Category Archives: House

Michigan Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 3, 2026

Primary

This week, six states are holding their 2026 primary elections, but none is more active than tomorrow’s Michigan nomination contests.

Today, we highlight the Wolverine State’s key races. Tomorrow, we will preview the Aug. 4 primaries in Missouri, Washington, and Virginia. On Thursday, Aug. 6, Tennessee voters choose their nominees, and on Saturday, Aug. 9, Hawaii follows.

The marquee Michigan race is the Democratic US Senate primary. Former Wayne County Health/Human/Veterans Department director Abdul El‑Sayed faces Congresswoman Haley Stevens (D‑Birmingham).

Although Democratic leaders have rallied around Stevens since state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D‑Royal Oak) exited the race in early July, El‑Sayed holds a commanding advantage in public polling. Across the last eight publicly released surveys, from eight different pollsters, El‑Sayed’s average lead is 14.9 percentage points.

Tomorrow’s winner faces former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers, who is virtually unencumbered in the Republican primary.

The gubernatorial primaries are less dramatic. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is the clear favorite and is expected to cruise to the nomination.

For Republicans, Congressman John James (R‑Farmington Hills), who previously ran two close statewide races, leads businessman and frequent candidate Perry Johnson. A Benson-James general election matchup is the anticipated outcome. Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan had previously launched an Independent bid that would have created an intriguing three‑way race, but he suspended his campaign in late May.

Michigan also features a full slate of competitive congressional primaries. In the 4th District, where Congressman Bill Huizenga (R‑Holland) faces a competitive general election, Democratic state Sen. Sean McCann (D‑Kalamazoo) is likely to prevail with his party’s nomination, setting up what promises to be a closely watched November contest.

The 7th CD is likely to host the fiercest campaign in the delegation. Freshman Congressman Tom Barrett (R‑Charlotte/ Lansing) will defend his seat against one of three Democratic contenders: political organizer William Lawrence, retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam, and former Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink.

The 8th District will also be competitive. Freshman Bay City Democrat Kristin MacDonald Rivet seeks a second term and is unopposed in the Democratic primary. Republicans have a three‑way contest, with former US Postal Service Inspector and Navy veteran Amir Hassan, who has raised roughly $800,000 and holds President Trump’s endorsement, favored to win. Rep. Rivet remains the favorite for re‑election, though GOP efforts may intensify after the primary.

The open 10th District promises a highly contested general election. Congressman James is vacating the seat to run for Governor, having twice won close races in this politically swing district. The leading Republican is Mike Bouchard Jr., son of longtime Oakland County Sheriff and former statewide nominee Michael Bouchard, Sr.

With strong name recognition, Bouchard Jr. is expected to win the GOP nomination. He will face one of three Democratic candidates: former US Commerce Department official Eric Chung, Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, and ex-Macomb County local office nominee Christina Hines who has led in several polls.

In District 11, which Congresswoman Stevens is vacating to run for the Senate, the decisive contest is the Democratic primary; therefore, tomorrow’s winner will claim the seat in November. State Senate President Pro Tempore Jeremy Moss (D-Southfield) is favored over three opponents.

District 13, anchored in Detroit, again features Congressman Shri Thanedar (D‑Detroit) facing a Democratic primary battle. Rep. Thanedar is seeking a third term, and his principal challenger is state Representative Donovan McKinney (D‑Detroit). Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters failed to qualify for the ballot due to insufficient petition signatures but is running as a write‑in candidate. The Thanedar-McKinney contest will be close, with the winner headed to Washington after November.

As these races illustrate, Michigan’s election card is full, and tomorrow night’s coverage will be extensive with the Democratic Senate primary as the headline attraction.

NC-11: Controversy Abounds

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 31, 2026

US House

North Carolina’s 11th District congressional nominee Jamie Ager (D)

Proving that he is the “Mountain Democrat” that he claims to be, North Carolina’s 11th District congressional nominee Jamie Ager recently signed the Promise to America’s organizational statement, which emphasizes six core tenets: “We are capitalist, not socialist; We want safety, not lawlessness; We are responsible, not reckless; We believe government should solve problems, not create them; We are mainstream, not extreme; We are proud, not ashamed of America.”

His decision to do so, however, has caused political turbulence. While the Promise to America message resonates in much of western North Carolina, it has drawn criticism in Asheville – the district’s largest city and the center of regional liberal politics.

North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District borders South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee and sits along the Great Smoky Mountain range, which is part of the Appalachian Mountains that stretch from Canada to Alabama.

The 11th CD encompasses all or parts of 13 counties, with Buncombe County – home to Asheville – comprising more than one‑third of the district’s population. Buncombe is twice as large as the next biggest county, Henderson. Its importance is clear: while Edwards won re‑election districtwide with 57 percent in 2024, he received only 36 percent in Buncombe County.

