Democrats Down in All States Requiring Voter Registration With Political Party Affiliation

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Democratic Party

Former President Joe Biden campaigns prior to his election to the presidency in 2020. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

In 31 states, individuals registering to vote must list a political party affiliation to do so, and the latest trends suggest significant partisan changes.

The most stunning pattern when comparing the latest registration numbers with those found from Joe Biden’s victorious presidential election in 2020 is that Democratic preference is down in all 31 party registration states. This does not necessarily mean there are fewer Democratic registered voters in all instances, but their percentage of the entire registered voter universe in each of these states is lower than in 2020.

In comparison, Republican registration under the same time parameters is up as a percentage to the whole in 23 of the 31 states. The Independent, or Non-affiliated option is up in 18 of the party registration state universes.

Further research would likely lead to the conclusion that Democrats are attracting fewer younger and new voters when compared with past performance. Additionally, the changes in voter registration preferences may be a key reason as to why ballot test polling has been less accurate than in years past.

Florida is a good example of the polling accuracy factor. In voter registration, we have seen a dramatic shift since 2020. In the Biden year, Democrats had a Florida voter registration edge of 36.3 percent to the Republicans’ 35.7 percent. Non-affiliated voter percentage was 26.4, while an additional 1.7 percent of the registered universe was affiliated with a minor party recognized under the state’s election law.

Today, according to the latest available figures, 39.6 percent of Florida’s registered voters are Republicans and 31.3 percent are Democrats, while Non-affiliateds comprise 26.0 percent of the registered universe and an additional 3.0 percent are members of minor parties.

Polling in Florida, according to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives, throughout the 2024 cycle projected President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott leading their Democratic opponents by a respective seven percent average (Trump) and five-point margin (Scott), yet Trump won by more than 13 percentage points and Scott just under 13. One reason for the big polling miss is likely a failure to properly emphasize the large voter registration shift in the Republicans’ favor.

Today, there are a larger number of registered Republicans than Democrats in 12 of the 31 party reg places. The Non-affiliated option is the top registrant in an additional 10 states, while Democrats lead in only nine, which is down three states (Florida, Kentucky, and Nevada) from the party’s standing in 2020.

The Republican majority or plurality states are: Arizona, Florida, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

The Non-affiliated majorities or pluralities are: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, and Rhode Island.

Democratic Party registration is tops in: California, Delaware, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, and Pennsylvania. Democrats, however, hold an outright majority of registered voters in only Maryland.

The three states with the largest swing since 2020 toward Republicans are Idaho, Wyoming, and Iowa. The GOP gained a net 8.4 percentage points in Idaho, 7.4 in Wyoming, and 5 points in Iowa. The party’s biggest drop, however, came in Colorado where the GOP lost 2.7 points. The next highest losses were in Delaware (2.3 net percent) and Nevada (1.6 percent drop).

As mentioned above, Democrats lost affiliation ground in all 31 states. Their three biggest drops, all down between six and seven percentage points, occurred in West Virginia, Nevada, and Rhode Island.

The Non-affiliated gains and losses are more erratic. The Independent, Non-affiliated, or “Declined to State” category saw gains in 18 states but losses in 12 others. Louisiana does not report Non-affiliated numbers. The biggest Non-affiliated gainers were Nevada (up 9.1 net percentage points from 2020), Massachusetts (7.3), Rhode Island (5.8), and Colorado (5.4). The fact that two of the most loyal Democratic states, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, are among the top gainers in Non-affiliated voter registration is another bad sign for the Democrats.

The states with the highest Non-affiliated decline are Alaska (-12.1 net percentage points in comparison with 2020), South Dakota (-9.8), and Idaho (-6.4).

Total voter registration is up in only 19 of the 31 states, meaning there are fewer registered voters today in 12 of the party registration states than in 2020.

The downturn is largely due to population loss (Connecticut; Louisiana) or states performing their proscribed registration purge. The latter process eliminates voters who have passed away, moved, or have not voted in a specific number of consecutive general elections as dictated by their individual state laws.

Texas Senate: Rep. Hunt on the Board

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 19, 2025

Senate

Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston)

It is common knowledge that Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is trailing in every Texas Republican primary poll, but now we see the first survey that includes Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) as a potential candidate.

A Super PAC has spent seven figures running television ads in the state’s major media markets with the exception of Houston to promote Hunt. The ads are not running in the two-term Congressman’s home market where he already has name identification. It is evident that Hunt is seriously exploring entering the Senate contest, which will add a new dynamic to the Cornyn primary challenge.

The Senate Leadership Fund, an outside Super PAC that supports GOP incumbents, semi-publicized a recent poll result that the organization conducted. The Tarrance Group conducted the research study, but the sampling universe size was not released. The pollsters were in the field during the April 27 through May 1 period. It is assumed the Republican primary ballot test queried only GOP primary voters.

