Category Archives: Election Analysis

Harris to Skip Traditional Event; Trump Declines Debate; Tracking Poll Trends; MT-1 Remains Close

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

VP Kamala Harris: Skipping Catholic Al Smith Event — The attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris failing to participate in public events or news conferences intensified over the past weekend when her campaign confirmed that she will not attend the annual Al Smith Catholic fundraising dinner in New York on Oct. 17.

It has become a tradition that the presidential candidates attend this function together, but the Harris campaign is deciding to buck a trend that has been in effect for 40 years. We can expect a Trump campaign attempt to use her decision to drive a wedge between Harris and Catholic voters.

Donald Trump: Rejects Oct. 23 Debate — It appears the first debate between Harris and former President Donald Trump will be the last. While Harris declined to participate in a Fox News debate that Trump accepted, now the Republican nominee has declined CNN’s invitation to debate Harris on Oct. 23. Trump says that date is too late for a forum since so many people will have already cast a ballot through early voting.

Senate

Tracking Polls: Ohio and Texas Flip Leaders — Tracking polls are conducted not so much to capture where a race stands, but rather to detect which candidate the race trend favors over a sustained period. Therefore, we see two major long term tracking polls suggesting that the underdog candidate in each important Senate contest is currently moving upward.

In Texas, the Morning Consult survey research firm is conducting a nationwide series of Senate and presidential race tracks in the key states. In Texas, the MC data (Sept. 9-18; 2,716 likely Texas voters; online) finds Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) pulling one point ahead of incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 45-44 percent. The Activote firm conducted a five-week track of the Ohio Senate race (Aug. 16-9/22; 400 likely Ohio voters) and sees GOP challenger Bernie Moreno moving ahead of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) by two percentage points, 51-49 percent.

In neither case do these tracking results necessarily mean that the incumbent is now trailing, only that their opponents’ campaigns are on an upswing.

House

MT-1: Remains Close — The western 1st Congressional District of Montana was newly created after the 2020 census due to population growth, and its first election delivered a closer than expected final tally. In that contest, then-former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congressman Ryan Zinke (R) under-performed with his 50-46 percent win over former US Olympian Monica Tranel (D). The latest 2024 poll again featuring the two contenders shows another similarly close result.

The Noble Predictive Insights survey (Sept. 11-14; 432 likely MT-1 voters) finds Zinke leading Tranel by only a 47-43 percent margin with the Libertarian candidate taking three percentage points. While the Montana Democratic Party failed in their lawsuit to disqualify the Libertarian Party from the statewide ballot, in this race the presence of a minor party candidate might be helping their contender. While Rep. Zinke is still favored, it appears we are headed for another tight finish.

Polling Histories: On Repeat for 2024?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 20, 2024

Polling

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Media stories are covering the recently released Selzer & Company Iowa poll, from a research entity proven as the Hawkeye State’s most accurate pollster. According to the Selzer survey (Sept. 8-11; 656 likely Iowa voters; live interview), former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is 47-43 percent, which is being cast as a tightening of the race in what has proven to be a strong Trump domain.

Researching the commensurate Selzer Sept. 17-19 Iowa poll from the 2020 election, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the ballot test projected a tie between Trump and candidate Joe Biden. Trump would then move on to post an eight-point victory in Iowa in the succeeding election.

Should a similar pattern exist for 2024 in a state that typically breaks late for one candidate or the other, it is possible that Trump’s impending Iowa victory could be even stronger than his win four years ago, considering he is in better shape today when compared to his 2020 dead-heat standing.

Many states feature reliable polling histories and trends that repeat. Iowa surveys tend to routinely show tight races early with a late break. In another example, Republicans tend to under-poll in the southern states, but over-poll in New Jersey and among African-American voters.

Georgia, which is an all-important state in this year’s presidential election, tends not to follow the pattern of the other southern states. Here, the polling tends to be particularly accurate. Therefore, current polls finding Trump and Harris locked into what appears to be a dead heat should be considered correct.

