Category Archives: Presidential campaign

Catholic Voter Survey Results Show Trump Ahead; Michigan Senate Race Heats Up; Rep. Bishop in Tight Georgia Race; Conflicting CA-49 Data

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump holds a large swing state lead according to a Catholic voter survey.

Catholic Voter Survey: Voters Leaning Toward Trump — The National Catholic Reporter commissioned a voter survey in seven swing states, and particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin, former President Donald Trump has opened a large lead: a dozen points in Michigan and 18 in Wisconsin.

Looking at the seven states as a whole, Trump holds a 50-45 percent advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris within the Catholic sample. The survey was conducted by Mercury Analytics (Oct. 3-8; 1,172 Catholic voters in AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA and WI; online). Harris, however, does well with black (77 percent support) and Hispanic (67 percent support) Catholics within this sampling universe. Trump dominates among white voters with a 16 percent advantage.

Interestingly, the NCR analysis indicated that the Catholic respondents, “were more likely to say they support their preferred candidate for reasons that go against [Catholic] church teaching, with Trump supporters favoring his anti-[illegal] immigration policies and Harris voters backing her views on reproductive rights.”

In the swing states, the largest Catholic percentage of the state population is in Wisconsin (25 percent) and Nevada (25 percent), with Pennsylvania closely following (24 percent). Arizona (21 percent) and Michigan (18 percent) are next, while Georgia (nine percent) and North Carolina (nine percent) lag behind.

Senate

Michigan: Republicans Up Investment — The Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) firms partnered on a Michigan voter poll for AARP (Oct. 2-8; 600 likely Michigan voters from a universe of 1,382 registered Michigan voters; live interview and text) and the results project that Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) holds a 49-46 percent edge over former Rep. Mike Rogers (R). The presidential vote, as a point of reference, was tied a 46 percent apiece between Harris and Trump.

The results of this and other similar polls were enough to convince the Senate Leadership Fund to spend an additional $10.5 million in media time. The new expenditure brings the SLF entire investment to $33 million. It appears the three Senate races in which Republicans see recent positive movement are Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

House

GA-2: Rep. Bishop (D) in Surprising Close Race — Georgia Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) was first elected to Congress in 1992 and has rarely had a close election. A newly released survey from the co/efficient polling firm (Oct. 3-4; 847 likely GA-2 voters; live interview & text) for Republican nominee Wayne Johnson finds the challenger trailing Rep. Bishop by just three percentage points, 45-42 percent. This is a race that had not been considered competitive and has drawn little in the way of national attention.

Georgia’s 2nd District carries a partisan rating of D+4, according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Down Ballot political blog ranks GA-2 as the 36th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Though the seat had not been considered in play, it will now be watched for further developments. Whether outside groups from either side begin spending late money here is a point to be observed.

CA-49: Conflicting Data — As recently as last week, a Survey USA poll of California’s coastal 49th District (Oct. 2-6; 617 likely CA-49 voters) found that three-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) was comfortably ahead of Republican Matt Gunderson by a 12-point margin, 53-41 percent. Now, the National Republican Congressional Committee has countered with their 1892 organization survey that produces a much different result.

According to the 1892 data (Oct. 5-8; 400 likely CA-49 voters), the gap separating the two candidates is only one point, 46-45 percent, in Rep. Levin’s favor. The nature of this district suggests a close Democratic edge (FiveThirtyEight: D+5), so chances are that the wide range of these two polls likely lands in the middle. Therefore, Rep. Levin must still be viewed as residing in the favorite’s position.

The “Tell Trifecta”

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

As the presidential map continues to evolve, a set of three states has become the most important indicator toward predicting a winner: Should former President Donald Trump carry North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania when ballot counting begins on Nov.5, he will win the presidency because the other battleground states simply won’t matter. This “Tell Trifecta” of North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania — assuming that the 24 states (North Carolina is the 25th) and the 2nd District of Maine all again vote for Trump as they have twice done — would give him exactly the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency.

