Monthly Archives: October 2023

Redistricting Update – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2023

House

A look at how things might play out in key states in the redistricting tug of wars

Six States: Both Parties Affected — Court rulings in two congressional redistricting states will likely be handed down within the next few days, and another’s legislature will soon begin to redraw their current boundaries.

The Alabama special master is mandated to report to the three-judge panel that ordered the redraw during next month’s first week. The New Mexico state Supreme Court directed the assigned lower court in Roswell to report its decision during the first few days of October. The North Carolina legislature is going into special session during the first week of October to redraw their maps.

Today, we look at the situation in the first six states that may see another round of congressional redistricting, those from Alabama through New York. Tomorrow, we will look at the remaining five domains from North Carolina through Wisconsin.

• Alabama: The US Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the federal three-judge panel’s ruling that disqualified the legislature’s map means that the court-appointed special master will deliver a final map to the court on or around Oct. 3. The released three public options are similar.

All would pair Reps. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in one southern Alabama district that would stretch the width of the state from Mississippi to Florida. A new majority minority 2nd District would then be created and anchored in Montgomery County. The end result will be a net gain of one seat for the Democrats.

• Florida: The lower court ruling declaring the Florida congressional map unconstitutional means the state will likely be forced to redraw the map at some future point. The state and the plaintiffs agreed the redraw would only affect the north Florida sector and concentrate on whether the former 5th CD, that previously stretched from Tallahassee to Jacksonville, will be reconstructed in some manner. The state is appealing the ruling, so we can count on seeing significant time elapse before this issue is decided.

The members’ districts most affected would be Reps. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City), Kat Cammack (R-Gainesville), and Aaron Bean (R-Fernandina Beach). The Florida primary is not until Aug. 20, 2024, so enough time remains for the map to be redrawn before the next election. Other regional members could also be tangentially affected. The concluding outcome would likely be a net gain of one seat for the Democrats.

• Georgia: A lawsuit challenging the state’s 6th District (Rep. Richard McCormick; R-Suwanee), claims that the Atlanta metro area has been gerrymandered to deny African Americans another seat. This case will require very significant time to maneuver through the entire legal process. Therefore, it is probable that any final judicial decision will not come before the 2024 election.

• Louisiana: The Louisiana situation is similar to that of Alabama’s. SCOTUS’ Alabama decision could force a redraw here, too, but no action has yet been taken. The state elections, including the governor’s office, are scheduled for Oct. 14, with a runoff on Nov. 18 for the undecided races. Candidates securing majority support are elected outright in the first election. Therefore, no redistricting action will occur until well after the state elections are concluded, and likely after the first of next year.

Considering Louisiana’s unique election system that holds its first regular vote concurrent with the general election, plenty of time remains for a court to force a legislative redraw of the congressional lines, or eventually appoint a special master to make the changes. The most apparent vulnerable reconfiguration member is Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start). Should a redraw occur before the 2024 election, the Democrats would likely gain one seat in this delegation.

• New Mexico: Republicans have filed suit here, claiming the map is a partisan gerrymander. The New Mexico state Supreme Court has directed the lower court in Roswell to render a decision this week — the first week of October. The ruling’s losing party will undoubtedly appeal to the state Supreme Court. If they decide a redraw is in order, expect it to happen before the 2024 election.

The New Mexico primary is scheduled for June 4, 2024, with a yet to be determined candidate filing deadline, though it will be sometime in February. A redraw would give the Republicans a better chance of regaining the state’s southern congressional seat.

• New York: Currently, the New York map is an interim court draw that the legislature, with input from an appointed commission, can replace. It is expected the Democratic legislature will make a move to draw a more favorable map. Last time, the legislature attempted to draw a 22D-4R map, but even the Democratic controlled courts ruled that such was a partisan gerrymander. Therefore, when they make boundary changes, the map drawers will likely be more cognizant of going too far since Republicans are sure to repeal.

Still, Democrats could make significant gains under a new map. Even under the current plan, a two-seat gain appears to be a minimum. It would not be surprising to see the Democrats convert three or four seats here in the coming 2024 election.

RFK Jr. to Announce Independent Run; Sen. Feinstein Replacement Options; Menendez’s Re-Election Chances

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 2, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

RFK Jr.: To Announce Independent Run — Media reports are indicating that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will end his Democratic nomination challenge to President Joe Biden and instead launch a general election campaign. It is unclear whether he will run as an Independent or seek the nomination of an existing minor party.

Kennedy came to the realization that the Democratic Party establishment was going to block him from delegate acquisition, which gave him no hope of mounting even a competitive bid against President Biden. Kennedy’s name on the ballot could prove more detrimental to President Biden, though he will also take votes from former President Donald Trump.

The other question that Kennedy must answer is whether his candidacy will simply attempt to affect the general election outcome, or does he strive for a national victory. If the latter, he may have a difficult time in qualifying for the ballot in all 50 states. In any event, Kennedy’s appearance on the general election ballot can certainly change the course of the presidential campaign.

Senate

California: Sen. Feinstein Replacement Options — Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-CA) death on Friday means California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will apparently soon appoint an interim replacement to serve the balance of the current senatorial term. Earlier in the year, Gov. Newsom indicated that he would appoint a black woman to the seat if the position opened. This seemed to indicate that Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) would have the inside track. The two are close and both hail from the San Francisco Bay Area.

Now, however, Gov. Newsom — quite correctly — is saying he will not appoint one of the open seat Senate candidates who are currently vying for one of the two general election qualifying positions that will be determined in the March 5 Super Tuesday all-party jungle primary. Since Rep. Lee is a candidate, it appears she is no longer under consideration for the appointment. Gov. Newsom said he does not want to give one of the candidates, who are all working hard, an unfair advantage in the open primary by appointing one of them to the seat.

Many names are under consideration, but it is unlikely individuals such as Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles) and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D) would give up their current positions to serve in the Senate for just a year. Therefore, Newsom could turn to a senior individual who has served either in elective office or a key appointed position. One such individual who might be considered is retired US Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). Should Newsom go in that direction, and if she would agree to serve again, he would likely receive no objection since he can justify the appointment arguing the statewide voters elected her four times and she could “hit the ground running,” due to her Senate experience. Sen. Boxer served from 1997-2015, after winning election to five terms in the House.

New Jersey: First Post Indictment Poll — Public Policy Polling quickly jumped into the field to test the New Jersey electorate right after Sen. Bob Menendez was indicated. The PPP survey, for the VoteVets Action Fund (Sept. 26-27; 565 New Jersey voters; multiple sampling techniques), explored several potential general election scenarios, none of which looked favorable for the incumbent.

Against a generic Republican opponent, the senator would trail 42-20 percent. If Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who has already announced his candidacy, were paired with the generic Republican, he would lead 44-32 percent. In a hypothetical match between Kim and former Gov. Chris Christie (R), though the latter man has already said he will not run for the Senate, the former would lead 46-20 percent. Christie, however, would nip Sen. Menendez 27-24 percent. PPP did not test any Democratic primary pairings, which is the more definitive battle.