Category Archives: FLORIDA

Wrapping Up Redistricting

2022 Louisiana Congressional Redistricting Map (click on above map or here to go to an interactive version: Louisiana)

By Jim Ellis

April 1, 2022 — Looking at Wednesday’s redistricting finishing action in Louisiana and beyond, the only outstanding states in terms of drawing new congressional lines are Florida, Missouri, and New Hampshire. A total of 397 of the 435 districts nationwide have been completed, though many will eventually face legal action.

According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, of the 397 districts, a total of 22 seats rate Even to D+5, with an additional 18 CDs categorized as D+6 through D+9. Of these combined 40 seats that statistics find at least slightly favoring the Democrats, Republicans hold seven. Conversely, the new maps yield a total of 14 Even to R+5 Republican districts, with another 16 rated as R+6 through R+9. In these 30 GOP-leaning seats, Democrats actually hold almost half, for a total of 13.

Members of the opposite party also hold five seats of 10-point partisan spreads or greater. Democrats claim three of the newly configured strong Republican seats in Arizona (Rep. Tom O’Halleran), Maine (Rep. Jared Golden) and Tennessee (Rep. Jim Cooper – retiring), while GOP members hold similarly stout Democratic CDs in California (Rep. David Valadao) and New York (Rep. John Katko – retiring).

It is clear the major competitive 2022 races will come from this aforementioned combined political universe of 75 seats.

Louisiana

For only the third time in state history, the Louisiana legislature voted to override a governor’s veto. The state Senate joined the state House Wednesday in voting to bypass Gov. John Bel Edwards’ (D) rejection of the new congressional map. The plan largely keeps the 5R-1D delegation split intact, with little change from the current map.

Gov. Edwards vetoed the bill, saying that a second black district can be drawn in and around the major population centers of New Orleans and the capital city of Baton Rouge. The override means the new map becomes law, but lawsuits can certainly be filed against the plan. Unless and until such is done and a court strikes the map down, the Louisiana 2022 redistricting cycle is now completed.

Maryland

The Maryland legislature is complying with the state judge’s schedule to return a less partisan map to the court. Senior Judge Lynne Battaglia last week struck down Maryland’s new congressional map as an “impermissible partisan gerrymander.”

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Redistricting News – Ohio; Florida

By Jim Ellis

March 31, 2022 — Two long awaited key redistricting situations became clearer Tuesday, as the important electoral states of Ohio and Florida took action. While the Ohio congressional plan may finally be set for this election, the Sunshine State map, while still not close to finalization, is trending toward resolution.

Ohio

Click on map or here to go to: Interactive Ohio Congressional Redistricting map.

The state of Ohio has had the rockiest redistricting path this year, as the legislature and state Supreme Court have been passing and rejecting congressional and state legislative district maps since early in the year.

Last week, the high court, from which people were waiting for a new decision over the congressional map before them for several weeks, surprised the Democratic plaintiffs by informing them that they would have to file a new lawsuit. The justices explained that they had already issued a final ruling on the first map, hence the process would have to begin again with this second installment.

It now appears that the legislature-passed congressional map currently before the court will be used for the 2022 election. The briefing schedule was set for the new lawsuit, but the submission deadline is two months beyond the state’s May 3 primary. Therefore, the new congressional map looks to remain in place for 2022.

The new map would create a swing open 13th District south and east of Cleveland that would likely have been where Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) would have run for re-election had he stayed in the House. On this map, the other member not seeking re-election, Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-Rocky River), would have been paired with GOP Rep. Bob Gibbs (R-Lakeville) in a new strongly Republican 7th District that encompasses the western Cleveland suburbs.

The two incumbents in the most competitive situations are Reps. Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati) and Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) who both will face electorates favoring Democrats.

The lawsuit against the congressional map could well move forward during the latter part of this year, but any changes resulting from related legal action would likely mean a new draw for the 2024 election. After a string of favorable congressional map court rulings for Democrats, the lack of further judicial action in Ohio looks to benefit the Republicans, at least for the short term.

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Redistricting Update Notes: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania

Florida Redistricting:

Gov. DeSantis Queries High Court: Attempting to solve the disagreement between Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and some leadership members from the state legislature, the state’s chief executive has asked the Florida state Supreme Court for an advisory opinion about the legality of dividing the majority minority 5th District that stretches from Tallahassee to Jacksonville. A brand new Michigan state Supreme Court ruling (see below) that affirmed the state’s redistricting commission move to divide their minority seats in Detroit could provide some precedent for the Florida high court.

Michigan Redistricting:

State Supreme Court Rejects Dem Legislators’ Claim: The Michigan state Supreme Court, on a 4-3 vote, rejected the redistricting challenge of a group of current and past Detroit area African American state legislators late Thursday. The plaintiffs were arguing that the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission members illegally divided many of the minority Voting Rights districts, but a majority of the justices disagreed. Therefore, the Commission-adopted congressional and legislative maps will stand pending further litigation in federal court should the plaintiffs, or others, launch additional legal action.