Looking at some of the key battleground states, all are producing tight margins between Harris and Trump. This means we are far from seeing the 2024 race decided, and either candidate is in a position to win the election.

Appearing to be the closest states among the key battlegrounds are Nevada and Pennsylvania, which the Real Clear Politics statistical projections forecast as being dead-even when looking at the accumulation of polls conducted right after Harris was installed as the Democrats’ replacement nominee through the present time.

The same formula suggests that Trump has the slightest average lead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Harris posts tight average leads in Michigan and Wisconsin.

In Nevada, 11 polls have been conducted since Harris became the Democrat nominee. She leads in six of the 11, and Trump, five. In 2020, looking at this same late July through mid-September period, Joe Biden had an average lead of six percentage points from a dozen polls conducted during the studied period and led in all 12 of the surveys. Yet Biden would only carry the state by less than one percentage point (0.7 percent) in the succeeding November vote. If this polling pattern remains consistent in 2024, then Trump would be well positioned for a Silver State upset.

Many believe that Pennsylvania is becoming the ultimate deciding state, although there are plausible ways that both candidates can win the national election without carrying the Keystone State. Still, whichever candidate does win there, that candidate will score a huge bonus on their electoral college victory projection map.

Since July, 15 Pennsylvania polls have been conducted and the two contenders are virtually even in support. Of the 15 surveys, Trump has led in seven and Harris, five. Three of the polls have resulted in a flat tie. Four years ago, Biden, again within the commensurate late July to mid-September period, had an average lead of four percentage points within this aggregate group of research studies. Furthermore, he led in 11 polls with one tie. Trump did not post an advantage in a single poll during the commensurate interval.

The Pennsylvania election culminated in a Biden victory spread of 1.3 percentage points, which again suggests that Trump gained support in the critical closing weeks. Though it wasn’t enough for him to win in 2020, such a repeat performance would be enough to carry the state in 2024, and with that a likely national victory would occur.

Alsobrooks Continues to Lead in Maryland Senate Race; Missouri Shock Poll Released; Democrats Staked to Large Leads in NH; 2026 Rumors Already Abound in Ohio

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024

Senate

Angela Alsobrooks (D)

Maryland: Alsobrooks Continues to Lead — Emerson College and The Hill newspaper released the results of their latest Maryland US Senate survey (Sept. 12-13; 890 likely Maryland voters; multiple sampling techniques). According to the polling results, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) again tops former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) by a spread beyond the polling margin of error. The ballot test finds Alsobrooks’ advantage at 49-42 percent.

Hogan, while still enjoying very strong personal favorability ratings, even among Democrats, must overcome what will be one of the largest landslide victories for Vice President Kamala Harris of any state. Thus, seeing potentially a 30-point Democratic win at the top of the Maryland ballot makes it extremely difficult for any Republican to overcome such a wave in their down ballot elections.

Missouri: Shock Poll Released — While the Missouri Senate race had been largely ignored for most of the year, we now see three polls released almost simultaneously. The other day, we covered a GQR survey for the Lucas Kunce (D) campaign (Sept. 6-12; 645 likely Missouri voters) which produced a surprisingly close 50-46 percent margin in Sen. Hawley’s favor. (See: Missouri Shock Poll)

Two more surveys followed, each with very different results. Change Research (Sept. 11-13; 1,237 registered Missouri voters; online) sees the Hawley lead at 46-41 percent. Emerson College, polling for The Hill Newspaper (Sept. 12-13; 850 likely Missouri voters; multiple sampling techniques) produced a much different result. This ballot test posts Sen. Hawley to a 12-point lead over Kunce, 52-40 percent.

Based on Missouri’s voting history within the past 12 years, Sen. Hawley still should be favored, but it is clear this race will be drawing increasing attention as Democrats attempt to expand the Senate map.

House

New Hampshire: Democrats Staked to Large Leads — After the late Sept. 10 primary election, St. Anselm’s College went into the field to test both New Hampshire US House seats, the Eastern 1st District featuring incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), and the open 2nd District, the seat from which Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is retiring.

