Tag Archives: Gov. Andy Beshear

Republicans Coalesce in IL-17; Alabama’s New Congressional Map; Baird Rumors in Indiana False; Crowded Field in PA-10; Kentucky Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 9, 2023

House

Illinois Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) / Photo provided by Eric Sorensen for Illinois campaign

IL-17: Republicans Coalesce — Republicans plan to target Illinois’ 17th District as a conversion opportunity in the next election. It has been the site of two close electoral contests, and Republicans tend to do better in western Illinois during presidential election years. Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) is the freshman incumbent who will be seeking a second term.

Republicans are coalescing around retired circuit judge Joe McGraw, who will soon officially announce his candidacy. Paving the way for the McGraw announcement, businessman Ray Estrada (R) who has been running for the seat himself, said that he will no longer pursue his candidacy. This likely paves the way for an easy McGraw Republican primary run.

The 17th, which stretches to form a craggy letter “C” from Rockford to the Quad Cities to Galesburg, Peoria, and finally Bloomington, rates a D+4 classification from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Daily Kos Elections site rates IL-17 as the 26th most vulnerable seat in the 213-member Democratic Conference.

Alabama: Court Releases New Map — The court-appointed special master returned the new congressional map to the three-judge panel late last week, as directed. Not surprisingly, the new map will feature a Republican district that stretches from Mississippi to Georgia along the Florida border that pairs Reps. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise). As a result, a new 2nd District has been created, designed to elect the choice of the dominant minority community, in this case African Americans. Democrats will gain one seat in the Alabama delegation as a result of this new plan.

IN-4: Rep. Baird to Seek Re-Election — A couple weeks ago, reports were forthcoming from Indiana that 4th District US Rep. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle) was planning to retire and announce that just before the candidate filing deadline expired in order to give his son, state Rep. Beau Baird (R-Greencastle), the inside track toward winning the Republican nomination. That rumor is false. Congressman Baird announced late last week that he will run for a fourth term next year and is heavily favored for re-election.

PA-10: More Join Already Crowded Field –– As expected when she announced her retirement from the newsroom, television anchorwoman Janelle Stelson (D) on Thursday formally declared her intention to run for Congress. She joins what is becoming a crowded Democratic field, however, as each of the candidates are vying for the right to challenge six-term US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg). Also in the Democratic primary are 2022 congressional nominee and Harrisburg City Councilwoman Shemaine Daniels, Carlisle School Board member Rick Coplen, and international business consultant John Broadhurst.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-10 as R+9. The Daily Kos Elections site rates this central Pennsylvania seat as the 37th most vulnerable seat in the 222-member Republican Conference.

Governor

Kentucky: Cameron Gaining Against Gov. Beshear — WPA Intelligence conducted their second September poll of the Kentucky governor’s race for The Club for Growth organization. The survey (Sept. 25-28; 500 likely 2023 Kentucky general election voters; live interview) found Gov. Andy Beshear (D) leading Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) by a 48-42 percent count. In their early September survey, WPA found a 48-40 percent Beshear advantage.

The slight movement suggests that Cameron has a chance to gain further support as the campaign enters its critical final month. The election is scheduled for Nov. 7.

Matos Under Scrutiny in RI; Republican Challengers Align in CA-9; Democrat Battle Brewing in NY-4; Kentucky, New Hampshire Gov. News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 26, 2023

House

Rhode Island Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D)

RI-1: Matos’ Signatures Undergoing Greater Scrutiny — Earlier, we reported that Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D), a candidate in the special election to replace resigned Rhode Island Congressman David Cicilline (D), is under scrutiny about the legality of her petition signatures. Now, the situation has become more serious. Yesterday, the Rhode Island Board of Elections members voted 5-1 to investigate her petition filing.

The Board will order research on each of the submitted petition signatures to ensure the required number of legal entries are present. If short of the required 750 number, Matos would be disqualified from participating as a candidate in an election where she appears as the clear leader. A total of 12 Democrats have preliminarily been approved for the special election ballot. The Democratic primary, winning of which is tantamount to claiming the seat, is scheduled for Sept. 5.

CA-9: Candidate Withdraws; Endorses — Pastor Brett Dood, who had previously declared his congressional candidacy to compete against Rep. Josh Harder (D-Tracy), has announced that he will end his campaign. Dood then said he would support Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) who became a congressional candidate last week. Republicans now appear to be uniting behind Lincoln, meaning they will have a credible challenger against Rep. Harder in a district that can become competitive.

In 2021 redistricting, Rep. Harder fared poorly and moved into the 9th District to run after veteran Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) announced his retirement. Though Rep. Harder had less than 28 percent of the crossover population from his previous 10th District, he still recorded a 55-45 percent victory over San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti (R) but needed to outspend him by a 6:1 ratio in order to do so.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-9 as D+8. Though in an underdog position, this is the type of seat Republicans need to put in play to protect their small majority.

