Category Archives: House

Murphy Wins Run-off in NC-3

By Jim Ellis

North Carolina state Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville)

July 11, 2019 — North Carolina state Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville) scored an easy 60-40 percent victory over Dr. Joan Perry in the special Republican congressional run-off Tuesday night, thus becoming the party nominee in a special general election to succeed the late Congressman Walter Jones, Jr. (R-Farmville) who passed away in February.

The run-off campaign was particularly low key. Neither candidate raised nor spent a huge amount money throughout the entire nomination process. Rep. Murphy will have expended approximately $600,000, while Dr. Perry only reached the $400,000 mark. Both, however, saw independent expenditures conducted on their behalf.

Originally, it appeared the conservative groups would be lining up behind Dr. Perry, and particularly pro-life groups, but when House Freedom Caucus chairman Mark Meadows (R-Skyland/Asheville) publicly endorsed Rep. Murphy the ideological lines appeared to break down.

Murphy carried 12 of the district’s 17 counties, and scored big in his home county of Pitt, with an 82-18 percent victory margin that accounted for more than half of his district-wide 6,972 vote win from a low turnout of 35,916 Republican run-off ballot casters.

Dr. Perry rebounded in her own home county of Lenoir, registering 75 percent of the vote there and cutting Murphy’s district vote margin by 1,482 votes. Though Murphy won 70 percent of the district’s counties, several were by very close margins: 4, 26, 61, 93, 127, and 227 votes.

Now, we move to the Sept. 10 special general election. Back in the April 30 primary, former Greenville Mayor Allen Thomas won the Democratic primary outright and automatically advanced into the general election. Now he and Rep. Murphy will battle for the seat in a campaign that should favor the new Republican nominee.

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The Amash Factor

By Jim Ellis

Michigan Rep. Justin Amash

July 9, 2019 — Michigan Rep. Justin Amash (I-Cascade Township) officially left the Republican Party as the 4th of July approached, but what does his decision mean for the 3rd District’s political future?

Rep. Amash has served his whole career as a Republican, being first elected in an open congressional seat back in 2010 after winning a state House district in 2008. Though he left the GOP, he did not affiliate with the Libertarian Party, which many expected. Still, he has the option of running for that party’s presidential nomination even if he does not serve in Congress as a Libertarian.

But Amash’s decision clearly changes the congressional race. If he ultimately decides to seek re-election, his decision to leave the GOP is somewhat curious, at least from an electoral perspective. At this point, already four Republicans have announced, with at least three of them clearly credible. Two are sitting state representatives and one an heir to the Meijer retail store chain that features more than 200 stores predominantly in the Midwest. With no run-off required under Michigan election law, a large competitive field would have played to Rep. Amash’s favor since the contest would have been a base vote nomination election.

Should he decide to seek re-election as an Independent, then all bets might be off. Under the same premise that a crowded field could have helped Amash win a Republican primary, at least a three-way general election candidate field could conceivably allow him to win re-election in similar plurality fashion. But, either major party candidate might have the same advantage making this a wild card race.

Additionally, the three-way set-up could put what is typically a reliable Republican seat in play for the Democrats. Should Amash and the eventual Republican split the right-of-center base, it is conceivable that the Democratic nominee could find him or herself in position to score the plurality victory.

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Is Sen. Markey (D-MA) Vulnerable?

By Jim Ellis

Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey (D)

July 8, 2019 — The Politico news site ran a story last week befor the Fourth of July break quoting a Massachusetts consultant saying that Sen. Ed Markey’s seat “is there for the taking,” and predicted the state’s extremist Democratic Party faction will make defeating him a major objective in the guise of freshman Rep. Ayanna Pressley’s (D-Boston) successful challenge to then-veteran Rep. Mike Capuano (D) in the last election.

An early June Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll is cited as the source for concluding that Sen. Markey is having some political trouble. In our analysis of the study, we see some Markey vulnerability, but it is inaccurate to say that signs are pointing to the senator possibly losing his re-nomination campaign.