The St. Anselm’s polls (Sept. 11-12; 1,111 likely NH-1 voters; 1,130 likely nh-2 voters; online) find Rep. Pappas leading former executive councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott (R) by 12 percentage points, 50-38 percent. In the 2nd District, former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander, who was an easy Democratic primary winner, led Republican Lily Tang Williams by a similar 49-38 percent margin. At this point, Democrats appear primed to retain both of New Hampshire’s congressional seats.

Governor

Ohio: 2026 Rumors Already Abound — Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term in 2026, and already political observers are pointing to meetings and movements from potential candidates. Involving themselves in the Springfield, Ohio Haitian migrant controversy, both former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) and ex-representative and 2018 US Senate candidate Jim Renacci (R) are scheduling meetings to encourage positive dialog within the community. Both are considered potential Republican gubernatorial candidates.

Other potential candidates are Lt. Gov. John Husted (R) and Attorney General Dave Yost (R), along with Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Jennifer Brunner, Columbus Mayor Andy Ginther, and Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval.

Michigan Senate Polls Show Tightening Race; Missouri Shock Poll; Ohio Super PACs Level Financial Field; Nebraska Abortion Initiatives

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

Michigan: Wide Ranging Poll — Since the beginning of September, we’ve seen the release of four non-tracking public polls testing the open Senate race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) who served in the House for 14 years.

The Cygnal, YouGov, co/efficient, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies research firms were in the Michigan field from Aug. 28 – Sept. 9 with sample sizes ranging from 400 to 1,077 Michigan registered and likely voters.

While Rep. Slotkin held significant leads through the month of August, the September polls show a different support level. Slotkin leads in all of the polls, but her margins range from a high of seven points to a low of just a one-point spread that two of the pollsters detected. The four-poll average showed a Slotkin lead at just over three percentage points.

Missouri: Shock Poll Released — The Missouri Senate race has been quiet all year, but a new survey finds the contest closing to within four percentage points. Conversely, two August polls — from YouGov and the Remington Research Group — saw Sen. Josh Hawley (R) leading attorney and Iraq and Afghan War veteran Lucas Kunce (D) with margins of 11 and 15 points. A new GQR survey for the Kunce campaign, however (Sept. 6-12; 645 MO likely voters), finds the margin at 50-46 percent in Sen. Hawley’s favor.

The chances are strong that this latter survey is an optimistic outlier, but the release of such data suggests that the Missouri Senate race is likely to attract greater attention as the election grows closer.

Ohio: Super PACs Equalizing Campaign Spending — According to the latest available Federal Election Commission reports that will soon be updated (filing deadline is Oct. 15), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) has enjoyed a huge fundraising and spending advantage over Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. Though June 30, Sen. Brown had raised $52.8 million compared to Moreno’s $15.8 million with a spending advantage of $43.4 million to $11.2 million.

Super PACs, however, lessened the resource deficit for Moreno, but now one entity is set to make a further expenditure to help the challenger. According to the OpenSecrets.com organization, the money spent to support Republicans and oppose Democrats in this Buckeye State Senate race was $65 million versus $23 million to support Democrats and oppose Republicans. Now, the crypto currency aligned Super PAC, Defend American Jobs, has upped its spending to a reported $27 million to aid Moreno. Originally, the group announced, according to The Down Ballot campaign analysis website, that it would spend $12 million.

With the Ohio race getting closer, expect much more money to find its way into this race. The most recent poll (Morning Consult tracking survey; Aug. 30-Sept. 8; 1,558 likely Ohio voters; online) finds Mr. Moreno closing to within three percentage points of Sen. Brown, 46-43 percent.

States

Nebraska: Competing Abortion Initiatives — The Nebraska state Supreme Court ruled at the end of last week that two competing abortion-related initiatives could both remain on the ballot. Lawsuits had been filed stating that the two initiatives, one that would allow abortion until fetal viability and under other circumstances, and another that would enshrine Nebraska’s current law that disallows abortions after the first trimester, violated the state’s single-subject initiative law.

