Tag Archives: Scott Brown

A Senate Shift to the Left? Not Quite

Angus King, Independent

Several surveys were released this week that revealed a leftward polling shift in key Senate races, but new data publicized late yesterday returned to the previous pattern.

With only six-plus weeks left until Election Day, Democratic Senate candidates have made considerable gains, and earlier this week national trends were showing a clear shift in races that are pivotal to a Senate majority.

With 51 seats needed to maintain the Senate majority, a current combination of returning senators and candidates leading in 2012 contests would give the Democrats 48 members. One Independent candidate (Angus King), should he win the open seat three-way race in Maine, is likely to caucus with the Democrats, while another six races where neither candidate has led consistently are considered toss-ups. In three of the too-close-to-call states – Wisconsin, Massachusetts and Virginia – the Democratic candidates appear to have made gains since the national convention period, and early week polls showed a definite change in voter support. But, studies released late yesterday afternoon projected the Republican candidate to now be gaining in all three of those particular places.

In Wisconsin, the battle between former governor Tommy Thompson and Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin continues to make news. Polling completed after the Democratic gathering in Charlotte, N.C., ended showing a major shift in the race. A New York Times/CBS News/Quinnipiac University survey projected Rep. Baldwin to have drawn into a tie with Thompson, after trailing him by six percentage points in August. Additionally, a Marquette University poll, also released Wednesday, revealed Rep. Baldwin catapulting from a nine-point deficit all the way into a nine-point lead. The new CBS/Quinnipiac poll, however, brings the race back to an even footing.

In the Old Dominion, we see another slight shift to the left as two polls give the Democrat, former governor Tim Kaine, leads of four and seven percentage points over Republican ex-senator George Allen. The polls, including one from the Washington Post, found that Kaine has an eight percentage point lead over Allen, 51-43 percent. That’s a significant shift since May when their last poll found the two candidates – both universally known in Virginia politics – tied. The second poll, a Quinnipac University/CBS News/New York Times study released Wednesday found Kaine to hold a seven percentage point lead over Allen, 51-44 percent, but their respondent universe contained a substantial over-sampling of Democrats. Previously, the same partnering organizations’ poll conducted in late July posted Kaine to a smaller, two percentage point lead.

In New England, we see more movement. On Wednesday, a fourth consecutive poll was published putting Democrat Elizabeth Warren ahead of Sen. Scott Brown (R). The incumbent, who recently distanced himself from GOP nominee and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and continues to battle for the opportunity to win a full six-year term in office, must overcome the highest hurdle of adverse political voting history of any Republican candidate in the country.

The Republicans may be coming through their down polling period because of the positive consistency associated with the numbers released yesterday. This tells us it is too soon to tell if a pro-Democratic pattern is beginning to crystallize, or whether the recent upturn was a mere blip in the ebb and flow of the election cycle.

With only 46 days until Election Day it is a certainty that each of the long-term close Senate races will continue to help define which of the two parties will claim majority status when the new Congress convenes in January.

Three Senate Races Turn Again

Yesterday we reported on recent Senate trends that looked favorable for Republicans, but new just-released polling shows a trio of races producing positive Democratic numbers. Within the last week Republican candidates were pulling ahead in Indiana, Massachusetts and Wisconsin. Now Democratic sources say those races have abruptly turned around.

In the Hoosier State, the Global Strategy Group, polling for the Joe Donnelly campaign (Sept. 8-10; 800 likely Indiana voters), reports that their candidate is leading Republican nominee Richard Mourdock by a 45-42 percent count.

Western New England University (Sept. 6-13; 545 registered Massachusetts voters), which has previously polled the Massachusetts Senate race and posted Sen. Scott Brown to a lead, now shows challenger Elizabeth Warren to be opening up a six-point, 50-44 percent advantage. This poll has a small sample and a long interview period, both negative reliability factors. Additionally, Public Policy Polling (Sept. 13-16; 876 likely Massachusetts voters) also puts Warren ahead of Brown, but by a smaller, and probably more realistic, 48-46 percent margin.