Should Vice President Kamala Harris break through to claim either North Carolina or Georgia, she will almost assuredly win the national office. Pennsylvania is a key prize, but both candidates have other options to cobble together a 270-vote coalition without winning the Keystone State. Regarding North Carolina, however, the path for Trump would become untenable should he fail to carry the Tar Heel State.

Notice that two of the “tell trifecta” states are affected by the current hurricane that has decimated parts of the southeast. That being the case, is the state of Florida giving us a clue as to what might happen regarding a post-hurricane bounce for one of the candidates?

The New York Times/Siena College new Florida poll (subscriber only) is now in the public domain, and it delivers an astonishing return. FYI, NYT/Siena College ranks 1st on the FiveThirtyEight data organization pollster review chart, from 282 active polling entities. Therefore, it is fair to say that NYT/Siena is the country’s top pollster.

In their just released Florida poll (Sept. 29-Oct. 6; 622 likely Florida voters; live interview), NYT/Siena suddenly finds Trump breaking away from the single-digit leads he has been posting.

In this latest Sunshine State survey, the Trump lead, post hurricane, has expanded to 13 percentage points, 53-40 percent, with the two minor candidates, Libertarian Party leader Chase Oliver and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, included on the ballot. Prior to this poll, Trump had averaged a lead of only 3.5 percentage points from 11 polls conducted in September and early October.

With data we now can examine, it is difficult to explain the reason for the Florida surge. Thus, the timing suggests hurricane management might have something to do with the new result, but nothing is certain at this point.

Looking at the “tell trifecta,” we see nothing yet developing like the NYT/Siena Florida surge. Trump, however, has posted consistent, but small, leads in North Carolina since a published poll last found Harris with a slight advantage (AtlasIntel; Sept. 20-25; Harris +2). Since Sept. 25, Trump has commanded a slight edge over Harris of 1.5 percentage points from nine polls.

Also, since Sept. 25, in Pennsylvania, Trump and Harris are running about even, with Trump just slightly ahead on the cumulative total through nine individual polls.

Turning to Georgia, we see a similar pattern as has developed in North Carolina. Since Sept. 24, Trump has developed an average lead of 1.5 percentage points over seven polls conducted from that date to the present time.

Therefore, is this sudden surge in Florida — as the top-rated pollster in the country, New York Times/Siena College detects — a major outlier or the start of a significant upward trend for former President Trump?

Time will of course tell, but his performance in the “Tell Trifecta” is certainly worth monitoring. Today, however, the three states all look to be trending toward Trump, which would mean a stunning comeback victory for the former president should the present pattern continue or improve.

Polling Series – Still Anybody’s Game; However, Nevada, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin are Most Critical

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024

Swing States

British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies released the results of their latest US presidential battleground state polling series for the United Kingdom’s Telegraph publication. The results clearly indicate that the race, with just under a month until election day, is still very much up for grabs.

The series covered nine states, including the domains virtually everyone considers as battlegrounds: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The pollsters then added two more that are likely to break for one party or the other with relatively substantial margins: Florida is going to vote for Republican former President Donald Trump, while Minnesota will remain safely in the Democratic column for Vice President Kamala Harris.

The polls were conducted during the Sept. 27-Oct. 2 period, and the sample sizes ranged from a low of 514 respondents in Nevada to a high of 5,686 who participated in Pennsylvania. In the nine states, a total of 18,875 individuals responded to the online poll questions.

Counting Florida and Minnesota in the respective Republican and Democratic columns, the seven battlegrounds all fell into a range of four points, from +2 to -2. Trump led in North Carolina (+2) and Arizona (+1). Harris held the slightest of edges in four states: Michigan (+2), Nevada (+1), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+1). The pair drew dead even in Georgia.

The bottom line is that all of the battlegrounds, according to this data and most other, are in toss-up status and each of the deciding states could still fall to either candidate.

Looking ahead, the most important domain on the current board appears to be North Carolina. The Tar Heel State is a must win for Trump. If Harris wins this state, she will likely claim the national election.

Conversely, if Trump were to hold North Carolina, win Georgia and Pennsylvania, all of which is highly possible, he would clinch the election. Keeping North Carolina in his category and taking both Georgia and Pennsylvania, and assuming the other 24 states and the 2nd District of Maine that all voted for him twice remain in his camp for the 2024 election, means Trump would convert the 35 electoral votes he needs to clinch the presidency.

