Category Archives: Redistricting

Weekly Redistricting Update

Significant redistricting action occurred in the following eight states during the past week:

ARIZONA (current delegation: 5R-3D; gains one seat) – The Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives is floating legislation to place a new congressional plan on a special election ballot in order to eliminate the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission’s map, which now officially defines the state’s congressional boundaries. The bill must be passed into law by Feb. 15 to qualify for a pre-election ballot. Political numbers for the Commission map have been released. It is more than likely that Democrats will gain two seats under this plan and the GOP loses one.

FLORIDA (current delegation: 19R-6D; gains two seats) – The state House of Representatives is scheduled to vote on a new 27-District congressional map that passed the body’s redistricting committee. The House map differs from the Senate version and appears to be a bit more Republican-friendly. On its face, the map appears to yield 16 re-numbered Republican seats, eight Democratic and three marginal districts: Reps. Sandy Adams (new District 7), Bill Young (new District 13) and what will likely be an open 18th District). The Republican faring the worst is freshman Rep. Allen West, whose 22nd District becomes 10 percentage points more Democratic. It may be possible, should Rep. Tom Rooney (R-FL-16) run in the new 17th, that West could slide north into the new 18th District, which is much more favorable to a Republican but would still be highly competitive.

KENTUCKY (current delegation: 4R-2D) – The Kentucky candidate filing deadline is today and, with no congressional map passed into law, changes will have to be made. The legislature is quickly trying to adopt a new filing deadline to allow more time to pass a new map. Failure to do so forces the process to court. With filing inevitably delayed, the May 22 Kentucky primary could also be endangered.

MICHIGAN (current delegation: 9R-6D; loses one seat) – The Department of Justice issued pre-clearance to the Michigan congressional map, the last step in finalizing their new plan. The map is projected to produce a 9R-5D delegation split, meaning the Democrats will absorb the seat lost to reapportionment. Michigan is the only state in the country that actually saw a decline in real population during the last decade. All other states that reduced their congressional representation did not keep pace with the national rate of growth. Though the Wolverine State only has several counties under Voting Rights jurisdiction, the entire statewide map had to be granted pre-clearance.

MISSOURI (current delegation: 6R-3D; loses one seat) – The redistricting trial begins this week. At issue is a question of compactness in the Kansas City area. Interestingly, Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO-3) filed the lawsuit in an attempt to overturn the St. Louis portion of the map that collapsed his current district. The judges rejected those arguments, but found an area of concern in the western part of the state. The trial will conclude this week and a ruling should be forthcoming shortly.

NEW YORK (current delegation: 21D-8R; loses two seats) – A New York federal judge has issued an order moving the state’s primary from Sept. 11 to June 26 in order to comply with the federal MOVE Act. The legislation requires overseas ballots to be mailed a minimum of 45 days before any election. The change would be permanent, making the NY primary occur on the fourth Tuesday in June. The MOVE Act only applies to federal races. It is legal for the state to hold state and local primaries in September, but such would likely be considered impractical. The ruling means the redistricting clock is ticking much faster, so the congressional plan should be unveiled shortly.

TENNESSEE (current delegation: 7R-2D) – Gov. Bill Haslam (R) signed the recently passed congressional redistricting legislation into law. It is likely that the state’s 7R-2D ratio will hold for several elections.

VIRGINIA (current delegation: 8R-3D) – Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) also signed Virginia’s new congressional map into law. The map protects the 8R-3D delegation split but several of the seats are marginal, suggesting increased political competition in the southern part of the state.

Republican-Held CDs: A Vulnerability Analysis

The House Majority PAC, run by a former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee political director who served under then-chairman Rahm Emanuel, released the findings of Public Policy Polling vulnerability surveys for eight Republican-held congressional seats (all conducted during the Jan. 18-23 period). It is not known in exactly how many districts the PAC polled, but these eight will undoubtedly be competitive and obviously fare the best for Democrats among those tested.

Though the release was done in the context of making the GOP incumbents look as vulnerable as possible, looking beyond the numbers and overlaying the new district lines tells, perhaps, a different story in many of these targeted CDs.

