Tag Archives: Indiana

Senate Recap – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024

Senate

In a three-part series, we examine the latest in the 21 US Senate races that are either competitive or where a new senator will succeed an incumbent not seeking re-election. In alphabetical order, we begin today with Arizona and move through Michigan. Tomorrow, we look at Minnesota through New Mexico, and on Friday, end with the competitive races from Ohio to Wisconsin.

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)

Arizona — Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) is retiring after one term, and it appears that Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) will be her successor in January. Rep. Gallego has successfully created a more moderate image than his record in the House might depict. His campaign is emphasizing his military record and addresses the border issue, which has greater effect in Arizona than most states.

Republicans, nominating former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, have also yielded the inside track to Rep. Gallego. Lake’s continued accusations that voter fraud cost her the 2022 election has soured most swing voters. Rep. Gallego leads in all polls, and with an average position of 7-plus points in nine September polls and two tracks. Expect Rep. Gallego to officially claim the seat in November.

California — While former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) performed well in California’s crowded jungle primary election back in June, and even placed first in the special election to permanently replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), he is no match for Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) in a two-way match.

Schiff’s advertising about Garvey being too conservative during the primary helped elevate the Garvey candidacy with Republicans, thus the congressman got the general election opponent he desired. A GOP candidate has virtually no chance today in a California statewide race. Schiff will win in a landslide.

Delaware — Sen. Tom Carper (D) is retiring and leaves the seat to at-large Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington). This open race is nothing more than an easy re-election bid for the congresswoman who already represents the entire state.

Florida — Sen. Rick Scott (R) is on the ballot for a second term, after winning his initial federal election by just over 10,000 votes from more than eight million ballots cast. In that election, Scott, then the state’s governor, unseated veteran Sen. Bill Nelson (D). This time, Sen. Scott faces former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), who held a south Florida seat for one term before current Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami) unseated her in 2020.

While polling again shows a close race – Sen. Scott leads by just over three percentage points in seven September polls and two tracks – the Florida electorate’s political composition has drastically changed from six years ago.

In 2018, when Sen. Scott was first elected, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by over 257,000 registrants. Today, Republicans hold a 956,000-plus advantage over Democrats, meaning the state has changed in the GOP’s favor by more than 1.2 million individuals. This is the main reason that pollsters underestimated the 2022 Florida statewide Republican strength by an average of seven points.

Expect Sen. Scott to win by a bigger margin than the polling currently indicates.

Indiana — With first-term Sen. Mike Braun (R) eschewing a second term to launch what appears to be a successful run for governor, Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) finds himself with one of the easiest open Senate runs in decades. Banks was unopposed in the Republican primary and is pitted against a weak Democratic contender in the general election. Rep. Banks will easily win the Senate seat in November and protect the open seat for the GOP.

Maryland — Sen. Ben Cardin (D) is retiring after a remarkable 58 years in elective office, counting his time in the state legislature, the US House, and of course the Senate. In his wake we have seen two rather astonishing campaigns, the first in the Democratic primary where US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) spent $62 million of his own money only to lose to Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks by just over 10 percentage points in the May election.

The second surprise is the closeness of the general election in what has performed as one of the Democratic Party’s strongest states. Former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan (R), still a popular figure in Maryland, is clearly the best candidate the Republicans could field, and he is making the race close.

Whether he can overtake Alsobrooks now that Vice President Kamala Harris is the party nominee and has activated the base voter to a greater degree than President Joe Biden, is very much in doubt. It seems what is a potential 30-point Harris victory in Maryland might be too high an obstacle for even Gov. Hogan to scale.

While this is an expensive race and one that is clearly in play, Alsobrooks must remain as at least a nominal favorite to succeed Sen. Cardin.

Michigan — Four-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) was the first 2024 in-cycle senator to announce that she would not seek re-election. She yields to what has become a highly competitive race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R).

While Michigan trends Democratic, the polling has been quite close both in this race and for the presidential campaign. Unlike most of the other states where former President Donald Trump is running either ahead or in a dead heat with Harris, the Michigan Republican Senate candidate has not lagged. In the other Senate states, and particularly those with an incumbent Democrat seeking re-election, the GOP contender is running well behind Trump’s standing.