Pennsylvania Redistricting:

State Supreme Court Assumes Jurisdiction: The Pennsylvania state Supreme Court, known as one of the most politically partisan judicial panels in the country, announced last week that it is claiming jurisdiction of the redistricting case now before Republican judge Patricia McCullough of the Commonwealth Court. At first, this appeared a partisan Democratic move, but the high court then installed Judge McCullough as the special master with the responsibility of drawing the new congressional and state legislative maps.

Pennsylvania lost a seat in reapportionment, so political observers are closely watching this process. The current Pennsylvania delegation features a 9R-9D split, but this was after the state Supreme Court changed the map before the 2018 election, thus allowing the Democrats to gain three seats. The maps are in court because Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf vetoed the Republican legislature’s plans.

Rep. Ed Perlmutter to Retire;
Yesterday’s FL-20 Special

Colorado’s Congressional redistricting map (click on image or here to go to the Dave’s Redistricting App’s interactive Colorado map)

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 12, 2022 — Colorado US Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Arvada) announced Monday that he will not stand for a ninth congressional term later this year, becoming the 26th Democratic House member not to seek re-election in 2022.

The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission changed the 7th District toward the Republicans’ direction meaning Perlmutter, still favored to retain his seat, would have seen a much more competitive general election in addition to representing much more rural territory in the Centennial State’s central region.

CO-7 appears to be the second-most competitive district in the state’s eight-member delegation. Only the new 8th District, which contains a significant portion of the current 7th CD, is more competitive and already considered a toss-up district. Colorado was awarded a new seat in reapportionment largely because of its position as the nation’s sixth fastest growing state during the previous decade according to the 2020 Census Bureau population growth analysis.

The current 7th District lies wholly within Jefferson and Adams Counties, but the new 7th stretches to include parts of ten other counties while retaining only a sliver of its Adams County base. The 7th’s anchor population, more than 521,000 individuals, still resides in Jefferson County, commonly referred to as Jeffco.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statistical site calculates that Democrats historically receive 51.7 percent of the vote as compared to the Republicans’ 43.8 percent in the new 7th CD. The redistricting commission analysis of eight past elections finds the Democrats to have a 6.9 percent advantage in the new district, while winning all eight of the tested contests but generally with small margins.

The FiveThirtyEight statistical site rates the new 7th District as a D+6. Under the previous map, the 7th District was a stronger D+15 and supported President Biden with a 60-37 percent margin.

Prior to his election to Congress, Perlmutter served eight years in the Colorado state Senate. He announced his gubernatorial candidacy in the 2018 election cycle, but withdrew before the filing period concluded and instead ran for re-election.

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Florida Rep. Stephanie Murphy &
New Jersey Rep. Albio Sires to Retire

By Jim Ellis

Florida Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Winter Park)

Dec. 22, 2021 — In a surprising move, three-term Florida US Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Winter Park) announced that she won’t run for re-election next year, becoming the third member of the Florida delegation to leave the House at the beginning of 2023 in addition to the state gaining a new seat in national reapportionment. Not included in the total is the special election to fill the late Rep. Alcee Hastings’ (D-Delray Beach) South Florida 20th District that will conclude on Jan. 11.

The Murphy move means the Sunshine State will host four open congressional elections next year, three of which lie in the Orlando metro area. In addition to Congresswoman Murphy, Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando) in an adjacent district is also leaving the House. She is challenging Sen. Marco Rubio (R). Furthermore, the state’s new 28th District will likely be placed in the Orlando metroplex. The lone non-Orlando area open seat is in the Tampa Bay area as Rep. Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg) is foregoing re-election to again run for governor.

Rep. Murphy was elected in 2016, defeating then-Rep. John Mica (R) in a 51-49 percent result after the Florida state Supreme Court made the 7th District more Democratic during a mid-decade redistricting order. She averaged 56.5 percent of the vote in her two subsequent re-election campaigns and holds a seat on the powerful Ways & Means Committee.

New Jersey Rep. Albio Sires (D-West New York)

Also, New Jersey Rep. Albio Sires (D-West New York) announced Monday that he will not seek a ninth full term in the House. The congressman was first elected in a concurrent 2006 special and general election replacing then-Rep. Bob Menendez (D) who had been appointed to the Senate. At the time, the eastern New Jersey district that borders the Hudson River across from New York City was numbered CD-13. It was changed to number 8 in the 2011 redistricting plan.

Prior to his election to Congress, Sires served in the New Jersey General Assembly and was the body’s speaker from 2002-06. During the 1995-2006 period, he was the mayor of West New York, and concurrently served in the legislature for most of that time. Prior to a 2006 law banning the practice, it was commonplace for New Jersey mayors to simultaneously hold both their municipal position and serve in the legislature.

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