The eight are:

• CO-3: Rep. Scott Tipton (R), 46% vs. Sal Pace (D), 39% – The 3rd District of Colorado is commonly described as the Western Slope seat. The region encompasses the mountainous western part of the state but comes east along the state’s southern border to capture the Democratic city and county of Pueblo. Because the split-control Colorado legislature was unable to produce a new congressional map, the subsequent de novo court map kept the integrity of the district intact and made the swing seat lean just one more point toward the Democrats. Sal Pace is the state House minority leader and expected to be a strong challenger. Scott Tipton is a freshman who defeated three-term Democratic Rep. John Salazar in the last election 50-46 percent. This is expected to be a close race, but since the Republican presidential nominee usually carries this region, Tipton might get a point or two bump. At this point, a 46-39 percent spread for numbers released by a Democratic Super PAC are not too bad for the incumbent Republican in a district that traditionally features tight congressional contests.

• IL-8: Rep. Joe Walsh, 35% (R) vs. Generic D, 49% – The two Democratic contenders in this new district are former US Department of Veterans Affairs Assistant Secretary Tammy Duckworth and ex-Deputy State Treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi. The generic ballot question suggests that Democrats have a strong chance of unseating freshman Rep. Joe Walsh here, in a Democratic redraw that was designed to do just that. Walsh’s decision to run in the new 8th instead of facing a GOP incumbent pairing with fellow freshman Randy Hultgren (R-IL-14) is highly questionable. Despite House Republican leadership promising to raise Walsh millions of dollars if he were to run in the 8th District, the demographic and political numbers paint an unpleasant picture regarding the freshman’s chances. Expect the Democratic nominee, likely Duckworth, to romp in the general election. The PPP generic poll has a high probability of being accurate.

• IA-4: Rep. Steve King (R), 49% vs. Christie Vilsack (D), 43% – Rep. Steve King’s 5th District, now labeled #4, is quite different under the new redistricting design, as the state lost a seat in reapportionment. Instead of occupying the entire western side of Iowa from north to south, the new 4th CD keeps only his north-central western base and now travels as far east as Mason City, Charles City, and New Hampton. The seat is generally Republican, but King has drawn a challenge from Christie Vilsack (D), wife of US Agriculture Secretary and former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack. She will have all the campaign resources she needs to run a competitive race. Since Vilsack likely has higher name ID throughout the entire district than does Rep. King, a 49-43 percent spread in the congressman’s favor is not particularly bad news for he and the GOP.

• MD-6: Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R), 42% vs. Generic D, 42% – One of the biggest redistricting victims in the United States is 85-year old Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R). He has seen his district go from a 58 percent McCain performance to a 56 percent Obama number with the addition of more highly Democratic precincts in Montgomery County. Under the new district lines, Rep. Bartlett is a clear underdog in the general election, assuming he survives an eight-person Republican primary. Considering the drastic nature of the redraw, pulling dead even in what is now a decidedly Democratic district is actually a surprisingly good showing for the GOP incumbent.

• MI-1: Rep. Dan Benishek (R), 41% vs. Gary McDowell (D), 46% – Rep. Benishek is trailing by five in a new district that is slightly more Republican than the one in which he defeated then-state Rep. Gary McDowell (D) 52-41 percent in 2010; and that is a sign of trouble. Though the seat was held by Democratic Rep. Bart Stupak for 18 years, the voting history of northern Michigan is hospitable to Republicans. Therefore, a poll showing Benishek already trailing McDowell, who just announced he was going to run again in September, should be a cause for concern among Benishek and the northern Michigan Republican party.

• OH-6: Rep. Bill Johnson (R), 42% vs. Charlie Wilson (D), 41% – Though Ohio loses two congressional districts, the configuration of the 6th District that hugs the Pennsylvania and West Virginia borders all the way from East Liverpool and Steubenville down to and through Scioto County stays virtually intact under the new Buckeye State map. The seat juts west on I-70 at Cambridge in order to pick up some new Republican voters to give Johnson some help. The freshman congressman’s opponent is former two-term Rep. Charlie Wilson, who Johnson defeated 50-45 percent in 2010. A one-point polling margin is what one would expect in this district featuring two well-known candidates at such an early point in the election cycle. The new OH-6 race is likely to remain close all the way to Election Day.