Such being the case, the first ballot test was between Sen. Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, and the results broke 56-40 percent in the challenger’s favor. Adding Rep. Hunt to the questionnaire sees the Paxton support number dropping to 44 percent, while Sen. Cornyn falls to 34 percent, but the gap between he and Paxton closed. Rep. Hunt then posted a respectable 19 percent considering he is not yet a candidate.

Six polls have been conducted of the Texas Senate Republican primary since the beginning of the year, and all show Cornyn trailing Paxton. The challenger averages 48.5 percent over the six surveys, while Cornyn posts a mean average of just 33.5 percent, and reaches the 40 percent plateau in only one of the six studies.

The common analysis of the Texas campaign suggests that Sen. Cornyn would fare well in the general election if he can win renomination, while the Republicans would be in clear danger of losing a Senate race to a Democrat for the first time since a 1993 special election if Paxton becomes the party nominee.

The SLF Tarrance poll then tested the hypothetical general election and finds such an analysis basically ringing true, but the numbers are all very close. Paired with former Congressman Colin Allred, who was the 2024 Democratic Senate nominee against Sen. Ted Cruz (R), the ballot test breaks for Cornyn by six points while Hunt posts a four-point edge. Paxton, however, trails ex-Rep. Allred by a single percentage point.

The Democrats, however, may not have a consensus candidate. Allred has not yet committed to running again, while former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D), who failed to win two Texas statewide campaigns and fared poorly in a national Democratic presidential nomination battle in 2020, is confirming that he is considering declaring his candidacy. It remains to be seen if either, or both, of these former US Representatives will enter the 2026 Senate contest.

The more pressing question is how will a multi-candidate primary race affect Cornyn?

Typically, in states that employ a runoff nomination system, an incumbent forced into such a secondary election loses. Such is the case because a majority of the primary electorate has already rejected the incumbent, making it difficult for him or her to quickly re-establish a majority coalition.

Certainly, Rep. Hunt, and possibly others, joining the race would likely produce a primary first-place finisher with only plurality support. In such a scenario, we would more than likely see Sen. Cornyn securing a runoff position. Whether he would fare better against either Paxton or Hunt remains an open question.

The Texas primary is the earliest in the election cycle and is scheduled for March 3. If the previously mentioned runoff scenario is the end result, the subsequent two-person contest would culminate on May 26.

The Texas race will prove a critical factor in the Republicans’ bid to retain the Senate majority. Should a Democrat score an upset win in Texas, the party’s chances of regaining chamber control would grow exponentially.

The Texas Senate contest may well prove the lynchpin of the 2026 national US Senate campaign cycle.

The DNC’s Looming Decisions

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 16, 2025

DNC

Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been appearing in rallies across the country with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

Though the 2028 presidential election is years away, the Democratic National Committee leadership has looming structural decisions to make well in advance of the first nomination votes being cast.

Prospective national candidates are already beginning to make positioning moves. For example, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is attempting to move closer to the political center with his comments this week regarding the homeless and his new podcast that features guests and topics not always aligned with the ideological left.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), conducting a series of public events with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), is moving even further left in an attempt to capture the Sanders’ coalition.

Former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is bypassing a Michigan US Senate campaign to prepare for another presidential run and already is visiting Iowa, while Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) is conducting a nationwide anti-Trump tour.

All of these individual strategic moves are illustrative regarding how each person attempts to best position him or herself toward grabbing an early advantage in the forthcoming intra-party brawl for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. Before the campaigns even get underway, however, the national party leaders face controversial rule-making decisions well in advance of any contender stepping forward to campaign in the early states.

The first such task is to determine just where are the early states. You will remember that the Democrats changed the political calendar before the 2024 election when they dropped Iowa and New Hampshire from the top two slots and chose to begin in South Carolina.

The 2024 schedule does not mean the party leaders have to adhere to the same progression in 2028, and as such the individual candidates will want their say in deciding not only the geographic order, but potentially other structural rules that the DNC Rules Committee could recommend be changed.

Since the early states have proven crucial in developing momentum for eventual party nominees, all 57 voting Democratic Party entities (states, territories, and the group of those Democrats living abroad) are likely to soon begin jockeying for position. Without a Democratic President in the White House, it falls upon the DNC to take the lead in setting the ground rules for the 2028 party nomination structure.

With big state Governors such as Newsom, Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, and Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro likely to become presidential candidates, we can see a coalition forming to recommend that the mid-Atlantic states secure early positioning.

The southern contingent, led by Gov. Andy Beshear (KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (NC), will want their region placed early on the calendar, while some of the lesser-known contenders should advocate for smaller states going first since they are more responsive to grassroots campaign tactics that unfamiliar contenders need to give them a fighting chance.

