Monthly Archives: November 2024

Kamala for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 18, 2024

Governor

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Rumors abound in California that key Kamala Harris supporters will attempt to convince her to run for governor in 2026 when the seat next comes open. Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), a Harris political ally, is ineligible to seek a third term.

The idea is reminiscent of Richard Nixon’s move in 1962 after he lost the 1960 presidential election to John F. Kennedy. Like Harris, Nixon had been elected as a US senator from California and then vice president under Dwight Eisenhower in 1956. Ten years earlier, Nixon was elected to the House of Representatives from a southern California congressional seat.

Nixon’s gubernatorial bid failed. He would lose to then-Gov. Pat Brown, father of future governor and presidential candidate Jerry Brown, by a 52-47 percent majority. Though Nixon carried California against Kennedy, he did so with a bare 50.1 – 49.5 percent margin, meaning a spread of 35,623 votes from a total voting universe of 6.48 million ballots. Therefore, the idea of Nixon running for governor after losing the presidential race was iffy at best.

In those days, however, California was a competitive political state, and a Republican candidate could win a statewide election. Ronald Reagan would prove such four years later as he unseated Gov. Brown with a landslide 58-42 percent election that translated into an almost one million vote spread win for the actor turned politician who was of course a future president. In that election, Reagan won 55 of the state’s 58 counties.

The situation for Harris would be different. In the 2024 election, she carried California over President-Elect Trump with a 58.7 – 38.2 percent vote split, far superior to Nixon’s tight victory margin.

In her lone Senate race, 2016, she captured almost 62 percent of the vote against then-Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Orange County) in a double-Democratic general election. In her two successful races for the job of California Attorney General, Harris recorded victory percentages of 57.5 and 46.0 percent. The latter contest, in 2010, proved only a half-point win for Harris, but that was her first statewide run and California was more politically competitive during that period than today.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) are already announced gubernatorial candidates. Former State Controller Betty Yee (D) and ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) are also formally announced candidates. In the state’s top-two primary system, it is possible that two Democrats could again advance into the general election.

Therefore, Harris placing first in a multi-candidate jungle primary election would likely be the projected outcome, thus putting her in a strong position for the general election.

As Senator-Elect Adam Schiff (D) surmised in his statewide race, it would be to her benefit to draw a Republican opponent in the general election rather than another accomplished Democrat.

Though Republicans are far from being competitive enough to win a California statewide general election, their cumulative percentages in 2024 were an improvement over recent election cycles. Therefore, there is a greater possibility that the California GOP has enough strength to qualify a well-known general election finalist in 2026 as former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) was able to do in the ’24 open US Senate campaign.

While it remains unclear as to whether Kamala Harris will attempt a political comeback after her decisive national loss, returning to California to compete in an open 2026 governor’s race would be a logical place to make such a move should she so decide.

Mandated Recount
In Pennsylvania Senate Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 15, 2024

Senate

Former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R)

Though several media outlets have called the Pennsylvania Senate race for Republican David McCormick (R) over three-term Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D), the Secretary of the Commonwealth made an announcement that will continue political overtime until possibly the end of November.

Secretary of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Al Schmidt declared that the Senate results featuring Sen. Casey and McCormick will move to a mandated recount because the difference between the two contenders is less than a half of a percentage point. Under Pennsylvania election law, recounts are mandated when the vote margin is less than a half point.

The ruling is somewhat curious in that all 67 counties have apparently not finished the tabulation process, so it is presumed that if the final unofficial count grows to a margin greater than half of a percent, the recount will be cancelled.

Schmidt has informed each county election official that their final vote tallies must be completed before the recount begins on Nov. 20. The political overtime period must conclude by Nov. 26 with the final report sent to the Secretary of the Commonwealth’s office on Nov. 27 — the day before Thanksgiving.

The reported results and percentages are: McCormick: 3,380,310 (48.93 percent); Casey 3,350,972 (48.50 percent). The McCormick margin is 29,338 votes.

Predictably, both sides are attacking the other. The Casey operation issued a statement from the senator’s campaign manager saying, “David McCormick and his allies are trying to disenfranchise Pennsylvania voters with litigation designed to throw out large tranches of votes that they’ve admitted in legal filings could impact the outcome of the election. Senator Casey wants all Pennsylvanians’ voices to be heard as local county officials continue to count votes. This democratic process must be allowed to play out to determine the result of this election.”

The McCormick campaign is in court opposing Casey attempting to convince a judge to allow ballots from non-registered voters, those without individual signatures, mail-in ballots without dates, and those cast in a county where the voter does not live.

