Again, Cornyn Trails

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 5, 2025

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

The Houston Chronicle has published a story about a new poll that Trump 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale released to an HC reporter about the upcoming Texas Senate Republican primary.

The ballot test again shows incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) badly trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is an announced primary competitor. Parscale was a consultant for Paxton’s 2022 successful re-election campaign.

The survey release includes sketchy methodological information, however. The firm conducting the poll is not identified and the sampling period is listed as only “mid-April.” The respondent universe consists of 605 “voters.” It is also unclear whether the respondents were questioned through live interview, an interactive voice response system, text, or online website.

In any event, the ballot test finds Paxton leading Sen. Cornyn, 50-33 percent. Even if President Trump were to endorse Sen. Cornyn, the incumbent still does not forge ahead, though this poll shows he would close to within a 44-38 percent deficit. While the spreads seem head scratching, they are in relative concurrence with other released polls of the race, even one conducted as far back as 2022.

In early March, Lake Research Associates, a Democratic firm, polled the Texas Republican electorate and found Paxton topping Cornyn, 38-27 percent. In early February, the Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm released their results that are similar to the Parscale poll’s current figures, 53-28 percent. Victory Insights January poll found a 42-34 percent Paxton lead. The 2022 reference was from a CWS Research survey taken in early July of that year. The then-hypothetical Cornyn-Paxton ballot test yielded a 51-31 percent advantage for Paxton.

The obvious common theme is that Sen. Cornyn trails in every publicly released survey over a long period. The polling, however, is not the full story.

A non-profit organization, Standing for Texas, is running ads in the major media markets with the exception of Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R) hometown of Houston, positively profiling the Congressman and clearly laying the groundwork for a statewide run. Curiously, however, the latest polls do not include Rep. Hunt as a Senate candidate, even though signs are clear that he intends to enter the contest. The addition of Rep. Hunt, and/or other candidates, could certainly change the campaign trajectory.

Sen. Cornyn’s problem is that large numbers within the Texas GOP base believe him to be a RINO (Republican In Name Only) because he has strayed from the typical party position on several issues. A fair characterization or not, it is clear that Sen. Cornyn will have to neutralize this image in order to forge a winning coalition.

Paxton, however, is a flawed candidate. He was impeached in the Republican state House of Representatives in 2023 but not convicted in a trial before the state Senate. Yet, the proceeding brought to the forefront bribery accusations and the acknowledgment of an extra-marital affair. Therefore, Paxton would be an easy target for the eventual Democratic nominee in a general election.

Another Paxton problem could be fundraising. A great deal of his state campaign resources come from large donations, which are legal under Texas election law. Raising money for a statewide race in the nation’s second largest domain in increments not to exceed $3,500 for the nomination election means Paxton will have a harder time raising the funds necessary to run a strong primary campaign.

Both Sen. Cornyn and Rep. Hunt have obviously raised sizable amounts under the federal guidelines. The current Federal Election Commission disclosure reports find Sen. Cornyn holding almost $5.6 million in his campaign account, while Rep. Hunt has over $2.8 million. Paxton did not file a first quarter report because he was not yet an official candidate.

On the Democratic side, no major candidate has yet come forth but 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred, now a former Congressman, confirms he is considering returning for a 2026 campaign. Former Congressman and failed presidential, US Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke says he is not “closing the door” on entering the Senate race. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) is another possibility as is astronaut Terry Verts.

It appears we will see a great deal of early action from candidates in both parties for the Texas Senate race. The party primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate secures majority support. Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, we can expect the Texas Senate campaign cycle to yield a tough and close months-long campaign.

Democratic Rep. Sherrill Leads
In New Jersey Governor Polls

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 2, 2025

Governor

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D)

The open 2025 New Jersey Governor’s race could have a direct effect upon the US House of Representatives.

Both Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) are battling for their party’s statewide nomination. If either wins the primary and subsequent general election, another Democratic vacancy will occur in the House thus forcing a special election to be called.