Should Harris break through in either North Carolina or Georgia, she would be virtually assured of national victory.

Previously, we reported on a Trump under-poll pattern in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. There we saw either a significant understatement of Trump’s support in the Silver, Keystone, and Badger States, or a surge for him in the final month of the campaign.

In any event, his actual performance in each of these states in 2020 was better than what was indicated in July through October polling by a margin of 2.8 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and 3.7 points in Nevada. Trump outperformed his Wisconsin polling by an even larger 5.93 percent clip.

There is no guarantee that the same 2020 pattern in these states will again occur, but if it does, the three states would cumulatively deliver the 35 electoral votes (NV 6; PA 19; WI 10) that Trump needs to reclaim the White House. Therefore, the Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin path is one of the few Trump winning scenarios that would yield a national victory without including the state of Georgia.

Basically, the Redfield and Wilton research again shows that both candidates have a virtually equal chance of winning the November election and will do so with a combination of several of these critical swing domains discussed above.

How the Country has Changed

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024

President

An individual named Alex Seitz-Weld on X (a national politics reporter for NBC News) has brought forth an interesting chart to show just how much the country has changed politically over the course of time.

The chart is simply an Electoral College map of the 1976 presidential election (above), which depicts a very different voting pattern compared to what may be unfolding this year. Basically, the changes show an almost complete political reversal.

It may be surprising to see that today’s solid red South went wholly Democrat, for favorite son Jimmy Carter, in the 1976 election. It wasn’t until the 1980 election when the South began to turn toward Republicans and has since not retreated from that voting pattern. Even more surprising, today’s solid blue Pacific Northwest — California, Oregon, and Washington — all voted Republican for then-President Gerald Ford 48 years ago.

In fact, the entire west, from the region’s eastern-most states of North Dakota through Oklahoma, and all domains between there and the Pacific Ocean, voted Republican for then-President Ford. Also in that year, modern day rock-ribbed red Texas went Democrat for Carter.

In all, a majority of states, 28, have changed their ideological positions from the tight presidential election of 1976 where the Democrats carried only 23 states, but with domains large enough to give Carter a 297 to 240 Electoral College victory. A lone elector from Washington cast the 538th Electoral College vote for Ronald Reagan.

Many of the states’ ideological changes proved long lasting. As mentioned, though California, Oregon, and Washington voted Republican in ’76, we now see those three states forming at the very least a major part of the Democrats’ Electoral College partisan base. Other states in this orbit are Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Vermont.

Conversely, the following states, which are now base Republican, previously voted Democratic in the 1976 election: Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia. Four other states, Florida, Iowa, Montana, and Ohio, are still competitive in certain situations, but are consistently moving toward the Republicans.

Continuing to categorize the changes, states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin that are behaving like swing states today generally favored one side or the other in previous political times.

The Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia electorates were generally Republican, while voters in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin typically aligned with Democrat candidates.

Other states have remained base votes for one party or the other over a sustained course of time. For the Democrats, their most loyal domains are Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island.

The most time-proven loyal Republican electorates are found in the states of Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. Yet, all of these base Democrat and Republican states have elected politicians of the opposite party during the 48-year span.

In conclusion, it appears that the old saying, “the more things change, the more they stay the same,” doesn’t quite apply to American elections. For most places, political transformation over the course of time has occurred. It remains to be seen what underpinnings of change may come from the impending 2024 election.

VP Harris Holds Slight Edge in Nevada; Balance of Senate Tested; Senate Money in Maryland; Examining California’s Key Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 27, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Nevada: New Polling Data Tracking with 2020 Result — Noble Predictive Insights tested the Nevada electorate in reference to the presidential campaign and finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by only a percentage point, 48-47 percent.

Looking at the geographic division in the Noble poll and comparing it to Gov. Joe Lombardo’s (R) victorious 2022 votes received from Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno), and the rural Nevada areas, the Trump figures are equivalent to Lombardo’s performance in Clark and Washoe. It is the rural areas where Trump will need to slightly improve if he is to carry the state.