We can expect more rhetoric coming from both sides throughout the final counting period and during the recount phase. Though the percentage between the two candidates is low, the raw number of votes that constitutes McCormick’s lead is substantial. Switching as many as 30,000 votes through a recount seldom, if ever, happens.

The last time we saw a Senate race embroiled in a prolonged recount came from Minnesota back in 2008. In that election, which lingered until the following July to finally decide, the two principals, then-Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and entertainer Al Franken (D), were separated not by thousands of votes statewide, but rather just hundreds.

In fact, Coleman was originally certified the race winner with a vote margin of just 215 votes from almost 2.9 million votes cast. Though the state declared Coleman the official winner, the Franken forces continued to fight and were able to find a favorable court to overturn the election and allow “found” votes that were previously undiscovered. The change allowed Franken, months later, to win the seat with a 312-vote edge.

The Senate itself is the ultimate arbiter of disputed elections involving its members or prospective members and not the judiciary. In 2009, the Democrats enjoyed a large Senate majority that allowed Franken to continue to fight and eventually win his seat. Now that Republicans will have the majority in the 119th Congress, and at least a 52-47 margin without Pennsylvania being decided, McCormick should enjoy the similar chamber support which Franken had 16 years ago.

McCormick is still the favorite to eventually claim the Pennsylvania seat, but it appears this Senate race will drag on for several more weeks.

Replacing Rubio; Vance Replacement Considerations in Ohio; Two California House Seats Called

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024

Senate

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R)

Florida: Speculation About Rubio Replacement — Rumors are being quashed that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) would either appoint himself or his wife, Casey DeSantis, to replace Sen. Marco Rubio (R) when he resigns to become Secretary of State.

With President-Elect Donald Trump already selecting three US House members for appointments, including Florida Congressman Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) as National Security Advisor as well as Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) as the nation’s next Attorney General, none of the state’s 19 other Republican House members will be considered for the Senate appointment since the new House majority is expected to be small. Rather, topping the list of potential appointees appear to be Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Attorney General Ashley Moody, and former Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva. Gaetz immediately announced his resignation from the House after President-Elect Donald Trump’s controversial announcement that he has appointed Gaetz as AG. With another House member being chosen for the new Administration, and the majority not yet being completely cemented, the Republicans may be flirting with political “gimbal lock” that could potentially lead to the Democrats gaining control of the body. Much more to come on this developing situation.

Gov. DeSantis will fill the vacancy when Sen. Rubio resigns after the latter’s confirmation as Secretary of State. The new senator will then run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Sen. Rubio was re-elected to a third term in 2022.

Ohio: Ramaswamy Out of Senate Consideration — Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who President-Elect Trump appointed along with Elon Musk to head a new official government efficiency operation — known as DOGE, or the Department of Government Efficiency — confirmed that he is no longer under consideration to replace Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance in the US Senate.

Vance will resign from the Senate at some point before being sworn in as vice president on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 2025. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then appoint a replacement to serve the balance of the current term. Since Vance was elected in 2022, the new appointed senator will run to complete the current term in 2026, and then again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle.

House

CA-27: Democrat Whitesides Unseats Rep. Garcia — Ex-Virgin Atlantic CEO George Whitesides has defeated three-term Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) by a 51.3 – 48.7 percent margin in the state’s 27th District, which is fully contained in northern Los Angeles County. The projection was made Tuesday, and Rep. Garcia conceded the election.

The result is not particularly surprising. The California Citizens Redistricting Commission members increased the Democratic base in this district making it a D+8 as opposed to a D+5 under the previous map. The ratings are taken from the FiveThirtyEight data organization that profiles all 435 US House seats. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians ranked CA-27 as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.

Rep. Garcia first won a differently configured district, numbered CA-25, in a 2020 special election. He was re-elected in the former 25th later that year, and then won again in new District 27 two years ago. In all three previous elections, Garcia defeated former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D).

CA-47: Dems Hold Open Seat — Democratic state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) recorded a come-from-behind victory over former state assemblyman and 2022 congressional general election finalist Scott Baugh (R) in California’s open 47th District with a 50.9 – 49.1 percent victory margin according to a projection made Tuesday. Republicans had hopes of converting this seat from the Democratic column, but the presidential election year turnout model in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+6 was too much for Baugh to overcome.

The Min victory means only five uncalled races remain, four of which lie in California. The current House count now stands at 219R – 211D. The 47th District was open because incumbent Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked the seat to run unsuccessfully for the US Senate.

