By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 20, 2024
Polling
Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore
Researching the commensurate Selzer Sept. 17-19 Iowa poll from the 2020 election, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the ballot test projected a tie between Trump and candidate Joe Biden. Trump would then move on to post an eight-point victory in Iowa in the succeeding election.
Should a similar pattern exist for 2024 in a state that typically breaks late for one candidate or the other, it is possible that Trump’s impending Iowa victory could be even stronger than his win four years ago, considering he is in better shape today when compared to his 2020 dead-heat standing.
Many states feature reliable polling histories and trends that repeat. Iowa surveys tend to routinely show tight races early with a late break. In another example, Republicans tend to under-poll in the southern states, but over-poll in New Jersey and among African-American voters.
Georgia, which is an all-important state in this year’s presidential election, tends not to follow the pattern of the other southern states. Here, the polling tends to be particularly accurate. Therefore, current polls finding Trump and Harris locked into what appears to be a dead heat should be considered correct.
Looking at some of the key battleground states, all are producing tight margins between Harris and Trump. This means we are far from seeing the 2024 race decided, and either candidate is in a position to win the election.
Appearing to be the closest states among the key battlegrounds are Nevada and Pennsylvania, which the Real Clear Politics statistical projections forecast as being dead-even when looking at the accumulation of polls conducted right after Harris was installed as the Democrats’ replacement nominee through the present time.
The same formula suggests that Trump has the slightest average lead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Harris posts tight average leads in Michigan and Wisconsin.
In Nevada, 11 polls have been conducted since Harris became the Democrat nominee. She leads in six of the 11, and Trump, five. In 2020, looking at this same late July through mid-September period, Joe Biden had an average lead of six percentage points from a dozen polls conducted during the studied period and led in all 12 of the surveys. Yet Biden would only carry the state by less than one percentage point (0.7 percent) in the succeeding November vote. If this polling pattern remains consistent in 2024, then Trump would be well positioned for a Silver State upset.
Many believe that Pennsylvania is becoming the ultimate deciding state, although there are plausible ways that both candidates can win the national election without carrying the Keystone State. Still, whichever candidate does win there, that candidate will score a huge bonus on their electoral college victory projection map.
Since July, 15 Pennsylvania polls have been conducted and the two contenders are virtually even in support. Of the 15 surveys, Trump has led in seven and Harris, five. Three of the polls have resulted in a flat tie. Four years ago, Biden, again within the commensurate late July to mid-September period, had an average lead of four percentage points within this aggregate group of research studies. Furthermore, he led in 11 polls with one tie. Trump did not post an advantage in a single poll during the commensurate interval.
The Pennsylvania election culminated in a Biden victory spread of 1.3 percentage points, which again suggests that Trump gained support in the critical closing weeks. Though it wasn’t enough for him to win in 2020, such a repeat performance would be enough to carry the state in 2024, and with that a likely national victory would occur.
