Category Archives: Presidential campaign

Polling Series – Still Anybody’s Game; However, Nevada, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin are Most Critical

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024

Swing States

British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies released the results of their latest US presidential battleground state polling series for the United Kingdom’s Telegraph publication. The results clearly indicate that the race, with just under a month until election day, is still very much up for grabs.

The series covered nine states, including the domains virtually everyone considers as battlegrounds: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The pollsters then added two more that are likely to break for one party or the other with relatively substantial margins: Florida is going to vote for Republican former President Donald Trump, while Minnesota will remain safely in the Democratic column for Vice President Kamala Harris.

The polls were conducted during the Sept. 27-Oct. 2 period, and the sample sizes ranged from a low of 514 respondents in Nevada to a high of 5,686 who participated in Pennsylvania. In the nine states, a total of 18,875 individuals responded to the online poll questions.

Counting Florida and Minnesota in the respective Republican and Democratic columns, the seven battlegrounds all fell into a range of four points, from +2 to -2. Trump led in North Carolina (+2) and Arizona (+1). Harris held the slightest of edges in four states: Michigan (+2), Nevada (+1), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+1). The pair drew dead even in Georgia.

The bottom line is that all of the battlegrounds, according to this data and most other, are in toss-up status and each of the deciding states could still fall to either candidate.

Looking ahead, the most important domain on the current board appears to be North Carolina. The Tar Heel State is a must win for Trump. If Harris wins this state, she will likely claim the national election.

Conversely, if Trump were to hold North Carolina, win Georgia and Pennsylvania, all of which is highly possible, he would clinch the election. Keeping North Carolina in his category and taking both Georgia and Pennsylvania, and assuming the other 24 states and the 2nd District of Maine that all voted for him twice remain in his camp for the 2024 election, means Trump would convert the 35 electoral votes he needs to clinch the presidency.

Should Harris break through in either North Carolina or Georgia, she would be virtually assured of national victory.

Previously, we reported on a Trump under-poll pattern in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. There we saw either a significant understatement of Trump’s support in the Silver, Keystone, and Badger States, or a surge for him in the final month of the campaign.

In any event, his actual performance in each of these states in 2020 was better than what was indicated in July through October polling by a margin of 2.8 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and 3.7 points in Nevada. Trump outperformed his Wisconsin polling by an even larger 5.93 percent clip.

There is no guarantee that the same 2020 pattern in these states will again occur, but if it does, the three states would cumulatively deliver the 35 electoral votes (NV 6; PA 19; WI 10) that Trump needs to reclaim the White House. Therefore, the Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin path is one of the few Trump winning scenarios that would yield a national victory without including the state of Georgia.

Basically, the Redfield and Wilton research again shows that both candidates have a virtually equal chance of winning the November election and will do so with a combination of several of these critical swing domains discussed above.

How the Country has Changed

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024

President

An individual named Alex Seitz-Weld on X (a national politics reporter for NBC News) has brought forth an interesting chart to show just how much the country has changed politically over the course of time.

The chart is simply an Electoral College map of the 1976 presidential election (above), which depicts a very different voting pattern compared to what may be unfolding this year. Basically, the changes show an almost complete political reversal.

It may be surprising to see that today’s solid red South went wholly Democrat, for favorite son Jimmy Carter, in the 1976 election. It wasn’t until the 1980 election when the South began to turn toward Republicans and has since not retreated from that voting pattern. Even more surprising, today’s solid blue Pacific Northwest — California, Oregon, and Washington — all voted Republican for then-President Gerald Ford 48 years ago.

In fact, the entire west, from the region’s eastern-most states of North Dakota through Oklahoma, and all domains between there and the Pacific Ocean, voted Republican for then-President Ford. Also in that year, modern day rock-ribbed red Texas went Democrat for Carter.

In all, a majority of states, 28, have changed their ideological positions from the tight presidential election of 1976 where the Democrats carried only 23 states, but with domains large enough to give Carter a 297 to 240 Electoral College victory. A lone elector from Washington cast the 538th Electoral College vote for Ronald Reagan.

