Tag Archives: Sen. Tim Scott

Scott Tops Haley in South Carolina;
A GOP Battle in Florida; Steny Hoyer Challenged; LDP Endorses Wilson

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 28, 2023

President

(R-SC)

South Carolina: Sen. Scott Again Tops Ex-Gov. Haley — The American Greatness political organization, loosely affiliated with former President Donald Trump, conducted a survey of the critically important South Carolina Republican primary (National Research, Inc.; June 19-21; 500 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters) and again finds Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), who the recent NBC national poll now detects moving into third place on the Republican primary ballot test, topping former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Former President Donald Trump maintains a substantial lead with 41 percent support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is second with 18 percent. Sen. Scott and ex-Gov. Haley follow with 10 and eight percent, respectively, before their home state electorate. No one else even reaches the four percent benchmark. The South Carolina Republican primary is scheduled for Feb. 24, the fourth state to vote on the GOP calendar.

House

FL-16: Rep. Buchanan to Face DeSantis Appointee — Private school superintendent Eddie Speir (R), who Gov. DeSantis appointed to a board that oversees New College, a public liberal arts college in Sarasota, Florida, announced that he will challenge veteran Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) in next year’s GOP primary. After Rep. Buchanan lost his bid to become House Ways & Means Committee chairman, there were rumors floating that he would resign his seat. Therefore, Buchanan remains a retirement prospect. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-16 as R+13, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 55.2R – 42.7D partisan lean.

MD-5: Democratic Challenger for Rep. Hoyer — On the heels of former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville) hinting he will seek re-election to a 23rd term in 2024, a credible Democratic primary challenger appears on the scene. Prince Georges County Environmental Director Andrea Crooms announced her candidacy Monday, becoming the candidate with the most potential of attracting support. It is highly doubtful, however, that she can unseat Hoyer, who has represented the southern Maryland region since winning a special congressional election in 1981.

It is clear the Democratic primary will be the significant election. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization score of D+28, and a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation of 60.9D – 36.4R, the GOP has little chance of making a serious run here in the general election.

Governor

Louisiana: Democratic Party Officially Endorses — With the open Bayou State governor’s race beginning to attract attention, the Louisiana Democratic Party has already gone on record with endorsement support for the leading party contender long before candidate filing closes on Aug. 10, 2023. The LDP now officially endorses former Secretary of Transportation Shawn Wilson, joining outgoing Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) who also publicly supports Wilson as his successor. Gov. Edwards is ineligible to seek a third term under Louisiana election law.

The Louisiana system features an all-party jungle primary on Oct. 14 of this year. If no candidate receives majority support, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on Nov. 18. The leading Republicans are attorney general and former Congressman Jeff Landry and state Treasurer John Schroder. With eight candidates already actively running, the chances of moving to a runoff are extremely high.

Sen. Scott Shows Movement; Biden vs. GOP Candidates; Tight Race in Michigan; Alabama Redistricting

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 20, 2023

President

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R)

Sen. Tim Scott: Showing Movement — Last week we saw New Hampshire polls found Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) moving into either third place on the GOP ballot test question, or tying for that same position. Now, we see a new national poll showing similar upward mobility for the South Carolina senator.

YouGov America, polling for the University of Massachusetts (May 31-June 8; 1,133 US adults; online), finds former President Donald Trump again leading among national Republicans with a 56 percent preference figure while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trails with 26 percent support. Sen. Scott, though posting only four percent, moves past the other second tier candidates for third place.

The general election pairings also show him highly competitive with President Joe Biden. While Biden leads former President Donald Trump 43-40 percent in the national popular vote question and posts a 41-37 percent margin against Gov. DeSantis, Sen. Scott falls into the same realm. Despite not being well known nationally, he actually polls the best against the president, trailing only 37-35 percent.

Michigan Poll: Highly Competitive Results — The new EPIC-MRA Michigan poll (June 8-14; 60 likely Michigan voters; live interview) again reveals a familiar pattern. That is, President Biden’s job approval rating is extremely low, yet he pulls even in the ballot test with both former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. The polling sample tilts slightly Republican because the black vote is under-represented by three points when compared to the US Census Michigan population figures.

While President Biden’s job approval ratio is a terrible 29:69 percent favorable to unfavorable (nine percent excellent; 20 percent pretty good; 25 percent just fair; 44 percent poor), he still pulls even with Trump in the Michigan ballot test at 44 percent apiece. When paired with Gov. DeSantis, the president trails by one point, 45-44 percent.