A series of recent New Jersey gubernatorial polls find Rep. Sherrill leading a crowded open Democratic field, but her advantage is small. Three polls have been released in the immediate past with noted Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group in the unusual situation of conducting surveys for two candidates (Gottheimer and Sherrill) in the same race.

The most recent statewide poll, from New Jersey’s Rutgers University (released April 25; conducted April 1-10; 966 registered New Jersey voters; 556 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters; online), sees Rep. Sherrill leading her Democratic opponents 17-12-10-9-9-7 percent against Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Montclair Mayor and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, Rep. Gottheimer, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, respectively.

This result does not greatly differ from the Global Strategy Group survey for the Gottheimer campaign. That poll (April 1-3; 900 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters) showed a more tightly bunched field but with Sherrill continuing to place first. In this result, Sherrill edge is 19-14-13-11-11-5 percent over Gottheimer, Fulop, Baraka, Spiller, and Sweeney.

The Sherrill campaign conducted its Global Strategy Group survey just after the Gottheimer study was completed. The results (April 6-8; 600 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters) differed significantly from the other published results and are distinctly different from their own poll for Rep. Gottheimer conducted just days before.

According to the GSG poll for the Sherrill campaign, their candidate leads 25-15-13-13-12-6 percent, over Rep. Gottheimer, Mayors Fulop and Baraka, Spiller, and former Sen. Sweeney. A bit surprisingly, the Sherrill and Gottheimer surveys, again with the same research firm conducting both studies and just days apart, arrive at substantially different results.

While Sherrill consistently leads, her margins can certainly be overcome especially since she has topped 20 percent in only her own internal poll. On the other hand, the Congresswoman has spent less in terms of advertising dollars than her major opponents to date but still maintains a consistent edge.

The New Jersey primary is scheduled for June 10, so this campaign will hit its full stride soon. As is the case in virtually all crowded primaries, whichever candidate has the most fervent support and the best organization to turn out their vote typically wins.

As mentioned above, should either Reps. Sherrill or Gottheimer advance to the general election and defeat likely GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, the former state legislator who held Gov. Phil Murphy (D) to a close win in 2021, the Democrats would be down another House vote for several months until a special election can be conducted.

Both the Gottheimer and Sherrill seats could become competitive in a special election. Gottheimer’s 5th CD and Sherrill’s 11th District both lie in northern New Jersey and share a common border.

The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations find Democrats holding the advantage, 53.0D – 45.3R in the 5th, and 54.7D – 43.7R in the 11th, so either district in an open situation would potentially be in play during a special election campaign.

Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig
Announces for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 1, 2025

Senate

Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig

Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig

Though she had been somewhat circumspect about her future political intentions, Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) formally announced that she will compete for her party’s nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D).

Craig will battle Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen, and likely several others for the Democratic Senate nomination.

It is probable that this contest will follow through to the party primary scheduled for August. Minnesota holds statewide endorsing conventions and though the results are not binding, a candidate forcing a primary after losing a delegate vote is relatively rare. Considering the race’s importance, it is hard to see the 2026 Democratic Senate contest ending at the convention, however.

Angie Craig was elected to the House in 2018 after losing to Republican Jason Lewis in a 2016 open election. She then won a tight re-election in 2020 but has expanded her victory margins in the past two general elections. She is clearly a liberal candidate but has developed a voting record closer to the center when compared with Flanagan, who has positioned herself decidedly on the left.

In her announcement address, Craig certainly drew battle lines with the Trump Administration, so expect the pre-general election rhetoric to become extreme. The November election approach should then pivot closer to the center remembering that President Trump came within just over four percentage points of outpacing former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 Minnesota campaign, while the Hillary Clinton margin over Trump in 2016 was only three points.

The Congresswoman certainly begins this contest with the largest campaign war chest among the announced candidates. Able to transfer all of her House committee funds to a Senate campaign, Rep. Craig starts with a hefty $1.07 million in her account, surpassing Lt. Gov. Flanagan’s $370,000 and Franzen’s $250,000.