Ager must therefore take seriously any base problems he faces in what must be his strongest area because the rest of the district is ruby red.

Under the state’s new congressional map, NC‑11 is the weakest of the 11 districts designed to elect a Republican. Dave’s Redistricting App rates the seat at 51.9R – 45.8D, and President Trump carried it in 2024 with a 54.2 – 44.7 percent margin over Kamala Harris.

Historically, these numbers suggest that a Republican congressional incumbent should win re-election in the mid to high 50s, which two‑term Rep. Chuck Edwards (R‑Flat Rock/ Asheville) has done. This year, however, the district will see a more intense campaign.

Ager’s challenges, however, may pale in comparison to Rep. Edwards’ recent difficulties. The Congressman is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for alleged improper relationships with young female staffers, including providing two with personalized handguns, taking one on a trip to Las Vegas, and giving personal gifts to several other female staff members. In reference to the pink and blue handgun gifts, Rep. Edwards, a licensed firearms dealer before entering Congress, claims they were for personal protection.

The Congressman and his wife own six McDonald’s restaurants, all of which are being sold. Mrs. Edwards has said the couple wants to devote more time to public service, though the sale may also reflect the widening fundraising gap between Edwards and Ager. According to the June 30 Federal Election Commission financial disclosure report, the Democrat holds $2.2 million in his campaign account compared to the incumbent’s $468,000.

Controversy surrounding the district’s congressional incumbent is nothing new for this western North Carolina constituency. Edwards, then a state Senator, came to Congress in the 2022 election by defeating scandal-plagued freshman Rep. Madison Cawthorn. He defeated Rep. Cawthorn by 1,384 votes in garnering 33.4 percent of the vote over Cawthorn and six other Republican candidates. North Carolina is a runoff state, but the threshold is only 30 percent, so heading to a secondary election in the Tar Heel State is a rare occurrence.

NC‑11 will be a major Democratic target this year. While Ager’s Promise to America stance may create friction within the party’s far‑left base, it is likely to be received positively throughout most of the district. Conversely, Edwards’ ethics troubles will not be. Expect to hear much more about this race when political prime time begins immediately after Labor Day.

Georgia Special Election to Runoff;
SD Gov. Rhoden Nominated

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 29, 2026

GA-13

Marcye Scott (D), daughter of the late Congressman David Scott.

In April, 12‑term Rep. David Scott (D‑Atlanta), the brother‑in‑law of legendary Atlanta Braves star Hank Aaron, passed away at age 80, leaving Georgia’s Atlanta‑area 13th District vacant. Before his service in Congress, Scott served five terms in the state Senate and four in the Georgia House of Representatives.

In last night’s special election to fill the remainder of the current term, the late Congressman’s daughter, Marcye Scott (D), placed first among three Democratic and two Republican candidates. She fell short of the 50 percent threshold to win outright, receiving 46 percent of the vote, which sends her and state Sen. Everton Blair (D‑Stone Mountain), who finished second with 37 percent, to an Aug. 25 special general election.

State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn) won the regular Democratic primary and is the party’s nominee for the November general election. Given the district’s strong Democratic lean, Clark will win the seat in November. She chose not to run in the special election, knowing that she will be sworn into office when the 120th Congress convenes in January. Clark is a prohibitive favorite over Republican nominee Jonathan Chavez.

Georgia’s 13th District wraps around the eastern side of Atlanta and touches six counties: Rockdale in full, and parts of Clayton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, Henry, and Newton. The district is solidly Democratic, with a 68.9D – 29.5R partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App). Its population is 72.2 percent minority, including a 51.4 percent Black voting age population. It is one of four Atlanta‑metro districts with a majority‑Black population.

The Georgia legislature will enter a special session after the 2026 election to redraw its congressional map in response to the US Supreme Court’s Callais v. Louisiana ruling, which eliminates federal protection for majority‑minority districts. Under the ruling, aligned with the Constitution rather than the affected sections of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, race may no longer be a factor in drawing district boundaries.

As a result, the Atlanta‑area map will be significantly reconfigured. While many metro districts will still contain large minority populations due to regional demographics, the current configuration of four majority‑minority districts is unlikely to remain intact. The 13th District, which sits on the metro’s outer ring and spans multiple counties, is particularly likely to undergo major changes, and could conceivably receive a new district number for the 2028 cycle.

With the Scott vacancy now headed to a runoff, three other House seats remain vacant. The California district of resigned Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) will be filled on Aug. 18. No special elections have yet been scheduled to replace resigned Reps. Tony Gonzales (R‑TX) and Sheila Cherfilus‑McCormick (D‑FL).