Geographic order changes will not be the only rule discussed. We can expect the DNC to adopt a formalized procedure in the event of replacing a presidential candidate with pledged delegates who exits prior to the national convention. When President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, there was no set procedure to replace him. Thus, the committee members had to adopt a plan on the fly that included virtual voting and other procedures, which caused some controversy among certain DNC members.

Since the Rules Committee must recommend an early state schedule to the full DNC voting membership and may look at adopting an official presidential candidate replacement procedure, they could also consider changing the delegate apportionment formula.

With so many candidates likely to run, a proposal from the big state DNC members to increase their delegate share could certainly come before the rules panel. Also, some of the candidates will likely advocate restoring the Super Delegates’ (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) ability to vote on the first ballot.

The 2028 presidential campaign will unofficially begin after the 2026 midterm elections, but the party leadership’s’ first significant hurdles will come in the relative near future.

Redistricting:
Lawsuits Filed in Wisconsin

Current Wisconsin Congressional Districts Map (Click to enlarge or go here: Legis.Wisconsin.Gov)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 15, 2025

Redistricting

The Down Ballot political blog is running a story indicating that two redistricting lawsuits have been filed against the Wisconsin congressional map. Changing the plan as the plaintiffs desire would likely lead to Republicans losing at least two members from the current delegation.

Redistricting was a focal point of state Supreme Court campaigns in the last two Wisconsin judicial election cycles. Democrats won the critical elections in 2023 and earlier this year to secure the liberal court majority.

Before the 2024 elections when Justice Janet Protasiewicz was elected, it appeared the court would redraw the congressional districts. Protasiewicz, running for the post in 2023, spoke repeatedly on the campaign trail about changing the congressional map. Her election gave the Democrats the majority they needed to do so, but they surprisingly stopped short. While redrawing the state Senate and Assembly district borders, the court left the congressional districts untouched without explanation.

Some political observers theorize that the court played a partisan game with the congressional district issue. The thought was the majority wanted to shield Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), on the ballot in 2024, from facing a more difficult opponent such as Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville). The Congressman had a multi-million dollar war chest that could have been wholly converted to a Senate campaign if his House district were made unwinnable for a Republican.

If this was even part of the reason that the court did not address the congressional districts, it may have been a sound partisan move. Sen. Baldwin won re-election over GOP businessman Eric Hovde with just an eight-tenths of one percent margin. Therefore, against a perceived more difficult opponent, the Senator could have easily lost. Thus, waiting an extra election cycle to redraw the federal plan may have paid the Democrats’ a dividend.

The principal argument for a redraw is the Republicans’ 6-2 majority in the Wisconsin congressional delegation. Democrats argue the map is a partisan gerrymander because Badger State elections often end with one party or the other winning races by one or two percentage points, or even less, as was the case for Sen. Baldwin in 2024. Partisan gerrymandering has been the subject of many cases, but it is still not fully determined whether a political party can, in effect, be considered a protected class.

A second lawsuit claims the districts have an uneven population and therefore need adjustment. This is an odd argument since all districts change throughout the course of a decade, thus every constructed political map is obsolete under this theory. This case, however, could allow the court to declare the map invalid without addressing the partisan gerrymandering issue.

It is most likely that the two most endangered Republicans under a redraw situation would be Reps. Steil and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) in the 1st and 3rd Districts, respectively.

The 1st CD lies in the far southeastern corner of Wisconsin bordering Illinois and Lake Michigan. It contains a small portion of Milwaukee County before moving south to annex Kenosha and Racine counties. It also contains parts of Rock and Walworth counties to the west. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean is 49.4R – 48.3D. President Trump carried the seat over Kamala Harris in 2024 with a 51.5 – 47.0 percent majority. Four years earlier, he topped President Biden 50.3 – 48.3 percent.

District 3 lies in the southwestern part of the state anchored in the cities of La Crosse and Eau Claire. The 3rd is comprised of 14 Wisconsin counties and parts of five others. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean is 48.9D – 48.5R, making it one of the most politically even seats in the country.

President Trump, however, outperformed the 3rd District stats in the past two elections, defeating Harris, 52.9 – 45.5 percent, and President Biden, 51.5 – 46.8 percent. Rep. Van Orden averaged 51.5 percent in his two victorious elections. Prior to the Republican winning two consecutive elections here, former Rep. Ron Kind (D) represented the district for 13 consecutive terms.

Sitting in between these districts is Rep. Mark Pocan’s (D-Town of Vermont; Madison) 2nd CD. It is here where the region’s Democrats reside. This district’s partisan lean is 69.7D – 28.2R and houses the most liberal county in the state, Dane, which contains the capital city of Madison and provides the district its population anchor (575,347 residents).