• OH-7: Rep. Bob Gibbs (R), 42% vs. Generic D, 43% – The new 7th District is a radical redraw from the current 18th CD that elected freshman Rep. Bob Gibbs. Instead of stretching south from the central part of the state, the new 7th moves north to grab the city of Canton, sweeps around new District 16 in a horseshoe-shaped fashion to pick up the city of Ashland on the west, and then travels north all the way to Lake Erie. The new district should elect a Republican, but Gibbs is unfamiliar to a large number of voters. The fact that he is virtually dead-even on the generic ballot question is not particularly bad news for the new congressman. Once he becomes better known throughout the entire new district, and is paired with a live Democratic candidate instead of a party label, his ballot test numbers should dramatically improve.

• OH-16: Rep. Jim Renacci (R), 46% vs. Rep. Betty Sutton (D), 46% – The 16th District doesn’t much resemble either GOP Rep. Renacci’s current 16th CD, nor Rep. Sutton’s 13th District. Renacci represents a greater proportion of the new district, but it only slightly leans Republican. Therefore, it is not particularly surprising that the two candidates are starting on even footing. This is another race that will be hard-fought. Because Sutton’s political base was split among several districts, forcing her to begin again from scratch, she faces the more difficult path to re-election. OH-16 is one of just three districts in the nation so far that features an inter-party incumbent pairing. The other two are CA-32, with Reps. Grace Napolitano (D) and David Dreier (R) facing off – though it is highly unlikely that the Republican will run here – and IA-3, with Reps. Leonard Boswell (D) and Tom Latham (R) lining up against each other.

Weekly Redistricting Roundup

Significant redistricting action occurred in the following seven states during the past week:

FLORIDA (current delegation: 19R-6D; gains two seats) – The Republican-controlled Florida Senate passed their 27-district congressional map during the past week. The measure would create several competitive districts meaning that Democrats will likely make some gains. The House of Representatives is considering their own congressional plan. At this point it is difficult to predict exactly what the legislature will produce. Because of the conflicts between the 2010 voter-approved initiative that adds new redistricting criteria and the Voting Rights Act, it is clear that the final plan will come before the liberal Florida State Supreme Court immediately after adoption. The Florida redistricting process still has a very long way to go.

KANSAS (current delegation: 4R) – In one of the last states to produce a map, the Kansas state Senate Reapportionment Committee released a new four-district plan that leaves the basic congressional footprint in tact. The biggest changes are in western District 1 (Rep. Tim Huelskamp-R) and Kansas City-based District 3 (Rep. Kevin Yoder-R). The 1st must gain 57,970 people and the 3rd must shed 54,289. The biggest change is putting the city of Manhattan, home to Kansas State University, into the 1st from the 2nd. The Speaker of the House is already expressing discontent with the plan, specifically as it relates to the placement of Manhattan, so this process is nowhere near completion.

KENTUCKY (current delegation: 4R-2D) – Negotiations between the Democratic House of Representatives and the Republican Senate over the six-district congressional plan have broken down. It is unclear if the two sides can reach agreement in time to avoid postponing the Jan. 31 candidate filing deadline. If the plan heads to court, which appears likely today, the filing deadline will certainly be postponed and the May 22 primary could be in jeopardy.

NORTH CAROLINA (current delegation: 7D-6R) – Now in court before a three judge state panel, North Carolina itself has won a significant redistricting-related ruling. The panel rejected a motion to move the May 8 primary to July 10 in order to allow the plaintiffs more time to argue their map rejection case. This suggests that the panel plans a quick ruling on all of the consolidated redistricting lawsuits.

TEXAS (current delegation: 23R-9D; gains four seats) – As part of their hearing of the Texas redistricting case, the US Supreme Court has rejected their own federal three-judge panel’s controversial map. This means the panel will have to redraw the 36 district congressional lines, with greater attention to the Supreme Court directives pertaining to minority districts and giving deference to the map that cleared the legislative process and Gov. Rick Perry signed into law. The ruling means the process will continue on for an extended period, and even the new April 3 primary date will likely be postponed again. Originally, the Texas primary was scheduled for Super Tuesday on March 6.