Many of the states’ ideological changes proved long lasting. As mentioned, though California, Oregon, and Washington voted Republican in ’76, we now see those three states forming at the very least a major part of the Democrats’ Electoral College partisan base. Other states in this orbit are Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Vermont.

Conversely, the following states, which are now base Republican, previously voted Democratic in the 1976 election: Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia. Four other states, Florida, Iowa, Montana, and Ohio, are still competitive in certain situations, but are consistently moving toward the Republicans.

Continuing to categorize the changes, states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin that are behaving like swing states today generally favored one side or the other in previous political times.

The Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia electorates were generally Republican, while voters in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin typically aligned with Democrat candidates.

Other states have remained base votes for one party or the other over a sustained course of time. For the Democrats, their most loyal domains are Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island.

The most time-proven loyal Republican electorates are found in the states of Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. Yet, all of these base Democrat and Republican states have elected politicians of the opposite party during the 48-year span.

In conclusion, it appears that the old saying, “the more things change, the more they stay the same,” doesn’t quite apply to American elections. For most places, political transformation over the course of time has occurred. It remains to be seen what underpinnings of change may come from the impending 2024 election.

VP Harris Holds Slight Edge in Nevada; Balance of Senate Tested; Senate Money in Maryland; Examining California’s Key Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 27, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Nevada: New Polling Data Tracking with 2020 Result — Noble Predictive Insights tested the Nevada electorate in reference to the presidential campaign and finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by only a percentage point, 48-47 percent.

Looking at the geographic division in the Noble poll and comparing it to Gov. Joe Lombardo’s (R) victorious 2022 votes received from Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno), and the rural Nevada areas, the Trump figures are equivalent to Lombardo’s performance in Clark and Washoe. It is the rural areas where Trump will need to slightly improve if he is to carry the state.

While he will outpace Harris by better than 2:1 in this region, Trump’s 2020 performance in the rural areas was a point behind Lombardo’s 2022 total. Considering Trump lost to then candidate Joe Biden by 2.3 percentage points here in 2020, the former president will need to improve slightly upon Lombardo’s numbers in all regions, but especially in the rural areas, if he is to compensate for his previous deficit.

Senate

FiveThirtyEight: Releases New Senate Mean Average Data — The FiveThirtyEight data organization released new mean averages for all the competitive Senate races and, for the most part, the numbers are consistent with averages publicized on other platforms.

While Democrats have relatively small but consistent leads in most of the competitive states, the Republican average is stronger (+3) in Montana, where a Tim Sheehy (R) victory over Sen. Jon Tester (D) would likely clinch an outright GOP Senate majority. The race that appears to be getting closer is in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) average advantage has dropped to three percentage points. The candidate with the strongest average is Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) at +9.

Maryland: Big Media Buy for Hogan Allies — Reports from the Free State are indicating that the Maryland’s Future Super PAC organization, which supports former Gov. Larry Hogan (R), has been reserving $18.2 million of advertising time for between now and the election. This is twice the amount that Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks is spending. Expect to see a large amount of Super PAC money to come to Alsobrooks’ rescue. The Democratic leadership and her outside allies will ensure the spending gap is at least equalized.

House

California: USC Releases Polls for Key Districts — The University of Southern California and the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at Cal State University Long Beach partnered to test eight California congressional districts. Two were Democrat vs. Democrat campaigns, and another found the sample size dropping significantly below an adequate level, so the numbers in CA-22 — Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. Rudy Salas (D) — should not be considered as viable. In the two Democratic seats, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) board member Lateefah Simon leads in Rep. Barbara Lee’s (D-Oakland) open 12th District and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo posts a sizable advantage in Rep. Anna Eshoo’s (D-Atherton) open 16th CD.

Interestingly, in only one of two races where the Republican candidate held a lead, the USC poll features a GOP challenger. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) held a three-point lead over state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) in an open contest where the latter man’s most prevalent negative is his highly publicized drunk driving conviction. The other leader is Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) who posted only a one-point edge over former federal prosecutor and 2022 general election finalist Will Rollins (D).

The Democrats who were leading Republican incumbents were Adam Gray over Rep. John Duarte (one point difference), George Whitesides topping Rep. Mike Garcia (+2), and Derek Tran leading Rep. Michelle Steel (+2).
The pollsters interviewed 2,395 likely voters in the five congressional districts during the Sept. 14-21 period. Interestingly, the undecided voters, when pushed, leaned toward Reps. Duarte and Calvert, and for the Democratic candidate in the other three contests.