Turning to the Badger State of Wisconsin, where all post-August primary polls have shown former governor Tommy Thompson to be enjoying leads of varying sizes over Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI-2), the Democrats are producing new surveys touting a different result. The Feldman Group for the Baldwin campaign (Sept. 9-12; 800 likely Wisconsin voters) gives their candidate a 50-45 percent lead over the Republican nominee. Public Policy Polling, conducting a survey for the liberal organization Democracy for America (Sept. 12-13; 959 likely Wisconsin voters) gives Baldwin a three-point, 48-45 percent slight edge. This poll also shows President Obama clinging to the barest of leads over Mitt Romney in Wisconsin, a 49-48 percent count.

The campaigns are fluid, so these snap-shot numbers could be accurate, at least in the short term. The Indiana data is internally sourced from the Democratic campaign, which is always suspect without viewing the entire questionnaire. On the other hand, the Mourdock campaign has yet to release countering data of its own. The Western New England University poll likely has a large error factor and should be discounted. The Wisconsin studies could have validity because Thompson has not yet countered two solid weeks of heavy negative advertising against him. Expect more twists and turns in all of these races before November arrives.

Massachusetts Primary Results

Richard Tisei – Republican hopeful?

The Massachusetts primary bore no surprises last night, as all incumbents breezed to renomination victories.

In the western state 1st District, a redistricting combination of current CDs 1 and 2 (remember, the state lost a seat in reapportionment), incumbent Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA-2) easily overcame his Democratic primary challenge from former state senator Andrea Nuciforo Jr. Neal won 65-25%. The congressman has unofficially already won re-election as he is unopposed in the general election.

Worcester Rep. Jim McGovern crushed his Democratic primary opponent, garnering more than 91 percent of the vote. He, too, is unopposed in the general election.

In the newly configured District 3 (Lowell-Lawrence-north/central Mass.), incumbent Rep. Niki Tsongas will face GOP primary winner Jon Golnik, a businessman. The general election campaign will not be competitive.

In the southern part of the state, as expected, Joseph P. Kennedy III, the grandson of Robert F. Kennedy, broke 90 percent in the Democratic primary and moves to the general election. He is a prohibitive favorite against 2010 Republican nominee Sean Bielat in the battle to replace the retiring Congressman Barney Frank (D).

Checking the Malden-Melrose-Framingham seat, 18-term incumbent Ed Markey (D) will face military veteran Tom Tierney who won the three-way Republican primary with 43 percent of the vote. Tierney will have little chance against Markey in the fall.

The 6th District, in the northeastern corner of the Bay State, breaks the trend of non-competitive general election campaigns as Rep. John Tierney (D) and former state senator Richard Tisei (R) will square-off in what has the potential of becoming a close contest. Tierney, originally elected in 1996, won a 55-41 percent re-election victory two years ago after his wife was convicted of tax fraud for her activities in her brother’s off-shore internet gambling business. Tisei, who has already raised more than $1.4 million for the campaign and had $630,000 still remaining in his campaign bank account at the Aug. 17 pre-primary financial disclosure deadline, is a top-tier challenger. The 6th is one of the few Massachusetts congressional districts that could elect a Republican.

In the 7th District, Rep. Mike Capuano (D-MA-8) had no Democratic opposition last night and faces only a minor party candidate in November. Another easy win is in store for the congressman who, for a time, considered a Senate challenge to Republican incumbent Scott Brown but backed away and chose to remain in the House.

In the Boston-Quincy 8th District, Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-9) will face GOP businessman Joe Selvaggi in what will be an easy run for a seventh term. The congressman was unopposed for renomination last night.