A possible boundary change would shift Democrats from Rep. Gwen Moore’s (D-Milwaukee) safe Democratic 4th District and move them south to the 1st. Various Republican and Democratic voters would then be swapped between the 1st and 2nd. In order to feed more Democrats into the 3rd, we would likely see more Democrats shifted from the 2nd and swapped for Republican voters.

The trick for the Democratic map drawers is to shift enough Democrats into both the 1st and 3rd to unseat Steil and Van Orden, while at the same time keeping enough in District 2 to keep Rep. Pocan’s seat safe. This may prove an interesting balancing act, and chances are that either Steil or Van Orden, or possibly both, will still have a fighting chance of winning re-election.

Assuming the court orders a congressional redraw in time for the 2026 election suggests Reps. Steil and Van Orden’s political circumstances will be far more difficult than what they face today.

Rep. Feenstra to Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Governor

Iowa Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City)

It was a bit of a surprise when in April, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) announced that she would not seek a third full term next year. Because the active politicos believed she would run, it has taken awhile for major candidates to enter what should be a relatively competitive open Governor’s race. Now, however, candidates are beginning to come forward.

Reports from Hawkeye State indicate that three-term Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) has filed documents to enter the open 2026 Iowa Governor’s race. Almost simultaneously, State Auditor Rob Sand announced his intention to compete for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, thus possibly previewing what could become the general election campaign.

While state Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) and former state Rep. Brad Sherman are in the race, other major Republican potential contenders have either publicly declined to run or not taken action to move forward with a campaign.

The three other Republican congressional delegation members, Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire/Davenport), Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids), and Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant/ Des Moines) have all said they will not enter the Governor’s race and plan to seek re-election in 2026.

Lt. Gov. Chris Cournoyer (R) has announced for State Auditor. Attorney General Brenna Bird (R) is still a potential gubernatorial entrant, but the prevailing wisdom suggests she will seek re-election. Therefore, Rep. Feenstra should already be considered the early favorite for the party nomination.

On the Democratic side, Sand is the party’s only statewide elected official. There was some conjecture that he might challenge Sen. Joni Ernst (R), but when Gov. Reynolds decided not to seek a third term, it became probable that he would head for the open statewide election.

Potential primary opponents for Sand include state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City), who lost opposite Congressman Feenstra in 2020.

Three-term state Sen. Randy Feenstra came to Congress in 2021, after defeating by 10 percentage points then-Rep. Steve King in the 2020 Republican primary. He would go onto post a 62-38 percent win against Scholten in the associated general election. In his two re-election campaigns, Rep. Feenstra has averaged 67.2 percent of the vote.

The Congressman not seeking re-election means that now 16 seats will be open (9D-7R) heading into the next election. Two of the districts are vacant, AZ-7 and TX-18, due to the deaths of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Sylvester Turner (D-TX). Both positions will be filled in 2025 special elections.

Iowa’s 4th District encompasses 36 west and central Iowa counties. The seat contains the entire South Dakota/Nebraska border region before stretching eastward to annex the city of Marshalltown, which lies northeast of Des Moines. The principal population centers are Sioux City, Council Bluffs, Ft. Dodge, and Marshalltown.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 61.9R – 34.9D partisan lean, making the 4th Iowa’s safest Republican seat. The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators rank IA-4 as the 81st-safest seat in the House Republican Conference. In the last two presidential elections, Donald Trump carried the district with margins of 65-34 and 62-36 percent over Kamala Harris and Joe Biden, respectively.

Testifying to the 4th’s strength as a Republican stronghold, in a close 2018 gubernatorial election Gov. Reynolds was elected statewide because of her overwhelming performance in this district. The Reynolds margin here was so large it enabled her to overcome losing the other three congressional districts.

This all suggests that Congressman Feenstra’s successor will be found in the Republican primary. We can, therefore, expect a crowded GOP contest.

Iowa recognizes plurality victories, but only if the leading candidate secures at least 35 percent of the vote. The top finishing candidate falling short of the 35 percent support threshold means a post-primary district convention would be called in which party delegates from each of the district’s 36 counties will choose a nominee.

Georgia Senate Race:
Carter In; Greene Out

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Senate

Georgia Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah)

Now that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has publicly declined to seek the Peach State’s Republican US Senate nomination, the political dominoes are beginning to fall.

Soon after the Kemp announcement at the end of last week, Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), who said he would run statewide if Gov. Kemp did not, announced that he will compete for the party’s Senate nomination. Quickly after the Carter declaration, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) released a written social media statement indicating that she will not enter the Senate campaign.

Despite Ms. can candidates as are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and Insurance Commissioner John King.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has also “not closed the door” on running for the Senate, but he is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race if he decides to run for a different statewide position. Attorney General Chris Carr (R) long ago announced his campaign for Governor.