The EPIC poll obviously suggests that Michigan will be a battleground state in the presidential race, but most analysts are projecting it will remain in the Democratic column when the votes are ultimately counted.

Senate

Michigan: Poll Shows Tight Race — The aforementioned EPIC-MRA Michigan poll (see Michigan president above) also tested the impending open Wolverine State US Senate race. The pollsters pitted Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), the early favorite for the Democratic nomination, and retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig, potentially the most well known Republican. The ballot test revealed a tighter contest than expected with Rep. Slotkin holding only a 40-39 percent edge over retired Chief Craig. Both figures contain eight percent in the “lean” category for both Rep. Slotkin and Craig.

The Michigan race will likely move closer to the Democratic column as the year-long campaign evolves. There is a slight Republican skew in this polling sample as blacks are slightly under-represented. Both Rep. Slotkin and Craig are unknown to the majority of the respondent universe indicating that each will have to spend money to increase name identification. The seat is open because four-term incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring.

House

Alabama Redistricting: Court Determines Re-Mapping Calendar — After last week’s US Supreme Court’s ruling that invalidated the Alabama congressional map, the federal three judge panel assuming jurisdiction has sent the map back to the state legislature to begin the re-drawing process. SCOTUS agreed with the plaintiffs in the case that a second majority minority district can be drawn in the state. The current map yields a 6R-1D split.

The court is giving the legislature until July 21 to produce a new map for judicial review. If the legislature cannot complete the plan within that time frame, the court may step in and order a special master to manage the map drawing process.

SCOTUS will also rule on the North Carolina partisan gerrymandering and judicial power lawsuit before the end of June. That ruling could have an effect upon the Alabama case as it relates to judicial control over the redistricting process. Therefore, the situation could again change once the North Carolina ruling is made public.

Miami Mayor Files Presidential Committee; Presidential Candidate Favorable vs. Unfavorable Ratings;
A 4th Dem Enters California Race; Montana Gov’s Primary Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 16, 2023

President

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez (R)

Francis Suarez: Miami Mayor Files Presidential Committee — As has been expected for some time, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez filed a presidential committee mid week with the Federal Election Commission and becomes now the tenth Republican candidate. Obviously a long shot who may be positioning himself as a potential vice presidential pick, Mayor Suarez would be attractive to Republicans as a candidate with potential national appeal to the Hispanic community.

YouGov Economist Poll: Mixed Results — The YouGov international online polling firm again conducted one of their extensive periodic surveys for The Economist publication (June 10-13; 1,500 US adults; online), and though a majority of respondents firmly believe former President Donald Trump should have been indicted over the classified documents issue, he would surprisingly still lead President Joe Biden by a percentage point in the national popular vote.

The respondents largely sour over the group of 11 tested potential presidential candidates, however. Only Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (49:30 percent favorable to unfavorable), Sen. Tim Scott (33:25 percent), and Vivek Ramaswamy (26:19 percent) found themselves with positive ratings.

Former Governor Chris Christie had the highest negative rating at 27:51 percent favorable to unfavorable. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence (36:53 percent), Sen. Joe Manchin (26:37 percent), ex-President Trump (43:53 percent), President Biden (45:52 percent), Marianne Williamson (19:24 percent), Gov. Ron DeSantis (41:46 percent), and former Ambassador Nikki Haley (33:34 percent) all followed in the upside-down category.

House

CA-45: Rep. Steel Draws Fourth Dem Challenger — Attorney Jimmy Pham became the fourth Democratic candidate to enter the 2024 congressional race hoping to challenge two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+5.

In addition to Pham, Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen, and attorneys Cheyenne Hunt and Aditya Pai are announced candidates. Community College Trustee Jay Chen, who held Rep. Steel to a 52-48 percent victory in 2022, is a potential re-match contender but has yet to make his 2024 political plans known.

Expect this to be a top Democratic target race. The 45th is one of four California Democratic seats that a Republican represents.

Governor

Montana: Gov. Gianforte to Face Primary Challenge — Without articulating a particular criticism against Gov. Greg Gianforte (R), state Rep. Tanner Smith (R-Lakeside) has announced that he will launch a Republican gubernatorial primary challenge.

