By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 20, 2025
House
The deaths of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Sylvester Turner (D-TX) necessitate special elections being called to fill the balance of their current terms. Candidates are starting to present themselves in each of these situations, and one of the specials now has an official election calendar.
The two impending special congressional elections occurring on April 1 are both in Florida. State Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis (R) is the prohibitive favorite to win the open 1st District and succeed resigned Congressman Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/ Pensacola). State Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) is primed to win the state’s open 6th CD. That position is vacant because previous incumbent Rep. Mike Waltz (R) resigned to become President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor.
Once these elections are complete, the House will move to a 220R – 213D partisan division. The Grijalva and Turner vacancies account for the final two House seats.
AZ-7
The late Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson)
Therefore, the 7th District will remain vacant until late September when a new member will be chosen. The late Congressman’s daughter, Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, will likely be one of the top contenders. Grijalva said she will make a final decision about running after her father’s funeral on March 26.
Tucson Mayor Regina Romero (D), who would be a major contender, has already said that she will not enter the special congressional election. Former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez (D), who is expected to become a candidate, has so far been non-committal when asked to make a public statement about his political intentions. Hernandez’s sisters, however, state Rep. Alma Hernandez (D-Tucson) and state Rep. Consuelo Hernandez (D-Pima County) both say they will not run for Congress.
The Pima County-anchored CD is safely Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+27. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 65.5D – 32.3R partisan lean. The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators rank AZ-7 as the 89th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference.
Expect further candidate announcements to come after Rep. Grijalva is laid to rest.
TX-18
The late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston)
Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) – not to be confused with Harris County District Attorney Sean Teare – resigned his position and announced that he will enter the special election. Significantly, he does so with the endorsement of Erica Carter, the late-Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s (D) daughter. Carter represented the constituency after her mother died and before Turner’s term began, and some speculated that she might enter the special election battle.
Former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-US Senate and House candidate Amanda Edwards (D) is also poised to announce her candidacy and may do so as early as today. Community Relations consultant and former Houston City Council candidate James Joseph (D) and former congressional aide Isaiah Martin (D) are also announced contenders.
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule the special election at some point but has no legal time requirement under Texas election law to do so. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-18 as D+43, so there is little doubt that a Democrat will hold the seat. There is a good possibility we will see a double-Democratic runoff in the eventual special runoff election. A secondary election will be scheduled if no candidate receives majority support in the first vote.