The eventual GOP winner will face first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). The party nomination may not be decided until late June of next year, however, if the multi-candidate May Republican primary evolves into a runoff election between the top two finishers should no one secure majority support.

The Senator has raised almost $32 million during his four-plus years in office and has $11 million in his campaign account. Clearly, the Georgia Senate race will be one of the most hard-fought and expensive campaigns of the 2026 election cycle.

Since President Trump first won here in 2016, the Georgia races, for the most part, have yielded very close results. Previously, the state was reliably Republican, but demographic changes principally due to large numbers of African Americans moving from other southern states to the Atlanta metro area for better job opportunities, according to a Pew Research study, have made the Democrats much more competitive. Thus, the state is now viewed as politically purple, meaning their elections routinely fall into the toss-up category.

In 2016, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, 50.7 – 45.6 percent. Two years later, then-Secretary of State Brian Kemp won a close 50.2 – 48.8 percent gubernatorial victory against Democrat Stacey Abrams. Four years afterTrump’s initial close Georgia victory, he would lose to Joe Biden in an official margin of 11,779 votes statewide, or just under three-tenths of one percentage point.

In that same 2020 election, Ossoff would score a one-point victory over Sen. David Perdue (R), and Rev. Rafael Warnock (D) would win a two-point special election decision over appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler.

The irregular election was necessary to fill the balance of the term after veteran Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) had passed away, and Loeffler was appointed to serve until an election was held. Both Senate seats, however, were decided in close post-election runoffs since Georgia is one of only three states that require majority victories in general elections.

Republicans would rebound to a degree in 2022 when Gov. Kemp scored a more decisive 53-46 percent victory over Abrams. Sen. Warnock, however, again recorded a two-point run-off victory to secure a six-year term, this time against former University of Georgia football star Herschel Walker (R) who was routinely characterized as a weak candidate. In 2024, the Georgia electorate again turned to Trump in another tight finish, 50.7 – 48.5 percent, this time over Vice President Kamala Harris.

The recent electoral history sets the stage for what should be another very close 2026 general election. Early polling suggested that Gov. Kemp, if he were to become a candidate, would have enjoyed a small lead over Sen. Ossoff. Sans Kemp, the incumbent begins with more substantial survey margins against any other prospective Republican opponent.

Without Kemp, the Georgia Senate contest won’t have the national political star power that the national media would have focused upon during the midterm election cycle, but this race still has the potential of becoming highly competitive with a different Republican nominee.

Despite the change in status, the Georgia Senate race will remain as one of the keys to determining the size of the next Senate majority.

LePage Returns to Maine (Again)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 12, 2025

Governor

Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Former two-term Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R), who left the state for Florida only to return in 2022 to launch an unsuccessful run for his old job before leaving again, is coming back for yet another political run.

This week, LePage declared his federal candidacy against Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) for the state’s northern congressional district.

Rep. Golden was first elected in 2018, defeating then-GOP incumbent Bruce Poliquin thanks to the Ranked Choice Voting system used for Maine’s federal offices. Poliquin won the actual vote with a greater than 2,000 ballot margin but fell below the majority mark. The resulting Ranked Choice rounds would catapult Golden to his first congressional victory.

Ranked Choice Voting has helped him in subsequent elections, as well. The Congressman has averaged 51.7 percent of the vote over his four campaigns counting the Ranked Choice rounds, thus suggesting this seat is highly competitive. In 2024, Rep. Golden defeated then-state Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R) with only 50.3 percent of the vote.

It had been presumed that Theriault would return for a re-match, but the entrance of former Gov. LePage may change his plans. State Rep. Mike Soboleski (R-Phillips), who challenged Theriault for the GOP nomination in 2024 but lost 67-33 percent, said this week that he too is considering running again.

Maine’s 2nd District is comprised of ten of the state’s 16 counties, six of which border Canada, and part of Kennebec County, which houses the capital city of Augusta. Maine is one of two states – Nebraska being the other – that allows its congressional districts to determine its own electoral vote in national elections. Though the Democratic presidential nominees have carried the state in the three Donald Trump election years, the current President won the 2nd district in each of those elections.

Even while President Trump carried ME-2 with a 53-44 percent spread last November, Rep. Golden managed to hang on, winning re-election by a slight seven-tenths of one percent margin (2,706 votes). In 2020, despite Trump losing the state to Joe Biden 52-44 percent, his 2nd District victory margin was 52-45 percent, or a raw number spread of just under 28,000 votes. In 2016, the Hillary Clinton statewide vote split was much closer, defeating Trump 46-43 percent. The Trump margin in the 2nd CD was 51-41 percent, meaning a raw vote margin of 36,360.