In the Wolverine State, we see 14 polls and two tracks being conducted during the month of September. Slotkin leads in all but one, with an average percentage point edge of just over five even though she has an almost 5:1 edge in campaign resources. Outside spending has been heavy, but here Republicans have more than a three million dollar edge among the $45-plus million already expended.

While Rep. Slotkin has a small but clear advantage in this statewide campaign, a stronger than expected performance from Trump at the top of the GOP ticket could give Rogers the extra push he needs to score the upset victory.

Moreno Records First Lead in Ohio Senate Race; A Dead Heat in VA-7; In Governors’ Races, Indiana Stays Close, Stein Pulling Away in NC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 30, 2024

Senate

Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno (R)

Ohio: Moreno Records First Lead — RMG Research went into the Ohio field with a flash poll (Sept. 18-20; 781 likely Ohio voters; online) and for the first time found Republican challenger Bernie Moreno (R) leading Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). The ballot test posted Moreno to a 47-45 percent edge, and 48-46 percent when respondents who said they are leaning to one candidate or the other were added to the decided total.

Though RMG has produced some questionable recent data, the current Ohio Senate race progression suggests that the overall trend is moving in Moreno’s direction. The three September polls prior to the RMG data release found Sen. Brown’s margin to be 1, 3, and 2 points; therefore, this race is moving toward pure toss-up range.

House

VA-7: Another Dead-Heat Poll — Despite a huge 7:1 advantage in fundraising through the latest published Federal Election Commission campaign finance report (June 30), retired Army Col. Eugene Vindman (D) has not pulled away from Republican Iraq/Afghan War veteran Derrick Anderson (R) in their battle for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. The new Ragnar Research Partners survey for the Anderson campaign (Sept. 14-17; 400 likely VA-7 voters; live interview) finds the two candidates locked in a dead-heat 43-43 percent tie. In August, the Ragnar data found the two contenders separated by only a 42-41 percent spread in Vindman’s favor.

The 7th District is one of the few competitive open seats in the country. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+2. The Down Ballot research organization ranks the seat as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) chose not to seek re-election in order to concentrate on a 2025 open race for governor.

Governor

Indiana: Closer Than Expected — The Republicans strength in the Hoosier State suggested that this year’s open governor’s race would not be particularly close. It still may end that way, but a new GBAO survey, conducted for the Democratic Governors Association (Sept. 19-22; 600 likely Indiana voters; live interview & text) currently finds a close ballot test result.

Despite former President Donald Trump leading the presidential race by 10 percentage points according to this Indiana poll, Sen. Mike Braun (R) maintains only a tepid advantage over former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick (D), 44-41 percent. The poll suggests that Sen. Braun is weak among Republicans, garnering only 80 percent support within his own party. McCormick, according to this data, also has the advantage with Independents by a 42-32 percent clip.

The previously released survey, from Emerson College (Sept. 12-13; 1,000 likely Indiana voters; multiple sampling techniques) found Sen. Braun holding a much more substantial 11-point lead, 45-34 percent.

North Carolina: Stein Pulling Away — Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson’s recent highly publicized controversy pertaining to past comments and actions is taking its toll. Attorney General Josh Stein (D) is now pulling away from Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in what was once a close race.

A series of four polls from Emerson College, Victory Insights, the New York Times/Siena College, and Marist College, all conducted between Sept. 15-24, with sample sizes ranging from 600 to 1,348, projects Stein as leading the governor’s race by 8, 5, 10, and 11 points, consecutively. As Robinson’s problems continue to mount, the race moves toward Stein clinching victory. Expect the Democrats to retain control of the Tar Heel State governor’s mansion. Two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Incumbents Winning Big

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 23, 2024

Elections

At this point in the 2024 election cycle we have seen a number of budding primary challenges opposite US House members, and through this past Tuesday the incumbents are batting 1.000. It is likely, however, that the most competitive challenges are yet to come.