The Justices ruled that the initiatives both meet all legal definitions. Addressing the matter as to what happens if both competing measures pass, the ruling is the initiative receiving the most votes would supersede the other.

Iowa Poll Shows Trump’s Lead at Four Points; Two Incumbents Trail in California; Close Race in VA-2

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump ahead in Iowa.

Iowa: Selzer & Company Poll Shows Trump’s Lead at Four Points — Media stories are covering the newly released Selzer & Company Iowa poll, which has proven to be the state’s most accurate pollster. According to the Selzer survey (Sept. 8-11; 656 likely Iowa voters; live interview), former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is 47-43 percent, which is being cast as a closing of the race in what has proven to be a strong Trump state.

Researching the Selzer Sept. 17-19 Iowa poll in 2020, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the ballot test showed a tie between Trump and candidate Joe Biden. Biden would then move onto post an eight-point victory in the succeeding election.

House

CA-22: Rep. Valadao Trailing — California’s Fresno area 22nd District is the second-most Democratic seat that elects a Republican in the country. Therefore, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) is always in a difficult re-election campaign. The Normington Petts research firm returned a late August survey (part of a six district series conducted for the House Majority PAC; 8/25-27; 400 CA-22 likely voters) that finds Rep. Valadao trailing former state assemblyman and 2022 opponent Rudy Salas (D) by two percentage points, 46-44 percent.

The analysis indicates that voters oppose Project 2025, feel it would be a “rubber stamp” for a new Trump Administration, and concentrates on the abortion issue. This suggests the series is in the push poll category. It is highly doubtful that in one of the lowest turnout districts in the country respondents would be familiar enough with Project 2025, a publication from the Heritage Foundation and not any candidate or the Republican Party, to harbor such a negative opinion. It is clear, however, that this race lies in the toss-up category as this poll shows.

CA-41: Strange Polling Results — There is little doubt that Republicans lost some momentum across the board in late August, but a newly released early September survey in California’s 41st District can’t be right. RMG Research conducted a series of online polls for US Term Limits over a long sampling period. The CA-41 poll (Sept. 5-12; 450 likely CA-41 voters; online) finds 16-term Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) trailing former federal prosecutor and 2022 Democratic nominee Will Rollins by a 41-35 percent split.

Calvert, who has represented the Riverside area for 32 years and defeated Rollins 52-48 percent in 2022, has to have more support than 35 percent in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7. While this is again a competitive race, such a poll result, also with an unusually high undecided figure, should be considered as an outlier.

VA-2: Two Polls Show Close Race — A pair of congressional polls were released for the Tidewater area’s 2nd Congressional District. Both pollsters find close results, which is no surprise for a district that typically features tight campaigns. On the ballot is Virginia freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) and businesswoman Missy Cotter Smasal (D). For the House Majority PAC — a Super PAC with ties to the Democratic leadership — Impact Research reports their results in a poll conducted in late August and part of a six district series (Aug. 20-25; 500 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) that gives Rep. Kiggans only a one point edge, 48-47 percent.

A more recent survey gives Kiggans some better news. Christopher Newport University tested the 2nd District electorate (Sept. 6-10; 792 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) and they find the congresswoman in stronger shape with a 45-40 percent edge.

Senate Races Recap

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 16, 2024

Senate

Now that primary season is officially over, it is a good time to review each important Senate race standing:

Arizona

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) / Kari Lake (R)
   Number of Polls Since Nomination: 14
Gallego Leads: 13 / Lake Leads: 0 / Ties: 1 / Average Spread: 7.0

• Gallego Dollars Raised to Date: $32,349,689
• Lake Dollars Raised to Date: $10,371,230

Trending: Democrat

Florida

Sen. Rick Scott (R) / Ex-Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)
   Number of Polls Since Nomination: 6
Scott Leads: 6 / Mucarsel-Powell Leads: 0 / Ties: 0 / Average Spread: 3.7

• Scott Dollars Raised to Date: $30,047,375
• Mucarsel-Powell Dollars Raised to Date: $14,373,409