Finally, the new 9th District, which covers the southeastern part of the state starting in Brockton and then travels due east to encompass the Cape Cod peninsula, freshman Rep. Bill Keating, who only represents 59 percent of this new constituency, scored a 60 percent victory in last night’s Democratic primary against Bristol County District Attorney Sam Sutter. Keating now faces local town Selectman Adam Chaprales who won a close Republican primary. The general election will not be competitive.

Considering the November vote, Massachusetts will host two hot races, the US Senate contest between incumbent Scott Brown (R) and challenger Elizabeth Warren (D) and the 6th Congressional District battle between Rep. Tierney (D) and former state legislator Tisei (R). The 20-percent competitive factor (two of 10 federal races) is actually a high number for Massachusetts, which historically is the quintessential one-party state.

Massachusetts Primary Today

As President Obama makes his Democratic nomination acceptance speech tonight, Massachusetts voters will go to the polls to choose federal and state political party nominees in the nation’s second primary election held on a Thursday. Tennessee is the other state that chose such a voting day.

The primary election features Sen. Scott Brown (R) and consumer advocate and Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren (D) poised to easily win their respective party nominations. In the House races, two incumbents have significant challenges from credible opponents, but no upsets are predicted.

In the western 1st District, which is basically a combination of the current 1st and 2nd Districts because Massachusetts lost a seat in reapportionment, veteran Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA-2) faces former state senator Andrea Nuciforo Jr., who is now a local official in Berkshire County. Since Neal’s Springfield base also comes to this new 1st CD, the incumbent will be difficult to dislodge, especially from a challenger with inferior resources.

In the 9th District, which now includes the hook-shaped Cape Cod peninsula, freshman Rep. Bill Keating (D-MA-10) attempts to win renomination from a very different district than the one to which he was originally elected. Almost 40 percent of the seat is new territory for Keating, and he goes into the primary seeing his home base of Quincy placed in another district. The congressman faces Bristol County District Attorney Sam Sutter today, but the challenger lacks the resources to defeat the one-term incumbent.

In the open 4th District (Democrat Rep. Barney Frank retiring) Joseph P. Kennedy III, grandson of Robert F. Kennedy, will cruise to the Democratic nomination today and easily win the seat in November. His victory will mark a return to Congress for the Kennedy family after a two-year absence from having anyone in federal office.

Missouri Aside, Senate Polls Break Toward GOP

Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA)

A spate of new US Senate polls is giving Republican Party leaders some solace in the face of the Todd Akin debacle in Missouri.

Public Policy Polling (Aug. 16-19; 1,115 likely Massachusetts voters) projects Sen. Scott Brown (R) to a 49-44 percent lead over consumer advocate and Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren (D). This is the senator’s largest lead in months. Most recent polls showed him either trailing by a point or two, or tied.

Rasmussen Reports (Aug. 20; 500 likely Montana voters) gives Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-MT-AL) a 47-43 percent edge over Sen. Jon Tester (D).

Michigan-based Foster McCollum White & Associates (Aug. 16; 1,733 likely Michigan voters), for the first time, posts challenger Pete Hoekstra (R) to a 48-46 percent advantage against two-term Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D).

PPP also released data for the Wisconsin Senate race, as did Marquette University Law School. According to the former (Aug. 16-19; 1,308 likely Wisconsin voters), Republican ex-governor Tommy Thompson has the upper hand over Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI-2) by a five-point, 49-44 percent, spread. The latter survey (Aug. 16-19; 706 registered Wisconsin voters) shows Thompson with an even larger lead, 50-41 percent.

And, as we reported yesterday, Foster McCollum White & Associates (Aug. 17; 1,503 likely Florida voters) gives Rep. Connie Mack IV (R-FL-14) his largest lead of the campaign, 51-43 percent, over two-term Sen. Bill Nelson (D).

If the patterns in each of these campaigns were to hold, the Republicans would surely capture the Senate majority and see their conference grow to 52 members and possibly beyond. Much will change, however, between now and Nov. 6.