A total of 17 states have held their down-ballot primary elections. Within this number were 62 partisan challenges to US representatives. The California all-party jungle primary system does not produce traditional intra-party challenges. Therefore, the Golden State races are not included in the partisan statistics quoted in this column.

In only one race, that one in Alabama’s newly constructed 1st District, did an incumbent, Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile), lose. But, in a paired redistricting situation, a sitting member losing was the inevitable conclusion.

We have seen no serious nomination challenges to sitting in-cycle senators. In the House, of the 62 members who have faced an intra-party opponent, 18 have proven to be substantial challenges. This means that the top opponent received at least 30 percent of the vote.

In only two, however, was an incumbent victory even in doubt. On March 19, southern Illinois Congressman Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) defeated former state senator and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey by a slight 51-49 percent count.

On May 7 in the Hoosier State of Indiana, Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville), who originally indicated she would not seek re-election but changed her mind before the candidate filing deadline, only scored 39 percent of the primary vote. The total, however, was enough to turn back eight GOP challengers including state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-Noblesville) who captured 33 percent support.

Therefore, at this point in the House cycle with now a bare majority of 218 district electorates having nominated their general election contenders, it appears the stage might be set to see another incumbent-favorable general election.

The primary vote to-date could be the precursor to seeing a similar result to what we saw in 2022, when incumbents fared extremely well even though polling suggested the electorate desired major change. Two years ago, 55 of 56 senators and governors who ran for re-election won, and the incumbent retention percentage in the House was 98.1.

Should the 2024 election result in a similar conclusion, we would again see very small margins in both the House and Senate. Yet, the primary season is only half over, and a number of key members remain embroiled in primary campaigns.

While we’ve only seen two primaries in the first half resulting in close finishes, several upcoming contests could end in close counts or even incumbent upsets. In fact, 13 members in 11 states face challengers who are positioning themselves for serious runs.

Arizona freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) sees former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith coming forward. Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), while changing to the open 4th District, must overcome Logan County Commissioner Jerry Sonnenberg and two state representatives to secure nomination in the new district.

In Florida, both Reps. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) and Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) face a former state representative and ex-school superintendent, respectively.

In what are proving to be the top challenges to Democratic members, Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), Cori Bush (D-MO), and Ilhan Omar (D-MN), all members of far left “Squad,” each face serious opponents in the persons of Westchester County Executive George Latimer, St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell, and former Minneapolis City councilman and 2022 congressional candidate Don Samuels.

Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman) is repelling a multi-million dollar challenge from Texas transplant Paul Bondar. Two South Carolina members, Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and William Timmons (R-Greenville), are attempting to defeat strong challenges from former Haley Administration official Catherine Templeton, and state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Greenville).

Like Rep. Mace, who is under attack for voting to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Virginia Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) also has his hands full attempting to defend himself from state Sen. John McGuire’s (R) aggressive challenge.

Tennessee Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) and Utah’s Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City), the latter of whom won her seat in a late 2023 special election, also are in serious battles for renomination.

While we have seen an unblemished nomination record for incumbent House members in the first half of primaries, the second half may threaten their so far perfect record.

Indiana Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 8, 2024

Indiana Primary Results

Screenshot

President: Biden and Trump Easily Win — Since the presidential contest is effectively over, it was with little surprise that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump easily won their respective primaries. Turnout heavily favored Republicans, as the GOP participation total outpaced the Democrats by almost 400,000 voters. Of the 35 states holding primaries or definable caucus votes, Republicans have seen more voters cast ballots than Democrats in 26 domains. Of those voting in the Hoosier State, 76.6 percent of the individuals chose the Republican primary.

Senate: Psychologist Valerie McCray to Oppose Jim Banks — Psychologist Valerie McCray easily won the Democratic Senate primary with a 67-33 percent victory over former state Rep. Marc Carmichael. McCray will now challenge US Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) who was unopposed for the open Republican nomination. Rep. Banks begins this race as the prohibitive favorite to hold the open Senate seat for the GOP. Unopposed for the Democratic nomination was Jennifer McCormick, the former state Superintendent of Public Instruction and an ex-Republican.