While he will outpace Harris by better than 2:1 in this region, Trump’s 2020 performance in the rural areas was a point behind Lombardo’s 2022 total. Considering Trump lost to then candidate Joe Biden by 2.3 percentage points here in 2020, the former president will need to improve slightly upon Lombardo’s numbers in all regions, but especially in the rural areas, if he is to compensate for his previous deficit.

Senate

FiveThirtyEight: Releases New Senate Mean Average Data — The FiveThirtyEight data organization released new mean averages for all the competitive Senate races and, for the most part, the numbers are consistent with averages publicized on other platforms.

While Democrats have relatively small but consistent leads in most of the competitive states, the Republican average is stronger (+3) in Montana, where a Tim Sheehy (R) victory over Sen. Jon Tester (D) would likely clinch an outright GOP Senate majority. The race that appears to be getting closer is in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) average advantage has dropped to three percentage points. The candidate with the strongest average is Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) at +9.

Maryland: Big Media Buy for Hogan Allies — Reports from the Free State are indicating that the Maryland’s Future Super PAC organization, which supports former Gov. Larry Hogan (R), has been reserving $18.2 million of advertising time for between now and the election. This is twice the amount that Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks is spending. Expect to see a large amount of Super PAC money to come to Alsobrooks’ rescue. The Democratic leadership and her outside allies will ensure the spending gap is at least equalized.

House

California: USC Releases Polls for Key Districts — The University of Southern California and the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at Cal State University Long Beach partnered to test eight California congressional districts. Two were Democrat vs. Democrat campaigns, and another found the sample size dropping significantly below an adequate level, so the numbers in CA-22 — Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. Rudy Salas (D) — should not be considered as viable. In the two Democratic seats, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) board member Lateefah Simon leads in Rep. Barbara Lee’s (D-Oakland) open 12th District and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo posts a sizable advantage in Rep. Anna Eshoo’s (D-Atherton) open 16th CD.

Interestingly, in only one of two races where the Republican candidate held a lead, the USC poll features a GOP challenger. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) held a three-point lead over state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) in an open contest where the latter man’s most prevalent negative is his highly publicized drunk driving conviction. The other leader is Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) who posted only a one-point edge over former federal prosecutor and 2022 general election finalist Will Rollins (D).

The Democrats who were leading Republican incumbents were Adam Gray over Rep. John Duarte (one point difference), George Whitesides topping Rep. Mike Garcia (+2), and Derek Tran leading Rep. Michelle Steel (+2).
The pollsters interviewed 2,395 likely voters in the five congressional districts during the Sept. 14-21 period. Interestingly, the undecided voters, when pushed, leaned toward Reps. Duarte and Calvert, and for the Democratic candidate in the other three contests.

In terms of the presidential vote, Kamala Harris led in all tested districts against Donald Trump but ran an average of three percentage points behind Joe Biden’s 2020 tallies. All of these races are very much in play, and the turnout model will likely be the deciding factor.

Nebraska Not Likely to Change Electoral Vote System; Begich Up in Alaska; Lawler Leads Jones in NY-17; New Hampshire’s Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024

President

Nebraska: Not Likely to Change Electoral Vote System — The proposed move to change the Nebraska electoral vote apportionment is apparently dead. A key state senator announced his opposition, and the bill appears stalled. Gov. Jim Pillen (R) was urging that the unicameral legislature change the state back to winner-take-all status like 48 other states. While the entire congressional delegation supported the governor’s move, the legislature is not going along.

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that allow their congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote. The proposed change in Nebraska’s status would likely have given Donald Trump an extra electoral vote, which could be defining in what is expected to be a very close election. Chances are much better to make a change to effect the 2028 election. The state adopted their current electoral vote system in 1992.

House

AK-AL: Republican Begich Up for First Time — For the first time, a congressional poll shows Republican Nick Begich III leading incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). American Viewpoint, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee, (Sept. 14-17; 400 likely Alaska voters) finds Begich posting an edge of four points over Rep. Peltola, 44-40 percent.

