Instead, he is running for mayor of Wilmington, the small state’s largest city.

North Carolina: AG Stein (D) Opening Consistent Lead — The Cygnal polling organization released a statewide Tar Heel State survey, and their data finds Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson falling further behind Attorney General Josh Stein (D) in their race to succeed term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper (D). The poll (Aug. 4-5; 600 likely North Carolina general election voters) finds AG Stein topping Robinson, 43-38 percent, even though all other Republicans are leading.

In the presidential race, former President Trump runs ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, 47-44 percent. In the open attorney’s general contest, GOP Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) holds a 42-38 percent advantage over Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte). And, in a race for state Supreme Court, the Republican contender, Jefferson Griffin, posts a 40-37 percent edge over Democrat Allison Riggs.

Debatable Debates; Montana’s Sheehy Still Leads; Shah Declared Dem Winner in AZ-1; Rivet Trailing in MI-8

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 9, 2024

President

Debates: Conflicting Messages — We are again seeing conflicting statements about who is debating when and where. Former President Donald Trump announced yesterday that there will be three debates, on Sept. 4 (Fox News), 10 (NBC News), and 25 (ABC News). Vice President Kamala Harris indicated that she is pleased that “… Donald Trump has finally committed to debating me on Sept. 10.”

It is unlikely that Harris will appear on Fox News, and there is a story indicating the Trump lawyers have told the former president that he cannot debate on ABC because they are involved in an active lawsuit against the network. Therefore, the only common ground appears to be on Sept. 10, meaning NBC News’ reporters will moderate.

Senate

Montana: First Harris Poll; Sheehy Still Leads — The first Montana poll featuring Vice President Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee has been released. Emerson College tested the Big Sky electorate (polling for The Hill Newspaper; Aug. 5-6; 1,000 likely Montana general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) and found that former President Trump’s lead in the state has remained relatively consistent when pitted against Harris versus President Joe Biden.

The new numbers project Trump leading VP Harris, 55-40 percent. The Senate pattern is a familiar one found here and in other competitive states. That is, the Republican candidate running substantially behind Trump’s standing. In this case, however, retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) continues to forge a small lead over Sen. Jon Tester (D).

The ballot test for the Montana Senate campaign found Sheehy posting a slight 48-46 percent edge over the three-term Democratic incumbent. With the Trump margin expected to grow as the campaign matures, Sheehy’s position should improve, as well. Therefore, this Senate race has strong potential to flip from D to R. Doing so would clinch an outright majority in the new Senate. Coupled with West Virginia, which is a sure flip, a Montana victory would give the GOP at least 51 seats.

House

AZ-1: Shah Declared Dem Winner — As the Arizona ballot verification and counting process slowly continues, another race has been officially called. Physician and former state Rep. Amish Shah (D), who led throughout the counting process, has defeated former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andre Cherni and ex-television journalist Marlene Galan-Woods to claim the party nomination.

Dr. Shah only captured 23.5 percent of the vote in the crowded field, but the total was enough to score a plurality victory. Dr. Shah finished two percentage points ahead of both Cherni and Galan-Woods. The latter two were separated by only 106 votes.

The count is still not final, but Dr. Shah’s margin over his two closest competitors is larger than the number of ballots that remain uncounted. Therefore, Dr. Shah will advance into the general election to wage a competitive battle against veteran Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in a district that only leans Republican.

MI-8: Candidate Released Poll Showing Her Trailing — A rather surprising poll was released from a new Democratic congressional nominee. State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City), who won the open 8th District Democratic primary with 53.3 percent of the vote, just released her internal Global Strategy Group poll (July 29-Aug. 1; 500 likely MI-8 voters; live interview & online) that shows her trailing new Republican nominee Paul Junge, 44-45 percent.

Releasing data that shows the principal trailing is curious considering that Democratic primary turnout was seven percentage points (58.5 percent) higher than the Republican participation factor. This number appears even stronger when compared with the statewide turnout partisan division. In the overall Michigan primary, the Democratic turnout advantage only reached 51.5 percent.

The argument for releasing the virtual dead heat data was that Junge, a former news anchorman and two-time Republican nominee, has better name identification throughout the district than Sen. Rivet. While this is a valid point, the turnout favoring Rivet’s party to a large degree suggests that her standing should be stronger.