NY-4: Dem Battle Brewing — There was no doubt that freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) was going to face a major re-election battle in 2024. He was the 2022 election cycle’s big upset winner in defeating former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen (D) in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+10. Now, however, it appears that Gillen, who has announced she will return for a rematch, will face her own major challenge in the Democratic primary.

Though he has not yet made an official announcement, two-term state Sen. Kevin Thomas (D-Levittown) has filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission. Expect this race to draw significant national political attention from beginning to end.

Governor

Kentucky: GOP Poll Shows Closing Race — The Republican State Leadership Committee released a new Public Opinion Strategies survey (July 19-20; 500 Kentucky registered voters; live interview) showing a closing of the 2023 governor’s race between incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D) and Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R). The ballot test finds the governor holding only a 49-45 percent edge. The poll counters another POS poll from late June for a public interest group that posted Gov. Beshear to a 52-42 percent lead. The election is scheduled for Nov. 7.

New Hampshire: Former US Sen. Ayotte Enters Open Gov Race — Former New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R), who won a landslide 2010 victory with a 60-36 percent spread but lost her seat six years later to current incumbent Maggie Hassan (D) in a razor-thin 49-48 percent margin, announced Monday that she will return to active politics with a run for governor. Four-term incumbent Chris Sununu (R), who is not seeking a fifth two-year term, leaves behind what promises to be a hotly contested general election as well as two competitive party primaries.

In addition to Sen. Ayotte entering the governor’s race, former state Senate President and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse is also an announced Republican candidate. The Democrats already feature a race for their party nomination between Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.

Sununu Gaining Ground in NH; Becker Passes in Nevada; A Utah Mayor to Challenge Romney; Poll Shows tight North Carolina Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 25, 2023

President

Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

New Hampshire: Movement for Sununu — The National Research, Inc. polling firm, surveying for the American Greatness organization, tested the New Hampshire Republican electorate and found Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who will likely soon enter the presidential contest, gaining ground. He will obviously need to score well before his home electorate if he is to become a viable national contender.

According to the NR data (May 15-17; 500 likely New Hampshire Republican presidential primary voters), former President Donald Trump continues to lead the group of candidates with 39 percent support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is second with 18%, with Gov. Sununu now close behind at 17 percent. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy surprisingly rose to the top of the second tier with six percent. No other candidate or potential contender even broke the three percent threshold.

Senate

Nevada: Another Takes Pass — April Becker, the Republican congressional nominee who held Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) to a 52-48 percent re-election victory last November and was reported to be considering entering the 2024 US Senate race, has made a decision about her political future. Instead of running for the Senate next year, she will launch a campaign for the Clark County Commission. At this point, it appears that disabled American veteran Sam Brown could become the leading GOP Senate candidate.

Utah: Local GOP Mayor to Challenge Sen. Romney — Riverton Mayor Trent Skaggs (R) announced through a video presentation that he will challenge Sen. Mitt Romney in the impending GOP primary. It is likely that Skaggs will qualify through the convention process, while Sen. Romney will be forced into the signature petition qualification route. Earlier, state House Speaker Brad Wilson had filed a US Senate exploratory committee. Former US representative and Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz is also said to be weighing his potential opportunities in a race against Sen. Romney.

In any event, having to fight a primary opponent is a likelihood for the incumbent Sen. Romney.

Governor

Kentucky: Poll Shows Tight Race — Just after last week’s Kentucky Republican primary nominated Attorney General Daniel Cameron to challenge Gov. Andy Beshear (D), the co/efficient GOP polling firm, for the Cameron campaign, went into the field. The survey (May 18-19; 987 likely 2023 Kentucky general election voters) sees Gov. Beshear holding only a two-point, 45-43 percent, edge over AG Cameron.

The closeness of this ballot test result is surprising considering Gov. Beshear’s job approval rating index is very favorable. Expect this race to be in competitive mode all the way through the November election.

AZ Polls Show Trump Over Desantis, But Desantis Over Biden; Ex-House Member Considers PA Senate Bid; Tiffany Readying for Senate Run in Wisc.; Kentucky Governor Poll

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 19, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump; Florida Gov. Ron Desantis (R)

Arizona: Trump Up in AZ GOP Primary Poll; DeSantis Leads in General — Two presidential polls were released in critically important Arizona, one for the Republican primary and the other isolating the candidates against President Biden. It is abundantly clear that Republicans must bring the Grand Canyon State back into their Electoral College coalition if they are to have any chance of winning the 2024 national election.