In terms of the presidential vote, Kamala Harris led in all tested districts against Donald Trump but ran an average of three percentage points behind Joe Biden’s 2020 tallies. All of these races are very much in play, and the turnout model will likely be the deciding factor.

Nebraska Not Likely to Change Electoral Vote System; Begich Up in Alaska; Lawler Leads Jones in NY-17; New Hampshire’s Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024

President

Nebraska: Not Likely to Change Electoral Vote System — The proposed move to change the Nebraska electoral vote apportionment is apparently dead. A key state senator announced his opposition, and the bill appears stalled. Gov. Jim Pillen (R) was urging that the unicameral legislature change the state back to winner-take-all status like 48 other states. While the entire congressional delegation supported the governor’s move, the legislature is not going along.

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that allow their congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote. The proposed change in Nebraska’s status would likely have given Donald Trump an extra electoral vote, which could be defining in what is expected to be a very close election. Chances are much better to make a change to effect the 2028 election. The state adopted their current electoral vote system in 1992.

House

AK-AL: Republican Begich Up for First Time — For the first time, a congressional poll shows Republican Nick Begich III leading incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). American Viewpoint, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee, (Sept. 14-17; 400 likely Alaska voters) finds Begich posting an edge of four points over Rep. Peltola, 44-40 percent.

Under the state’s top four system, two other candidates also advance into the general election, Democrat Eric Hafner, who is in federal prison, and Alaska Independent Party candidate John Wayne Howe. Should the final result show Begich the race leader but under 50 percent, the Ranked Choice Voting System will take effect, and this would likely mean that Rep. Peltola would win re-election even while getting fewer original votes.

NY-17: Lawler Continues to Lead — One of the key New York congressional races is Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R-Pearl River) first re-election battle in the D+7 (according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization) 17th Congressional District located in the Hudson Valley. Challenging the freshman congressman is former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D).

The survey, from the Democratic polling firm GBAO (Sept. 15-18; 500 likely NY-17 voters; live interview and text), finds Rep. Lawler leading Jones, 46-43 percent, which, the polling analysis illustrates is down from the congressman’s seven-point margin in August. Still, a Republican having any lead in such a district is a positive sign for the incumbent.

Governor

New Hampshire: Democrat Leads Ayotte — Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte easily won the Republican primary on Sept. 10 (66-32 percent over former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse), but the general election looks much different according to a new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll (Sept. 12-16; 1,695 likely New Hampshire general election voters; online). The ballot test shows a virtual tie between Ayotte and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), 47-46 percent.

New Hampshire is a swing state that has been trending Democratic in recent elections. Former President Donald Trump has performed below an average Republican, which is another factor that could hurt Ayotte. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a new ad that compares Ayotte’s statement is 2016 that she would not vote for Trump with her current position that she is supporting him in 2024.

Harris to Skip Traditional Event; Trump Declines Debate; Tracking Poll Trends; MT-1 Remains Close

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

VP Kamala Harris: Skipping Catholic Al Smith Event — The attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris failing to participate in public events or news conferences intensified over the past weekend when her campaign confirmed that she will not attend the annual Al Smith Catholic fundraising dinner in New York on Oct. 17.

It has become a tradition that the presidential candidates attend this function together, but the Harris campaign is deciding to buck a trend that has been in effect for 40 years. We can expect a Trump campaign attempt to use her decision to drive a wedge between Harris and Catholic voters.

Donald Trump: Rejects Oct. 23 Debate — It appears the first debate between Harris and former President Donald Trump will be the last. While Harris declined to participate in a Fox News debate that Trump accepted, now the Republican nominee has declined CNN’s invitation to debate Harris on Oct. 23. Trump says that date is too late for a forum since so many people will have already cast a ballot through early voting.

Senate

Tracking Polls: Ohio and Texas Flip Leaders — Tracking polls are conducted not so much to capture where a race stands, but rather to detect which candidate the race trend favors over a sustained period. Therefore, we see two major long term tracking polls suggesting that the underdog candidate in each important Senate contest is currently moving upward.