Considering these presidential numbers, and former Gov. LePage performing well in the 2nd CD during all of his statewide runs, this seat will certainly be in play next year.

At the beginning of the election cycle, speculation surrounded Rep. Golden about a possible run for Governor. He largely ruled out challenging Sen. Susan Collins (R) because he is her former staff member, but he clearly would be a strong general election gubernatorial candidate.

Securing the statewide Democratic nomination, however, might be a different story. Golden is one of only two Democrats – Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) being the other – who will vote with the Republicans on certain issues. Thus, his legislative record might prove detrimental in a hyper-partisan Democratic primary that now features two strong liberals, appointed Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and businessman Angus King, III, son of Maine’s junior Independent Senator of the same name.

So far, however, Rep. Golden has not made any move toward the Governor’s race and in an interview early this year hinted that he might not seek any office in 2026, including running for re-election.

Looking at the Congressman’s 1st Quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure report, however, suggests he is planning to remain in elective politics. Golden raised over $474,000 since the beginning of the year and held almost $449,000 in his congressional account at the end of March. Both of these numbers are solid for a Maine US House race, which is a strong clue that the Congressman is moving forward with a re-election campaign.

A Golden-LePage 2nd District race will be seriously competitive. Republicans will undoubtedly invest here since offensive opportunities are going to be extremely valuable to the GOP’s chances of holding, and possibly expanding upon, their current slim majority.

Two US Reps Announce for Illinois Senate Race; More Likely to Come

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 9, 2025

Senate

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg)

Two members of the Illinois US House delegation have officially announced their intention to compete in the state’s open Senate race, and a third may soon join the fray.

Last week, Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) announced that he will retire after what will be 44 years of congressional service counting his time in both the House and Senate. Left in his wake will be a highly competitive statewide Democratic primary to be decided in plurality fashion. The Illinois primary is scheduled for March 17, 2026.

Considering the Illinois electorate’s voting history since the turn of the century, winning the statewide Democratic primary is typically tantamount to also clinching the general election.

Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) announced their Senate campaigns this week, and Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) is soon expected to follow. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D), who both Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D) support, is also an announced candidate.

Public Policy Polling released the first poll of the newly open Democratic Senate primary. The survey April 9-30; 674 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) found Rep. Krishnamoorthi leading the pack of contenders with 20 percent compared to Rep. Underwood’s 16 percent; Lt. Gov. Stratton posted 13 percent, and Rep. Kelly trailed with 8 percent support.

In terms of name recognition, however, Rep. Underwood leads the group. According to the PPP data, she records a 55 percent statewide name recognition score, which is surprising for a House member who represents just under 6% of the state’s population. Rep. Krishnamoorthi posts 50 percent name ID. Only 42 percent of the polling universe recognized the lone statewide official, Lt. Gov. Stratton. Rep. Kelly is least well known, recording a name identification score of only 31 percent.

According to Jim Williams, the Public Policy Polling representative that conducted the study, Stratton jumps ahead of the others “after voters learn more about each candidate.” This is largely in reference to the pollsters informing the respondents that Stratton has received public endorsements from Gov. Pritzker and Sen. Duckworth.

After the respondents hear the push questions, the ballot test changes to 26-17-17-9 percent with Stratton leading Rep. Krishnamoorthi, Rep. Underwood, and Rep. Kelly, respectively.

The early money count, however, greatly favors Rep. Krishnamoorthi. According to the 1st quarter Federal Election Commission filings, the northern Illinois Congressman posts just under $19.5 million in his campaign account. Reps. Kelly and Underwood have $2.0 million and $1.1 million, respectively. For the federal officials, all of their cash-on-hand money is transferable to a US Senate campaign account.

Since Lt. Gov. Stratton just formally announced her candidacy, she obviously did not file a 1st quarter disclosure report. The Democratic Lieutenant Governors’ Association, however, has endorsed her candidacy and a spokesman said the organization was committed to spending “seven figures” to help elect Stratton. She is also counting on a major Super PAC contribution from Gov. Pritzker. The latter may or may not happen since the Governor will likely be on the ballot himself, striving for a third term in an expensive state in which to campaign.

Adding the retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston), the 17-member Illinois congressional delegation will already feature at least three open seats, and four if Rep. Underwood makes the expected move into the Senate race.

The 2026 Illinois Senate race will receive a great deal of attention in the early portion of the election cycle since the early Democratic primary in March will almost assuredly determine who will win the general election. We can count on seeing much more about this race as the open campaign continues to develop.

Georgia Gov. Kemp Out; Which
Other Governors Could Be In?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 8, 2025

Senate

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s announcement earlier in the week that he would not challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year was surprising to many but not all political observers.