An Even Newer Senator
Will Emerge Post-Election

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024

Senate

Vice President-Elect and current Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance.

Even with 2024 Senate elections now projected as final, there will be another seat to fill soon.

Currently, with the Arizona race now called for Phoenix Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego (Pennsylvania may still go to a recount if the final margin falls to within half a percentage point), more Senate political intrigue will soon take center stage in the Buckeye State.

Because Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance has been elected vice president, an opening will occur once he resigns his current position prior to assuming his new national VP post. That means that Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will choose Sen. Vance’s replacement, and his decision may not only affect the Senate.

Ohio Gov. DeWine is serving his final two years as governor. When he first ran for his current post in 2018 a highly competitive Republican primary was forming with he, then-Secretary of State Jon Husted, and then-Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor. DeWine, the Ohio attorney general at the time after previously serving in the US Senate — as lieutenant governor, in the US House, and the state Senate — was favored by most to win the primary, but the outcome was not certain.

Just before the filing deadline, Husted approached the attorney general and offered to drop out of the governor’s race if DeWine would support him for lieutenant governor. In Ohio, the governor and lieutenant governor are individually elected. DeWine accepted and the two then ran successfully as a team.

Now we approach the beginning of the 2026 election cycle. Gov. DeWine cannot succeed himself and both Lt. Gov. Husted and Attorney General Dave Yost (R) have already announced their intentions to run for the state’s top position. Therefore, the new Senate appointment could be a very attractive option for one of the two. The other then benefits by having an easier run through the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Should such a deal emerge, and this assumes the governor doesn’t have other ideas for a replacement choice, a difficult intra-party battle could once again be avoided through a joint agreement.

One place the governor surely will not turn is to fill the Senate opening is the Ohio congressional delegation. With the Republican US House majority again becoming razor thin, the party leadership may not be able to relinquish a vote during the vacancy period associated with a special election to replace the chosen Ohio member. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the governor will choose a sitting House member as his appointed senator.

In terms of the Senate, the timing of the appointment will be interesting. With Republican Bernie Moreno unseating veteran Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) last Tuesday and Vance leaving the Senate, freshman Moreno will likely become Ohio’s senior senator upon being sworn into office.

Yet, the timing of the resignation and appointment could well decide whether Moreno or the appointed lawmaker is the senior senator. Should Vance resign before the Senate convenes on Jan. 3, 2025 and DeWine makes a quick appointment, Moreno and the Senate-designee would be sworn in together.

Should Sen. Vance resign after the Senate is sworn in — he will become vice president on Jan. 20, 2025 — Moreno would become senior senator upon taking office with the appointed senator taking office a few days later.

With the victories of Moreno and Republican senators-elect Tim Sheehy (MT), David McCormick (PA), and Jim Justice (WV), the GOP will have 52 senators plus the Vance vacancy. It is likely they will want to hit the ground running with a new Majority Leader since current Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is stepping down from his post. Therefore, having an additional vote could be important if the Senate wants to consider major legislation early in the new Congress, so DeWine will be encouraged to make a quick appointment.

Appointing a Senate replacement for Vice President-Elect Vance apparently features many facets. Therefore, not only the individual chosen, but also the timing of the appointment would affect not only the personnel hierarchy but early significant legislation, as well.

House Clinched For Now

Current US House Balance of Power

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024

House

Clinched: For Now — The projected US House victories of Arizona Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) and California Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona), along with GOP challenger Gabe Evans defeating Colorado Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thurston) has clinched 219 Republican seats in the new House of Representatives, one more than the bare majority. The margin, however, will have to be greater than two seats if the Republicans are to govern.

Rep. Ciscomani defeated former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) by what looks to be a similar margin in the 2022 election outcome between the two. Rep. Calvert successfully secured a 17th term last night, defeating the man he beat in the previous election, former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D). Evans, a Colorado state representative, Army veteran and former police officer, claims the politically marginal 8th District by just under one percentage point in a northern Centennial State seat that was designed to produce close elections.

With President-Elect Donald Trump announcing that he will appoint Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Mike Waltz (R-FL) as US Ambassador to the United Nations and National Security Advisor, respectively, the House Republican margin will be reduced by two seats after the designated members resign and before the respective governors schedule and implement a special election to replace the departing members.

As mentioned, Republicans have 219 called seats as compared to the Democrats’ 209. Currently, there are seven uncalled races, six of which lie in California. The other outstanding House contest is in Alaska where it is likely a Ranked Choice Voting round will be instituted since neither candidate has yet to exceed the 50 percent mark. Republican Mark Begich III leads Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) by 10,133 votes with an estimated 26 percent of the vote still uncounted. Begich commands 49.6 percent of the vote opposite Rep. Peltola’s 45.6 percent.