Under the state’s top four system, two other candidates also advance into the general election, Democrat Eric Hafner, who is in federal prison, and Alaska Independent Party candidate John Wayne Howe. Should the final result show Begich the race leader but under 50 percent, the Ranked Choice Voting System will take effect, and this would likely mean that Rep. Peltola would win re-election even while getting fewer original votes.

NY-17: Lawler Continues to Lead — One of the key New York congressional races is Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R-Pearl River) first re-election battle in the D+7 (according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization) 17th Congressional District located in the Hudson Valley. Challenging the freshman congressman is former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D).

The survey, from the Democratic polling firm GBAO (Sept. 15-18; 500 likely NY-17 voters; live interview and text), finds Rep. Lawler leading Jones, 46-43 percent, which, the polling analysis illustrates is down from the congressman’s seven-point margin in August. Still, a Republican having any lead in such a district is a positive sign for the incumbent.

Governor

New Hampshire: Democrat Leads Ayotte — Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte easily won the Republican primary on Sept. 10 (66-32 percent over former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse), but the general election looks much different according to a new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll (Sept. 12-16; 1,695 likely New Hampshire general election voters; online). The ballot test shows a virtual tie between Ayotte and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), 47-46 percent.

New Hampshire is a swing state that has been trending Democratic in recent elections. Former President Donald Trump has performed below an average Republican, which is another factor that could hurt Ayotte. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a new ad that compares Ayotte’s statement is 2016 that she would not vote for Trump with her current position that she is supporting him in 2024.

Harris to Skip Traditional Event; Trump Declines Debate; Tracking Poll Trends; MT-1 Remains Close

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

VP Kamala Harris: Skipping Catholic Al Smith Event — The attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris failing to participate in public events or news conferences intensified over the past weekend when her campaign confirmed that she will not attend the annual Al Smith Catholic fundraising dinner in New York on Oct. 17.

It has become a tradition that the presidential candidates attend this function together, but the Harris campaign is deciding to buck a trend that has been in effect for 40 years. We can expect a Trump campaign attempt to use her decision to drive a wedge between Harris and Catholic voters.

Donald Trump: Rejects Oct. 23 Debate — It appears the first debate between Harris and former President Donald Trump will be the last. While Harris declined to participate in a Fox News debate that Trump accepted, now the Republican nominee has declined CNN’s invitation to debate Harris on Oct. 23. Trump says that date is too late for a forum since so many people will have already cast a ballot through early voting.

Senate

Tracking Polls: Ohio and Texas Flip Leaders — Tracking polls are conducted not so much to capture where a race stands, but rather to detect which candidate the race trend favors over a sustained period. Therefore, we see two major long term tracking polls suggesting that the underdog candidate in each important Senate contest is currently moving upward.

In Texas, the Morning Consult survey research firm is conducting a nationwide series of Senate and presidential race tracks in the key states. In Texas, the MC data (Sept. 9-18; 2,716 likely Texas voters; online) finds Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) pulling one point ahead of incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 45-44 percent. The Activote firm conducted a five-week track of the Ohio Senate race (Aug. 16-9/22; 400 likely Ohio voters) and sees GOP challenger Bernie Moreno moving ahead of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) by two percentage points, 51-49 percent.

In neither case do these tracking results necessarily mean that the incumbent is now trailing, only that their opponents’ campaigns are on an upswing.

House

MT-1: Remains Close — The western 1st Congressional District of Montana was newly created after the 2020 census due to population growth, and its first election delivered a closer than expected final tally. In that contest, then-former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congressman Ryan Zinke (R) under-performed with his 50-46 percent win over former US Olympian Monica Tranel (D). The latest 2024 poll again featuring the two contenders shows another similarly close result.

The Noble Predictive Insights survey (Sept. 11-14; 432 likely MT-1 voters) finds Zinke leading Tranel by only a 47-43 percent margin with the Libertarian candidate taking three percentage points. While the Montana Democratic Party failed in their lawsuit to disqualify the Libertarian Party from the statewide ballot, in this race the presence of a minor party candidate might be helping their contender. While Rep. Zinke is still favored, it appears we are headed for another tight finish.