South Dakota – Governor

In the Mount Rushmore State’s Republican gubernatorial runoff last night, Gov. Larry Rhoden secured the 2026 GOP nomination with a decisive 71–29 percent victory over businessman Toby Doeden.

In the June 2 primary, Doeden was a surprise first‑place finisher, while Gov. Rhoden narrowly edged at‑large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R‑Mitchell) for second place and the right to advance to the runoff. Under South Dakota law, a runoff between the top two finishers is required if no candidate receives at least 35 percent of the vote. In the primary, Doeden claimed 30.6 percent, followed by Rhoden at 25.2 percent, Johnson at 23.4 percent, and state House Speaker Jon Hansen at 20.8 percent.

Gov. Rhoden ascended to the governorship at the start of 2025 when then‑Gov. Kristi Noem (R) resigned to accept a federal appointment as Homeland Security Secretary. Before winning the Lieutenant Governor’s position on Noem’s 2018 ticket, Rhoden served 16 years in the state legislature – 10 in the House and six in the Senate. In 2014, he ran unsuccessfully for the US Senate, losing the Republican primary to current Senator and former Governor Mike Rounds.

Now, as the official Republican nominee, Gov. Rhoden is well positioned for November and will easily defeat former state Sen. Dan Ahlers (D) and win the Governorship in his own right.

Montana Senate:
The Democrats Stiff Their Nominee

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Senate

Montana Senate Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) announced yesterday that it will not fund Montana Senate Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, who won the primary on June 2 with just under 44 percent of the vote against four opponents.

DSCC executive director Devan Barber said in an interview with the Semafor organization that “the DSCC partners with viable campaigns who have a path to victory, which Ms. Bankhead does not.”

Part of the reason for the party apparatus’ funding decision is because Bankhead publicly attacked the party structure for not previously supporting her campaign. Obviously, Bankhead’s strategy of publicly complaining about lacking support did not gain her favor with the party leaders.

The Democrats’ Montana dilemma extends beyond having an obstinate nominee, however. Former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar is running as an Independent and performs significantly better against Republican nominee Kurt Alme, a former US Attorney, than does Bankhead. With both Bankhead and Bodnar on the ballot, Alme holds a clear advantage.

A new poll from Tavern Research illustrates the situation. The Tavern survey (July 23-27; 517 likely Montana general election voters; online) finds Alme leading both Bodnar and Bankhead on an isolated ballot test, 49-27-24 percent.

In a hypothetical one‑on‑one race between Alme and Bodnar, the Republican leads only 51-49 percent (the absence of undecideds suggests respondents were pushed to choose). When Bankhead is tested head‑to‑head with Alme, the Republican’s advantage expands to 59-41 percent.

The problem for Bodnar and the Democrats is that Bankhead, as the party nominee, will remain on the ballot regardless of whether she receives institutional party support. Complicating matters further, Libertarian pharmacist Kyle Austin is also a qualified candidate.

In a full ballot test including Alme, Bodnar, Bankhead, and Austin, the Republican leads 49-25-24-2 percent, respectively. With all four candidates appearing on the ballot in November, the placement structure clearly favors Alme.

This situation mirrors developments in Nebraska, where Democratic leaders prefer to support an Independent rather than their own nominee. In Nebraska, the national Democratic leaders have a compliant Senate nominee and a Democratic state party that is willing to step aside for Independent Dan Osborn.

Cornhusker State Democratic Senate nominee Cindy Burbank last week withdrew from the race before the final ballot placement deadline so her name will not appear on the November ballot.

With both Osborn and Bodnar, these “Independents” would caucus with the Democrats as do Independent US Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME), thus explaining the party’s interest in backing the Nebraska and Montana Independents.

In Montana, however, Democratic leadership failed to clear the field for Bodnar. As a result, even though Alme is not yet polling as strongly as Republican strategists would prefer, the inability to consolidate support behind an Independent/Democratic fusion candidate effectively guarantees Alme the six‑year Senate term – even if he falls short of majority support.

Alme’s standing is likely to strengthen as the general‑election campaign intensifies and voters become more familiar with him.

It is worth recalling that as the filing deadline approached in March, Sen. Steve Daines (R), who had already filed for re‑election, reversed course and withdrew his candidacy. Standing beside him at the Secretary of State’s office was Alme, who filed for the seat within minutes of the deadline.

The maneuver frustrated many GOP and conservative activists who felt deprived of an open Republican primary. Therefore, the Republican nominee must continue to mend intra-party political fences.

Close Race Watch: NY-17

Dave’s Redistricting App shows NY‑17’s partisan lean at 52.9D – 46.1R. (Click on image to go to Dave’s Redistricting App interactive map.)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 27, 2026

US House

One of the key national congressional races to determine the House majority lies in Upstate New York, stretching between White Plains and Poughkeepsie, and by every measure a swing political district.