Gov. Gianforte, whose job approval ratings are high, does not appear to be vulnerable to any Republican primary challenger. At this point, he would also be rated as a prohibitive favorite to win a second full term in the 2024 general election. The Montana primary is scheduled for June 4, 2024.

Scott Announces Presidential Run; DeSantis, Burgum Set to Announce; Michigan Senate Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 22, 2023

President

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R)

Sen. Tim Scott: Formally Announces — As predicted last week, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott on Saturday declared his presidential candidacy. At this point, former President Donald Trump, former UN Ambassador and ex-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, retired Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and now Sen. Scott are the officially announced Republican candidates.

As we have previously said, the higher the number of second-tier candidates in the Republican presidential race, the stronger former President Trump will become. Typically, a crowded field favors the contender who has the strongest political base. In this case, such candidate is clearly Donald Trump.

Gov. Ron DeSantis: Set to Announce — Reports nationally and coming from Florida suggest that Gov. Ron DeSantis will formally announce his presidential campaign this week. His chief objective will be to make the race a two-way contest between he and former President Donald Trump. Another big test will be to exceed expectations in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, places that require the personal touch and strong ground operations. It is unclear just how strong the DeSantis campaign will be in the organization aspect of the campaign, but the governor’s campaign could be short lived if he fails to perform well in the early states.

Gov. Doug Burgum: To Declare Next Week — In what will be a long-shot presidential candidacy, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is also reportedly going to announce his first national campaign this week. While he won’t likely be a factor in the national scope of the campaign, he could do better than expected in Iowa, still the first state on the Republican calendar.

Historically, the Iowa voter has preferred Midwestern candidates. With Gov. Burgum coming from the business community and managing an agricultural state, such a combination could give him a basis to attract a reasonable number of votes. His bump, should it occur, won’t likely last long, but the Iowa Caucuses are a place where the seeds could be sown for Gov. Burgum to become a surprise candidate.

Senate

Michigan: State School Board President Files Senate Committee — As has been expected for some time, Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh (D) filed a US Senate committee late last week with the Federal Election Commission. Potentially, we could see three African-American candidates in the open Senate Democratic primary. Pugh would join deputy director of the state Department of Transportation and ex-state Rep. Leslie Love, who has filed an exploratory committee, and potentially actor Hill Harper.

If all three eventually enter the race, the beneficiary would be US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), who is viewed as the early favorite to win the seat. If the state’s substantial black vote is split three ways, it is probable that Rep. Slotkin’s hand would be strengthened even further. It remains to be seen exactly who will formally enter the open race. Incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is not seeking a fourth term.

RFK Jr. Formally Announces Run for President; Trump Leads in NH, SC Polls; New Entry in Ohio Senate Race;
House Candidate Activity

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 21, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Formally Announces — The son of former US Attorney General and New York Sen. Robert F. Kennedy officially entered the Democratic presidential primary yesterday. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gained national attention for his anti-vaccination stance but is unlikely to be a serious threat to President Biden. He could, however, do some damage in New Hampshire and Georgia if the two states don’t adhere to the Democratic National Committee primary schedule, thus likely forcing the president to skip those primaries.

The adjusted DNC schedule bounces New Hampshire from the first primary position and adds Georgia to the pre-Super Tuesday calendar, among other changes. New Hampshire will not easily relinquish its traditional position — and doesn’t have to, because the individual states, and not the political parties, control their own primary election schedule. The Georgia legislature and governor may not approve the schedule because doing so would force the state to finance two primaries, since the Republicans are not adding the Peach State to the pre-Super Tuesday schedule.

New Hampshire: Trump Leading in New Poll — A new University of New Hampshire Granite State poll (April 13-17; 818 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; online) sees former President Donald Trump continuing to lead the proposed Republican presidential primary field, while home state Gov. Chris Sununu breaks into double-digits ascending to third place. Trump would lead Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Gov. Sununu, 42-22-12 percent. No other potential candidate reaches five percent support. On the Republican side, New Hampshire will remain as the first-in-the-nation primary.

South Carolina: Trump Leads Home State Opponents — The recently released National Public Affairs survey (April 11-14; 538 registered South Carolina voters likely to vote in the Republican primary; online & text) finds former President Trump again topping the Palmetto State field with 40 percent of the vote, a full 20 points ahead of DeSantis.

