Tag Archives: Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi

Illinois Senate Senate Democratic
Primary Race Tightens in Week

(VIEWER WARNING: this is the original, unedited, candidate-approved video version straight from Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s official YouTube campaign website. Before you click on this to watch, we must warn you that it contains much unedited profanity.)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 13 2026

Senate

The Illinois Senate Democratic primary, which will be determinative in terms of who will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), is scheduled for next Tuesday, and the race is closing tight.

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi has led the open statewide primary from Day 1 and most polling, but not all, still shows him maintaining at least a small advantage. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has enjoyed strong outside support, which to a degree has checked Rep. Krishnamoorthi’s major campaign fundraising advantage (better than 7:1 over Stratton).

Furthermore, two March Public Policy Polling (PPP) surveys find her taking the slightest of leads. Yet, two other surveys still see Rep. Krishnamoorthi holding first place.

The Lieutenant Governor is creating controversy and absorbing push back, however, because of her new ad (shown above) showing various individuals using censored profanity to express their displeasure with President Trump. Therefore, the final week of this campaign is proving interesting.

The most recent PPP poll for Democratic Lieutenant Governors Assn (March 9-10; 700 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) projects Stratton to a 32-30-13 percent advantage over Rep. Krishnamoorthi and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago). For a time early in the race, it appeared that Kelly could make this a three-way contest but she has failed to catch fire.

A week earlier, the PPP tracking survey (March 2-3; 577 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) found a similar 33-30 percent Stratton lead. The previous track (Feb. 23-24; 546 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), however, saw Krishnamoorthi ahead by an equivalent 29-27 percent spread.

During the same early March time period, two different pollsters, Tulchin Research and Change Research, continued to detect Krishnamoorthi as the front runner by margins beyond the polling margin of error.

The most recent of these latter polls, from Tulchin (March 4-8, 600 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters), sees the Krishnamoorthi margin at a still substantial 39-28 percent. Change Research reported almost identical numbers. According to the CR results (March 3-5; 717 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; online) the spread is 36-26 percent.

The combined surveys tell a conflicting story, but it is important to remember that all of the research studies showing Stratton leading come from one pollster, Public Policy Polling, using a consistent methodology. The studies repeatedly posting Krishnamoorthi to the first position are from seven different pollsters, even including Public Policy Polling, during the early June to late February period.

Considering Krishnamoorthi’s large cash reserves – he disclosed over $6.5 million in the bank through the Feb. 25 Federal Election Commission pre-primary reporting period – one must surmise that most of the money, after a late media blitz is financed, will go toward voter turnout programs.

The Lieutenant Governor’s outside support comes largely from two sources. The first is a Super PAC spending approximately $7 million, which Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and his family largely fund, with the second being the Democratic Lieutenant Governor’s Association. It is also presumed that the Pritzker organization and labor unions supporting her effort will be running the major voter turnout programs on the Stratton campaign’s behalf.

Illinois is a plurality primary state, so the candidate attracting the most votes next Tuesday will be victorious irrespective of percentage attained. Therefore, either Rep. Krishnamoorthi or Lt. Gov. Stratton will claim the Democratic nomination on March 17 and then proceed into a long pro forma general election campaign.

With Illinois being one of the strongest Democratic states in the country, the Senate campaign will not be a Republican general election conversion target. Therefore, Tuesday’s winner will coast through to November and take the Senate seat when the new Congress is sworn into office next January and Sen. Durbin exits the political stage after what will be 44 years in Congress.

Senate Happenings: Florida, Illinois

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 20, 2025

Senate

Democrats now have a credible US Senate candidate in Florida, and a new Illinois Democratic primary poll finds Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) expanding upon his early lead.

Florida

Josh Weil (D), Florida

Josh Weil (D), Florida

Josh Weil (D), who labeled himself “a badass teacher,” and subsequently lost to freshman Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) 57-43 percent in the Florida district’s April 1 special election, now returns to elective politics. Late this week, Weil announced that he will enter the Senate race with the goal of opposing appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R), who will be on the federal ballot for the first time.

Weil attracted national attention for his special election campaign to succeed then-Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL-6), with his national fundraising program that accumulated well over $15 million in campaign receipts. Polling suggested a close finish, and even a possible upset, but as we have seen in many Florida elections, the pollsters often underestimate Republican voter strength.

In the end, Weil even failed to perform as well as a Democratic predecessor the last time the 6th District seat was open. While party nominee Nancy Soderberg garnered 44 percent of the vote against Waltz when he first won in 2018, Weil managed to only record 43 percent in voter support in his special election campaign effort.

According to The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators, the Weil campaign’s actual spending on voter contact media during the April election was only in the $4 million realm because such a large percentage of his receipts went toward fundraising expenses and campaign overhead.

It remains to be seen if Weil can raise the kind of money he did for the special congressional race when his federal campaign was only one of two occurring nationally, and news reports were suggesting an upset was possible. Additionally, Weil ran far to the left in the special election, which in the end didn’t work in the conservative 6th District and he won’t likely fare any better statewide with such a strategy.

Weil’s other major obstacle is the voter registration trends in the state. At the end of May, the latest Sunshine State registration figures give Republicans a 1.31 million voter advantage in partisan affiliation over Democrats.

Considering Florida’s recent electoral history, Sen. Moody is favored in the succeeding election, though it is clear that Weil looks to be the most credible Democrat coming forward to date.

Illinois

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi’s Senate campaign late this week released the results of its recent internal GBAO Strategies statewide poll (June 5-10; 1,200 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text). The ballot test posts the Congressman to a 32-19-14 percent advantage over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who has Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s (D-IL) endorsements, as well as Rep. Robin Kelly’s (D-Matteson/Chicago).

With Republicans not bringing forth a credible candidate to date, next year’s March 17 Democratic plurality primary will also effectively determine the general election outcome, and the winner will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).

The new research data reveals Krishnamoorthi momentum. In the GBAO April survey (April 24-28; 800 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) the Congressman topped Lt. Gov. Stratton and Rep. Kelly, but with a 27-18-11 percent margin, some five points under Krishnamoorthi’s current standing, though his opponents have also gained some support during the interval between polls.

The upcoming 2nd Quarter campaign disclosure reports, which will be made public on or around July 15, will give us further clues as to how this campaign is progressing. At the end of the 1st Quarter, Rep. Krishnamoorthi held a huge campaign resource lead with a cash-on-hand figure of $19.4 million in his congressional account, which is fully transferable to a Senate campaign committee. Rep. Kelly reported $2.0 million in her account, which will have to substantially improve if she is to become a strong contender.

Lt. Gov. Stratton was not a federal candidate at the 1st Quarter filing deadline, so the June 30 numbers will provide a glimpse into her support level. Early rumors suggested that she would receive more than just an endorsement from Gov. Pritzker. Many believe he will fund a Super PAC to assist her in the primary, but such has yet to materialize.

With the competitive Texas Republican Senate primary occurring on March 3 and the Illinois Democratic contest two weeks later, it is clear that these two big state Senate primaries will dominate the early part of the 2026 election cycle.