VIRGINIA (current delegation: 8R-3D) – The status quo 8R-3D congressional map passed the Virginia state Senate last week and now goes to Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) for his signature. Under the new draw, Reps. Gerry Connolly (D-VA-11) and Frank Wolf (R-VA-10) see their districts improve the most from their own personal perspectives. Connolly’s seat becomes eight points more Democratic; Wolf’s increases its Republican vote by seven. Both seats are in northern Virginia.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA-7) improves six points, while Rep. Jim Moran (D-VA-8) sees his Democratic number regress six points. Moran still maintains a politically safe district, however. The two marginal freshmen Republicans, Reps. Scott Rigell (R-VA-2) and Bob Hurt (R-VA-5) also improve, but not by much. Rigell’s new seat is three points more Republican, Hurt’s is two. It is likely the new map will protect the current 8R-3D configuration for at least the early part of the decade, but the aforementioned Republican seats (Districts 2, 5, and 10) could become highly competitive at a later point in time.

WEST VIRGINIA (current delegation: 2R-1D) – The US Supreme Court weighed in on the West Virginia lawsuit and will review the three judge federal panel’s action that stayed implementation of the congressional map for population equalization reasons. The Supreme Court hearing schedule, however, virtually ensures that the 2012 elections will occur in the legislatively-passed districts. If the Supreme Court orders changes to the plan, such will occur in 2013 and will be in effect for future elections. Therefore, for 2012, West Virginia returns to the redistricting completed category. The plan favors all three current incumbents: Reps. David McKinley (R-WV-1), Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV-2), and Nick Rahall (D-WV-3) in the sense that it doesn’t change the current footprint. The 1st District, in particular, is expected to remain competitive.

Weekly Redistricting Update

Significant redistricting action occurred in the following eight states during the first business week of the new year:

CONNECTICUT (current delegation: 5D) – The Connecticut court-appointed special master has released his draft congressional map and, as the state Supreme Court ordered him to create, it is a “least change” plan. All five districts will basically remain the same as constructed on the current map, except for population equalization adjustments. This plan will likely be adopted and all five seats will be favored to remain in Democratic hands.

FLORIDA (current delegation: 19R-6D; gains two seats) – The Florida Senate Committee on Reapportionment passed a congressional map during the past week. The full Senate will likely take action in a few days. The state House is also moving a bill. A plan will move to Gov. Rick Scott (R) shortly. The real battle over this most crucial congressional plan, however, will ultimately be decided in the state courts. Conflicting issues between the state-passed voter initiative that added criteria to map construction and the federal Voting Rights Act have put the Florida process on a legal collision course. Regardless of the resulting legalities, the final plan will almost certainly yield many more competitive districts than under the current set of district lines. The Sunshine State clearly features the best Republican map in the country.

KENTUCKY (current delegation: 4R-2D) – The state House of Representatives passed a congressional map that strengthens both of the state’s Democratic members, Reps. John Yarmuth (D-KY-3) and Ben Chandler (D-KY-6). The Republican Senate appears headed upon a different course meaning this situation may move to the judiciary for final resolution. The Kentucky primary is May 22, with candidate filing scheduled for a fast-approaching January 31st. This is the critical week in the Kentucky redistricting process.

MISSOURI (current delegation: 6R-3D; loses one seat) – Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO-3) has an active lawsuit before the courts, objecting to the draw in the eastern part of the state that collapses his current district. While the court didn’t comment upon his original claim, they did express concern over a certain part of Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D) 5th District, anchored in Kansas City. Though no action has yet been taken, it is possible that the Missouri map will have to be adjusted.

NORTH CAROLINA (current delegation: 7D-6R) – The state three-judge panel has scheduled oral arguments for the consolidated redistricting lawsuits regarding the legislatively enacted congressional, state Senate, and House maps for this Friday, Jan. 20. It is likely that the North Carolina Supreme Court will eventually be referred the matter in order to render a final verdict on the maps. This will have to happen relatively quickly since the Tar Heel State primary is scheduled for May 8, with a fast-approaching candidate filing deadline of Feb. 29. Though the plaintiffs have raised approximately 70 causes of action, the most important is their racial gerrymandering claim about some African-American districts.

TENNESSEE (current delegation: 7R-2D) – Both houses of the legislature have now passed the new Tennessee congressional map. The legislation goes to Gov. Bill Haslam (R) for his signature. The Republican legislature drew a map that attempts to keep the seven seats just won in the GOP column, but also makes freshman Rep. Scott DesJarlais highly vulnerable in the Republican primary. A member of the State & Local Government Committee that has jurisdiction over redistricting, Sen. Bill Ketron, ensured that Rutherford County was placed in the new 4th, thereby making plausible his intra-party challenge to the new incumbent.