In Texas, the Morning Consult survey research firm is conducting a nationwide series of Senate and presidential race tracks in the key states. In Texas, the MC data (Sept. 9-18; 2,716 likely Texas voters; online) finds Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) pulling one point ahead of incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 45-44 percent. The Activote firm conducted a five-week track of the Ohio Senate race (Aug. 16-9/22; 400 likely Ohio voters) and sees GOP challenger Bernie Moreno moving ahead of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) by two percentage points, 51-49 percent.

In neither case do these tracking results necessarily mean that the incumbent is now trailing, only that their opponents’ campaigns are on an upswing.

House

MT-1: Remains Close — The western 1st Congressional District of Montana was newly created after the 2020 census due to population growth, and its first election delivered a closer than expected final tally. In that contest, then-former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congressman Ryan Zinke (R) under-performed with his 50-46 percent win over former US Olympian Monica Tranel (D). The latest 2024 poll again featuring the two contenders shows another similarly close result.

The Noble Predictive Insights survey (Sept. 11-14; 432 likely MT-1 voters) finds Zinke leading Tranel by only a 47-43 percent margin with the Libertarian candidate taking three percentage points. While the Montana Democratic Party failed in their lawsuit to disqualify the Libertarian Party from the statewide ballot, in this race the presence of a minor party candidate might be helping their contender. While Rep. Zinke is still favored, it appears we are headed for another tight finish.

Polling Histories: On Repeat for 2024?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 20, 2024

Polling

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Media stories are covering the recently released Selzer & Company Iowa poll, from a research entity proven as the Hawkeye State’s most accurate pollster. According to the Selzer survey (Sept. 8-11; 656 likely Iowa voters; live interview), former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is 47-43 percent, which is being cast as a tightening of the race in what has proven to be a strong Trump domain.

Researching the commensurate Selzer Sept. 17-19 Iowa poll from the 2020 election, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the ballot test projected a tie between Trump and candidate Joe Biden. Trump would then move on to post an eight-point victory in Iowa in the succeeding election.

Should a similar pattern exist for 2024 in a state that typically breaks late for one candidate or the other, it is possible that Trump’s impending Iowa victory could be even stronger than his win four years ago, considering he is in better shape today when compared to his 2020 dead-heat standing.

Many states feature reliable polling histories and trends that repeat. Iowa surveys tend to routinely show tight races early with a late break. In another example, Republicans tend to under-poll in the southern states, but over-poll in New Jersey and among African-American voters.

Georgia, which is an all-important state in this year’s presidential election, tends not to follow the pattern of the other southern states. Here, the polling tends to be particularly accurate. Therefore, current polls finding Trump and Harris locked into what appears to be a dead heat should be considered correct.

Looking at some of the key battleground states, all are producing tight margins between Harris and Trump. This means we are far from seeing the 2024 race decided, and either candidate is in a position to win the election.

Appearing to be the closest states among the key battlegrounds are Nevada and Pennsylvania, which the Real Clear Politics statistical projections forecast as being dead-even when looking at the accumulation of polls conducted right after Harris was installed as the Democrats’ replacement nominee through the present time.

The same formula suggests that Trump has the slightest average lead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Harris posts tight average leads in Michigan and Wisconsin.

In Nevada, 11 polls have been conducted since Harris became the Democrat nominee. She leads in six of the 11, and Trump, five. In 2020, looking at this same late July through mid-September period, Joe Biden had an average lead of six percentage points from a dozen polls conducted during the studied period and led in all 12 of the surveys. Yet Biden would only carry the state by less than one percentage point (0.7 percent) in the succeeding November vote. If this polling pattern remains consistent in 2024, then Trump would be well positioned for a Silver State upset.

Many believe that Pennsylvania is becoming the ultimate deciding state, although there are plausible ways that both candidates can win the national election without carrying the Keystone State. Still, whichever candidate does win there, that candidate will score a huge bonus on their electoral college victory projection map.