Since Rep. Craig is risking her 2nd District House seat, we can expect to see a very lively general election campaign with candidates doing battle in what will now become the 11th open House seat to date.

Craig has averaged 50.5 percent of the vote during her five 2nd District campaigns (4 wins and 1 loss), with a low of 45.2 percent in 2016 to a high of 55.5 percent last November. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a MN-2 partisan lean of 50.3D – 44.4R. The demographic segmentation shows a voting age White population figure of 79 percent, with Hispanics, Asians, and Blacks all individually in the six percent range.

Conversely, The Down Ballot political blog pundits rank the 2nd District as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

Minnesota’s 2nd District lies south and west of the Twin Cities. Over 60 percent of the population resides in Dakota County, which is fully contained within District 2. The seat also contains Le Sueur and Scott counties, and parts of the Rice and Washington local entities. The largest population centers are the cities of Eagan, Burnsville, Shakopee, and Cottage Grove.

The presidential election broke almost exactly as Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean projected. In 2020, then-former Vice President Joe Biden defeated then-President Trump, 52.5 – 45.4 percent. Trump improved slightly in 2024, losing to Harris, 51.9 – 46.1 percent.

With the Craig Senate campaign becoming official, we will soon see maneuvering in both parties to develop 2nd District congressional campaigns. Expect competition in both primaries at least through the endorsing convention process, while the general election is expected to draw some national attention.

Though the partisan numbers appear relatively close, the eventual Democratic nominee will be viewed as the favorite to keep the seat in the party’s column, but a credible Republican should not be completely dismissed.

Rep. Gerry Connolly to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 30, 2025

House

Virginia Congressman Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax)

Virginia Congressman Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) / Photo by TEDx GeorgeMasonU, Flickr

Veteran Virginia Congressman Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) announced that he will not seek re-election in 2026 and will “shortly” resign his position as Ranking Minority Member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

Connolly indicated in a written statement that the cancer he is fighting has returned after what originally proved to be a more favorable treatment response. Rep. Connolly, 75, was the former chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors until his initial election to the US House in 2008; he defeated Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) at the beginning of the current Congress to win his ranking committee position.

Upon his official resignation from the committee leadership position, the Democratic Conference will choose a replacement. Rep. Ocasio-Cortez is no longer a committee member. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC) is the most senior Democrat on the committee followed by Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA).

Rep. Connolly’s 11th Congressional District, fully contained in northern Virginia’s Fairfax County along with Fairfax City, is safely Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 67.2D – 30.7R partisan lean. President Joe Biden carried the district in 2020, obtaining 70.0 percent of the vote against Donald Trump’s 28.7 percent. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the 11th District with a 65.7 – 31.4 percent margin four years later.

Over his nine elections to the House, Rep. Connolly has averaged a 65.1 win percentage. He had a close call in 2010 when his re-election figure dropped to a plurality 49.2 percent, winning by just 981 votes.

Though Republicans might field a credible candidate next year, the eventual Democratic nominee will be the clear favorite to hold the seat in November. Currently, the Virginia delegation features six Democrats and five Republicans, with all northern Virginia constituencies (Districts 7 [Rep. Eugene Vindman], 8 [Rep. Don Beyer], 10 [Rep. Suhas Subramanyam), and 11 ) electing Democrats.

Count on several state Senators and Delegates to run for the seat, along certain members of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. Two potential candidates would be Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairman Jeff McKay (D), and state Delegate Dan Helmer (D-Clifton), who has been a frequent candidate. Helmer has twice run for the 10th District but could easily run in the 11th. Both men would be formidable contenders.

The 11th District contains the communities of Centreville, Herndon, Lorton, Reston, and Springfield. The demographic composition features a diverse voting age population that totals 51.2 percent White, 25.4 percent Asian, 12.8 percent Hispanic, and 9.4 percent Black.