Trending: Republican

Maryland

County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) / Ex-Gov. Larry Hogan (R)
   Number of Polls Since Nomination: 4
Alsobrooks Leads: 3 / Hogan Leads: 0 / Ties: 1 / Average Spread: 4.5

• Alsobrooks Dollars Raised to Date: $12,473,586
• Hogan Dollars Raised to Date: $7,003,571

Trending: Democrat

Michigan

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) / Ex-Rep. Mike Rogers (R)
   Number of Polls Since Nomination: 15
Slotkin Leads: 14 / Rogers Leads: 0 / Ties: 1 / Average Spread: 6.5

• Slotkin Dollars Raised to Date: $24,083,670
• Rogers Dollars Raised to Date: $5,364,155

Trending: Democrat

Minnesota

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Royce White (R)
   Number of Polls Since Nomination: 3
Klobuchar Leads: 3 / White Leads: 0 / Ties: 0 / Average Spread: 9.0

• Klobuchar Dollars Raised to Date: $18,972,718
• White Dollars Raised to Date: $132,721

Trending: Democrat

Missouri

Sen. Josh Hawley (R) / Lucas Kunce (D)
   Number of Polls Since Nomination: 2
Hawley Leads: 2 / Kunce Leads: 0 / Ties: 0 / Average Spread: 13.0

• Hawley Dollars Raised to Date: $22,492,767
• Kunce Dollars Raised to Date: $11,193,778

Trending: Republican

Montana

Sen. Jon Tester (D) / Tim Sheehy (R)
   Number of Polls Since Nomination: 10
Tester Leads: 1 / Sheehy Leads: 8 / Ties: 1 / Average Spread: 3.7

• Tester Dollars Raised to Date: $43,775,556
• Sheehy Dollars Raised to Date: $14,065,647

Trending: Republican

Nebraska

Sen. Deb Fischer (R) / Dan Osborn (I)
   Number of Polls Since Nomination: 4
Fischer Leads: 3 / Osborn Leads: 0 / Ties: 1 / Average Spread: 7.2

• Fischer Dollars Raised to Date: $6,663,796
• Osborn Dollars Raised to Date: $1,647,634

Trending: Republican
(Latest Movement: Independent)

Nevada

Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) / Sam Brown (R)
   Number of Polls Since Nomination: 18
Rosen Leads: 18 / Brown Leads: 0 / Ties: 0 / Average Spread: 8.2

• Rosen Dollars Raised to Date: $31,924,824
• Brown Dollars Raised to Date: $9,719,083

Trending: Democrat

New Mexico

Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) / Nella Domenici (R)
   Number of Polls Since Nomination: 7
Heinrich Leads: 7 / Domenici Leads: 0 / Ties: 0 / Average Spread: 7.8

• Heinrich Dollars Raised to Date: $10,149,858
• Domenici Dollars Raised to Date: $3,623,274

Trending: Democrat

Ohio

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) / Bernie Moreno (R)
   Number of Polls Since Nomination: 8
Brown Leads: 8 / Moreno Leads: 0 / Ties: 0 / Average Spread: 4.6

• Brown Dollars Raised to Date: $52,802,158
• Moreno Dollars Raised to Date: $15,822,576

Trending: Democrat
(Latest Movement: Republican)

Pennsylvania

Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) / David McCormick (R)
   Number of Polls Since Nomination: 44
Casey Leads: 43 / McCormick Leads: 0 / Ties: 1 / Average Spread: 12.9

• Casey Dollars Raised to Date: $31,831,902
• McCormick Dollars Raised to Date: $18,063,786

Trending: Democrat
(Latest Movement: Republican)

Texas

Sen. Ted Cruz (R) / Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas)
   Number of Polls Since Nomination: 18
Cruz Leads: 18 / Allred Leads: 0 / Ties: 0 / Average Spread: 6.7

• Cruz Dollars Raised to Date: $59,159,421
• Allred Dollars Raised to Date: $38,433,727