Since July, 15 Pennsylvania polls have been conducted and the two contenders are virtually even in support. Of the 15 surveys, Trump has led in seven and Harris, five. Three of the polls have resulted in a flat tie. Four years ago, Biden, again within the commensurate late July to mid-September period, had an average lead of four percentage points within this aggregate group of research studies. Furthermore, he led in 11 polls with one tie. Trump did not post an advantage in a single poll during the commensurate interval.

The Pennsylvania election culminated in a Biden victory spread of 1.3 percentage points, which again suggests that Trump gained support in the critical closing weeks. Though it wasn’t enough for him to win in 2020, such a repeat performance would be enough to carry the state in 2024, and with that a likely national victory would occur.

50-State Presidential Map; Fischer on Offense in Nebraska; Ohio Data Shows Tightening Race; A Casey Rebound in Pennsylvania

Morning Consult 2024 Election – State Polls (click on image to go to Morning Consult)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 12, 2024

President

Morning Consult: Releases 50-State Presidential Map — The Morning Consult survey research organization conducts ongoing tracking surveys on a continuous basis and published a national map regarding presidential race polling. The results produced only two surprises.

In rating all of the states toward either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump, all of the traditional swing states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are rated as toss-ups as one would expect. The two surprises lying in the Morning Consult toss-up category, however, are Maine and New Hampshire. Adding these two states to the undecided, if confirmed, could change the election outlook.

Senate

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer on Offense — Within the last week, polling has been released confirming earlier surveys that Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is in a surprisingly tight race with Independent candidate Dan Osborn. The senator is taking action. Her campaign has launched an attack ad against Osborn, questioning his independent credentials, tying him to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I), attacking him on abortion and the Green New Deal, and calling him a “Trojan Horse.”

The Fischer offensive move suggests that the campaign’s internal polling confirms what the public polls have reported: that a surprising close race is unfolding.

Ohio: More Data Suggesting a Closer Race — We now see a new release from Morning Consult (Aug. 30-Sept. 8; 1,558 likely Ohio voters; online panel) that also finds the Ohio Senate race getting closer. The MC ballot test results confirm in almost identical fashion the most recently released survey that finds Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) lead dwindling. Morning Consult posted a 46-43 percent result.

The previous Emerson College survey (Sept. 3-5; 945 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) released late last week produced a 46-44 percent split between Sen. Brown and Republican nominee Bernie Moreno. Previously, 10 consecutive polls found Brown’s edge to be on or around five percentage points, but he only secured majority support in two of the studies.

Since research shows that Sen. Brown over-polled in his previous race (2018) – his polling lead was 13 points headed into the election, but his victory margin was six – the current campaign is likely to get even tighter as we continue to move toward election month.

Pennsylvania: A Casey Rebound — At the end of August, four Pennsylvania Senate race polls found the contest between Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and Republican businessman David McCormick falling into the toss-up realm with a ballot test range of 0-4 percentage points. It appeared a new race trend could be developing.

Now, however, we see Sen. Casey rebounding in an even newer series of studies. From the period of Sept. 3-9, four polls were released (CBS News; co/efficient; Morning Consult; and Redfield and Wilton Strategies) that produced data revealing Casey leads of 7, 9, 9, and 8 percentage points, yet the senator never reached 50 percent in any. The Pennsylvania Senate race should continue to be rated as Lean Democratic.

Poll Respondents Want Change; Ohio Moves Towards Moreno; Virginia
Lt. Gov. Announces for 2025 Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris: a tough path to winning in November. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

NYT/Siena College Poll: Respondents Want Change — In the latest national New York Times/Siena College survey (Sept. 3-6; 1,695 registered US voters; 1,374 likely voters), the pollsters queried the respondents about whether they wanted “a major change from President Biden.” A total of 61 percent of the respondents said they do, and by a margin of 53-25 percent further said that Donald Trump is the candidate who “represents major change in this election.” Yet, on the ballot test, former President Donald Trump’s national lead was only two percentage points, and Vice President Kamala Harris leads in most other national polls.

Nevada: Kennedy On, Greens Off — The key state of Nevada won’t let Robert F. Kennedy Jr. come off the ballot, and it won’t put the Green Party on. The state Supreme Court has ruled that Kennedy made his decision too late to be removed from the ballot after qualifying, while the Green Party did not meet the legal requirements. Both decisions appear to help Kamala Harris.