VA-11 will be the ninth open seat to date headed into the next election, and Democrats currently hold five. Two of the Democratic opens are due to the deaths of Reps. Sylvester Turner (D-TX) and Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), so their seats will be filled in upcoming special elections.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has called the Turner replacement election in Houston’s 18th CD concurrently with the state’s municipal election calendar, meaning Nov. 4, 2025. If no candidate receives majority support, the Governor will schedule a runoff election between the top two finishers for a later date. The district electorate voting pattern is overwhelmingly Democratic.

At this early point in the special election cycle, the leading TX-18 contenders appear as Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D).

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) scheduled the 7th District special election for July 15 (party primaries) and Sept. 23 (special general election). At this point, the leading Democratic primary candidates appear to be Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, the late Congressman’s daughter, and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. The eventual Democratic nominee will win the seat in September.

The remaining seven open seats, including VA-11, will be decided in the regular election cycle.

COMMENTARY: Maine Lays Siege To Democracy, First Amendment

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Maine State Representative Laurel Libby’s (R-Auburn) situation within her state legislature should shock every American. Read about it in my latest op-ed with Jim Carter on
the Daily Caller.

Here are the first few lines of our commentary piece:

Maine State Representative Laurel Libby’s (R-Auburn) situation within her state legislature should shock every American.

Because Rep. Libby had the temerity to voice opposition on the floor of the state House of Representatives to biological men being allowed to participate in women’s sports, the House Democratic majority censured her from speaking and even voting as a duly elected member of the state House. Therefore, her 9,000 constituents in Minot and Auburn, ME, just west of Lewiston, have no voice in the legislature.
(To read more, go to DAILY CALLER)

Sen. Tuberville to Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Governor

Senator and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville

Though he has yet to make a formal announcement, first-term Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) has reportedly made the decision to eschew running for re-election and will instead enter his state’s open gubernatorial campaign.

Assuming the news stories and X tweets are correct, Alabama will become the sixth state to host an open Senate campaign. Tuberville will be joining Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and Dick Durbin (D-IL) in the group that will not be seeking re-election in 2026.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to run for a third term, meaning we could now see crowded Republican primaries for both Governor and Senator.

In the Governor’s race, no one has officially declared as yet, but Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth (R) has indicated he will soon make an announcement. State Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate (R), ex-Secretary of State John Merrill (R), and former corporate CEO and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Lew Burdette (R) are among the individuals mentioned as likely to run for Governor. For the Democrats, only Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin has been discussed as a potential contender.

It will be interesting to see whether a Tuberville gubernatorial candidacy will dissuade any of the aforementioned from running for Governor, thus allowing them to take advantage of the opportunity to switch lanes and enter an open Senate campaign.

Sen. Tuberville began his political career in 2020 with his run for the Senate, after gaining notoriety as a major college football coach, principally at Alabama’s Auburn University.

From a historical perspective, the state’s electorate saw a great deal of Senate action once President Trump began his first term. Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) was appointed US Attorney General, thus leading to his resignation from the legislative post he held since the beginning of 1997.

After serving about a year in his new position, AG Sessions experienced a major falling out with President Trump that resulted in his resignation. Mr. Sessions would later return to Alabama in an attempt to regain his Senate seat.

In the 2017 special election to replace Sen. Sessions, Democrat Doug Jones took advantage of Republican discord and the party nominating a weak candidate when appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R) lost the special primary. The developments paved the way for Jones to score an upset victory.

Turning to the 2020 general election, Sen. Jones’s political magic disappeared when Tuberville garnered 60 percent of the vote to convert the seat to the Republican column.

Earlier, in that year’s Republican primary, Tuberville defeated ex-Sen. Sessions 61-39 percent after the two qualified for a runoff from the seven-candidate Republican primary. Tuberville finished first in the initial election with 33.4 percent while Sessions garnered 31.6 percent.

The fact that a former multi-term Senator could only attract little more than 30 percent in his own party’s primary doomed him for the runoff election, and Tuberville took full advantage of the situation with help from President Trump.