How the Incumbents Fell

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 8, 2024

Incumbents

Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) gives a controversial, fiery speech after losing her primary.

Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) in losing her primary Tuesday night became the third incumbent during this campaign year to fall to an intra-party challenger and similarities are present in each of the situations.

In addition to Rep. Bush, Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Bob Good (R-VA) also lost their primary elections. All three were members of the most extreme caucuses within their respective party conferences. Reps. Bush and Bowman were members of the Socialist Democrat “Squad” ad hoc coalition, while Rep. Good was chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus.

Opposition resources were key factors in each race, and most of the funding to defeat the incumbents came from outside groups. In fact, the Bowman and Bush races became the most expensive primaries in campaign history. In both of these cases, the United Democracy Project, the political arm for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), was the big spender.

In each race, the UDP used the identical tactic, attacking the incumbent for not being a strong enough supporter of President Biden’s legislative initiatives. Though the reason for the UDP’s involvement was because of Reps. Bush and Bowman’s anti-Israel sentiments and public comments, that particular issue was never even portrayed in a campaign ad.

While the message was geared to the two incumbents opposing the Biden agenda in their heavily Democratic districts, the designed negative image stuck because the challengers’ coalitions spent massive amounts of advertising dollars in the respective media markets.

The combined total of reported outside spending, according to the Open Secrets organization, was just over $7 million against Bush as compared to $2 million in support. Once the final reports are published the outside spending number will rise to the $10 million range.

These figures are in addition to the individual campaign figures. While Rep. Bush raised $2.9 million for her campaign according to the pre-primary campaign finance disclosure report, former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell raised over $4.7 million for his campaign committee. Therefore, the resource imbalance was clearly in the challenger’s favor.

We see a similar pattern in the other races. The United Democracy Project used the similar tactic of attacking the incumbent, in this case Rep. Bowman, as being weak in supporting the Biden Administration’s economic objectives, particularly in relation to the infrastructure spending legislation. Both he and Rep. Bush opposed the various funding packages because they said the legislation did not go far enough in supporting the inner city constituencies of their districts.

In the Bowman race, just about $14 million was spent from outside sources, and the imbalance here was even more substantial in the challenger’s, Westchester County Executive George Latimer, favor. The outside dollars broke 12:2 against Rep. Bowman, and the Latimer campaign outraised Rep. Bowman’s political effort by more than $1 million.

The campaign to defeat Republican Rep. Good was obviously different. Good was one of the House leaders that led the effort to oust then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, so the outside coalition came largely from organizations loyal to the ex-Speaker, and with his assistance.

Here we see smaller spending totals, but the imbalance still favored challenger John McGuire, a state senator. The Open Secrets tally finds Rep. Good on the short end of a 2:1 outside spending ratio, with the pro-McGuire/anti-Good coalition spending just under $4 million and the pro-Good Super PACs spending just under half that amount.

One other key to defeating the incumbents was recruiting strong challengers. Wesley Bell, who defeated Rep. Bush, was a St. Louis County prosecutor. He was originally planning to become a US Senate candidate against Sen. Josh Hawley (R), but instead saw the opportunity to run for the House against Rep. Bush.

George Latimer is the Westchester County Executive. Prior to his service in local government, Latimer was elected to the New York State Senate and Assembly. Likewise in Virginia, McGuire was an elected veteran of both Virginia legislative chambers.

The combination of strong challenger candidates and huge resource advantages both inside the campaign and most particularly from outside sources, along with crafting strong messages against an extreme incumbent were the key components for all three challenge efforts to achieve success.

Next week in Minnesota, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) faces the Democratic voters. No such result is expected here since the outside money did not materialize. Though she only won renomination by two percentage points in 2022, this year’s campaign did not develop. Therefore, we saw no major outside spending commitment, her fundraising is strong, and polling suggests that she will win easily next Tuesday.

In a year when it appears incumbent defeats in the general election will again be few and far between, these three primary challenge victories will prove a significant part of the 2024 election cycle’s post-election analysis.