The seven uncalled races feature the Alaska at-large district and the races of Golden State Reps. Josh Harder (D-Truckee/ Stockton) in District 9; John Duarte (R-Modesto-13); Jim Costa (D-Fresno-21); Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita-27); Michelle Steel (R-Orange County; 45), and the open Orange County 47th CD.

All incumbents lead in the current counting with the exception of Rep. Garcia, who trails Democratic challenger George Whitesides by 4,730 votes with all but eight percent of the vote now tabulated, and Democratic Rep. Peltola as described above. In the open seat, Democratic state Sen. Dave Min runs ahead of Republican Scott Baugh by 2,713 votes with 86 percent counted. The 47th is open because Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked her position to run unsuccessfully for the US Senate earlier in the year.

In the remaining seven uncalled seats, Democrats lead in four and Republicans hold the advantage in three. Should the GOP hold onto the seats where they enjoy a current advantage, meaning California incumbents Duarte and Steel, and Alaska challenger Begich, the House count will rise to 222 Republicans. With the impending Stefanik and Waltz vacancies, the likely best case scenario is the House GOP Conference dropping to 220 until those seats are filled. At this point, however, none of the three Republican leads are secure.

New York Rep. Stefanik’s northern 21st District carries an R+17 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians rank the seat as the 66th most vulnerable district in the current Republican Conference. Rep. Waltz’s 6th District of Florida, which occupies part of the state’s Atlantic coast and houses the cities of Daytona Beach, Palm Coast, and DeLand, is an R+28 seat according to 538, while The Down Ballot group ranks the Waltz CD as the 118th most vulnerable seat in the conference.

Both districts should remain in Republican hands via special election, but we can expect at least a two month period when these seats will be vacant post member resignation.

It also remains to be seen if Trump chooses any more House members for Administration positions. Doing so could endanger his party’s tenuous House majority.

The close margin also limits the Senate appointment prospects for Govs. Mike DeWine (R-OH) and Ron DeSantis (R-FL), because they cannot risk further House seats if they were to choose a congressman. They will be tasked with appointing a replacement for Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance, Ohio’s current junior senator, and for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio should the widely reported stories prove true that Donald Trump will appoint him to be his secretary of state.

Final States Called for 2024; Gallego Wins Arizona; Five California Races Called; NE-2, OR-5 Winners

2024 Final Election Results / Click here for interactive map: CNN.com

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 11, 2024

National Vote

Final States Called: Presidential Map Complete — The final presidential map appears to be in the books with projections recorded for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. President-Elect Donald Trump clinched 312 electoral votes versus Vice President Kamala Harris’s 266 tally.

Trump won all seven battleground states, with North Carolina voting for him in all three of his elections. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin again voted for Trump after doing so in 2016 but choosing President Joe Biden in 2020. Nevada, which voted Democratic in both 2016 and 2020, switched to Trump in this election year.

In the two previous elections, the winning candidate, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, received 306 electoral votes. For the first time, it appears Trump will also win the national popular vote. Though he won the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton scored a popular vote victory.

Senate

Arizona: Rep. Gallego Wins — In what was predicted to be an easier road for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to replace retiring Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), the Grand Canyon State Senate race was finally projected over the weekend in the Democratic representative’s favor. With 89 percent of the Arizona vote tallied, Rep. Gallego tallies 49.7 percent support while his opponent, Republican former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake recorded a better than expected 48.2 percent. The raw number difference at this point in the counting is 44,882 votes.

With Republican victories over Senate Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and winning the open Democratic seat in West Virginia, the Republicans will lead the new Senate with a 53-47 majority.

House

California: Five CA Races Called, Seven More Outstanding — As we will remember, California is the state that requires the longest period to count their votes. Over the weekend, five Golden State congressional races were called. Included in the list of official winners are Reps. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove/Sacramento), David Valadao (R-Hanford), Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/Ventura), Jay Takano (D-Riverside), and Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano).

The California seats will go a long way toward determining a House majority. Still uncalled are the races for Reps. Josh Harder (D-Truckee/Stockton), John Duarte (R-Modesto), Jim Costa (D-Fresno), Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita), Ken Calvert (R-Corona), and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County). Also uncalled is Orange County’s open 47th District. All of these incumbents with the exception of Rep. Garcia lead in the counting process. The outstanding vote percentage range stretches from 14-38 percent.