Ironically, the Nevada Democratic Party sued to have Kennedy removed before the candidate petitioned to strike his name. Therefore, it is possible the Nevada Democrats feel that Kennedy’s presence on the ballot actually helps Trump.

Senate

Ohio: Movement Toward Moreno — For the first time since Emerson College’s late January poll, the survey research entity’s most recent study (for The Hill newspaper; Sept. 3-5; 945 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leading businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by only a two point margin, 46-44 percent.

In late January, Emerson found the same spread. Since that time, Sen. Brown has averaged a five-point advantage from 10 polls conducted during the eight-month period. In all polls, as is the case with this most recent Emerson survey, Trump maintains a strong lead over his Democratic opponent. The current survey finds him leading Vice President Harris, 54-45 percent.

Governor

Virginia: Lt. Gov. Announces for 2025 Governor’s Race — Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) late last week officially announced her 2025 gubernatorial candidacy, to no political observer’s surprise. It is most likely that she and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen), who appears to be unopposed for the Democratic nomination, will square off in the open general election. Though Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) enjoys favorable job approval ratings, the state’s voting history suggests that Spanberger will be considered the favorite to win the impending statewide race.

Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) has not ruled out joining the race after the 2024 elections, but it is doubtful that he would challenge Sears. More than likely, he seeks re-election.

Though Virginia limits its governors to one term, the only state to do so, its other constitutional offices of lieutenant governor and attorney general have no such limit. In fact, incumbents in the other offices have no limitation on how many terms they may serve.

Ballot Decisions — Who’s In, Who’s Out; Nebraska News; Primary Results; Early Ballots Going Out

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 5, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ballot: Key States Make Decisions — More states are finalizing their 2024 general election ballot, and we see new decisions announced in key battlegrounds. The North Carolina Board of Elections ruled that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) will remain on the ballot despite his withdrawal action. Kennedy says he will sue to overturn the board’s ruling.

In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) declared that Kennedy can withdraw from the ballot, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein is disqualified. Making the Georgia ballot are Independent Cornel West and Communist Party nominee Claudia de la Cruz.

The new Virginia ruling includes Kennedy on the ballot but Dr. West is disqualified.

NE-2: Harris Leads in S-USA Poll — As part of Survey USA’s Nebraska statewide poll, the research organization tested the state’s 2nd District, the seat that can vote against the Republican statewide result and deliver an important electoral vote to the Democrats.

According to the S-USA results (Aug. 23-27; 507 NE-2 registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by a 47-42 percent margin. This district is important because, if it votes Trump’s way, the CD could cause a tie in the Electoral College, thus sending the race to the House of Representatives to decide the final outcome.

Senate

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer’s Small Lead — The Survey USA statewide poll (Aug. 23-27; 1,293 registered Nebraska voters; multiple sampling techniques) again delivers unwelcome news for Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who is seeking her third term in office. Here, the Democrats are not fielding a candidate, instead throwing their backing behind an Independent candidate to form a coalition, similar to the way the Utah Democrats backed Independent Evan McMullin in 2022.

Though polling was suggesting a close race in Utah, the end result found Sen. Mike Lee (R) generally uniting right-of-center voters and winning re-election with a 53-43 percent vote spread. In this Nebraska poll, Sen. Fischer posts only a one point edge, 39-38 percent, over local union President Dan Osborn who is running on the Independent ballot line. While the Osborn standing at 38 percent is likely what one would expect for a left-of-center candidate in Nebraska, Sen. Fischer’s 39 percent poll total suggests severe under-performance.

Primary Results

Massachusetts: Most Will Run Unopposed — Attorney and Marine Corps veteran John Deaton easily defeated two other Republican candidates on Tuesday and will now face Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) in the general election. Obviously, Sen. Warren will be considered a prohibitive favorite in this most Democratic of states.

In the House, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Springfield) faces only Independent candidates in November. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) will again see opposition from 2022 GOP nominee Rob Burke in this year’s general election. Two years ago, Rep. Lynch was re-elected with 70 percent of the vote, and we can count on a similar result in November.