South Carolina candidates Nikki Haley (the state’s former governor), and Sen. Tim Scott, who has filed a presidential exploratory committee, would command 18 and 16 percent, respectively. Though the two still trail badly in their home state, the NPA ballot test posts the South Carolina pair to their strongest showing to date.

Senate

Ohio: Businessman Moreno Joins GOP Race — Buckeye State businessman Bernie Moreno (R), who for a short time was in the 2022 Senate race but dropped out before the first ballots were cast, announced that he will join the 2024 Republican primary with the hope of challenging Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in the general election. While a candidate in the previous campaign, Moreno spent $4 million of his personal fortune on his political effort.

Currently in the race is state senator and 2022 US Senate candidate Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) who has already invested $3 million of his own money into the ’24 Senate race. Thus, it appears we have two major self-funders set to battle each other for what should be a valuable GOP nomination in what portends to be one of the hottest general election Senate races in the country.

House

IL-7: Exploratory Committee Filed: — Veteran Illinois Congressman Danny Davis (D-Chicago) was first elected to the US House in 1996 after serving both as a Cook County Commissioner and on the Chicago City Council. Though his district is heavily Democratic and safe from a Republican opponent, Rep. Davis did have a relatively close call in the 2022 Democratic primary when he defeated community organizer Kina Collins by a 52-45 percent count. In 2020, he defeated the same opponent with a 60-13 percent victory margin.

At the age of 81, he is considered a retirement prospect for the 2024 election. That being the case, Chicago City treasurer and former state Rep. Melissa Conyears-Ervin (D) formed a congressional exploratory committee for the 7th District. This is a March 2024 Democratic primary campaign to watch.

IN-3: Former Rep. Stutzman Launches Comeback — Indiana Republican Marlin Stutzman, who served three terms in the US House before losing the 2016 US Senate Republican primary to then-Congressman Todd Young, announced yesterday that he will attempt to reclaim the seat he vacated eight years ago. The race, however, will be no “gimme” for the former congressman and ex-state legislator. Already announced as candidates are state Sen. Andy Zay (R-Huntington) and former Circuit Judge Wendy Davis, among others.

In a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates R+34, the successor to Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City), who is now running for Senate, will be decided in the May 2024 Republican primary.

MI-10: Another Democrat Surfaces to Challenge Rep. James — A third Democratic candidate came forward to compete for the party nomination to challenge Michigan freshman US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills). Emily Busch, a gun control activist and defeated state representative candidate, said she will run for Congress next year. Already in the Democratic primary are attorney Brian Jaye and financial consultant and ex-state representative candidate Diane Young.

It is likely that 2022 nominee and former judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga will return for a re-match. He will be heavily favored in the Democratic primary, having lost to James by just a half-percentage point. The 10th District 2024 campaign again promises to be highly competitive and is a national Democratic congressional target.

Pompeo Declines to Run;
2022 Candidate Won’t Return;
NY House Races

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 18, 2023

President

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo

Mike Pompeo: Won’t Run; Youngkin Now on Hold — Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R) announced Friday that he will not join the 2024 presidential field. Only a long-shot victory path existed for the former Secretary, CIA Director, and US representative from Kansas. Additionally, according to a New York Times report, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has put his fledgling presidential effort on hold and is now apparently unlikely to enter the race.

To date, the only announced candidates are former President Donald Trump, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R), and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott has filed a presidential exploratory committee. While President Biden has repeatedly said he “plans to run again,” he has still not made a formal announcement. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and ex-Vice President Mike Pence are both expected to join the campaign in the next few weeks.

Senate

Arizona: ’22 Candidate Lamon Won’t Return — Former solar company CEO Jim Lamon, who placed second in the 2022 US Senate race with 28.1 percent of the Republican primary vote, says he will not return for another run this year and is instead endorsing Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R). Several other Republicans, including 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and senatorial nominee Blake Masters, are reportedly considering the race.

The 2024 Senate race, expected to be one of the most competitive in the country, likely will feature a three-way contest with incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema running as either an Independent or the nominee of the No Labels Party, which has qualified for the ballot in Arizona. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is the only announced Democratic contender and is fast becoming a consensus candidate.

House

NY-3: Ex-Rep. Suozzi Now Considering — Looking at the negative media circus that has surrounded freshman New York Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island), which certainly lessens his chances of winning re-election in 2024, former Congressman Tom Suozzi (D), who left the House to run a long-shot 2022 campaign for governor, confirms that he is now considering making a congressional comeback attempt next year.