Trending: Republican

West Virginia

Gov. Jim Justice (R) / Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott (D)
   Number of Polls Since Nomination: 2
Justice Leads: 2 / Elliott Leads: 0 / Ties: 0 / Average Spread: 33.5

• Justice Dollars Raised to Date: $3,680,407
• Elliott Dollars Raised to Date: $252,261

Trending: Republican

Wisconsin

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) / Eric Hovde (R)
   Number of Polls Since Nomination: 13
Baldwin Leads: 13 / Hovde Leads: 0 / Ties: 0 / Average Spread: 6.1

• Baldwin Dollars Raised to Date: $36,476,704
• Hovde Dollars Raised to Date: $16,788,769

Trending: Democrat

Post-Trump/Harris Debate Polling; New Ads Debut; Alabama Governor’s Race News; Pollster Accuracy Rankings Released

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 13, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Donald Trump: Fabrizio Releases Post-Debate Polling Memo — Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio conducted a post-debate flash poll (Sept. 11; 1,893 likely voters from seven swing states; online) and compared the results to their previous poll conducted “last week,” before the debate (5,600 likely voters from seven swing states; online), and claim tha actually gained support after the forum.

Post-debate, the ballot tests from the seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) found Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 48-46 percent when minor party candidates were included and 50-47 percent from a head-to-head Trump vs. Harris question. The pre-debate data found the two tied at 46 percent apiece in the multi-candidate configuration and 48-48 percent from the head-to-head question.

Though these numbers certainly cut against the grain of stated post-debate perceptions, the full effect will be felt next week when we see the next round of publicly released polling.

House

Congressional Leadership Fund: Launches Series of Ads — The Congressional Leadership Fund, an outside Super PAC with ties to the House Republican leadership, unleashed a series of well researched and targeted ads in nine competitive congressional districts. Each ad is customized for the individual target and not what are commonly called “cookie cutter” messages where the target and verbiage are interchangeable. Democratic organizations use the latter technique to attack Republicans on the abortion issue.

The Democratic targets are: Kirsten Engel (AZ-6 against Rep. Juan Ciscomani), Rudy Salas (CA-22; Rep. David Valadao), Rep. Yadira Caraveo (CO-8; GOP candidate Gabe Evans), former Rep. Mondaire Jones (NY-17; Rep. Mike Lawler), Rep. Pat Ryan (NY-18; GOP candidate Alison Esposito), Josh Riley (NY-19; Rep. Marc Molinaro), Rep. Marcy Kaptur (OH-9; GOP candidate Derek Merrin), Janelle Bynum (OR-5; Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer), and Rep. Matt Cartwright (PA-8; GOP candidate Rob Bresnahan).

Governor

Alabama: A Potential Tuberville Gubernatorial Candidacy? — Speculation abounds that first-term Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) may eschew running for re-election in 2026 and instead attempt to succeed GOP Gov. Kay Ivey who will be ineligible to seek a third term.

In response to a question about this possibility, Sen. Tuberville was non-committal but said that he is “tired of getting kicked in the teeth being in the [US Senate] minority.” His view of the Senate may change if the Republicans capture the majority in November, however.

Should Sen. Tuberville decide to enter the open race for governor, he would only have to clear what is expected to be a crowded GOP primary in strongly Republican Alabama. With his strong conservative record, his chances of winning the Republican nomination appear highly favorable.

Another possible scenario, should the senator decide to run for governor, is seeing a primary that isn’t as hotly contested since many of the credible contenders would then opt to run for Tuberville’s open Senate seat.

Polling

FiveThirtyEight: Releases New Pollster Rankings — The FiveThirtyEight data organization released their latest rankings of the nation’s political pollsters, and again paid compliments to the most accurate of the survey research firms.

The number one pollster is the New York Times/Siena College. ABC News/Washington Post was rated second, and Marquette University Law School third. The international online pollster YouGov occupies the fourth slot, which is just ahead of Monmouth University, which rounds out the top five. The first four received perfect 3.0 scores on the 538 scale, while Monmouth was close behind at 2.9.