New York’s 17th Congressional District features a competitive contest between two‑term incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler (R‑Pearl River) and former National Security Council staff member Cait Conley, who easily won a crowded Democratic primary on June 23. Conley captured 51.4 percent of the vote against four opponents, though turnout was surprisingly low: just 27,228 Democrats participated, compared to 37,004 in the 2022 midterm primary.

Conley, who also earned the Working Families Party ballot line, is a West Point Academy graduate (which is located in the 17th CD) who served 16 years on active duty, deploying six times to combat zones in Iraq and Afghanistan. A decorated Army officer, she earned three Bronze Stars before joining the National Security Council staff.

Rep. Lawler, a political moderate who also carries the New York Conservative Party endorsement and ballot line, first won the seat four years ago after a term in the state Assembly. He scored the biggest upset of the 2022 cycle when he defeated then‑Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who at the time chaired the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Rep. Lawler won re‑election in 2024 with a 52.1 – 45.8 percent margin over former Westchester County Congressman Mondaire Jones (D). In the same election, President Trump narrowly lost NY‑17 by a 49.9 – 49.3 percent margin. The district is more Republican‑leaning than New York: statewide, President Trump lost to Kamala Harris 55-43 percent. According to Dave’s Redistricting App, NY‑17’s partisan lean is 52.9D – 46.1R, compared to the statewide lean of 58.9D – 40.0R.

An earlier FM3 Research survey conducted for the House Majority PAC (June 27–July 1; 509 likely voters) just after Conley’s Democratic primary victory, found the opposite: the new Democratic nominee ahead 51-45 percent. Taken together, the ballot test data points to a toss‑up race.

The co/efficient poll also revealed interesting underlying data in that within the 17th District polling sample both Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) posted lower favorability scores than President Trump. According to the co/efficient ratings, Gov. Hochul holds a 36:49 favorable to unfavorable ratio, and Mayor Mamdani registers 37:53. In contrast, President Trump recorded a 44:51 ratio.

The co/efficient poll also highlighted concern about the Democratic Socialists of America’s recent primary victories in New York City. Sixty‑three percent of respondents said they are “concerned about the rise of socialism and the DSA candidates.”

Conley did not run as a DSA candidate, but Rep. Lawler is expected to attempt to link her to these nominees during the general‑election campaign. Among unaffiliated voters – likely the decisive voting bloc – 64 percent expressed concern about socialism, and Lawler held a 15‑point lead within this group.

NY‑17 includes Rockland and Putnam counties and parts of Westchester and Dutchess counties. Rockland and Westchester together account for 72 percent of the district’s population. The most populous communities lie in the southern portion of the district, including Mount Pleasant, New City, Ossining, and Peekskill.

According to the US Census Bureau, the 17th District’s voting‑age population is 65.8 percent White, 18.4 percent Hispanic, 9.3 percent Black, and six percent Asian. The average household income is $123,436, and the average housing unit cost is $635,500.

In the Eastern time zone, the NY‑17 race will be closely watched on election night as an early indicator of national House trends.

Biggs Wins Primary for Governor; Other Arizona Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Five-term Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), as polling correctly predicted, easily won the Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary last night defeating fellow Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) with more than 70 percent of the vote. Rep. Biggs will now challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs who faced no opposition in her Democratic primary.

With Arizona becoming politically purple, we can again expect another close Governor’s race result. In 2022, Hobbs, then Arizona’s Secretary of State, won a razor-thin 50.3 – 49.6 percent victory over Republican Kari Lake.

Arizona has no Senate election this year, and at least three of the state’s nine House races will be highly competitive in November.

AZ-1 – Open Seat

On the Republican side, former NFL placekicker Jay Feeley – boosted by President Trump’s endorsement – defeated state Rep. Joseph Chaplik (R Scottsdale) and technology company executive John Trobough. When all the votes are counted, Feeley will garner approximately 50 percent of the party vote.

While a large portion of the Democratic establishment was lining up behind former news anchor Marlene Galan Woods, even though Dr. Amish Shah defeated in her in the 2024 Democratic primary and held incumbent David Schweikert to a four-point victory margin in the general election, it will again be Dr. Shah advancing into the general election. The final vote count projection suggests that Dr. Shah will attract in the neighborhood of 42 percent support opposite three other Democratic candidates.

Expect another tight 1st District race to unfold in the general election cycle.

AZ-5 – Open Seat

The other major Republican primary comes in Rep. Biggs’s open congressional district race. Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb shook off a sex scandal to defeat Chandler construction company owner Daniel Keenan with 58 percent of the vote at this writing.

The 5th District is safely Republican, so Lamb should easily top the new Democratic nominee, nurse Elizabeth Lee, who recorded a landslide victory over her two opponents.