During Tuberville’s initial term in the Senate, he established a strong conservative record and reputation, which should allow him to begin the gubernatorial race in the favorite’s position. As with most Alabama statewide elections, winning the Republican nomination is tantamount to claiming victory in November, and the 2026 preview fails to suggest any deviation from this pattern.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate for Alabama a 63.9R – 34.5D partisan lean, thus giving further credence to the analysis that the eventual gubernatorial and Senatorial Republican nominees will be heavy favorites to again win the Yellowhammer State’s November 2026 elections.

House Overview – Part IV

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 28, 2025

House

Part IV concludes our House Overview analysis. Today’s edition covers districts in Ohio through Wisconsin. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Ohio

OH-9 — Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) was originally elected to Congress in 1982 and ranks as the fourth-most senior member of the House. In a western Ohio Toledo-anchored 9th District that no longer stretches to Cleveland to provide more Democrats, Kaptur has had two recent competitive elections, and particularly so in 2024.

The veteran Congresswoman was re-elected with just a 48.3 – 47.6 percent victory margin over then-state Representative Derek Merrin. It remains to be seen if Merrin returns for a re-match, but the Republicans are again guaranteed to field a strong candidate.

The wild card for Ohio congressional races is the impending redistricting. The state has one of the most complicated redistricting systems involving a legislative commission, a vote in the full legislature, and a statute that allows the districts to stand for only a four-year period if a vote of less than three-fifths of the legislature votes to adopt. That happened in 2021, so the congressional lines are supposed to be redrawn before the 2026 election. The new map will definitely have a major effect upon the 9th District race.

OH-13 — The redistricting situation could be definitive for Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) as she runs for a third term. In November, the Congresswoman recorded only a 51-49 percent victory margin over former state legislator Kevin Coughlin (R). The 2026 race will again be competitive since Coughlin has already announced he will return for a re-match.

Pennsylvania

PA-7 — Freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie) unseated three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D) in November with a one-point margin. The former Congresswoman says she will not return in 2026 but has an unnamed candidate that she wants to support. Northampton County Executive Lamon McClure (D) is an announced candidate but raised only $140,000 in the first quarter. Therefore, McClure is not likely Wild’s mystery candidate.

Regardless of who the Democrats ultimately nominate, this will be a hotly contested race that will go a long way toward determining the next House majority.

PA-8 — Freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township) unseated six-term Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) in November with a 51-49 percent vote margin. Cartwright confirms he is considering returning for a re-match. Until he makes a decision, the rest of a potential Democratic candidate field is figuratively frozen. This district will again host a tight contest, so expect a major campaign to again unfold in this Scranton-anchored CD irrespective of whom the Democrats nominate to challenge Rep. Bresnahan.

South Carolina

SC-1 — Three-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) is seriously considering a run for Governor, meaning the coastal 1st Congressional District could be open in 2026. Should Rep. Mace run for re-election instead of statewide, she will be safe in a general election battle. With the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculating a 55.6R – 42.3D partisan lean, the GOP will be in strong position to hold the seat with another candidate. Likely the area politics will be in a state of suspension until Rep. Mace makes a final decision about running for Governor.

SC-5 — As with Rep. Mace in South Carolina’s 1st CD, five-term 5th District Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is also considering entering the state’s open Governor’s race. In a recent quote, Norman indicated he is “about 65 percent sure” that he will run statewide.

The 5th CD is also solidly Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.4R – 39.8D), so winning the GOP primary is tantamount to election. Here, too, a presumed congressional candidate field is frozen until Rep. Norman makes a final decision about his potential statewide bid. If both the 1st and 5th Districts are open, we can expect crowded and highly competitive Republican primaries in each location.

South Dakota

SD-AL — The South Dakota congressional situation is another where a Governor’s race is playing a major role as to the outcome of an eventual campaign for the US House. Four-term at-large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is contemplating a run for Governor, but the new incumbent, Larry Rhoden who ascended to the state’s top job when then-Gov. Kristi Noem (R) was appointed Homeland Security Secretary, has not yet indicated whether he will run for a full term.

Most politicos, however, believe Rep. Johnson will jump into the Governor’s race irrespective of Gov. Rhoden’s plans. His 1st Quarter fundraising certainly suggests such. Johnson raised just under $800,000 for the three-month period but maintains almost $6 million in his campaign account. Therefore, Rep. Johnson already has the necessary resources to fully compete in a statewide race.