In fact, it’s possible that we will see all of the Governors or ex-Governors who could run for the Senate in the various states take a pass on challenging a Senatorial incumbent or competing in an open seat situation.

The Kemp announcement now unfreezes the Republicans waiting in the wings who want to run statewide. Individuals who have expressed interest or at least confirm they are considering challenging Sen. Ossoff, include four members of the US House delegation. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Also counted among the possible candidates are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper conducted a statewide Georgia poll (April 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) and found Gov. Kemp, if he were to challenge Sen. Ossoff, leading the prospective race 49-46 percent.

Now, without Kemp in the candidate field, the advantage turns to Ossoff. The AJC poll found him leading King 51-38 percent, and topping Rep. Greene, 54-37 percent. Also tested was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger who has said he’s considering a Senate bid but is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race. Raffensperger, however, polls best within this group against Sen. Ossoff, trailing 48-39 percent in the AJC poll. Reps. Carter, McCormick, and Collins were not tested.

The outlook suggests that the Georgia Republicans will now see a crowded Senate primary field, meaning it will become difficult for one candidate to win the nomination outright. The 2026 Peach State election calendar has not yet been set, but the likely statewide primary date will be May 19, 2026, with a runoff for the top two finishers, should no one reach the 50 percent threshold, probably scheduled for June 16. Therefore, the most plausible projection is that the Georgia GOP won’t have an official Senate nominee until late June of next year.

With Sen. Ossoff already possessing over $11 million in his campaign account, a number that will grow exponentially before the Republicans nominate their Senate candidate, he is in a favorable pre-election position.

Elsewhere, there are a dozen situations where a Governor or ex-Governor could conceivably run for an open Senate seat or challenge an incumbent of the opposite party.

Of the 12, we see one reverse situation. Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) appears intent on running for an open gubernatorial position.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could look at an open Senate seat campaign if Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) decides to run for Governor as expected, and Maine’s Janet Mills (D) could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) with the encouragement of many Democratic leaders. Neither, however, is likely to run for Senate because both are over or nearing 80 years old.

Aside from Gov. Kemp, four other Governors have already turned down opportunities to run for the Senate.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) has already endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), while the Governor himself appears to be preparing a third run for his current position.

Term-limited Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is very likely to run for President in 2028 and will therefore bypass a run for her state’s open Senate seat.

Like Gov. Pritzker in Illinois, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, has endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to replace retiring US Sen. Tina Smith (D). As with Pritzker, Gov. Walz is preparing to run for a third term.

New Hampshire ex-Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who like Gov. Kemp in Georgia would give the Republicans their best chance of converting a Democratic Senate seat, has also said he will not run in 2026. His future plans are only speculated upon, but a future presidential bid would not be out of the question.

Term-limited Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is not mentioned as a possible presidential candidate, but party leaders are encouraging her to challenge first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). It remains to be seen what the Governor will decide for 2026.

Two term-limited Governors and one ex-state chief executive are at the forefront of presidential prognostication, yet each sees a viable Senate situation developing in their respective state.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) could challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D) next year, since his one term will expire in early 2026. Though clearly looking at a presidential run, Gov. Youngkin, and any Republican, would face an uphill battle against Vice President J.D. Vance for the party nomination. A race against Sen. Warner would also be uphill, so Gov. Youngkin may see his electoral window closing.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) could enter what promises to be a very crowded 2028 Democratic presidential campaign. Should only one of these two run, that individual, either Beshear or Cooper coming from the southern region, would be a viable prospective nominee because of their opportunity to accumulate a large quantity of delegate support from the vote-rich South.

Signs are pointing to a situation where the aforementioned Governors or ex-Governors follow the Sununu and Kemp example and decline their party leaders overtures to launch a 2026 Senate campaign.

A Senate Review – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Senate

Today concludes our two-part series covering the latest in competitive US Senate campaigns. This edition examines developing contests in Michigan through Virginia.

In this report, if a state is not listed, it means the incumbent is currently expected to seek re-election and face little in the way of credible opposition.

Michigan — The 2024 open Senate contest surprisingly proved to be the tightest in the nation, so a second open contest in successive election cycles will draw much greater early national attention and resources. Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers, despite being badly outspent, lost to then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) by just 19,006 votes statewide. He returns to again battle for a Senate seat; this time left open because Sen. Gary Peters (D) is retiring.

Rogers should be a clear favorite for the Republican nomination, though Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) says he is considering entering the race. For the Democrats, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are announced candidates. Term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel is also a potential Democratic candidate. Count on this race being considered a toss-up all the way through the Nov. 4, 2026, election day.

Minnesota — Sen. Tina Smith (D) is not seeking a second six-year term, which opens the door for a highly competitive Democratic primary. In the race are Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. Others may join but count on this race advancing through the party endorsing convention to the August primary ballot.