General Election Competition

Aside from the competitive Governor’s race and other statewide campaigns, at least three GOP-held congressional districts are going to draw a great deal of national attention.

The 1st District, as covered above, promises to remain in toss-up mode all the way to election day. Republicans have a small edge in voting history, but the 1st District could easily slip to the Democrats in November. Expect an expensive and hard-hitting campaign to dominate the Phoenix metro political airwaves. Republicans performing better than Democrats in the primary turnout battle will also boost the new GOP nominee, Feeley.

In the northeastern 2nd District, expect both second-term incumbent Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) and former Navajo Nation president and 2022 congressional nominee Jonathan Nez to again wage strong and expensive campaigns. Rep. Crane won the 2024 version of this contest with a 55-45 percent victory, but the rematch will likely be closer. Rep. Crane, however, still remains the favorite.

From the Phoenix-anchored 4th District, four-term Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix) was an easy 68 percent Democratic primary winner last night and will have little trouble winning a fifth term in November.

The southeastern 6th CD will feature a bare majority winner as two-term Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) again faces a difficult re-election campaign in a politically marginal congressional district. His 2026 opponent will be retired Marine Corps Sgt. JoAnna Mendoza (D) who will attempt to flip the seat to the Democratic column. Both Rep. Ciscomani and Mendoza were unopposed in yesterday’s primary. Like the 1st District, this campaign will be in toss-up mode until the final vote is tabulated.

In the remaining districts, Reps. Yasamin Ansari (D-Phoenix), Adelita Grijalva (D-Tucson), Abe Hamadeh (R-Phoenix), and Paul Gosar (R-Bullhead City) will all coast to re-election in November.

Arizona Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 20, 2026

Beginning with this election cycle, Arizona has permanently shifted its primary from early August to late July; therefore, tomorrow marks the close of the state’s 2026 primary voting period.

Tomorrow’s election features a Republican gubernatorial contest where the winner will challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Congressional Districts 1, 2, 5, and 6 also host major action.

Each race synopsis below begins with listing the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation and the 2024 election result.

Governor – Katie Hobbs
DRA Partisan Lean – State of Arizona – 50.1R – 47.9D
• 2022 Governor Result: Hobbs: 50.3 – 49.6 percent

Gov. Hobbs is unopposed in the Democratic primary, while the Republican side features four candidates. The GOP battle, however, appears to be a runaway for Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who holds a commanding advantage over Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and two minor candidates.

The most recent poll, from Next Gen P (July 8-9; 1,707 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online), sees Rep. Biggs leading Rep. Schweikert by a lopsided 66-10 percent margin. The polling averages similarly find Biggs holding an average 48-point lead when paired with Rep. Schweikert.

For the general election, another close result is expected.

AZ-1 – Open Seat

DRA Partisan Lean: 50.9R – 47.5D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Schweikert: 51.9 – 48.1 percent

The 1st District contest is the marquee primary for both parties, with each featuring a highly competitive nomination battle. On the Republican side, former NFL placekicker Jay Feeley – boosted by President Trump’s endorsement – appears to be the favorite. Feeley has been outspent, however. According to the June 30th Federal Election Commission disclosure report, he has expended just over $1.7 million in his campaign, while self funding businessman John Trobrough has spent slightly more than $3.3 million. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik’s (R Scottsdale) disclosure reveals expenditures of just over $475,000, yet he held the early polling advantage.

Democrats are also facing a competitive race. Somewhat unexpectedly, party leaders are coalescing around former news anchor Marlene Galan Woods, even though Dr. Amish Shah defeated her in the 2024 primary and then came within two percentage points of unseating Rep. Schweikert. Galan Woods has slightly outspent Dr. Shah in this campaign, $1.6 million to $1.4 million.

AZ-2 – Rep. Eli Crane

DRA Partisan Lean: 53.3R – 44.4D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Crane: 54.5 – 45.5 percent

This year’s 2nd District general election will feature a rematch between Rep. Crane, who is seeking a third term, and Jonathan Nez, the 2024 Democratic nominee and former Navajo Nation president. Both candidates are unopposed in their respective primaries.

The 2026 campaign is likely to be even more robust than their 2024 contest, when the two combined for more than $12 million in spending. According to the June 30 Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports, Rep. Crane and Nez have again raised substantial sums and currently hold $2.8 million and $1.9 million in their campaign accounts, respectively. The race is expected to be competitive, continuing the intensity of their prior matchup.

AZ-5 – Open Seat

DRA Partisan Lean: 58.5R – 39.6D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Biggs: 60.4 – 39.6 percent

Rep. Andy Biggs’s gubernatorial run has left this safe Republican seat open, producing a primary that initially featured 1st District candidate Jay Feeley and former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Feeley’s move to the 1st District, after trailing Lamb badly in early polling, appeared to leave the former Sheriff in control of the race. A sexual oriented scandal, however, has significantly damaged Lamb, who nonetheless retains former President Trump’s endorsement.