VIRGINIA (current delegation: 8R-3D) – A new status quo 8R-3D congressional map passed the Virginia House of Delegates last week. The plan now goes to the Senate where the measure is expected to quickly pass. Once that occurs, Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) will sign the map into law. A full analysis will be provided upon completion of the legislative process.

WEST VIRGINIA (current delegation: 2R-1D) – The three-judge federal panel that struck down the West Virginia congressional plan for population equality reasons has back-tracked on their requirement that the legislature produce a new map by Jan. 17. With no pending deadline, the legislature has more time to arrive at a solution. The governor and legislative leaders originally responded by asking the US Supreme Court to step in, following Texas’ lead in their own case. The problems here are solvable and the “least change” goal of the new West Virginia map will still likely prevail.

Weekly Redistricting Update

Significant redistricting action occurred in the following nine states during the first business week of the new year:

CONNECTICUT (current delegation: 5D) – The Connecticut Supreme Court issued instructions to appointed special master Nathan Persily to draw a “least change” congressional map. This is viewed as a win for the Democrats, who want to keep the map’s footprint as close to the current plan as possible. It is likely that Democrats will maintain control of all five districts when the process finally concludes.

HAWAII (current delegation: 2D) – The Hawaii State Supreme Court rejected the enacted state legislative maps, saying the legislature counted non-residents (mostly military families and students) in developing their population matrix. It appears approximately 100,000 people are affected. This likely will mean a shift in state House and Senate seats away from Oahu and onto the Big Island of Hawaii. It is unclear if this decision will affect the congressional map.

KENTUCKY (current delegation: 4R-2D) – The jurisdictional state House committee passed the first congressional map on a party-line vote. The measure now goes to the House floor. Democrats control the House and hold the governor’s office, while Republicans have a majority in the state Senate so a compromise map will be the eventual solution. Expect an incumbent protection plan that keeps the 4R-2D ratio, but shores up the two Democrat districts. The candidate filing deadline is Jan. 31, so serious redistricting action will soon be forthcoming.

MINNESOTA (current delegation: 4D-4R) –
The special five-judge state panel charged with solving the redistricting impasse announced that they will release an eight-district congressional plan on Feb. 21. The Republican legislature and Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton could not agree on a consensus map, hence the court action. Both parties have submitted their maps to the panel and have participated in oral arguments.

MISSISSIPPI (current delegation: 3R-1D) – It appears that Mississippi congressional redistricting is now over. The special three judge federal panel issued a map before the new legislature took office on Jan. 3. The plan altered the districts only slightly. Since the appeal period has now expired with no one filing a challenge, the new map becomes official. The map favors all of the current incumbents.

NEW MEXICO (current delegation: 2D-1R) – Like the court in Mississippi, the New Mexico judges also drew a “least change” congressional map with the agreement of both Democrat and Republican plaintiffs. Politically, New Mexico will continue to have one Democratic seat (NM-3), one Republican district (NM-2), and a swing region that leans Democratic (NM-1).

TENNESSEE (current delegation: 7R-2D) – The majority Republican state legislative leaders released their first-draft congressional map and, as expected, intra-party politics dominated the re-draw. Keeping the current 7R-2D footprint intact – though District 8 (Rep. Stephen Fincher-R) will continue to be politically marginal – a big move is made over freshman Rep. Scott DesJarlais’ (R) 4th District. Though the seat will still elect a Republican, the state Senate Redistricting Committee placed Rutherford County, the home of committee member Bill Ketron (R), in the new 4th and he appears set to launch a primary challenge to the one-term incumbent. Rutherford County’s departure from District 6 (Rep. Diane Black-R) also takes two major contenders from the last TN-6 (2010) campaign, thus adding them to District 4 as well.

The addition of Rutherford County shifts the district’s power base toward the Murfreesboro area. DesJarlais is from the region nearest to Chattanooga. He is already running radio ads in the new part of the district to introduce himself as the area’s new congressman. The expected DesJarlais-Ketron race will be hard-fought and is a clear redistricting power play. It’s a most interesting one because it involves an intra-party move, not involving any Democrats. The best the GOP can expect is to solidify their 7-2 advantage, which is the goal of this map. Much more will come here as this plan makes its way through the legislature.

