Tag Archives: TX-32

Rep. Issa to Remain in California

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 8, 2025

US House

California Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego)

There had been some speculation that veteran Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) was going to travel to Texas to seek re-election in the new TX-32 district since the California redistricting plan has turned his safely Republican CD into one that is highly competitive.

At the end of last week, Rep. Issa announced that he will seek re-election and will do so in CA-48 despite the district now having a Democratic tilt.

The US Supreme Court approved the new Texas map late last week and declared that the 2025 plan will be in place for the 2026 election. The decision also affects the new California map since the pending lawsuits in both cases involved racial gerrymandering claims, meaning the voter-approved new Golden State map will almost assuredly be in place for the 2026 elections.

The justices timed their ruling to allow candidate filing in Texas to conclude today. Several key political determinations dominoes will fall, the most significant of which revolves around Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s (D-Dallas) decision to file for the Senate or House.

In a related choice, Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth), who sees his 33rd District now located wholly within Dallas County thus eliminating his Tarrant County political base, says he will file in Crockett’s District 30 if she announces for the Senate. If Crockett decides to remain in the House, Veasey will either file for District 33 or enter the race for Tarrant County Judge (labeled County Executive in other places).

Freshman Rep. Julie Johnson’s (D-Farmers Branch) 32nd District is transformed into a Republican seat that stretches into East Texas. Her plan is to reportedly file in District 33.

While California’s candidate filing will remain open until March 6 (March 11 if the incumbent in a particular race does not file), individuals are making decisions about where to seek election; hence, Rep. Issa’s plan to run in new District 48.

Under the 2021 California Citizens Redistricting Commission map that the legislature and voters replaced this year, Rep. Issa’s San Diego County-anchored 48th District held a partisan lean (according to the Dave’s Redistricting App organization) of 58.3R – 39.8D. Under the new plan, that ratio moves to 50.6D – 48.7R, a net swing of 20.5 data points in the Democrats’ favor.

Though this makes re-election much more difficult for Rep. Issa, he still has a fighting chance of defeating a Democrat in the general election. Several California districts with more lopsided Democratic partisan leans have elected Republican Representatives. Therefore, this seat likely moves from a Safe Republican rating to Toss-Up.

In comments posted in an X tweet, Rep. Issa also made some suggestions about other members in his delegation, most specifically the proposed pairing between Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra). At this point, both have announced for new District 40 (DRA partisan lean: 57.0R – 42.3D), but Rep. Issa was suggesting that Rep. Kim instead run in new District 45 where she would challenge freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange County).

From a Republican Party standpoint, such a move would make sense. Ironically, the state’s two most vulnerable Democratic members, the pair who won the closest US House elections in 2024 — Reps. Adam Gray (D-Merced; winning by 187 votes) and Tran (winning by 653 votes) — actually see their Democratic partisan ratios surprisingly reduced under the new map.

In District 13, Rep. Gray views a partisan swing that moves a net 4.3 data points in the Republicans’ favor, making the partisan lean, according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, of 52.4D – 46.9R. In 2022, Republican John Duarte won the 13th District that featured a partisan lean of 54.0D – 44.2R.

In southern California’s 45th CD, former Rep. Michelle Steel (R), who earlier announced that she will not return to run again in 2026, carried the seat in 2022 with a DRA partisan lean of 52.2D – 45.9R. The new 45th posts a 51.7D – 47.5R partisan lean, again suggesting that a Republican general election finalist will be competitive.

With the Supreme Court making the political situations clearer in at least the two most populous states, final 2026 electoral decisions in California and Texas can now be made with all candidates confident of which map will be in place. We will carry further analysis of the Texas situation after candidate filing closes later today.

The US HOUSE ReMatches

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 9, 2021 — Earlier this week, former Maine congressman, Bruce Poliquin (R), who lost his seat in 2018 through the Ranked Choice Voting system after placing first in the original count, declared his 2022 candidacy for a re-match with Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston).

As we look toward the ’22 US House cycle, we see 13 close 2020 contenders (where the winner scored 52 percent or less) who have already announced that they will return for another run. Including Poliquin, only two of the 13 are former incumbents.

Below is a synopsis of the re-match races to date:

CA-25: Rep. Mike Garcia (R)

Former state Assemblywoman Christie Smith (D) has lost twice to Rep. Garcia but has announced a return for a third run after originally saying she would attempt to regain her seat in the state legislature. She will have competition in the June 7 jungle primary, however. Six other Democrats have declared their candidacies, and even resigned Rep. Katie Hill (D) has made noises about running again.

Redistricting will be a major factor in the outcome. The last race was decided by just 333 votes, so how the 2022 race forms next year is extremely uncertain.

CA-48: Rep. Michelle Steel (R)

Steel, a former Orange County Supervisor, defeated freshman Rep. Harley Rouda (D), 51-49 percent, in a coastal seat that had traditionally been strongly Republican. Redistricting will of course affect this district, like all others in southern California with the state losing a congressional seat for the first time in apportionment history, but Rouda is not waiting to view new boundary lines. He has already announced his return as a 2022 congressional candidate.

GA-7: Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D)

Expect redistricting to change this marginal political district in a major way. With Democrats converting two Atlanta suburban seats in consecutive elections, Republican map drawers are likely to concede one of the two CDs to the Democrats while making the other much better for a GOP candidate.

It is likely that Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) will be the Democratic beneficiary of the draw, while freshman Rep. Bourdeaux will probably be looking at a much more difficult new district for her to win. Republican nominee Rich McCormick, who lost here 51-49 percent in 2020, looks to be in strong position if the redistricting strategy outlined above is adopted.

ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D)

As mentioned above, former Rep. Poliquin is returning for a re-match after sitting out the 2020 cycle. Redistricting probably won’t change the 2nd District much since Maine only has two CDs. Ranked Choice Voting will still be an issue for the Republicans here, but the GOP is better equipped to deal with it in 2022. This will be a highly competitive campaign in one of just seven districts that supported former President Trump and elected a Democrat to the US House.

MN-2: Rep. Angie Craig (D)

Marine Corps Reserve officer Tyler Kistner (R) held Rep. Craig to only a 48-46 percent win last November and returns for a re-match. This is another situation where redistricting will play a major role. It is more than likely the split legislature will mold the two politically marginal adjacent southern Minnesota districts into safer seats for both Craig and Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Blue Earth/Rochester). Such a draw would make Kistner’s 2022 task much more difficult.

NH-1: Rep. Chris Pappas (D)

State Republican leaders, who now control both houses of the New Hampshire legislature, have already indicated they plan on making the state’s 1st District, which defeated more incumbents than any other seat in the country during the previous decade, into a better Republican seat while conceding the 2nd District to Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Concord). This does not bode well for Rep. Pappas, who defeated businessman Matt Mowers (R), 51-46 percent, in 2020.

Pappas has already said he is looking to enter what could be an open governor’s race if his congressional seat becomes more Republican. Last week, Mowers confirmed that he is planning to run again.

NJ-7: Rep. Tom Malinowski (D)

Former state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. (R), who came within two points of unseating Rep. Malinowski last November, will return. New Jersey redistricts by commission with five members of each party holding seats. A tie breaker is normally appointed to be the deciding vote. Democrats will want this seat to swing more their way, with Republican commissioners wanting likewise from their perspective. Another competitive race is forecast, but redistricting will likely determine the partisan tilt.
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Sights on 2022: The 52 Percent Club

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 12, 2020 — The 2020 election isn’t officially even in the books yet, but we do have enough info to surmise who might be some of the most competitive early targets in the 2022 elections.

Looking at the non-incoming freshmen House members, we see 24 Democratic and four Republican districts where the incumbent recorded 52 percent of the vote and below. Such a re-election performance paints a target on these members in anticipation of the next campaign.

Redistricting, however, will be a wild card for many members and potential candidates, and some who found themselves locked in close 2020 contests could greatly benefit from a re-draw. Of the 24 Democrats in this category, 10 are located in states that are positioned to lose congressional representation, which could possibly make the affected districts even more vulnerable.

Conversely, three of these incumbents are in states projected to gain additional seats, thus likely making it easier for them to improve their political standing.

Only four veteran Republicans found themselves falling in the 52 percent or below group, and two of the four are from states that will lose congressional representation.

Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are expected to lose seats while look to gain one apiece. Texas could add as many as three to its delegation.

Below are the affected members who would become potential early 2022 cycle political targets:

DEMOCRATS

STATE-DISTRICT	WINNER	PERCENT
AZ-1	Tom O’Halleran (D)	51.7
IA-3	Rep. Cindy Axne (D)	49.0
IL-14	Rep. Lauren Underwood (D)	50.4
IL-17	Rep. Cheri Bustos (D)	51.9
MI-11	Rep. Haley Stevens (D)	50.2
MI-8	Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D)	50.9
MN-2	Rep. Angie Craig (D)	48.2
NH-1	Rep. Chris Pappas (D)	51.4
NJ-7	Rep. Tom Malinowski (D)	51.5
NV-3	Rep. Susie Lee (D)	49.2
NV-4	Rep. Steven Horsford (D)	50.8
NY-19	Rep Antonio Delgado (D)	50.3
NY-4	Rep. Kathleen Rice (D)	52.0
OR-4	Rep. Peter DeFazio (D)	51.7
OR-5	Rep. Kurt Schrader (D)	52.0
PA-17	Rep. Conor Lamb (D)	51.1
PA-8	Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)	51.7
PA-7	Rep. Susan Wild (D)	51.8
TX-7	Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D)	50.7
TX-32	Rep. Colin Allred (D)	51.9
VA-7	Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D)	51.0
VA-2	Rep. Elaine Luria (D)	51.6
WA-8	Rep. Kim Schrier (D)	51.8
WI-3	Rep. Ron Kind (D)	51.5

GOP

STATE-DISTRICT	WINNER	PERCENT
MN-1	Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R)	48.6
NE-2	Rep. Don Bacon (R)	50.9
OH-1	Rep. Steve Chabot (R)	51.9
MO-2	Rep. Ann Wagner (R)	52.0

Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky
and Texas Primary Results

By Jim Ellis

May 23, 2018 — Yesterday, voters in four states cast their votes in nomination elections. Today, we look at the results from Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, and Texas.

ARKANSAS

Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) easily won re-nomination for a second term with 70 percent of the vote and now faces former non-profit executive Jared Henderson (D) in what is expected to be an easy run for re-election.

The most significant Arkansas race is in Little Rock’s 2nd Congressional District. With the Democratic establishment’s backing, state Rep. Clarke Tucker (D-Little Rock) scored an outright victory last night, capturing 59 percent against three Democratic opponents. By earning a majority of the total votes cast, Tucker avoids a run-off and automatically advances into the general election. He will now face two-term US Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) in November.

GEORGIA

Gov. Nathan Deal (R) is ineligible to seek re-election, so the open governor’s race tops the election card this year.

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