Chandler construction company owner Daniel Keenan has mounted a credible, self funded challenge, outspending Lamb $1.6 million to just under $1 million. Keenan has leaned heavily on the Lamb scandal in his campaign messaging.

Recent polling shows a major split: Remington Research Group (July 5-7; 650 likely Republican primary voters) finds Keenan edging ahead of Lamb, 42-40 percent, suggesting a toss-up race rating. Pulse Decision Science (June 29-July 1; 400 likely Republican primary voters), however, reports a very different picture, placing Lamb at a dominant 61-27 percent advantage.

This has become one of the election cycle’s more intriguing Republican primaries. Tomorrow’s winner will be well positioned for the general election.

AZ-6 – Rep. Juan Ciscomani

DRA Partisan Lean: 50.9R – 47.1D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Ciscomani: 50.0 – 47.5 percent

Both party nominations are settled, as Rep. Ciscomani and retired Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza are unopposed for the Republican and Democratic nominations, respectively. Since the 2021 Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission members drew the new 6th District, the area has consistently produced highly competitive general election results.

The 2026 Ciscomani–Mendoza rematch is expected to continue the close-election pattern. The Tucson-anchored AZ-6 race is again positioned to become a nationally watched contest that will attract substantial outside support for both candidates. Another hard fought campaign appears likely, with a close finish again expected.

Close Race Watch: Pennsylvania

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 17, 2026

PA District sizes & locations are approximate representations. Click on the image or here to see full interactive map at Dave’s Redistricting App.

The Pennsylvania US House races will go a long way toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress. Of the state’s 17 House races, four are majority determinative, and each feature a vulnerable Republican incumbent seeking re-election.

PA-1

Five-term US Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) is perennially vulnerable. He’s in one of three districts in the country that voted for Kamala Harris yet elected a Republican to the House. Rep. Fitzpatrick has been able to score victory after victory in his Bucks County-anchored CD averaging 54.7 percent of the vote over his five elections, far exceeding the district’s partisan lean (51.8D – 46.3R – Dave’s Redistricting App calculations).

Prior to Rep. Fitzpatrick initially claiming the seat in the 2016 election, the Congressman’s brother, Michael Fitzpatrick, had held the seat for four non-consecutive terms. After spending 10 years on the Bucks County Commission, Michael Fitzpatrick was elected to the House in the 2004 election but was defeated for re-election in 2006. He would then regain the seat in 2010 and serve three consecutive terms. He did not seek re-election in 2016, yielding to his brother. Michael Fitzpatrick passed away from cancer in 2020. The Fitzpatrick family has a strong history in Bucks County politics.

This year, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick faces another strong candidate in Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie, who won the Democratic primary with 64.9 percent of the vote. According to the latest June 30 Federal Election Commission disclosure reports, Harvie has raised just over $2 million with an excess of $794,000 cash-on-hand post primary. Rep. Fitzpatrick is in a commanding financial position, however, with over $6.3 million in his campaign account.

The 1st District will host another repeat campaign in 2026. Rep. Fitzpatrick is again favored for re-election, but a potentially adverse political climate for Republicans at the time of the election again puts this seat in the vulnerable category.

PA-7

The Keystone State’s 7th District, which is anchored in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton area, is like the 1st CD in that we always see close elections. In various iterations of this CD, the Republican candidates, former Reps. Pat Toomey, who would later become a US Senator, Charlie Dent, and now freshman Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie), have won a combined 11 of the past 14 congressional elections.

The last four, however, with former Rep. Susan Wild (D) winning three times, have been very close. In those four campaigns, the winning candidate has never exceeded 53.5 percent with an average of 51.7 percent. In 2024, Rep. Mackenzie unseated Wild with 50.5 percent of the vote.

This year, former Rep. Wild did not return to seek a rematch. The new Democratic nominee is former Pennsylvania Firefighters Union president Bob Brooks, who won a four-way Democratic primary with 41.0 percent of the vote. In the first post-primary published poll, from the Democratic firm GBAO (June 29-July 2; 550 likely PA-7 voters), Brooks claimed a 47-43 percent lead over Rep. Mackenzie.

With a Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) calculated partisan lean of 50.2D – 47.5R, the 7th District will again return a very close finish in November.

According to the new FEC financial disclosure reports, Rep. Mackenzie holds a $2.9 million cash-on-hand advantage over Brooks’ $1.08 million.