The Republican primary survey posts former President Donald Trump to a substantial advantage over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Desantis, however, would lead President Biden in a general election poll, while Trump would not.

JL Partners (April 10-12; 550 registered Arizona Republican and Undeclared voters) finds Trump holding a 47-24-4-4-3-2 percent advantage over Gov. DeSantis, ex-Vice President Mike Pence, former US Rep. Liz Cheney, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, respectively, in the GOP primary study. Public Opinion Strategies surveyed the state’s general electorate (April 11-13; 500 likely Arizona voters; live interview) and forecasts Gov. DeSantis leading President Biden, 48-42 percent, while Trump trails 45-44 percent.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Ex-Rep. Rothfus Considering Senate — Republican Keith Rothfus served three terms in the US House from 2013 to 2019. He was defeated for re-election in 2018 when the state Supreme Court map collapsed Rep. Rothfus’ Pittsburgh area seat with that of fellow Rep. Conner Lamb (D). In that Democratic wave election year, Rep. Lamb defeated Rothfus with a 56-44 percent margin. The victorious congressman would then lose the 2022 US Senate Democratic primary to current incumbent John Fetterman, however.

Though the national and state Republican leadership are making it clear they would like to see 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick return to challenge Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D), Rothfus is indicating that he would have the ability to become a consensus candidate. There is yet no word from McCormick himself if he will again become a Senate contender. The Republican leadership certainly wants to put this seat in play but defeating Sen. Casey will be a tall order regardless of who becomes the GOP nominee.

Wisconsin: Rep. Tiffany Okays Senate Website — Reports are surfacing that Wisconsin US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) has approved the purchase of US Senate campaign domain names. The Congressman indicated, however, that this act does not necessarily mean he will actually become a statewide candidate.

Tiffany won a special election to the 7th Congressional District in 2020 with 57 percent of the vote, and then a full term with 61 percent later that year. He was re-elected in 2022 with a 62 percent vote margin. Should he run for the Senate and win the Republican primary, Rep. Tiffany would then face Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) who recently announced that she will compete for a third term.

Governor

Kentucky: AG Cameron Securing First Place in New Poll — Now less than one month before the 2023 Kentucky statewide primary election, a new Emerson College poll (April 10-11; 900 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & text) sees Attorney General Daniel Cameron continuing to lead the GOP gubernatorial primary despite being under intense attack from his main opponent.

The poll results find AG Cameron leading former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft 30-24 percent. Trailing are Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles (15 percent), disbarred attorney Eric Deters (6 percent), and state Auditor Mike Harmon (2 percent). The winner of the May 16 primary battle will then challenge Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the November general election.

Schiff Announces After Losing House Intel Committee Spot; Kentucky Gov. Beshear in Strong Shape; Watson Says No to Mississippi Gov. Run

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 30, 2023

Senate

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)

California: Now, Rep. Schiff Announces — As the California US Senate race continues to ripen even though incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) says she will not decide about her own political plans “for a couple of months,” another Democratic candidate late last week announced for the statewide position.

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), a day after being stripped of his House Intelligence Committee position, officially entered the 2024 US Senate contest that will first begin with a March primary jungle primary election. Fellow southern California Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) was the first to officially enter, doing so in the early part of this month. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) is reportedly telling supporters that she, too, will enter the Senate race. Her fellow San Francisco Bay Area colleague, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont), says he will assess the political situation after Rep. Lee makes a decision.

Rep. Schiff says he talks to Sen. Feinstein frequently and “has her blessing” to run, though he did confirm that such a statement does not mean that she is endorsing his candidacy. It is presumed that two Democrats will advance to the general election, but such did not happen in the 2022 governor’s race. Therefore, the March 5, 2024 Super Tuesday California primary will feature much more intrigue than just what happens in the presidential contest.

Governor

Kentucky: Gov. Beshear (D) in Strong Polling Shape — Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy just released a survey of the impending Kentucky governor’s race (Jan. 18-23; 625 registered Kentucky voters; 404 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; live interview) and the data finds Gov. Andy Beshear (D) with high approval ratings and recording sizable leads against all potential Republican opponents. M-D projects the governor’s job approval ratio at 61:29 percent favorable to unfavorable, certainly in the top tier when compared with other state chief executives.

Attorney General Daniel Cameron has developed a big lead in the Republican primary according to the poll, topping former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft, state Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles, and state Auditor Mike Harmon by a 39-13-8-5 percent count.

Gov. Beshear enjoys lead of at least 19 points over the latter three Republicans, but at a much closer 49-40 percent divide against AG Cameron. It is likely this race will draw closer before election day, but the incumbent governor is clearly beginning his re-election drive in the favorite’s position.