Regardless of whether Suozzi runs, the NY-3 race will be a top Democratic conversion opportunity. It is probable that the Republican leadership will support a new GOP candidate in hopes of saving the seat. Democrats need only to convert five seats to recapture the House majority, and this race is certainly their number one target.

NY-22: New Candidate Emerges — Last November, freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) held the state’s new 22nd Congressional District that former Congressman John Katko (R) represented for eight years before retiring. Then, and now, the Syracuse anchored seat leans toward the Democrats (FiveThirtyEight: D+2; Dave’s Redistricting App: 53.4D – 43.1R partisan lean) but has elected a Republican to the US House in the last five consecutive elections.

Late last year, Manlius Town Councilwoman Katelyn Kriesel (D) announced that she would compete for the Democratic nomination to challenge Rep. Williams. Her campaign proved short-lived, however, since she dropped her bid at the beginning of March. Now, a new Democratic contender has emerged. DeWitt Town Councilwoman and US Air Force veteran Sarah Klee Hood (D) came forward at the end of last week to enter the race.

Count on this race being highly competitive in the 2024 general election cycle no matter who ultimately becomes the Democratic nominee.

Sen. Scott Forms Exploratory Committee; Sen. Baldwin to Seek Third Term; Re-Match Brewing in AZ, NY; Ex-Rep. Rouda Injured in Fall

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 14, 2023

President

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R)

Sen. Tim Scott: Exploratory Committee Formed — South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R) announced the formation of a presidential exploratory committee, which is likely his first official step toward becoming a national candidate. It’s hard to see a Republican nomination victory path for the senator, however. South Carolina is obviously the heart of his support base, but with the state’s former governor, Nikki Haley, already in the race, even that is diminished.

Should Sen. Scott advance into official candidacy, it is likely that former President Donald Trump will be the chief beneficiary. The more crowded the candidate field, the more favorable to Trump.

Senate

Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin to Seek Third Term — As expected, Badger State Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) announced this week that she will seek a third term next year. Baldwin was first elected to the Senate in 2012 but has been in elected public office consecutively since 1985. Prior to winning her current position, Baldwin served in the US House, the Wisconsin state assembly, the Dane County Board of Supervisors, and the Madison Common Council.

No Republican has formally come forward, but several individuals are considering the race. Unless the congressional map is redrawn, it is doubtful any member of the US House delegation will run. Former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch is a potential candidate as is businessman Scott Mayer. While Sen. Baldwin will be favored for re-election, the 2024 Senate race could well become highly competitive.

House

AZ-6: Re-Match Brewing — We are seeing several re-matches take place in 2024 US House races, and one in Arizona became official yesterday. Last November, Republican Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) defeated then-state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) by a 50.7 – 49.2 percent count, a margin of 5,232 votes. Now, Engel returns for a second chance.

Arizona’s 6th District sits in the southeast corner of the state and contains approximately half of the city of Tucson. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as R+7, but Dave’s Redistricting App sees a closer 50.9R – 47.1D partisan lean. Count on another close finish in this desert congressional district.

CA-47: Ex-Rep. Harley Rouda Forced Out — Former Rep. Harley Rouda (D), who held the former 48th Congressional District for one term, had announced a comeback attempt for next year’s political contest in new District 47. Unfortunately, Rouda was involved in a falling accident in which he sustained head injuries. On the advice of his physicians, Rouda says that he will now not pursue his 2024 candidacy and instead concentrate on returning to full health status.

This development means we will now almost assuredly see an open-seat contest between state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine) and 2022 congressional nominee and ex-state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R). In the previous election, Baugh lost to incumbent Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) by a 51.7 – 48.3 percent split. Rep. Porter is leaving the House to run for the US Senate.

NY-19: Another Re-Match Brewing — Continuing with re-matches, attorney Josh Riley (D), who lost 49.9 – 48.4 percent to now-freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook), announced that he, too, will return for another campaign in 2024.

The Upstate 19th District, anchored in Ulster and Dutchess Counties, is rated as R+1 from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, while Dave’s Redistricting App sees the partisan lean as a much different 52.0D – 44.6R. Democrats are already committed to targeting the Hudson Valley seats, so expect this race to transform into a national congressional campaign.