IN-3: Ex-Rep. Marlin Stutzman to Return — While 3rd District incumbent Jim Banks has an easy run for the Senate, the Republican primary to replace him in the House evolved into a highly competitive political battle. The winner is still not formally declared, but it appears that former Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R) will claim the nomination with just 24 percent of the vote. At this writing, 82 percent of the ballots have been counted and it is doubtful that the finishing order will change. Following Stutzman are businessman Tim Smith with 22.2 percent support; former circuit judge Wendy Davis at 19.3 percent; and state Sen. Andy Zay (R-Huntington), who posts a close 16.9 percent preference factor.

With the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating IN-3 as R+34, there is little doubt that Stutzman will win the general election and return to the House after leaving Congress at the beginning of 2017. In 2016, Stutzman ran for the Senate but failed to overcome then-US Rep. Todd Young in the Republican primary who would then go onto win the open seat in 2016 and re-election in 2022.

IN-5: Rep. Victoria Spartz Wins a Plurality Renomination — The Indiana House incumbent facing the most competitive challenge was Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) who originally announced her retirement only to change her mind before filing time. Despite attracting just 39 percent of the vote, she wins the plurality primary, which should be enough political insurance to easily carry the general election in this central Indiana district at the beginning of November.

The congresswoman’s closest finisher is state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-Noblesville) whose 33 percent support figure was unsurprisingly not strong enough to topple the incumbent. None of the other seven GOP candidates even reached the 10 percent mark. The new Democratic nominee is educator Deborah Pickett who won her party’s nomination with 59 percent of the vote. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization of R+22, Rep. Spartz will have little trouble winning a third term later this year.

IN-6: Ex-City Councilman Jefferson Shreve Takes GOP Primary — Three-term Rep. Greg Pence (R-Columbus) is retiring, and the Republican nomination battle in this district became fierce. The winner is former Indianapolis City Councilman Jefferson Shreve, who was both the campaign’s biggest fundraiser, and the subject of the most negative attacks.

Shreve self-financed $4.5 million of his campaign effort, which was enough to secure a 29-22-21 percent victory over state Rep. Mike Speedy (R-Indianapolis) and businessman Jamison Carrier. IN-6 is the safest Republican seat in the state, so Shreve will have little trouble holding the district in the GOP column come the November election.

IN-8: Hostettler Comeback Thwarted — Seven-term Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Evansville) is the third member of the Hoosier State US House delegation to not seek re-election. As in the 3rd District, a former congressman, John Hostettler, who represented the seat from 1995-2007, was attempting a political comeback. The result did not turn out as well for Hostettler as for Stutzman.

The winner of the 8th District Republican primary is state Sen. Mark Messmer (R-Jasper), who appeared to be the leading candidate from the outset. He topped Hostettler with a 39-19 percent victory margin. None of the other six candidates reached the 16 percent mark. Sen. Messmer now becomes the prohibitive favorite to succeed Rep. Bucshon in the November election.

Inconsistent GOP Coalition in Texas; Cuellar Indicted; NJ-10 Special ; Indiana Primary Today; Morrisey Back on Top in West Virginia

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 7, 2024

House

TX-12: An Inconsistent Coalition — While the Republican Party’s more conservative wing looks to be lining up behind real estate developer John O’Shea in the GOP runoff for the party nomination to succeed retiring Rep. Kay Granger (R-Ft. Worth), state Rep. Craig Goldman (R-Ft. Worth) launched a new ad (above) that purports to prove that O’Shea is not even a consistent Republican voter. The ad contains a video clip of O’Shea saying, “I am not a conservative,” and points out that he did not vote in the 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections. Conversely, Goldman brandishes his endorsements from Gov. Greg Abbott (R), Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R), and the National Rifle Association.

The March 5 primary ended with Goldman capturing first place with 44.4 percent of the vote as compared to O’Shea’s 26.4 percent. The May 28 runoff was forced because none of the four competing Republican candidates reached the majority support mark. The runoff winner will be a lock to win the seat in November.