Rep. Bill Keating’s (D-Bourne) general election opponent is nurse Dan Sullivan (R), who was unopposed for his party’s nomination. As is the case for Rep. Lynch, Rep. Keating is considered a prohibitive favorite for re-election. The other six members of the Massachusetts US House delegation, all Democrats, are all unopposed in the general election.

States

Early Voting: Ballots Mailed This Week — The time for states to begin sending absentee ballots to voters is here. The first state to begin mailing ballots is North Carolina, and their deadline for posting is tomorrow, Friday, Sept. 6th. Three states will open early voting polling places on the 20th of this month: Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia. A fourth, Illinois, will follow suit six days later.

All but three states, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire, have some form of early voting. Clearly early voting changes campaign strategies, and certainly the political calendar. Instead of election day, we now have election month. Charting early voting has become a valuable way of monitoring voter intensity, which often is a victory momentum indicator.

West Fails to Qualify for Florida Ballot; Close Florida Senate Poll; Luna Trailing in FL-13 Survey;
NJ-9 Nominee Clinched

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 30, 2024

President

Presidential candidate Dr. Cornel West

Cornel West: Fails to Qualify for Florida Ballot — As ballots become finalized around the country, election officials in the state of Florida announced earlier this week that Independent presidential candidate Dr. Cornel West has failed to meet the state’s requirements for ballot access. Therefore, his name will not appear before the Florida electorate. Dr. West has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Colorado, Michigan, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

He could draw a percentage point or so of support from Vice President Kamala Harris in the key battleground states of Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, which could prove definitive. Dr. West might also be part of a matrix that could force the Alaska race into the Ranked Choice Voting round by helping deny former President Donald Trump majority support.

Senate

Florida: Another Close Poll — We’ve recently seen several polls that project Sen. Rick Scott (R) as being in a close race against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), Public Policy Polling (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; Aug. 21-22; 837 registered Florida voters; bilingual option available; live interview and text) publicized their late August findings that posted Sen. Scott to only a 48-45 percent lead over Mucarsel-Powell, this just one month after the Florida primary election. Earlier in the month, Florida Atlantic University tested the state’s electorate (Aug. 10-11; 1,040 likely Florida voters; Interactive Voice Response system with bilingual option and online) and drew a similar conclusion. Their ballot test response yielded a Scott edge of 47-43 percent.

Recent electoral and polling history tells us, however, that seeing Democrats performing well in Florida races during August is not unusual, while Republican strength then shows itself as the calendar officially moves into autumn. Additionally, the polling has typically inaccurately depicted Republican strength in the most recent campaigns. Therefore, it is likely Sen. Scott stands in better position than these surveys suggest.

House

FL-13: Rep. Luna Trailing in Post-Primary Poll — As is the case with Sen. Scott as explained above, we see potentially the same polling situation developing in the Tampa Bay area.

A new St. Pete Polls survey finds 13th District freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) trailing her new Democratic general election opponent. The St. Pete Polls’ 13th District survey (Aug. 27; 843 registered FL-13 voters; automated phone calls and text) found new Democratic nominee Whitney Fox leading Rep. Luna, 48-44 percent, in the first publicly released poll since May. In that month’s GQR survey for the Fox campaign, Rep. Luna led 51-46 percent.

A similar pattern, though which much less data, was also present in Luna’s 2022 congressional race. The one published pre-election poll, also from St. Pete Polls and conducted over the Oct. 26-27 period, found Luna leading her ’22 opponent, Democrat Eric Lynn, by only one point, 46-45 percent, yet she carried the district by 8.1 percentage points in the actual vote. Again, we see another Florida Republican whose strength was not correctly projected, in this case, by an under-count of just over seven percentage points.

NJ-9: Nominee Clinched — It appears the nomination process to choose a successor to the late New Jersey Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) has ended even before the official Democratic Party meeting to select a candidate has even begun.

After state Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce by obtaining endorsements from the local county party chairmen and other key local leaders, all of the other major candidates removed themselves from further consideration. Therefore, it appears that Sen. Pou will be the new nominee and will become a prohibitive favorite to defeat 2022 Republican nominee Billy Prempeh to keep New Jersey’s 9th District in Democratic hands.