The Suffolk/Globe poll (June 5-9; 600 registered Massachusetts voters, 513 self-identified Massachusetts Democratic (207) or Independent voters (306), 370 Democratic responses to the US Senate ballot test) is the same one that drew some national publicity because it projected home state Sen. Elizabeth Warren posting only 10 percent support in the presidential Democratic primary ballot test, as former Vice President Joe Biden led the field with a 22 percent preference score. It is not a stretch to predict that this race would likely poll differently if re-tested today.

The main reason that Sen. Markey is viewed as vulnerable relates to his 44 percent preference among the Democratic respondents on the senatorial ballot test. While this number is indisputably low for an incumbent, we must also view the results in context. His two announced opponents, labor union attorney Sharon Liss-Riordan and businessman and author Steve Pemberton, both only record a support level of five percent. Though Sen. Markey should reasonably be commanding majority support, he is still almost 40 points ahead of his closest known competitor.

The upstarts who want to see Markey challenged generally hope one of the top name Democrats will jump into the race, such as Boston Mayor Marty Walsh or US Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Newton), but it is highly unlikely that either of these men will run.

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Intra-Party Primary Challenges On Both Sides Emerge This Week

By Jim Ellis

July 3, 2019 — If you thought the 2020 cycle might feature a smaller number of primary challenge campaigns than we’ve seen in recent election years, then Monday might have changed your opinion. No less than six combined intra-party incumbent opposition campaigns were announced, or at least publicly contemplated.

After seeing the results of some key primaries in the past couple of election cycles, such as the now famous Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 2018 victory over veteran Rep. Joe Crowley in New York, it’s hard to discount any early intra-party candidate at face value. But, it appears, at least today, that all of the potentially challenged incumbents begin their re-nomination campaigns as clear favorites.

In South Dakota, state Rep. Scyller Borglum (R-Rapid City), an engineer and theologian who was just elected to the legislature in November, announced that she will oppose first-term senator and former governor Mike Rounds in next year’s Republican primary. This challenge is particularly curious since no Democrat has yet even come forward to battle Sen. Rounds. The odds of Borglum finding a way to deny her opponent re-nomination look particularly long, but the contest should be watched for indicative early happenings.

Rep. Danny Davis (D) has represented the downtown Chicago and Oak Park areas in Congress since the beginning of 1997. Before that, he served on the Chicago City Council or Cook County Commission for another 18 years. But his long service has not made him immune from enduring a primary challenge. Attorney Kristine Schanbacher announced her opposition to Davis in the March Democratic primary. The congressman is a prohibitive favorite to again win re-nomination. Two other minor Democratic candidates had declared earlier.

Indiana’s 3rd District will feature a “family affair.” Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City/Ft. Wayne) largely won the safe Republican seat in the 2016 GOP primary against former Wisconsin state senator Pam Galloway and four others when he captured over one-third of the vote in a plurality victory scenario.

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Wyoming: Political Picture
Will Take Time to Emerge

By Jim Ellis

Rep. Liz Cheney

June 19, 2019 — Sen. Mike Enzi’s (R) retirement announcement last month will ignite a political firestorm in the Equality State, but not just yet. Because the state is small and the candidate filing deadline is almost a year away (May 29), the races will take time to develop. Both the Senate campaign and at-large House contest, assuming we see an opening in the latter situation, will become major political battles, at least as far as the Aug. 18, 2020 Republican primary is concerned.

The focal point centers around at-large Rep. Liz Cheney’s (R-Wilson/Jackson) intention. Should she run for the Senate, as most believe she will, her path to the nomination is likely to be encumbered. Her jumping into the Senate contest will also open Wyoming’s lone House seat for the second time in three election cycles.

In addition to Cheney, a former at-large US representative and ex-state treasurer is reported to be testing the waters for the Senate seat. Additionally, a two-term former governor is looming large on the political horizon.