TX-28: Rep. Cuellar Indicted — On Friday, 10-term Texas US Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) and his wife were indicted on federal bribery charges, but the congressman says he is innocent and will not leave his re-election race. After two consecutive close call renomination campaigns in 2020 and 2022, Rep. Cuellar was unopposed in this year’s Democratic primary. The Republican side ended in a runoff between retired Navy officer Jay Furman and rancher Lazaro Garza, which will be decided on May 28. Neither man was expected to mount a major challenge in the general election, but the congressman’s legal situation could change that.

Texas’ 28th District begins in southeast San Antonio and moves all the way to the Mexican border through nine counties. In addition to part of San Antonio, the district houses the Laredo, Rio Bravo, and Rio Grande City communities. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-28 as D+7. President Joe Biden carried the district by a 52-46 percent margin. After a very tight 2022 Democratic primary and runoff, Rep. Cuellar won a comfortable 57-43 percent general election victory.

NJ-10: Special Election Scheduled — Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has called a special election to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-Newark) who passed away on April 24. The special primary will be held on July 16th, with the special general on Sept. 18. The winner will take the seat in late September and then be on the ballot for the regular term on Nov. 5.

Because Rep. Payne passed away after the candidate filing deadline, the local Democratic Party organizations will choose a replacement nominee after the July 16 special primary. It is presumed the delegates will choose the special primary winner. Republican Carmen Bucco and Green Party candidate Jon Serrano, along with Congressman Payne, were the only candidates to file at the March 25 filing deadline.

The Democrats will easily retain the Newark-anchored 10th District. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+58, and President Biden scored an 81-19 percent victory here in 2020. Now that Gov. Murphy has scheduled the special election, candidates will soon come forward.

Primary

Indiana: Primary Today — Indiana voters cast their primary ballots today, and while the presidential election nomination process is locked for both parties, several key US House races will be effectively decided. The incumbent facing the most competitive challenge today is Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) who originally announced her retirement only to change her mind before filing time. While eight Republican challengers are opposing the incumbent, the race is really between Rep. Spartz and state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-Noblesville). The crowded field likely helps Rep. Spartz, but polling suggests a close finish.

The state features three Republican open seats, and GOP nominees who will be heavy favorites in the general election will be chosen today. Reps. Greg Pence (R-Columbus) and Larry Bucshon (R-Evansville) are retiring, and the Republican winners this evening will be locks to win in November. Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City), who is running unopposed for the party nomination in the US Senate race, leaves a field of eight Republican candidates vying to be his successor. The contest is winnowing to three candidates: former Circuit Judge Wendy Davis, former Congressman Marlin Stutzman, and state Sen. Andy Zay (R-Huntington).

Sen. Mike Braun: Likely to Win GOP Governor’s Primary — Indiana is one of 11 states featuring governors’ campaigns this year, and eight are open seat contests. US Sen. Mike Braun (R) is foregoing a re-election bid to attempt to succeed Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) who is ineligible to seek a third term.

Sen. Braun looks to be well positioned to win a plurality primary victory over Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch and businessmen Eric Doden and Brad Chambers. The Republican nominee then becomes a heavy favorite in the general election against consensus Democratic candidate Jennifer McCormick, the former state Superintendent of Public Instruction and an ex-Republican.

Governor

West Virginia: Morrisey Reassumes Polling Lead — Two weeks ago, when a poll for the first time showed former state Delegate Moore Capito (R), son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), leading Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in the open race for governor, we expected a counter poll to soon surface. Such is now the case.

During the April 20-22 period, NMB Research released survey results revealing a Capito GOP primary lead of 31-29 percent over AG Morrisey with businessman Chris Miller, son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), and Secretary of State Mac Warner trailing with 14 and 13 percent, respectively.

The counter poll was released late last week. Research America (April 24-May 1; 407 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters; live interview & online) sees Morrisey returning to the lead with 32 percent, while Miller and Moore follow with 25 and 24 percent, respectively. Secretary of State Warner drops back with 10 percent support.

Since polling for this race was first published in February of 2023, 10 surveys have been released. Morrisey has led in nine. The West Virginia primary is scheduled for May 14. The Republican nominee will almost certainly succeed term-limited Gov. Jim Justice (R).