Should the Congressman run for Governor, as in several other states, we will see a crowded open-seat Republican primary form with the eventual winner punching his ticket to Washington, DC.

Tennessee

TN-6 — The middle Tennessee 6th Congressional District situation is similar to those described in South Carolina and South Dakota. Here, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) has already announced his candidacy in the open Governor’s race, a move that many believe will be a political suicide run against Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), who appears set on running to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Bill Lee.

With Rep. Rose in the Governor’s race, we see talk about others running for Congress but, so far, no real action. A crowded Republican primary is expected, which may feature former Congressman Van Hilleary, who has been serving as Rep. Rose’s chief of staff, state House Speaker Cameron Sexton (R-Crossville), and as many as two state Senators and two other state Representatives. A crowded field will form and the eventual Republican nominee will succeed Rose as the new member.

Texas

TX-18 — The death of freshman Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has led to a special election being called concurrently with the state’s municipal elections scheduled for Nov. 3. If no candidate receives majority support in the initial vote, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) then will schedule a secondary election for the top two finishers. Such a runoff, which is likely and could well feature two Democrats, would probably be scheduled for Dec. 16.

Fifteen Democrats, three Republicans, and four Independents have already announced their candidacies. At this point, the top two candidates appear to be Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-Senate and House candidate Amanda Edwards (D). With a partisan lean rating of 73.6D – 24.4R (Dave’s Redistricting App), the Democrats are a lock to keep this seat.

TX-28 — Twenty-year incumbent Congressman Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) has won his past two elections from this South Texas congressional district with a federal bribery indictment hanging over his head. In November, he defeated retired Navy officer Jay Furman (R), who moved to the state just to challenge Cuellar.

It is likely the Congressman will face stiffer competition in 2026. Former 34th District Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R) has announced her candidacy. Before that, Republican leaders were looking to recruit Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. It remains to be seen just who Rep. Cuellar will face, but we can expect a highly competitive 2026 contest in this heavily Hispanic (72.9 percent of the CD Voting Age Population) Texas district.

TX-38 — Two-term Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) holds a safe Republican seat wholly within Harris County, but he may be moving into a statewide race. There is no question Rep. Hunt is testing the political waters for a Republican primary challenge to Sen. John Cornyn (R) and should he enter the race that also includes Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), we can expect a very crowded Republican primary field vying to replace the Congressman.

Hunt has averaged 63 percent of the vote in his two 38th District elections. President Donald Trump carried the seat by 21 percentage points. Therefore, if Rep. Hunt runs for the Senate, the open 38th would then again be decided in the Republican primary.

Wisconsin

WI-1 & 3 — The major question that must be answered before beginning to analyze the Wisconsin congressional races is will there be a mid-decade congressional redistricting? If the state Supreme Court decides to redraw the boundaries in response to a lawsuit, then 1st District Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and fellow 3rd District Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) will be in serious political trouble. If the map remains constant, then Rep. Steil would be a clear favorite for re-election, while Rep. Van Orden would again face a competitive opponent.

In November, Steil, running for his fourth term, defeated Democratic former Congressman Peter Barca by 10 percentage points, 54-44 percent in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians project a partisan lean of 49.4R – 48.3D. President Trump carried the seat 51.5 – 47.0 percent.

Rep. Van Orden’s 3rd District lies in Wisconsin’s western sector anchored in the city of La Crosse. The Congressman won a second term with a 51-49 percent margin over businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D).

Though Cooke is returning for a re-match, she faces significant Democratic primary competition in the persons of Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge (D), and former Eau Claire City Councilmember Laura Benjamin (D). Even in the present district configuration, Rep. Van Orden can count on again being forced to wage a major re-election campaign.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court forced a redraw of the state Assembly and Senate districts in 2023 on partisan gerrymandering grounds but left the congressional map intact. It remains to be seen what decision the new state Supreme Court will soon render for the 2024 elections.