PA-8

To the northeast of the 7th District lies the Scranton-anchored 8th CD where freshman US Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township) seeks a second term after defeating six-term US Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) in 2024. The Congressman’s 2026 Democratic opponent is Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti. Both Rep. Bresnahan and Mayor Cognetti were unopposed in their respective primaries, but 20,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in the May nominating election.

Though the 8th CD slightly leans Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 50.0D – 47.9R), the district is more Republican than the other eastern PA districts. In fact, President Trump has run strongly here, carrying the seat in all three of his elections and posting a 54-45 percent win here in 2024 under the present district lines. Among the four competitive Pennsylvania US House districts, the 8th has perennially been President Trump’s strongest performer.

This will be another expensive race. The new FEC reports (reporting deadline: June 30) find Rep. Bresnahan with $2.6 million in his campaign account and Mayor Cognetti holding the advantage with $3.4 million, both taking advantage of having unopposed primaries.

Two Democratic pollsters, Lake Research Partners and Impact Research, conducted mid-June surveys and each largely arrived at the same conclusion. Each showed a basic dead heat with Mayor Cognetti leading by two and one percentage points, with both candidates scoring in the high 40s.

PA-10

The Harrisburg/York-anchored 10th District features a rematch between seven-term US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg) and former television news anchor Janelle Stelson. The 2024 election ended with a close Perry victory of 50.5 – 49.3 percent while President Trump was scoring a 52.0 – 46.8 percent here win over Kamala Harris.

Of the four competitive PA districts, the 10th is the only one where the DRA partisan lean favors the Republicans (50.7R – 46.8D). The 2022 court drawn redistricting map changed this district from one that heavily favored a conservative Republican to a politically marginal seat anchored in the state’s capital city of Harrisburg.

The 2024 race featured heavy spending with Stelson outspending the incumbent, $6.4 million to $4.6 million. According to the new FEC reports, Stelson again has the cash-on-hand advantage, $4.5 million to $2.8 million. Once more, we can expect heavy outside spending from both parties to attempt to influence the outcome.

The negatives for both candidates are that the Congressman, a former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, is more conservative than the average constituent, and that Stelson, who anchored a television news desk in Lancaster, outside of the 10th District, is a carpetbagger.

Expect another close outcome in this highly competitive central Pennsylvania congressional district. Together, these four tight PA congressional districts could determine which party wins the House majority.

Close Races to Watch

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Continuing our progress reports on competitive federal contests with flip or upset potential, today’s update reviews new polling from one Senate race (Michigan) and three House campaigns, one each in Florida, Nevada, and Washington.

Michigan Senate

The Michigan Democratic primary has undergone significant change within the past 10 days. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow’s (D-Royal Oak) withdrawal leaves Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services Department director Dr. Abdul El‑Sayed competing for her supporters.

Two new polls, conducted during the same period, present sharply different pictures of the race. The Glengariff polling firm that regularly surveys the Michigan electorate (for the Detroit News; July 8-11; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) posts Rep. Stevens to a 48-41 percent lead over Dr. El-Sayed.

The Data for Progress firm, however, sees a much different result. Their survey (for the American Priorities Super Pac; July 10-14; 614 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) projects Dr. El-Sayed as holding a double-digit lead of 54-41 percent. Taken together, the surveys show a net 20‑point swing in the candidates’ respective leads, underscoring how unsettled the primary remains.

Florida’s 14th District

Florida Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) has held a safely Democratic Tampa anchored seat for 20 years, but she now faces the most difficult campaign of her career because of the new Sunshine State redistricting map.

According to Dave’s Redistricting App, the new configuration carries a 55.5R – 43.4D partisan lean – a net shift of nearly 31 points toward the GOP when compared with the 2021 map.

Florida’s primary is Aug. 18, so Castor will not know her Republican opponent for several weeks. A new St. Pete Polls survey (July 14-15; 469 likely FL-14 voters; automated calling and text) projects Rep. Castor to be holding a lead over the two most likely individuals favored to win the GOP primary.

According to the St. Pete data, Rep. Castor leads both former state Rep. Mike Beltran and current state Rep. Kevin Steele (R-Hudson), one of whom is likely to top the field of eight Republican hopefuls. Isolated with Beltran, the Castor advantage is 46-38 percent. If Rep. Steele becomes the party nominee, the early result is an almost identical 46-39 percent.

These early numbers likely reflect Castor’s strong name recognition. Once Republicans choose a nominee and the general election begins in earnest, the race is expected to tighten. FL‑14 is a must‑win for Republicans if they hope to maintain their narrow House majority.

Nevada’s 2nd District

Controversy surrounds Republican nominee David Flippo, a retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel, in Nevada’s safest GOP seat. Critics highlight his recent political history: Flippo ran for Congress in NV‑4 in 2024 and for the state Assembly in a North Las Vegas district in 2022 – both far from the northern, Reno‑anchored NV‑2.