Trump Leads Among Texas Hispanics; Trone Rebounds in Maryland; Figures Wins Runoff in Alabama; Indiana Sen. Braun Criticized for Supporting BLM

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 19, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Texas: Trump Leads Among Texas Hispanics — The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation conducted a recent poll of the Lone Star State electorate (April 5-10; 1,600 likely Texas voters) and finds former President Donald Trump posting a 12-point lead over President Joe Biden in a five-way race that includes the two major party candidates, Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and potential Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver. The preference split was 46-34-9-2-1 percent in the above candidate order. Texas, the second-largest state in population, has 40 electoral votes to award to its presidential winner.

The most interesting part of the poll, however, was the vote division among Hispanics. Within this segment, Trump actually leads President Biden 41-37 percent, which is another indication that Trump has upward mobility among Hispanics while Biden exhibits clear weakness within the community. Trump also does well with Texas women, leading the president 44-34 percent, a trend not seen in many other places. His spread among Lone Star men is 50-34 percent.

Senate

Maryland: Trone Rebounds from Close Poll — We earlier reported on a poll from Maryland Democratic Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks (Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group; April 8-10; 600 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters; live interview) that found her trailing US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) by just three percentage points, 43-40 percent.

Already, we see a counter poll, this one coming from the Baltimore Sun newspaper. According to their new survey (OpinionWorks; April 7-10; 1,292 likely Maryland general election voters; 600 Democratic primary voters), Rep. Trone holds a commanding advantage over Alsobrooks, topping her 48-29 percent. With such an obvious difference between the two professional polls conducted in the same time frame with identical sample sizes, it is clear we will need further data to better understand where this race resides. Expect heavy campaigning to occur as we move closer to the May 14 Maryland primary.

House

AL-2: Shomari Figures Wins Dem Runoff — As expected, Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures, who placed first in the original Democratic primary back on March 5, easily defeated state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels by a 61-39 percent count. Figures, the son of parents who both served in the Alabama Senate, now advances to the general election where he will be favored to win a newly created district that President Biden would have carried 56-43 percent.

The Republican runoff ended with a surprise, as attorney Caroleen Dobson upset former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker with a 58-42 percent victory. In the March 5 primary, Brewbaker led a field of eight candidates. Dobson trailed Brewbaker by more than 12 percentage points and only qualified for the second runoff position by 632 votes over the third-place finisher. Like Figures, Dobson will now advance into the Nov. 5 general election.

Governor

Indiana: Braun Attacked for Supporting BLM — While Sen. Mike Braun (R) has shown Republican primary polling strength against Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, and venture capitalist Eric Doden in their battle for the open governor’s position, he is now under attack for statement indicating his support for the Black Lives Matter organization.

The American Advancement organization is running ads featuring Braun saying, “I support that movement because it’s addressing an inequity that has not been solved.” The ad further has him saying he would, “if asked,” join a BLM protest as the narrator continually calls him a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only). It remains to be seen if the Super Pac buys enough airtime to make their negative attack on Sen. Braun stick.

April-May Primary Outlook – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 15, 2024

Primaries

On the threshold of witnessing another set of primary elections, we begin a two-part overview of what to expect in nine primary states whose electorates will vote later this month and in May.

Today, we look at the lone April primary, that in Pennsylvania, and the first of the May nomination elections, Indiana, on the 7th of next month. Three states, Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia, will hold primaries on May 14, while four more vote on May 21: Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon.

In Pennsylvania, with candidates headed to an April 23 primary date, we see an uncontested US Senate nomination battle in both parties with three major primary campaigns headed toward culmination.

Counting the Senate race, Pennsylvania looks to host four highly competitive general elections coming from the primaries, while three US House incumbents, Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown), Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia), and Mike Kelly (R-Butler) each face only minor nomination competition.

Pennsylvania

While the Senate election will produce fireworks in the general election, the April 23 nomination vote will be quiet in both primaries. Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) and businessman and 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick (R) are both unopposed in their respective nomination contests. Sen. Casey is favored to win a fourth term, but this race will be one of the premier campaigns in the ’24 cycle.