TEXAS (current delegation: 23R-9D; gains four seats) – Oral arguments pertaining to the congressional and legislative maps were made yesterday, Jan. 9, before the US Supreme Court. It is unclear as to when the high court will rule, but the case is on an expedited track. If no ruling occurs before Jan. 17, then the April 3rd primary, already moved from March 6, will likely change again.

WEST VIRGINIA (current delegation: 2D-1R) – A three judge federal panel has struck down the West Virginia congressional plan, ruling that population differences among the three districts are excessive. The Democratic legislature, governor, and Republican Reps. David McKinley (WV-1) and Shelley Moore Capito (WV-2) all had agreed upon the “least change” map. The two Republicans are joining the Democrat leaders in asking the Supreme Court to stay the three judge panel’s ruling. West Virginia candidate filing is Jan. 31, but their primary is not until May 8, so time exists to solve the issues.

Calif. Rep. Gallegly to Retire

In a move many expected when the California redistricting map dealt him a cruel political blow, 13-term Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-CA-24) announced over the weekend that he will not seek re-election later this year, thus ending his quarter century tenure in Congress.

Mr. Gallegly had two choices after the California Citizens Redistricting Commission re-drew the Ventura County/Simi Valley (west Los Angeles County) area. He could run in the new 26th District, which comprises most of Ventura County, a place Gallegly has represented for most of his career, but which does not include his home and political power base of the Simi Valley region. While he would be in the incumbent in the new 26th, the district is politically marginal and the chances of a Democrat beating him in November are good. President Obama, who will of course lead the Democratic ticket again in 2012, scored 56 percent here in 2008.

Mr. Gallegly’s other option would have been to challenge fellow Republican Rep. Buck McKeon (R-CA-25) in the new 25th CD. This district will likely elect a member of the GOP in November but, aside from including Simi Valley, the new 25th is comprised mostly of McKeon’s political base in Santa Clarita and Palmdale. Gallegly would have been at a decided disadvantage had he run against McKeon but, under California’s new primary election law, it is likely the race would have lasted a full year as both would likely have qualified for the general election because the top two primary finishers advance to the general election regardless of political party affiliation.

All of the aforementioned made retirement Mr. Gallegly’s best option. The 26th District is now officially listed as an open seat. The retiring congressman becomes the 27th House incumbent to announce that he or she won’t run for re-election, and the 13th to choose outright retirement. The others are seeking a different office. Adding the new seats created in reapportionment and redistricting to this list, 43 open seat races are already present.

Without Gallegly in the political picture, the new 25th District (McKeon) becomes a Likely Republican seat, while District 26 now goes to “lean Democrat.” The seat’s political complexion is highly marginal, however, and a strong Republican candidate could conceivably win with a break or two.

Bachmann Out of the House, Too?

Yesterday, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6) ended her presidential quest after a poor showing in her native state of Iowa. Now, she must soon determine whether she will seek re-election to her House seat, a decision that is apparently not clear cut.

While campaigning for president these past many months, Rep. Bachmann’s attendance for House votes has been poor. In a body where almost all members participate in more than 90 percent of the recorded votes per session, the former presidential candidate’s absentee rate is well above 40 percent. Regardless of ideology, voting attendance tends to be a killer issue for incumbents in both parties.

The Minnesota representative also has to decide whether continuing to serve in Congress helps her achieve national political goals. Like former presidential or vice-presidential candidates Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin have found, having a regular media presence is a much better forum than representing a single political constituency.

Redistricting is another concern. Though Bachmann has won her seat three times, twice in the most difficult Republican years of 2006 and 2008, her district is marginal and potentially competitive in a general election. It’s a sure bet the Democrats will target her if the soon-to-be-released, court-drawn 2012 map keeps her in a vulnerable position.

The Minnesota Republican convention is scheduled for April 14, when party delegates will choose nominees for the various positions. Under Minnesota law, individuals can force an August primary if they are not victorious in the convention, but that rarely happens.

Expect Rep. Bachmann to take some time before deciding her next political move, but it would not be surprising to see her leave Congress when her current term expires.