Missouri’s Cori Bush Out in Primary; Other Primary Results From Kansas, Washington, Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Primary Results

Missouri Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis)

Missouri: Rep. Bush Unseated — In an expensive race where the incumbent was heavily outspent, former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell denied two-term Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) renomination by just over 6,800 votes. Rep. Bush is the third incumbent to lose to an intra-party challenger, joining Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Bob Good (R-VA) as defeated incumbents. Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL) also lost his bid for renomination, but that race was an incumbent pairing due to a new redistricting map.

In the open 3rd District, in a race that winnowed down to two former state senators vying to replace retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth), Bob Onder, armed with an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, saw a late vote surge propel him over Kurt Schaefer for a Republican nomination win, which is tantamount to winning the November election.

In the open governor’s race, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe defeated state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring) and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft in a close three-way result. Kehoe advances into the general election as the favorite against state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (D-Springfield). Gov. Mike Parson (R), who endorsed Lt. Gov. Kehoe, was ineligible to seek a third term.

Kansas: Schmidt Clinches GOP Primary — In Kansas’ open 2nd District, former Attorney General and ex-Republican gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt easily won the open Republican nomination. Schmidt was topping the 53 percent mark in a field of five candidates. The former statewide official is now a clear favorite to win the general election and keep the seat in the Republican column.

For the Democrats, former Rep. Nancy Boyda won a close primary with just over 51 percent of the vote in her political comeback attempt. Advancing to the general election, Boyda will be a big underdog to Schmidt in a 2nd District that is much different than the seat she represented for one term 16 years ago. Two-term Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) chose not to seek re-election.

Washington: Rep. Newhouse Trails in Jungle Primary — The Washington jungle primary featured a full slate of races. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) captured first place in the Senate race, with 58 percent at this writing. She will face Republican physician Raul Garcia in the general election. Sen. Cantwell is now a prohibitive favorite to capture a fifth term.

The competitive House races find five-term Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) fighting to finish second in the jungle primary and advance to the general election against retired NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler (R), who was one of two candidates who former President Donald Trump endorsed.

In the state’s southwestern District 3, Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) placed first over technology company executive Joe Kent (R), the man she upset in the general election from two years ago. While she captured just over 10,000 votes compared to Kent, the combined Republican turnout was almost 5,000 votes larger than the Democratic participation figure. Therefore, we can surmise that the Perez-Kent re-match will again end in close fashion, just as in 2022.

In the open 5th District, Spokane County Treasurer Mike Baumgartner (R), who had the backing of most conservative activists, placed first in the crowded jungle primary and will face Democrat Carmela Conroy, the Spokane County Democratic chair, in the general election. Because he drew a Democratic opponent in the general election in this safely Republican seat, Baumgartner is now the clear favorite to succeed retiring Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane).

In the open 6th, with candidates vying to succeed retiring six-term Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor), it appears that two state senators, Emily Randall (D-Bremerton) and Drew MacEwen (R-Union) will advance into the general election. State Land Commissioner Hilary Franz (D) lies about 5,500 votes behind MacEwen. With a large percentage of the vote left unreceived and uncounted, this race is not yet over, but the early numbers suggest the order will not change.

In the governor’s race, Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) easily outpaced former Congressman Dave Reichert (R), but both will advance to the general election. With Democrats comprising 56 percent of the early turnout figure, Ferguson will be difficult to defeat in the November election especially with Vice President Kamala Harris likely to record a big Washington state win over former President Trump.

Michigan: No Surprises — In the open Senate race, both Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) won landslide victories in their respective primaries. A tight general election is expected between these two top performing candidates.

The House races concluded as expected.

In what is sure to be a toss-up general election campaign, both former state senators Tom Barrett (R) and Curtis Hertel (D) were unopposed for their respective party nominations. The November battle will determine Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Lansing) successor.

In the competitive 8th District, as expected state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and former news anchor and two-time congressional nominee Paul Junge (R) won their respective primaries. Both the 7th and 8th districts will carry toss-up ratings into the general election. Overall Democratic turnout in the 8th CD was higher than the Republican participation rate which is a good sign for Rivet especially because, at this writing, GOP statewide turnout is higher than the Democratic number.

In the competitive 10th District, we will see a rematch between former judge and Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), who easily topped a crowded Democratic field, and freshman Rep. John James (R-Fountain Hills). In District 13, freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) turned back two Democratic challengers to virtually clinch a second term.