Mississippi: Sec of State Watson Says No — It appears what could have been a major 2023 Republican primary challenge for Gov. Tate Reeves later this year probably won’t materialize. Secretary of State Michael Watson (R), who was publicly contemplating a gubernatorial run, said late last week that he will not challenge the incumbent. With the candidate filing deadline scheduled for Feb. 1, it is unlikely now that a major GOP player will come forward.

Dr. John Witcher, who is an anti-Covid vaccination physician, formally declared his candidacy earlier this week but is not expected to become a strong challenger. Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr. (R), who ran against Reeves four years ago, is still a potential candidate, however.

Gallego, Kaine Announce for Senate; Cameron Leads in Kentucky; Lightfoot’s Downward Trend Continues

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 24, 2023

Senate

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) Announces for Senate.

Arizona: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) Announces for Senate — Taking quick advantage of Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix) not pursuing a US Senate run next year, fellow Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), a long-presumed 2024 Senate candidate, officially declared his candidacy yesterday. At this point, he must be considered the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination and his moving so quickly after Rep. Stanton’s announcement is intended to lock down the nomination way in advance of the candidate filing deadline.

The general election will be tough in that Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is likely to be in the field and certainly whittles away some Democratic support. While her prospects of winning a Democratic primary against Rep. Gallego or anyone else appear poor, her victory path is more reasonable in a three-way general election. As has been the case in the past three elections, the Arizona Senate race will again become a key national campaign.

Five-term Rep. Gallego says he is not opposing incumbent Sen. Sinema because “she abandoned the Democratic Party — it’s that she abandoned Arizona.” Rep. Gallego, who was long expected to be a Democratic Senate candidate long before Sen. Sinema switched her partisan allegiance in December, at this point sees no major intra-party opposition. US Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix), who would have been a top contender, but on Friday said he would not enter the statewide contest.

The Arizona nomination system is long, and we are still more than a year away from the April 2024 candidate filing deadline, so much will happen in this Senate contest before the political dust settles. Should Sen. Sinema seek re-election, a legitimate three-way race among she, presumably Rep. Gallego on the Democratic line, and a Republican nominee would yield a race in which any of those three contenders, under the right circumstances, could win the general election.

Virginia: Sen. Tim Kaine (D) Announces for Re-Election — Though some speculation was beginning to percolate that Democratic senator and 2016 vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine would retire, on Friday he announced that he will seek a third term. At this point, he becomes a prohibitive favorite to win the 2024 general election in a state that is moving into the reliably Democratic category even after the Republican success in the 2021 odd-year elections.

The budding Republican candidate field is not impressive so far, but retired Navy Capt. Hung Cao, who scored 47 pecent against Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg) in a 10th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+8 and Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 55.2D-42.99R, is apparently considering a Senate challenge. Cao would provide Republicans with a credible and interesting candidate, but with the state continuing to move toward the Democrats, which is accentuated in a presidential year, Sen. Kaine is in a strong political position as he begins his quest for a third term.

Governor

Kentucky: AG Cameron Opens with Lead — A Meeting Street Kentucky statewide poll (Jan. 9-11; 500 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; live interview & text) gives Attorney General Daniel Cameron a strong opening advantage for the party nomination in the May primary election. In a field of a dozen candidates vying for the opportunity of challenging Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear in November, AG Cameron is staked to an early 39-8-8 percent lead over state Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles and former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft.

Cameron is clearly the most well known and positively viewed of the GOP candidates. His favorable recognition and positive image among the Republican voter sample was 62 percent as compared to Quarles’ 28 percent and Craft’s 22 percent. In 2019, Cameron was elected attorney general with a 58-42 percent victory margin.

Cities

Chicago: Mayor Lightfoot’s Downward Re-Election Trends Continue — Two new polls continue to show Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) in an underdog position for re-election in likely the nation’s most important 2023 mayoral election.

The surveys, from M3 Strategies (Dec. 11-13; 440 likely Chicago voters; SMS text to web) and a more recent study from Lester & Associates for the Sophie King campaign (Jan. 9-14; 600 likely Chicago voters; live interview), find Mayor Lightfoot trailing in the Feb. 28 non-partisan primary election. There is also a fair chance that she will fail to even qualify for the April 4 runoff, a secondary election that appears inevitable since no one is close to obtaining majority support.

Both polls find US Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) claiming first place. The M3 poll showed Lightfoot dropping to third position behind former Chicago budget director Paul Vallas, while Lester & Associates sees the incumbent mayor holding the second slot. The M3 poll found Lightfoot saddled with a terrible 25:74 percent favorable to unfavorable ratio. This latter statistic might be most indicative in suggesting that she will fail to win re-election.