A total of 10 races remain uncalled and they will determine the House majority. Of the 10, the Republican candidate leads in six races. To claim a bare 218-217 majority, the Republicans need win only two of the 10 uncalled contests.

NE-2: Rep. Bacon Declared a Winner — While the election night counting trended against veteran Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), the political overtime tally yielded the opposite result and the congressman has unofficially been re-elected to a fifth term. With 95 percent of the vote now counted, Bacon clinched victory with 51.2 percent support as compared to state Sen. Tony Vargas’ (D-Omaha) 48.8 percent. The percentages reveal a Bacon margin of 7,150 votes from the 307,342 counted ballots.

OR-5: Rep. Chavez-DeRemer (R) Unseated — Though just a few incumbents were defeated in the 2024 election, another loss was projected over the weekend. Oregon freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) failed in her campaign against state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) who won a plurality vote victory. With 90 percent of the vote counted, Bynum clinched the election with a 47.8 to 45.0 percent margin, or a vote spread of 10,454 votes from the 372,162 counted ballots.

In addition to Rep. Chavez-DeRemer, the losing incumbents were New York Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), Mark Molinaro (R-Red Hook), and Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse), along with Pennsylvanians Susan Wild (D-Allentown) and Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton).

Race Update

2024 Electoral College Map: 270toWin

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 8, 2024

2024 Election Results

The presidential Electoral College map has been declared, and former President Donald Trump has clinched 312 electoral votes, or 42 more than the minimum to win the national election. He still leads the national popular vote count by 4.5 million tallies with mainly just a large percentage of Arizona and California remaining to be fully counted.

Trump was successful in turning all seven key battleground states to his coalition. His competitive state sweep includes Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The total state count broke 31-20 (counting the District of Columbia) in favor of Trump, which is a gain of six states from his 2020 race with President Joe Biden.

With two more Senate races called, those in Nevada and Pennsylvania, the Republicans have secured 53 seats in the new Senate with only one contest, that in Arizona, still outstanding. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) was projected the winner in Nevada with a 47.9 – 46.5 percent spread over Afghan War veteran Sam Brown. In Pennsylvania, in what is perhaps the biggest upset in the Senate races, businessman David McCormick (R) has been declared the winner over Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). The margin of victory was 49.0 – 48.5 percent.

In the Arizona Senate contest, with 78 percent of the votes counted according to the Decision Desk HQ data website, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leads former news anchor and 2022 Arizona gubernatorial GOP nominee Kari Lake by 43,836 votes for a percentage breakdown of 49.8 – 48.1 percent in the congressman’s favor.

It appears that little change will occur in the House of Representatives for the next Congress, as the GOP is expected to hold its small majority and perhaps expand the margin by maybe two seats.

A total of only six seats at this writing are changing political party representation. The Democrats defeated three Republican incumbents in New York, while the GOP took down two Pennsylvania incumbents and secured an open Michigan Democratic seat.

California and Arizona feature nine of the 13 races yet to be called that will affect the partisan division. Of the 13, Democrats currently hold seven seats and Republicans, six. For the Democrats to secure just a one-seat majority, they would have to win all 13 House races currently not decided. At this point, the Republican candidate leads in six of the 13 contests.

Heading into the election, there were 55 open seats, but little change occurred in terms of party switching. Only six will be represented by a different party, and five of those are because of new redistricting maps in Alabama, Louisiana, and North Carolina. The only electoral pick-up at this point comes in Michigan’s 7th District where Republican former state Sen. Tom Barrett will replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin. The latter individual risked her House seat to run successfully for the US Senate.

Another open seat conversion could come in Orange County, California, as Republican Scott Baugh clings to a small lead in the open 47th District, the seat Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked to run unsuccessfully for US Senate.

Outstanding Seats

The races not yet called are:

AL-AK (Rep. Mary Peltola-D)
AZ-6 (Rep. Juan Ciscomani-R)
CA-9 (Rep. Josh Harder-D)
CA-13 (Rep. John Duarte-R)
CA-21 (Rep. Jim Costa-D)
CA-27 (Rep. Mike Garcia-R)
CA-41 (Rep. Ken Calvert-R)
CA-45 (Rep. Michelle Steel-R)
CA-47 (Open seat-D)
CA-49 (Rep. Mike Levin-D)
CO-8 (Rep. Yadira Caraveo-D)
OR-5 (Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer-R)
WA-3 (Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez-D)

Two other races are uncalled, both from California, but the leader has a large advantage that likely won’t change. They are: CA-6 (Rep. Ami Bera-D) and CA-39 (Rep. Jay Takano-D).