By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
Senate
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R)
With President-Elect Donald Trump already selecting three US House members for appointments, including Florida Congressman Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) as National Security Advisor as well as Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) as the nation’s next Attorney General, none of the state’s 19 other Republican House members will be considered for the Senate appointment since the new House majority is expected to be small. Rather, topping the list of potential appointees appear to be Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Attorney General Ashley Moody, and former Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva. Gaetz immediately announced his resignation from the House after President-Elect Donald Trump’s controversial announcement that he has appointed Gaetz as AG. With another House member being chosen for the new Administration, and the majority not yet being completely cemented, the Republicans may be flirting with political “gimbal lock” that could potentially lead to the Democrats gaining control of the body. Much more to come on this developing situation.
Gov. DeSantis will fill the vacancy when Sen. Rubio resigns after the latter’s confirmation as Secretary of State. The new senator will then run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Sen. Rubio was re-elected to a third term in 2022.
Ohio: Ramaswamy Out of Senate Consideration — Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who President-Elect Trump appointed along with Elon Musk to head a new official government efficiency operation — known as DOGE, or the Department of Government Efficiency — confirmed that he is no longer under consideration to replace Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance in the US Senate.
Vance will resign from the Senate at some point before being sworn in as vice president on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 2025. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then appoint a replacement to serve the balance of the current term. Since Vance was elected in 2022, the new appointed senator will run to complete the current term in 2026, and then again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle.
House
CA-27: Democrat Whitesides Unseats Rep. Garcia — Ex-Virgin Atlantic CEO George Whitesides has defeated three-term Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) by a 51.3 – 48.7 percent margin in the state’s 27th District, which is fully contained in northern Los Angeles County. The projection was made Tuesday, and Rep. Garcia conceded the election.
The result is not particularly surprising. The California Citizens Redistricting Commission members increased the Democratic base in this district making it a D+8 as opposed to a D+5 under the previous map. The ratings are taken from the FiveThirtyEight data organization that profiles all 435 US House seats. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians ranked CA-27 as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.
Rep. Garcia first won a differently configured district, numbered CA-25, in a 2020 special election. He was re-elected in the former 25th later that year, and then won again in new District 27 two years ago. In all three previous elections, Garcia defeated former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D).
CA-47: Dems Hold Open Seat — Democratic state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) recorded a come-from-behind victory over former state assemblyman and 2022 congressional general election finalist Scott Baugh (R) in California’s open 47th District with a 50.9 – 49.1 percent victory margin according to a projection made Tuesday. Republicans had hopes of converting this seat from the Democratic column, but the presidential election year turnout model in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+6 was too much for Baugh to overcome.
The Min victory means only five uncalled races remain, four of which lie in California. The current House count now stands at 219R – 211D. The 47th District was open because incumbent Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked the seat to run unsuccessfully for the US Senate.
