Current US House Balance of Power
By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024
House
Clinched: For Now — The projected US House victories of Arizona Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) and California Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona), along with GOP challenger Gabe Evans defeating Colorado Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thurston) has clinched 219 Republican seats in the new House of Representatives, one more than the bare majority. The margin, however, will have to be greater than two seats if the Republicans are to govern.
Rep. Ciscomani defeated former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) by what looks to be a similar margin in the 2022 election outcome between the two. Rep. Calvert successfully secured a 17th term last night, defeating the man he beat in the previous election, former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D). Evans, a Colorado state representative, Army veteran and former police officer, claims the politically marginal 8th District by just under one percentage point in a northern Centennial State seat that was designed to produce close elections.
With President-Elect Donald Trump announcing that he will appoint Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Mike Waltz (R-FL) as US Ambassador to the United Nations and National Security Advisor, respectively, the House Republican margin will be reduced by two seats after the designated members resign and before the respective governors schedule and implement a special election to replace the departing members.
As mentioned, Republicans have 219 called seats as compared to the Democrats’ 209. Currently, there are seven uncalled races, six of which lie in California. The other outstanding House contest is in Alaska where it is likely a Ranked Choice Voting round will be instituted since neither candidate has yet to exceed the 50 percent mark. Republican Mark Begich III leads Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) by 10,133 votes with an estimated 26 percent of the vote still uncounted. Begich commands 49.6 percent of the vote opposite Rep. Peltola’s 45.6 percent.
The seven uncalled races feature the Alaska at-large district and the races of Golden State Reps. Josh Harder (D-Truckee/ Stockton) in District 9; John Duarte (R-Modesto-13); Jim Costa (D-Fresno-21); Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita-27); Michelle Steel (R-Orange County; 45), and the open Orange County 47th CD.
All incumbents lead in the current counting with the exception of Rep. Garcia, who trails Democratic challenger George Whitesides by 4,730 votes with all but eight percent of the vote now tabulated, and Democratic Rep. Peltola as described above. In the open seat, Democratic state Sen. Dave Min runs ahead of Republican Scott Baugh by 2,713 votes with 86 percent counted. The 47th is open because Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked her position to run unsuccessfully for the US Senate earlier in the year.
In the remaining seven uncalled seats, Democrats lead in four and Republicans hold the advantage in three. Should the GOP hold onto the seats where they enjoy a current advantage, meaning California incumbents Duarte and Steel, and Alaska challenger Begich, the House count will rise to 222 Republicans. With the impending Stefanik and Waltz vacancies, the likely best case scenario is the House GOP Conference dropping to 220 until those seats are filled. At this point, however, none of the three Republican leads are secure.
New York Rep. Stefanik’s northern 21st District carries an R+17 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians rank the seat as the 66th most vulnerable district in the current Republican Conference. Rep. Waltz’s 6th District of Florida, which occupies part of the state’s Atlantic coast and houses the cities of Daytona Beach, Palm Coast, and DeLand, is an R+28 seat according to 538, while The Down Ballot group ranks the Waltz CD as the 118th most vulnerable seat in the conference.
Both districts should remain in Republican hands via special election, but we can expect at least a two month period when these seats will be vacant post member resignation.
It also remains to be seen if Trump chooses any more House members for Administration positions. Doing so could endanger his party’s tenuous House majority.
The close margin also limits the Senate appointment prospects for Govs. Mike DeWine (R-OH) and Ron DeSantis (R-FL), because they cannot risk further House seats if they were to choose a congressman. They will be tasked with appointing a replacement for Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance, Ohio’s current junior senator, and for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio should the widely reported stories prove true that Donald Trump will appoint him to be his secretary of state.