While Rep. Fitzpatrick faces only minor primary competition, his politically marginal 1st District will again be at least moderately competitive in the general election. Government affairs consultant Ashley Ehasz, the 2022 Democratic nominee who lost to the congressman 55-45 percent, returns for a re-match. She is unopposed in her party primary.

While three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) can again expect to face a highly competitive general election, she is unopposed for renomination. The Republicans feature a three-way primary race among state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Emmaus), 2022 candidate and businessman Kevin Dellicker, and DeSales University Trustee Maria Montero. The plurality primary winner on April 23 then advances into what could become a toss-up general election against Rep. Wild who won her last two elections with 52 and 51 percent of the vote in 2020 and 2022, respectively.

Just to the north of Rep. Wild’s 7th District, Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic) will again face tough competition in the general election. This time, his Republican opponent will be businessman Rob Bresnahan. Both are unopposed in their respective primaries.

The Democrats feature a major multi-candidate primary battle for the right to challenge six-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsworth/Harrisburg) in the competitive 10th District. Six Democrats are vying for the right to challenge Perry, who they claim is too conservative for the politically marginal seat that only leans to the Republicans (FiveThirtyEight data organization rating: R+9). Of the six, businessman and Afghan War veteran Mike O’Brien; former news anchor Janelle Stelson; and 2022 nominee Shamaine Daniels, a Harrisburg City councilwoman; are the principal contenders.

Perhaps the most interesting Pennsylvania congressional primary lies in the Pittsburgh anchored 12th CD where freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Swissvale) and Edgewood Borough Councilwoman Bhavini Patel are doing battle in the Democratic primary. Patel is challenging Rep. Lee from a centrist political position, attacking the incumbent as being too far left as a member of the Democratic Conference’s informal far left “Squad” led by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). Both candidates are heavily engaged, and this will be the top primary to watch on April 23. Lee prevailed in the 2022 open Democratic primary with 42 percent of the vote, topping her principal opponent by 988 votes.

Freshman Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Aspinwall) will face a competitive general election in the Allegheny County anchored 17th CD, but he and state Rep. Rob Mercuri (R-Pine Richland) are both unopposed in their respective primaries.

Indiana

We will see several competitive primaries unfold in the Hoosier State on May 7. Sen. Mike Braun (R) faces a field of five Republican opponents in his quest to win the open governor’s office, including Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch. Sen. Braun is favored. To replace him in Washington, Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) is unopposed in the Republican primary and will easily win the general election in November.

A total of three Indiana US House seats are open in the nine-district delegation. In Rep. Banks 3rd CD, eight Republican candidates are competing including former Congressman Marlin Stutzman, state Sen. Andy Zay (R-Huntington County), and retired circuit judge Wendy Davis. The May 7 GOP winner should see easily sailing in the general election from this Ft. Wayne-anchored CD.

Rep. Greg Pence (R-Columbus) is retiring after serving what will be three terms, and a crowded field of eight Republicans are competing to replace him in the US House. The field includes a state senator, a state representative, a former senator, an ex-representative, and a former Indianapolis City councilman. This race is a free-for-all, and the eventual winner will come nowhere close to receiving majority support.

Seven-term Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Evansville) is also retiring, and a crowded competitive Republican field also exists in this southwestern CD. Like the 3rd District primary, the 8th CD open GOP candidate field features former US Congressman John Hostettler. Eight Republicans are opposing him including state Sen. Mark Messmer who has been in the legislature since the beginning of 2009, and Owen County GOP chair Kristi Risk.

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) became the first of the House incumbents to announce that she would not seek re-election in 2024. She changed her mind and is running again, but that did not stop any of her 10 Republican opponents from remaining in the race. Her main competition comes from state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-Noblesville), and recent polling suggests this race will be close. If Rep. Spartz is renominated, it will likely be only with plurality support.

Reps. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle), Andre Carson (D-Indianapolis), and Erin Houchin (R-Salem) face only minor competition in their respective primaries. Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Highland/Gary) is unopposed in the Democratic primary, but will again face competition in the general election.