Cynthia Lummis (R) served in the House for four terms after her original election in 2008 and did not seek re-election in 2016. Lummis averaged 64.8 percent in her four elections, and 68.8 percent in three re-elections as the incumbent. She served eight years as state treasurer, in addition to a combined 14 years in the Wyoming House and Senate. The former congresswoman is reportedly making calls to assess her chances and if she decides to enter the open Senate contest, we could see she and Cheney squaring off for the GOP nomination.

Billionaire Foster Friess, who finished a relatively close second in the 2018 Republican gubernatorial primary, is also being mentioned as a potential candidate. While not committing to the race, Friess has also not ruled out running.

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Indiana Rep. Susan Brooks to Retire

By Jim Ellis

Rep. Susan Brooks represented Indiana’s 5th District, a reliably Republican district over the years.

June 18, 2019 — The 2019-20 House open seat count reached double-digits as Indiana Rep. Susan Brooks (R-Carmel) announced late last week that she would not seek a fifth term next year.

With Brooks retiring and Montana at-large Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman) announcing that he will run for governor, the open seat count grows to 10 including the two North Carolina special congressional elections that will be filled on Sept. 10.

Most news outlets were reporting the Brooks announcement as a surprise, in large part because she chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee’s candidate recruitment operation. But, rumors of Brooks moving on from the House have circulated before, and she did attempt to become governor when incumbent Mike Pence left office after being selected as Donald Trump’s running mate. There was also speculation that she could leave the House next year in order to run for state attorney general.

Immediately after Pence left his Hoosier State gubernatorial re-election effort to campaign for vice president, an Indiana Republican Party committee was empowered to choose a new gubernatorial nominee. Rep. Brooks, along with fellow US Rep. Todd Rokita, declared for the special nomination, but the party committee members instead chose then-Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb who would go onto win the general election and now stands for re-election in 2020.

Rep. Brooks says her retirement decision is primed because of a desire to begin devoting her life to interests outside of politics. She will, however, continue in her NRCC role to lead the party’s recruitment apparatus in serving the balance of this current term.

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Is Michigan Rep. Justin Amash
Seeking a Political Exit Strategy Should He Run for President?

By Jim Ellis

Michigan Rep. Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids)

June 13, 2019 — The Michigan Information & Research Service (MIRS) released an independent poll just a couple days ago from the Practical Political Consultants organization (June 5-9; 335 likely MI-3 Republican primary voters) that finds western Michigan Rep. Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids) trailing his announced 3rd Congressional District Republican primary opponent, state Rep. James Lower (R-Greenville), by a lopsided 49-33 percent count.

After Rep. Amash became the only Republican to side with the Democrats’ informal impeachment caucus over whether to bring proceedings against President Trump, speculation became more rampant that the five-term Michigan congressman would seek the Libertarian nomination for president. The new poll and his action earlier in the week of resigning from the Freedom Caucus and its leadership fuels more speculation that he will jump into the presidential contest.

Many are arguing that Amash would have an effect upon the national election to the point of potentially costing President Trump victory, or at the very least, the state of Michigan, but such an outcome is far from determined.

The Libertarian presidential nomination has some value in that the party can qualify for the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. It is the only political entity aside from the Republican and Democratic parties that has such an ability. Jill Stein, the 2016 and 2012 Green Party presidential nominee, appeared on the ballot in 45 and 38 states, respectively.

However, just how much of a factor are the individuals who represent the minor parties on the presidential ballot? Former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson was the Libertarian nominee in both 2016 and 2012. He has already said he will not be a candidate in 2020. In 2012, his national vote total was 1.27 million. Four years later, his aggregate vote number soared to just under 4.5 million. But, was that due to Johnson himself, or is the Libertarian ballot position, regardless of the candidate’s name associated with it, simply the best place for disaffected voters to cast a ballot?

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