Despite the 2nd District’s strong Republican partisan lean (53.8R – 40.5D, per Dave’s Redistricting App), the new GOP congressional nominee trails in a recent ballot test. A Wedgewood Polls survey (July 9-12; 350 likely voters; online panel) shows former state House Majority Leader Teresa Benitz‑Thompson (D) leading Flippo 48-46 percent.

While the margin suggests a statistical tie, Flippo’s standing represents a significant underperformance in a district that should yield a mid- to high-50s Republican victory in November.

Washington’s 3rd District

Southwest Washington remains one of the GOP’s strongest non‑redistricting conversion opportunities. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D–Skamania County) has twice surprised Republicans by winning a district with a 52.0R – 45.6D partisan lean, but she now faces a more formidable challenger.

State Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R–Chehalis) is the likely general‑election finalist emerging from the Aug. 4 jungle primary. A new Emerson College survey (July 8–10; 500 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) forecasts Sen. Braun as holding a slight edge over Rep. Perez, 45-44 percent.

In the jungle primary, Sen. Braun leads the nine‑candidate field with 26 percent, while Rep. Perez posts 25 percent – a major warning sign for the incumbent. Once the primary concludes, this race is poised to become one of the cycle’s major battles.

Watching Close Congressional Races


By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 10, 2026

US House

While Republicans seem to be on the uptick in the Senate races considering the Democrats’ recent debacle in Maine and with consensus nominee Mike Rogers performing well in Michigan to possibly neutralize a probable Republican loss in North Carolina, recent polling in several key US House races suggest the Democrats have at least a modest early advantage in several majority-critical contests.

The redistricting wars have improved Republicans’ chances of retaining the House majority, yet the party candidates still must win the new seats the revised maps created and flip enough Democratic districts to counterbalance expected losses elsewhere.

Early general election polling suggests that several GOP incumbents and nominees face tough challenges, though much is yet to happen before any final result is recorded.

Five highly competitive campaigns have recently released ballot test data.

Alabama’s 2nd District

The new Yellowhammer State congressional redistricting map restores AL‑2 to its traditional southeast corner location with a Republican profile. The new plan effectively dismantles freshman Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D‑Mobile) plurality‑minority seat. Still, Impact Research’s June survey (June 22–25; 400 likely voters) shows a competitive race unfolding: state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) leading Congressman Figures just 45-44 percent.

Marques is not yet the GOP nominee – Alabama’s congressional primaries for the newly constructed congressional districts occur on Aug. 11 – so Republicans expect their numbers to strengthen once the nomination election is settled.

New York’s 17th District

NY‑17 remains one of the most precarious Republican‑held seats in the country, being one of only three districts carried by Kamala Harris that elects a GOP member. FM3 Research’s late‑June survey for the House Majority PAC (June 27–July 1; 509 likely voters) shows Democratic nominee Cait Conley leading Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) 51-45 percent. Given New York’s recent hard left shift and the district’s underlying presidential lean, Rep. Lawler faces a difficult path to re‑election.

North Carolina’s 1st District

NC‑1 was the centerpiece of the state’s 2026 GOP redistricting strategy, which was designed to convert the seat to the GOP. A late‑June GQR poll for Democratic Snow Hill Rep. Don Davis (June 22–28; 500 likely voters) shows the Congressman trending ahead 45-41 percent over Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who nearly defeated him in 2024 within a more Democratic 1st District.

In 2024, polling understated Buckhout’s strength: GQR’s final survey showed Rep. Davis leading 50-39 percent, but he won only with a 49.5 – 47.8 percent margin. Recent cycles have often seen Democratic polling numbers hold while Republican support is undercounted. Buckhout trailing by four points in the early general election phase shows an improvement though, and her actual standing is therefore likely stronger than the topline suggests.

Pennsylvania’s 7th District

Turning to Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley, freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie/Allentown) was an upset winner in 2024 when he defeated three-term Democratic incumbent Susan Wild. The 2026 race promises to be a difficult hold for the new Congressman.

The GBAO polling firm (for House Majority PAC; June 29-July 2; 550 likely PA-7 general election voters) finds Democratic challenger Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter and union leader who developed a strong coalition strategy to win the Democratic primary in May, currently leading Rep. Mackenzie, 47-43 percent.

Wisconsin’s 3rd District

In western Wisconsin, FM3 Research’s June poll (June 20–25; 535 likely voters), released in early July, shows Democrat Rebecca Cooke leading Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) 50-46 percent. Cooke lost narrowly in 2024 (51.3 – 48.6 percent), and WI‑3 again appears poised for a spirited campaign and another close finish.

These five contests are genuinely competitive and could break either way as November approaches. They represent some of the most consequential US House races and will be central to determining which party ultimately controls the chamber next January.