Republicans, at this point, do not have a credible announced candidate, which means it is highly likely that Sen. Smith’s successor will be the Democratic primary winner.

New Hampshire — Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) will retire at the end of the current Congress, and Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is well on his way to becoming a consensus Democratic candidate long before next year’s candidate filing deadline. Already publicly endorsing Pappas are a host of New Hampshire Democratic leaders including Sen. Shaheen, the state’s junior Senator, Maggie Hassan, Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua), former four-term Gov. John Lynch, and ex-Rep. Annie Kuster.

Republicans lost their best candidate option when former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu declined to run. Ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who lost to Sen. Shaheen in 2014 on a 51-48 percent count, looks to be running again and could well win the nomination. Without Sununu in the race, however, the edge goes to the Democrats particularly with Rep. Pappas performing so well early.

North Carolina — This is yet another situation where party leaders are trying to convince a sitting or former Governor to challenge the opposite party’s incumbent Senator. Ex-Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024 under his state’s election law, remains uncommitted about challenging Sen. Thom Tillis (R).

In the race for the Democrats, however, is former Rep. Wiley Nickel who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 because of an adverse redistricting map. Originally, Nickel said he would stand aside for Cooper but does not appear to be saying such any longer. This could be a clue that the former Governor will not run for Senate to instead prepare for a 2028 presidential campaign.

The nature of North Carolina politics suggests that the 2026 Senate race will again be close irrespective of whose running. The state traditionally features tight statewide elections in almost every cycle. Consider this race a toss-up, particularly if Cooper decides to run, though former Congressman Nickel will prove an able candidate.

Ohio — As in Florida, Ohio will host a special election to fill the balance of a current Senate term. After then-Sen. J.D. Vance was elected Vice President, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) appointed Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) to the Senate seat. Husted now must run in 2026 to fill the balance of the six-year term, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint.

Last week, former Representative and 2022 US Senate nominee Tim Ryan (D) announced he would not challenge Sen. Husted but still expresses interest in the Governor’s race.

Ohio is another state where potential candidates, in this case Democrats, are frozen in time waiting for a decision from another. Former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat to Bernie Moreno (R) in November, is a potential candidate for both Senate and Governor. Until Brown decides where to run, if anywhere at all, expect little movement among other prospective Democratic candidates.

South Carolina — Talk of a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has died down since both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) are looking toward an open Governor’s race. Sen. Graham showing almost $16 million in his campaign account also is dissuading potential challengers from both parties. At this point, expect Sen. Graham to have an easy road to re-election.

South Dakota — Recently, Sen. Mike Rounds (R) stated that he would not enter the open Governor’s race which would be an attempt to regain a political position he once held. Curiously, he did not announce a bid for re-election in declining to run for Governor.

Rounds is still expected to stand for election to the Senate in 2026, and with his state featuring a Governor’s race that could yield a major Republican primary battle, the two-term federal incumbent is expected to breeze through another re-election next year.

Texas — Several recent polls show incumbent Sen. John Cornyn badly trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is an announced Republican primary competitor. The polling, however, is not the full story.

A non-profit organization, Standing for Texas, is running ads in the major media markets with the exception of Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R) hometown of Houston, positively profiling the Congressman and clearly laying the groundwork for a statewide run. Curiously, however, the latest polls do not include Rep. Hunt as a Senate candidate, even though signs are clear that he intends to enter the contest. The addition of Rep. Hunt, and/or other candidates, could certainly change the campaign trajectory.

Sen. Cornyn’s problem is that large numbers within the Texas GOP base believe him to be a RINO (Republican In Name Only) because he has strayed from the typical party position on several issues. A fair characterization or not, it is clear that Sen. Cornyn will have to neutralize this image in order to forge a winning coalition.

On the Democratic side, no major candidate has yet come forth but 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred, now a former Congressman, confirms he is considering returning for a 2026 campaign. Ex-Congressman and failed presidential, Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke says he is not “closing the door” on entering the Senate race. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) is another possibility as is astronaut Terry Verts.

It appears we will see a great deal of early action from candidates in both parties for the Texas Senate race. The party primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate secures majority support. Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, expect the Texas Senate campaign cycle to yield a tough and close months-long campaign.

Virginia — Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for a fourth term, and unless Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) decides to challenge him, the Democratic incumbent should have little trouble again winning re-election. If the Governor does run, the contest will prove close, but the Senator would still be rated as at least a slight favorite to win the general election.

Gov. Youngkin is another of the state chief executives said to have presidential aspirations, so it remains to be seen if he is looking toward launching a national campaign, running for the Senate, or simply retiring from elective politics. Virginia is the only state in the country that limits its Governors to one term, so Youngkin’s future political options are narrow.